The VC Bar

Welcome to the Volcano Café bar, a place for all things on or off topic and inane ramblings. There has been a need of late to find a place better suited to various theories, long comments and enthusiasm. This page will be less moderated than the main article pages and cleared out every month (this may change depending on use).

Have fun and don’t forget to tip the barman 😉

404 thoughts on “The VC Bar

  1. Bit of fun. I have used the recent plot of global temperature change () and plotted the timing of Sgl’s ice core eruptions on it.

    Note: this plot shows temperature _change_, not temperature. It shows whether over a 51-year period, temperature went up or down. If an eruption causes volcanic winter, this shows up _before_ the event, while after the event it shows up as (re-)warming. So look for arrows close to the time where the curve goes from low to high.

    • Thank yopu for these graphs
      Soon we will be back in Eocene in a few generations
      If the current industrial emissions dont stop.
      We humans release almost as much Co2 as Siberian Traps did yearly

      Mangroves and snakes will live in Alberts garden in 400 years
      And caimans and aligators once again will swim in Arctic Ocean
      welcome to the lost humid warm world before the Ice Age

  2. well here we are breaking records all over the place… just set a new high low overnight… wrap Your head around that… 🙂 and i’m loving it …. Best!motsfo

    • We’re into our normal afternoon thunderstorms. 79°F right now with a trembling Pekinese in my lap.

  3. Mauna Loa remains restless. We also had the first shallow earthquake on the north east riftzone – not sure about the significance.

    • Cannot wait for the magma flood
      These channelized superfast flowing lava flows with standing waves and currents in the channels
      Fiery roads.
      maurice and katia krafft made amazing photos and videos of Mauna Loas 1984 lava channels

    • Maurice and Katia krafft where from France…but home was everywhere the earth breathed fire
      Their films and photos are still un-matched today

      Had they been more careful they woud have seen Holuhraun and Leilani

  4. Something entirely different. Since 1990, the Kona coffee growing region on Hawaii has been quite dry. Average rainfall decreased markedly. Hawaii overall is also slowly becoming drier as the storm tracks move north, but this is separate from that. There was a discussion whether this was climate or not, but a possible cause was the Pu’u’O’o eruption: the sulphate aerosols make it harder for rain to form (it causes very small droplets to form which don’t fall down), and the trade wind brought these aerosols to the coffee region. Of course the Pu’u’O’o eruption ended in 2018. I had a look at the rainfall statistics in the Kona coffee region. Indeed, since the volcano dried up, this area has bean much wetter. It will take years to gather enough statistics to confirm a relation, but at first sight this agrees with the idea that volcanoes cause drought.

    black is rainy days and blue is rainfall. This is for Keokea, and is taken from https://www.worldweatheronline.com/keokea-weather-averages/hawaii/us.aspx

  5. Question for all of you.

    Kids historically want to lick the bowl when you make cake batter, some ice creams even feature that flavor.

    How come they don’t want to lick the bowl when you make corn bread?

    • 1. ok, which kid turned You down and
      2. go ahead…. lick it and You will have Your answer.
      3. 🙂
      Best!motsfo and
      ps… You do put some kind of pepper in there, don’t You
      and recently i ran into a rosemary pepper drop biscuit. yummy.

  6. Is the geothermal heat and gas emissions Increasing on Grimsvötns sourthen caldera wall?

  7. Pahala looks restless since the tremor events 4-5 days ago, and earthquakes in unusual locations, a few deep quakes (up to 60 km) on the east side of the swarm and some shallower midway between Pahala and Loi’hi. I don’t know if it is signicant in any way though.

    No more tremor has happened, but I wonder if a bigger tremor burst might be on its way.

    • Keeps going. 11 earthquakes above magnitude 2 just this morning, concentrated in a dense group in the Keaiwa area.

      • Accidentally linked a thumbnail (please an admin delete that link), here better image:

        .

        • The tally for the quakes.
          2019-08-19 11:47:04 2.3 33.8
          2019-08-19 11:34:06 2 34.8
          2019-08-19 11:17:07 2 32.7
          2019-08-19 10:40:14 2 34.6
          2019-08-19 10:19:28 2.3 34.5
          2019-08-19 08:42:14 2.2 34.5
          2019-08-19 08:41:39 1.9 34.3
          2019-08-19 08:31:52 1.9 33.9
          2019-08-19 08:20:35 2 35.3
          2019-08-19 08:10:22 1.8 33.3
          2019-08-19 07:23:58 1.9 35.2
          2019-08-19 06:52:36 2.1 35.1
          2019-08-19 05:26:49 2.2 32.4
          2019-08-19 04:14:30 1.9 33.3
          2019-08-19 03:22:10 2.1 32.9
          2019-08-19 01:24:58 2 34.9
          2019-08-19 00:45:13 2.6 35
          2019-08-19 00:09:51 2.5 0
          2019-08-19 00:00:00 2 36.4

          DAND might be showing a little tremor, I did not check the weather.

          • Seems that Pahala has calmed down a bit for now, though seismometers still show frequent small quakes.

        • Dust Devil
          I can reply to your last statement so I am putting it here.

          “Seems that Pahala has calmed down a bit for now, though seismometers still show frequent small quakes.”

          I was wondering why we have not see any tremor with this batch.
          Looked at all the “other” quakes this year. and with the exception of 2 (32.9 and 20.18) are greater than 35.00 (the 20.18 was preceded by a quake on 3 min prior at 43+km). So, the last batch only had around 4 in the 35/6 depth, no tremor.

          I ran this query back to Jan 1 of 2018. It looks like HVO has only looked back to the beginning of the year. It has much more data for each quake but the depth was the only thing I was looking at.
          time depth mag
          2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z 43.02 2.38
          2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z 45.56 2.18
          2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z 36.92 2.12
          2019-06-01T09:45:14.650Z 40.98 2.03
          2019-05-24T18:05:38.000Z 46.81 2
          2019-05-23T06:07:24.910Z 39.17 2.73
          2019-05-23T06:03:58.630Z 46.48 2.08
          2019-05-17T07:56:19.550Z 42.51 2
          2019-05-17T07:53:06.160Z 45.07 2.02
          2019-05-15T22:44:31.200Z 43.12 2.18
          2019-05-15T10:28:59.840Z 43.07 2.04
          2019-05-15T10:24:13.490Z 44.36 2.01
          2019-04-22T10:45:23.330Z 44.29 2.35
          2019-04-04T04:38:10.550Z 41.73 2.34
          2019-04-02T19:32:42.960Z 20.18 2.53
          2019-04-02T19:29:03.970Z 43.54 2.36
          2019-04-02T19:27:22.960Z 38.33 2.32
          2019-04-02T19:24:19.070Z 46.6 2.27
          2019-04-02T19:21:17.420Z 39.06 2.23
          2019-04-02T06:59:01.110Z 38.7 2.82
          2019-04-02T06:57:24.890Z 40.66 2.76
          2019-03-30T08:21:52.120Z 40.24 2.32
          2019-03-30T08:18:23.530Z 42.22 2.53
          2019-03-30T08:02:54.920Z 35.05 2.26
          2019-03-30T07:52:03.620Z 41.24 2.42
          2019-03-30T04:48:36.480Z 39.15 2.18
          2019-03-30T01:26:23.450Z 41.05 2.34
          2019-03-30T01:24:24.550Z 44.03 2.58
          2019-03-30T00:25:25.830Z 37.08 2.75
          2019-03-28T01:29:34.730Z 39.36 2.04
          2019-03-28T01:18:55.760Z 41.78 2.46
          2019-03-27T23:51:06.310Z 39.7 2.09
          2019-03-27T20:01:02.350Z 40.12 2.13
          2019-03-27T19:54:34.030Z 43.03 2.58
          2019-01-23T12:00:55.030Z 39.69 2.28
          2019-01-23T10:09:00.790Z 32.91 3.05

          Mac

          • This is easier to read

            time depth mag
            2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z 43.02 2.38
            2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z 45.56 2.18
            2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z 36.92 2.12
            2019-06-01T09:45:14.650Z 40.98 2.03
            2019-05-24T18:05:38.000Z 46.81 2
            2019-05-23T06:07:24.910Z 39.17 2.73
            2019-05-23T06:03:58.630Z 46.48 2.08
            2019-05-17T07:56:19.550Z 42.51 2
            2019-05-17T07:53:06.160Z 45.07 2.02
            2019-05-15T22:44:31.200Z 43.12 2.18
            2019-05-15T10:28:59.840Z 43.07 2.04
            2019-05-15T10:24:13.490Z 44.36 2.01
            2019-04-22T10:45:23.330Z 44.29 2.35
            2019-04-04T04:38:10.550Z 41.73 2.34
            2019-04-02T19:32:42.960Z 20.18 2.53
            2019-04-02T19:29:03.970Z 43.54 2.36
            2019-04-02T19:27:22.960Z 38.33 2.32
            2019-04-02T19:24:19.070Z 46.6 2.27
            2019-04-02T19:21:17.420Z 39.06 2.23
            2019-04-02T06:59:01.110Z 38.7 2.82
            2019-04-02T06:57:24.890Z 40.66 2.76
            2019-03-30T08:21:52.120Z 40.24 2.32
            2019-03-30T08:18:23.530Z 42.22 2.53
            2019-03-30T08:02:54.920Z 35.05 2.26
            2019-03-30T07:52:03.620Z 41.24 2.42
            2019-03-30T04:48:36.480Z 39.15 2.18
            2019-03-30T01:26:23.450Z 41.05 2.34
            2019-03-30T01:24:24.550Z 44.03 2.58
            2019-03-30T00:25:25.830Z 37.08 2.75
            2019-03-28T01:29:34.730Z 39.36 2.04
            2019-03-28T01:18:55.760Z 41.78 2.46
            2019-03-27T23:51:06.310Z 39.7 2.09
            2019-03-27T20:01:02.350Z 40.12 2.13
            2019-03-27T19:54:34.030Z 43.03 2.58
            2019-01-23T12:00:55.030Z 39.69 2.28
            2019-01-23T10:09:00.790Z 32.91 3.05

          • Thanks, that shows quite good all the the tremor is usually between 38 and 45 km depth, sourced deeper than the rock fracturing earthquakes like today’s. And I wonder if HVO has stopped tagging the tremor as “other” after July 1, it is quite usefull.

            I don’t think things are over yet, it is not as intense as this morning which was quite an unusual event but is still throwing earthquakes, just a moment ago:

            2019-08-19 22:19:02 2.1 34.1

            Very curious to see if the batch ends up with some nice tremor, and I am wondering what is going on today, speculation: the pressure has raised inside a magma reservoir down there and pushed on the walls or some sort of intrusion is going on, not sure how that would work exactly when it is so deep though.

          • The question is whether the deeper quakes are in the same location or in a slightly different one.

            The current swarm seems to follow two short faults, parallel to the coast, with the one further in-land being slightly deeper. That puts it within the depressed oceanic crust, I think.

          • Deep tremor ususally occurs over an area extending from Pahala to the south/southwest, I remember plotting it in IRIS and it seemed like a tilted conduit rising towards Pahala. Then there is a shallow area of rock fracturing erthquakes 30-33 km focused on 2 swarms one directly beneath Pahala and a second one to the east.

            Activity right now is in a less usual location, deeeper ,34km, and more to the south.

          • I guess (speculation alert) that the rising tremor would indeed be a conduit. The swarms could be due to faults because of an inflating magma chamber. Conduits are more likely to run up, of course, and tend to be close to parallel to the surface. Faults run in any direction.

            Off the coast at Pahala there is a bit of a plateau. Once you are on the plateau, the steepest gradient runs towards the south-southwest.

            That actually suggest another possibility: that the tremor comes from underwater rock slides off the plateau.

          • To clear out confusion, the first 2 Pahalas refer to the swarm, the third to the town of Pahala.

          • The slides should be much shallower than the 40-45 km depth of located tremors. I do trust HVO didn’t mislocate them by 40 km!

          • The depth refers to the actual earthquakes. Not the tremor: it would be hard to measure a precise location for those.

          • The depth error estimates that came with the data show from.5 to 5km estimates of error in the depth..

          • test
            time depth mag
            2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z / 43.02 / 2.38
            2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z / 45.56 / 2.18
            2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z / 36.92 / 2.12

          • Something I looked at a year or two ago…. This is from USGS Jan 1 2018 till today. Min quake mag 1.5 no max. showing both other events and regular quakes.

            Deep quakes 35-55km

            Made me wonder why there were non in the red area.

            In this one 25-35km I don’t think you have to mark the void.

            What I see is an area of mush or magma rising up where quakes can not happen (in the area inside the arc). The deep quakes are cracking around the area, as the mush is pushing SE with the movement of the plate to the NW. So more to the SE as it heats and cracks and the NW is cooling down? Just my opinion.

            Mac

          • Now these kinda breaks my theory of the whole SE thing. It does show a possible conduit up in the middle of the quakes SE of Pahala. This was from Jan. 1 2015 till August of 2017 when we had a ongoing eruption. Now I do see the SE push around Kilauea, and i kinda of see the arc again but not as clear??

            35-55 km

            And 25-35 km

          • The swarm has coincided with a slight deflation at Mauna Loa. It seems to have reduced the pressure under Mauna Loa a bit.

          • Mac, it is something that probably evolves over time more than being fixed, for example around 1960 magma seemed to rise into Kilauea from a location just north of its summit. I picture it as being a complex system of feeder conduits and magma chambers, the 30 km depth was also a change in composition of the mantle if recall right from Klein’s work on the seismicity of Kilauea which could mean the magma stagnates at that depth to evolve and become more buoyant. If there was also some connection between the feeders of Mauna Loa and Kilauea through this system it would explain the relationship between the two which so far is poorly understood. But this again is just another theory which would need of more evidence to confirm.

            Albert, what do you mean by that? I do know that the HVO catalog makes a distinction between long period and short period earthquakes as I have seen that done in publications. Since USGS doesn’t have this distinction for the volcanic long period they clasified them as “other event”, or at least they did so for some time, a commenter here brought that information up. Each time there was a tremor outburst visible in the seismometers several “other events” were located.

            M 3.0 at 12:46, close to the location of the ongoing swarm but only 3 km deep, waiting to see if it gets revised but it wouldn’t be the first time very shallow events accompain the deeper earthquakes.

          • Earthquakes are located by times of arrival at different stations. That is easy with normal earthquakes where the various waves can be distinguished. With tremor-like waves, it is much harder to define a time of arrival of a particular component. Hence, the solution must be poor.

            Depth can also come from reflection from the moho, I think, but the problem remains the same.

          • By far the most intense Pahala swarm since Leilani in terms of number of located earthquakes/time but rather poor in tremor and did not include any large earthquake either, or at least so far. It may have started with tremor in August 12 and 14 but the quakes under the coast near Palima Point didn’t start until the 17th and peaked the 18th, keeps going but at less strenght.

            Mauna Loa seems to have deflated, will be interesting to see how the graph looks in a few days time.

  8. Carl yes I knows Grimsvötn often do medium sized Pheratoplinians and smaller Surtseyan activity and some really large explosive plinian action sometimes
    Mainly because of all the glacial meltwater and icesheet and some magma gases with large supply and hard central caldera roof. Thats been norm in recent Grimsvötn history so far.

    But Probaly very intresting situation is developing on Grimsvötn
    Knowing the volcano is competely open conduited at depths magma chamber – pipe is open and molten down to the hotspot. Only a few other volcanoes are as molten as Grimsvötn is.
    Grimsvötn is open conduit and molten
    This volcano haves good specs for lava lakes.
    With constant magma inflow and hot basaltic and open.
    It just needs to find a permanent pathway up.
    It needs to find a weak spot.
    A weak zone and that coud be Svianukur.
    Here the hot magma is melting its way upwards according to Andrej flis most recent plots.

    Souch an event may start like 2004 but slow down and form a small tuya that grows out the icesheet and there a long lasting lava lake may develop.
    Grimsvotn have not dont that in recent history
    But since its so open conduit it should be possible.

    More correctly spelled version

  9. Beacuse of all the meltwater, lakewater and all that glacial ice:
    All Grimsvötn eruptions will be steamy and ashy and violent at start.

    BUT if Grimsvötn is able to form a permanent pathway up from the upper open conduited magma chamber,
    It coud in theory do a Surtsey like phase in caldera lake and island formation in the glacial lake.
    And later a long lived basaltic lava lake in that tuya.
    But thats an unlikley scenario for now.

    Andrej Flis data suggests that Grimsvötns upper magma chamber is now melting a pathway up in the Sourthen Caldera wall called Svianukur.
    Grimsvötjn have inflated alot since 2011 and the lack of increasing quakes and flatter rise in cumulative seismic plots combined with increased uplift suggest that magma chamber is hot and melting the rockwalls.

    The increased uplift Carl have discovered and the increased Geothermal heat that IMO found at the caldera wall is signs that magma is melting its way up.
    We will see what happens.

    This video shows how geothermal active and steamy Grimsvötn become recently
    Video made in 2018.

  10. Beacuse 1996,1998 and 2004 magmatic materials from Grimsvötn are much more evolved than the 2011 s materials, I suspect that Grimsvötns upper magma chamber are not as molten and fresh mixed as I belived previously. Apparently been cooled during the lull from 1930 s to 1996.
    Souch systems rarely develops permanent open vents

    But after 2011 the upper chamber was rapidy refilled by hot fresh materials
    The current state of Grimsvötns upper magma chamber is intresting

  11. Tesla Roadster returns to Earth

    The Tesla car that was launched into space 18 months ago has just completed its first orbit and is back (more or less) to the place it was launched from. A slight problem is that Earth isn’t there any more – it missed. In fact we are at the far end of our orbit, on the other side of the Sun. Try again.

    https://www.whereisroadster.com

    Of course this is based on information gathered shortly after launch. The car has not been seen by any telescope for a long time.

  12. A green star in Iceland that nobody has mentioned after more than 24h? That must be a first…

    Wednesday 21.08.2019 02:42:13 64.664 -17.456 2.3 km 3.5 99.0 4.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga

    At M3.5 it’s quite small and if BB continues to follow the same pattern as before, it will probably be followed by something like an M4.5 or larger. Looking at KISA and VONC, it seems the GPS trajectories have now returned to showing inflation after a couple of months on holiday. Are these changes related to changes in a magma body, or are they related to seasonal variations in ice and snow thickness? Maybe a bit of both.

      • Nothing within sight would have justified such a reaction. Spandex and Lycra should have licensing requirements in this case.

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