The VC Bar

Welcome to the Volcano Café bar, a place for all things on or off topic and inane ramblings. There has been a need of late to find a place better suited to various theories, long comments and enthusiasm. This page will be less moderated than the main article pages and cleared out every month (this may change depending on use).

Have fun and don’t forget to tip the barman 😉

1,947 thoughts on “The VC Bar

  1. Bit of fun. I have used the recent plot of global temperature change () and plotted the timing of Sgl’s ice core eruptions on it.

    Note: this plot shows temperature _change_, not temperature. It shows whether over a 51-year period, temperature went up or down. If an eruption causes volcanic winter, this shows up _before_ the event, while after the event it shows up as (re-)warming. So look for arrows close to the time where the curve goes from low to high.

    • Thank yopu for these graphs
      Soon we will be back in Eocene in a few generations
      If the current industrial emissions dont stop.
      We humans release almost as much Co2 as Siberian Traps did yearly

      Mangroves and snakes will live in Alberts garden in 400 years
      And caimans and aligators once again will swim in Arctic Ocean
      welcome to the lost humid warm world before the Ice Age

  2. well here we are breaking records all over the place… just set a new high low overnight… wrap Your head around that… 🙂 and i’m loving it …. Best!motsfo

    • We’re into our normal afternoon thunderstorms. 79°F right now with a trembling Pekinese in my lap.

  3. Mauna Loa remains restless. We also had the first shallow earthquake on the north east riftzone – not sure about the significance.

    • Cannot wait for the magma flood
      These channelized superfast flowing lava flows with standing waves and currents in the channels
      Fiery roads.
      maurice and katia krafft made amazing photos and videos of Mauna Loas 1984 lava channels

    • Maurice and Katia krafft where from France…but home was everywhere the earth breathed fire
      Their films and photos are still un-matched today

      Had they been more careful they woud have seen Holuhraun and Leilani

  4. Something entirely different. Since 1990, the Kona coffee growing region on Hawaii has been quite dry. Average rainfall decreased markedly. Hawaii overall is also slowly becoming drier as the storm tracks move north, but this is separate from that. There was a discussion whether this was climate or not, but a possible cause was the Pu’u’O’o eruption: the sulphate aerosols make it harder for rain to form (it causes very small droplets to form which don’t fall down), and the trade wind brought these aerosols to the coffee region. Of course the Pu’u’O’o eruption ended in 2018. I had a look at the rainfall statistics in the Kona coffee region. Indeed, since the volcano dried up, this area has bean much wetter. It will take years to gather enough statistics to confirm a relation, but at first sight this agrees with the idea that volcanoes cause drought.

    black is rainy days and blue is rainfall. This is for Keokea, and is taken from

  5. Question for all of you.

    Kids historically want to lick the bowl when you make cake batter, some ice creams even feature that flavor.

    How come they don’t want to lick the bowl when you make corn bread?

    • 1. ok, which kid turned You down and
      2. go ahead…. lick it and You will have Your answer.
      3. 🙂
      Best!motsfo and
      ps… You do put some kind of pepper in there, don’t You
      and recently i ran into a rosemary pepper drop biscuit. yummy.

  6. Is the geothermal heat and gas emissions Increasing on Grimsvötns sourthen caldera wall?

  7. Pahala looks restless since the tremor events 4-5 days ago, and earthquakes in unusual locations, a few deep quakes (up to 60 km) on the east side of the swarm and some shallower midway between Pahala and Loi’hi. I don’t know if it is signicant in any way though.

    No more tremor has happened, but I wonder if a bigger tremor burst might be on its way.

    • Keeps going. 11 earthquakes above magnitude 2 just this morning, concentrated in a dense group in the Keaiwa area.

      • Accidentally linked a thumbnail (please an admin delete that link), here better image:


        • The tally for the quakes.
          2019-08-19 11:47:04 2.3 33.8
          2019-08-19 11:34:06 2 34.8
          2019-08-19 11:17:07 2 32.7
          2019-08-19 10:40:14 2 34.6
          2019-08-19 10:19:28 2.3 34.5
          2019-08-19 08:42:14 2.2 34.5
          2019-08-19 08:41:39 1.9 34.3
          2019-08-19 08:31:52 1.9 33.9
          2019-08-19 08:20:35 2 35.3
          2019-08-19 08:10:22 1.8 33.3
          2019-08-19 07:23:58 1.9 35.2
          2019-08-19 06:52:36 2.1 35.1
          2019-08-19 05:26:49 2.2 32.4
          2019-08-19 04:14:30 1.9 33.3
          2019-08-19 03:22:10 2.1 32.9
          2019-08-19 01:24:58 2 34.9
          2019-08-19 00:45:13 2.6 35
          2019-08-19 00:09:51 2.5 0
          2019-08-19 00:00:00 2 36.4

          DAND might be showing a little tremor, I did not check the weather.

          • Seems that Pahala has calmed down a bit for now, though seismometers still show frequent small quakes.

        • Dust Devil
          I can reply to your last statement so I am putting it here.

          “Seems that Pahala has calmed down a bit for now, though seismometers still show frequent small quakes.”

          I was wondering why we have not see any tremor with this batch.
          Looked at all the “other” quakes this year. and with the exception of 2 (32.9 and 20.18) are greater than 35.00 (the 20.18 was preceded by a quake on 3 min prior at 43+km). So, the last batch only had around 4 in the 35/6 depth, no tremor.

          I ran this query back to Jan 1 of 2018. It looks like HVO has only looked back to the beginning of the year. It has much more data for each quake but the depth was the only thing I was looking at.
          time depth mag
          2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z 43.02 2.38
          2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z 45.56 2.18
          2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z 36.92 2.12
          2019-06-01T09:45:14.650Z 40.98 2.03
          2019-05-24T18:05:38.000Z 46.81 2
          2019-05-23T06:07:24.910Z 39.17 2.73
          2019-05-23T06:03:58.630Z 46.48 2.08
          2019-05-17T07:56:19.550Z 42.51 2
          2019-05-17T07:53:06.160Z 45.07 2.02
          2019-05-15T22:44:31.200Z 43.12 2.18
          2019-05-15T10:28:59.840Z 43.07 2.04
          2019-05-15T10:24:13.490Z 44.36 2.01
          2019-04-22T10:45:23.330Z 44.29 2.35
          2019-04-04T04:38:10.550Z 41.73 2.34
          2019-04-02T19:32:42.960Z 20.18 2.53
          2019-04-02T19:29:03.970Z 43.54 2.36
          2019-04-02T19:27:22.960Z 38.33 2.32
          2019-04-02T19:24:19.070Z 46.6 2.27
          2019-04-02T19:21:17.420Z 39.06 2.23
          2019-04-02T06:59:01.110Z 38.7 2.82
          2019-04-02T06:57:24.890Z 40.66 2.76
          2019-03-30T08:21:52.120Z 40.24 2.32
          2019-03-30T08:18:23.530Z 42.22 2.53
          2019-03-30T08:02:54.920Z 35.05 2.26
          2019-03-30T07:52:03.620Z 41.24 2.42
          2019-03-30T04:48:36.480Z 39.15 2.18
          2019-03-30T01:26:23.450Z 41.05 2.34
          2019-03-30T01:24:24.550Z 44.03 2.58
          2019-03-30T00:25:25.830Z 37.08 2.75
          2019-03-28T01:29:34.730Z 39.36 2.04
          2019-03-28T01:18:55.760Z 41.78 2.46
          2019-03-27T23:51:06.310Z 39.7 2.09
          2019-03-27T20:01:02.350Z 40.12 2.13
          2019-03-27T19:54:34.030Z 43.03 2.58
          2019-01-23T12:00:55.030Z 39.69 2.28
          2019-01-23T10:09:00.790Z 32.91 3.05


          • This is easier to read

            time depth mag
            2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z 43.02 2.38
            2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z 45.56 2.18
            2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z 36.92 2.12
            2019-06-01T09:45:14.650Z 40.98 2.03
            2019-05-24T18:05:38.000Z 46.81 2
            2019-05-23T06:07:24.910Z 39.17 2.73
            2019-05-23T06:03:58.630Z 46.48 2.08
            2019-05-17T07:56:19.550Z 42.51 2
            2019-05-17T07:53:06.160Z 45.07 2.02
            2019-05-15T22:44:31.200Z 43.12 2.18
            2019-05-15T10:28:59.840Z 43.07 2.04
            2019-05-15T10:24:13.490Z 44.36 2.01
            2019-04-22T10:45:23.330Z 44.29 2.35
            2019-04-04T04:38:10.550Z 41.73 2.34
            2019-04-02T19:32:42.960Z 20.18 2.53
            2019-04-02T19:29:03.970Z 43.54 2.36
            2019-04-02T19:27:22.960Z 38.33 2.32
            2019-04-02T19:24:19.070Z 46.6 2.27
            2019-04-02T19:21:17.420Z 39.06 2.23
            2019-04-02T06:59:01.110Z 38.7 2.82
            2019-04-02T06:57:24.890Z 40.66 2.76
            2019-03-30T08:21:52.120Z 40.24 2.32
            2019-03-30T08:18:23.530Z 42.22 2.53
            2019-03-30T08:02:54.920Z 35.05 2.26
            2019-03-30T07:52:03.620Z 41.24 2.42
            2019-03-30T04:48:36.480Z 39.15 2.18
            2019-03-30T01:26:23.450Z 41.05 2.34
            2019-03-30T01:24:24.550Z 44.03 2.58
            2019-03-30T00:25:25.830Z 37.08 2.75
            2019-03-28T01:29:34.730Z 39.36 2.04
            2019-03-28T01:18:55.760Z 41.78 2.46
            2019-03-27T23:51:06.310Z 39.7 2.09
            2019-03-27T20:01:02.350Z 40.12 2.13
            2019-03-27T19:54:34.030Z 43.03 2.58
            2019-01-23T12:00:55.030Z 39.69 2.28
            2019-01-23T10:09:00.790Z 32.91 3.05

          • Thanks, that shows quite good all the the tremor is usually between 38 and 45 km depth, sourced deeper than the rock fracturing earthquakes like today’s. And I wonder if HVO has stopped tagging the tremor as “other” after July 1, it is quite usefull.

            I don’t think things are over yet, it is not as intense as this morning which was quite an unusual event but is still throwing earthquakes, just a moment ago:

            2019-08-19 22:19:02 2.1 34.1

            Very curious to see if the batch ends up with some nice tremor, and I am wondering what is going on today, speculation: the pressure has raised inside a magma reservoir down there and pushed on the walls or some sort of intrusion is going on, not sure how that would work exactly when it is so deep though.

          • The question is whether the deeper quakes are in the same location or in a slightly different one.

            The current swarm seems to follow two short faults, parallel to the coast, with the one further in-land being slightly deeper. That puts it within the depressed oceanic crust, I think.

          • Deep tremor ususally occurs over an area extending from Pahala to the south/southwest, I remember plotting it in IRIS and it seemed like a tilted conduit rising towards Pahala. Then there is a shallow area of rock fracturing erthquakes 30-33 km focused on 2 swarms one directly beneath Pahala and a second one to the east.

            Activity right now is in a less usual location, deeeper ,34km, and more to the south.

          • I guess (speculation alert) that the rising tremor would indeed be a conduit. The swarms could be due to faults because of an inflating magma chamber. Conduits are more likely to run up, of course, and tend to be close to parallel to the surface. Faults run in any direction.

            Off the coast at Pahala there is a bit of a plateau. Once you are on the plateau, the steepest gradient runs towards the south-southwest.

            That actually suggest another possibility: that the tremor comes from underwater rock slides off the plateau.

          • To clear out confusion, the first 2 Pahalas refer to the swarm, the third to the town of Pahala.

          • The slides should be much shallower than the 40-45 km depth of located tremors. I do trust HVO didn’t mislocate them by 40 km!

          • The depth refers to the actual earthquakes. Not the tremor: it would be hard to measure a precise location for those.

          • The depth error estimates that came with the data show from.5 to 5km estimates of error in the depth..

          • test
            time depth mag
            2019-07-01T20:24:34.460Z / 43.02 / 2.38
            2019-06-02T02:40:37.120Z / 45.56 / 2.18
            2019-06-01T09:50:18.670Z / 36.92 / 2.12

          • Something I looked at a year or two ago…. This is from USGS Jan 1 2018 till today. Min quake mag 1.5 no max. showing both other events and regular quakes.

            Deep quakes 35-55km

            Made me wonder why there were non in the red area.

            In this one 25-35km I don’t think you have to mark the void.

            What I see is an area of mush or magma rising up where quakes can not happen (in the area inside the arc). The deep quakes are cracking around the area, as the mush is pushing SE with the movement of the plate to the NW. So more to the SE as it heats and cracks and the NW is cooling down? Just my opinion.


          • Now these kinda breaks my theory of the whole SE thing. It does show a possible conduit up in the middle of the quakes SE of Pahala. This was from Jan. 1 2015 till August of 2017 when we had a ongoing eruption. Now I do see the SE push around Kilauea, and i kinda of see the arc again but not as clear??

            35-55 km

            And 25-35 km

          • The swarm has coincided with a slight deflation at Mauna Loa. It seems to have reduced the pressure under Mauna Loa a bit.

          • Mac, it is something that probably evolves over time more than being fixed, for example around 1960 magma seemed to rise into Kilauea from a location just north of its summit. I picture it as being a complex system of feeder conduits and magma chambers, the 30 km depth was also a change in composition of the mantle if recall right from Klein’s work on the seismicity of Kilauea which could mean the magma stagnates at that depth to evolve and become more buoyant. If there was also some connection between the feeders of Mauna Loa and Kilauea through this system it would explain the relationship between the two which so far is poorly understood. But this again is just another theory which would need of more evidence to confirm.

            Albert, what do you mean by that? I do know that the HVO catalog makes a distinction between long period and short period earthquakes as I have seen that done in publications. Since USGS doesn’t have this distinction for the volcanic long period they clasified them as “other event”, or at least they did so for some time, a commenter here brought that information up. Each time there was a tremor outburst visible in the seismometers several “other events” were located.

            M 3.0 at 12:46, close to the location of the ongoing swarm but only 3 km deep, waiting to see if it gets revised but it wouldn’t be the first time very shallow events accompain the deeper earthquakes.

          • Earthquakes are located by times of arrival at different stations. That is easy with normal earthquakes where the various waves can be distinguished. With tremor-like waves, it is much harder to define a time of arrival of a particular component. Hence, the solution must be poor.

            Depth can also come from reflection from the moho, I think, but the problem remains the same.

          • By far the most intense Pahala swarm since Leilani in terms of number of located earthquakes/time but rather poor in tremor and did not include any large earthquake either, or at least so far. It may have started with tremor in August 12 and 14 but the quakes under the coast near Palima Point didn’t start until the 17th and peaked the 18th, keeps going but at less strenght.

            Mauna Loa seems to have deflated, will be interesting to see how the graph looks in a few days time.

  8. Carl yes I knows Grimsvötn often do medium sized Pheratoplinians and smaller Surtseyan activity and some really large explosive plinian action sometimes
    Mainly because of all the glacial meltwater and icesheet and some magma gases with large supply and hard central caldera roof. Thats been norm in recent Grimsvötn history so far.

    But Probaly very intresting situation is developing on Grimsvötn
    Knowing the volcano is competely open conduited at depths magma chamber – pipe is open and molten down to the hotspot. Only a few other volcanoes are as molten as Grimsvötn is.
    Grimsvötn is open conduit and molten
    This volcano haves good specs for lava lakes.
    With constant magma inflow and hot basaltic and open.
    It just needs to find a permanent pathway up.
    It needs to find a weak spot.
    A weak zone and that coud be Svianukur.
    Here the hot magma is melting its way upwards according to Andrej flis most recent plots.

    Souch an event may start like 2004 but slow down and form a small tuya that grows out the icesheet and there a long lasting lava lake may develop.
    Grimsvotn have not dont that in recent history
    But since its so open conduit it should be possible.

    More correctly spelled version

  9. Beacuse of all the meltwater, lakewater and all that glacial ice:
    All Grimsvötn eruptions will be steamy and ashy and violent at start.

    BUT if Grimsvötn is able to form a permanent pathway up from the upper open conduited magma chamber,
    It coud in theory do a Surtsey like phase in caldera lake and island formation in the glacial lake.
    And later a long lived basaltic lava lake in that tuya.
    But thats an unlikley scenario for now.

    Andrej Flis data suggests that Grimsvötns upper magma chamber is now melting a pathway up in the Sourthen Caldera wall called Svianukur.
    Grimsvötjn have inflated alot since 2011 and the lack of increasing quakes and flatter rise in cumulative seismic plots combined with increased uplift suggest that magma chamber is hot and melting the rockwalls.

    The increased uplift Carl have discovered and the increased Geothermal heat that IMO found at the caldera wall is signs that magma is melting its way up.
    We will see what happens.

    This video shows how geothermal active and steamy Grimsvötn become recently
    Video made in 2018.

  10. Beacuse 1996,1998 and 2004 magmatic materials from Grimsvötn are much more evolved than the 2011 s materials, I suspect that Grimsvötns upper magma chamber are not as molten and fresh mixed as I belived previously. Apparently been cooled during the lull from 1930 s to 1996.
    Souch systems rarely develops permanent open vents

    But after 2011 the upper chamber was rapidy refilled by hot fresh materials
    The current state of Grimsvötns upper magma chamber is intresting

  11. Tesla Roadster returns to Earth

    The Tesla car that was launched into space 18 months ago has just completed its first orbit and is back (more or less) to the place it was launched from. A slight problem is that Earth isn’t there any more – it missed. In fact we are at the far end of our orbit, on the other side of the Sun. Try again.

    Of course this is based on information gathered shortly after launch. The car has not been seen by any telescope for a long time.

  12. A green star in Iceland that nobody has mentioned after more than 24h? That must be a first…

    Wednesday 21.08.2019 02:42:13 64.664 -17.456 2.3 km 3.5 99.0 4.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga

    At M3.5 it’s quite small and if BB continues to follow the same pattern as before, it will probably be followed by something like an M4.5 or larger. Looking at KISA and VONC, it seems the GPS trajectories have now returned to showing inflation after a couple of months on holiday. Are these changes related to changes in a magma body, or are they related to seasonal variations in ice and snow thickness? Maybe a bit of both.

      • Nothing within sight would have justified such a reaction. Spandex and Lycra should have licensing requirements in this case.

  13. Grimsvötn 2011 was pretty impressive for a hot thoelitic basalt eruption.

    Grimsvötn 2011 was so powerful the first day and so quickly that it prouduced huge lumps of very mafic Thoelite basalt pumice with gases locked inside.
    There are huge thick black pumice beds near Grimsvötn from that event now buried in the snow.
    Mafic Thoelitic pumice are very very rare.
    As most often the gases bubbles out these very fluid basaltic lavas.
    2011 the magmas rised so rapidly that gases coud not escape and kaboom
    In other ways the magma rised very quickly from deep beneath the volcano. This is consistent with the very intense eruption. Eruptive rates the first hours was more than 11 000 cubic meters a second.
    Lots of lapilli and and ash was produced too.
    2011 was a very impressive event and Grimsvötn can do much more.
    There probaly been many souch Grimsvötn eruptions in the past some are good sized VEI 5

    • Tremor showing strong in the seismometers just a moment ago. Two located events:

      2019-08-23 10:40:29 M 2.3 48.7 km
      2019-08-23 10:22:14 M 2.4 40.7 km

      10:22 is in the typical location of “other” events, while 10:40 is deeper and more to the east.

      The deep earthquakes yesterday in the usual location:

      2019-08-22 22:04:41 M 2 44.7 km
      2019-08-22 21:51:26 M 1.8 37.3 km
      2019-08-22 21:41:52 M 2.2 38.9 km
      2019-08-22 21:25:48 M 1.9 39.7 km
      2019-08-22 21:23:45 M 1.8 37.1 km
      2019-08-22 21:23:03 M 1.9 39.3 km

      • Rock fracture earthquakes are continuing in the same location since August 17 near Palima Point, the episode of unrest shows no signs of stopping for now.

        2019-08-23 19:33:34 M 2.1 32.9 km
        2019-08-23 18:22:02 M 2 32.3 km
        2019-08-23 17:16:41 M 2 34.3 km
        2019-08-23 15:54:07 M 1.8 32.8 km

    • M 3.2 – 8km SE of Pahala, Hawaii
      2019-08-24 14:51:29 (UTC) 19.144°N 155.436°W 35.7 km depth

  14. While researching something unrelated(*), I noticed and followed some web-links about back-arc spreading and basins.

    As I understand it, most volcanic arcs are due to volatiles promptly cooking out of a subducting oceanic plate and acting as a ‘flux’.

    Okay, there are some weird ones, like Mt. St Helens, Yellowstone, Vesuvius / Ischia / Phlegraean Fields etc where it seems the descending slab breaks or tears, opening a local window to let ‘Deep Stuff’ rise.
    ( And, yes, the consequences can be apocalyptic, almost ‘Lovecraftian’…)

    If, after losing those volatiles, the slab stays intact, it may descend a lot further before its not-so-volatiles become hot enough to cook, then start upwards. Which, given the angle, becomes the back-arc spreading axis…

    So far, so good.

    But despite much Googling, I can’t seem to find a coherent explanation of the evolution through volcanic arc to back-arc basin and/or spreading.

    Too many descriptions hand-wave magma ‘contra-flows’, where the volcanic arc’s undercurrents some-how fail to interfere with the back-arc’s processes. And, as for any transition between modes…

    I know understanding is ‘in flux’, and Japanese arc studies may resolve the apparent paradox, but can any-one point me to a non-paywalled ‘state of play’ ??

    *) Genetics of the giant Californian sea-slug: Don’t ask…

    • A back-arc rift forms due to trench retreat, as an example the fastest rifting area of the planet: the Lau Basin. The Pacific Plate moves towards the Tonga Trench at 8 cm/year or so, however you get an actual subduction rate of 23 cm/year (if I remember right) as the trench moves back towards the Pacific spreading ridge. This usually happens with dense cold oceanic lithosphere that sinks easily. When the trench goes backwards the overriding plate rushes to fill the gap and it tears appart, the volcanic arc oppens like a zipper and new crust forms. Mantle material rushes to fill the area which descompresses as the subduction retreats, with the Lau basin buoyant material from the Samoan hotspot moves in which might be boosting all the action going on there.

      • Thank you.
        ‘Slab Roll-Back’ makes sense, even if my wits boggle due to the side-flows.
        Yes,stalled roll-backs would account for when a subduction zone sorta jumps seawards then starts over, creating interesting accretion terranes…
        Much more reading required.

  15. Carl If Grimsvötn 2004 continued to erupt after that tuff cone emerged in the meltwater lake, it woud grow even more and magma and water woud isolate from eachother. Lava woud fountain and flow out? Correct?

  16. The Mauna Loa PHAN GPS has suddenly reversed direction. This may be (indirectly) related to the Pahala swarm

    • The earthquake rates also seem to have dropped through the month, it is too early to tell if this is significant though.

    • The previous warning was for 23,000 ft or 7000 meters. The warning about a cloud to 70,000 ft was not confirmed by anyone else and may have been a mistake.

    • Even if that would have been true it would have been 23 000 metres, and that is regular for a VEI-4, naturally depending on the time the eruption lasts.

      But, here is the thing with the VAAC warnings is that they are almost always 3 times the height of the actual sighted plume. This is so that airplanes will have a large safety margin.

      In this case we end up with 23000ft (7000m), equals 1/3. This is normally the height of a large VEI-2 or a small VEI-3, depending on eruption time.

  17. Carl I have a question about Grimsvötn
    Is It possible for a more permanent vent at Grimsvötn?

    Grimsvötn haves the highest magma inflow in entire Iceland. Grimsvötn is competely open conduited it seems and very molten and fresh at high eruptive frequency.
    I knows that the caldera floor resistance and Ice and water tends to make it short lived and explosive.

    But because its so open conduited in Grimsvötn, is it possible for a 2004 surtseyan like phase and later open tuya lava lake – shield vent in Grimsvötn?

    • The 2011 invisible submarine lava flow in Grimsvötn caldera lake..
      They where not any slow pillow lavas..
      When lava flows rapidly underwater it forms raging flows / rivers just like on land: souch submarine flows are callled ”sheet flows” .
      Grimsvötn 2011 was both a edge VEI 5 pheratoplinian but an effusive Holuhraun on the lake glacial floor too.
      This New lava layer in caldera floor explains why lake levels are higher now than just before 2011


      WTNT35 KNHC 281744

      Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
      200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019


      LOCATION…18.3N 65.0W

    • Latest NHC cone

      Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 21
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
      1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

      …The updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.


      INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
      12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
      24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
      36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
      48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
      72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
      96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
      120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND

      Forecaster Brown

  18. Lurk?? How are You? Which way do You think Dorian’s going? Thinking of You… Be Safe… is everyone else in the path? Best!motsfo

    • Despite the hyperventilating press, the GFS model run shows it having trouble maintaining warm core circulation. This thing is not what the alarmists claim it is.

      • Latest GFS

        It’s the NHC warning of a potential land-falling major – good if they are wrong but alarmist?

      • Dunno, but I do know that Dept of Forestry has already started moving water rescue teams towards that end of the state. From what I hear, Blackwater is preparing a second team to send that way.

  19. Help me here! can I get the most detailed satelite feed of that hurricane?
    All weather satelites I finds on internet on Huricane Dorian are not closeups : (

    • Yes, that was noticed. But the upward motion seems to have continued, or at least not shown deflation. Some GPS seems to show southward motion. The Pahala quakes may cause some slip of Mauna Loa. I would expect that the inflation/extension will resume in a few months.

      • I don’t see how the Pahala quakes may have caused slip of the edifice, you do require much more energetic earthquakes and located at the base of the island’s lava pile (usually 6-10 km).

        PHAN and MSLP may be starting to show a slowdown or reversal of the inflation but it seems a bit too soon to tell.

  20. The EGR1 model seems to be obsessed about Dorian making Cat – 5. I guess that’s okay, the TAB series as normal, project the track all over the place, even making loop-de-loops.

    As for the twits at the Weather Channel™ lambasting online weather products, when they can get the rotation direction for northern hemisphere lows correct, MAYBE I’ll put some stock in what their “Certified” opinion is about the weather.

    Earlier this year, when one of the “experts” eagerly pointed at a rear flank down-draft in a thunderstorm on a Doppler display and call it the tornado… I was on the floor laughing.

    Side note.. I am NOT an expert and have never claimed to be. If you don’t like what I say, that’s your prerogative. My only advice in any calamity, is “Don’t be there.” If what you are going to face is beyond your ability to deal with it, the responsibility for whatever happens is on you. The pathetic part is that generally, someone from the emergency services may have to risk their lives to extricate you from the problem that YOU got yourself into. Yeah, people doing emergency services live an breath that life-style, but they don’t need to be put in danger unnecessarily when a little bit of fore thought you your part could have prevented the incident.

    The thing is over a 1000 miles from here and people are already starting to stockpile supplys. At 240 feet above sea-level, I’m not concerned about storm surge. A meteor impact in the Gulf of Mexico might be a problem, but storm surge… nah.

    • 803
      WTNT35 KNHC 311455

      Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
      1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019


      LOCATION…26.0N 73.4W




      A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
      * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

      A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
      * Andros Island

      A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

      A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

      Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida later today.

      …Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

      • German ICON the first of the global models to take that jump back to the left – will the others follow?

          • Hopefully not but the ICON has been fairly good with Dorian’s track up to now. Latest GFS, Legacy GFS and Canadian world models have all moved back westwards with the latest runs again although not as far as the ICON. Last UKMET ensemble mean pretty much goes right up through Florida as well even if the operational stays offshore.

            Apparently two air sampling flights were cancelled due to technical problems yesterday and the models didn’t have all the expected data for last night’s runs which wouldn’t have helped.

          • Latest Euro run stays offshore but two of it’s ensemble members see what the ICON is sniffing at and head for Miami – a few more still make landfall further up the Florida coast.

            I wouldn’t like to be in The Bahamas at the moment.

          • Latest Euro parks Dorian’s eye-wall over Grand Bahama for about 24 hours.

        • UKMET 12z run ensembles just out. Yet again the ensemble members stay on-shore. Either the higher resolution operational runs are seeing more relevant detail or they’re hallucinating it. This isn’t a good time for missing input data. After tonight’s runs digest the flight data the picture might be clearer tomorrow.

          • It will depend on forward speed and the front that is digging down. That gives two possible solutions (north or west) although the likelihood is for the northward turn. It may touch category 5 but it will get a little better (weaker) with time, so slower can be good. The worst case is where the eye stays 20 miles off shore. Cape Fear may be the most likely place for landfall.

          • Slow moving with the eye outside the coast would be something never seen, but the effects would pretty much wreck eastern Floridas coastline.

          • 18z ICON still heading for South Florida, landfall about Fort Lauderdale.

          • Still very uncertain, I think. There is a good chance (‘good’ in every meaning) that it will remain some distance off-shore.

          • Latest GFS trends back west but not as far as Florida landfall (yet anyway?) Wouldn’t be too surprised if HWRF and/or HMON specialist hurricane models, based on this GFS, get very close to Florida.

            Apparently some new sampling data made it into the run but most still will have to wait for 0000z runs.

        • Any good satelite tools over Dorian?
          Snow me best page I can watch it from satelite

        • Looks like I hit a the spam filter with earlier post but latest HWRF does indeed have Florida landfall.

          • See if this works


            There’s a lot of uncertainty at close timescales about Dorian.

          • GFS finally woke up to current Florida landfall possibilities with a few new ensemble members heading that way.

            NOTE: I’m not saying Dorian is heading for Florida. Just that some of the models tried to close that off too early and even the GFS has backtracked a bit now.

          • Well, my cousin is headed out to her rental property with her son to put in a set of sand bags at the entrance ways in North Carolina. This weekend’s reservation already canceled.

          • IBM Weather’s new “super duper” model going for Florida landfall


            Michael Ventrice
            ‏Verified account @MJVentrice

            Here is the full 18z #IBM MPAS model run hot off the press. This model cycle promotes a scenario of #Dorian landfalling across eastern Florida, similar to what the 18z HWRF promotes. The model brings Dorian up the spine of Florida. I’ll share future updates on this model tomorrow

  21. Sliding in here to Thank everyone for the prayers for rain…(except You, Carl 🙂 i’m thanking You for the good intentions ) The expected (but not gaureented) rain did come and is giving us the much needed doucing. Looking forward to the next band which should be in here Sunday…. Lurk…. be careful… as well as everyone else. Best!motsfo

    • Good that you got your rain.
      Now, I will return to watching how Father Ted is chased by the nuns.

    • “Ted?”

      As for the storm… most projections have it doing a hard right in the near future, even the official NHC projected track. All models that I have seen other than the EGR1, have it projected as steadily loosing intensity. EGR1 is still obsessed with it going to Cat-5, and the typical “wingnut” TAB series have it doing contortions with it’s track. (You can almost always count on a TAB model to keep you entertained) I literally would not be surprised for a TAB model to project it hitting Olympus Mons. I’m not sure what all goes into the TAB models, but it has to be a hoot.

      NHC projects Tropical Storm force winds {34+kts} MAY reach Tallahassee by Tuesday (5% chance), but that is 199 miles to the East of me. I”m actually more worried about the Low out of the Bay of Campeche. It’s a bit late for Campeche to be a threat basin, but it could still happen. Usually Cape Verde systems are the main threat this time of year. (Dorian is actually a Cape Verde system, it crossed as a tropical wave before getting organized.) {And yes, Camille in 1969 did the same thing. But I was eight and did not even know what Jim Beam was.}

      • Father Tes is an Irish TV series about 3 priests on Craggy Island. The tv-series is known for using the word “feck” more times per episode than any other.
        It is hilarious.

  22. For the flying minded among us. NTSB’s preliminary report regarding the Earnhardt Jr’s crash from a few weeks ago.

    Some have noted the interesting “The engines didn’t respond as expected” line in the document as possibly pointing to performance issues, others have noted that the aircraft came it a bit fast for the size runway they had available. All the prelim report really does is note the known facts of the incident and does not try to answer the “why.” {Which could easily take a year to be determined and published} Spoiler Alert: Both the pilot and co-pilot were type rated and certified for their positions and held many hours of experience doing so.

    On a macabre note… now his wife knows what it’s like to go sliding across the grass at 100+ mph. (One of the likely reasons that Earnhardt Jr. retired from actual racing. Get enough injuries over time and it can do you in. Damage is cumulative even if you “recover.”)

    • To me as a flight Instructor I read this as an unstablized approach. Speed control or the lack of was apparent.unless they had ,say bird strikes.
      The Citation seires of aircraft are pilot friendly some are Single Pilot in operation.
      What little time I have in one (right seat) they are easier to handle than the Cessna
      300/400 series of twins. The NTSB works mightily to find “Pilot Error.” as the cause..
      I’ve been in front of them . I know…

    • Now officially Cat 5!

      Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
      800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019


      LOCATION…26.5N 76.5W

  23. Oh dear. I feel for Grand Bahama. We holidayed there a few years ago and it is a delightful place. So friendly. I wish them the best, and our friends in Florida, too.

  24. Wow!

    9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
    Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W
    Moving: W at 8 mph
    Min pressure: 922 mb
    Max sustained: 175 mph

    • The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
      the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
      there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
      it passes over your location.

      Wind Gusts over 200 mph
      Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves

      These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
      and will continue for several hours.

  25. 000
    WTNT35 KNHC 011456

    Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 33
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
    1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019


    LOCATION…26.5N 76.8W


    A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from
    north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

    A Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield
    Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

  26. Trying to do the maths, What’s the energy per drop? Assume freshwater density of is1000 kg/m3.

    ‘A large raindrop, about one-quarter of an inch across or about the size of a house fly, has terminal fall speeds of about 10 meters per second or about 20 mph. That kind of speed can cause compaction and erosion of the soil by their force of impact.’10 Sep 2013

    • About 6 mJ per rain drop. But that is not the relevant number. The impact takes about 1ms, and is spread over 30 square mm. The force becomes just over 1N and the pressure 40 kN/m^2 – but only very briefly.

          • Definitely. But the rain drops may be smaller than this if the wind blows them apart.

          • I never bothered to check, I was busing with the going bonkers part by then… I only remember the hurt like anus part.

        • Definitely true. I had wind driven 80 knot rain drive me back inside the ship when I was stupid enough to peek out a door. (We were still at Sea and Anchor detail coming out of Pearl Harbor, not quite to the outer buoy)

          • Thanks, Not thought of it as impact and wind changing drop size. If I can work out impact of one drop, at that speed what materials would the rain alone damage was how I was thinking. I’ve got some numbers, will revisit and let you know.

  27. Landfall marked officially as 911mb with sustained winds of 185mph

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
    satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
    EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
    to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
    911 mb (26.90 inches).

    LOCATION…26.5N 77.0W

    Forecaster Avila/Blake

    • They just mentioned that before they lost contact with their reporters on Abaco, they were talking of measured readings of 200mph! Their meteorologist stated that these were likely gusts but they will closely analyse recorded data and didn’t rule out sustained.

    • I hold that as questionable. 909 mb supports an upper max sustained wind of around 155 mph based on the previous entries in HURDAT.

      Might have to have some new sort of physics to explain that. ← {I’m joking.}

      As it is, evidently the Saffir–Simpson scale is just as detested by some weather people as the VEI scale is for the volcano oriented community.

      • One of the storm chasers said his previous experience of being in a Cat 5 eyewall was that every so often you’d hear something that sounded like a jet engine low overhead. Then a few seconds later a house sized “fist” of wind and rain landed nearby. That’s when the gusts really go nuts.

        • Funny, I rode out a Cat-3 here and all I got was a Freightliner tractor unit using my driveway to turn around. That and an oak tree on my Bronco II. Took me a couple of days if cutting my way through the tree to get my tobacco.

    • Sadly now broadcasting a money-making “preacher” claiming this is a man made hurricane.

  28. 18z GFS finally joins the UKMET and Euro in having a few members landfall Florida. 18z HWRF also still landfalls Florida.

    I want to emphasise that the best people at NHC see this is almost certainly staying offshore and they know what they are talking about – BUT there remains a low possibility steering option of Florida landfall (or very close to), of which they are clearly aware, and East Florida remains in the track cone.

    Or that’s my best understanding anyway.

    • I hate it when I am correct.
      This is in regards of conversation between me, Albert and Lurking in the backchannel.

    • In the movie Deadpool, “Wade Wilson” asks the rhetorical question: “What situation is not improved by pizza?”

      Answer: Vodka Martini.

      The flavors do not mesh well at all.

      Meanwhile on the tropical superlative front…

      Wind speeds are down a bit. Still Cat 5. The f
      General consensus is that it is going through an Eyewall replacement cycle. An outer eyewall forms after the feeder bands connect and starve the inner eyewall of energy. It’s not real certain of the reason why, but it does indicate a refinement of the flow pattetns that feed the storm. The cycles are indicative of a healthy storm.

      • I wounder, sitting on the shallow Bahama Bank going this slow will it keep getting weaker?
        That is until it can get over the gulf stream.

        • Sitting still is beneficial for storms, meaning it limits their strength. The Gulf stream though can still supply new warm water. Over the next day or two, shear should reduce the severity of the storm, and this will happen at the same time as the turn north. But a category 3 is still pretty devastating, and one to stay well away from.

        • Nope, as long as it has warm yummy surface water it will be happy. If anything the shallow bank makes things worse since it amplifies the storm surge.

          • Water is only 4-10 meters in depth since it came ashore in the Bahamas. I am not sure that there is an eye wall replacement going on. I think the engine is struggling. Tops are warmer, winds are down. There is some deep warm water to the south of the island, not sure how well it can tap that. Still will be lots of problems as it goes up the coast.

          • Depth does not affect it, what is making it loose a bit of steam is that it is currently sitting still over the same spot, and that cools down the water.

  29. ZNS News just managed to speak to an official on Abaco Island. He said he’s at the very southern tip and conditions are still very bad. He said they had no contact with the main emergency command centre in the north of the island – last message was that they were evacuating the centre. Not exactly clear where they were evacuating to.

    They are now live on Facebook

    • Unexpectedly the capital Nassau and most of New Providence Island has also lost electricity due to extreme flooding – far more than they expected at that distance from storm.

      • When I vacationed there this summer I had a chance to speak to an electrical engineer that was working on their grid. He said it is not good, political issues make it hard to get things done.


    • The phrase “evacuating the emergency command centre” is not good. That means that people who know their shit knows that they are buggered if they stay, and that it is a low probability of surviving the evacuation but still believe it is the safer option.
      I hope that they survived.
      Also, if an emergency command center goes under, anyone around it is in terrible circumstances.

      • They have since got a brief message via sat phone – I think they had a secure bunker attached to the complex and presumably above the flooding to go to. First news seems to say that the main evacuation shelters survived intact but virtually everything else is gone in some places.

          • ZNS just had live video of a brand new bridge with water at the roadway level which they said was about 30 feet. Water is pumping up out of the drains around the tv station and downtown Freeport is now under water as well which they say has never happened before.

            The Emergency Operation Centre in Freeport has water in the lower levels but continues to operate.

          • This is Fishing Hole Bridge with ZNS estimate of the water level as an incredible almost 30 feet above sea level.

          • And the Freeport tv studio has just gone off air – as they were worried about, their generator was finally overwhelmed by the rising waters.

          • And the few people still sending video show the water is still rising…


            Hector Singson MD, FPCEM, RMT, MT(ASCPi)
            ‏ @Hectordvector
            12m12 minutes ago

            Still with generator power, signal, level of stress escalating,

            Hector Singson MD, FPCEM, RMT, MT(ASCPi)
            ‏ @Hectordvector
            2h2 hours ago

            Outside our Emergency Room…. staff will be the last to leave… patients evacuated. Lord, take care of my wife and son. Keep them safe while we are locked down here. Not losing hope.

            Hector Singson MD, FPCEM, RMT, MT(ASCPi)
            ‏ @Hectordvector
            2h2 hours ago

          • Finally a report of water levels dropping

            Hector Singson MD, FPCEM, RMT, MT(ASCPi)
            ‏ @Hectordvector

            Tide going down, no power in hospital, still water around the hospital. No shark sighting yet, ( I need to smile)All staff and patients in the ER. We are still safe.

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