Welcome to the Volcano Café bar, a place for all things on or off topic and inane ramblings. There has been a need of late to find a place better suited to various theories, long comments and enthusiasm. This page will be less moderated than the main article pages and cleared out every month (this may change depending on use).
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Shevluch has already regrown most of its lava dome that was destroyed the other month, and there is probably also another dome that is either about to form or is already erupting on the outer flank of the volcano at the same time.
https://twitter.com/volcaholic1/status/1663510231580549120/photo/2
So we have a gigantic stratovolcano that has just done a VEI 4 and already erupted at two places simultaneously in response… The mountain is 3.2 km high, before the collapse it probably made it past 4 km, probably the biggest active stratovolcano on the planet right now. I think in the longer term it also might be a supervolcano progenitor but doing a VEI 4 once or twice a decade with somes inbetween seems more of its mode of operation right now… 🙂
Yes a prolific producer of sillic magma one may imagine that Shevluch maybe sucking magma from a giant active intermidante composition batholith, must have a copious reserves of sillicate magma .. Probaly underlying rising basaltic magma.. yes seems to be the seed of a large future caldera .. althrough coud be too well vented for that now.
Still not the monster volcanoes I dreams of 😂.. I which there was an ultimate volcano simulator
But Io is the only thing with perhaps Hawaii and Africa thats tastey now for me
No volcano is too large : D
I really want to see a modern CGI simulation of various large eruptions, from VEI 6 and up. Would also love to see simulations of Laki, Thorsja, and Eldgja.
I know there was one from New Zealand showing the first minute or two of a large offshore eruption, but it was a little archaic looking. I want something with all the bells and whistles of 2023 GPU horsepower, and simulated as accurately as possible.
For a smaller eruption I’d really love to see a simulation of Tarawera, that would be a fun one as a whacky basaltic fissure-plinian eruption (with a maar-like blowout of Lake Rotomahana?).
Laki would rather need a Volcanic Effusive Index instead of the Volcanic Explosivity Index.
From an aesthetical point of view I prefer VEI3 explosive volcanic eruptions, because they usually show a broader variety of volcanic phanomena combined with the ash.
I just have difficulty wrapping my mind around the scale of high end explosive volcanism, it’s been an intense fascination of mine. I look at pictures of St Helen’s eruption column from a distance (which looks monstrous) and struggle to even comprehend a Tambora sized event.
What about a simulation of the largest LIP flows ?
Climate & Weather topic: The North Atlantic ocean has got a persistent anticyclone now with center between Ireland and Iceland. It lets the cold and dry continental northeasterly winds dominate in Europe. At the same time a cyclone zone of subtropical depressions has been established to the south of the anticyclone. They bring rain weather to areas where summer usually is a dry season and where tourists are going to travel to.
This does happen some years. It normally means a cold but dry spring here. This year it is dry but the temperatures are holding up.
I remember past year. As soon as we got to May heat-waves started happening and we went into a terrible drought that continued all summer, there were practically no thunderstorms in central Spain past year. This year is the complete opposite, we’ve come from a drought when it should have been raining, and now in May the weather has turned much more unstable, with thunderstorms taking place daily in central Spain, and models show this situation continuing well into June. The weather is still sunny and “nice” in between the thunderstorms. The rain is much appreciated but is still unseasonal and as far as I understand this has been a problem for the cherry harvest.
For Europe it looks like trade winds have moved north. In the past 80% of weather came from the west. The rest was mostly north, south and in between. Eastern direction were the excemption. But since around 2003 wind directions from east and northeast have increased. In Spring and early summer they carry dry and relatively cool air from Russia to Europe. The cool air and comfortable temperatures are good to do sport or hiking outside. They are pleasant for humans. But they hide that at the same time a lack of rain happens. Droughts sometimes come on cool subtle paths, not like an Armageddon heatwave.
The subtropical part of Europe is a bit different to the Temperate zone. The Mediteranean climate in the past had rain in winter and reliably sun in summer. Now it looks like there can be years with drought and years with flood. That’s difficult for agriculture and water management.
Coud Mediterranean turn tropical again ? ( its been before ) If humans dont stop their crazy cO2 output?
Last time it was tropical in terms of winter temperatures in Mediterranean was either Oligocene or Early Miocene
When Mediterranean years up to 30 C in the late summer you gets almost tropical humidity as well as water evaporate and increase humidity, that forms the humid excotic late summer nights in Sicily
This humidity fuels the convective medicanes…
Early summer in Mediterranean and middle is very dry in terms of air when the ocean have not heated up yet. Best time to swim in Mediterranean is August
Heats up for correction
And I never gets thunderstorms : (
I guess .. its too much ocean around the Scandinavian Penninsula, a cool ocean scares away land loving summer convection. Most of my rainfall and snow are from front based nimbostratus precipitation rather than convective rainfall. In summers If long time passes between extratropical cyclones in summers .. we can even get drougths.
Summers in Northen Scandinavia are cool sometimes pleasant. While Summers in South Scandinavia are warm and pleasant. Cumulus convection is quite limited .. its much more common in Finland thats a large landmass joined with Russia.
It may once become different when the Baltic Sea heats like a Scandinavian Mediteranean sea and high (5000km above sea level) cold air comes in from Arctic in fall. If water surface has 20°C and 5000km has -30°C, then you should get nice thunderstorms.
Yes thats a sea rain effect
Cold air over warm water makes convective weather.
Well Mediterranean Sea heats up to 30 C in late summer and add in cooler air above and you even can get tropical cyclones in Mediterranean in Autumn so called ”medicanes”.
Here in Baltic Sea most of the convective weather happens in Early winter during russian cold outbreaks as cold air flows over a warm 16 c Baltic Sea. That forms some intense winter Cumulunimbus and Stockholm can be totaly buried by convective snowfall called a ”snow cannon” althrough winters in South Scandinavia is quite mild..
Western Scandinavia can also get huge snow cumulonimbus If cold winter greenland air flows over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. So convective weather in Northen Europe is often a winter phenomena over the oceans, rather than a summer one. Gothenburg often have winter ligthning If there is souch windflow.
Baltic Sea temperatures range from 2 to 22 C in South open parts and up to 28 C in inner bays at warm summer days. Northen Baltic Sea rarely gets over 15 C in the ocean in summer. The Baltic Sea unlike the Mediterranean is severely Eutrophic
Yes, I remember when I was in Bergen 2005 that in November there were many Cumulunimbus with snow showers offshore on North Sea, while on mainland there was nice sunny weather after some snowfall.
Summer in Scandinavia is difficult for thunderstorms. The sun is still a bit to low and the air is not “explosive” enough. But the future can become different. Climate change is full with surprises.
The worst daily thunderstorms are found in the deep tropics and summer humid subtropics. They may not be supercells but showing Hector them .. they are immense monsters anyway with anvils and overshooting tops for 100 s of km
Spain generaly lacks the humidity for massive thunderstorms
Very limited thunderstorm activity in South Scandinavia as well despite warm summers .. I guess its all cool ocean around it. Same cool ocean prevents Iceland from having any thunderstorms at all
Needs warmer Sea temperatures to allow strong land convection I guess. With a warm inland and cold coast you gets crazy seabreezes too
Tourist weather is also a good time for the next tourist eruption in Iceland, maybe the Department of Tourism should order one 😉
Iceland have crappy weather rainy cold winters and cool rainy summers with only a few t shirt days possible perhaps
But I wants To live there anyway because of the geology 🙂 with a Nordic Citizenship Iceland is easy prey I guess 🙂 looking for useful skills
I love Iceland’s climate, though I’m someone that despises heat and humidity. We’ve been four times in early Icelandic winter and it’s just the perfect refreshing chilliness that wakes me up and makes one feel alive. Granted, we drove to Akureyri this past trip and the north of the country is significantly colder, but it’s not too much different than my deep winter climate at home in the northeast US.
Summers topping out around 15C in Iceland are the real prize, relative to my summers now that are 30+ with high dews.
Ops did not read exactly where you lived Aaa you gets the warmth of the Gulf Stream in summer I guess
Im in South Sweden now .. boring because No volcanoes But better weather than Lapland
Yeah I live in the suburban shadow of NYC. Since the 2015-2016 super El Niño we’ve been dominated by an extremely warm pattern with the southeast / west Atlantic ridge flexing mightily northward inundating us with warmth and humidity even in winter. Had one of the longest streaks of above normal winter temps since the super El Niño.
Interestingly that year the NYC area had one of its biggest all time snowstorms with some locations getting over 30 inches (sorry less familiar with centimeter equations than using temps in C). This storm
Occurring in otherwise one of our warmest winters on record as most of the Continental US was flooded in warm Pac air from the super Niño.
Interestingly our snowiest and coldest winters in my area are during moderate or Modoki Niños and sometimes a La Niña that follows a Niño. Triple dip Niñas like what we just exited flooded us with ridging.
But we can get very cold in winter. The coldest winter reading in the past century at my location was -35C, and routinely we are -10 to 16ish C during winter. I love cold and snow though, ours is just normally strictly limited to deep winter. I would prefer a more uniformly cold climate but I’m an oddity there.
It’ll be quite bad for the planet if we see a super Niño form right now, as it’ll likely surge us beyond 1.5c globally with the massive equatorial heat release.
Fortunately some very smart people I follow are prescribing caution that the trade winds are yet to relax enough to allow the formation of that strong a Niño, among a few other factors. They feel moderate to low end strong is more likely this year, but super is still possible. I’m hoping against that.
I guess you live in South US Gulf Coast or close to it= hellish humid summers for soure unlivable almost.
Yes Icelands climate is not bad, its basicaly like South Sweden, but without a warm summer. I have the same mild winters but I also enjoys pleasant 26 c summers. The only thing thats missing for me in Iceland is a ”warm summer” But I wants live there anyway because of the geology
My wife and I have toyed with applying for work visas. It’s easier for you coming from Sweden but still possible. I also considered attending college there, but what I would want to focus in is partially only in Icelandic instruction. Wife and I have learned quite a bit but it’s a difficult language as a native English speaker.
Though happy to report I impressed a local with my pronunciation of Eyjafjallajökull on our last trip; probably one of their most frequently mispronounced and meme’d on words by other countries.
Really cool language though, essentially one of the oldest and least changed from my understanding and connected to Old Norse.
Kilauea stiring again, one day it will break, somehow and somewhere…
Strong shallow quake at the end of the SWRZ connector, mag ~3 at 2.3 km depth, at 7:20 AM local time. Also a small swarm at the start of the connector at the south caldera area. There have also been a lot of those really tiny quakes plotted on the map again too, which are usually below the range that USGS puts on the map and I think these could be tremors or at least related.
Doesnt mean an eruption is about to break out but these tiny quakes have always become numerous when magma starts rising and in the final days before an intrusion starts. The last 3 eruptions have gone immediately to the surface in under an hour so there was no intrusion phase to speak of exactly but with the lake so high and quakes to quite far down the SWRZ an intrusion and/or eruption there is probably something to consider at this point, especially with the quake above. Although historical ERZ intrusions have usually erupted very soon after onset too… 🙂
Time is wrong, it was at 9:20 AM UTC, so about 11:20 AM local on the island.