The VC Bar

Welcome to the Volcano Café bar, a place for all things on or off topic and inane ramblings. There has been a need of late to find a place better suited to various theories, long comments and enthusiasm. This page will be less moderated than the main article pages and cleared out every month (this may change depending on use).

Have fun and don’t forget to tip the barman 😉

2,199 thoughts on “The VC Bar

  1. Grims has given some weird signals. The weather was fair past 24 hours. Not much of the signal was registered in IMO tables. What could have been the cause?

    28.04.2020 09:27:41 64.483 -17.463 6.5 km 0.5 99.0 12.6 km NW of Grímsfjall
    28.04.2020 02:24:07 64.502 -17.347 2.7 km 0.8 99.0 11.4 km NNW of Grímsfjall
    27.04.2020 20:19:13 64.427 -17.202 3.6 km 0.2 99.0 4.2 km NE of Grímsfjall
    27.04.2020 20:18:47 64.444 -17.167 1.9 km 0.5 99.0 6.7 km NE of Grímsfjall
    27.04.2020 20:18:42 64.429 -17.215 5.0 km 0.2 99.0 3.9 km NE of Grímsfjall

      • Yes, rockfall and or snow/ice melting is plausible. Yesterday this type of signal occured once more.
        I saw some pictures from the area. I had no idea cliffs up there are that exposed.

  2. “At the moment radioactivity generates about 30TW in the earth.”
    Thanks Albert! I’ve long wondered about the Earth’s internal heat generation.

  3. Interesting….

    “Here we use a recently developed trajectory modelling approach7 that is designed to isolate secular tectonic motions from the daily GNSS time series to show that the 2010 Maule, Chile (moment magnitude 8.8) and 2011 Tohoku-oki, Japan (moment magnitude 9.0) earthquakes were preceded by reversals of 4–8 millimetres in surface displacement that lasted several months and spanned thousands of kilometres. Modelling of the surface displacement reversal that occurred before the Tohoku-oki earthquake suggests an initial slow slip followed by a sudden pulldown of the Philippine Sea slab so rapid that it caused a viscoelastic rebound across the whole of Japan.”

  4. Latest England excess deaths (delayed data)

    And projected to date for UK as tweeted by Chris Giles Economic Editor at The Financial Times

    For a total of 48,500 excess UK deaths projected by yesterday.

    • Which fits with Actuarial Projection.

      Continuous Mortality Investigation
      Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

      Our analysis suggests that there could have been in the range of 38,000 to 45,000 cumulative excess registered deaths in England & Wales by 27 April 2020; and applying the same method to the PHE figure for UK deaths suggests 41,000 to 48,000 excess registered deaths in the UK.

      These calculations are sensitive to the assumed relationship between the PHE and CMI figures, particularly for the “later” period in Table 3. The calculations do not allow for deaths which may have occurred by 27 April 2020 but were not reported by then.

      There is currently an average delay of 3-4 days in registering a death so registered by 27th April captures actual total up to about 23rd. Adding in likely deaths up to today puts it in line with the Chris Giles estimate.

  5. To fellow readers, just a reminder that the massive quake which devastated the minoan empire has struck again in Crete ( less the 1 mag ). Virus or no virus , nature and volcanonism goes on.

  6. Good run at Pahala, including 3.3 and 3.2. The quake at 10:09:09 might be the shallowest in the area that I can remember.

    2020-05-04 15:51:59 2 34.2
    2020-05-04 15:23:06 2 36.9
    2020-05-04 14:46:16 2.2 34.5
    2020-05-04 13:00:40 2 32.1
    2020-05-04 12:23:29 2.5 30.2
    2020-05-04 12:09:58 2.2 31.7
    2020-05-04 12:05:04 2.1 32.3
    2020-05-04 12:03:18 2.1 31.1
    2020-05-04 11:50:19 3.3 31.8
    2020-05-04 11:46:15 3.2 32.6
    2020-05-04 11:45:14 2.6 32.6
    2020-05-04 11:11:55 2 33.8
    2020-05-04 10:24:42 1.9 34.7
    2020-05-04 10:09:09 1.8 27.9
    2020-05-04 10:05:29 2.2 32.1
    2020-05-04 09:19:02 2.2 35.1
    2020-05-04 07:02:32 2 32.4

  7. Flaming Hot Cheetos and Orange Tick Tack Volcano. Pretty much what it would do to my stomach.. flame or not.

    • Thank you for that link.

      Happens I’ve been trying to counter claims by a black-hole denialist that there’s only two massive bodies in system. He cannot see that the very different ‘years’ of the two visible stars means there’s a three-body scenario with a lot of non-luminous mass…

      • NOTE: Not an astro guy.

        It would seem to me that the Doppler measurements of the two stars should make that stand out like a sore thumb.

        • As in so many other fields, such a ‘True Believer’ (‘TB’) will not, Not, NOT be swayed by contrary evidence, however over-whelming…

          Been a few years, but I was thrown off a previously civil EziBoard-era forum for daring to ask a purblind AGW-Denialist what evidence he *would* accept.

          Entire Greenland ice-cap sloughing, perhaps ??

          It spawned a bar-brawl. Although I’d kept my cool, the Mod apologetically barred me rather than the Perps, as too many were sponsors…

    • Thanks, Albert. Do you think the Black Hole ‘photograph’ project will take a look at this one in the near future?

    • The astounding part…

      the system is so close to us that its stars can be viewed from the southern hemisphere on a dark, clear night without binoculars or a telescope

  8. Anybody having an issue with the seismometers at HVO? I see all them stuck at 23:36 on the 7th.

    • That is remarkably understated.

      Also, it showed, but did not seem to mention the ‘ghost forests’ created when coastal strip elevated by the locked subduction zone suddenly found itself a metre or five lower. Just in time for the first tsunami to come rolling in…

    • Actually, my admonition is don’t “be” there. If you can live there and manage to not be there when things go nuts, that’s fine. Just remember you are going to have a LOT of competition while trying to get out of the way. (and not a whole lot of time to do so)

      Moving to a more geologically secure location is actually the wisest move.

      • For those who plan to evacuate UP their building to escape the waves… that’s fine, but you are going to be there for quite a time until help (or supplies) arrive… providing your building can withstand the waves.

        • Hi, Lurk! Glad to see You are still on the planet…… When Florida Man hits the news i always think of You… Sending Smiles across the Miles, motsfo

          • Which makes us wonder: if there is such a thing as Florida Man, can we also define Alaska Woman? I envisage a little old lady with a rifle facing off a big bear..


    Albert do you remeber Steven Callahans incredible castaway in 1982?
    South of the canary islands his sailboat collapsed and sank and she took refuge his inflatable life raft.
    Callahan was at mercy of wind and seacurrents alone in his little raft thousands of miles from land.

    Steven Callahan survived for 78 days out to sea, living on mahi mahi ( dorado fish ) and seagulls that he speared. Freshwater he got from two solar saltwater – stills
    Constantly thirsty and hungry and in hands of seacurrents and winds… but he surivived.
    He was picked uo in west indies after 78 days to sea.
    Still his inflatable cocoon travelled over 40 kilometers every day, without engine.

    “In addition to the little ecosystem developing around my raft, I am constantly surrounded by a display of natural wonders. The acrobatic dorados perform beneath ballets of fluffy white clouds. The clouds glide across the sky until they join at the horizon to form whirling, flaming sunsets that are slowly doused by nightfall. Then, as if the sun had suddenly crashed, thousands of glistening galaxies are flung out into deep black night. There is no bigger sky country than the sea. But I cannot enjoy the incredible beauty around me. It lies beyond my grasp, taunting me. Knowing it can be stolen from me at any time, by a Dorado or shark attack or by a deflating raft, I cannot relax and appreciate it. It is beauty surrounded by ugly fear. I write in my log that it is a view of heaven from a seat in hell.”

    It was a really wet, really salty and really ugly situation he was in…
    And he coud have gotten stuck for years there if he was on the circulating currents in Sargasso Ocean never bringing him to land.

    • The open tropical seas are also very barren…Im supprised how many fishes he caught.
      The tropical deep ocean are the largest desert on earth, you cannot drink seawater
      and there is hardly any fish to eat and no shade outside the raft.
      Steven Callahan became an invisible dot… in an endless expanse of blue.

      • IIRC, other ‘castaways’ who survived the first week or so plus eg Thor Heyerdahl remarked that their craft gradually became a ‘truck stop’ for wildlife. Small fishes took to shoaling in the shade, weed grew, attracted small crustaceans, shrimp etc and more fish. Predators showed up, an entire micro-ecology developed…

        Combined with slopes generating ‘overturn’, this is why sea-mounts, with von Kármán vortex street, fringing reef or atoll cap, may have a thriving biome compared to the surrounding waters.

  10. To Albert regarding ‘Alaskan Woman’: You are thinking about my Daughter in Law who slammed a glass door into the snout of a bear on her porch as she was between the bear and the kids…. Gun was too far away. 🙂

      • Or conversely, not a lot of People ..
        just kidding..
        When I was in Anchorage a few years back, there was a
        bear attack just outside of town. Here in my part of NE Oregon we have black bear, wolves,cougars,and deer lots of deer..So when the wild comes calling you have to be aware of this, Oh I forgot Turkeys. My little Maltipoo hates them. but won’t go off the deck to bark.

        • Black bears get into stuff but rarely attack people.California has about the same animals as Oregon, maybe more snakes and lizards because it is hotter.

          • More concerned about rattlesnakes than bears. especially up in the rimrock.
            When I lived on the coast we had a garbage can raiding sow bear in our neighborhood. she had two cubs who were helping mommy raid the garbage.
            Kept our under lock and key, the state live trapped them with some effort. Seems they were gourmands -no roadkilled deer -they wanted beef. finally got’em into the trailer with a 1/4 beef and
            a side of apples..
            She was tagged and knew the drill.
            “Home, Jeeves.” and they went back to the Elk river drainage..


    Albert look at this!
    Looks like Hawaiis Pūhāhonu volcano had magma at 1700 degrees C
    Archean hot magma

    ”Chemical analysis of rock collected from the volcano revealed a higher concentration of an olivine mineral called forsterite than we’ve ever seen in a Hawaiian volcano. This mineral indicates magma on the higher end of the temperature. calculations, the magma clocked in at 1,703 degrees Celsius (3,097 degrees Fahrenheit) – hotter than any other Hawaiian basalt ”


    Hawaii is the clearest and bluest ocean on the planet. Its in the center of the ”North Pacific Gyre” very there is hardly any nutrients at all.
    Clear and Blue lacking plankton and nutrients.

    The surface layer of the Hawaii North Pacific gyre has very clear waters with hardly any nutrients.
    The extraordinary clarity of these waters allows sunlight to penetrate deep into the water column and support photosynthesis below 100 meters in the water column.

    The visibility in Hawaii are very good extremely good. Liquid saphire it really is. But its also a ”watery desert”
    Dive visibility in Hawaii can be 80 meters or even more.

    This is the atolls north of Kauai

  13. This is real speed, NOT slowed down
    Its absoutley crazy, continetal summer
    supercell thunderstorms are the most prolific lightning producers on Earth. The updrafts are very strong in souch storms. This is the most spectacular thunderstorm video on youtube

    • The ‘real speed’ sections are impressive. The ‘time-lapse’ sections are terrifying…

      My Mum’s Mum was terrified of thunderstorms, as they looked and sounded too much like her wartime gunfire, bombing etc. Mum determined us kids should not be trained such. When autumn storms began, she’d unplug the TV’s power and VHF down-feed, haul back the curtains and have us time the flash-to-bang intervals. Yes, five ‘mississippis’ to the mile !!

      There are several excellent sites for real-time monitoring of lightning strikes.

      FWIW, the back-ground RF hum from the global total has been identified as a fair ‘thermometer’. Yes, it rises and falls cyclically, but trend is upwards. IIRC, it tracks CO2….

      • Spent a goodly portion of my life on the ground and aviation dodging Thunderstorms. fondly remember diving into a ditch off of the family Model A John Deere-pulling a set of spike harrows and a storm came up didn’t make to the shed-no chance, so I shut down dove into a ditch hunkered down, and waited for it to pass, For a while it was FLASH! BANG! the Tractor was tallish with the harrows a nice grounding so I got as far away and low as possible.. Got good and soaked too -they don’t call’em “gully warshers”for nothing .(Note pronunciation).

        • May have mentioned this before…

          My wife was in hospital (again) when a humongous strike hit the ridge-line conductor on lower adjacent building.

          All the perched sea-birds ( Lesser Black-back Gulls AKA ‘Flying Beach Rats’) were stunned. They slid down the shallow roof, rolled over the gutters, fell two stories to surrounding paths & lawn.

          Un-maintained power went off for that ‘zone’ of site. A zillion car, fire and instrument alarms began squawking.

          The first birds to recover decided it was smorgasbord time, began pecking at the rest…

    • This is a nice video from a tornado chaser and photographer about these thunderstorms.

  14. 2 unusual earthquakes happened yesterday at Kilauea, unusual because they were very long, with a gradual onset, low frequencies and one was double-peaked. They happened at 2:33-2:37 and 17:03-17:08 UTC. Some observations:

    Thinking that they would be similar, I compared the strongest event to the LP earthquakes that happened on April 21, to find that there are actually some differences.

    April 21 events had lower frequencies, mostly below 5 hertzs (classifying as LP), had spikes, and while coming from the summit of Kilauea they were deeper (registered in TRAD seismometer on Mauna Loa).

    Yesterday’s, May 25, had low frequency but not enough to classify as an LP, lacks spikes and was very shallow (not registered in TRAD), in fact both seem to come right from Halema’uma’u, so probably related to the shallow Halema’uma’u reservoir or the hydrothermal system.

    Captures of both eq types:

      • The duration suggest this isn’t rock. A frequency of 5 Hz is a wavelength of around 1 km in rock, or 300 meters in water. The 300 meters rings a bell since that is around the size of the lake, isn’t it? How about a fumarole explosion under the lake?

        • There has been a brief drumbeat swarm overnight, HVO locates it at 8-13 km deep, these happened a few times in 2019 but I hadn’t noticed that the events making them up are LPs. Here is the strongest part of the sequence:

          It reminds of the April 21 earthquakes I had just mentioned, probably same origin, at ~10 km depth it is probably related to some magma conduit process.

          It is clearly different from Monday’s (May 25) earthquakes which were much more shallow and may have been due to steam, water, degassing or similar.

  15. Albert are you Impressived by Hawaiis Punahonu?
    It was 150 000 km3 thats more than twice the size of Mauna Loa.
    Its freaking 270 Kilometers wide!
    Chemical analysis of the basalts suggest they formed at over 1700 C thats hotter than liquid titanium.
    Maybe Hawaii is able to produce Komatite? after all the youngest Komaties are 90 million years old.
    Punahonu formed when the Hawaiian hotspot had a major heat sourge from the depths.

    Hawaiian Hotspot is undergoing another boost in productivity and output now since the Pleistocene began
    maybe a New Punahonu will form of Kilauea?
    Hawaii Hotspot is heating up again

    • 1700 C magma in a Hawaii magma chamber! ( 3100 f )
      Albert what temperature did Punahonu erupt at?

      DustDevil! how hot was the erupting lavas at that old volcano?
      If the deep magma chamber is at over 1700 degrees C
      The lava was ?

      • Some magmas of Mauna Loa have been at a temperature of 1670 ºC in the mantle so it was probably not that diferent from what we have now, the hotspot may have been a bit stronger back then but the main reason why Puhahonu grew so big was that there was a single chain of volcanoes back then so that volcanoes grew further away from each other.

        • It was mentioned in the Puhahonu article, but I don’t think there is an openly avaliable version of that study.

    • Albert
      This is impressive stuff
      And very warm indeed

      Whats your opinion
      Can Hawaii make Komatite If its really in souch a pulse in strenght?

    • I always had this personal hunch the universe is a good deal older than the research so far implies. Thanks to Jeff Parsons at the Metro, my hunch is now scientifically proven. 🙂

    • Interesting article, I’ve been wondering about this possibility for a while, as all tropical eruptions with significant stratospheric injections in the postwar period have been followed by el niño episodes in the following winter (Agung, El Chichon, Pinatubo). Three episodes are not enough to provide statistical evidence, but is certainly an interesting association. Krakatoa doesn’t fit however, it may have been too late in the summer season to have the same effect.

  16. A month ago a a new paper about the volcanic eruptions in early XII century has been published, suggesting a cluster of large eruptions in the wake of the Hekla 1104 eruptions, that caused serious climate disruptions in 1108-1110.

    I remember that Albert discussed the anomalies in ice core data around that period both in his Heckla 1104 and Millennium volcanoes articles, I’d really like to read your take on this. I apologize if it has already been posted, but I haven’t been able to read all the comments lately.

    • If the reason you can’t read all the comments is in the mobile formatting, there is a solution in

      I found the Nature article quite thin. You don’t really need a smoking gun if you already have both the smoke and the gun. I would argue that Hekla 1104 actually erupted in 1108. In the ice cores, there is a spike around this period but it is not particularly strong. The Eldgja eruption, non-explosive and at Iceland, left just as much sulfate in Antarctica, and there was more sulfate from the 1171 eruption. Yes, there may well have been a tropical eruption around 1109, and there may have been more than one eruption in the north, but it doesn’t add up to something bigger than an Pinatubo – a 1 in 50 year event. The fact that there is excess sulfate in Greenland over several years could be due to the icelandic ‘sand winters’: after a major eruption, winter winds blow the ejecta around causing sand storms. That lasts until the vegetation returns.

      • Thank you Albert!

        My issue with comments is not incorrect visualization but lack of time caused by covid19-related disruptions to family life (school closures mainly). Thanks for the tip anyway. 🙂

        About the paper, I wasn’t persuaded by their arguments as well. If the Hekla eruption had really happened in 1104 we should see it in the Greenland record. I didn’t know about sand winters, could it explain the 1110 spike that seems even larger than the initial one?
        This would leave us with two large eruptions in 1108 (Hekla and Asama) and maybe a southern one immediately after. Still a lot of activity in a very short period, which could explain the climate impact.

        P.S. Campi is continuing its slow and steady increase in activity, in case you are interested in some ingv material written in Italian feel free to ask.

  17. Humour:
    “When they said I had an urgent photo-shoot at Segara Anak, I should have expected it would be VR…”

    This is ”Volcano Mountains Crater – Lake Segara Anak” by alexantropov1986, a budget model from CGT.

    PoserPro just laughed when I tried to import its ~14 MB FBX mesh. I applied the hi-res texture and height maps to a square ground-plane, dialled displacement up to 20 in ”Advanced” and rendered with Superfly…

    Took some iteration to get lighting, subdivision and displacement sorta right. Care ”Simple” displacement has lower limit than ”Advanced”.

    • Apologies: Iterating to get a nice render, I accidentally exaggerated vertical scaling. Precise topography seems hard to come by, but much googling suggests lake surface is ~2000 m elevation. with ‘some’ seasonal fluctuation. The ‘old’ cone towering above Eastern rim of caldera summits at 3726 m, so ~1700 m above lake. Which Google Maps reckons is ~4500 m NW/SE (~L/R on render) width at shoreline. Caldera rim diameter ~6000 m on same axis…

      If you can quote better data for this caldera’s size, or a link to accessible digital topography for the surrounds to extend the render, I’d be very grateful.

      Sorry, I still can’t figure why my image insertion did not work…

      • Got ~30 metre resolution ~7 MB zipped GeoTIFF model of ~3/4 Lombok for ~$5_Can from Novlum. Am now playing with several *free* DEM visualisation programs, specifically 3DEM & MicroDEM…

  18. Our modern civilization is very dangerous and destructive

    The whole mankind should stand trail
    For crimes against the natural world
    For crimes against the biological world

    • “stand trail” What? Like a forced march? Japan did that in Bataan. We did the Trail of Tears.

      “against the natural world”… so plowing the turf and planting a garden is included?

      “against the biological world”… mmm… Beef!

      Point of fact. “Corn” as we know it, is not natural at all. It was selected by trial and error until it became the plant we know it as today. Technically, ALL corn is GMO.

      • I was doing a bit of reading about the trail of Tears. The standard ration allowed the forced displacement victims were 4 cups of warm water and a turnip per person per day.

        • Wife’s family on her father’s side was on it-some did take the hint and made out for Oklahoma before the actual Pogom started. My Grandma was Eastern Cherokee , Her family was outside the area that Andrew Jackson’s buddies wanted.
          Wife’s mother’s side hid out in the Appalachians
          and some did belong to the remnant Eastern Cherokee..

  19. Glenn Rivers, I must apologize missing your comment, I have sent a letter to the geological surveys and awaiting their response.
    The caldera I spoke of is Chalpatan and it is an extremely poorly researched volcano but I know it is over 1.2 million years old. There is no data on the composition on the other volcanoes that I know of. I might or might not break up with this volcano depending on what IGEPN says to me. I can’t find anything else and the volcano is stuck in limbo right now. I can’t see any spectrograms to discern any fluid motion within the volcano. It seems like a fruitless endeavor to find more information at this point.

  20. Danish TV2 Lorry reported that 35 billion litres of waste water, including raw sewage, has flowed from Copenhagen into the strait between 2014 and 2018.
    Every year Denmark pours 35 billion tons of untreated human sweage water in the Baltic Sea. Been going on for many years now apparently. This is very weird and competely new information for me. Why is this even allowed in Scandinavia?
    They cannot treat their sewage?

    Not strange then why our ocean is so overfertilized and sick.
    The algae blooms is out of controll.
    Baltic Sea is the worlds most overfertilized ocean. Visibility in Baltic Sea is also one of the lowest of all seas.
    35 billion tons every year is terrible

    Danish mischief!
    They come with agiculture,
    they come with fertilizer
    they come with sewage
    Polluting, breaking, hacking, burning

    Denmark destroys the Baltic sea
    Destroyers, polluters and usurpers,
    CURSE THEM!!!!!

    • Can be incredibly difficult to clean up legacy systems, more if adequate provision for storms, thaw-floods etc.

      UK’s long-vile Mersey Basin required a vast, new ‘interceptor sewer’ network, plus over-sized treatment plants. Liverpool’s big water-front treatment facility was mostly hidden below ground level in an old dock. Further up the coast, at Southport, the sprawling ‘pond farm’ had to be discreetly sited behind levees and a bird-marsh…

      IIRC, there are also tidal factors. The Mersey Basin & Coast have BIG tides. Snag is those often washed back a lot of what had just washed out. The Baltic’s shallow sill and island ‘maze’ means that the hydrology resembles the Black Sea, in that there is scant, often seasonal stirring of the further depths. Much is oxygen-depleted, if not anoxic, hence the frequent discovery of remarkably preserved archaeological artefacts…

      Another issue is the Baltic’s post-glacial isostatic rebound. IIRC, the shallow Gulf of Bothnia is ‘neck & neck’ with Hudson Bay, close to 8mm annual rise, 300~400 metres to go, but slowing…

      Tied to this is the Baltic’s vast watershed, its rivers delivering vast amounts of organics & minerals, especially during Spring thaw. These meet more saline conditions, ‘fog out’…

      ‘Plowshare’ a deep, deep channel through sill & maze ? Non-starter. (*)
      Mitigate / Intercept a zillion local discharge points ? Non-runner.
      Install wind-powered ‘bubblers’ to aerate / oxygenate the stagnant depths ?? Expensive…

      *) A BIG bypass tunnel would work, but require a mega-project akin to Kiel Canal or proposed Gibraltar Barrage…

    • Lincoln University, Pennsylvania,3 May 1946. He had accepted an honorary degree from this black university. From his speech there: “The separation of the races is a disease” It caused him to be listed as a communist sympathiser by the FBI. Of course he was a Jew, and had had his own experience with discrimination. Also from his speech: ” there are prejudices of which I as a Jew am dearly conscious; but they are unimportant in comparison with the attitude of people toward their fellow-citizens of darker complexion”

      • “…listed as a communist sympathiser by the FBI”

        Which was a bit rich coming from J-Edgar, given US segregation, the appalling atrocities across Europe and Asia, plus his personal proclivities…


    A look at Europes Natural fauna
    Before humans destroyed everything

    What Europe woud look like without any human history at all. Eemian interglacial 130 000 years ago was the last time Europe had healthy flora and fauna.
    130 000 years ago Europe was like an African Woodland Savannah with Mastodonts, elephants, lions, rhinos, hyenas, hippos, moose, wolves, bison, aurochs, leopards, cave lions, cave bears, cave leopards, giant wolves, huge members of elephant family, giant bison and giant deer and other
    megafauna walking the primodial European forests…

    Before the last glaciation
    This was before modern super destructive humans arrived in Europe from the South. Once Homo Sapiens arrived the megafauna and enviroments in Europe was doomed…

    Todays biodiversity is nothing compared just before agiculture and specialy just before the megafaunal mass extinction
    ( last time Earth had healthy fauna was during Eemian 140 000 years ago )

    • If I’ve remembered the time-line correctly, the Neanderthals made a fair living from that flora & fauna…

      Still, you’ve prompted me to hunt out info on the Eemian !!

  22. Europe is upgrading the weather.

    The new ECMWF Cycle 47r1 model goes live at the end of this month and is currently running in final release candidate mode.

    If you’ve always wanted to know about the benefits of quintic vertcal interpretation in semi-Lagrangian adevection, it’s all in the video below!

    ECMWF Webinar: new model cycle 47r1 overview by Andy Brown (Director of Research)

  23. Since This is The VC bar off topic
    chit chat

    I think the cause for deadly Alzheimers have been found.
    Its bacterial inflammation that forms the Alzheimers protein patology.
    Its the brains own immune response to celebral bacteria, that forms the plaques. Gum Disease bacteria enters the bloodstream during Gum Disease
    and gets acess to the brain.
    The peridontitis bacteria P Gingivalis, can be found in all Alzheimers brains now, crosses the brain blood barrier. Persons with Alzheimers haves paticulary high levels of these bacteria and their enzymes.
    The Beta Amyloid plaques that AD patients have, often contains these bacteria and also viruses.

    In test animals and nerve cell cultures
    This Gum Disease bacteria instantly causes the Classic Alzheimers patology.
    Rats that where infected with P gingivalis developed the classic Alzheimers brain patology, when the bacteria travelled to the brain.
    The bacterias own enzymes and the brains own defenses, forms these dangerous dementia plaques.
    The bacterial infection, formed Alzheimers patology in their brains.
    Persons with Alzheimers have paticulary High levels of P Gingivalis bacteria enzymes in the brains, as same as the rats had.
    The peridontal bacteria formed classic Alzheimer patology in the test rats
    As They got acess to the brain.

    Still not proof..
    But extremely well done studies
    Alzheimers coud be caused by our own bacteria

    First link uppermost is most significant

    Alzheimers infective origin?

    • Hi Albert this coud be the medical discovery of the centruy: why AD develops.
      Myself have also always suspected bacteria
      After all the mouth flora is very close to the brain, and most of the cells in our body is bacteria.

      I Myself, despite being young have a very long history, of gingvitis and gum disease
      And inflammations.

      My teeth and gums are totaly healthy and fine now:
      I finaly brush the correct way.

      But should I do a PET scan of my brain to see How much amyloid proteins I have developed so far?

      Now back to volcanoes…

  24. so i know this is the bar and topics are general…. so here’s a guy i’ve followed for years…. lives way out on the lip of Alaska in Shifmariff and uses his drone to check on the ice and people lost… he’s a genuine person and deserves decent people followers so if You need to follow one of the last genuine people.. he is it. EskimoFixer/AirLords
    and O Great Albert… if not allowed… please delete. Thanks from hanging in there motsfo and remember : Best! Always!

    Looks fine to me. 😀

  25. Kilauea has been in a drumbeat swarm for 5 days now, these consist of small low frequency (LP) events originating from a depth of around 10 km. During these swarms Kilauea often produces funny-looking rhythmic signals. So far the swarm had been low-level but then it threw this impressive sequence:

    The events are not strong but it stands out for their number, I estimate there are about 300-400 LP events in that 2.75 hour long sequence!

    There must have also been around 200 LP events in the preceding days based on the daily earthquake count excess.

    The swarm is still going on.

    • I have saved pics of previous drumbeat swarms, there were 3 of these particularly strong a month apart from each other in September, October and November 2019. I have been comparing and I think the current one has the highest number of events. The 2019 swarms seem to have had some events with higher amplitudes though.

    • I use the station of Mauna Loa TRAD as a way to know how deep earthquakes from Kilauea are and I have noticed that the LP swarm has ‘shallowed’. During 4 days until yesterday LP earthquakes were ~10 km deep and visible at TRAD, but around 0 UTC today the events became far more frequent and shallow, in fact they seem to have migrated into the south caldera reservoir, about 3-4 km deep and are no longer visible at TRAD.

      Kilauea’s time-depth earthquake plot illustrates the upward shift in earthquake activity, yesterday in Hawaii time, or around 00 UTC today. The shallower LPs seem less energetic with HVO locating a small fraction of them, but hundreds keep striking the summit as shown by seismometers! I am not implying anything about the near-future of Kilauea though, because I have no idea how these might be generated, but hopefully something can be learned from this.

    • The explanation for such swarms appears not to be well known. It is a non-destructive process, and at a period of half a minute to one minute, it is not rock failure. In the swarm above, there seems to be an occasional beat, suggesting two close frequencies are present. Degassing has been suggested. An other option could magma flow through a dike. The magma pressure keeps the dike open but a wider dike increases the flow rate and this reduces the pressure which means the dike begins to close again – and the process repeats. Do this in a dike of a certain length, and you could get a pressure wave traveling back and forth. The drumbeats are the response of the dike to this wave. It is just an idea.

  26. Permo-Triassic Extinction — The smoking, coking gun ??

    Coal-burning in Siberia led to climate change 250 million years ago
    “…first ever direct evidence that extensive coal burning in Siberia is a cause of the Permo-Triassic Extinction, the Earth’s most severe extinction event….”

    References *free*…
    More information: L.T. Elkins-Tanton et al, Field evidence for coal combustion links the 252 Ma Siberian Traps with global carbon disruption, Geology (2020). DOI: 10.1130/G47365.1

    Field evidence for coal combustion links the 252 Ma Siberian Traps with global carbon disruption

    Which links to a *free* PDF of article

    IIRC, been hypothesized, surmised etc that the first magma ‘intrusions’ at what became the Siberian Traps ‘cooked’ the coal-rich strata, out-gassed a massive pulse of greenhouse gasses. A second, ‘volcanic’ out-gassing began some-what later when the flood-basalt surfaced. Hence what appeared as a two-phase extinction event…

    IMHO, they’ve found the smoking, coking ‘gun’ for that first phase…

  27. Has anyone looked at the event at around 16:06 UTC that was widely reported on the big Island? There is no identified quake with it.

    • Volcanoes are always guilty. They just look innocent. It is just hard to know what they are guilty off.

  28. Hi Albert I haves a question
    The macula covers only a tiny bit of the eyes interior

    What woud happen If all of my eyes inside was as densely packed with receptors as the macula?
    What woud I see?

    Whole macula eye .. better vison?

    • IMHO, your night-vision and edge-motion sensitivity would be *very* severely degraded. Remember the trick of averting gaze at night ? Glimpsing family poltercat thieving another thumb-drive from the very ‘corner’ of your vision field ? Spotting converging traffic that’s jumping slip-lane ?

      Forget those…
      Also, IMHO, you would need a vastly bigger ‘optic area’ of brain to begin to handle the data. Your generic B-movie mutant with a hyper-hydrocephalic, beach_ball-sized skull sorta comes close. Also, consequences of such brain-size for energy budget, posture etc etc…

    • what!? Its my comment but Thats not my avatar

      Adim… can you exterminate that blue guy?
      VC Dragons…Incenirate him!

  29. Wow, Nishinoshima is doing lava fountains now:

    The little volcano out in the middle of nowhere is going strong!

    • Yes and the ashy fountains suggest the lava is rather cool and viscous also dull red.
      Basaltic Andesite

        • Actually, very cool (the video that is).

          Nishinoshima is getting very serious with that island building thing. It started out with that tiny little island just off the previous one, then it overtook the predecessor and over the years made a really nice, new volcanic island out of it. Plenty of action in the last few weeks…

        • After some discussion in a VC admin channel, we came up with this;


          2 shots of Absolut
          1 sliver of Fresh Habanero
          1 cinnamon stick.

          Serve on ice. After the icy cool slug of vodka, bite into the habanero slice, scream and run out of the room.

          • Maybe should be soju/shoju?

            Was Nishinoshima the same volcano that was nicknamed “Snoopy” some years back? If so, my how he has grown.

  30. We have some tremor and deep quakes offshore of Pahala. 13:10 for some of the traditional, 16:40 for some more.

    • There was also a 3rd tremor at 17:47, and together with another event the previous day was the 4th Pahala tremor in 24 hours. It is relatively common for deep tremor to come in such clusters.

      Ad today we have an M 4.6 in the decollement fault of Kilauea, too small to have any effect on the rift zone though.

      M 4.6 – 15 km S of Fern Forest, Hawaii – 6.84 km deep – 09:20:01 UTC

    • And for some more news it appears that since about June 10 Pu’u’o’o is inflating in a ‘new’ way.

      Throughout 2019 inflation was centered at a variable distance downrift of Pu’u’o’o. And during the past months things had been relatively quiet in the ERZ except for an episode of inflation in the Jonika area (JOKA) in March-April.

      Inflation has resumed since June 10 but is focused seemingly right beneath Pu’u’o’o, with many stations showing new directions in their movement, JCUZ moving east (vs west in 2019), NPOC moving upwards but with little lateral movement… There is still no detectable SO2 from Pu’u’o’o so it is unlikely the vent will reactivate any time soon, but if inflation continued for long enough who knows…

      • Does this look correct? There are 14 micro rads of change since 6/6/20 This is a instrument just south of the caldera of Kilauea.

        • There must be some problem with that station, its data does not agree with that of other GPS and tiltmeter stations.

          The tilting components would show either inflation south of the caldera (from the area of AHUP) or deflation of Halema’uma’u. But neither of them are happening, AHUP is flat and the tiltmeters around Halema’uma’u and the cross-caldera distance indicate inflation from there.

          • That was my guess also. HOK over by Kona is also having some different readings. I just wrote that off at the time as an instrument issue.

  31. I need an intervention, after months of research and investigating, I can’t walk away. I know it’s pointless but I just can’t. I can’t stop tracking Chiles-cerro negro! Even when the difference in reports is too great, I can’t stop looking can someone please find me another volcano?! IGEPN has 64 quakes this month while SGC reported 966 quakes.

    • I find Mauna Loa a very relaxing volcano. It is definitely building up to something, but it is going so slowly that it is fine not to check any of the plots for a week or two – or three.

    • I would propose my favourite volcano to track, its identity is not much of a mystery I think. But since you are, I believe, more into the silicic endmember I would rather propose Laguna del Maule in Chile.

      Laguna del Maule is inflating faster than any other large caldera in the world and has been doing so for more than a decade, if anything it seems to be speeding up, plus there was a CO2 emission increase this year. I think it is probably in the ramp-up towards its next eruption which will probably be in the VEI 4-6 range plus some effusion. Problem is the eruption could take years or decades to come and in the meantime don’t expect any big changes, just more inflation and earthquakes… You might get to a few days before the eruption and only then the ring fault snaps and you actually see a big precursor (based on how more mafic calderas like Aira or Rabaul behave, too much of a longshot?).

      You also have the neighbours which are Domuyo and Descabezado Grande-Calabozos complex which are also powerful silicic systems under unrest. Particularly Domuyo which is also inflating fast and has had some hydrothermal explosions in past years, but hasn’t erupted in tens of thousands of years, which is kind of confusing because by usual criteria it would be considered extinct.

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