Iceland in Washington. A musing on the Yellowstone hot spot

/ 17/07/2023

Columbia flood basalt. Copyright Marli Miller, https://geologypics.com, educational, non-commercial usage

Greetings. This article has a long history of not being written. It originated a few years ago when the 2018 lower Puna eruption was on going. Before I start, let me vent. IN MY OPINION, there is no such thing as a “Supervolcano”. That term was popularised by the BBC for their disaster movie of the same name, released in 2005. Oddly, Wikipedia nails it. “It is based on the speculated and potential eruption of the volcanic Yellowstone Caldera” (bold added). As far as entertainment value, it’s passable (sort of)… as volcano disaster movies go, it beats ‘Dante’s Peak’ where a pickup truck crashing into a cave can save you from a pyroclastic flow!  (Not to mention Cris Pratt and the dinosaurs outpacing one in a Jurassic World movie) -> not his fault, he just does the acting.

The term ‘supervolcano’ doesn’t even have a definition that can be tested. Amazingly, it was first used for the Three Sisters! At one time in the early 1900’s it was proposed that the Three Sisters were one volcano. This was proven wrong in the mid-1900’s, and in a discussion of this proof, the term ‘super’volcano was first used – to describe something that did not exist! Like ‘Big Bang’, it was a term coined to sound silly.

Later (much later) the word ‘supereruption’ became in use for VEI-8 eruptions, and after that a ‘supervolcano’ was one capable of a ‘supereruption’. That is not helpful either. To know it is capable it should have done one. But a supereruption obliterates the original volcano and leaves a very large hole in the ground – a caldera. Are the myriad large calderas of Hokkaido supervolcanoes?  How about the collection of large calderas on Rabul?  The three calderas of the Los Frailes volcanic complex in southern Spain?   See https://www.usgs.gov/news/a-personal-commentary-why-i-dislike-term-supervolcano-and-what-we-should-be-saying-instead who argue that ‘supereruption’ is definable, but ‘supervolcano’ is not. That comes from YVO, so they should know!

A more accurate term is “Large Caldera Eruption”. With that term, all an eruption has to do is be in the upper half of caldera forming eruptions. A good reference would be the table of data compiled by Dr Peter L Ward that documents pretty near every major eruption for the past few million years. Find the size of the listed calderas, and the upper half of the size would be the large calderas. Spoiler alert, there are a lot more than you would expect. A clue for the doom mongers…. Yellowstone is not currently erupting, nor does it seem to be in a run up phase to do so. Tondano, a large caldera system in Indonesia, has frequent eruptions yet the doom mongers never seem to notice.

To quote Carl le Strange from a previous incarnation of VolcanoCafe:

“Some volcanoes just can’t catch a break. Imagine for a little while that you are a bona-fidé supervolcano. You are the largest of your type on the planet, you are highly active, and by gosh you have shown what you are capable of. In a perfect world your 20 by 30 km caldera explosion should have put the world into awe, and the 1,000 cubic kilometer of DRE you ejected in the form of pumacious tuff covers an entire sub-continent. Yep, you really did reach the small highly exclusive club of VEI-8 volcanoes. You smirk at your little sibling Monte Somma’s antics with Vesuvius. Your Vesuvius-style event left a 3.5 by 5 km God honest caldera on its own. To top it off you have a huge underground reservoir of liquid acid that would seriously alter the planets weather if you felt like discharging it. You are also perfectly located to have a maximum kill ratio. So, you wake up and stretch your arms and start a double eruption from two different sub-volcanoes just to celebrate the new day. You have your largest eruption in recorded history. Then you look around to see the fearful faces of the residents as they offer up motorcycles in your name, you expect volcanologists doing somersaults as they play lip banjo, and literally thousands of blog pages glorifying your power and shear awesomeness. What do you find? Yawning people and a cockerel trying to wake up a pig sty. You find that for being an erupting supervolcano you are a massive PR failure. One single small earthquake at Yellowstone outperforms you in publicity.” (September 27, 2012).

And yes, as large calderas go, Tondano is MASSIVE. But that is not why I’m writing this.

Source: USGS. The extent of the Columbia River Basalt group. https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/columbia-river-basalt-group-stretches-oregon-idaho

I have long had an interest in the Columbia flood basalts. This is a young flood basalt which covers Washington, Oregon and bits of Idaho and Nevada – making it a ‘small’ flood basalt. It erupted 16 million years ago, over a period of about 1 million years. The oldest part is at Steens mountain, at the southern end of the Columbia flood basalt. This is also near the start of the hot spot trail that left seven volcanic fields with large calderas, starting at McDermitt (16.5 million years ago) and stretching all over Idaho before ending (?) at Yellowstone (2 million years ago). Where did the hot spot come from? The trail prior to 16 million years has not just gone cold, it isn’t there. And how did a flood basalt morph into an explosive large caldera trail?

My original thinking was that the magma upwelling behind the detaching Farallon Plate after it’s full subduction had caused it. There is a high probability that that was wrong. My current thinking, based on several videos by Nick Zenter (the chalk board guy at Central Washington University), is that the Yellowstone hot spot used to be the nexus of an island, not dissimilar to Iceland, that subducted/accreted and eventually tracked to it’s current location. Whether it was part of an island chain or a ribbon continent depends on what paper you read. Accreted terrane is accreted terrane. Through petrological analysis of the accreted complexes it is evident that several sequences have been plastered onto the North American craton. Zircon analysis show that some sources originated from the west as well as the east.

While watching some of Zentner’s videos, I learned of an isotropic characteristic that tells whether a magma erupted through an accretionary complex, or through a craton. Essentially, the Strontium 0.706 line denotes the boundary of the North American Craton. This is the line where the 87Sr/86Sr ratio changes from below to above this value: the higher values are found where there is continental crust. (It is the green line in the plot, derived from multiple sources, principally USGS data.)  It is in effect where North America ends and the accreted terranes begin. Notice that the Large Caldera events did not begin until the hotspot had passed under the North American craton, with all of it’s continental sticky silica.  Steens Mountain, linked to the Columbia Flood basalts, is on the other side.

(There is disagreement whether this line is the edge of the North American craton or of continental crust in general. But that is not the main point. It shows where there is mainly oceanic crust or mainly continental crust regardless of their precise origin.)

Something interesting happens when you look at the 4.5 km geothermal potential;

Take a look near Redding California.  South of there is the Mendicino National forest.  Coincidentally, near there is the Mendicino triple junction, the northern end of the San Andreas strike-slip fault.  What else is at or near Mendicino?  (From a quick Google search) “The Geysers is the world’s largest geothermal field, containing a complex of 18 geothermal power plants, drawing steam from more than 350 wells.”  Strangely enough, that bar of elevated geothermal potential seems to point at the well known track of the Yellowstone hot spot.  From my previous plotting frenzy during the lower Puna eruption, I estimated the Yellowstone hotspot as being located just off the coast of California/Oregon area about 30 million years ago.  This fits with other work I have seen by actual geologists.  I attempted to recreate that plot for this article, but failed spectacularly.  I didn’t have time to back out the relative plate motions since then.  (Either way, my calculations were off by an easy 1% in distance alone and my bearing calculations were horrendous.)

After watching a series of Nick Zentner’s videos, I have come to the conclusion that the Yellowstone hot spot, at one time was the forming mechanism of an island not unlike Iceland.  Zentner relates three possible ideas of what collided with the North American craton. They range from an island chain, to a super terrane, somewhat continental in nature.  Continents can be quite diminutive.  New Zealand is a good example.  “Zealandia” is a proposed submerged continent with only New Zealand itself still above water.  Palawan Island in the Philippines is a crustal shard that detached from Asia quite some time ago. Mindoro Island being the eastern end that is currently smashing into the Philippines near the mobile belt.  (See my “Sleeper Fish” article on VC from years ago).  Other things that come up in  Zentner’s videos is that multiple subduction zones and terranes have accumulated, building Washington State and Oregon much like an encrustation of bugs on a windshield… complete with carbonate platforms from ex reef system when the islands were bopping around out in the south pacific.  The “Baja BC” idea stems from palaeomagnetic evidence that shows many of Washington State and Oregon’s plutons and rock structures originated as much as 3000 miles south of their current latitude.  (Hence the “Baja” part of the term)

My contention is that SOMETHING… sort of a cross between Iceland and the Philippines, impacted the North American craton.  I say Philippines because it currently has both eastward and westward subduction occurring on either side and serves as a good example of you can have both forms of subduction on an island chain.  Siletzia, or the previous terranes, (Insular etc.) existed as a hotspot driven island/continent at the focus of at least one spreading center with other crustal boundaries attached.  The long departed Kula plate was likely the northern plate of that spreading center.  What other hot spot sits in a spreading center?  Iceland.

My apologies for harping on the Philippine example.  I have been a bit obsessed by the battle of Samar Island, the location of probably the stupidest tactical blunder I have ever heard of.  {Not really Admiral Kurita’s fault, he was inundated by the details of conflicting information from the fog of war.  He made his decisions based on mission guidelines handed down to him by bureaucrats and what he had at hand for intelligence… plus what he could see for himself}

It turns out that similar ideas to mine had already been proposed. Siletzia accreted on western America around 50 million years ago. It still forms the west side, extending underneath part of the Cascades. After accreting, the terrane rotated by 75 degrees. It has made things rather complicated. Siletzia is a flood basalt, older than the Columbia basalt and also much larger. It is dated to 50-55 million years ago. The suggestion has been made that it was formed at the Kula-Fallaron spreading ridge and that the Yellowstone hot spot was at the right place at the right time. This was the original Iceland (or at least a subtropical version), which 8 million years later was plastered onto America. See Wells et al 2014.

From Wells et al., 2014: accretion of Siletiza and Yakutat (Y). YHS indicates the possible locations of the Yellowstone hot spot

The Columbia flood basalt still needs an explanation. One suggestion (Wells) is that the hot spot was reactivated by slab rollback, and melted through the Siletzia basalt. But the main point made here is that shortly after, the Yellowstone hot spot entered the area of the old continental plate and that this started the sequence of large caldera eruptions.

Getting away from that, in Idaho, north of the Yellowstone HS track, is a mining district that produces ample silver and gold from the mineralization of emplaced plutons.  These are likely the result of the YHP pushing magma up that never actually erupted.  The mineralization following a process similar to the Los Frailes caldera systems of southern Spain  (not quite as stupendous as Yellowstone, but large calderas unto themselves.)  A USGS article on the topic.

How all of this relates to the formation of the Rocky Mountains and the formation of the Basin and Range province I’ll leave up to Mr Zentner’s videos.  My advice is to load up on coffee and clear your schedule for an afternoon or so.  They are fascinating.

One final item.  The Philippines is claimed by Wikipedia to encompass around 120,000 sq miles of land.  Washington State – 66,544 sq miles,  Oregon – 95,997 sq miles.   So whatever actually collided (or was run over by North America) was just a bit larger than the Philippines, possibly even twice that size since much of it is splattered across British Columbia and up into Alaska.  Something else to consider.   Some theropods were enormous.  The first ACTUAL dinosaur bone found in Washington state was on an island near Vancouver.  In my book, that goes a long way in calling the colliding land mass a small continent… unless dinosaurs similar to T-Rex were adept open ocean swimmers.

If you wish to study this further, I recommend  Nick Zentner’s collection of references on Baja BC.

For his videos: Eocene A to Z is quite informative.

By the way, when it comes to the idea that Yellowstone is over due… in my opinion that is “bovine excrement.”  Look at the time periods of the known Yellowstone originated large caldera events, you get a “due” date period of about 3.54 to 2.97 million years at the 90% confidence interval.  At best you will get yet ANOTHER caldera infill event as the caldera floor gets paved over.  If you don’t have a good lid on the pot, you are not going to get over pressurization.  Maar style eruptions?  Yes, that is possible.   West Thumb is one such feature in Yellowstone lake.  And as you know, volcanoes tend to erupt in a similar manner as they have previously done.   Years ago, I tracked one collection of seismic events NE through Yellowstone lake up towards “Fishing Bridge.”  I believe underwater surveys found pillow lavas down there some time before that.  For those that don’t know, the “moon-bat” community was frantic that we were all going to die.  I know because I was reading many of their discussion forums.

I have been advised to write a closing statement.  This is difficult to do.  I have the unfortunate characteristic of not being able to shut up once I have made my point.  The best that I can do is to tell you that there is a huge amount of stuff that is far more entertaining than what you find on the TV.  You just have to dig around on the internet to find the relevant papers.   Some of what I did not address is the La Garita caldera in Colorado.  My initial feel is that it was formed due to decompression melt from the crinkling of the North American craton as the various terranes accreted.  Additionally, how did the Meteor hotspot get on the other side of the Atlantic spreading center?  It has been implicated at reactivating the Reelfoot Rift, a precambrian weakness that was in competition at becoming the Atlantic Basin when it opened up about 200 myr ago.  Back during the Atlantic Basin’s early life is when the Canary Islands began forming.  They sit on top of phyllite.   Metamorphed basin sediment.  (The white part of the “floaters” from La Restinga pumice).

In short, if you have a question about geophysical processes.  The data is out there, all you have to do is go find it.  If we can’t answer it here, someone has probably already written a paper on the topic.

Many thanks to Albert for kicking me in the arse to get up and actually write this article that I have had rolling around in the back of my head for years.    Additionally, he helped smooth out some of my disjointed thoughts on the matter.

 
Geolurking, July 2023

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999 thoughts on “Iceland in Washington. A musing on the Yellowstone hot spot”

    • It looks like a giant lava pan 😉

      The fountain/cone still has to take care not to be drowned by the lava pond. That was a reason why the eruption 2021 got problems to continue.

  2. The tremor charts showed a notable jump down at the time of the cone collapse, e.g.

    The drumplots show the same effect. The tremor thus comes from turbulence in the cone.

    Yesterday was the first (minor) sign of pulsing behaviour in the drumplots. It went away in the evening. The eruption is not quite as stable as it seems. The gas pressure which drives the eruption is a bit low. Early days though.

    The eruption rate is identical to that of season 1, at 13 m3/s. That to me suggests this is largely a continuation of the first eruption. Even though the dike is new, the pressure balance is the same. I think this eruption is also at the same altitude as the first Geldingadalir eruption.

    • Coud it last as long as 2021 ?
      I guess the avaible gas determine that alot

      • I strongly doubt that it will last that long! Of course, you could (should?) see this as one eruption with year-long interruptions. That makes it already 2.5 years in total. We talk about the Krafla fires as lasting almost 10 years, while in reality most of that time it was quiet. The current event will become known as the Fagra fires, I expect

    • The eruption has the same vertical limit as 2021 (and the whole shield) at around 238m above sea level. The collapse yesterday/today happened, when the cone and lava level in it rose above this vertical limit.

  4. Looking at this video, one can see the area that now has been filled up with lava just during tha last few hours. That gives an interesting perspective of things.

    • Yes, now lava finally flooded the area which we were watching endless days before the eruption began…
      But the vent is all in all limited. The lava field will rise and drown the lava fountains.

      I’ve the feeling that this episode of Fagradalsfires won’t last very long. Will it end in July or take until August?

      • The lava lake will only drown the fountains if it has enough volume to overcome the gas pressure, which is not impossible but is unlikely in my opinion. Last year the eruption was in a valley and basically flooded itself on day one, this time the potential flooding is going to be done by a perched pond created quite late after the vent has already stabilized, and the pond itself is likely to drain some other way. I expect in the event of the fountain drowning it will return, more like 2021 than last year.

        In any case the lava fountain survived the lava pond within the cone itself being quite a lot higher than the new pond is relatively.

  5. Are all the hills we see in the area the result of previous eruptions? If so it would seem the area is capable of much larger eruptions than we have seen in the last 3 years.

    • The hills are subglacial, but yes the area is potentially capable of large eruptions. The lava surroundign all of the hills is Thrainnskjoldurhraun, which is a shield volcano that was formed in an eruption of 5 km3 of lava, which is as large as Pu’u O’o, a bit bigger even. So a multi-year and probably multi-decade eruption. It was at the end of the Pleistocene just as the glaciers had receded from Reykjanes, when most of the rest of the country was still taking its name very seriously 🙂

      The other systems on Reykjanes also did similar shields, but they had many subsequent eruptions where Fagradalsfjall didnt, only 6000 years ago and then again now in the 2020s. So did it lie dormant for lac of supply or rather because the tectonics didnt favor rifting under a mountain and instead occurred alongside it on both sides, until it became too much in 2021. In the former then we shouldnt expect anything big, not until one of the other systems wakes up. But in the latter scenario, we have 12,000 years of eruptions to catch up on 🙂

      Reykjavik is safe too, it is not downhill in any way, it would take something completely crazy to send any lava from Fagradalsfjall flowing into Reykjavik. And by far the most likely crazy option, is that someone approves housing development extending Reykjavik up to Keflavik… 🙂

      • Also, in terms of size of eruption, remember that the 2021 eruption completely buried one of those ridges and came close on another. Its had bigger eruptions than 2021, sure, and the long gap may allow something huge. But mostly probably stuff similar in size or even smaller keeping in mind glaciers will tend to result in the lava piling up.

      • Thank you for the explanation. I was having a hard time understanding why there are so many highly prominent hills in the area. Glacial containment of the lava explains it.

        I wasn’t expecting Reykjavik to be in peril, I know it’s a long way away and the lava flows south. I used to have a contour map of the whole area from the time of the last eruption, but that computer has pre-deceased me, alas.

      • Something interesting regarding the possibility of a shield and the subglacial eruptions, is that much of Fagradalsfjall is formed by a massive tuya, up to 300 meters thick, created during a long-lived shield eruption under a glacier. Its summit crater is called Langholl.

        That all shield eruptions happen after deglaciation is not true, there are many large shields in Iceland that formed under thick ice cover, like the well known Herdubreid, and there are also shields underwater in the Rekjanes Ridge, Geirfuglasker for example. In fact the largest shield in Iceland is possibly Erikjokull, with 50 km3, which erupted through 1 kilometre of ice, making a giant circular tuya, topped with a ice-emergent shield structure. Brennisteinfjoll has several tuyas formed as subglacial shields, but which are partly concealed under younger lava flows, the largest tuya still has a visible crater and a large 450 meter tall scarp that shows the minimum thickness of the ice when the shield formed.

        • I came to the conclusion that the plateau of Fagradalsfjall is around 100,000 years old and dates to the previous interstadial, so during an ice-free interlude. That is based on the offset of the plateau on either side of Reykjanes fault (which is not really a single break but a 5-km wide zone). I haven’t seen any other date for this – perhaps one exists. The thin ridges date to the ice but the flat plateau was not. Of course, if these fires continue for decades, the entire area may end up equally flat from the new lava. https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-ballad-of-ballareldar-the-dike-the-fissure-and-the-fault/

          • My interpretation is that the plateau is the flat upper portion of a tuya, if you observe the topography the plateau is bounded by steep cliffs, which must have formed against the glacier/meltwater. The flat upper part, the cap lava, which is shield-like, would correspond to effusion above ice/water level. It’s not the most perfect tuya in Iceland, but I think the morphology is there, the tindars to the east would probably postdate the tuya and have partly modified the structure.

          • That is also possible! My data came from the fact that the southernmost part of the plateau is offset by a few kilometers. It is not always obvious what hills belong to each other across a fault especially of there are different ages, but this seemed the most obvious solution

    • The high hills (f.e. Keilir, Kistufell, Litli Hrutur) are subglacial Hyaloclastites from Ice Age, and the lower hills are from Holocene eruptions. Water/Glacier allows lava to rise more vertically, because it stabilizes the structure. Water pressure is much different than air pressure, and this makes volcanic architecture different.

        • Yes, there are modern day active hyaloclastite hills and ridges forming under Vatnajokull, one has been repeatedly active at Gjalp most recently in 1996 and before that in the 1930s. And it is not completely confirmed but very likely that some small ones formed on the rift that opened to create Holuhraun.

          Not sure but it seems like Hyaloclastite is kind of half way between lava and tephra, because it erupts non explosively but is fragmented. I guess it probably would be tephra if it was not confined by the ice though.

          🙂

          • It if fragmentates wouldn’t it be considered explosive? I seem to remember that was the definition of an explosive eruption, at least by some authors, eruptions in which the lava breaks into pieces. And that is why hawaiian lava fountains are considered explosive by some.

          • I guess it falls in that grey area where an argument exists for either definition. I tend t oconsider it explosive if the material actually gets ejected out, fragmentation that is passive like the crumbling front of a thick lava flow or when lava flows quickly underwater is not really explosive although it easily can be if the conditions allow it.

          • I think it’s a good argument. Even lava fountains or hyaloclastite eruptions eject fragment of lava, just over a short distance, so how far does it need to get ejected to be considered explosive? Or does it need to have a bouyant plume of ash? Gray eruptions are that way because a buoyant plume stuffed with ash develops, which absorbs light. But gray eruptions can also involve lava fountains and lava flows in most cases, lava bombs and clumps of spatter travel in a ballistic manner near the vent, similar to lava fountains. Hyaloclastite eruptions also generate a buoyant plume of ash, just of water and not air, that’s where you get the discolored water, so is it water explosive?

          • “Hyaloclastite” eruptions are related to pillow lava eruptions (f.e. Loihi) that happen very often unnoticed along mid-oceanic rift zones. They are effusive because water pressure at that depth makes steam explosions impossible.

            I’d expect that most eruptions of Grimsvötn first begin with effusive “Hyaloclastite” but change to explosive Tephra, when the glacier/water pressure decreases below a certain point. There are mathematical formulas to calculate the point. Mathematics is all about making things easier.

  6. So as Providence seems to provide, they who scoff the law draw the ‘brass ring’.. There were people on that hill last night in violation of the order. They got to witness, record, and preserve ‘the big show’ to what ever advantage it now accrues to them for having done so. It just might be that there are amongst those who stayed away folks who are still alive today.

    • The advantage is a feeling of satisfaction, as always. Any advantage in this world is merely perceived, a human construct. Only that some people get their satisfaction from unusual things, so are seen by others as being crazy.

      • The curse of being on the autism spectrum, that yiu simply finding something genuinely fascinating is just not possible, there MUST be some other reason, and in searching for that reason others are drawn to typically unfair conclusions. One only needs to watch literally any attempt by tge mainstream media at understanding Elon Musk or his companies… because he absolutely built a Lotus with a forklift motor in 2005 specifically to net 200 billion to his name in the 2020s, as opposed to triggering interest in a neglected technology that was an answer to a critical world issue. No it had to be money and self interest, because someone who thinks so different from the rest cant possibly be a good person… That is autism in a nutshell, from an insiders perspective. I suspect in some way a few others here may relate, we just have no public notoriety. Rant over.

        Personally I dont know how it isnt just really obvious that RUV and others use the webcams for their service and put it up for public use as a secondary. There is no grand conspiracy by Big Iceland to mildly troll selected individuals of this platform, no one is that important, and makes intelligent people into fools for falling for it. It happened in the 2021 eruption too, and was just as annoying then as well…

        • Biggest curse is total addiction to the intrest subjects, at least for myself, is not able to be intrested in anything else than Iceland, Hawaii and volcanoes now, and I do craves living in Iceland like mad, and with a nordic citizenship thats very easy, thinks its the most intresting volcanic island. Onlt thing left now for me is to find a relevant job skill, construction industry is large there althrough souch jobs can be dangerous.. so Im looking at everything

          Being as addicted as I am to Iceland there is no doubt I will be able to live there later and I do have a nordic citizenship and have some cash saved but the progress is very slow, alot of life progress been slowed to a crawl due to severe injury from a bicycle accident its a drag… I also doubt my intelligence for really complicated academic studies, but souch skills are not always needed, but wants to find something useful for Iceland

          Not going to be content until I can live and work in Iceland thats how sickly the volcano addiction is, I live in the wrong country

          • Jesper you 100% do not lack for intelligence, I assure you.

            When I first started coming here your comments are one of the major things that endeared me so much to this place; you often have interesting and unique thoughts and ideas that are often very intellectually stimulating.

            You’re a smart dude, believe in yourself.

        • Thank you Chad. Your comments are also helpful to a non autistic spectrum person –
          I learned something other than volcanic passions!!!

    • Looks like peanut brittle or rock candy as you’d be pouring it out.

  8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qkMrq1UilQ

    Quite fitting to that scenery after all …. almost all his castles have lava in them
    It also shows how very viscous paheohoe is on small scales, just as water is more goopy at small scale, in a faster flow this woud be Aa, but I guess at Kilaueas summit…it woud be alot more fluid than these flows

  9. Just pulled this from RUV News regarding the changed flow:
    “Now the flow to the south has decreased significantly and a lava channel is forming to the west. However, nothing is set in stone.”

    Patience, patience.

  10. Well there you have it then. The true tail which is wagging the dog. There’s a price for everything, isn’t there. The Ferengi would be pleased!!

    • What on earth (or space) are you talking about? You’re making yourself very hard to understand.

      • The comment I responded to appears to have been redacted. It suggested that rigorous enforcement of the restricted areas would have a negative impact on tourism and the tourist industry. Res ipsa loquitor.

        • We tend to redact comments that are (perhaps unintentionally) offensive to individuals or organisations. We are not against general comments or discussion such as this. Do be aware that Iceland is a small country and does not have the man power to police a large track of wilderness. They rely on people being sensible. And yes, we are aware that some people seem to be competing for a Darwin award (such as the person who climbed the erupting cone in season 1).

  11. It looks like new channels are starting to establish and lava is heading for the old channel. Will it reestablish the old flow to the south or will it have to make a new path?

    • The length of the lava flow was already impressive, but the South Road is finally saved. This eruption will likely stay somewhere on the summit area of the old shield volcano. But surprises and changes are anytime possible.

      Future eruptions will likely threaten much more the Northern Coast Road than the Southern Road, because (pre)historical lava flows made many ocean entries on the North Coast. The current episode doesn’t impose any threat for infrastructure. But volcano hikers must take care for unexpected developments.

        • I believe that was exactly what I was trying to say 😎

          Now lava has reached into the old channel. Let’s see if it can reuse it or if it has solidified too much.

          • It has only been less than a day and the lava further down is thick and ponded, so should still be fine for a few more days. The first couple km is the uncertain part,

        • Just as if nothing happened….

          With the collapse of most of the western wall of the cone, it should take whatever pressure on the vents there might have been, and hopefully (“should”), will give us (maybe) months of enjoyment….again!

      • lava is now also emerging from a tube just below the channel feeding from the pond

        • And a nice lava fall just formed to make a shorter path from the pond.

  12. I just arrived on volcanocafe

    We have the ‘be nice’ rule. -admin

    • Congratulations, you just arrived and you immediately broke the only rule here – be nice! I suggest you choose your phrasing a bit more civilized.

        • I actually also broke a rule. You shouldn’t talk about moderation unless you are a moderator, which I’m not. Sorry about that!

          Issou942, it was obvious that your opinions about CCN differs from those that have previously been presented here. You are allowed to explain why you think so, but stay away from name calling and profanities. This forum welcomes discussion as long as everyone stick to the ‘be nice’ rule.

  15. Has the northmost vent established a north exit? Around 08:02:25 am there were a few brief spatters which seemed to indicate that this vent is taking a northeast exit now, not the original SE one, and I see smoke which appears to be emanating from that side of the cone. 08:07:32 am showed another brief splat on the NE side. I guess we will have to wait for a drone view to know for sure.

    • Yes, I’d say that there was an attempt to do that.

      The cone still smokes a bit in that area (and currently upslope and south of that), and before the collapse (and during, as seen on that neat drone footage noted in a post above), you can see a finger of lava – which I believe is what you are referencing?

  16. 18:10 7/19
    There are at ;east 2 people between the base of the hill that the camera is based, and in the little strip of moss between the lava. On the left an lobe of lava is getting ready to flow over into the valley they are in. One is wearing white, the other is in darker clothes and harder to see.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJfiMhqLgTY
    mac

    • If you go to around 17:56 you can see them walking around.

      Mac

      • Highly dangerous… a breach of the small rim and they are grilled to perfection.

        • I think there is a slope behind them which is a good escape route, and the wind is towards the lava. It is a bit close but I have seen more people there today.

    • There’s a lot of foreshortening there. I think the lava field is some way further down.
      What I was wondering, at that time (@17:55) is that Gutn Tog standing near the camera!?

  18. Did someone bump into the Little Lamb cam? It’s pointing down into the ground. Like 50% of the screen real estate is just old rocks. Will someone please pan and zoom in on the cone, please! :/

  19. I recommend everyone to check out today’s live stream by Isak Finnbogason. Some really nice shots of lava running down from the pond in huge amounts. He melted the plastic cover of a sensor on the drone.

    https://www.youtube.com/live/04oKbHZ5JM4?feature=share

    There are reports in icelandic news that two tourists were standing on the lava that got flooded just one hour before the collapse. They were really lucky it didn’t happen one hour earlier.

    There’s also reports of a foreign tourist who collapsed near the lava front and later died in the hospital. No details are mentioned but it’s stated that the cause was due to illness.

    • Re: “There are reports in icelandic news that two tourists were standing on the lava that got flooded just one hour before the collapse.” “Look out!” said the blind man, to his deaf daughter!!”

    • Isak’s cinematography is lovely to watch. There’s a small skylight on the northernmost wall of the fissure cone, with hot gas and lava blurps occasionally being seen. I enjoyed the water bombing by the helicopter.
      Not good news about toasty tourists though, and the fatality.

      • I think it’s the same hole that opened up at 3am, one hour before the collapse. There was a small lava flow from it on the north side of the cone and occasional fountains. It was very obvious on the Driffellshraun camera (the other RÚV cam).

        I really like that Isak captures things like the water bombing. He’s got a very good eye for composition and always finds good angles of exactly those things that are interesting. I also like that he plays well with the authorities and never take stupid risks. I think he makes a very good role model for other volcano watchers.

        • Now that makes perfect sense. I did wonder where that small flow had come from, but it got lost in the subsequent collapse and outpouring.

    • Very true – Isak’s camera work is very well done, and very easy on the eyes to watch.

      Thanks for the heads up – I would have looked later in the evening for his live feed, but recorded works just fine as well! 🙂

  20. Some very vigorous fountaining occuring right now (23:45 Iceland time).

  21. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJfiMhqLgTY shows lava undecided on where to go and abandoning a previous route which followed the southern exit.

    Question: Could higher viscosity lava be causing this pileup? Or lower flow rate so some cooling and that cooling increasing viscosity? Just curious as to why the ponding action and slow spreaders.

  23. * The lava seems to have established a stable channel back to where it was going before, with a slight detour.

    * The lava pond west of the cone has largely drained down that channel.

    * The RÚV camera seems to have sprouted a microphone sometime overnight.

    • Yes and probaly coud reach the ocean If it last a few weeks more I guess, the lava will be very viscous Aa at the front, but lava have low conductivity so it should only thicken to a point before it flows by its own heat mass without more thickening

  24. Is it my imagination, or did the initial lavas produced by this eruption seem stickier and more viscous than the current erupted lava?

    • Was very fluid sheet pahoehoe at start but quickly turned into Aa due to eruption rate and high crystal content

    • No it probably was, maybe a bit of magma from one of the several previous intrusions. But gas rich lava will be kind of like foam and that will look more viscous than it really is too.

      It also might be that the crystals couldnt settle out in the high flow rate, which was probably also the case last year but maybe not in 2021, and possibly not now either.
      It seems like this is quite a common thing in Icelandic eruptions, the lava is extremely fluid but it seems much more prone to form a’a than the lava in Hawaii. Holuhraun is mostly a’a, outside of channel overflows really. It is pretty clear from the eruptions in Puna and on Mauna Loa in the past few years that higher eruption rates in Iceland are not a factor, particularly being that both of the former eruptions actually had higher effusion rates than Holuhraun did 🙂

      • In Hawaii the crystals settle out maybe, althrough Hawaii is very crystal poor from the start as very little mineral grains freeze out during the short stoorage time and high supply in Hawaii ..

        Yes Holuhraun had an insane ammount of microlites and explains why it lacked very shiney surfaces still Holuhraun was very fluid and mobile

  25. I’ll say one thing for this years eruption…no washouts due to the weather or smoke. That happened quite a lot in 2021 and 2022.

  26. A series of crust overturnings, some quite substantial, from 12:20 to 12:40 or so, in the stagnant part of the west pond.

  27. The pulsing behaviour is back in the drumplot. They last ~ 2 minutes and occur once per 40 minutes or so

  28. It looks like the lava river is eroding the base back over time, I guess eventually it will get back to the pond and it will all flood out, that should be a sight to see 🙂

    The lava level in the cone is also very high again, probably as high as it was when the side failed the other day, that pond has built up very fast probably about 20 meters or more. Next time it could fail to the east which is downhill, especially if one of the active vents is outside of the crater of the cone on that side.

    • Looks like it will be as big as 2021 perhaps bigger.. its so steady and much higher avarge outflow

  29. Ìsak is planning on flying his drone live again today starting at 19.00 local time, as long as the path is open.

  30. This is quite a article, perhaps a very rare case of rift, hotspot and subduction volcanism are very close together throughout geological history. Based on the models, it reminds me more of a Galápagos-sort-of-thing rather than Icelandic where there are two ridges sprouting from the same area.

    I could only imagine large, Hawaiian-type shield volcanoes alongside explosive stratovolcanoes in a close space, while there is a slim chance of a Nyiragongo-type volcano… the possibilities are quite endless here.

  31. The unexplained feature of the glowing orange spot, someone said “church window” is back again coming from the nothernmost part of the fissure vents complex. I am hoping that someone will take a drone shot of this so it can be determined this is partly optical illusion and partly continuous emission from the northmost vent?

    • Very likely the northernmost vent, maybe active during the peak of a pulse event (by far). It also appeared about half hour before the cone collapsed and was still active for a little longer. Perhaps its appearance might be an indication of higher output rates, but that will no longer be the case as time goes.

    • Since that whole NW section had been, to my recollection, dislodged from the cone during the collapse and repaired by the gods of lava bombs, perhaps what is being seen is the ‘weaker’ areas coming apart. I believe the “church window” from yesterday was a product of the collapse and repair sequence. (Isak did a great service to us all with his fly-bys yesterday and showed what was up with it)

      The level of the lava within the cone itself is getting rather high – would that be considered ‘dangerously high’ (for the general health of the cone itself, I should say)?

      Of note, the top of the downhill lava river is getting much broader, that should allow for some diversion of the lava volume going downhill and fill the shallows that were visible from Isak’s drone trips yesterday….”should” being the operative word – lava will do what lava does.

      🙂

    • Isak Finnbogason’s drone flight today zeroed in on the crater center with high definition and it was clear that the northmost vent is partially shielded by an overhead canopy of solidified lava, thus preventing the vented lava from cooling down quickly, furthermore the northemost vent is partially offset into the wall, as I suspected.

      I guess some events take a drone and close up photos to resolve.

      • On the second flight (21:15+) he showed us the undercutting of the north/northwest cone in a couple places. I think this is part of the section that was displaced by the collapse, but not sure.

        These undercuttings would jive with your noting that the northernmost vent is partially offset under the cone itself.

      • Skjalbreidur must have erupted over a period of years, if not decades, in order to build up a shield that big. The great volume is likely because of all that much magma pent up during the glacial period.

    • Typical aftershock sequence where the largest aftershock is precisely the canonical 1 magnitude below the main shock!

  33. Lower right hand side of the Little Sheep livecam, near where the old channel was–leaky tumulus? Nice pond of lava just popped up within the past half hour, and really got big in the last five minutes.

      • Ah, either mbl has corrected a fault with the cam or perhaps it was the sun going behing the hill as evening drew in. Much better now thankfully’

        • There was another lava pad erupted at the same place at 20:18. I wonder what’s causing it? I wonder if there’s a near-surface intrusion from the main cone, or a pulse from the active flow burrows perpendicularly, or the original eruptive fissure is stirring…?

  36. 22:36:28 South cone partial collapse….close to where the original outflow channel was, and near where the smoke had been visible for days.

  37. A comment about Isak Finnbogason, today he actually took time to answer people’s questions about certain features of the eruption. He did answer my question about the hot spot on the northmost vent, and he actually spent some time investigating users questions about leakage underneath the cone on the northwest side, and yes, there is slow leakage occurring, which needs careful watching.

    I appreciate a person who is not just in to posting the latest greatest Iceland fissure eruption pictures, but who wants to help answer genuine questions about this unique eruption.

    • Randall hi, you might know- who owns the Land where Fagradalsfjall 3 is eruption thanks?

      • I actually do not know who owns that land. You can check the cadastral – see https://geo.fasteignaskra.is/landeignaskra/186766 but I don’t read Icelandic

        Google translate says
        Land ownership
        ID: L221166
        Municipality: Vogar Municipality (2506)
        Type: Weight
        Registered size of land: 11.3 km2
        Measured size of land: 11.2 km2
        Demarcation
        Schedule: 2/2
        Measured size of the mound: 5.8 km2
        Addresses (1)
        Audna district II
        About registration
        Method of registration: Projected drawing/drawn from aerial view
        Delineation accuracy: +/- 5 meters
        Source: Uncertain fitja
        Comment: Projected with the help of coordinates on a measuring sheet According to a measuring sheet in Geymslu ÍÍ, this part is separately marked uncertain on a measuring sheet.

    • I wonder if it’s remnants of the northernmost outflow of the big collapse, finding its way out underneath the new spatter, rebuilt afterwards over the top.

  38. There is quite a proepr lava lake inside the cone now, not just a fountaining vent as before. It has also managed to completely wall off, with all of the outflow through a hole in the side. So the cone could grow quite a lot in a short time now.

    That being said, the cone is alread yquite tall and the lake is very high within it and sloshing around a lot. Another cone collapse could be imminent, probably to the right side (northeast) which is down out over uncovered ground and downhill, the lava could flow very fast. Or it could break out in the spot that it flowed through before the last collapse, which is actually the lowest point on the rim again now if not for the hole in the left side.

    • So glad for this link.
      I stopped making timelapses after season 1 and am happy to see new ones.

      • I for one loved your timelapses and looked forward to them. I do go back and watch them when I need some calm.

        • I also wish to thank you Virtual for those timelapses you used to make so often. I appreciate all the hard work you put in making them for us when the erution wasnt totally fogbound. It was so nice to be able to see all that I had missed during the night.

  41. I just woke up this morning and checked the cone and its pond. The flow rate of the lava possibly seems to have dropped. Right now there are canyon walls and even close to the exit point of the lava at the tunnel in the cone, it is obvious that the lava level has dropped since a few hours ago.

    Is this due to lava cutting a channel and lowering its level automatically, like the water cutting the Grand Canyon, or is it due to the flow rate diminishing?

    • I hate to take the easy way out, but I think it’s both. Also, it could be that lava is making its way to the flow front more efficiently–fewer bends.

      While on that subject, why has there been no video of the flow front during this eruption?

      • Possibly because of the distance involved as it was flowing downhill so quite fast. I do though also find it frustrating not getting good views of the lava flow.

    • The drumplot was quiet for a while (meaning smooth flow in the cone and conduit) but is now very noisy. There may be a bit of an obstruction. Turbulent flow has lower flow rates, so that may be what we are seeing

      .. or the weather has gone bad ..

      • Thanks for that Albert. I used to have a link to the drumplots but inadvertantly deleted the bookmark soon after the Faf one was taken down. so it is good of you to post them when you can.

      • Thanks for the explanation, Albert. Noted the competing hypotheses.

        During past eruptions I lazily depended on the “eruption.acme.to” aggregator, who also posts here on VolcanoCafe, to display the tremor chart. The tremor chart is still part of the display, but that link is broken and does not update.

        Can someone who is in the know post the link for the tremor web page? I’ve poked around http://www.vedur.is but haven’t stumbled upon it.

        Thank you.

        • The ‘faf’ drumplot has succumbed to the eruption. It had to be removed because lava was heading for it. The one we now use is hraun.vedur.is/ja/drumplot/drumplot/odf_highpass_2.0.png. (note it is http , not https) . I am not actually sure where precisely it is located!

    • We’ll see this evening when Isak takes flight how much, if at all, the seepage under the N/NW cone has progressed….if that continued, it’ll be interesting – if not, that too will be interesting.

      Wishy-washy time I guess lol.

      🙂

    • It’s interesting that the current eruption concentrates on a single narrow path like Mauna Loa’s flow like to do. F.e. 2022 all lava went on a small path towards the Saddle. 1984 a long, narrow flow aimed for Hilo (but stopped some miles before). 2023 Fagradalsfjall appears to concentrate on a single direction (SW). Later episodes (f.e. 2024) will supposedly choose another spot for an eruptive vent and a lava flow path. Like on Mauna Loa it depends on where it happens and what the physical geography allows the lava flow to do.

      • To compare both lava flows:

        Fagradalsfjall has until now made a length of approx. 4km from the vent, with much softer slope and much smaller eruption rate. Mauna Loa did nearly 30km, that’s more than whole breadth of Reykjanes peninsula.

    • I noticed Bagana also had a hiccup, was an article about it a year or so back on here

    • Hard to see for the smoke but it definitely wasnt there 5 minutes ago

        • I think this may be the ‘leak’ that Isak spotted with his drone yesterday. Has been a steady but slow output. Been a bit brighter at times tonight though.

          • It definitely looks like a slow leak. at first I though just a hot lava fall but then it seems to have very slowly spread southwestwards from behind the cone. Interesting and may possibly increase if the outflow from the ever decreasing small hole we can see begins to falter. I would prefer the pressure is released by another cone collapse tonight.

  44. Any theories on the sound on the RUV Litli-Hrútur camera.. a whistling some splashing and deep thumps, clearly not the sound from the camera.. I have been trying to see if it’s related to the volcanic activity somehow, but it’s not synced to the activity directly at least, but hard to correlate if it’s out even a few seconds without a specific even to pin a sound on.. Might just be some weied interfecence, just curious if anyone else noticed and thought about it.

    • I am having a guess here but I reckon it IS the sound of the lava. Having made jam in the past it has a similar bubbling sound to boiling jam. Not sure if from the cone or the lava river. There does seem to be a higher pitched sound at times that doesnt seem to fit though.

    • Ok, went back in time to when people were close to it and it is sound from the camera, just very weird and distorted.. would have expected more normal wind sounds but the sound is probably mostly distorted windnoise.. but maybe they enabled the sound so it would be possible to hear if something louder like a collapse would happen?

  45. The reason for the low level in the channel that was discussed yesterday is clearly seen in this timelapse.

    https://youtu.be/Yp284PLzAvk

    At 1:57 in the video, a lava boat knocks away a blockage in the lower right part of the stream. A few moments later, a second lava boat removes even more of the blockage. The speed with witch lava is drained down the stream increased substantially after the blockage was removed and that lowered the level upstream.

    • Lava has in my view shown some erosional force and created a “lava canyon”. At the same time there is a lava lake inside the crater which bears the lava fountain. This dynamic lava lake can cause the crater wall to collapse again and make a lava flash flood.

  46. The lava lake is now filling the crater, higher than I have seen it before. If there is going to be a wall collapse, now is a likely time.

  47. New exit has shrunk enough the cone is overflowing at the old exit.

  48. At 9:50am, the lava has started spilling over the edge, into the old exit channel at the southern end of the cone.

  49. I think the vent is extending a little to the south. It looks like lava explosions are happening right next to the southern wall, if not in it.

    • There’s been a vent there since the beginning, but it has not been very active. It certainly looks more active now than I have seen it for more than a week.

      I believe this is the vent that’s been responsible for the smoking spot on the southern wall.

  50. I had another idea…perhaps there is just a big hole in the wall and pressure waves from the main vent are causing the surges.

    Either way, I’d say we’re just minutes from the southern wall giving way.

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