Columbia flood basalt. Copyright Marli Miller, https://geologypics.com, educational, non-commercial usage
Greetings. This article has a long history of not being written. It originated a few years ago when the 2018 lower Puna eruption was on going. Before I start, let me vent. IN MY OPINION, there is no such thing as a “Supervolcano”. That term was popularised by the BBC for their disaster movie of the same name, released in 2005. Oddly, Wikipedia nails it. “It is based on the speculated and potential eruption of the volcanic Yellowstone Caldera” (bold added). As far as entertainment value, it’s passable (sort of)… as volcano disaster movies go, it beats ‘Dante’s Peak’ where a pickup truck crashing into a cave can save you from a pyroclastic flow! (Not to mention Cris Pratt and the dinosaurs outpacing one in a Jurassic World movie) -> not his fault, he just does the acting.
The term ‘supervolcano’ doesn’t even have a definition that can be tested. Amazingly, it was first used for the Three Sisters! At one time in the early 1900’s it was proposed that the Three Sisters were one volcano. This was proven wrong in the mid-1900’s, and in a discussion of this proof, the term ‘super’volcano was first used – to describe something that did not exist! Like ‘Big Bang’, it was a term coined to sound silly.
Later (much later) the word ‘supereruption’ became in use for VEI-8 eruptions, and after that a ‘supervolcano’ was one capable of a ‘supereruption’. That is not helpful either. To know it is capable it should have done one. But a supereruption obliterates the original volcano and leaves a very large hole in the ground – a caldera. Are the myriad large calderas of Hokkaido supervolcanoes? How about the collection of large calderas on Rabul? The three calderas of the Los Frailes volcanic complex in southern Spain? See https://www.usgs.gov/news/a-personal-commentary-why-i-dislike-term-supervolcano-and-what-we-should-be-saying-instead who argue that ‘supereruption’ is definable, but ‘supervolcano’ is not. That comes from YVO, so they should know!
A more accurate term is “Large Caldera Eruption”. With that term, all an eruption has to do is be in the upper half of caldera forming eruptions. A good reference would be the table of data compiled by Dr Peter L Ward that documents pretty near every major eruption for the past few million years. Find the size of the listed calderas, and the upper half of the size would be the large calderas. Spoiler alert, there are a lot more than you would expect. A clue for the doom mongers…. Yellowstone is not currently erupting, nor does it seem to be in a run up phase to do so. Tondano, a large caldera system in Indonesia, has frequent eruptions yet the doom mongers never seem to notice.
To quote Carl le Strange from a previous incarnation of VolcanoCafe:
“Some volcanoes just can’t catch a break. Imagine for a little while that you are a bona-fidé supervolcano. You are the largest of your type on the planet, you are highly active, and by gosh you have shown what you are capable of. In a perfect world your 20 by 30 km caldera explosion should have put the world into awe, and the 1,000 cubic kilometer of DRE you ejected in the form of pumacious tuff covers an entire sub-continent. Yep, you really did reach the small highly exclusive club of VEI-8 volcanoes. You smirk at your little sibling Monte Somma’s antics with Vesuvius. Your Vesuvius-style event left a 3.5 by 5 km God honest caldera on its own. To top it off you have a huge underground reservoir of liquid acid that would seriously alter the planets weather if you felt like discharging it. You are also perfectly located to have a maximum kill ratio. So, you wake up and stretch your arms and start a double eruption from two different sub-volcanoes just to celebrate the new day. You have your largest eruption in recorded history. Then you look around to see the fearful faces of the residents as they offer up motorcycles in your name, you expect volcanologists doing somersaults as they play lip banjo, and literally thousands of blog pages glorifying your power and shear awesomeness. What do you find? Yawning people and a cockerel trying to wake up a pig sty. You find that for being an erupting supervolcano you are a massive PR failure. One single small earthquake at Yellowstone outperforms you in publicity.” (September 27, 2012).
And yes, as large calderas go, Tondano is MASSIVE. But that is not why I’m writing this.
Source: USGS. The extent of the Columbia River Basalt group. https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/columbia-river-basalt-group-stretches-oregon-idaho
I have long had an interest in the Columbia flood basalts. This is a young flood basalt which covers Washington, Oregon and bits of Idaho and Nevada – making it a ‘small’ flood basalt. It erupted 16 million years ago, over a period of about 1 million years. The oldest part is at Steens mountain, at the southern end of the Columbia flood basalt. This is also near the start of the hot spot trail that left seven volcanic fields with large calderas, starting at McDermitt (16.5 million years ago) and stretching all over Idaho before ending (?) at Yellowstone (2 million years ago). Where did the hot spot come from? The trail prior to 16 million years has not just gone cold, it isn’t there. And how did a flood basalt morph into an explosive large caldera trail?
My original thinking was that the magma upwelling behind the detaching Farallon Plate after it’s full subduction had caused it. There is a high probability that that was wrong. My current thinking, based on several videos by Nick Zenter (the chalk board guy at Central Washington University), is that the Yellowstone hot spot used to be the nexus of an island, not dissimilar to Iceland, that subducted/accreted and eventually tracked to it’s current location. Whether it was part of an island chain or a ribbon continent depends on what paper you read. Accreted terrane is accreted terrane. Through petrological analysis of the accreted complexes it is evident that several sequences have been plastered onto the North American craton. Zircon analysis show that some sources originated from the west as well as the east.
While watching some of Zentner’s videos, I learned of an isotropic characteristic that tells whether a magma erupted through an accretionary complex, or through a craton. Essentially, the Strontium 0.706 line denotes the boundary of the North American Craton. This is the line where the 87Sr/86Sr ratio changes from below to above this value: the higher values are found where there is continental crust. (It is the green line in the plot, derived from multiple sources, principally USGS data.) It is in effect where North America ends and the accreted terranes begin. Notice that the Large Caldera events did not begin until the hotspot had passed under the North American craton, with all of it’s continental sticky silica. Steens Mountain, linked to the Columbia Flood basalts, is on the other side.
(There is disagreement whether this line is the edge of the North American craton or of continental crust in general. But that is not the main point. It shows where there is mainly oceanic crust or mainly continental crust regardless of their precise origin.)
Something interesting happens when you look at the 4.5 km geothermal potential;
Take a look near Redding California. South of there is the Mendicino National forest. Coincidentally, near there is the Mendicino triple junction, the northern end of the San Andreas strike-slip fault. What else is at or near Mendicino? (From a quick Google search) “The Geysers is the world’s largest geothermal field, containing a complex of 18 geothermal power plants, drawing steam from more than 350 wells.” Strangely enough, that bar of elevated geothermal potential seems to point at the well known track of the Yellowstone hot spot. From my previous plotting frenzy during the lower Puna eruption, I estimated the Yellowstone hotspot as being located just off the coast of California/Oregon area about 30 million years ago. This fits with other work I have seen by actual geologists. I attempted to recreate that plot for this article, but failed spectacularly. I didn’t have time to back out the relative plate motions since then. (Either way, my calculations were off by an easy 1% in distance alone and my bearing calculations were horrendous.)
After watching a series of Nick Zentner’s videos, I have come to the conclusion that the Yellowstone hot spot, at one time was the forming mechanism of an island not unlike Iceland. Zentner relates three possible ideas of what collided with the North American craton. They range from an island chain, to a super terrane, somewhat continental in nature. Continents can be quite diminutive. New Zealand is a good example. “Zealandia” is a proposed submerged continent with only New Zealand itself still above water. Palawan Island in the Philippines is a crustal shard that detached from Asia quite some time ago. Mindoro Island being the eastern end that is currently smashing into the Philippines near the mobile belt. (See my “Sleeper Fish” article on VC from years ago). Other things that come up in Zentner’s videos is that multiple subduction zones and terranes have accumulated, building Washington State and Oregon much like an encrustation of bugs on a windshield… complete with carbonate platforms from ex reef system when the islands were bopping around out in the south pacific. The “Baja BC” idea stems from palaeomagnetic evidence that shows many of Washington State and Oregon’s plutons and rock structures originated as much as 3000 miles south of their current latitude. (Hence the “Baja” part of the term)
My contention is that SOMETHING… sort of a cross between Iceland and the Philippines, impacted the North American craton. I say Philippines because it currently has both eastward and westward subduction occurring on either side and serves as a good example of you can have both forms of subduction on an island chain. Siletzia, or the previous terranes, (Insular etc.) existed as a hotspot driven island/continent at the focus of at least one spreading center with other crustal boundaries attached. The long departed Kula plate was likely the northern plate of that spreading center. What other hot spot sits in a spreading center? Iceland.
My apologies for harping on the Philippine example. I have been a bit obsessed by the battle of Samar Island, the location of probably the stupidest tactical blunder I have ever heard of. {Not really Admiral Kurita’s fault, he was inundated by the details of conflicting information from the fog of war. He made his decisions based on mission guidelines handed down to him by bureaucrats and what he had at hand for intelligence… plus what he could see for himself}
It turns out that similar ideas to mine had already been proposed. Siletzia accreted on western America around 50 million years ago. It still forms the west side, extending underneath part of the Cascades. After accreting, the terrane rotated by 75 degrees. It has made things rather complicated. Siletzia is a flood basalt, older than the Columbia basalt and also much larger. It is dated to 50-55 million years ago. The suggestion has been made that it was formed at the Kula-Fallaron spreading ridge and that the Yellowstone hot spot was at the right place at the right time. This was the original Iceland (or at least a subtropical version), which 8 million years later was plastered onto America. See Wells et al 2014.
From Wells et al., 2014: accretion of Siletiza and Yakutat (Y). YHS indicates the possible locations of the Yellowstone hot spot
The Columbia flood basalt still needs an explanation. One suggestion (Wells) is that the hot spot was reactivated by slab rollback, and melted through the Siletzia basalt. But the main point made here is that shortly after, the Yellowstone hot spot entered the area of the old continental plate and that this started the sequence of large caldera eruptions.
Getting away from that, in Idaho, north of the Yellowstone HS track, is a mining district that produces ample silver and gold from the mineralization of emplaced plutons. These are likely the result of the YHP pushing magma up that never actually erupted. The mineralization following a process similar to the Los Frailes caldera systems of southern Spain (not quite as stupendous as Yellowstone, but large calderas unto themselves.) A USGS article on the topic.
How all of this relates to the formation of the Rocky Mountains and the formation of the Basin and Range province I’ll leave up to Mr Zentner’s videos. My advice is to load up on coffee and clear your schedule for an afternoon or so. They are fascinating.
One final item. The Philippines is claimed by Wikipedia to encompass around 120,000 sq miles of land. Washington State – 66,544 sq miles, Oregon – 95,997 sq miles. So whatever actually collided (or was run over by North America) was just a bit larger than the Philippines, possibly even twice that size since much of it is splattered across British Columbia and up into Alaska. Something else to consider. Some theropods were enormous. The first ACTUAL dinosaur bone found in Washington state was on an island near Vancouver. In my book, that goes a long way in calling the colliding land mass a small continent… unless dinosaurs similar to T-Rex were adept open ocean swimmers.
If you wish to study this further, I recommend Nick Zentner’s collection of references on Baja BC.
For his videos: Eocene A to Z is quite informative.
By the way, when it comes to the idea that Yellowstone is over due… in my opinion that is “bovine excrement.” Look at the time periods of the known Yellowstone originated large caldera events, you get a “due” date period of about 3.54 to 2.97 million years at the 90% confidence interval. At best you will get yet ANOTHER caldera infill event as the caldera floor gets paved over. If you don’t have a good lid on the pot, you are not going to get over pressurization. Maar style eruptions? Yes, that is possible. West Thumb is one such feature in Yellowstone lake. And as you know, volcanoes tend to erupt in a similar manner as they have previously done. Years ago, I tracked one collection of seismic events NE through Yellowstone lake up towards “Fishing Bridge.” I believe underwater surveys found pillow lavas down there some time before that. For those that don’t know, the “moon-bat” community was frantic that we were all going to die. I know because I was reading many of their discussion forums.
I have been advised to write a closing statement. This is difficult to do. I have the unfortunate characteristic of not being able to shut up once I have made my point. The best that I can do is to tell you that there is a huge amount of stuff that is far more entertaining than what you find on the TV. You just have to dig around on the internet to find the relevant papers. Some of what I did not address is the La Garita caldera in Colorado. My initial feel is that it was formed due to decompression melt from the crinkling of the North American craton as the various terranes accreted. Additionally, how did the Meteor hotspot get on the other side of the Atlantic spreading center? It has been implicated at reactivating the Reelfoot Rift, a precambrian weakness that was in competition at becoming the Atlantic Basin when it opened up about 200 myr ago. Back during the Atlantic Basin’s early life is when the Canary Islands began forming. They sit on top of phyllite. Metamorphed basin sediment. (The white part of the “floaters” from La Restinga pumice).
In short, if you have a question about geophysical processes. The data is out there, all you have to do is go find it. If we can’t answer it here, someone has probably already written a paper on the topic.
Many thanks to Albert for kicking me in the arse to get up and actually write this article that I have had rolling around in the back of my head for years. Additionally, he helped smooth out some of my disjointed thoughts on the matter.
Geolurking, July 2023
The old tunnel had not become blocked. Lava’s starting to emerge from the other end.
Looks like it will be a long lived eruption
Its going to last months probaly I guess
The very birth of a LIP, lasting a million years with breaks. Thoughts?
Technically it is a LIP already, it isnt a Traps formation but it is an example of a presently forming oceanic plateau, like Kergualen or the many plateaux of uncertain age and origin in the Pacific. Some of those are submarine Traps formations but not all. It is technically a debated topic but it shouldnt be, Iceland is actually much larger than most of the Traps formations, just slower to form. But Kergualen took something like 30 million years to form in the same way (and is continuously active up to the present) and is a LIP despite being in significant part a non-volcanic continental fragment.
So there is an active LIP, just not a traps volcano.
Mantle Xenoliths, Kerguelen:
https://pcigr.eos.ubc.ca/Dominique-Weis/research-areas/kerguelen-mantle-plume/
Waiting for more research about “Icelandia”.
Kilauea is starting to get swarms of quakes along the SWRZ connector again, right under the OUTL station. If it is like last time we might be about 1-2 months from the next eruption but the level of inflation is now much higher so things could ramp up quicker.
In some ways the activity now is similar to when Pu’u O’o was episodic in the mid 1980s, only that it creates a new dike every time and has larger bursts at longer intervals.
There is a possibility that the next eruption does an eruptive fissure from the summit caldera, where the previous eruption happened, to SWRZ. The eruption in June was maybe one of several “transitional” eruptions between the main summit/Pahala eruption 2018 and the next full stage SWRZ eruption.
Between Mauna Ulu 1974 and Puu Oo 1983 there were several small “transitional” eruptions of which the majority only lasted one single day.
Actually after the last eruption I dont think that will happen exactly. The last eruption ended very abruptly with basically no warning, usually when this happens the eruption and vents are open and resume, but here we are in the 2nd month, that shows the vent was never open and was just a dike propped up by pressure, like a pressure cooker.
All of this has lead to pressure building rapidly, it is 60% of what it was before 2018, which is insane given how fast this has happened. Summit eruptions now seem to hardly remove pressure. If an eruption were to begin that went into the Kau desert and used a SWRZ fault, the dike would race down the rift, probably with a major eruption as a result.
Would you expect a summit eruption before it goes down into SWRZ or rather an isolated SWRZ eruption like Puu Oo?
I think the next few eruptions are going to be in Halemaumau still, until the ctarter floor/lava lake gets to about 950 meters elevation or more, then eruptions can probably happen outside of the caldera. But because the crater is filled with mostly liquid lava and not solid flows like was the case before 2018, the first flank eruption might just go the full way down and drain the crater leaving the whole fillign process to start all over again. So something like happened in the early 19th century but on perhaps a slightly smaller and faster scale.
The (monogenetic) volcano has renewed the old SE exit for lava. So it has two paths on which lava can flow out:
https://youtu.be/yJfiMhqLgTY
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJfiMhqLgTY&w=1175&h=661%5D
If I lived in Iceland, I’d volunteer to run the little ‘diffuser dot’ to cover the faces of those who wish to clog up the screen.
If I lived in Iceland, I’d volunteer to haul off to jail everyone who violated the hazard zone prohibition. That would solve not only the camera issue for the rest of the world, but the risk of potential wrongful death suits for loss Iceland might face for failing to adequately guard against the dangers of an ‘attractive nuisance’ which in personal injury law, this event could be deemed by some volcano savvy ‘Johnny Cochran’.
Maybe your jailing idea is the reason why you don’t live in Iceland. They are liberal folks.
Maybe the idea of creating a hazard zone should be backed by enforcement to deter the braindead from standing 65 feet from a raging cauldron, or walking on fresh lava in one’s flip-flops.. The former are known to have dodged a bullet from being barbecued by fortunately leaving there an hour before the wall collapsed. There’ being ‘liberal’ and there’s tempering it with wisdom and sensibility for the sake of the public good and welfare.
I have never been able to understand why tourists are so self-absorbed that with a beautiful act of nature to look at they must try to ogle themselves on their phones in front of the camera. Total narcissism.
I so wish the camera had a sensor on the front that tells them from a loudspeaker to move away from the camera. I would at least enjoy their embarrasement.
Bloody hell, there are people standing fairly close to the east side of the cone, easily in the danger zone if that side of it gives way. Did none of them see the video of the other day’s breach?
Lining up to be a hot lunch for sure!
Too bad it’s a chore to see them – the cameras that RUV uses have their iris’ closed so much, it’s hard to see much detail on the land or the cone. Good locations, but not-so-good camera settings.
I was just thinking that. And that east side doesn’t fill me with confidence. 🙁
I had to turn it off, I can’t watch people die on a live stream 🙁
A quote from Charles Dickens comes to mind, but I trust Albert would protest.
The lava lake looks to be on the rise again. Flow from the south channel seems to be more restricted. Will it overflow, or will something pop?
Didn’t quite make it this time. Let’s see what the next surge brings. The leak on the NW side has been looking very quiet, but it just had a quick squirt, to let us know it was still hiding round the corner.
16:15:35 a dust devil forms at the edge of the lava east of the cone and then sweeps right over where people were gathered.
16:18:30 a chunk of the inner west wall delaminates and slides down.
Oh, just caught a dust/ash devil on the Driffellshraun camera!
@16:23 Iceland time
Ah, that brings back memories from the 2021 eruptions for sure. I still remember the lava devils we used to see on the lava rivers from time to time!
Pretty:
More pictures:
https://guidetoiceland.is/best-of-iceland/complete-guide-to-the-2023-eruption-of-litli-hrutur-volcano
While the lava fountain and lava output rate are very constant, the surrounding lava landscape and flows change their shape all the time.
If we look at the shield Þráinsskjöldur, it has no cone on the peak. Where were the vents that built Þráinsskjöldur? Was Little Keilir one of those prehistoric cones that built the vent? But Little Keilir has no crater. Are the craters all eroded away since 8000 years before now?
If you check out the maps at https://jardfraedikort.is/, there is a geology map if you in the menu choose the very last item: Grunnkort -> Jarðfræðikort. Zoom in on Þráinsskjöldur, and you see somthing that looks like the top of the shield between Fagradals-Hagafell and Litlihrutur.
17:30:40 something uncorks in the western exit and the flow rate there surges. Over the next 10 minutes the level in the cone drops and the eastern exit shuts down again.
I personally am hoping the heavily smoking area of the cone wall staight ahead on the cam will POP.
I woke up this morning late, so had to step through all of the hours activities. 10 am definite surge and overflow onto the old SE lava path and some vent seemed to be active there for awhile pushing lava up and over. At one point there were definitely 3 leakage points, the two obvious ones and the NW vent hidden behind the camera. But by 17:00 the lava level dropped and we went back to one (or two) exits again.
What fascinated me was how hot gas drilled an exit hole over the submerged exit and you could see the orange glow from the venting. Evidently the hot gas is actually able to melt through the lava above it seeking exit. This chimney was fairly persistent from 10 am to 5 pm.
This is interesting the past 8 hours or so, the ODF highpass seismogram
shows definite surging.
Interesting (Icelandic, but Google allows translation) article about Thrainsskjöldur, the Central Player of Fagradalsfjall: https://ferlir.is/thrainsskjoldur/
The size of the shield is onshore 135 km². But we have to add the submarine part which has a size of 11 km². The volume is 5km³. Here you can see the shape of Thrainsskjöldur on the peninsula:
The map shows that the current lava flow is in opposite direction to the dominating way of Thrainsskjöldur’s lava flows: North. Future eruptions may move further to the north and flood the coast and interrupt the Northern Coast Road.
The eruptions 2021 and 2022 were maybe only the “Vorspiel” (prelude) of the whole thing …
Not too funny for Reykjavik one day, it seems.
Quote: Experts have also speculated that Reykjanesbraut, the main road connecting Reykjavík and Keflavík International Airport, could be threatened given the right circumstances. In a statement to Vísir, volcanologist Þorvaldur Þórðarson said: “The current seismic activity is located north of the 2022 volcanic fissure, and if the fissure opens to the north, then this will be towards the shield volcano known as Þráinsskjöldur. It is possible that the lava would then run down to the coast, across Reykjanesbraut. If the fissure opens to the north, it has a direct path to the road and down to the coast. However, in order for that to happen, it needs to reach a certain size or a certain output so that it can flow fast enough.”
https://www.icelandreview.com/news/fagradalsfjall-update-quakes-continue-eruption-likely/
I do think that a shield volcano forming is not such an unlikely scenario, but hard to know if it will be the case. The previous Reykjanes Fires did start with a shield volcano after all. 9 km3 Hallmundahraun eruption, in Langjökull, was seemingly the start of the Reykjanes Fires around 900-1000 AD. Eldgjá and Vatnaoldur also occurred around 900 AD and may be related. Then by 1000 AD the Brennisteinsfjöll eruptions were underway, and from there to 1240 there were frequent eruptions in the Reykjanes Peninsula that seemingly migrated westwards until reaching beyond the tip of the peninsula.
Are entrained gases the reason for the vigorous lava churning as it exits the main vent ??
I would presume so.
18:40 crust overturnings at right.
isak@icelandfpv.is is streaming at YOutube right now and there are many peoplle that obviously don’t understand the risks they take, e.g. being next to the crater on the east side. What if the wall fails?
And then the people walking at the lava fields as well…
You can also see a crack in the cone in North-east direction, if the cone fails there, some people will die.
I think I could see four vents in the crater. Two large ones and two smaller ones.
The priest will say: “They died while doing what they liked” – sensation seeking.
The media will say: “Icelandic authorities didn’t pay attention.”
We won’t say anything, just think our part.
I gather cracks can open everywhere, besides there seems to be some gas. In Hawai’i they would close the area.
I think it was closed. But how do propose to police it? Even at Yellowstone people die from going into closed areas.
around 20:28 pm, Isak actually flew very close to the cone and flew through the volcano spatter, still red hot blobs twisting around in the air. He was lucky that the drone didn’t collide with some of those red hot blobs. Very close up pictures!
Can anyone explain the two big rhombal traces on the ODF highpass seismo? One occurred around 19:32 pm and the other around 19:44 pm
Those are often from vehicles passing nearby.
The eruption is really thrashing around in the splatter cone at the moment (11:00pm UK time). What a sight!
How that structure holds together with the weight of molten rock being thrown around is beyond me. Something will give, soon.
Pretty nice lava flow on this livestream at the moment
https://www.youtube.com/live/uZGleOgreBY?feature=share
Absolutely amazing to watch the Litli-Hruter cam tonight. I have been watching in awe! From around 20:30 a new lava river began to form that ran eastwards around the bottom of the cone until it disappeared of the screen.At around 20:45 it could be seen on the Driffelshraun cam coming over the hil, By around 21:50 it was still flowing eastwards down the slope, covering the existing lava and it looked like it was almost at the edge of the existing lava and kooked about to be flowing over the areas where people had been walking earlier today. Truly amazing to watch and well worth turning those cams back to watch it’s progression.
Driffelshraun cam
It is hard to believe how fast this new lava river has flowed, now starting to butn the moss at the front edge as it reaches into virgin territory.
Something has to give in that splatter wall sooner or later. Can you imagine the thousands of tons-worth of molten rock roiling around with gas explosions in it? It’s pretty awesome! The Litli-Hruter North webcam is mesmerising.
00:32 am, hot spot on base of cone at 7 o’clock position is slowly growing. lava level seems to be slowly increasing inside the cone. Hard to tell precisely because camera is out of focus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJfiMhqLgTY Now ast 00:36 hot spot has cooled off some.
ODF highpass seismogram might indicate surging in the next 3-4 hours or so.
00:37:28 first big batch of lava thrown over the crater wall to the old SE exit point, so level of lava is increasing, definitely
00:47:18 hot spot at 7 o’clock reheated again, almost looked like it might surge
01:09 several pale red dots (small hotspots) glowing on the crater outside wall 7 o’clock position to about 9 or 9:30 o’clock, not spatter but genuine hot spots glowing probably from gas effusion.
Yellowstone is fun. Well not if it erupts, but the count of words written about it is enormous.
The insane destruction the world’s scariest supervolcano will cause when it erupts (Daily Express, 22 July)
It actually isn’t a bad article! “Supervolcano” and “VEI 8” do appear in it though. 😀
The Island Park Caldera was the first one, 2,1 Ma. Then Henry Fork, 1,3 Ma. That is quite some time. Curiously the Henry Fork Caldera is in the western corner of the Island Park Caldera. Some people must have realized this astonishing fact. It was certainly seen that the magma chamber is not deep enough for a mantle plume. That is why this Forbes piece might be wrong:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robinandrews/2017/11/24/the-yellowstone-supervolcano-is-slowly-dying/
If that magma chamber always staid put it might rather be the remnant of a meteorite impact or something else. And sure, one day it will want to come out. One day. That Express article says they would realize in time to do a “super-evacuation”. I believe it. They were brillant with Mount St.Helens. So, it would be only an immediate hazard for the animals. I am much more concerned about the way the Neapolitani look at these things.
It is sad that the Naples Area doesn’t belong to the United States. There would be the same amount of words and thoughts, just maybe more justified.
The Express lately also has been running some articles on Campi Flegrei. I doubt many Italians read British tabloids though.
Italian supervolcano on ‘verge of eruption’ – potential disaster zone MAPPED (3 July)
Fine reading in the ‘if it bleeds it leads’ sense! Won’t be when Neapolitans suddenly find a volcano erupting under their city. But Italians don’t seem too worried about future events, it’s their culture.
08:11 am and cone has developed a small leak at the 5 o’clock position
Another one is opening up. Probably wont be long now until something gives.
Line growing up the cone and 2nd helicopter
Is the cone splitting on both ends?
Helicopter checking this out and the north north east vent seems to be leaking too
NNE vent is definitely leaking too
There’s a hole in my bucket…
Looks like both ends are slowly leaking and 3rd helicopter checking out again. Time to grab the popcorn
4th helicopter flight, so someone is really checking this out and the NNE vent seems to be flowing more than the SE end
9:17 and crack has almost reached the top, looks like the cone is splitting?
Minor collapse.
Output at the buttom is much larger now while cracks have appeared at the top. Center crack seems to have collapsed in on itself as no lava is leaking anymore there.
9:23 am and violent surging in the center
9:33 am, NNE vent has stopped and things have calmed down a bit on the SE side, but there is still upwelling of magma on the right most spot where the 2 original spots developed around 8:11 am or so, indicating perhaps magma finding a new route upwards?
09:36:36 sudden gusher to the right spring up, like an artesian well .. fissure opening a bit?
Probably just the old lava tubes where the pressure forced an opening. A bit like stepping on a toothpaste tube.
Reminded me of the hawaiian firehose lava that appeared after a collapse in the lava delta that exposed a lava tube. Basically a laminar flow shooting out horizontally in the air.
Sorry, I didn’t check the timestamp. I thought you meant the cascade of lava at the base of the cone at 09:23. If you zoom in you can see it really gushing out.
The opening of the old channel at 09:36 is just that. The old crusted over channel that used to be the main flow. We know exactly where that flow is coming from. We all saw it form in the early days, when the flow over the southern rim just went straight down a hole. It’s the same hole now, but there’s a higher flow than the tube can consume, so it also overflows at the base.
All of this is still fed from the (now crusted over) overflow on the southern rim. Same thing with the western outlet, we all saw that form in the collapse. Eventually it was crusted over and remodeled into a tube.
These channels change over time and sometimes will be blocked by parts of the rim falling in and later opened up again as the pressure overcomes the blockage.
Amazing that the edifice is still holding, but the numerous outlets at the base help to reduce the pressure on the side walls.
2nd breakout is considerably to the south and surprised me when it suddenly gushed up
Looks like it found the tube from earlier, which was partly buried
but what is feeding it? certainly not the current flows and most likely the dull orange spot in the middle?
Woah. Massive fountain just at the right now. Around 9:35
09:36:36 am
I think the system is draining through deep lava tunnels now. Or the old south vents opened up again.
I agree and lava lake level in the cone has dropped significantly, say 15-20 meters or so?
surging on the ODF highpass seimo
and helicopter flying by again… long flight for the heli.. over an hour or so
Are we sure they are surges and not people / traffic? The times seem suspiciously n during the day and off at night.
Some of them, with a peak in the middle, may be helicopters.
08:40 or so — lava starts overflowing at the right and spreading east of the cone.
09:35 — Significant crust overturnings in the pond west of the cone.
09:36:30 — The exit from the old tunnel east of the cone pops and lava begins gushing out, a lot of it.
looks like lava has found a new way to exit, almost abandoning the current cone and coming up underneath, just to the SE of the cone around the 4 o’clock position, you can see the upwelling by the dull red color of the lava sheet spreading out
10:24:21 am – small orange spot at the base of the cone again, trying to get started again, and you can see the flow occasionally spurts up higher up the cone, just as before.
Big ashnado just came through i think. Trying to get a time
10:26
Another at 10:45, seen on the Litli Hrutur camera.
This cone now seems to have more holes than a billiard table. I can’t help wondering when the next collapse is likely to be, Thankfully there are no people in the danger area at the end of the new rivers. Must assume the police have closed off that area.
Now a lave run too the north started at 11:32 ween on the North cam
I hope so. There could’ve been a catastrophy yesterday with all that people close to the cone and as it had a large crack in the wall.
With that said, the old channel has no hole (or a too small hole) through the wall, at least some of the lava running there is overspill as the holes are not giving enough output to keep the level of the lava lake low enough. It is however hard to see the spill as it runs in a deep crack in the side of the code.
It is leaking in all directions and flowing in all directions. Shield building in action
Lava from the western pond seems to have found a route north. It’s burning moss up there and has abandoned the two channels south of the cone.
Given the camera at Hruter Nord is put there for the world to watch, what motivation has a middle-aged Icelandic bloke to stand right bang in front of it? And wave, too. Sigh.
What motivation?? Because he can!! After three season you should know that by now. Any restrictions, they’ll come by droves and ‘Crazy Glue’ themselves to Litli-Hrutur.
Another tube popped open just below the other one.
I think the cone is pretty stable right now. But the whole field is now riddled with lava tubes that pop open as pressure demands it.
Need a good break-out from the west lake to take some pressure off the other (new) tubes – should help when the lake has drained off and allow easier egress for lava (?).
https://twitter.com/etnaboris/status/1683038153106391040
Since about one week, #Etna is releasing dozens of gas rings (also called “volcanic vortex rings”) every day. They come from a narrow vent in the SE part of the Bocca Nuova crater, one of the four active summit craters of the volcano, the same vent described in my previous post.
Thanks for the link to Boris Behncke’s Twitter post. I love to see those volcano rings. I still remember the joy of seeing one when Eyjafjallajökull erupted so many years ago.
All of these lava rivers and overflows will all eventually take the southern route though. The land to the west is too high unless the eruption lasted more than 6 months which is very unlikely
That crack on the south of the cone has started up again and grown considerably. Last time we saw this there was a minor collapse not long after.
Also a new tube burst.
And there it goes! Big spill now just aside that location.
At this rate I suspect the walls will give out soon.
Just now (13:52) a partial cone collapse has opened a new channel along the southern rim. This is a different area than the initial channel when the eruption first started.
IMHO, a cone collapse may be in the infant stages as I write?
Hard to tell. Now that the lava has a easy way to escape the cauldron. That probably should limit the force pushing on the walls and lava through the pipes and cracks.
That part on the front has been sagging and crumbling all morning though. So it may be already to late to safe that one.
A section of the rim fell inward at 14:12.
Looks like this coud be a very long lived eruption
I agree with you Jesper. Only because this is the only one that has mmade such a massive cont that it isn’t likely to smother itself. I think this time it will last until the lava runns out and who knows how long that will be, All of the above is just my wishful thinking most likely.
The lava is apparently 1160 C according to a recent sampling
https://youtu.be/3D6D5Y7InxE
This was sampled in a distal flow though, the lava at the vent is much faster and smoother looking, so is likely somewhere around 1180-1200 C, which was what the 2021 lava was. So seems like it is actually Reykjanes and not Vatnajokull that has got the hottest lava, no doubt the thin crust at the former is a major part.
Holuhraun was 1180 c as well
But yes most of the central volcanoes in Iceland produces cooler magma as it sits in chambers and cools off.
Grimsvötns hottest caldera was 1130 c I think for some tephra estimates ”evolved basalt” but still basaltic
Danger for sour sulfuric rain: https://www.ruv.is/frettir/innlent/2023-07-23-surt-regn-gaeti-fallid-a-morgun-388523
Another paroxysmal eruption at Shishaldin.
More people competing for a darwin award. Foreshortening makes it hard to be sure how close they really are but it looks dangerously close from here.
If the cone collapses they will be flooded by ultra fluid lava like seen here https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u07z4wwNXyk&pp=ygUNQ29uZSBjb2xsYXBzZQ%3D%3D
If you check Isak’s stream from yesterday you’ll see that this spot is indeed close enough that it will probably be flooded if the cone breaks in that direction. Yesterday it was crowded. I think I counted some 20-30 people there.
You can see security still trying to stop the selfie community from playing with the lava on the Driffellshraun cam.
Be assured that the police, the ICE-SAR, et al will do as the British Board of Trade did, upgrading their outdated lifeboat regulations for ships AFTER the Titanic sank.
Mayor pipeburst now (15:35). Creating a huge flow southwards. Which just shows how much lava is flowing underground now and how unstable the whole area is.
This was a surprise to me. We must have a lava gopher digging up lava holes as he goes along disturbing the turf. That’s it! we have a lava gopher at work. 😉
Probably a team of lava lemming diggers.
15:34 lava starts welling up out of nowhere south of the cone. Was there a tube there? I never saw a channel through that spot that might have tubed over.
There is liquid lava below the solid surface. It may come from the lava lake behind it, pushing up the surface and escaping underneath.