Taal in Eruption

Volcanic Wedding by Warren S Garcia.

This will probably become one of the most famous wedding pictures in history. I fear that this accidental picture will create a fashion and that people will try to recreate it at ever more dangerous volcanoes.

In this case it was accidental, this wedding was most likely planned for weeks, if not months, prior to the onset of eruption.

Since I know Taal quite well, and know how dangerous it can be, I would probably just have screamed “I do!”, picked up my new wife and galumphed as fast as I could towards higher ground.

Now let us take a look at this eruption in regards of what we can expect in the near future.

 

The history is the future of Taal

“Borrowed” from Sydney Morning Herald. Photographed by Ezra Acayan, Getty Images.

First of all, I would like to point for an in-depth analysis of the past of Taal to Henrik’s (Rest in Peace) eminent article in the New Decade Volcano Program series. All you need to know about the historic eruptions is there:

http://www.volcanocafe.org/the-tiger-in-the-smoke-taal-the-new-decade-volcano-program-8/

I will just rehash three things that is pertinent for the future of Taal. The first part is that Taal enjoys producing series of eruptions of variably sized eruptions. In these series there seems to be no pattern to the sizes of the intra-series eruptions.

In the historic annals we have 5 series of eruptions ranging from VEI-2 up to the 1754 VEI-5. This means that it is likely that what we are seeing is the onset of a new series of eruptions from Volcano Island in Lake Bombon inside the Taal Caldera.

The second thing is that this is a volcano amply able to produce large caldera extending eruptions. The last one of these occurred 5380 BP. I should perhaps explain the BP moniker. As we learned how to date carbon isotopes, we needed a reference date that was prior to the world becoming polluted by atmospheric nuclear explosions, and that at the same time did not signify anything.

So, that is how 1950 was decided to forever be locked down as present. The drawback to this is that we thusly need to perform a bit of mathematics to understand what BP is. In 2020 that formula looks like this 5380+70=5450 years ago, or in more common vernacular 3450BC.

This eruption was a medium sized caldera extending eruption, and there is no evidence at all that the caldera-forming period of Taal has ended, quite the opposite, since the central magma reservoir seems to be remaining, and there is no ring-fault volcanoes that is so typical of caldera-volcanoes in their post (or intermediate) periods.

The third thing to remember is that Taal is amply able to throw out a wide variety of deadly eruptive styles. The list is quite frightening.

Columnar collapse pyroclastic base surges, pyroclastic flows, lahars, volcanic tsunamis, seismic seiches, phreatic eruptions (almost impossible to predict), phreatomagmatic explosive eruptions, Plinian eruptions, Peléan eruptions, and so on.

Obviously, this makes for a very deadly volcano, so far it has killed 1300 people in a single eruption (as far as historic sources know). But it is amply able to outpace that during an unexpected larger eruption since population density has increased in the area.

 

The current eruption

GMA News Online

First of all, I would like to properly state that DOST-PHIVOLCS did stellar work on this eruption, they noticed that something was coming months in advance and raised the alert-level as appropriate leading up to the eruption.

This makes me think about the White Island eruption, the authorities there also saw the signals of unrest, but they did not take it as serious as they should. The similarities are high, but the resulting decisions was quite different. As I said, biggie up for DOST-PHIVOLCS for taking a water-logged volcano seriously in regards of the possibility for a phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruption down the line.

Judging from the pictures and initial reports of ash-fall this seems to be a small to mid-sized VEI-3. No columnar collapse base surge occurred, and no tsunamis or seiches took place. As such this was about as well-behaved as Taal can be. At least so far.

Initial reports from DOST-PHIVOLCS names this as a phreatic detonation. This means that no fresh lava was involved, and that instead water came into contact with hot material and this in turn caused a steam driven detonation hurling old cold fractured rock upwards.

I am not entirely sure that this will hold up, since there were clear signals for quite some time prior to the onset of eruption, I would say it is far more likely that this was a phreatomagmatic eruption. Phreatomagmatic eruptions are what happens when water comes into direct contact with hot magma causing fresh magma to fragmentize in a steam driven fresh material eruption.

I hope that everyone heeded the eruption warnings and calls for evacuation, and that nobody was on Volcano Island as it erupted. If anyone was there, they are quite sous vide cooked by now.

The eruption will most likely abate or stop in the next few hours, most often Taal has short eruptions.

 

The future

Much safer spot to look. Uphill and at a good distance.

It is quite likely that Taal will go into a brief period of dormancy lasting from a few months to a few years before the next eruption in the new sequence occur. The next eruption could be anything from a VEI-2 all the way up to a VEI-5.

A caldera extending VEI-6 is not likely from Volcano Island for two reasons. The first is that the volcano conduit has no problem opening to release excess pressure, and the second thing is that the deep reservoir associated with caldera-extending eruptions is situated at 18km depth under the northern caldera rim. There are no signs at all of an eruption of this size and type being around the corner. Anyone believing that something like that is likely to happen without very noticeable precursor signs is an idiot, and there are no such signs visible.

Now cue tourists going to Volcano Island in droves to take their wedding pictures so that they can get mortally mortadella steam-baked posteriors for posterity.

CARL REHNBERG

256 thoughts on “Taal in Eruption

  1. Another update

    ERUPTION UPDATE FOR TAAL VOLCANO ALERT LEVEL 4 (HAZARDOUS ERUPTION IMMINENT) 14 JANUARY 2020 01:00 PM

    Taal Volcano’s eruption has been characterized by continuous magmatic and hydrovolcanic activity. Lava fountains generated 800-meter tall dark gray steam-laden plumes that drifted to the general southwest.

    New fissures or cracks were observed in Sinisian, Mahabang Dahilig, Dayapan, Palanas, Sangalang, Poblacion, Lemery; Pansipit, Agoncillo; Poblacion 1, Poblacion 2, Poblacion 3, Poblacion 5, Talisay and Poblacion, San Nicolas. A fissure was also documented across the road connecting Agoncillo to Laurel, Batangas.

    The Philippine Seismic Network recorded a total of forty-nine (49) volcanic earthquakes in the Taal region from 2:00 AM to 10:00 AM today. Seven (7) of these earthquakes were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity II to IV in Tagaytay City. The intense seismic activity coupled with fissuring on the caldera region likely signifies continuous magma intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.

    Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and areas at high risk to pyroclastic density currents and volcanic tsunami within a 14-kilometer radius from Taal Main Crater. Areas around Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise the aviation industry to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments.

    DOST-PHIVOLCS

    • The intense earthquake activity and the fissures indicate a major dike intrusion going on, which explains why the lake level has fallen 5 m, some areas of the caldera floor may have subsided while others been uplifted.

    • The reported cracks are all in the southwestern edge of the caldera (the area south west of the lake).

      It covers the area of most intense earthquakes I think.

      • So more or less in the same direction as the 1965 intrusion but this time it has gone outside the caldera. It is very weird because the ground around Taal is almost as high as Taal itself, another volcano would just find a place with a low elevation to erupt but Taal can’t do that.

        The reason why activity has gone down is that Taal is probably busy expanding the dike, but situation is not over. If the dike ends up releasing enough pressure it might be over without any more eruptions but it might not and vents can open or reactivate in the Volcano Island area. In my opinion PHIVOLCS is wise to keep Taal in Alert 4 level.

        • Another possibility is that the summit of Taal (Main Crater) collapses due to the volume removed by the dike, not knowing much about the plumbing of Taal I don’t know if this is a realistic possibility.

    • Where it starts seems close to the red dot on Albert’s heat image…

    • that video is amazing in terms of seeing the very start of the eruption, they were so lucky the guides decided to turn back fast

      • I hope they tipped their guide well.

        After watching this I found this video from 2016. It appears that there might have been steam emissions from this area that drew the tourists. What is amazing is that the guides noticed what may have been a small change in these, or earthquakes, or the animals not wanting to go down, or location of the emissions and got out of there “the smoke is not right”.

    • Hmm. Don’t know where these cracks appeared and if it’s in the evacuation zone, but it doesn’t seem like evacuation has worked

  2. I know this has been building since at least 1977, but the sudden ramp up of activity has come from almost nothing. I would thing this event will be of extreme interest to those studying the precursors and timelines to a potential large caldead eruption, not that this is the case here but it seems that similar events would occur?

    • Should read as caldera but spell check doesn’t like that word for some reason lol

  3. I’m wondering if Taal has been known to erupt lava flows or domes in historical times?

    • An eruption that began on January 31, 1968, produced a black basalt cinder cone, A dark lava flow flowed from that cinder cone to produce a lava delta in Lake Taal was emplaced during the 1968 eruption, which lasted until April 2. This eruption formed a cinder cone, on which was constructed within a 1966 tuff cone whose rim is at the lower right. A lava flow traveled to the lake within an elongated crater produced during the major 1965 eruption.

    • Basalt But indeed a ”cold” and viscous one Probaly even colder than Etnas basalt

      Taals basalts are also rich in magmatic water and CO2 from subducted seawater and sediments
      Gas rich.

      Any Taal lava flows are always Aa lava and Probaly similar to the viscous Heimeay basalt lavas

        • The chance of Taal doing a Jökulhlaup is same as the chance that a giant tortoise can build a particle accelerator…
          if the giant tortoise was supplyed with all materials

          Chance is zero!

          But Taal can produce mudflows and lahars

        • ok. Almost everything. Apart from jokulhaups, flood basalts, and building a Mauna Loa copy.

          • 😂😂😂
            Giant Tortoises woud be excellent to use towards North Korea

            Mass breed then and then send in an army of 100 million giant tortoises! each shelled behemoth fitted with enemy dectecting canons on its shell.

            Kim will get a scaley slow mass assault
            Aaaaaataaack…… ?! 🐢🐢 ….
            Slooooooooooooow

            👎😂

      • Not enough magma has been reputed to be subsiding, so maybe due to the ground deforming? Is Elsa rapid inflation elsewhere within the complex?

        • They have had a lot of earthquakes. But it does look, with this crack, like one side is now higher than the other by about 10 cm or so.

      • It is graben formation above an intruding dike, to me that seems clear. The same thing happened in 1911 affecting the same area with normal faults slipping up to 3 m. As of now large earthquakes >M 3 are still happening (though maybe at reduced rates) so it seems that intrusion continues and more cracks will open.

        In the Taal 1911 eruption 2 days faulting preceded the big explosive eruption and then several more days of faulting and earthquakes followed. Which is what PHIVOLCS seems to be more worried about, if the same scenario plays out again.

        The other eruption to have had cracking (and here is it well accepted that it was a dike intrusion) was 1949, this time to the northeast of Taal. But it is hard to draw comparisons because there is not much info on this event, here the eruption seems to have happened at the start but since the only narrator runned away where there more outbreaks? eruption seems to have lasted 3 days according to other source. Another source mentions frequent earthquakes for a year, which seems an exageration?

        • Actually cracks are also reported for the 1754 eruption, but here information is even more scarce, the paper (A synthesis and review of historical eruptions at Taal Volcano, Southern Luzon, Philippines). intepretates it as extension but doesn’t mention the source. And I can’t tell if it happened to the southwest (like 1911) or northeast (like 1749).

  4. Came across this paper: j.earscirev.2017.11.014
    9 of the eruptions are questionable: 1608+- 3 years (eq swarms); 1634, 1635, 1645 (solfataric); 1790, 1825, 1842, 1873 and 1903 (no reference). That would make this Taal’s 25th historical eruption and not the 34th.

    Admin: removed the link as it is of dubious legality

  5. Latest update > Source:PHIVOLCS

    TAAL VOLCANO BULLETIN: 15 January 2020 8:00 A.M
    For the past 24 hours, Taal Volcano’s activity has been characterized by continuous but generally weaker eruption of the Main Crater due to magmatic and hydrovolcanic processes. This ongoing eruption generated dark gray steam-laden plumes that reached approximately 1000 meters high and dispersed ash to the southwest of the Main Crater.
    New fissures or cracks were observed in Sinisian, Mahabang Dahilig, Dayapan, Palanas, Sangalang, Poblacion, Mataas na Bayan, Lemery; Pansipit, Bilibinwang, Agoncillo; Poblacion 1, Poblacion 2, Poblacion 3, Poblacion 5, Talisay and Poblacion, San Nicolas. A fissure transected the road connecting Agoncillo to Laurel, Batangas.
    The Philippine Seismic Network plotted a total of four hundred sixty-six (466) volcanic earthquakes since 1:00 PM, January 12, 2020. One hundred fifty-six (156) of these were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity I – V. Since 5:00 AM on January 14, 2020 until 5:00 AM today, there were one hundred fifty-nine (159) volcanic earthquakes and twenty-eight (28) of which were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity I – III. Such intense seismic activity probably signifies continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.
    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 1686 tonnes/day on 14 January 2020.
    Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and high-risk areas as identified in the hazard maps within the 14-km radius from Taal Main Crater and along the Pansipit River Valley where fissuring has been observed. Residents around Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise pilots to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments.

    http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/index.php/taal-volcano-bulletin-menu/9642-taal-volcano-bulletin-15-january-2020-8-00-a-m

  6. Are there any specific seismic signals for magma overpressure? I am starting to worry about a subplinian eruption at Taal with all of these cracks

    • In the Live Stream on YT from VolcanoYT is shown, that directly under the Lake Taal 3 earthquakes happend. This could become bad….

    • The cracks are due to extension, when a dike intrudes the ground above suffers from tension stress, it sags and ruptures. PHIVOLCS doesn’t have much experience with dealing with rift zones.

      The intrusion seems to be slowing down with earthquakes more and more unfrequent, still it is not over and until then maintaining the area evacuated seems reasonable (but people are returning anyway). If the caldera faults rupture and water makes its way to the magma the situation can take a turn for the worse, which is what might have happened in 1911, fortunately there doesn’t seem to be much water left in the Main Crater to interact with magma, but still this is a posibility at least from my opinion. The moment when the caldera faults rupture as magma leaves the volcano is unpredictable and it is hard to say if it will get to that (if the dike will remove enough magma).

        • Flyndresnik is correct. The Pansipit River is currently the only surface water drainage channel from Taal lake to the sea. Therefore swift changes in the river levels are significant. Pansipit drains from the south west of Lake Taal, the area subject to current and significant ground changes.

          It is unlikely Lake Taal is finding an alternative route to the sea right now. It is more likely the ongoing ground deformation has raised the lake bed at the Pansipit drainage route, reducing or halting outflow. Accurate measurement of lake levels across Taal Lake are the only way to establish the truth of this.

          At the moment rainfall is seasonally low in the northern Philippines, but the drainage from such a large lake should not change swiftly given the high humidity and inflow from numerous small rivers and streams.

          It is possible a new natural drainage route may be found in time. The areas south west of the lake contain a lot of groundwater, and may start draining the lake through the ground in districts like Barangay Buli to the local stream. It may also affect the Taal Water District’s groundwater pumping station. Therefore changes will have an impact on people in the area.

      • For all. The Pansipit runs through a tephra emplacement that cut off the lake from the sea during a previous eruption.

  7. Most recent update Source:PHIVOLCS
    ERUPTION UPDATE FOR TAAL VOLCANO ALERT LEVEL 4 (HAZARDOUS ERUPTION IMMINENT) 15 JANUARY 2020 05:00 PM

    Taal Volcano’s eruption has been characterized by continuous magmatic and hydrovolcanic activity that generated 700-meter tall dark gray steam-laden plumes that drifted to the general southwest.
    In addition to the previously identified fissures in Lemery (Sinisian, Mahabang Dahilig, Dayapan, Palanas, Sangalang, Poblacion, Mataas na Bayan), Agoncillo (Pansipit, Bilibinwang), Talisay (Poblacion 1, Poblacion 2, Poblacion 3, Poblacion 5) and San Nicolas (Poblacion), new fissures were observed in Sambal Ibaba, Lemery. Drying up of portions of Pansipit River has also been observed. Furthermore, newly acquired satellite images would show that the Main Crater Lake (MCL) has been drained and new vent craters have been formed inside the Main Crater and on the north flank of the volcano.
    The Philippine Seismic Network plotted a total of five hundred twenty (520) volcanic earthquakes since 1:00 PM, January 12, 2020. One hundred sixty-nine (169) of these were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity I – V. Since 5:00 AM to 4:00 PM today, there were fifty-three (53) volcanic earthquakes plotted and twelve (12) of which were felt with intensities ranging from Intensity I – III. Such intense seismic activity probably signifies continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.
    Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and high-risk areas as identified in the hazard maps within the 14-km radius from Taal Main Crater and along the Pansipit River Valley where fissuring has been observed. Residents around Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise pilots to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments.

  8. I wonder if a new vent or vents will break the surface in the main lake? The cracking, lake level changes and numerous earth tremors seem to be painting some sort of picture of wider activity than is currently visible?

    • yes, activity in Taal tends to be spread out. The numerous crater signatures all over the island already indicate this. The cone on the northwest of the island is the most notable sign of an eruption within the lake (or which was lake at that time).

  9. If Taal Lake has dropped by an inch in a day and the only river flowing out of it has stopped flowing, that’s an awful lot of water going somewhere.
    If you do the calculations, you’ll see big numbers.

    • It would be nice to have water level readings across the lake. If the whole lake is being ‘tipped’ to one side the water may not actually be leaving the lake, just sloshing over to the other side, so to speak.

      Does anyone know if we have any interferometry available?

    • Let’s assume that the explosion was a VEI3 with a volume of 0.01km3 DRE. Lake Taal is some 200 km2 in area. Filling the hole left by the explosion with water would lower the water level in Lake Taal by 10 cm. The explosion may have been a few times larger. Calculation done, numbers not that big..

      The lake is about 5 meters above sea level: that is probably where that number of 5 meter drop came from – a misreading. The lake can drain in two ways, either filling a hole somewhere or enhanced outflow to the sea. The Pansipit river has an average flow rate of 15m3 per second. To drain 0.01km3 would take 10 days. So a water-filled hole in the lake seems more likely.

      Note that this does not require that water goes into the magma conduit. If underground magma has been evacuated, the ground underneath the lake will have subsided in response. That has the same effect as filling the hole directly with water, without the immediate risk of steam explosions.

      • Thanks for the explanation. A 25-50mm drop across an area >200km2 in 24 hours caught my attention but maybe I got the number of zeros wrong when I did the maths.

  10. Hi Folks, Long time lurker here. I have been following the developments over the last few days or so and i echo some of the questions been raised by Tayupo1086 and SteveR. Could i ask someone with with a more technical background provide an explanation (if explanation is not available then educated theory is perfectly accecptable) of what is happening. I propose the following questions:

    1: As the dike propogates where is it coming from and going to? Anything similar to the BardaB drop plots available. What is the estimated emplacement of maga and is this large/small etc.
    2: Are the cracks/fissures located around the volcano or to one side/location
    3: Water – Has the lake(s) levels dropped due to evaporation or has the water gone underground?
    4: The river – has it sropped due to the lake level dropping?

    Many thanks

    Richie (Dublin Ireland)

  11. Albert, I have written a guest post update about Taal. It is almost finished I will soon send it to your gmail.

  12. Been hunting for GPS data – I think that current data is only available with a paid subscription to “Philippine Active Geodetic Network” but not 100% sure about that.

    This is the latest public data I’ve found for station PTGY – Tagaytay City, Cavite

    • Hmm. Seems a paid subscription doesn’t get current data either because

      Philippine Active Geodetic Network – PAGeNet
      12 January at 23:49 ·

      PAGeNet Advisory

      To our valued subscribers:

      Our ISP, PLDT is currently experiencing network trouble. Unfortunately one of those affected is the PAGeNet services. We are closely coordinating and monitoring the situation with PLDT. We will post updates and work towards the immediate restoration of our services. We apologize for the inconvenience and thank you for your patience.

      PAGeNet Administrator

      So no data now for several days. Glad I didn’t pay money to find that out!

    • I did not expect to see a yearly signal in the up graph. It looks like it goes up 10mm a year and then back down 8 every year. Kind of like the DI events on Kilauea?

      • The actual data are the blue dots, the red line is generated and it is not always fitting, not sure what is the intention. Just by looking at the dots you probably wouldn’t see that periodicity.

  13. Last 24 hours of quakes detected by PHIVOLCS up to midnight local time (16:00 UTC/GMT)

    Green dots deeper than 30km

    • Time coded quakes >= 3.5 since event began

      Red – Previous 24 hours. Orange Previous 48 hours. Yellow Previous 7 days

      • This map gives the impression the quakes follow the logic line to extend the caldera lake and make it more round!

      • Taking that Lake Taal fills the old Taal Caldera, there seems to be a line of earthquakes running in a N/S line which would be close to the Csldera rim in the west should be. Could this be an indication of rim faulting?

        • Oh, that’s a point, or cap/roof/lid tilting as I doubt they always have to go like a piston, some may go like a trapdoor. In which case we should find out soonish.

    • 7 days all magnitudes

      Yellow 0 – 32km
      Green 33 – 69km
      Red 70 – 299km

  14. Is this a reawakening of a caldera ring fault, especially on the western side? If so will this activity start to unzip the eastern edge of the caldera. Is this heading to a situation of multiple small eruptions at various sites?

    • I copied the map from the Taal page on the Global Volcanism Program site
      https://volcano.si.edu/showreport.cfm?doi=10.5479/si.GVP.BGVN201102-273070

      It shows the fault intersection Taal is on.
      First thing I thought seeing the north south lined M3,5 plus quakes, that it might be an extension of the Marikina fault, but that looks not plausible seeing the map. But that line may be a hidden fault after all.

      It is a quite complex area regarding rifting, you need lots of data to see what is happening these days. Maybe there is an uplift in the river area driven bij a dyke intrusion. Or is it a fault moving by a rift event?

      [url=[/img][/url]

      • Some faults, SW-NE faults related to the Macolod Corridor are rupturing due to dike intrusion which is the way rifting usually goes. The rupturing is clear because it has a surface expression (all the cracks cutting roads and houses).

        Earthquakes are probably happening in other faults as well. If in the caldera fault too that would be open to speculation I guess.

  15. Anyone manage to find any new radar interferometry plots? My google-fu failed me and only found one up to 2011. With all these fissures it would be interesting to see what the actual movements are.,

  16. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Tokyo (VAAC) issued the following report:

    FVFE01 at 20:42 UTC, 15/01/20 from RJTD
    VA ADVISORY
    DTG: 20200115/2042Z
    VAAC: TOKYO
    VOLCANO: KLYUCHEVSKOY 300260
    PSN: N5603 E16039
    AREA: RUSSIA
    SUMMIT ELEV: 4754M
    ADVISORY NR: 2020/7
    INFO SOURCE: HIMAWARI-8 KBGS
    AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
    ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION AT 20200115/2026Z FL200 EXTD NE REPORTED
    OBS VA DTG: 15/2030Z
    OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FM SATELLITE DATA WIND FL200 230/12KT

    FCST VA CLD +6 HR: NOT AVBL
    FCST VA CLD +12 HR: NOT AVBL
    FCST VA CLD +18 HR: NOT AVBL
    RMK: WE WILL ISSUE FURTHER ADVISORY IF VA IS DETECTED

    • Translated text that goes with the tweet:
      Earthquake and epicenter distribution map near Taal Volcano M-T Figure, depth / time diagram. From 10th to 15th before 19:00 (local time). Created from the hypocenter list of the Philippine Volcanic Earthquake Research Institute. The magnitude of the quake as a whole is even smaller than yesterday. Earthquakes with shallow epicenters are decreasing.

  17. It would be nice if someone had made a map on which the fissures that have appeared are drawn in, so we could see what direction they take… And compare it to maps that have been drawn about the 1911 eruption. I Have not found something so far.

  18. TAAL VOLCANO BULLETIN: 16 January 2020 8:00 A.M.

    At 6:17 and 6:21 AM today, Taal Volcano erupted short-lived dark gray ash plumes 500 meters and 800 meters high, respectively, that dispersed ash southwest to west of the Main Crater. Activity in the past 24 hours has generally waned to weak emission of steam-laden plumes 700 meters high that dispersed ash to the southwest.

    The Philippine Seismic Network plotted a total of five hundred sixty-six (566) volcanic earthquakes since 1:00 PM, January 12, 2020. One hundred seventy-two (172) of these registered at magnitudes M1.2 – M4.1 and were felt at Intensities I – V. Since 5:00 AM on January 15, 2020 until 5:00 AM today, there were one-hundred three (103) volcanic earthquakes plotted, fourteen (14) of these registered at magnitudes M1.4 -M4.0 and were felt at Intensities I – III. Such intense seismic activity likely signifies continuous magmatic intrusion beneath the Taal edifice, which may lead to further eruptive activity.

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 4186 tonnes/day on 15 January 2020.

    Alert Level 4 still remains in effect over Taal Volcano. This means that hazardous explosive eruption is possible within hours to days. DOST-PHIVOLCS strongly reiterates total evacuation of Taal Volcano Island and high-risk areas as identified in the hazard maps within the 14-km radius from Taal Main Crater and along the Pansipit River Valley where fissuring has been observed. Residents around Taal Volcano are advised to guard against the effects of heavy and prolonged ashfall. Civil aviation authorities must advise pilots to avoid the airspace around Taal Volcano as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from the eruption column pose hazards to aircraft. DOST-PHIVOLCS is continually monitoring the eruption and will update all stakeholders of further developments.

    • Yesterday said:

      Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 1686 tonnes/day on 14 January 2020.

      Today said:

      Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 4186 tonnes/day on 15 January 2020.

  19. Noticed something not good:

    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 1686 tonnes/day on 14 January 2020.
    Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission was measured at an average of 4186 tonnes/day on 15 January 2020.

    That would indicate fresh material coming in

    • That is not a lot of SO2, if it was bad it would be a lot more than that.

    • It may be a side effect of the magma chamber deflating, as it feeds the intrusion to the southwest and drops pressure at the summit. During the first month of Leilani eruption the summit of Kilauea emitted way more SO2 than when it had a lava lake.

      It also must mean that magma is close to the surface, which is not the same as rising.

  20. Does anyone happen to know the fate of the ponies used in the tourist video on Taal volcano when they evacuated?

  21. I did mention this to another post way up the line. One way to make sense of the data is that the caldera roof is operating like a trapdoor rather than a piston and the magma is lifting one side. So the river exit under the current activity is rising and (as Albert said) the water sloshing to the other side (which would be nice to know). In that case the changes in elevations around the edifice would be useful. The whole thing looks quite worrying to me, I must say. This volcano is capable of quite damaging eruptions.

  22. Some people walked to the crater of Taal. I there are no more people coming up with the same idea but at least they made a video:

    facebook.com/RTXinnovations.ph/videos/619290038845593/

    Crater looks mostly dry which I guess must be good.

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