Grindavik. Source: sss.is
The Southern Peninsula (Suðurnes) is the western part of the Reykjanes Peninsula; the border is drawn to exclude Reykjavik and its suburbs. Suðurnes is the first point of call for most visitors to Iceland. The main international airport, Keflavik, is located here: the road to Reykjavik runs along the entire northern coast of Suðurnes. It is a windy, rugged, barren place. From the airport (if it is not raining), you see fields of ancient lava and a few distant cones left by past eruptions, the most obvious being Keilir. There are few towns of any significance. Most people live along the northern side. The area around Keflavik accounts for some 20,000 people. Vogur, on the north coast, has some 1500 people. The only major settlement on the southern coast is Grindavik, with a population of 3000.
Suðurnes
There is a reason for this. The Reykjanes rift zone runs in-land along the southern coast, dividing the European and North American plates. It is a zone of regular volcanism, which has been especially active in the past 5 years. The north coast is much further from the rift and is much less affected by the lava flows. (Keflavik is entirely out of lava range.) It is therefore older and more eroded. The coast gives easy access to the sea, and this sea is a bay, partly protected from the Atlantic waves. For a culture long based on fishing, this is important. The south coast is exposed to the wild Atlantic and has few bays which give a protected harbour. Grindavik is just about the only one. The volcanism has created a hillier, rougher landscape near the coast. Grindavik’s harbour is created by a promontory, from a lava flow dating to only 2500 years ago. But what volcanoes give, they can also take away. To use a Viking analogy, Danegeld can buy a few years of volcanic peace, but not forever. Eruptions don’t repeat but do return, and building behind a lava flow means a risk of being in the path of the next one.
Map of Iceland adapted by Tom Wallace for Volcanocafe
Faults and rifts
As a reminder, Iceland is a deviation of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. From the south, the MAR bends a bit eastward, with a larger bend when reaching the Reykjanes Peninsula. In the central part of Iceland, the rift separates into several distinct branches, which towards the north bend back to the west, eventually to become again an extension of the MAR. The Reykjanes Peninsula is a bit unusual, in the sense that the rift here has both a spreading and a transform component. It is the only place on-land in Iceland where this happens.
EÁ = Eyjafjörður Deep. TFZ = Tjörnes Fracture Zone. SISZ = South Iceland Seismic Zone. A = Arnarvatn fault zone. NVZ, EVZ, WVZ = Northern, Eastern and Western Volcanic Zones. H = Hofsjökull volcanic system. SH = South Iceland flank zone. GK = Grímsvötn–Kverkfjöll volcanic systems. RR = Reykjanes Ridge. ÖS = Öræfajökull–Snæfell flank zone. RPTZ = Reykjanes Peninsula trans-tensional zone. Source: Geology and structure of the Reykjanes volcanic system, Iceland: Kristján Sæmundsson et al., 2018, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.
Volcanic systems
But Iceland is more than a collection of faults. Dotted along the various faults are volcanoes, some large, some small, some with, some without calderas and each with different frequency of eruptions. Some produce enormous lava flows, others produce explosions and some do both. In Iceland, individual volcanoes are typically 20-30 km apart. But what counts as a separate volcano?
Because one volcano may erupt from different locations, they are called volcanic systems. To be classed as such, the system should have some (or all) of a number of aspects: a central volcano (or a centre of production), a distinct chemical composition, a fissure swarm, a caldera and a geothermal system. Torfajokull, for instance has four of these. It only lacks a fissure swarm – although the caldera is disected by different swarms, those belong to other volcanoes.
At Suðurnes, there are no central volcanoes or calderas, but there are plenty of fissure swarms and geothermal systems, and a range of different chemistries. Four volcanic systems have been identified: Reykjanes, Svartsengi, Krysuvik and (just across the Suðurnes border) Brennisteinsfjöll. Further east lies Hengill, which does have a central system. Since 2021, Fagradalsfjall can be considered as a further separate system or as part of Svartsengi.
Taken together, these are substantial systems! They are responsible for 5% of Iceland’s lava output, an impressive amount given the absence of actual volcanoes. But no eruptions had been recorded here on-land for many centuries. This region seems to erupt episodically, with a series of events across the entire peninsula over a few centuries (involving all systems apart from Hengill), followed by some 8 centuries of quiescence. The last such active episode was between 950 and 1250. And the quiet phase that followed has just come to an end.
Source: Seamundsen 2015
Fagradalsfjall
Looking back through VC’s archives, the earliest mention of Fagradalsfjall (where the 2021 eruption occurred) was in July 2017, when a tectonic earthquake was followed by a magma intrusion: https://www.volcanocafe.org/unrest-at-fagradalsfjall/ It seemed an unlikely place for an eruption. Fagradalsfjall was not one of the recognized volcanic centres and had not erupted for the past several periods. And indeed, when things became serious in January 2020, it was not here but to the west at Thorbjorn, in the Svartsengi system – which was a recognized system. It started with another seismic swarm on 21 January 2020, followed by a sill intrusion. Two more such episodes ocurred at this location in 2020. The Reykjanes and Krysuvik systems also showed uplift at this time, and Fagradalsfjall showed earthquake activity but no inflation. Then, on 20 October, after a period of inflation a M5.6 earthquake ocurred west of Krysuvik. And magma was on the move.
In this region, the eruptions do not occur on the rift itself. The rift mainly does transform movement which does not generate easy openings for magma – a lazy substance, which, like trickle, always goes for the easiest path. Instead the extension (‘rifting’) is done on a series of faults that run north-south within a few kilometer of the rift zone, and turn NE-SW further away. It became a race between these faults, to see which one would give way first: during 2020, activity alternated between different systems on Suðurnes. There has been a question whether on the peninsula each system triggers the next one, or that the trigger is from deeper magma. Events since 2020 suggest it is the latter: magma is pushing up everywhere, and over several centuries one fault after another fails. Once one fault is filled with magma (solidifying over time, after an eruption), the next one comes under assault.
It was only in February 2021 that Fagradalsfjall became the full focus of activity, with swarming that included 8 magnitude-5 earthquakes. But why here? It turned out, during the summer of 2020 an old fault here had failed. This fault had already shown itself during the 2017 swarm, as a line of increased shear. Analysis of INSAR data over 2020 showed movement of around 1 cm across this fault. It appears to be an ancient fault, as it runs on a somewhat different angle to others in the region. This fault was reactivated by the seismic activity. While other faults failed to fail, this one provided an opening for the magma. When the eruption started in March 2021, it was near this line and later in the year, when the eruption became focussed on a single vent, that vent was exactly on this fault line. Never trust a fault.
Source: Ducrocq et al. 2023 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-023-01699-0. Green is the 2020 fault, red the 2021 vents and black the eventual single vent
And so a dike formed along the fault and an eruption started in March – the most touristic eruption ever in Iceland, being close to the capital, close to the airport, easily reachable yet remote, with coffee available at the main parking area and some nice bars in Grindavik, while the lava catchment area was large enough to contain the flow with little damage. You may remember Iceland’s first lava management experiments: an earth wall which stopped lava from flowing out on the lowlands, and finally police putting up yellow tape at the exit towards the coast with signs ‘Lava – stop’ which immediately caused the flow to cease. Three more dike formations and two more eruptions followed, but after October 2023 activity ceased at Fagradalsfjall. The fault was exhausted.
Sundhnúkur
Instead, the magma went back to its first plan of escape: Svartsengi. And where Fagradalsfjall became a touristic highlight, this location was more serious. The geothermal plant, the hot lakes and the town of Grindavik were now in danger. Here at VC, commenters expressed serious doubt as to whether Grindavik could survive. But survive it did, thanks to a combination of Iceland’s experience with preventative lava management and a considerable amount of luck. The crisis came very suddenly, on 20 November 2023. It was a close call.
Source: Ducrocq et al. 2023 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-023-01699-0. The green lines show faults that activated during March 2021
As at Fagradalsfjall, the Grindavik crisis had precursors. The INSAR mapping over 2020 and 2021 found movement on more than 1200 (mainly short) faults on Suðurnes, of which more than 1000 had not been known before. Around 10 of those unknowns ran through Grindavik itself. These faults had shown movement over the two years, but had not generated earthquakes: the movement was aseismic. The cause of the movement was the growing sill to the north: around the edges of the sill, the ground stretches and this stretching reactivated the old unknown and unnoticed faults. Old faults can lie hidden in the landscape, but in this case they were just covered up and made invisible by buildings and roads.
An eruption in the Grindavik area was both not suprising and not expected. The Sundhnúkur crater row, which lies closest to Grindavik, had not erupted in the most recent cycle. The lava fields which surround it are dated to 2300 years ago, placing in two episodes ago. The Svartsengi system did erupt in the most recent episode but not in this location. Thorbjorn itself is even older: it dates to the ice age. The hill is dissected by an undated graben which lies along the direction of the crater row. It indicates that considerable rifting happened at one time, but this rifting did not cause a local eruption. There is an older series of craters just to the east, dated to 8000 years ago. The region is a persistent zone weakness, albeit one that does not erupt every cycle.
Diking crisis
After several phases of inflation under Svartsengi, activity resumed in late October 2023. Earthquakes began on 25 October and inflation was seen two days later. The new sill was located at a depth of 7 km, and grew by 9 million m3 over the next two weeks. This was an amount similar to that of the previous inflation periods. But this was the drop that overflowed the bucket. At 7am (UTC) on 10 Nov, the magma began to break out of the sill, moving 3.5 km northward along the Sundhnúkur crater row. The amounts were still small, and no inflation was seen at the surface. At 15:23 there was an M4 earthquake and suddenly the magma was moving southward, forming a dike underneath the crater row.
Now things moved fast. Earthquakes came fast and strong, showing where the tip of the dike had reached. But 6pm, it passed Hagafell with an M5.2 event. Thirty minutes later the dike reached Grindavik and an hour later, it had moved underneath the sea. Rapid deflation commenced by 4:30pm. Deflation and extension both reached a massive one meter by 8pm. After that, it slowed down but parts of Grindavik would sink by 1.3 meter. This activated faults all over town. Iceland knows how to handle emergencies, and the town had been evacuated on time.
Grindavik is now the proud owner of the golf course where it is easiest to make a hole-in-one. Photographer unknown, borrowed under fair non-profit eductional purpose.
Oops
The diking had been extreme. At 2 to 4 km depth, the dike was 8 meters wide. The volume of the dike was 130 million m3. At its peak, the inflow into the dike was 7400 m3/s! This is the highest rate every recorded, with the ground moving sideways by 25cm per hour. It is 100 times larger than at the Fagradalsfjall dike, and 30 times higher than at Bardarbunga in 2014. Krafla came closest, at 2000-3000 m3/s during the early phase. But where was all this magma coming from? The dike volume was three times more than the sills that had formed over the previous years. The magma was tapping into reservoirs ( a ‘magma domain’) below the recent sills.
Source: Sigmundsson et al., Science, 2024, Vol 383, pp. 1228-1235
DOI: 10.1126/science.adn28
And why did it move so fast? The area of the dike must have been under very low stress: the region was ready for a bit (more than a bit) of extension. It was primed, perhaps after 2300 years of preparation.
Survival
The big question is, though, how Grindavik survived the events of 10 November. Why did such a massive, instant magma flow not cause an eruption? Possibly, the reason lies in the deeper reservoirs. The magma there is buoyant, with slightly lower density than the surrounding crust. But the buoyancy was not quite sufficient. It reached neutral buoyancy (equal density between lava and rock) at 3 km depth. The push to the surface wasn’t sufficient. There was not enough gas pressure to push. But perhaps the main reason was the lack of stress: there was no stress on the dike which would have helped to push it up.
And so it ended. Grindavik survived. Roads, buildings and even the golf course were badly damaged, but not destroyed. The harbour is deeper than it used to be which perhaps will become useful. The golf course may need some reshaping.
But this was not the end, of course. Inflation resumed, and on 18 December, the feared eruption did happen. Another one followed in January, and on 16 January 2024, lava entered the town. But the eruptions were now focussing much further north on the fissure swarm: Grindavik was at the end of events, not the centre. Three houses were lost, but the town survived, perhaps mainly thanks to the earthen berms that had been built.
Iceland’s government offered to buy the houses in Grindavik, so people could move if wanted. And if conditions improved, they could also buy back the houses. It was an eminently sensible scheme. But so far, only those three houses have burned, although other houses may have earthquake and subsidence damage.
It is not clear whether the Sundhnúkur eruptions will continue. Magma inflow has slowed and the rift space created by the extension has been filled – if only in part. The major part of the eruption seems to be over, but smaller events may still occur. But any action will be far from the coast and Grindavik is unlikely to be endangered again.
The next Reykjanes eruption may even move on entirely. Before Fagradalsfjall, all volcanic systems on Suðurnes showed signs of inflation. Krysuvik seems to be calm at the moment, but the Reykjanes system still shows seismic swarms, a little off-shore. Following the idea that activity at the Reykjanes Peninsula tends to migrate westward, perhaps we should look here for the next phase – whether this year, this decade, or later.
Ever since 2020, commenters at VC have been concerned about Grindavik. Events came close, but this is the town that would not die. Iceland threw its magma and lava against it, but resilience, berms and a fair amount of luck came to the rescue. Today, Grindavik lives. Long may it continue.
Albert, May 2026
References
Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes.
Freysteinn Sigmundsson et al, 2024 Science, 383, 1228–1235. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn2838
Halldór Geirsson: “Meter-Scale Deformation on the Reykjanes Peninsula 2020-2024: a Volcano – Tectonic Rifting Episode”. https://www.nordicgeodeticcommission.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024_03_12_HG_Reykjanes_s.pdf
Looking back in time gives a clearer and lucid perspective of the events. Long live Grindavik! Thanks for the elucidatibg post, Albert!
It is easy to forget how one engrossed we were on that day! It seemed incomprehensible that no eruption followed
Thanks for your analysis and repetition of the onset of the 3rd Reykjanes Fires since Julius Caesar’s rule!
I’d assume that Grindavik is not safe yet. Although the eruptions spared Grindavik until now, the continuously positive inflation makes the next event unpredictable. The map with Svartsengi’s old lavas shows that lava flows covered all of Grindavik. So we can’t exlude that later eruptions will do a lava flood there after some years of calm. The slow inflation increases the risk for a sudden eruption.
During the Medieval period it looks as if the early fires were rather irregular, while later fires had each a cycle of 30 years on each system. So f.e. Krysuvik 1150-1188 and Reykjanes/Svartsengi 1210-1240. The Afstapahraun eruption of Krysuvik around 900 was an example for an “irregular”, more random eruption in the early stage. It’s possible that the Fagradalsfjall eruption (in sum all three episodes) 2021-2023 was a similar opening eruption like Afstapahraun 900. The actual Krysuvik Fires may happen 200-300 years after Fagradalsfjall.
Thanks for the good post. Seems like there will be more Iceland showing here soon, we have the proverbial cushion pushing from below for a few days/weeks now! Or is this the new monitoring system? Notable increase in Bardy, seems like a small intrusion going on there? It’s not only the plug, it’s deep activity. Same at Langjökull and even Herdubreid is joining once again. The latter one feels like it’s past the buoyancy threshold for a while now..
I think much of it can be attributed to the new monitoring system. If you filter out quakes below M0 and only show verified quakes, it looks more like business as usual. That said, there’s a lot of interesting activity going on in many places.
Langjökull is very interesting. The whole area from Langjökull to the west seems to become more active. Is it because of better instrumentation, or is the whole area waking up, or a combination of both? I think Herdubreid is mostly tectonic.
Bardarbunga is filling up below the plug, somewhere around 10km depth. I guess technically you could say that magma is intruding into the crust, since the chamber is likely a complex of stacked sills, but it remains confined within that storage. As long as the plug holds back, the inflation will affect the surrounding area. Look at how the KISA GPS moves to the NW, then makes a jump back every time there’s an M5+. The upward motion of the plug during one of the larger quakes concentrates the uplift back to the caldera and the surrounding area can then relax a bit. The increased stress from the inflation right before an M5 causes the whole area to light up with quakes, not only along the ring fault. That’s basically what we’re seeing right now.
During the Medieval Reykjanes Fires the West of Iceland (WVZ and SVB) was active above average. Langjökull is WVZ and Ljosufjöll is SVB, both did eruptions. Is there a causal relation between Reykjanes, WVZ and SVB or is it random?
It is fitting that the Icelandic Met Office published a new magma accumulation graph earlier today:
“The figure shows periods of magma accumulation along the Sundhnúksgígar crater row since October 2023. From March 2024 until the eruption in July 2025, the magma accumulation periods had been getting longer. A total of 280 days have now passed since the end of the eruption on 5 August 2025.”
Sill is even more impressive.
Grindavik has, for the time being, dodged a bullet for sure. Emergency management is to thank for a lot of the damage and casualty prevention. For everyone’s sake, I hope any future events are even more “friendly”.
In other news, have you seen this volcano in the Central Bismarck Sea that’s erupting? It’s apparently 1300 meters below water, but belching an ash cloud 4000 meters into the sky. I’m too new to the scene to know if that’s normal for a volcano that deep, but it seems mighty impressive.
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/centralbismarcksea/news/302207/vaac-advisory-2026-5.html
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/centralbismarcksea.html
(p.s.: I’m working on a piece discussing the historicity of the June 1026 Manju Tsunami, if this site wants it!)
Ash from 1300 meters below sea level is not likely to (or possible). From the maps, it seems this volcano is located on a ridge that runs through the Bismarck Sea and which reaches near the surface in places (there are a few atolls). It may not be the same one, or the depth was state wrongly. I would expect it to be no more than 100 meters below sea level
By the way, we would be happy to have a post on an ancient tsunami !
MBL.is reports that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake struck Mosfellsheiði at around 1:30 a.m. and was followed by several aftershocks, according to Jóhanna Malenar Skúladóttir, a natural hazards specialist at the Icelandic Meteorological Service.
This is the largest earthquake recorded in the region since April 2021 (coincidence?).
After reading Albert’s post this earthquake sounds particurally interesting!
Quakes of this magnitude are relatively common in the area. It’s also quite close to the Nesjavellir geothermal power plant. If you activate the “Jarðhitaborholur (gufa og niðurdæling)” map layer in Skjálftalísa, it seems like there’s an injection well just to the south of the quake, so it might be related to the human activities in the area.
At the time, I postulated that Grindavik had an expiry date and would not last much longer. I’d like to apologise for those remarks that in hindsight we’re quite alarmist and cynical.
Still going to stick with the idea that the next eruption will be the largest yet, but at this stage it’s more likely to affect the main ring road to the north than anywhere else.
Considering grindavik had two dikes run through it, fissures opening up just a few hundred meters from houses etc, Id say those remarks were quite reasonable and not alarmist. Even back when geologyhub got shitstormed i just couldnt understand the drama, perhaps all the fake/AI content on yt has made volcanology fans sensitive.
Don’t think we can predict where the next eruption will be. Seismic activity in the area is too low. I guess the big question is will there be new fissure (which may kind enough to be preceded by a swarm) or more activity on the current ones (which may not give much warning).
Very nice article! If you follow the link below, you come to a map of Iceland with many interesting layers. Select from the menu: JÖRD->Hreyfingar Jarðskorpunnar. There you find four map layers based on InSAR measurements. Láréttar is horizontal (near East-West), Lódréttar is vertical. Select láréttar 2015-2018. Here you can clearly see the effect of the quake that was mentioned in the article. Zoom in on Fagradalsfjall. Pull the transparancy slider to the left so you see the features show through. Note how the fault line goes right through the crater.
Now enable 2018-2022, láréttar. This shows the effects of the rifting from the first two eruptions. Note the sharp transition running east-west. This shows the stretch of the main Reykjanes fault that has moved up to 2022. The sharpest part runs roughly from Sundhnúksgigar to Kleifarvatn. We know what happened next. First Litli-Hrútur, then Sundhnúksgigar.
It would be very interesting to see the entire period up until now, to see how much of the fault has already moved and to see what might be next.
https://kort.gis.is/mapview/?app=natt
As we discuss Iceland, the American Iceland (Alaska) has some news about Kupreanof volcano.
“Seismic activity and volcanic gas emissions increased over the past few months and now continue at elevated levels at Mount Kupreanof. This activity is likely caused by a magmatic intrusion beneath the volcano.” https://avo.alaska.edu/volcano/kupreanof
Kupreanof didn’t erupt historically, did only do fumarole activity occasionally.
Sitting there right next to the Stepovak Bay group and about 20 miles from Veniaminof.
Is there any reliable info out there about any recent possible magma intrusions at Kupreanof?
Have any of you been aware of the submarine eruption in the Bismarck Sea at depth of 1300M with an ash plume to 4KM. That seems to be a big eruption to me to over come the water pressure at that depth and extend an eruption plume to 4km. If this were to be above sea level would we be talking about one of the larger eruptions in the 21st century? Curious to hear thoughts on this.
Just watched GeologyHub’s video on it. An eruption so violent that despite how deep it supposedly is, the ash plume reached 13,000 feet into the atmosphere! Can’t even begin to imagine what it would’ve looked like if it erupted on land.
Albert emphasized to me that the volcano is on a ridge, and that it is likely erupting from a far shallower location along it.
I’ll see if this comes up. It’s the graphic from the latest Darwin VAAC report. Gives the location in an easily interpreted way.
Looks like the map updates every 6 hours using the same url & file name. It’s changed from when I first put it up earlier.
So it may expire in a while. It comes from the Darwin VAAC page on the Aussie BoM website.
https://x.com/johnseach/status/2054186856556990489
Since the depth comes from the 1972 signals which may not be the same volcano, the Bismarck Sea is crossed by a ridge (of unclear depth) and the location falls on or near this ridge, and the fact there are two atolls nearby so that at least in parts the ridge get close to sea level, leads me to think that this eruption may be far more shallow than 1300 meters.
I imagine that it’s not an ash plume, but a white steam plume. If there is hot boiling magma 1300m below the surface, there will likely some steam get to the surface. But a viscous explosive eruption at that depth can’t get to the surface with a submarine ash plume.
Kilauea overflows have started. The next episode may not be far off
One quick look at the instruments and I have to agree. It’s very close. I have other plans for tonight, so can’t watch it. Have fun!
Can you still see the instruments? On the Kilauea page I get, all have disappeared
It’s very slow for the past couple of days if not weeks. Eventually they’ll appear, but it might take a reload. The same with directly accessing the instrument graphs, which sometimes take a minute or more to appear.
Now the 3rd overflow is running with a nice dome fountain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXKuUyKt8mc
Meanwhile the northern vent does Strombolian activity:
It is fun to watch the onset of the overflows on the V3 camera. It send a lava flash flood through the channel
Working on my next Io article
I think the ultramafic ultra hot Ionian volcanoes are more fun than almost anything else
writing on it: VC should have the best Io information on the webb
Looks like this is it! Big continuous dome fountaining from the north vent. Tilt hasn’t started dropping however.
With the start of large-scale fountaining now imminent, I wonder how long the cinder cone walls surrounding the north vent are going to last. The walls are riddled with fractures and failed landslides, and IMHO it’s only a matter of time until a possibly massive wall collapse falls directly into the vent.
If a slide does occur with no eruption going on, then the debris would have better chance of forming a dense plug while a slide during an eruption would remelt and the vent stays open.
Talk about trying to put a cork back on a bottle of Champagne immediately after opening it. Once gas starts devolving out of solution through decompression, it will have nowhere to go but sideways if the plug stays intact.
That’s happened in between previous episodes where slumping of material buried the vents.
When the lava rose back up the conduit it just melted it away.
Here it goes, tilt strongly negative and tremor spiked and continuous. Fountain growing by the minute!
wonderful! This is a good one.
Kupreanof awakening checks off some interesting boxes:
1: long period since last eruption
2: set up in an area known for large CFE’s (Aniakchak)
3. Potential for evolved magmas
There were often periods with above-average Fumarole activity without an eruption. I think we can’t know whether we get something like this again now, or whether the signs predict a surprising big explosive eruption.
1994/1995 AVO wrote about the unrest during that year: “Kupreanof is a deeply eroded stratovolcano with no known historical eruptions. Holocene debris avalanche deposits have been recognized, however, and there is a vigorous fumarolic area marked by sulfur deposits at an elevation of 1,524 m (5,000 ft)””
The “Holocene debris avalanche deposits” look like the eruption style of Mt. Rainier. A moderate or small magmatic intrusion may cause a relatively big Phreato-Pelean eruption with Pyroclatic Flows and Lahars.
From what I’ve seen, Kupreanof doesn’t appear to be as well studied or monitored as we would hope it to be. Consequently, I haven’t been able to find any reliable recent info about Kupreanof’s characteristics aside from info like the one you brought up.
The Veniaminof caldera is only about 20 miles from Kupreanof as compared to Kupreanof’s distance from Aniakchak.
Just speculating, but I would guess that it’s more likely that Kupreanof is simply not all that vigorous of a volcano, and not a likely CFE candidate.
My reasoning is that most of the caldera volcanoes in the Aleutians are quite large, and mostly pyroclastic shields. Pre caldera, these were likely very large stratovolcanoes that resembled current Shishaldin volcano as an example. In other words, these volcanoes had an intense supply of magma that first manifested with an intense output of magma. This intense magma supply allowed the construction of a very large magma chamber, which also led to the formation of more advanced viscous magmas.
Kupreanof is comparatively small. And my guess is that the reason why it’s small is that the magma plumbing just isn’t prolific enough to supply lots of magma to build a large and wide edifice like others in the Aleutians. Most volcanoes in the Aleutians start out with andesitic or basaltic andesitic in nature, which is why we see big shields forming there. Now.. later on a lot of these see more evolved magmas, including rhyolite in the big CFE’s here. But that comes after the more mafic stage, and requires a very large magma chamber to be formed.
It could be that it has some evolved magma down there, I would even say that’s likely. But without a CFE, this will probably stay in the ground, and without a sufficiently large magma chamber, it’s unlikely we will see a CFE here in the geologically near future.
All that being said, there are obviously many exceptions to rules or generalizations, so it could be that Kupreanof started out with more evolved magmas, and thus was never able to build the large shield we see at other Aleutian calderas. But I don’t think this would be likely.
Do the Aleutian volcanoes usually have a long quiet period before their CFE’s? To me, the way you described them makes me think that’s not a prerequisite they need (and I could by all means be completely misunderstanding what you wrote).
My other 2 questions I have are which volcano do you think has the largest magma chamber in the Aleutians? (my guess based on what you’ve written in the past is Fisher, or it at least *had* the largest chamber before its CFE) and also which volcano in the Aleutians do you think might be the best candidate for the next CFE? Most likely VERY very hard to impossible questions to answer, but if you do happen to have any ideas I’d love to read them.
Always a pleasure reading your informative comments about the BIG big booms me and Tallis have a penchant for.
I am not entirely sure specifically for the aleutians, but in general, I think the notion that volcanoes need a long quiet period before a CFE is not really true. We actually probably find more of the opposite, where you see increasing large eruptions prior to a caldera event. Not necessarily enormously frequent, but you do often see a trend of larger and larger eruptions and increasingly felsic (evolved) magmas in the eruptions.
I great example of this is Mt. Mazama, aka Crater Lake. Only about 200 years before it’s penultimate VEI-7 caldera formation, it erupted a VEI-6 eruption. I think a lot of people would be inclined to think that after a VEI-6 eruption, a volcano would need to recharge. But in this instance, the VEI-6 was the warmup.
But would Mazama be a rare exception to the “rule” of long quiet periods before a CFE? I’m probably not looking hard enough but I can’t seem to find another example like what happened at Mazama anywhere else in the world.
And, slightly off topic, Mazama has surprised me for a long time in that, aside from a few other volcanoes that’ve done some very large eruptions FAR back in time before the Holocene (or St. Helens), I can’t find an example of a volcano in the Cascades doing a truly MASSIVE CFE event like what Mazama did. At least in the geologically recent time period (mainly the holocene).
Not sure how this will work but I took a peek at the Bismarck Sea eruption on night shift last night. Some lovely imagery from the 12th/13th:
https://bsky.app/profile/eruptionchaser.bsky.social/post/3mlsy65agdk2y
This should hopefully display an image: https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:bazqhebnawsq64xbxb2nm4cu/bafkreieqypzmldu4lklfzb3xvypjg2cdant75jg5opxz4tvf4bsfihqdpy
Nice! What is this L2 filter?
A quick look suggests that the filter will look for suppressed red and blue light. The water will appear with stronger green colour. Chlorophyll has this effect but the same effect can come from suspended particles in the water, so I guess that is what you are seeing here. Just a guess though. Blue light is absorbed by the particles, while in clear water it is reflected through scattering within to the upper meter or so).
That makes sense – I think the effect happens too quickly to say that it’s an actual phytoplankton bloom caused by the presence of nutrients in the submarine ‘plume’ (Monowai eruptions never break surface)
Not so sure, its tropical, the water is warm and the chlorophyll wavelengths may be exaggerated. Interestingly its the first time I have heard mention this effect, which on reflection is to be expected. Hotter water, presumably with added nutrients should rise quickly to the surface. I don’t think people realise how nutrient deficient the oceans are and how small the input of limiting nutrients can be to have a profound effect.
8 hours fountaining now. It is getting low and should cease soon
And it is over. The fountains end with fire: both vents are flaming
The eruption was slightly bigger than E44-46. On the live-cam the lava fountain looked more spectacular than the three predecessors.
It’s now one episode to go to match the number of Pu’u O’o’s transitional 48th episode in summer 1986. For now the summit eruption doesn’t show a sign for a quick transition like Pu’u O’o 1986, but Kilauea can surprise us anytime.
What explains the voluminous intrusion of 130 million m3 and 7400 m3/s of November 2023? Why was inflow stronger even than Bardarbunga’s 2014 eruption?
Did first the gap exist that “called” for the intrusion or did first the magma pressure exist that pushed into this intrusion?
The magma pressure was not extreme. The model suggests that magma opened up the gap, and that this gap then sucked in the magma at a high rate. This fast inflow then provided the pressure to open up the next part of the dike, repeating the process. The highest magma flow rates seem to come in rifting environment.
Will this magma intrusion be the base for future single eruptions of Svartsengi? Maybe it’s kind of a temporal magma chamber, that acts for ~30 years and dies out afterwards.
The Bismarck Sea eruption has been accompanied by some sizeable seismicity. A few M5.0+ now.
I am seeing eruption heights to 28000 ft in the Bismarck Sea. This thing is escalating to over come 130 atmospheres and reach 28K ft seems like a large eruption. Could this thing go caldera and do a Hungatunga?
That will be the height of the plume. And I think the ‘depth’ of 1300 meters should be ignored. That seems very unlikely for an eruption that reaches the surface, and there is no data that confirms it.
Whatever the scale of the eruption may actually be, now that it has our full attention, shall we give the volcano a proper (informal) name?
Ideally it should come from one of the native languages of the Admiralty Islands, but I’m finding it tough to locate dictionaries outside of very basic word lists.
How about ‘paia’? It means ‘volcano’ in the most common language in Papua New Guinea (Tok Pisin).
Officially just been named as Titan (pronounced Teetan) Ridge, as per GeologyHub.
There must have been a name for the ridge already. There are two large atolls on it. It is just that the maps don’t include local PNG names. So is this the original name or a new one that has been made up?
Probably the most recent document containing Bismarck Sea feature names is this open access paper published December 2025: https://seismica.library.mcgill.ca/article/view/2041. The ridge through the Bismarck Sea carries as a whole the name “Bismarck Sea Seismic Lineation” and is subdivided in named individual sections. The volcano seems to be located on what is known as simply the “Western Spreading Ridges” and it itself named “Central Bismarck Sea”, though the paper only mentions volcanic activity and no name. This abstract from 2006, https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006GMS…166..263L/abstract, makes reference to “Central Bismarck Sea lavas”, however, and undoubtedly it would have been mentioned in the 1981 paper the Smithsonian cites, but it doesn’t seem to be available online.
From past research the former paper contains, it is of note that this ridge had only been discovered in 1969 (and called a lineation because it didn’t correspond with known seafloor features at the time). More of the ocean floor was mapped in 1970 by the Australian Bureau of Mineral Resources, which is an important detail as Papua New Guinea was then a territory of Australia. It gained independence in 1975 and Australia did little to no training of its replacement staff prior to the handover. If (re)naming the discovered seafloor features was on the table at all at that point, it ought to have gotten a very low priority thereafter indeed and probably just forgotten altogether (again, if that was on the table in the first place). Thus why I think only these English names exist for anything down there. Additionally, English is also one of the official languages of the country to this day, so I don’t think any other name for the volcano would have existed anyway until the past days with “Titan Ridge”.
Sometimes it’s just that way.
The ridge will not have been known to the locals. But the islands and shoal would be. Here is a map of the region. There are two islands (actually coral reefs, only just at sea level) above the ‘c’ and ‘h’ in ‘archipelago’. The eruption is north of those by some tens of kilometres (I think). I have not yet been able to find names for those islands!
The best I can after some extensive searching, converting coordinates from an 1851 book called “A Directory for the Navigation of the Pacific Ocean [etc.]”, volume 2, page 1034, and eventually, as a last-ditch effort simply putting the found the names in Google, is Sherburne Reef (or Shoal) for the eastern two collectively (also D(r)oppel Reef), centered 3° 19′ 19.5″ S 148° 01′ 25.6″ E, discovered May 15, 1824; and Circular (or Kreis) Reef for the western, centered 3° 24′ 49.8″ S 147° 46′ 50.4″ E, discovered November 7, 1825. No known native names.
Thanks! All western names but at least there are names. I had come across both names in my searches but without indications they were these islands!
I’ve been doing a bit of research looking at bathymetry and navigation charts of the Bismarck Sea and going off the approximate location of the volcano on satellite imagery etc, I believe that it is about 170m below the surface or around 570ft on a rise to the NNW of the Sherburne reef.
Thanks. That makes a lot more sense
Just happened to pop in to VC after a long absence and… what a tremendous post, Albert. Thank you. It really brought vividly to life those scary and jaw-dropping moments as we watched that dike intrusion and wondered whether Grindavik could survive.
Just a brief comment about the harbour, which, as you say, has recently been tectonically improved. Whilst waiting for the ’23 eruption to begin, I took a walk down the Hópsnes peninsula, and near the harbour there’s a plaque that explains how the harbour came into being. It was pretty shallow and small originally but then an enterprising local (in the ?early 20th C; I’ve forgotten) enlisted others to help dig it out. This was initially done at low tide with shovels and wheel-barrows, and then in the mid-century, mechanical diggers were brought in. Hardy and enterprising people, the Icelanders.
Courageous, too: there are several wrecks of large fishing vessels (most recent ?1990) down the W coast of the peninsula, one of them had been swept a good 50m inland from the sea. This video gives a sense of what the seas can be like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPUhV7MYpZE (for those without much time, 1′.00″ – 2′.00″ will have you grateful you don’t have to earn a living from the sea). The harbour has been further improved – by humans – since then.
PS: I was unclear, the video shows a vessel attempting to entre Grindavik harbour.
Succeeding, in fact. Now I know why the bridge is so high, its to see over the waves!!
All for some fish ….
Yes, but to have said so would have taken away the suspense 🙂
writing on my article
Looking forward to it!
Is 200 KB the ideal photo size for VC ?
That should be fine.
Hi Albert I can sourely produce another Ionian post right? I planns to add more good Io content on VC 🙂 We have now 3 good Ionian posts on VC now there will be a 4 th soon. I wants to make good information on Io since its lacking elsewhere on Internet as posts where public can learn.
My tour of Ionian volcanism ( article 2 ) is very famous now on the webb
We takes a look at one of the Io lava flows the best photographed of them all ( Galileo spacecraft )
I will keep producing posts on Io for VC its after all hot sillicate volcanism thats more intense and more fun than we haves here on Earth
Whats lacking is just more space probes to satisfy my hunger for Io
Starting a new article is super – slow but once you have written a bit it becomes very addictive! I will keep producing articles about Io and that will be my main VC subject of tropic in my own posts
Im converting images to 200KB through this link so we can put in some images https://image.pi7.org/compress-image-to-200kb
My first Ionian article in nearly 3 years writing on It and Io will probaly be my main subject for all my VC posts in the comming near future covering diffirent volcanoes there and eruptions
Its about Io as always .. 🙂 cannot resist
Very fast recovery again for Kilauea. We’re just 36 hours post-episode 47 and it’s already a third of the way there. Or – translated into more understandable units – since the episode ended, it has recovered at an average of 15.1 m³/s. Last episode’s average recharge rate eventually, after initially also recovering (after an earthquake swarm temporarily suppressed the rate early on) at a similar rate, came down to 7.3 m³/s because from May ±9th, the inflation slowed to only 1½ to 2 µrad. I expect the same to happen here at some point on or shortly after Monday; excitement doesn’t exist without the banal. Though I didn’t want to withhold this, because it’s the fastest I’ve seen Kilauea recover in a good little while.
My observation is that the powerful double vent episodes deflate the magma chamber more than the recovery, which is unusual for a hawaiian eruption style. But single vent episodes see smaller volumes and recovery tends to overfill more than the next episode erupts.
This is also the only example in Hawaii at least historically, but maybe for centuries or more, where a dual vent lava geyser is a thing, and at this point im actually starting to think it is a major factor in the behavior of the eruption. If this was one vent, I think it would have probably built up more pressure and formed secondary vents alsewhere, stopping the fountaining. But with two vents and the ability to properly depressurize somewhat, its potentially much more resiliant.
Fastest supply rate of any known individual volcano on this planet and at current 15 m3 per second coud be a similar recharge rate to some of the smaller Ionian volcanoes! well Hawaii volcanic complex can be seen as a small Ionian complex in size and likely larger in volume than most flat ionian complexes
It has already slowed down in the past hours. It is still running a bit ahead of the previous recovery period, though. As for the future, perhaps keep an eye on any earthquakes. There don’t seem to be any at the moment and that may be one reason why it is a smooth recovery. If seismic activity in the caldera resumes, it may indicate pressure release and delay the next episode. What would be nice is if the recovery goes to a much higher tilt than before. The last episodes, the changes have been rather smaller than last year. Will that remain or not?
The last few smaller episodes have had a net slight inflation, reversing the net deflation shown on the tiltmeter for the big episodes where south fountains too. South is very much alive but it seems to require a high pressure to fountain and these short repose times dont let enough build up, so it only erupts at the north vents which apparently are easier.
My guess is at some point in the next few episodes, south will fountain again, and possibly even much bigger than the 540m it holds now. But that could still be a few episodes yet.
Also increasingly likely is that the lava in Halemaumau built up over the last 5-6 years catastrophically drains. If it does so by the lake itself directly intruding into the caldera wall then the actual magma system isnt involved, the pressure at the bottom is like being 1.5 km underwater, removing that might well make the summit violently decompress. It is physically extremely similar to the idea Grimsvotn erupts after its lake drains out, only with a lava lake and much higher relevant pressure. Unless it somehow manages to worm around and find its way upslope of Pahala, a lake drainout will be largely harmless here, though nearly inconcievable in intensity, 0.5 km3 in a day. But the summit decompressing so much could be a different story
I’d assume that we are already in the final stages of the episodic eruption, and that after a while a switch towards a steady summit eruption with a rooted, convecting lava lake will follow. But the build-up towards a continuous summit eruption may be explosive like the onset of the lava lake 2008-2009.
The earthquake swarm that happened some weeks ago, was pretty much below the old Halema’uma’u caldera. A slow dyke with moderate gasrich magma may aim there.
Possibly, but I personally think at this point any suggestions the fountains are somehow about to end are premature. Etna has been fountaining at its summit for over a century, Kilauea isnt Etna but theres no specific reason it cant go on for many years, Pu’u O’o failed because its conduit was within a rift zone not because the vent geometry didnt allow.
The current eruption has only had one satellite vent which ultimately amounted to nothing, and despite location and appearences theres actually no rift zone directly connected to the vents either. If anything, the weight of the lava in Halemaumau probably compresses the ground around it and prevents magma accessing the circumferential faults now. But who knows
Shouldn’t we expect that a more effusive eruption with moderately degassed magma follows after the current stage of gasrich magma? Both Mauna Ulu and Pu’u O’o had this two-stage-chronology. It is possible that also the caldera filling period after the great collapse 1790 started with an episodic stage like now and later changed towards a more effusive second stage.
Another M5 at the Bismarck volcano
I was kind of expecting to find CLVD moment tensors, but it seems like the individual quakes are reverse fault and strike slip, consistent with the usual activity along this fault line. It’s probably triggered by changes in strain caused by the eruption.
Yeah I had a look for these too.
The ridge runs roughly parallel to a plate boundary but then continues northwest, and i’ve seen a few maps with multiple microplates in this region. From what I can gather the North Bismarck plate is being subducted under by the South Bismarck plate but there’s also a Manus plate inbetween the two rotating clockwise. And then the Pacific plate behind pushing west/north-west as usual.
The Wikipedia article about the South Bismarck plate indicates that there are microplates at work. In the north the calm/passive Northern Bismarck plate, and in the south the active Southern Bismarck Plate. The volcano is in the border between the plates. The border is called “Bismarck Sea Seismic Lineation (BSSL)”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Bismarck_plate
GVP mentions a historical eruption in the Central Bismarck Sea in 1972 that was probably weaker than the current eruption. https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=250030
The location of the 2026 eruption is “around 16 km SE of the approximated location of a submarine eruption detected by instruments in 1972”
That location agrees with the satellite imagery, which clearly indicates that the plume is coming from a different location than the coordinates recorded in 1972.
Coo study on HTHH from a friend.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2025GC012761
If Hunga tonga is this big then just imagine how big Ioto could be.
🤔
ANBC Aus news item on the Bismarck sea eruption. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-19/papua-new-guinea-volcanic-eruption-bismarck-sea/106697688
The Bismarck sea eruption may have reached the sea surface. Difficult to tell without a better picture, but roughly 2700km2 of sea is covered with pumice currently. https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-3.40833,148.0188,8z
70km2, apologies.
Between Eldey and Reykjanes End a new earthquake swarm occured this afternoon. In this area is no digital deformation monitoring, they can only look at changes of the shorelines of the islands. The last eruption of Eldey was 100 years ago (1926). Does it have an elevated probability to awake again with the volcanic systems on Reykjanes Peninsula?
Oh, I made a mistake. There is indeed a station that monitors deformation of Eldey: https://aflogun.vedur.is/
The longterm deformation shows a slight deflation and northward movement:
My new article been sent… its complete
Its been sent to Albert
Hi folks,
Multiple Icelandic systems rattling the last two days, could someone give an educated overview? Anything of note in regards to potential activity?
Richie
Activity at Vatnajokull is likely the run-up t an M5 earthquake (a ‘Thomas event’). At Reykjanes, there is may be a relation to magma build-up but there is no clear focus of activity at the moment. Other events are in known regions. If the weather is good, the system picks up more events so it can look like increased activity when all it is is better weather!
I think the swarm at Langjökull is a bit interesting. In February there was a progression of quakes along the Prestahnúkur fissure swarm, leading up to an M2.4 at Thórisjökull. After that there has been persistent low level activity at the central volcano. On May 9 a more intense swarm started that included an M3 on May 11. Much of the activity happened at a depth below 10km. On May 16 there was a quite intense cluster of quakes happening below 15km, followed by less intense avtivity at shallower depths in the following days. Today, there was a short but intense burst of quakes at a depth of 5km.
The alignment of epicenters suggest that this could be tectonic quakes on conjugate faults, but the persistence of the activity and the lack of a clear mainshock-aftershock pattern makes this activity something to keep an eye on. The activity is happening right on top of a volcano after all.
Oh, and keep watching for the upcoming M5+ at Bárdarbunga! Any day now…
The countdown is running, today with a nearly magnitude 3 earthquake.
Today was a quake between Hofsjökull and Hekla, on a line between Langjökull and Vatnajökull. Is it together with Hofsjökull’s recent quakes a sign that the WVZ is waking up slowly? 900 AD was the most recent eruption of WVZ on Prestahnúkur. It was around the time, when the Reykjanes Fires began. The Volcano Catalogue shows that the volcanic system of Prestahnúkur occupies the northwestern part of the glacier Langjökull, while the volcano Langjökull is on the southeastern part of the glacier.
Since the collapse in 2018, how much magma has Kilauea refilled and stored or does it basically erupt the majority of inflowing material? I know erupted volume since restarting activity 2020 is around 0.5km³.
It’s a bit mixed, going off of the summit GPS stations. The sole station (BYRL) within the currently-active caldera, Kaluapele, shows it hasn’t fully recovered since the collapse, as do stations PUHI (upper east rift zone) and OUTL (within Powers Caldera, but not Kaluapele). However, station AHUP, on the rim of the much larger Powers Caldera, shows it did fully recover, as do the combined station UWEV-CRIM (Powers Caldera rim to Kaluapele rim, NW-SE) and CNPK on the upper southwest rift zone.
What seems to be general trend, however, is that the stations outside Kaluapele have shown deflation following the start of the current eruption – for so far the data is up-to-date -, while UWEV-CRIM has shown slow inflation and BYRL stabilization after initially deflating at the start. Looking only at the past few weeks, it might be possible more summit stations are stabilizing after deflating for 1½ years, though whether this is just a temporary phase induced by the smaller episodes of late or sustained remains to be seen.
As crazy as it sounds basically all the elastic deformation of 2018 refilled in 2024 so its pretty much all recovered apart from physically filling the collapse hole, which at current rates will take about another year and a bit.
Its pretty likely over 1 km3 of magma has been intruded since 2018
Actually, almost certainly well over 1 km3, and maybe even all of 2018, given how a lot of magma would have gone into filling the 2018 quake south slip volume
Pingback: 20 May 2026 – Volcano News
Regarding the videos, here’s a clearly AI-generated one concerning the Bismarck sea eruption: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjXBIPNgRtE
I wonder how many geographical errors and incongruities there are in total… I stopped watching quite soon and snitched them for fake/misleading contents.
On the other hand, in Indonesia, there has been a 5.2 tremor somewhere between Gilbanta (or Gilibanta?) and Sangeang Api islands:
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/gilbanta-earthquakes.html
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sangeang_api-earthquakes.html
I wonder if those nearby Komodo dragons should be worried?
At https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JB033255 “The Impact of Erosion Efficiency on Rift-Inversion Orogen Evolution: Implications for Serpentinization-Derived Natural H2 Resources”.
Very interesting.
Elon Musk launching tomorrow starship!
If you are in airspace anywhere near the Turks and Caicos, then let you brace yourself!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2m5QaA_W194&pp=ygUNc3RhcnNoaXAgbGl2ZQ%3D%3D&ra=m
Soon
Where’s he being launched to?
Starship launching soon
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1t6Z7wG7HvQ&pp=ygUNc3RhcnNoaXAgbGl2ZQ%3D%3D&ra=m
The Gulf of Pozzuoli (Campi Flegrei) had a 4.4 magnitude Earthquake at three km depth: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/05/21/naples-woken-by-strong-earthquake-as-tremors-hit-city
This aligns to the news that was posted in the “Volcanoes and Volcanism” group on Facebook: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/volcanoes/the-system-is-likely-to-reach-a-breaking-point-major-italian-volcano-is-speeding-toward-a-transition-and-a-major-eruption-could-be-on-the-way?fbclid=IwY2xjawR78SJleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETBGUWVFU3dKOWFlUU9BVEcwc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHsA5ZwkVooda_5jnCuBb9ivPd4a8Bd_osa3kHAlmbK9noTbZ4gnC0WQ50lxm_aem_T6kVdSekfz19pGy-NLgkkA
According to the article “The system is likely to reach a breaking point'”. They expect that the volcano is going to build up towards an eruption or similar significant event within the next decade.
Here is a good page for following the local effects of all those terremoti & scosse: https://www.napolitoday.it/tag/campi-flegrei/
(and also many other news from that lovely city).
Welcome news for the ice core investigative division:
https://watchers.news/epicenter/greenland-ice-core-connects-686-ce-ash-layer-with-oregons-newberry-volcano/
One to watch: a shallow M4.1 right where Pliny died.
M 4.1 – 1 km SSW of Bacoli, Italy (USGS, 21 May)
Oops, sorry Volcanophil, I see you’ve already put it up. The USGS report does have an interactive map you can zoom into though.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UfQHy4mVcBo&pp=ygUNc3RhcnNoaXAgbGl2ZQ%3D%3D&ra=m
Musk launches in 13 hours I guess Albert will watch like a hawk for any flaws with the machines. Yesterdays launch where cancelled
Hope it ends up in pieces.
Haha fire rain over turks and caicos islands but this version should hold up
Watched live on X this morning my time. Intense! They definitely took the scenic route to my country Australia.
Amazing after the failures on the way up to their suborbital trajectory they still managed to land Ship perfectly on target. Flexed around only having 5 of 6 engines throughout most of the flight.
Not so for the booster. Only a partial relight during the landing phase and it looks like it went tail first into the Gulf at Mach 4 with nearly 1000 tons of fuel and LOX on board. If so that would be a volcano-level kaboom!
Yesterday Kilauea did a small DI move, the tiltmeters have run with zero deformation afterwards:
2008 an “increase in numbers of DI events corresponds to the start of the summit eruption, when gas emissions from the summit increased markedly (by about a factor of 4–5). As magma loses gas, it becomes denser and sinks, allowing less dense, gas-rich magma to rise towards the surface.” https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-di-events-kilauea-what-are-they-and-what-do-they-mean
Before 2008 Kilauea had few DI events per year. In 2008 it changed to 47 or more per year for the following years. So we can expect that an increasing number of DI events can be an indicator for a change of the summit eruption towards an open convecting lava lake.
M5.7 at the Bismarck kraken. 5.8 on RaspberryShake.
I wonder how large it can possibly trigger, a quick search on earthquake usgs site back to 1900 suggests an M7.4 on (roughly) the same interface.
test
another test
Let’s see if we can post again:
NASA has done it again! They published a nice article about the eruption in the Bismarck Sea, including this cool picture:
The whole article can be found here:
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/new-eruption-in-the-bismarck-sea/
A big THANK YOU to the helpers in the background who fixed the website / posting interface.
You are much appreciated!
Comment works now
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Best website ever right ?
My post comming soon 🙂
New post is up! LIP watching with Jesper: it is out of this world
https://www.volcanocafe.org/a-tour-of-ios-prometheus-lava-flow-when-galileo-spacecraft-captured-hot-flowing-pahoehoe-breakouts/