This may come off as a surprise but the Earth isn’t a sphere, this is a lie forged by the elites to keep us from our true selves, the reality is that our world takes the shape of great rhombicosidodecahedron! Our pathetic brains are incapable of understanding the ∞/0+-5i dimensions in our universe and as such we view the universe with limited capacity. Nature has put a limit on our ability to comprehend reality.
Jokes about impossible math and figures aside, it would seem humanity has a problem with reality. Throughout our history, blatant falsehoods and insanity have been and are still accepted as truth with examples too numerous to list. Even in modern society where information and truth are so readily accessible, you will still see those who cling to nonsense and carry on like they’re enlightened. Pseudo-science, false history, and impractical politics are taking over the globe. It is easy to dismiss these people as (someone nicer might say) ignorant or misinformed. At the top of the brainless belief pyramid is Flat Earth. The current Flat Earth movement is arguably the dumbest group to which anyone can ascribe themselves. Only “ancient astronauts theorists” can rival the dull-minded bastions of the Flat-Earthers. As flat-earth holds the crown of the king of pseudo-science, I believe we can determine why Anti-intellectualism is on the rise by breaking down the beliefs of Flat-Earth.
Flat-earthers believe that there are a thousand years of conspiracy to hide the shape of the Earth to trick the world into denying their true selves. Religious flat-earthers believe that this was in fact a conspiracy to keep men from God while atheist flat-earthers (Yes, they exist) see it as the system gaining complete control of one’s belief. The flat earth model also surmises the existence of infinite land and resources beyond Antarctica which no powerful person wants as they desire to keep the population miserable to control them. All of the governments, religious institutions, corporations, scientists, media organizations, and schools are conspiring to keep this “truth” from the people.
Just some syrup
The crux of the conspiracy is ridiculous, belief in spherical Earth hasn’t stopped anyone from believing in God or any other religion. When Religion dominated society in the Middle Ages, any educated person knew that the Earth was spherical and that belief didn’t stop them from praying or fasting. Some of the Flats would say that society is trying to force people to choose science or God but once again this holds no water. Nearly HALF of scientists believe in some type of higher power or hold some religious affiliation. No one joins or abandons their religion because of the shape of the Earth, looking at threads about those who’ve made their choices, they use their personal experiences, philosophy, and/or morals. In a hypothetical world where Flatties were right, it would still be a failed conspiracy since it failed to complete its mission after 2,000 years.
The top of society has never had such complete control of the populace to brainwash 99.9% of people into believing anything they want. This argument is saying that “they” can brainwash about the shape of the Earth but “they” can’t stop revolutions and protests over far simpler issues. No one in the shadows would gain anything by lying about the shape of the Earth, it fills no pockets and isn’t an effective way of getting power. It’s a thought that no regular person cares about for more than a few seconds. I find it funny that the supposed leader and chief deceiver of the modern push against Flat Earth is NASA. NASA is basically the devil and the most evil of the Government Organizations. Anyone who knows anything about the shady actions of the government knows that NASA ranks pretty low in threat level. Don’t ask the CIA about drugs or woods up north for reference.
Flat Earthers use their own methodology for scientific inquiry called Zeteticism.
Zeteticism is a system of scientific inquiry. The word is derived from the Greek verb ζητέω (zeteo), which means “I seek; I examine; I strive for”. A zeteticist is a person who practises zeteticism. Zeteticism differs from the usual scientific method in that using zeteticism one bases his conclusions on experimentation and observation rather than on an initial theory that is to be proved or disproved. A zetetic forms the question then immediately sets to work making observations and performing experiments to answer that question, rather than speculating on what the answer might be then testing that out, as is instructed by the scientific method.
For example, in questioning the shape of the Earth the zetetic does not make a hypothesis suggesting that the Earth is round or flat and then proceed to testing that hypothesis; he skips that step and devises an experiment that will determine the shape of the Earth, and bases his conclusion on the result of that experiment. Many feel this is a more reasonable method than the normal scientific method because it removes any preconceived notions and biases the formation of a hypothesis might cause, and leaves the conclusion up entirely to what is observed.
Flat Earth Society
The zetetic method is primitive and only useful for the simplest of exercises. First off, no scientifically minded person will form a hypothesis without doing research first. Research always comes first before forming a hypothesis. The grievance that the Zetetic method is supposed to solve is nonexistent. I will rewind time to 2019 and use the Zetetic method for Chiles-Cerro Negro. My question then was why was the volcano having an earthquake swarm? I find that there 2 other volcanoes experiencing unrest in conjunction with the volcano but no evidence of magma ascent. After seismic and deformation fluctuations in 2013-2015, it became stable in 2016. What am I to experiment on? As I have not formed any hypotheses or predictions, shall I test the Hydrothermal systems, Any one of the many faults in the region, or the Magma system as I know any one of them could cause a seismic swarm? As I denied myself the ability to use my own research fully, I would have to fly in blindly testing multiple solutions before I am allowed to conclude anything. A massive waste of time and resources. In reality, I used the scientific method. Looking at the size of the deformation, the region’s history of caldera-forming eruptions, and the characteristics of the earthquakes. I formed my hypothesis that the swarm was the result of a large magma chamber pressurizing. New studies and developments would validate parts of my hypothesis. Two years after the swarm ended in 2020, the volcano went through a dike expansion event and 2 studies came out confirming the existence of a large magma body beneath the volcano.
Science has grown too complicated for the Zetetic method as it is only useful for simple issues like the shape of the Earth. We can use the Zetetic method to prove the Earth is round! Why do the constellations change with longitude? Perform any number of experiments and you’ll find the Earth is round! Flat Earth makes so little sense on a fundamental level that there is no angle where it makes a semblance of sense. Flat Earthers reject gravity and the existence of space to preserve their delusions. The Coriolis effect, plate tectonics, seasons, trade winds, sea currents, solar storms, Ice ages, asteroid impacts, satellites, flight paths, weather patterns, lunar phases, and the consistent shape of the sun makes no sense on a flat Earth. Just for simplicity’s sake, the fact that the two hemispheres see completely different stars disproves the existence of Flat Earth.
Some more syrup
I am not going to waste my time doing a detailed debunk on Flat Earth without a monetary incentive. No amount of arguing or evidence is going to convince the majority of the Flat Earthers of the truth. Is it because they’re stupid though? I’ve been exposed to pseudoscience and pseudohistory for years. I’ve been friends with a lady who is college-educated, she was part of the military as a computer expert. She’s a pretty intelligent woman but she is also an anti-vaxxer. I know a dude who is a skilled nurse who managed to take himself off the streets, he’s helped save numerous lives with his quick thinking and is often considered to be among the best nurses wherever he works. He also believes that primates came into existence 4,000 years ago. This is just a taste of the absurdities that they believe in and despite being competent, and rational in certain areas, they are incredibly ignorant of others and refuse to acknowledge my counters. An idiot could be a nurse but not a successful one like the gentleman and the same goes for the lady who used to do calculus when she was bored. (Couldn’t be me). The problem doesn’t lie in intellect, it lies in disposition.
Contrary to what you might think, The Flat Earth movement does offer something to it’s followers. Just pretend that we’re wrong about the shape of the Earth and it’s actually flat. Then these Flat-Earthers would stand at the top of humanity. The only ones who were able to push past years of programming, whose intellect and sense are so vast that they can easily see through a 2,000-year-long conspiracy, and will lead a movement to challenge the establishment and bring truth to the world. It’s not about truth, Flat-Earth is fiction that puts its tenets as the protagonists without them needing to do anything. Pseudo-science exists to fill voids, voids that are not satisfied with truth. My parents are big users of alternative medicine whose roots lie with desperation. My family suffers from many chronic illnesses, mental issues, Asthma, auto-immune disorders, and epilepsy. In conjunction with our lack of money and the terrible healthcare system, my family has gone into alternative medicine with mixed results. It makes everyone feel less helpless as we live with these issues. I got to the point where my parents thought they could effectively cure my severe to extreme Crohn’s with supplements and diet.
Before I go into a political or misanthropic rant, I’ll conclude. Voids by created anxiety, desire for power, ego, or desperation will give way to false realities built by grifters, idiots, or just plainly evil people. The modern body of knowledge while being nowhere near perfect or infallible has been the greatest defense against these spaces but as reality becomes more grim and the future inspires less hope, the more people will not only reject truth but also the people and systems that message it.
Tallis, November 2024
The picture with the planets and the square is hilarious, Tallis.
They are right, Tallis I swear. I live on the lower side. We still live in trees there as otherwise we would fall off.
I can give you a more simple example of nonsense. Recently I googled anaconda. Is the Green Anaconda a man-eater (the yellow one being about 2-3 m shorter I left out). The Green Anaconda (mostly found in Amazonas and Pantanal) gets to a maximum length of six to seven metres, and there is no single proven case of a specimen having eaten a human being. Simple as it is the shoulders do not fit through the mouth of an anaconda.
Yet there are people who swear online that they have seen specimen of a length of 10-12- metres. Maybe you did too. In a Hollywood movie.
Another matter is the Reticulated Python. Reticulated python has a list of victims online, maybe because Asians are tinier and the animal longer. In Florida you habe the Burmese, no worries. It is annoying though.
Tales of fantastic large animals with an appetite for human flesh are almost always a compelling story. barring those b-movies of course. I find it more funny than annoying.
I think the best thing I saw, was “The Flat Earth Society has members all over the Globe”.
Even the enlightened ones can’t escape globe speak!
According to Snopes, it wasn’t true, although I did see it. Either way it’s still worth it.
The Flat Earth Theory is clearly an insult for the human intelligence. It shows that some people are smart enough to do business with stupid ideas. Theories like this remind to Paranoia Theories, f.e. Alien Conspiracy Theories. They can both be tempting and poisonous.
But you can discuss the lable: Does “Earth” correctly apply to the planet or to the skin of the planet? If “Earth” only applies to the skin (either biosphere or the Earth’s crust), you have a two-dimensional structure on a three-dimensional ball. The skin of Earth is very close to the Flat Earth image.
Historically humans first – during stone age – only saw the two-dimensional Earth. They labeled everything above the Earth (=ground) as “above Earth” and everything below the earth as “subterranean”. The underworld or the hell were thought to be somewhat below the earth. Then scientists in Hellenistic age discovered that the Earth is a ball = planet. So it’s the question whether it was appropriate to use the label for the ground (earth) also for the planet. Is magma below the earth (=ground) or part of the earth (=planet)?
From a biblical perspective you can argue that the planet is the planet of humans. It has an antropomorphic shape, if you search for them and want to believe in them. The Earth-Moon system resembles the partnership of Adam and Eve. These are questions above physics, more applying “onthology”, the old natural philosophy about being.
The fact that a spherical surface is 2-dimensional is not under discussion: this is about the curvature of that shape. Whether you call the surface or the entirety ‘Earth’ does not change the question.
It does seem strange how anti-science has become a movement. People not ‘believing’ in vaccines or laws of thermodynamics (climate) makes no sense whatsoever. Putting them in charge of a country can only end one way.
You have to wonder why the distrust of scientists. I myself have on occasion also had on-line abuse (not often, I am glad to say). People live in different worlds and understand little about each other.
A lot of people view scientists as part of the establishment that is universally hated across the world. It is human nature to view foreign groups as monoliths instead of individuals, Optimistic views on the future are rare and most people know that tough times are coming. The modern way of life is on it’s way out, and is being blamed wholesale for the current issues of the world.
People are selfish, self-absorbed, and delusional. Those who don’t support what brings us comfort are seen as enemies. Of course, those discussing how this dopamine-filled, over-stimulating world isn’t sustainable will be hated. We love our scapegoats but the reality is that it doesn’t matter what religion or the absence of, political system, philosophical ideals, or group of people dominate the world, Humans won’t change,
Scientists themselves are not always blameless.
Yep, MMR.
Just to qualify my statement In case anyone was wo during. There was a published showing that the MMR vaccine caused autism. Most of the authors retracted the paper, but one didn’t. He was ultimately struck off, but it also came to light that he was developing his own rival vaccine. He is now living and practicing in the US, associating with many of the anti axxers and those marketing sodium hypochlorite as a cure for autism. That then became a “treatment” for COVID.
I spent alot of time during the COVID pandemic fighting misinformation. I also saw alot of attacks against the”establishnent” and tried to educate them that they were actually attacking individuals and the effects it had.
I don’t think a lot of people who complain about the establishment actually know what that means. Especially when you look at some of the figures they support
“People are selfish, self-absorbed, and delusional”. Absolutely. And that’s why we survived. Selection pressures made us what we are. In other words, we are as the universe “made” us. Most of humanity is our competition. Their agendas conflict with ours so we resent them or think they’re stupid. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not particularly happy about this way of looking at things, but the fact that it makes you unhappy is no reason to reject a hypothesis that has otherwise not been falsified 😉
A thought provoking article, as usual for this wonderful site.
These anti-science theories are too stupid for homo sapiens. They seem to mirror a general cultural tendency of intellectual decline. We see the same tendency in the increasing inability to really discuss something with different opinions. The current tendency is contrary to the period of Enlightment and Ration (18-19th century).
While the anti-science theories on first view appear harmloess, historically the Antisemitic theories began the same way and were able to justify the Holocaust genocide.
In the realm of Economics we have seen recently that the rejection of science led to nationalistic policies (Brexit, tariffs, …) that clearly increase inflation and depression. If you have the same amount of money, but less things to buy (because of fewer imports), prices will increase and you’ll be poorer.
There is nothing too stupid for humans. Humans are nothing more than an advanced variant of ape. The “enlightenment” was full of BS ideas and hateful propositions that took decades to filter out of the school of science whose ramifications on current culture is still seen today.
This movie showed well the methods of the Brexit movement and how they used irrational passions instead of facts: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt8425058/
Around the time of Brexit the wave of anti-intellectualism rose around the globe.
The human brain needs training just like the legs for cycling or swimming. It is strenuous first before we get the benefits. We see currently how humans (also in universities) avoid anything which challenges the human brain. There is a tendency towards attitude-driven studies instead of good scientific handcraft or reflection.
The anti-science movement goes back a bit further. You could point at the Koch brothers who pushed science denial in the mid-2000’s. Companies have a track record on this, always for commercial reasons: the tobacco industry in the 1970’s, the chemical factories in the 1980’s (about ozone depletion – apparently chemistry depends on money), the coal and oil industry in the 1990’s. But this was the first time it captured a main-stream political party in a main-stream nation. They (including the Koch brothers) are not particularly conservative: they go with the flow since otherwise they’d not make as much money. But moving away from tobacco, ozone-destroying chemicals, fossil fuels, was too much of an existential threat to them.
Companies will go the great lengths to protect their fortunes by denying reality: doing otherwise would be unthinkable. It set up a movement which used advertising strategies and social media to push their causes. Those movements took on a life of their own. The social media companies found they could make a lot of money by allowing people to push fringe theories, and things went weird. Would-be dictators used their methods to secure their power base. Politicians used it to deny facts and tell us not to listen to experts. Hence brexit.
It has given rise to peculiar events. Trump, a democrat with fairly liberal views, captured a conservative party and moved it further to the right. Russia, traditionally using extreme left wing groups, found that right wing groups can be told to support its cause. Left wing parties went from social causes to supporting strangeness. Traditional left-right division no longer works. People happily vote for things that are not in their own best interests.
Change is inevitable. The climate will change, and fast. Fossil fuel will be superseded. The Luddites were fighting a lost cause. But people will try to hold on to things, even when those cannot last. In the end, though, reality does not go away.
There was always a cleavage between the traditional intellectual elites (scientists, teachers, …) and the business elites (capitalists). Both were somewhat liberal, but the first more towards civil rights and the second towards free market economy. Some business men had difficulties with science, if it stood in the way towards profit. Some try to ignore science (and moral), others use their money to buy science.
The neoliberal mode since Reagan/Thatcher led to a development at universities to seek for private money and reduce the government’s burden in university funding. There are billionaires who fund science depending on their ideology (and interest). These sciences (often philosophical to social sciences) are different to neutral, knowledge oriented classical science. Both the right-wing trend and progressive extremism were supported by. Both are superficial and radical.
Added to this Social Media and other trends support a lot of pseudo-science which sometimes use scientific words to catch people for stupid things. Anti-intellectualism is most dangerous if it hides behind intellectual language. One example is the use of words of Einstein’s or quantity physics for alternative fake medicine.
Oh, no. Not you two, too. Please don’t tell me you’re transphobes, rather than just lamenting the lack of much action to reduce class disparities these days?
You have to distinguish between progressive ideology and ideological extremism. Progressive ideology wants rights, liberties, diversities and acceptance for different lifestyles. Ideological extremism moves to a fanatic attitude, it can’t discuss different opinions, but seeks to make them quiet by use of a violent language.
When those “different opinions” are “get back in the closet!”, or “we don’t want you in our neighborhood/city/country”, or just “DIE!!1!”, then there is nothing to discuss. And the hell with anyone who thinks it’s a valid compromise to expect something like “you get to go on living as long as you don’t make conservatives uncomfortable by being too publicly visible, or too publicly visibly different, thus challenging their preconceived notions about the way the world works” or “you get to go on living as long as you stick to designated ghettoes and satisfy yourselves with menial jobs” or whatever.
Or being told to be be socially unacceptable because I think nuclear energy is necessary, or because I consider Oct 7 to be the biggest terrorist attack around the world for 20 years, or know that carbon neutrality by 2035 is impossible to achieve so we need to prepare for +2C of global warming. Or from the other side, because I know that global warming exists, experts are worth listening to, or that the colour of skin means absolutely nothing. I don’t do package deals: I will decide on my opinions per issue, without requiring colour coding. Does that make me a valid target for abuse? For some (on either side!), just being a scientist and dealing in facts seems reason enough.
VC is by and large an accepting community. There is no need to believe everyone here is against you: that isn’t the case. But they may not always agree with you.
Tariffs work because it causes price increase. It shifts income from foreign exporters to domestic producers (most Americans are both consumers and producers!). If tariffs don’t cause inflation, this shift would not happen and America would continue to run the biggest trade deficit which is payed by slower wage growth in working class. This is shown in rising income inequality since America began its massive trade deficit in 1980s.
People don’t seem to understand that price increase is not an unfortunate side effect of tariff but the intention of tariff!
I don’t believe that science is the point. There is an extremely tight connection today between science and politics and also the media. Science is not independant enough. And scientists with different opinions than politically accepted are not heard. Science to be science has to be more independant and therefore falsifiable.
It must therefore be a field of different opinions based on theories that have to be proven until proven false.
One day we will have a renaissance. Of science, the media and free flowing opinion. I hope as least. Then we will see what went wrong. Flat Earthers won’t be part of that process.
In fields that don’t matter in politics and economics like paleontology we can see what science is: Eternal debate and change. I want to remind of Darwin vs. Owen or Gerta Keller vs. Alvarez. These debates are science. We don’t know for sure or Socrates: I know that I don’t know.
Oppenheimer vs. Teller was politics or ethics vs. poltical willpower.
” Putting them in charge of a country can only end one way.”
Where the USA wanders, much of the world follows. I hope we are not going to repeat history with another “Dark Age”.
Flapjack Earth… funny 😁
“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that ‘my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge’.” – Isaac Asimov
Don’t worry, there is a lot of ignorance in European countries as well.
When we are asked to believe/do logical things that we really do not want to do, then thee simple and easy response is to not believe logic. This may be a religious indoctrination, fear of needles, wish to take full advantage of cheap plentiful fuel or just prejudice (in all and any direction). However attacking this view often simply results in people holding them ever more reverently and unshakably. Whilst its not obviously life-threatening, they hold to their views. I found it better to praise the anti-vaxxers for their selfless dedication for them to allow their children to catch (eg measles) and thus allow the wild virus to improve the immunity of my own vaccinated grandchildren. For religion I used to (but have now stopped) using my knowledge of theology to cause serious doubt in christians, particularly of the biblical (but also catholic) variety.. Ie accepting their basic beliefs but pointiing out where it lead unless altered.
Anyway, for a species that generally believes in gods (that nobody has definitively seen), what else do you expect?
I used to do something similar when Jehovahs Witnesses knocked at the door. I tied a couple of them in knots one day. They still held to their beliefs but became more and more confused.
With COVID, many people just said anti-vaxxers were stupid and irresponsible. I too the route of using evidence to point out alternatives reasons for their assertions. The small handful of people spreading the misinformation are very good at half truths, making it seem more plausible. I actually don’t think they believe what they’re saying, it’s simply a way of control. Ironic really when the main complaint about “The Establishment” is that they are controlling “us”.
My wife and I earned three (3) concurrent life-time bans on visits by the JWs. Between us, we took down a ‘door-stepper’. Then his boss, who came to find why the perp had had a nervous breakdown / collapse of faith. Then *his* boss, who wanted to know why there was an epidemic of faith-collapse in our zone…
I’d an otherwise rational aunt who’d actually watched the Apollo missions and landings on TV. Then, years later, decided they must have been faked..
MIL, a ‘peripatetic teacher of the deaf’, had *many* unkind things to say about ‘multi-generational familial purblindness’ that let those families’ children’s lives be destroyed by ‘dire diseases’ utterly preventable by vaccination…
I remember how, as a kiddy, every time another vaccine-preventable ‘lurgy’ came through our Primary school, yet another desk or two would be emptied, pushed to the very back, prayers said for the desperately ill / departed. Which taught me that prayers just do not work. Happens my brother and I were fully vaccinated, *plus* inherited some of Mum’s MilSpec vaccinations’ immunities…
Subsequent career in QA/QC confirmed that ‘Common Sense’ and ‘Joined-Up Thinking’ were vanishingly rare attributes, also that classic saw that ‘There’s No Upper Limit To Human Stupidity’…
Sigh…
dear nik,
10/10.
However its sad that people suffer needlessly.
Its rarer in the UK, that’s mostly down to idleness where people just forget or can’t be bothered.
The problem is that politicians lied. They said it helps against infection and spreading, and that is outrageous. It cannot help. And the reason is that it is a virus in – well more or less the influenza group and mutates faster that pharma can develop a vaccine. I got Covid two weeks after my third vaccination, as the virus – thank God – mutated fast to harmless variants. A vaccine against a slow spreading virus with a slower mutation rate helps. One of those would be the AIDS virus. A vaccine that helps would be a blessing.
It is cheap to make money with a vaccine against a sort of influenza virus instead of tackling things like AIDS an Ebola. It’s economy. AIDS and Ebola are not everybody’s disease. Very important also would be a new vaccination against smallpox, one that has fewer side effects. Considering the lust of war. The Measles would only be manageable if one of the parents could stay at home as a child with measles – primarily not dangerous – has to stay in bed in a room without too much sunlight. I hated that. My mother was at home at the time and consistent.Today most parents work. That’s why the measles vaccination is needed. Very simple.
I had nearly everything, whooping cough, measles, rubella, mumps, scarlet fever, and I have a robust health. Covid I didn’t even notice much. I coughed and had a strong backpain. But gee, I was vaccinated three times. Only when everybody else became sick (Christmas, all in a vacation apartment in Venice) I tested, and I was the spreader, vaccinated two weeks before. One had a high fever and recovered quickly, one was really sick for a week, and one lost his taste for about four months.
The problems are therefore more complex, fact.
It was a business model. Fact. Cheapscates in the pharma industry. Not human, no way. Where it really counts, severe diseases, esp. in the neurological field, few cases, they do nothing, because their shareholders wouldn’t approve. No money can be made with those cases, not enough patients. Cynical. F them
“I got Covid two weeks after my third vaccination…”
Can take that long for immunity to ramp-up, I’m at the ‘fast’ end…
Also, some people just do not respond as well as others.
Some may even ‘Carry’.
Sounds like you may fit this cautionary category…
FWIW, as our family would be over-land camping to Greece, at a time when Smallpox was still ‘sporadic’ in Turkey, we got vaccinated against that. Among the very last ‘tourists’ such. Seriously unpleasant. Vaccinated Friday, lost all Saturday and half of Sunday. But, saved our holiday, as what seemed another out-break occurred. Near-by countries closed their borders to un-vaccinated. Took a lonnng week before victims were diagnosed as ‘UNUSUALLY SEVERE Chickenpox’. Think ‘German Measles’ vs *regular*. Borders warily re-opened. But, instead of week huddled in expensive, over-crowded camp in Yugo-land, we’d been waved through, were sunning on Greek coast…
Blimey, I don’t know where to start with this!
“it is a virus in – well more or less the influenza group”. No, it isn’t. You can’t be “more or less” in the influenza group, you either are or you aren’t. Covid is not the flu, it’s not related to the flu, and it behaves in a very different way to the flu. It’s a coronavirus.
“the [covid] virus – thank God – mutated fast to harmless variants” – unmitigated nonsense.
“the AIDS virus. A vaccine that helps would be a blessing” – the difficulty there is that the HIV virus, pretty uniquely, targets *human immune system* cells for infection. That’s one major reason why we don’t have a vaccine.
” Very important also would be a new vaccination against smallpox” – possibly the least important I can imagine, disease is extinct!
“The Measles would only be manageable if one of the parents could stay at home as a child with measles” – the measles is only usefully “manageable” by vaccination, it does too many really nasty things to too many of those infected for it to be tolerable. THAT is why the measles vaccination is needed!
^ “That’s one major reason why we don’t have a vaccine”!
Fixed in comment
I have been in places where child mortality (up to the age of 5) was 50%. We don’t have that any longer in most of the world. Vaccines are life savers. Please, no anti-vaccine comments here. We are happy to have scientific discussions but not where it endangers people’s health and life. Remember bleach against covid? That is where it gets you.
Reply to albert.
Exactly.
You can make all the assumptions and preconceptions you like, but in the end reality wins. What do people not understand by 90% effective?
Mike Ross, thank you for stating the facts.
Coronaviruses and Influenza viruses are both Orthoviruses, but that is as close as they get.
For an RNA virus SARS-CoV-2 mutates relatively slowly.
No medical treatment is 100% effective and in fact, the efficacy of the COVID vaccines is pretty high at around 90% when comparing disease severity. That is the mistake that many anti-vaxxers have made and how they spread misinformation. The purpose of the vaccines wasn’t eradicate COVID, it was to reduce severity and hospitalisation rates, so that the healthcare systems weren’t overwhelmed and they were very effective in those terms.
Everyone responds to disease and vaccination differently. It depends on a number of factors, including age and general health, but ultimately, it is down to your HLA type. Some people may be relatively resistant to one disease, but be seriously ill with another disease that only causes minor symptoms in most other people.
The immune system also takes time to respond and produce antibodies. Two weeks is the lower end of immunity, the peak varies according to disease, but is closer to 2-3 months.
The COVID vaccines have probably saved millions of lives and reduced hospitalisation of many more globally.
Also, don’t underestimate measles. It is one of the fastest spreading diseases and can have serious side-effects. It is only with widespread vaccination that has limited serious illness and rapid spread. Often individual vaccination has limited effects and with highly infectious viruses, such as measles, mass vaccination to increase herd immunity is vital and this is where anti-vaccine sentiment can have serious implications.
With Ebola, a different vaccination strategy is required, ring vaccination. Here, mass vaccination is less successful, instead, the strategy is to vaccinated contacts and contacts of contacts, to form a ring of vaccination around the initial case.
Influenza in fact was slobby by me. Let’s say Common Cold, and let’s just look at the pandemic 1889 to 1894 probably caused by a Coronavirus (HCov-OC 43) which possibly had jumped from cattle to humans:
“Using new and original nineteenth-century sources, we analysed the epidemiology, clinical features and virology of the 1889 pandemic, which was referred to at the time as ‘Russian flu’ or ‘Asiatic flu’. However, we rejected this identification of the disease as an ‘influenza’, which we believe to have been based on insufficient knowledge of the causative agent and instead posit that the pandemic was caused by a coronavirus. We provide a new account of the 1889–1893 pandemic, with a more detailed chronology that included at least four epidemiological waves. At the end of 1889, a new virus appeared in Europe, which could be identified as the coronavirus HCoV-OC43, causing crude death rates of 1.3 per 1000 population in St Petersburg; 2.1 per 1000 in Paris; 2.8 per 1000 in Bilbao and on the French–Spanish border; between 2.9 and 5.2 per 1000 in small towns in the Basque Country; and 5.8 deaths per 1000 in Madrid, which had the highest death rate.”
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9222826/
Today, OC 43 is responsable for the common cold.
Mankind and the virus is a very durable marriage, more than many other marriages. We might need them.
The term common cold usually refers to Rhinoviruses. While two Coronaviruses are sometime referred to as a cause of the common cold, it is not strictly true.
OC43 as the cause of the late 19th century pandemic is still controversial. While it makes sense, Influenza as a cause still hasn’t been ruled out and there hasn’t been any material found containing OC43, so it remains hypothetical at present.
Perhaps the most convincing evidence for OC43 being responsible for the ‘Russian Flu’ pandemic is the mortality curve. Pandemic influenza typically had a U-shaped mortality curve; it selectively kills most amongst the very young and very old.
The ‘Russian Flu’ mortality curve was J-shaped; it killed the very old and largely spared the very young. This is in the pattern of covid – and when you look at the description of the symptoms of those who suffered from the disease, they sound a lot like covid, and not very much like the flu at all. I find the evidence pretty persuasive.
I guess that vaccine conspiracy thing may indeed have been particularly paranoid, distrustful, or manipulative individuals trying to turn their instinctive fears of needles or strange things entering their bloodstream into some rational excuse/explanation for the way they feel.
Its been nearly 5 years since Kilauea first erupted in the aftermath of 2018. So now the GPS shows only deformation concurrent with eruptions too. 1.5 meters of extension of the caldera between CRIM and UWEV. And 0.2 km3 of lava too.
CRIM and UWEV have individually been uplifted by 1.1 and 1.5 meters respectively, too. OUTL just southwest of the caldera has also lifted 1.5 meters, CRIM might have permanently fallen the difference back in 2018 on a fault block.
Daily quakes have elevated, now around 150 a day compared to half that a week ago, andstrong uplift in the south caldera. This is a few weeks to eruption typically, although not always.
Last days were some minor swarms in upper ERZ, where also during summer a wave of magma went through from the summit to the middle ERZ. Maybe the past inflation at the summit preceds the next intrusion in middle ERZ.
I have read recently that they prefer to use the title “East Rift Zone Connector” instead of upper east rift zone. https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/70211337
(Abstract of a Swanson article)
“As the rift zone moved away from the summit, a marked curvature in the transport pathway developed in order for the rift zone to maintain its connection to the summit magma reservoir. The migration resulted in development of the SE-trending east rift connector, a term we prefer instead of the upper east rift zone. The connector supplies magma to the ENE-trending rift zone from the summit storage complex but is not itself the site of significant magma storage or eruption.”
Its a good change really, the connector is exactly what it sounds like and is, but where the ERZ ends is actually kind of vague. As a tectonic structure it merges with the SWRZ through the Koae faults, just not erupting there often.
I guess, being more correct, the ‘upper ERZ’ is the connector, the ‘middle ERZ’ is the part between Mauna Ulu and Pu’u O’o, as well as the part between Pu’u O’o and Leilani Estates and the highway. The lower ERZ is what is beyond that, including all of the puna ridge.
There does need to be a kind of distinction between eruptions that originate directly within a zone and those which intrude down from an origin higher up the rift. The 1986, 1991 and 2007 vents east of Pu’u O’o were all fed directly from Pu’u O’o laterally at shallow depth. One of the flows in 1961 erupted east of the boundary HVO uses for the lower ERZ, but it intruded down from Napau crater area, not locally like in 1955 or 1960. Mauna Iki was Halemaumau lava flowing into a shallow crack in the caldera wall and flowing out the other end of it, not a full original intrusion starting from the area near SDH like this year.
Its arbitrary in terms of risk but not for long term behavior. Tall sustained lava fountain vents and open conduits tend to form mostly close to the intrusion origin in rift zones (not a rule but a trend still). So a long intrusion from Napau down to the lower ERZ will very likely not make a tall fountain vent but an eruption of an intrusion starting directly from rift storage likely will. Compare 1840 with no persistent tall fountains and 1960 that was a lava geyser of the highest caliber seen in Hawaii, both similar locations from the summit.
The role of the connector / “upper ERZ” is probably a reason why there are only rare and minor eruptions. Usually magma passes through this connector and only failing intrusions under unconventional circumstances are able to erupt there. 1968 (five days) and 1973 (one day) short eruptions happened near Hi’aka crater.
“The outbreak in Hiiaka [1968] was, at the time, the westernmost historic east rift eruption; later, in May 1973, vents opened as far as 1.6 km west of Hiiaka. Eruptive 19°20′ activity so far west is apparently infrequent, for only two prehistoric vents can be documented uprift of Hiiaka”
https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/0890/report.pdf
The Chain of Craters is a Chain of nearly no eruptions. Most craters there were caused by collapses of earth fractures. Only the summit area has craters with eruptions again: Luamanu had an eruption 1974 which was connected to a Keanakākoʻi eruption. It was a summit eruption, not an east rift connector eruption. This map shows the summit eruptions before 2018 including the 1974 one:
Eruption has become intermittent. Several periods of blank black in scrollback. I thought it had died several hours ago but it’s active again now; the vent farther from the camera has built itself up significantly higher now than the nearer vent. I don’t think the lulls have any regularity based on what I’ve seen thus far (contra 2021, where periods of episodic eruption had fairly regular intervals for stretches of time before the period or the whole behavior changed).
Blank black can also mean poor visibility. It is Iceland after all.
Taal had a hydrovulcanic eruption this morning. Nice video’s circulating.
Wtf does flat earth have to do with volcanism or geology. Some people do stupid things but I have for a long time felt like this place is rather extremely misanthropic for no reason, going back to the old ‘Homo Stultus’ idea. Like, does anyone seriously think we are actually less intelligent as a species now? Theres so many ways to measure intelligence, and nearly all of those have gone exponentially up in the last century. Maybe we are less socially intelligent, but thats about it.
I spent my teens and young adult life desiring the apocalypse, a great and unsuffering reset, the full potential of nuclear war, the next K-Pg. More than just an edgy phase, I wanted it all burned to ash, I thought we were a lost cause, and hoped it to be fast. Until I actually went and experienced the world and lived on my own terms, and it really isnt bad, and the places it really is bad couldnt care less about what the developed world thinks ‘bad’ is. Media is heavily biased to the worst of both sides, its all the same.
No im not accusing anyone here of being anything. Im just asking, why…
People have different opinions. One person I admired was someone with political opinions far from mine. But he also ran a personal ambulance service in a village in Africa using his own car (the real ambulance was broken). Who could argue with that! But I also see the other side – abuse of scientists for no reason except that the real world is not what people want, but equally abuse from the (far) left when science perhaps does not agree with their world view. Science denial is more prevalent than it has been for a long time. And it feeds into children being denied the right to be educated, or being convinced to refuse that education. Denying the existence of global warming hurts our children. Denying the effectiveness of vaccines kills people. Denying democracy kills freedom. Denying evolution has no such consequence and can in most cases be left as a difference in opinion.
I am an optimist. Problems can be solved. Even global warming. Just not be denying their existence.
VC is a volcano blog. We fight for science but otherwise have a large variety of opinions among the readership. I like it that way.
“VC is a volcano blog. We fight for science but otherwise have a large variety of opinions among the readership. I like it that way.” Bravo!
I do think it’s better to focus on solutions than the problems themselves. So what’s the solution? A lot of these problems are rooted in feelings like anger, fear, or envy, so teach children in schools better ways to handle their emotions so they don’t have to resort to lies when they grow up. Maybe have the government pay for psychologists so that everyone can afford to go regularly to the psychologist, maybe have them in schools so they can prevent problems arising from their root. That’s my opinion.
A culture of education would be usefull. Many people spend their free time with sport, music, art, but maybe we need free associations / clubs which supply adult education or opportunities to learn scientific work/thinking on a simple level.
Mankind only seems more stupid as the internet makes it possible that everybody can say what he thinks, among them some non-thinkers who i.e. have never been to South America, but have seen ten metre green anaconda. Let’s call some of them sensationalists. And tolerate them as they are not so lonely with the internet. They find friends there and spread a bit of nonsense.
I am very good at calculating, but due to may school specialized in languages a loser in higher mathematics.
Knowing that I explained to one Flat Earther the route of Maghellan and the fact that he (that’s to say his last surviving ship) didn’t take the same route back and also didn’t fall of a border and come back as a plane. He saw the point, but didn’t want to see it. It is an ideology, and we are powerless against ideologies of all kind.
Look at this, it is a rainbow mountain on the former bottom of Tethys, now on a very low lying peninsula in in Mangystau Province, Kazakhstan:
Sherkala
Some Pahala tremor?
2024-12-03 07:20:59
Earthquake
Magnitude:1.9M
Depth:28.5mi
What it looked like on TRAD
What it looked like on RIMD
Maybe only two in the past 2 hours, but I saw 5, shallow, at Kīlauea for the past 2 hours.
Not significant enough to warrent as a foreshadowing of an eruption, but it is interesting the activity is quite elevated.
Quite lively, the next eruption must be getting close.
HVO fixed the middle ERZ GPS at Pu’u O’o, it hasnt gone up as much as I expected from the last signal it displayed before, but its clear magma is going at least as far down the rift as Pu’u O’o. Although most of it is accumulating uprift of it still.
I think the gap in quakes between the upper ERZ connector, and the spot next to Pu’u O’o, must be where the major magma accumulation of the last few months is. A huge area too hot to break, probably a complex of sills forming along with some dikes formed in September. Im going to guess the next eruption will be pretty close to the last one, may e even in the same place. It also might be indicating that a future lower ERZ eruption will collapse some of this area, Napau isnt really much of a crater anymore and may not exist in 10 years if we get a lot of eruptions in it.
Sorry forgot this one also
2024-12-03 03:16:11
Earthquake
Magnitude:2.6M
Depth:26.7mi
I am getting flashbacks.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/03/unknown-disease-kills-people-south-west-drc-democratic-republic-of-the-congo
That piece is good for nothing as it only says Panzi. Ggl maps gives me four Panzi, one close to Lake Kivu and three in Kinshasa. That is not the southwest. They name a village in the second largest country of Africa, 11th largest country of the world. No map. Pour journalism.
I agree. the original info is terrible, mentioning places on other sides of continent.
The outbreak is occuring in Kwango province, southwest of DRC. The press release was in Lumumbashi, southeast. And Panzi seems to be some healthcare organization indeed.
thanks.
Today the Iceland Meteorological Office is saying that there is a balance between input from beneath Svartsengi and the output at the current north vent. https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/eruption-begins-on-the-sundhnukur-fissure-swarm. A look at the GPS stations heights near the region seem to confirm this, but some still show a slight upward movement.
I am going to make a comment which cuts across the grain. Please see https://www.simplypsychology.org/karl-popper.html where the scientific philosophy of Karl Popper is explained. I don’t completely buy into Karl’s methodology, for example, the very idea of falsification is not falsifiable, hence it cannot be scientific.
As a published mathematician, I am going to say that science IS based upon mathematics, and in mathematics we DO have unproved axioms which MUST be assumed true, before we can progress forward with proofs and deductions. So NOT everything can be falsified.
I agree with Karl that we cannot state a general deduction from specifics, but if one examines science carefully today, most is not involved with disproving current knowledge, but rather in discovering new knowledge (which then is made rigorous by mathematics) and hypotheses subsequently tested.
I would caution everyone from assuming that because you follow Karl’s philosophy that you have the “best knowledge” that exists, when his philosophy is actually aimed to disproving hypotheses, and this is a rather negative viewpoint (IMO) as it does not naturally lead to new ideas being introduced but seems to impel scientists at demolishing conjectures, if this is carried too far, we have nothing left which is reliable.
– Randall
Mathermatically its proven that there are true statements that cannot be proved true and vice versa. I belive this is a consequence of godels incompleteness theorem(s). However, that is not the problem with science on the whole. Whilst it generally impinges on ‘outside science’ not at all its what I call the “phlogiston phenomena” where a known breakdown between existing theory and experiment is bodged up by inventing things and arbitrarily adding them to existing theory to make everyone happy. This then turns into dogma. Phlogiston, earth centred astronomy, dark stuff and (almost) string theory being well known example (or will be shown so).
In mathematics, there is sometimes a choice between opposing theorems. For instance, a surface can be flat or curved: these lead to different expressions for, e.g., the circumference of a circle. Measurements are needed to decide between the options but that is outside the realm of mathematics. Math gives us the framework and tools. Physics has to choose which tools fit reality.
A theory that doesn’t quite fit the observations can be ‘tweaked’ which I think is what you are referring to. The Ptolemaic model for the planets of cycles and epi-cycles is an example. By the way, that model wasn’t ‘earth-centric’: the central point for the orbits was taken to be a bit away from the Earth, in hindsight they had found the ellipticity of the Earth’s orbit. The cycles and epi-cycles would have worked perfectly as an ellipse can be described in that way, but they picked the wrong rate for the epicycles for that. Hence the proliferation of epicycles. The model was still quite accurate. Copernicus’ model was not accepted because it didn’t fit the data nearly as well. It was only Tycho Brahe who found discrepancies between positions of the planets and predictions from Ptolemaic models, and Kepler (after decades of work) who found that ellipses fitted them well. After that it took a century for the Kepler model to become accepted. Newton’s law of gravity can be derived directly from Kepler’s laws. That came later. So I think this is actually how science works. If we have a model that works well, a replacement won’t be accepted unless it does as well or better, and has stood the test of time. Ideally it should also be mathematically simpler but that is a preference rather than a law of physics!
It is much harder to apply this to medical or social sciences, but here too the data eventually decides.
Albert, certainly you are right that many scientists have refused to see new ideas, they too are human. Right now we are in a bit of a spot because to explain certain observations requires either a modification of existing theories or inventing new unobservations (ie dark stuff). Its not helped that GR (in particular) required “quite difficult” maths that few are intrinsically able to grok. IMHO we are a decade past the point where someone comes up with an alternative. You might say they already have, but are sidelined, and I cannot disagree with that. Many vested interests (a lifetime of study) who would not be happy.
Happy grokking. Dark ‘stuff’ is either dark matter (unknown but does not require new laws of physics) or dark energy (that one does require something new). GR has a problem: it is perfect, as Chandrasekhar once told me. There are no discrepancies with observations: it has passed all tests. So there is no handle on ways to rewrite it. Quantum is also doing pretty well in its own domain. The problem lies in the overlap between GR (gravity) and particle physics. We know there is a conflict but we have no data in that regime and so don’t know what works and what doesn’t. String theory is so far a dead end, mainly because it has too many degrees of freedom. It can’t be nailed down so can’t be falsified so can’t be confirmed. There are some interesting developments in statistical physics but the math is pretty unyieldy.
Scientists build cathedrals. We rarely see the completed work but are happy to contribute to the future. It does make us a bit unhappy with people who do their level best to ensure there is no future..
Well either perfect GR is incomplete or perfect QM is incomplete, take your pick. For sure one or both are not perfect OR we are misinterpreting one or the other. I think that’s a pretty good bet, personally. However, would you risk your PhD or career/tenure pursuing alternatives that may lead nowhere?
No?
Join the crowd then.
I rather doubt the next step is as simple as SR or early QM and may require a decade of work, hence the problem.
The ether…
Mathematics is a logical or formal science. That’s different to disciplines which have to watch something. Karl Popper probably rather talked about sciences which can use empirical methods for testing.
The falsification knowledge level of science is a very rare case. Falsification means, that it’s viable for all times that something is wrong. Usually science is below this, because most questions are too complicated to get a falsification. The next lower level below falsification is confirmation. It has less certainty than falsification, but is in most cases satisfying. Confirmation is the knowledge that there is a high probability that something is correct, but not with eternal viability.
Although I partially agree I must stress that science is not always based on mathematics as mathematics needs data. So, concerning the past, esp. the deep past we don’t need just mathematics but also evidence.
When Alfred Wegener came along at the beginning of the last century he only started with his eyes. Then he pointed at the evidence: Similar fossils in Africa and the Americas.
Then he died and the wars came. During the Second World War already the inspection of the ocean floors was started, take Harry Hammond Hess, and afterwards the spreading ridges were found. That was more or less the proof. And then drilling and chemical analysis made Continental Drift crystal clear and helped to assume time spans. ASSUME, btw
Alfred Wegener’s theory of Continental Drift probably won’t be falsified as it is absolutely logical. What might change is the position of the different countries inside Pangaea based on new evidence.
For say weather it is obvious that we will never have measurement data for the time before the data collection started. But we will have more evidence as the method of looking at tree rings is relatively new. And analyzing the north pole and south pole ice will improve. Unfortunately we do not have all the ice on the glaciers as some are losing substance. But these methods to analyze the past were certainly great inventions.
People who have a great plausible idea or invent s.th. useful have my wholehearted admiration.
The developping problem, clearly visible like the writing on the wall, is money.
What I find interesting in the discussion between fact and perceived fact and the role that mathematics and science in general plays in deciphering the difference between the two, is that we are ignoring how humans are genetically programmed. Throughout the age of humanity, countless human societies all had one thing in common which is a foundational belief structure based both on the imaginary (spirituality) and observed fact (like a rock breaking the bones of prey or the invention of the wheel after observing that a round rock falling down a hillside leads to the learning that is easier to move a round rock than a flat one), vs. inventing a perceived fact to explain why.
We see evidence everywhere of tangible human traits/talents that are not universal throughout our species such as music, art (what is “beauty”), short and long term memory, physical gifts (sports, warfare), and of course the ability to comprehend mathematics. Here I speak from first-hand experience as I was born with a frustrating short term memory disability that made it impossible for me to understand advanced mathematics (not for a lack of trying as I had several tutors and instructors who failed to get me through Trigonometry). On the other hand, I was also born with well-above mechanical skills and an uncanny ability to comprehend/analyze what I was observing…an intrinsic skill BTW that I used to build a near 40yr career in Semiconductor manufacturing and process/equipment design, then teaching to pass on what I’d learned. SInce I didn’t have the theoretical capabilities, I augmented my deficiency by creatively designing and using physical ways to prove/disprove theoretical efficacy such as becoming an expert in the use of advanced metrology. A good example is there is no way I could have mathematically conceived of STM (scanning tunnelling microscopy), though I used the technique extensively (and creatively) to “see” what/how a crystal’s atoms are arranged when impurities are introduced (such as Ion Implant), which in turn led to cutting-edge modifications to equipment and processes based on creativity and sheer perseverance.
I do not know why I was given this gift to visualize/analyze then create, or why I cannot process advanced math (thank you computers and pocket calculators)…all I know is my Father had exactly the same mechanical gifts (even more so) with the same math deficiency (of which he often mentioned and bemoaned).
So how does Science and math explain this dichotomy without introducing the idea of a predisposition of specialized human traits in each individual? i.e. are people pre-programmed with certain traits, abilities and capabilities? I have many friends in disciplines such as medicine who say they have always known since early childhood that being a doctor was all they wanted to do (in my case it was the weather that my Mother says I was already obsessed with by age 3). Same can said for warriors, who have a predisposition to be hunters and protectors of the tribe/family, or caregivers of the family or farmers to grow the food. (Curiously, I know of no one who felt they were born to be a lawyer).
My hypothesis is we do not understand fully what an instinct is…is it purely limited (for example) to the desire to survive or procreate with a certain type of partner? Methinks there are many other “instincts” out there (contrary to what my college Psychology teacher said), including the “belief” instinct that forms the core of how “leaders” amass armies, create and maintain societies and invent religions.
So, if we accept that we all have different skill packages and/or instincts that we cannot control, then what an individual calls “fact” is really a matter of what their instincts say? You cannot change that. If you want to believe that the earth is flat, then no amount of data, evidence or cajoling is going to change what your belief instinct is. Until we better understand how the brain/thinking works and what can/cannot be passed down generation to generation via DNA, then we have to accept that the masses do not have equal abilities (nor motivation) to understand/separate fact from fiction and instead, replace any holes with their imagination/instincts. This is why Science isn’t within the capabilities of many to grasp…their belief instinct is just too strong for logic to counteract.
It is the human way.
Very interesting Craig. Will read again tomorrow. 11.10 pm, a bit tired.
This is precisely h.sap’s power. No one person is great at maths and spacial skills, nor mothering or building or managing or organising and no one person has the wish, never mind the interest or ability, to excel in all of these. BUT I can find you individuals with aptitude from average to extreme in all of these (and more). Humanity is all of us with multiple aptitudes, drive and ability that become the sum in society. Bricklayers, plumbers, housewives and toilet cleaners are all needed in a society for everyone to flourish. There are differences in remuneration or status that varies largely by value and rareness. Currently, in the UK bricklayers/plumbers etc are rarer and paid much more than the average graduate for that reason.
From a philosphical perspective we can ask: Do all things exist on their own or do they need an intelligent species who can acknowledge their existence? If we (100% humans) couldn’t acknowledge the existence of a black hole, would it still exist?
Even physical disciplines need some metaphysics: The addition of meaning to a physical object. Meaning doesn’t exist in the physical world. Humans are able to do it. Religions/philosphies apply this ability to the Logos, the Tao, the Wisdom, the Force (of Star Wars) or God(s).
Oh, the evidence is solid that either current cosmology it totally wrong OR the universe exists without humans or any other sentient life form. It is its own observer, if you must. Perhaps its the wave function of all the wave functions, the wave function of the universe.
I find it fascinating that i.e. viruses know that it doesn’t mak sense for them to kill all of us because they would lose their host, and that they therefore mutate to replicate in a few of us (some might die). This without a brain. Nature is probably axtremely intelligent, but we don’t know how and why.
And I’d like to add that we as groups or systems are not intelligent, less than ants (individuals are intelligent though). We killed and destroyed too many species of plants, mammals and other groups to be called intelligent.
Whether all is steered by God or nature and evolution itsself I relly cannot tell. I only assume that greed and jealousy are underestimated in their destructive power.
corr. make. extremely. One Gin and Tonic, two mistakes. I will have to talk to my liver to work faster.
I set the map to show all of the quakes in Icelant for the last year, 6/12/2023 to today.
https://skjalftalisa.vedur.is/#/page/map
The sliding plate boundaries are evident, running from the Reykjanes Ridge through Hekla to Torfajokull, and again up at the top at Tjornes with a double boundary. A few central volcanoes between are clear, Grimsvotn, Bardarbunga and Askja, but the spreading zone is mostly silent. Katla is also a stand out just south if the boundary.
But the bit I noticed that seems not discussed, are the quake swarms on the North American side. One at Hofsjokull, some more at Langjokull, and the biggest one at Ljosufjoll. All are volcanoes that are usually silent, or nearly so. But that isnt what it looks like to me. In fact the swarm Ljosufjoll is one of the most persistent in the country, and it is deep, too deep to be anything ither than magma. It was discussed a bit a while ago on here but things arent letting up. The eruptions here, probably not coincidentally, seem to happen at the same time as eruptions on Reykjanes.
Hofsjokull is not looking particularly suspicious in terms of actually erupting soon. But it is a huge caldera, so despite its sleepy behavior there must be a significant magma generation under it to create such a structure, and quakes therefor are maybe not something to be ignored. I doubt it is old enough to have simply been a former plume center that drifted, it may have started that way perhaps even millions of years ago, but the current caldera is probably a younger wave of volcanism, and it has had Holocene eruptions of fairly large scale and high intensity, one lava flow is 20 km long. Perhaps the volcano is a result of extra magma accumulation under the crust between the two plate boundaries at Langjokull and Bardarbunga, combined with what appears to be a trend from Snaefellsness to Oraefajokull that may be a fracture zone, not a real plate boundary but a weak point nonetheless. It is a huge volcano, perhaps in the twilight of its current stage, but probably not dying in a true sense, just between waves. But sleepy isnt silent.
https://i.imgur.com/jEkJ0Yi.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/QBzKaEz.jpeg
Sometimes there are days when the whole plate boundary from Reykjanes to Tjornes has a chain of earthquakes. Maybe sometimes the bigger structure is moving and at other times the smaller parts are moving.
Actually, if what I said is plausible, then Hofsjokull might be very different to the present volcanoes. Peak Hofsjokull might be the closest thing Iceland gets to a true LIP province, flooding the highlands with lava then evolving to a caldera, until the magma is depleted and it goes mostly dormant until recharged. I imagine it has potential to far outperform Bardarbunga and Grimsvotn, given it hasnt got a plate boundary with a 90% magma tax.
New post is up! A month of goodies opens up
https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-vc-volcano-advent-calendar/