The Bogoslof update

A year ago there were frequent eruptions of Bogoslof volcano. But over the months, it dropped out of the news, as the eruption quieted down and finally ceased. This brief post is a recoup of what came before, and what the state of the island is now. Bogoslof is one (and sometimes two or three)…

Black Swans and Iceland

Two weeks ago I wrote about statistics and the possibility to predict volcanoes in any way by using statistics. I think that the point was a bit lost, my entire point was to show that it was impossible to in any useful manner predict when an eruption would occur, and also that it is impossible…

When Pinatubo turned the tide

The sea is our fascination. We go out of our ways to find it, and it is where we go for holidays, spending our time lying on the beach. Close to half the world’s population lives within 100 kilometers of the coast. For those who live here, there is a good living to be had,…

Don’t Panic! – Volcanoes, Overdue & Douglas Adams

Time and again we see the statistical fallacy pop up in regards of volcanoes, and then as a letter in the mail, the word “Overdue” is dropped in our mental mailboxes. But, fear not, there is a hero of sanity out there in the form of the greatest philosopher of all time to save us…

The Mayas and their lack of volcanoes

Alberts latest article was a tour de force of the classic view of Mayan collapses, as it has been perpetuated in classic literature. The general idea is that the large downfalls in the Mayan empires would have been caused by large distant eruptions. This is of course an unfair summing up of Alberts quite more…