Who doesn’t love a good mystery? The allure of the unknown captivates all, no matter one’s social, political, religious, or scientific standing. From dark matter to what could lie beyond death to the ending of the Simpsons, these almost incomprehensible ideas steal our thoughts. I would contend that we Volcanic fanatics have some of the best mysteries in academia. So many sciences intersect at pinpoint mysterious larger eruptions. No single field can handle the unknown eruptions of our past. The eruption of Samalas was the biggest mystery eruption of the last few decades for good reason, as it was the largest sulfate eruption in the last 2500 years, with major famines across the world. But now the mystery has been solved, and UE 1809 is the one getting all of the attention. As you probably already know, I find this event to be rather boring. The eruption had the misfortune of being placed in between the Laki and Tambora eruptions, and both of those had bigger impacts on society in 1809. It’s really not my cup of tea, and there are other eruptions that I believe should have way more attention. In this article I’ll shed some light on some eruptions that have caught my interest.
All throughout history, years, decades, or even centuries have been singled out for terrible living conditions. The global war and a deadly pandemic in the 1910s, a massive volcanic winter and plague of the sixth century, and more. The 17th century was a horrible century for all; some of the biggest wars, the biggest famines, and the deadliest plagues impacted the entire globe, and no one was safe. One of the decades in this grim century was special; the 1690s is singled out for massive famines over a large area in northern Europe. The years 1692-1698 were bad for the harvest; cold and wet summers in conjunction with terribly cold winters destroyed the harvests for many, and as such, Finland lost a third of its population, Estonia lost 20% of its population, and Scotland lost 5-15% of its population. Lesser but significant cooling took place in Western Europe and East Asia; 1695-1697 were especially bad in the coldest decade of the Little Ice Age. The famous George Mackenzie paints a grim picture in Scotland.
After subscribing to his tack, he immediately went north to appoint collectors in the several towns and shires and to regulate the brewers, but shortly after, there happened a great scarcity in the northern countries, and brewing was for the most part given up, so that it was not possible to make up the tack duty.
Your Petitioner, foreseeing the sad and calamitous condition and the apparent famine in these places, and finding that there was not the least possibility for him to make good his tack, made application first to the principal tacksmen and then to the Lords of the Treasury, who, after consideration of what he had represented, gave him a gift of execution as to one half of his tack duty.
Thereafter the sad and deplorable Condition of these Countries increasing, the Coun∣try Brewers were so far from continuing to Brew, that there was not Bear to be had to make Meal of to keep in their Lives, so notwithstanding of all the Trouble, Fatigue and Expense your Petitioner was brought to, it was not possible for him to make one half of his Tack-duty, and yet to save himself and his Cautioners so far as he was able, he has payed in what he has collected, and near one thousand pound sterling more of his own proper Stock, which goes very near to ruine him, but he yet lying under the Obligation of his Tack to pay 9000 lib, sterling, which he never received, he is necessitat humbly to Address the Honourable and High Court of Parliament in this matter.
For years, the main cause of this famine was thought to have been the Little Ice Age. The LIA peaked in the 17th century and caused other major famines within the 400 years it lasted. This assessment wasn’t unreasonable, but I believe that this entire event needs to be rethought and studied more. I believe that these famines had a volcanic factor and are possibly some of the deadliest volcanic-induced famines on record. We have evidence of a large eruption taking place sometime in 1694-1695, right before the coldest years of the decade. The eruption is extremely overlooked, so I can’t give any specifics on just how big it was, but it looks to have been a little more than half the size of Tambora based on the ice cores. In any case, this eruption wouldn’t have to be that large to cause a devastating volcanic winter, as the climate was already cold before the eruption even happened. Candidates have been put forth, with Hekla and Serua being the most discussed, but I doubt either of them was responsible. They erupted too early and were too small to cause the sulfate spike, even if we were to assume these eruptions were extremely rich in sulfur. These eruptions could’ve caused some minor cooling preceding the eruption but definitely not the famine.
Not a good time for farmers…
Almost nothing is known about UE 1695 except that it was a tropical eruption and is in the top 25 eruptions of the past 2500 years. This eruption is in my top 10 underrated eruptions of all time, but it doesn’t compare to my n. 1. What if I told you that the 13th century could’ve seen not 1 but 2 VEI 7s? You might be surprised, but this is actually a strong possibility. This eruption had the unfortunate luck of taking place a little less than 3 decades before the aforementioned eruption of Samalas and was massively overshadowed.
“Azuma Kagami” states that on June 9th (currently July 27th) there was a lightning strike in Kaneko-go, Musashi Province, and at the same time it was said that hail fell and that white snow fell in Makita-so, Mino Province. It was reported that frost had fallen across the country on July 16th, and it was described as almost like winter weather.'' On the evening of August 6, a flood occurred, washing away riverside residences and causing many drownings. Furthermore, on August 8, the area was hit by a typhoon, and theAzuma Kagami” records that “the leaves of the plants and trees withered, and it felt like winter was on the horizon. All the crops were lost.” Regarding the winter of the same year, ` “Meigetsuki” reports that it was a mild winter, with ears of wheat sprouting, cherry blossoms blooming, and crickets chirping.
Kagami would paint an even more horrid picture for Japan in the Kanki famine of the 1230s, the worst famine in the nation’s history. 1,000,000-2,000,000 people, or about a third of the entire country’s population, died. In 1230, Japan was smashed by frosts and freezes almost the entire year, ironically, barring winter. Floods and windstorms were commonplace, making agriculture almost impossible. In 1231, the weather would change from cold and wet to hot and dry. The people had resorted to eating the seeds, and it would take years to restore the economy as well as agriculture. Social order broke, and human trafficking was made legal. Parents sold themselves and their children into slavery. in desperation, and people fled to the cities and flung themselves into servitude. The cities were full of the dead and dying, making fertile conditions for disease. No soul would escape the scent of death, and even the shogun would despair at the horrible conditions. Russia would suffer a large famine at the same time, and England would experience a terrible famine in 1235 that may or may not have been related. Anomalous weather was noted across the globe at this time. These events were likely caused by an eruption taking place sometime in 1229 or 1230; a large tropical eruption produced a similar sulfate load to the Tambora eruption. Some studies have the eruption larger and some smaller, but it was definitely bigger than the 1695 eruption and the 1809 eruption.
Another potential mystery, VEI 7, for our records just proves that we don’t know much about our historical volcanic record. In fact, half of the largest eruptions in the past 2500 years came from unknown sources, including the largest eruption of them all, the 426 B.C. eruption. All of these eruptions are thought to be firmly within the VEI 6 range, with some likely reaching into VEI 7 territory. I am a very cynical person, but I have a hard time believing that scientists would miss so many recent major eruptions. Beyond the absolute basics, we have no idea where ME 536, 1230, and 1695 took place. Maybe our methods are just that ineffective, or maybe these eruptions weren’t all that big. It is possible that these sulfate spikes weren’t caused by VEI 6s but by VEI 5s. As you already know, not all volcanoes have the same gas budget; some eruptions will be sulfur-rich, and some will be sulfur-poor. It all depends on the geology of the volcano, and areas in the world bring forth some extreme cases. The most well-known is the 11,500 BC eruption of Laacher See; despite being just a little larger than the Pinatubo eruption, it produced at least 4x as much sulfate. Around 80-160 teragrams, to be more precise. Let’s not forget that Pinatubo was a sulfur-rich eruption in its own right! In my opinion, it would be disingenuous to assume that this is the only eruption of recent times with such a high sulfur budget. The 2011 Nabro eruption produced around 3-4.5 teragrams of SO₂ despite being an average VEI 4. In fact, all of the largest sulfur releases in the past 20 years were from VEI 4 eruptions; the eruptions of Sarychev Peak and Kastochi were extremely rich in sulfur. The Tonga eruption, despite being more than 100x larger than these eruptions, produced 10x less sulfur. It would be disingenuous with these facts and precedents to say that a VEI 5 can’t be the size of some mystery eruptions.
I’ve seen some incredulity when it comes to associating these famines with eruptions, and I can’t help but wonder why. Volcanism is one of the most important climate variables, being capable of overwhelming extreme amounts of greenhouse gases and freezing most of the earth. It doesn’t make any sense that these large eruptions played an insignificant role in these famines. In order to argue against my case, one would have to explain how these large explosive eruptions failed to produce meaningful climate effects, which is a tall order. These eruptions were big enough, were in the right location, and happened at the right time to either cause or significantly exacerbate these famines. I would say it would be harder to argue against my case since there is no evidence of any climate events that would negate the cooling from the eruption. Quite frankly, I honestly believe the fact that something as geologically insignificant as a VEI 6 caused or played a major role in apocalyptic famines is too scary of a fact for some to accept. If natural variability and ENSO could cause a devastating famine, then there is no reason VEI 6 can’t. After all, the geologically insignificant Pinatubo eruption produced a significant drop in global temperatures, despite a moderate El Niño happening around the same time.
As it stands, our community has made great strides in uncovering the unknown events of the last 2000 years. Samalas, Ilopango, Okmok, and Zavaritskii have been uncovered, with the unidentified eruptions of 536-540, !108-1110, and 1808/9, gaining the most attention The aforementioned eruptions and subsequent winters are fascinating but not uncommon. An eruption potentially exceeding the sulfur load of Samalas in 426 BC, the potentially empire-ending eruption of 626 AD, and the enigmatic !458 anomaly. Even more minor but still significant mysteries, so many that I won’t even bother to list them all. Even more elusive incidents lie deep in the bowels of the Holocene. It is pleasing to say that there is much work to be done!
Tallis, February 2026
Further reading on the 1695 weather in Scotland
Eruption history of volcanoes can indeed become an exciting mystery like the X Files!
If we look at the climatical effect of a great eruption centuries ago, we have to take into account multiple factors of climate. During the late 17th and 18th century the Maunder Minimum of the Sun happened which usually means a weaker Sun activity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
It’s possible that a combination of a strong volcanic eruption and an astronomical factor like the Maunder Minimum causes extraordinary conditions for climate and weather. Sometimes the combination of factors is stronger than the effect of a single one. Added to this weather is more complex and variable than climate. A tiny change of climate can cause huge regional weather disasters of all kinds. The 1230 event of Japan could perhaps have its origin in a unusual setting of the great weather systems (depressions, anticyclone). The question is: how much of this was caused by a volcanic eruption?
Tallis,
I am a couple articles behind because of travel for work but offers something to look forward to. This looks like the closest GPS station a little south and east of the complex according to the coordinates at the Global Volcanism Program.
https://geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/stations/COEC.sta
The station has been moving north and east, but in 2025 it seems the upward trend slowed a bit. Take your pick, Katla, Iwo Jima, or CCN…I’m rooting for you…
Thanks! COEC is not really the most reliable station to use but deformation has slowed or stopped across most of the complex except for some special areas. It’s really complicated but it all reminds of the lead up too the 2022 swarm
Awesome post, Tallis.
The 1229/1230 eruption has always stood out to me for the high sulfur content, and I also believe it could have been a VEI 7. My gut tells me it’s in the tropical Pacific somewhere–perhaps one of the lesser-studied Marianas arc volcanoes.
Thanks! Have no idea where it could have taken place but marianas is a good bet.
There’s a large earthquake swarm currently taking place around Eldey, it was southeast yesterday, it has now moved further towards the tip of the peninsula.
Great post Tallis – for me unravelling the mystery volcano behind these great climactic-effecting eruptions is one of the most fun and interesting sub-topics of volcanism. Just missing a scooby doo graphic “and I would’ve got away with it if it wasn’t for the meddling volcanologists”.
1695 was extremely cold in the northern hemisphere but there are lots of candidates. Here’s my own possible:
Adwa (Ethiopia – young lava flows/young but small caldera)
Theres been a notable uptick in swarms around svartsengi, similar to the months prior to the april 1st event. Models infer that we have now reached the highest volume since nov2023, sadly no new gps and model data since the 5th. I hope this ends in a real eruption this time unlike the april fools joke.
Has the eruption of Adwa been dated?
No it’s not dated, but it looks Holocene. There are historical accounts of moderately explosive eruptions in the early 19th and 20th centuries. Bit of a long shot perhaps but wouldn’t mind seeing it dated (along with a whole bunch of other Afar-adjacent calderas)
Concerning sulfur emissions, also extraordinary effusive eruptions of Laki’s order can have a significant climatic impact:
“Basaltic fissure eruptions release large volumes of SO2 into the atmosphere. Basaltic magmas have a high sulphur yield, which is typically two to four times higher than silicic magmas (Thordarson et al. 2003). As a result, SO2 is released during basaltic flood eruptions by a two-stage degassing process: from the magma as it rises through the conduit and erupts at the vent and from lava flows during and after their emplacement (Walker, 1989; Thordarson et al. 1996; Thordarson et al. 2003).” https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-017-1160-6
A Plinian eruption doesn’t reach high levels of atmosphere by the physical force of explosivity, but mainly by the hot-air balloon effect. It’s the same effect that let’s tropical Cumulonimbus clouds grow. If heat rises ash/tephra with its sulfur gasses up until the stratosphere, the same must work above a “sea of lava” like the Laki eruption or other lava floods.
Did effusive eruptions of Laki’s magnitude happen between 1000 and 2000 AD? Hawaii, the Afar Triangle and the subduction zone shield volcanoes along the Pacific Ring of Fire are potential candidates.
On-going intrusion on the Reykjanes Ridge.
Indeed, there’s some possibility it’s a small dike.
It is still continuing, at a depth of around 7 km.
What indicates that it is an intrusion?
Seismic swarms tend to have large magnitude earthquakes that trigger a sequence of smaller aftershocks. In this case, the magnitude increases gently at the start of the swarm and there are many small earthquakes, but few stronger earthquakes that would stand out, and this could support a small intrusion. The short migration of activity to the NE could also be consistent with a propagating dike, given that the migration has been away from the summit and in the direction of dikes in the area (SW-NE).
Very frequent earthquakes in Iceland at the moment!
Many of those are from the activity at Reykjanes Ridge. For the rest, for very weak earthquakes the locations may be somewhat in correct, which gives the scatter of points across Iceland. It is harder to get accurate positions when there is a lot of seismic noise, as is the case at the moment. They also seem to plot very weak earthquakes at the moment, and there will be a lot of those!
Comment from IMO:
400 earthquakes around Eldey since yesterday (RÚV, 9 Feb)
So they think the Reykjanes eruptions had stressed the plate boundary to the south, which is now adjusting. I was wondering about the reverse: whether this swarm would light the fuse on a new eruption on the Peninsula. Inflation is still taking place from the GPS data, albeit slowly.
This means that they don’t detect moving fluids. If magma is involved the amount is small. It works both ways: a shift in the plate boundary can create space for a bit of magma, and this in turn keeps the motion going. It is a small example of the Reykjanes activity before the start of the eruptions there. But this event is much smaller.
RVIT GPS station on the southwest end of Reykjanes Peninsula shows no deformation. Is there a monitoring of submarine deformation in the Eldey region?
Not sure insar can penetrate, we would likely see formation of a dike from a seismic standpoint though.
It’s possible that there is magma here as there has been deeper quake swarms prior to intrusions on the peninsula. Maybe not enough to erupt though, or perhaps it’s being directed elsewhere
Kilauea’s summit tiltmeters showing a drop. DI event?
GPS is still positive:
But there were some earthquakes at 6-7 km depth. Is this the depth of Halema’uma’u’s magma chamber?
Assuming HVO’s January 2024 graphic of one of the plumbing hypotheses, the top of the Halema’uma’u chamber sits around sea level, so quakes with a depth around -1 to +1 km or so are related to that chamber and maybe the caldera fault if they’re widespread. Perhaps superfluous, but a negative depth for earthquakes means above sea level, and positive depth is below sea level. Quakes 2-6 km deep are then likely to be related to the south caldera (or “main”) chamber, below that would be the connector to the hotspot. The quakes you mentioned also clustered around the position of the main chamber and thereafter the tilt dropped on all meters. Makes me wonder what the cause could be.
Likely so, yes
El Chichon is stirring. UK newspapers are predicting the end of the world
Tenerife has had some earthquake swarms recently. Maybe it’s the next volcano of the Canaries that’s going to erupt …
https://spanishnewstoday.com/nearly-90-tremors-recorded-beneath-mount-teide-in-three-days-unusual-seismic-signal-detected_1000260294-a.html??region=7
Both models now infer the highest volume ever in svartsengi since nov2023, though I dont know how mogi would result in such an uptick if deformation appears pretty flat rn…likely error or a knowledge gap on my side. Ive seen papers modeling a svarts magma domain size of up to 15km³. If we apply silly rule of thumb numbers like 20/20, we come to max. 0.6km³ of eruptable magma rn. Iirc, previous cycles had max. individual eruption sizes of up to 0.5km³ (assuming those were indeed single events)…What would be needed to trigger such flows, or could those in theory just occur with the next run?
Is Svartsengi shifting from episodical eruptions towards single eruptions? Maybe we’ll get a period like Grimsvötn 1996-2011 with eruptions every few years. I remember how Carl and Albert five years ago discussed the date of the next eruption of Grimsvötn (however someone gave Grimsvötn a sleeping pill …). Can we apply the model of “cumulative seismic moment” that was used for Grimsvötn, on Svartsengi?
https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-grimsvotn-eruption-of-5-may-2021/
GPS are still positive, more than any station of the EVZ volcanoes:
While SENG (near Blue Lagoon) moves north, GRIV (Grindavik) moves south. Inflation is supposedly somewhere between the stations.
I’d question the relevance of including the Mogi model data. Whatever form of intrusion we’re dealing with here, it’s likely inappropriate to model it as a sphere! An Okada dislocation would likely be a better model (which is what I presume they’re using for the sill/dike model).
Don’t send us any more, we’re full up.
Magma still collecting under Svartsengi – “You could say the tank is full” (RÚV, 10 Feb)
He then goes on to talk a bit about the Eldey tremor swarm.
But the bottom line is that this series of eruption will not last forever and we are approaching the end – or have reached that already. Grindavik will not fail!
“One episode of eruptive activity (‘Fires’) has occurred in Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic systems in historical times, 1210-1240 CE. During these Fires, at least six discrete eruptions occurred at 2 to 12 year intervals.”
https://icelandicvolcanos.is/#
The Medieval Fires lasted for 30 years. If this is repeated now, we’ll get eruptions until 2053 or 2050 (counted with Fagradalsfjall). Maybe the 30 years are a typical timeframe, until the system is exhausted for this time. 1210-1240 included the Reykjanes system on the west end of the Reykjanes Peninsula. It’s possible that it participates again in the Fires.
Anyone mention the recent swarm of earthquakes in the Dead Zone, west of Vatnajokull? Some were very deep and reached as far as the border between Katla and Eyafjallajokull.
These are likely ghosts of the new earthquake detection system. The new system seems to detect a lot more tiny quakes with very low position accuracy. Only trust quakes that have been manually checked (99% in the list and a black outline around the dot in the map).
Here’s the post IMO made about the new system (SeisComP):
https://vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/seiscomp-verdur-nytt-adalkerfi-vedurstofu-islands-fyrir-jardskjalftavoktun
They probably need some time to get adjusted to the quirks of the new system.
At https://youtu.be/_P6fUsrvp28 “IS GERMANY FACING A VOLCANIC ERUPTION? Earthquakes are becoming more frequent!” about the Laacher see Volcano and its magmatic system in the Volcanic Eifel in Germany.
Lol as if
It’s likely going to last for >100,000 years until something happens there again. The earthquakes are just a sign of deep slow filling of the magma chamber.
Piton De La Fournaise is erupting again, and also it seems that Alaid started an eruption yesterday with there being decent thermal signatures from it and its summit region
Saw that Lascar is erupting a little.
Lascar formed a small lava dome in its crater during its last brief eruptive period in 2022-2023, so it wouldn’t be surprising if construction resumed. The large explosive eruption of 1993 was preceded in the years leading up to it by a lava dome in the crater, so we need to pay attention to Lascar, perhaps in the medium term.
… and unrest on Teide: https://www.heraldo.es/noticias/nacional/2026/02/13/las-senales-del-teide-dicen-a-gritos-que-tenerife-esta-volcanologicamente-activa-1893859.html?fbclid=IwY2xjawP8JrJleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZBAyMjIwMzkxNzg4MjAwODkyAAEeVhD9y9DVjkR72spUzoXWpb0T6EAe3CzqfvVAm54n88aP3A4ibSAw7rUKOcw_aem_irN8Kmsbbb7uoEakuG4Rxg
Firefox translation: “The most recent indication is a seismic signal of unusual low intensity due to its duration, of about 90 minutes, which adds to the swarms detected since 2016, to the increase in gas emissions in the crater of Teide, and to a deformation of the terrain of two centimeters in the last three years.
“Tenerife is and all the anomalous signs we’ve seen over the last ten years are telling us screaming. That is why you have to be aware and keep in mind that this can change from one day to the next: start having a precursor signal of an eruption at any given time, “says Itahiza Domínguez. … historically, eruptions on the island of Teide have been preceded by a succession of earthquakes felt by the population. “The question is how long before. It can be weeks or months”
The piton eruption is a little odd in terms of the orientation of the fissures no?
It had perpendicular fissures opening up at the same time, initially it looks like a circumferencial fissure a la Wolf and then there’s vertical ones (like the previous eruption) further away from the main edifice
The fissures opened very high on the summit. Is it a typical summit eruption that precedes later flank eruptions? There must be a relatively high pressure if the eruption happens on high altitude.
North vent has overflowed @ 13:04 local time.
*disregard the comment under “Zachary Trent”.
Both vents are spattering now. The northern crater has a lower crater rim. This is an advantage in the competition of the vents for the next outflow of lava. But the southern vents appears to have more significant lava blobs/fountains now inside the crater.
Last days I also had the impression that spots below the southern rim had more fumarole activity than before. Maybe the caldera ring fault is increasing activity in this location.
I think this could be a big one. Looking at other episodes before it, I think that if the UWD and SMC go above previous high levels of the previous episode, high fountains happen (which both are getting close to). Also, the inflation-deflation cycles (or whatever else they are) has happened and, again, that has also led to high fountains. I do think Ep. 42 is big, but again volcanoes are unpredictable so who knows…
Now SDH is 4 microrads above E41. There was recently also a number of shallow earthquakes along a line from the southern caldera over SDH towards upper SWRZ. Maybe they indicate a future expansion of the episodes to the southern caldera.
Pretty strong overflow starting at around 12:30pm (Sunday) Getting a lot of buffering artifacts and dropouts on the streams. It could just be my favela internet, but I am not seeing it anywhere else.
Also it looks like the wider area around the vents has moved a bit somewhat recently.
Yeah, the North Vents started overflowing big time at 12:13 local time, stopped at 12:21, around the same time the South Vent began overflowing and continued since. Typical behavior for pre-episode overflows…
North vent is really going now too.
Where the crap is the Io probe? maybe Elon coud one day ( perhaps ) get intrested in the Jupiter system?
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26522-nasas-juno-sees-glowing-lava-on-io/
A glowing river of lava flows from a fault in one of Io s mountains ( thermal view )
Looks like Ep. 42 is starting!
Starting to really take off now.
Cameras are being zoomed out = fountains are getting higher bit by bit…
Tiltmeter is nosediving. Off she goes.
South vent just overtook the north vent in size.
I think there’s a new vent here. It’s dwarfed by the other fountains, but could this be important for the future of the episodes?
I watched and yes, I believe you are probably right, new vent 15:08:01 pm local Hawaii time for example.
Summary, although E42 hasn’t ended yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gFzOZrMJoNE&t=18s
The episode lasts longer than E41 with at least 9 hours and still running …
Annd it has ended at 23:38 hours local time. Oddly enough, the south vent ended first, which is a bit of an oddity…
A few episodes ago, there was an overflight video taken a couple of days before the overflows started. In that video you got a glimpse down the north vent. It seemed to me that there was a churning lava lake some tens of meters below the crater rim and it extended into a cavern reaching towards the other vent.
Found the video:
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DR0EZHZEg2z/
I wonder if erosion eventually will cause the ceiling to cave in and maybe form a more permanent lava lake? In the future maybe even merge the vents.
My VC avatar have chnaged into a round seasponge like thing but I prefer this one! before I looked like a compressed hockey puck!
piton created a small pyroclastic flow https://www.ipgp.fr/volcanoweb/reunion/Bulletins-Communiques/2026/Communiques/OVPF_20260216_11h10_communique.pdf
This is the video (please switch off the music or ignore it!): https://www.youtube.com/shorts/h0Hb-T0zws0
While no eruption seems to be happening in the short term, it sure does seem that Tenerife is starting to give us signs that it is slowly gearing up. Since 2016, there seem to have been more swarms happening there.This series is interesting since this swarm of low-frequency events has been lasting longer than others in the past.
https://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/vlc-senales-sismicas/-/senales-sismicas/spectroDinamico?fecha=2026-02-16&tipoFO=2&tipoSP=2&estacion=TE01&nombreFichero=TE01_2026-02-16&hora=20-21
We don’t know too much about how volcanoes such as Teide build up to an eruption. Is it slowly accumulating magma until something breaks, or does each random intrusion have a chance to erupt, as, e.g. in Redoubt? Does 10 years of swarms increase the chance, and if som, how long does it take? It will be interesting to see!
A very good scientific paper on the Hunga Tonga VEI 6 explosion Jan 15, 2022 – see https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027324000696
OOh, I would like to put the graphic up here but I do not have permission and have no idea how to get it.
BUT I note two things:
1) Seawater ingress is small and not responsible for the eruption.
2) The water/gases were in the rising magma and supercritically expanded when the plug failed.
Quite similar to the mechanism I suggested?
While we enjoyed the repeated shows Kilauea was providing and are keeping our fingers crossed for another eruption at Svartsengi, Home Reef volcano has been building its above water surface area. I guess the lack of webcams and other monitoring gear resulted in only occasional mentions here…
NASA is giving us a nice overview of the recent growth of Home Reef:
A short article that goes with the pictures can be found here:
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/home-reef-adds-on/
I think it is safe to call this Home Reef (Island) now.
and Mayon with Hawaiian-Pelean eruption style (Lava and Pyroclastic Flows) that has lasted for 43 days now:
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scitech/science/976921/watch-time-lapse-footage-of-lava-effusion-at-mayon-volcano-summit/story/
Mayon seems to have a very steep slope, surely it will be prone to an edifice collapse? Won’t that be Very Bad for local populations?
Yes
Update from the IMO on Svartsengi inflation – https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/earthquake-in-brennisteinsfjoll-faster-subsidence-in-krysuvik-and-continued-magma-accumulation-at-svartsengi
I’m looking at the interferogram from the Feb 4 update. It looks like there’s deflation inside the area outlined by GPS stations GONH, KEIC, ODDF, MOHA, KRIV and STAN. Out of these stations, only MOHA and KRIV are actually inside the area of deflation. Both those stations showed subsidence before October (which is included in the interferogram timeframe), but since October they have not shown any vertical deformation. It would have been interesting to have a GPS station in the middle of that area, somewhere along Núpshlíðarháls.
There are several possible explanations for the deflation. The most likely cause is of course that the deflation comes from the deeper magma source that’s feeding Svartsengi, but it could also be from thinning of the crust because of the plates spreading. One could speculate that such thinning might be an indicator of a weakness that might serve as a future eruption site.
Also:
I’m blue
Da ba dee da ba di
In the east (EVZ, NVZ) the stations GIGO and THOC show inflation in February. GIGO (west of Holohraun) has had permanent positive deformation since May with changing degree. THOC (between Holohraun and Askja) had deflation from October to December and has returned to a positive tendency in February.
Are these stations rather indicators for Askja or for Bardarbunga?
Concerning Svartsengi we still have a positive trend. If we assume a curve like the Square Root function with a later zero growth, we can expect around three more years of inflation and – maybe – eruptions:
A nothing-to-report report from RÚV today:
Magma masses beneath Svartsengi (RÚV, 18 Feb)
Doesn’t say anything that we don’t already know. But I take the story to be a sign that Icelanders are very interested in the situation and are wanting regular updates from state TV.
I think it’s impossible to determine the moment of the next eruption, unless the borehole method says that “Now is the day”.
On 10th December 2025 the minimum value of mass accumulation for an episode was reached with 17 million m³. Since that date, we have an elevated probability for an eruption. Up until now Svartsengi has accumulated 22 million m³. During the whole eruption series, the maximum value was 23 million m³ before the episode in March 2025.
Breaking up has become less hard
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GC012556
How reliable are those 1500 deg C reports of mantle lithosphere boundary conditions?
Seems a well measured temperature. Their point though is tat it is lower than previously estimated
Torfajökull had recently more quakes towards Hekla-Vatnafjöll system. The last time Hekla induced an eruption of Torfajökull was 4000 years ago. It happened four times during Holocene. 1/3 of Torfajäkull’s Holocene eruptions were caused by the fissure swarm of Hekla-Vatnajökull.
After Holohraun Bardarbunga is likely too much exhausted to interfere in Torfajökull again soon. Is Hekla more able to do it? For an eruption like this a dyke is needed to enter into Torfjaökull. The Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes assumes that a Hekla-Vatnafjöll induced eruption of Torfajökull would ignore the magma chamber and erupt gentle basaltic magmas.
Imo also pointed out that there was constant uplift in the southern part of the caldera in 2025. Itll be interesting once the charts update again.
Who knows about the capabilities of hekla…we know for sure that it has recovered from the 2000 eruption, that rn theres inflow of around 400 liters/s, and that whatever mechanic which led to decade interval eruptions has most likely resolved itself.
We haven’t had a Hekla eruption on the fissure swarm since 1913. These eruptions are usually effusive, unlike the classic explosive eruptions of Hekla’s central volcano. It must be one of these unusual effusive eruptions of the fissure swarm that can in some cases interact with Torfajökull.
Currently some swarms going on at the tip of the peninsula and at Eyjafjallajökull. Can’t help but feel that the next Icelandic eruption is around the corner. By the end of the month? At least before April.
You can bookmark this for when I’m catastrophically wrong.
Katla actually hasnt rly calmed down since the swarm in november. This month has already seen around 100 eqs, quite a large portion at depth. Admittedly, the new system is better in picking up smaller quakes, but even if u filter for pos mags only the trend stays. We are still far behind 2016/17 but if this continues it might get interesting.
Yes it’s been very noisy – lots of quakes on the northwest rim of the Katla caldera.
I think we don’t fully comprehend the linkage between Katla – Eyjafjallajökull and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another eruption in the saddle (Fimmvorduhals/Godabunga).
1784 quakes at Katla so far this year according to Skjalftalisa.
The Teide swarm continue and actualy dont stop…. over 2-3 days….
https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/Experts-say-Teide-s-latest-seismic-swarms-represent-a-New-Phase-in-volcanic-activity-in-Tenerife
New post is up. It is Miller Time!
https://www.volcanocafe.org/volcanoes-and-rain/
Norhern Latitude volcanoes do not have to erupt as high to reach the Junge layer.