Volcano World Cup 2018: FINAL

So now we have come to the final of the 2018 Volcano World Cup which will be Peru against Iceland. Who you want to be crowned volcano world champions is up to you.

Will the champions be the explosive stratovolcanoes of southern Peru, or will it be the basaltic volcanoes of Iceland (some of which lie under a glacier)? The choice is yours.

 

Peru vs Iceland

PERU

Ubinas in eruption. SOURCE: www.peruadventurestours.com

So for this final matchup, Ubinas will represent Peru to go up against Iceland. A stratovolcano with steep sided caldera walls and an active inner crater. Ubinas is Peru’s most active volcano with eruptions dating back to the 16th century right up to 2017. Activity typically consists of minor to moderate explosions.

ICELAND

Hekla post eruption, southern Iceland. SOURCE: volcano.oregonstate.edu/

For Iceland I choose Hekla for the final, one of Iceland’s most active volcanoes. Historical eruptions of Hekla date back to the 1100s and has been known to perform silicic explosive eruptions as well as basaltic eruptions through time. Hekla is a stratovolcano which has produced basaltic-andesites. The Vatnafjoll fissure system lies to the southeast of Hekla and is part of the Hekla-Vatnafjoll volcanic system. Last eruption of Hekla occurred in 2000.

 

Poll will close on the 17th July.

 

Meanwhile, for you fans of football out there I hope you enjoy the final between France and Croatia in the REAL World Cup and good luck to both teams.

RENÉ GOAD

141 thoughts on “Volcano World Cup 2018: FINAL

  1. Peru is a surprise contender actually, I would have expected Russia to be competing with Iceland, especially with the klyuchevskaya group, and Kamchatka in general…

    As I said before, whatever team goes against Iceland has about a snowman-in-hells chance of winning, and now they have to deal with hekla… 😉

    • Kamchatka is underrated, I presume from all those years behind Stalin and his successors Iron curtain, a sort of Western media blackout.

  2. Thanks for the World Cup Series in Volcano Cafe! Funny how Iceland always wins on here… (chuckle).

    On another note, regarding seismicity around volcanoes, Surrey, UK, is not to be outdone! Just down the road from my home sensors are being set up:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/surrey-earthquakes-oil-gas-drilling-fossil-fuels-dorking-explosions-keith-taylor-a8446541.html

    I’ve never experienced an earthquake, though one of these generated a double ‘boom’ I heard, causing me to think: “Was that an earthquake?” Well, turns out it was, although my collection of glass mice stayed unrattled in the cabinet beside me.

    • You’ll see that the article centres on fracking. So far as I know, apart from a few test drills, no fracking has occurred. Local oil says there’s no need as there’s enough pressure down there for extraction – that so far has not even started.

      • The BGS contacted the Oil & Gas Authority after an earthquake a few days prior to the 5 July one who said that while the equipment was on site, no flow testing had been carried out.

        http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/research/SurreyEarthquakes2018.html

        There is a map at the bottom of that page which shows three earthquakes preceding the 3.0 in a linear pattern suggesting a fault twitching. Probably not enough to confirm a fault.

        • I’m inclined to it being a fault. It’ll be interesting what the increased instrument sensitivity will show.

          • Wastewater injection was going on at Broadbridge however, and Angus have been breaking all the rules with unconventional oil extraction at Brockham. 2 more small quakes yesterday at 1km depth makes me think that local activity are very likely culprits (I also live here)

    • every earthquake is surprisingly different, except, i imagine, Hawaii in Volcano Villiage which is having hundreds. i’ve been in earthquakes which sounded like invisible mice racing across the floor and others which arrived with a bang like a moose hit the house.. (sometimes they hit the house when they nestle in during the winter snow storms and a 2,000 pound bull moose can pack a wallop. Other eq’s arrive with a tinkling of chimes i have and others feel like a huge hand moving a rug under You. Always attention grabbing.

      • During the thousands of aftershocks commencing after the M7.1 quake in Darfield Christchurch in 2010 (epicentre about 30km from where I live), that sequence including several large shocks greater than M6 (one of which killed about 180 people), many dozens M5-6, and thousands of shakes less than M5, we got pretty good at seat of pants guesses. You could guess magnitude from duration, location from the direction of motion, distance and/or depth by how sharp and hard the shaking was – but also you’d often be able to hear and feel the P wave a second or more before the S wave hit – then back-calculate the distance. It was a guessing game – “hmmm, that seemed to come from the west, heard a rumble and creak about 5 seconds before it hit – motion was quite rolling – that was probably an aftershock on the fault at Darfield rather than a smaller quake closer. We got quite good at it. We would check the guesses as data was updated on the GNS science site. Sometimes GNS got it wrong too – they used an automated system which sometimes got tricked and miscalculated location etc – we’d be saying “no it wasn’t” – verified later when a seismologist had reviewed the data and updated the website.
        This went on for a couple of years before tapering off, it’s almost back to normal background level now.
        The largest magnitude I’ve felt was the M7.8 “Kaikoura” quake in 2016, the epicentre was about 90km from home. Distance was enough and the direction most of the shaking energy dissipated meant that we had no damage at all, could tell that it was reasonably distant, it felt like being on small boat abeam to the sea, getting belted by breaking waves. This went on for about a minute and a half – extremely unpleasant. My fear was mainly along the lines of “whoa – that’s huge – and wherever that is, they’re getting pummeled”. They were – but fortunately not in heavily populated areas.

        • The biggest ‘earthquake’ I have ever felt was last year when me and the rest of my chemistry class had to stand around an oxyhydrogen balloon being set off. Obviously it is insignificant compared to even a small real quake but you could feel it in the ground…

          I live in a place where big quakes are very few and far between so il probably never actually feel a real one.

          • I just got shaken by a quake a couple of minutes ago. I’m a bit out of practice with my seat of the pants seismometer. My guess was a shallow M3.8 at about 10km distance, NE of here (or SW).
            From automated / preliminary data, it was M4, 11.2 km deep and 11.4km distance NE of here.
            I’m a bit out of practice – but maybe I haven’t lost my touch. A bit like riding a bicycle.
            A M4 like that, doesn’t really bother me much. Wobbly and things rattling on shelves for perhaps 5 seconds.
            So far almost 8,000 people have filled out “felt” reports at GNS. 5 years ago with a quake only that size – few would have bothered (not when they’re happening like that every hour).

    • See previous post for a picture. It is the largest landslide in Iceland since Askja 2014.

  3. The other things from Iceland was that it was made clear from the IMO that Oraefajokull is preparing itself for an eruption and inflating at a similar rate of that of Eyjafjallajokull prior to its eruption.

    With this in mind and knowing that Oraefajokull erupted historically twice (one VEI4 and one VEI5-6), I am estimating a time of frame until the eruption between 3 months and 10 years – most likely a few years of wait.

      • Dunno. But I do know that the vent at Fimmvörðuháls looked like a blow torch before a finger of magma shot over to the main vent and started the show.

      • It had intrusive events in 1994, 1999 and early 2009, then started getting twitchy that summer, full build-up started in December, accelerated in early March, with a rather sudden onset of eruption on the 20th (unrest picked up again just before the main summit eruption started).

  4. Hi All, I’m a Longtime Lurker, and fellow Australian as is Turtlebirdman, I worked with the “RACV”( for the rest of Australians, an automotive rescue system)(RACT for turtlebirdman), and I have litterally dragged a car out of the bottom of a Volcano, Mount Rouse, (Penshurst, Vic.) Turtlebirdman, you know the place. I felt the june 19, 2012 earthquake in Bendigo, 180km from source, I had my head on my ex wifes lap on the couch, I thought she was scrubbing our sons ipad screen and she thought I was suffering from restless legs, was quite obvious.

    First time comments need approval and this normally gives a delay (typically a few hours). Welcome! Further comments should appear without delay

  5. I know there is still a day left in the vote, but unless a bunch of fans from Peru see this right now, I think the contest has been very well decided… A snowmans chance in hell indeed, except you can build snowmen in hell if you build one at the top of hekla 🙂

    Also another quake happened about 2 hours ago, and the surge has just started now. The whole area all around pu’u 8 is glowing, including to the left/south side again. Maybe those flows are actually spatter fed flows caused by a temporary but significant increase in the height of the fountain? Most of these seem to happen at night when the glow is too extensive to see the vent on the webcam so I dont know if this has been confirmed or not.
    If they are caused by lava in the vent overflowing directly instead, then that might indicate the upper channel is getting more constricted and lava could start permanently flowing in other directions soon, which would be good news for those who want Pohoiki to survive, but it could flow over a lot more inhabited land instead.

    • USGS have said that the flow from fissure 8 had become more intermittent over the last 48hrs so maybe this part of the eruption is soon to be ending. That said it may just be a lull, we will know the end when we see it 🙂

      Also they have just said when asked on FaceBook about how far the crater pit floor is from the water table that is ~100m or so . It kind of points to why they were comfortable doing a 2 month risk assessment/forecast with Don Swanson saying ask me again in 2 months and I may have a different assessment at that point of potential risks.

      • So the bottom is still 100 meters above the water table? It looks lower than that on the picture, must be a perspective thing.

        I did read a post that for most of the time there was a deep caldera (~1500-1790) that it was usually above the water table though, so the current situation only removes the option of a phreatomagmatic eruption, but not the risk of lava fountain fallout over inhabited areas to the north.

  6. Ball Girl. It’s not just that she literally ran up a wall, but she got the timing perfect. If the out fielder had done that, it would have been an out. Since she got it, it was still just a foul ball.

  7. New archeological research forces historians to reconsider the story of Iceland’s settlement

    (New research suggests the first people arrived as much as 100 years earlier.)

    “The nature of these first settlements remains a mystery, but Bjarni believes they were fishing and hunting camps, rather than permanent settlements. “Such camps were common in Scandinavia,” he points out. Local chiefs would send out teams of workers to establish camps in remote uninhabited areas during summer, where they hunted, fished and produced various goods. The camp in Stöðvarfjörður could have been used to fish, hunt seabirds and seals, as well as to produce oil from whale blubber and iron from bog ore. Most Viking era iron was smelted from bog iron”

    “The very name of the farm Stöð and the fjord Stöðvarfjörður seem to support this theory: Stöð translates as camp, station or base.”

    • Makes complete sense. You don’t settle terra incognito: you explore first and bring the family later. The vikings themselves also mention previous settlement by Irish monks.

      • There are a few researchers who note that some Galic place names and words have made it into the Icelandic language.


        That also fits with the L’Anse aux Meadows viking encampment. If it weren’t for the run-ins with the skrælingjar, they might have set up a new settlement.

        The Iroquois were probably a bit more competitive than the Thule. (Mohawk, Onondaga, Oneida, Cayuga, and Seneca confederation) The Mohawk were particularly militant. “For hundreds of years, they guarded the Iroquois Confederation against invasion from that direction by tribes from the New England and lower New York areas.”

  8. Latest Update from HVO:
    The ocean entry area / flow front is a staggering 6km wide and has several small point where lava enters the ocean. The main flow is west of kapoho crater and continues to expand its ocean entry area.

    One sentence caught my eye: “Volcanic gas emissions remain very high and continue to increase.” The overall output volume has declined a bit over the last week or so or is fluctuating with the summit explosions. I wonder why the gas output is continuously increasing? Could mean new magma arriving, but I don’t see any other indications of that?

  9. The missing data points on the Kilauea GPS’s have now been added. It looks like it was a plotting issue rather than missing data. HV046 is still lost, though, either out of alignment with the receiver or falling of the cliff – the latter seems more more likely as it did show increased movement just before it went off-line. CRIM-UWEV shows a restart of the contraction (albeit still small) after a period of stability.

    • USGS Volcanoes We lost the telemetry link to VO46 a couple of days ago. We’re not sure why that is (it didn’t fall in — it’s not that close to the pit). Might be a power failure of some kind. We haven’t had the time to visit, but hope to assess the problem in the next few days.
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      • The station was lost shortly after it first jumped down during an earthquake. See the plot below: it moved downward smoothly before, without a discernible quake effect (showing no fault nearby), but on the 12th it suddenly did respond to the daily quake, suggesting a fault had activated behind the instrument. After this, the downward motion accelerated (steeper slope of the line), and the time that it was lost coincided precisely with the next earthquake.

        There is final measurement: a single point below the curve at the end. The south caldera instrument also jumped down at this time (as it always does) and it too shows a single point in between the ‘before’ and ‘after’ curve. This shows that the collapse occurred during the time a measurement was taken. That doesn’t always happen: in the week from the 10th to the 16th, this was the only quake where that was seen. I don’t know how often the GPS takes a measurement, but I assume it is once every 10 or 30 sec or so.

        So we know that HV046 had its second jump downward at the exact time it went off-line. I don’t often disagree with HVO, but a collapse-related failure seems much more plausible than a power failure. ‘Collapse related’ means that I don’t know what happened .. it could be loss of alignment with the receiver, or loss of a line of sight. But not a random failure

        • USGS Volcanoes
          🌋
          ‏Verified account @USGSVolcanoes

          For those of you asking about the VO46 GPS feed on the HVO website, we can confirm that the station has kicked the bucket, shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. VO46 is an ex-GPS. 😢
          3:38 PM – 17 Jul 2018

          • Glad to see they are keeping their sense of humour. Without telling us what actually happened. Was it a burial or a cremation?

  10. Now that we have new data from the GPS from HVO I find very interesting how GPS very close to each other are picking up what probably are slightly different processes affecting them that give different signals. This four GPS are on the same area close to the south caldera rim, PUHI is a little farther away to the southeast, close to the Puhimau Crater in the uppermost part of the ERZ:

    The vertical movement is maybe the most direct way of measuring deflation, OUTL and PUHI seem to be picking up a faster deflation since very recently while CRIM has slowed down which is strange when it’s located closer to the collapsing area than the other two. But what really intrigues me is why is OUTL moving towards the east, it makes perfect sense it would jump to the southeast with what very probably was the 6.9 earthquake as it is seen in the other GPS too, but then PUHI, HOVL, and CRIM started moving to the northwest towards Halema’uma’u as the collapse progressed while OUTL decided to move also north but to the east and not only that but also in a very strange way that in the graph looks like a “staircase”, I cant find an explanation for this , it could have something to do with it being the closest one to the south caldera magma reservoir or maybe not. Of course the GPS at the summit have dropped more than the ones at the east rift, in the case of PUHI 0.5 m, and HOVL was too close to the action and was swallowed up by the new crater, I think that 2-3 GPS have already been lost during this event and more could be in danger.

    • I wouldnt have expected this but even HVO itself might be in danger if this keeps going on much longer. The crater is steep on that side so if a bigger quake happens at some point there could be a big debris avalanche. This happened in the 1980s at fernandina after a similar caldera collapse and it actually took out a sizable part of the inner caldera including its lake.

      I guess that all depends on whether there is actually a deep crater there at all next time there is a big quake though, as 20 years is more than enough time for the new caldera to fill completely if another post-1790 period starts up again. There have been a lot of quakes over 20 km deep at the deep conduit far under Pahala in the last few weeks and apparently some people in the kau district have actually reported feeling them even from that depth, so I think this still very far from over.

      This is the quakes there for the past month:

      Also a possible explanation for the northeast movement of OUTL is maybe that it reflects the total ground deflation of the south caldera magma body. I think this is where a relatively shallow intrusion happened in 2015 after the first lava lake overflows. It probably didn’t erupt because the lake was still lower than the land around that area and there wasn’t enough pressure but if that happened then that could be an interesting location in the future. It might have been a failed eruption on the seismic southwest rift and failed eruptions on kilauea usually become actual eruptions eventually. Maybe the south caldera magma body extends a bit further south than previously thought and is partly under the southwest rift in that area?

      • If the 1974 vents are considered to be where the Seismic SRWZ starts then that is not very far away from where the south caldera magma body is thought to be located and given how big past caldera collapses have been (the combination of 1500 and 1790 in the current caldera) then it could very well reach the 1974 fissures area, maybe not the main magma body but a small extension like the one that originated Keanakakoi crater, a smaller reservoir that directly links with the bigger one.

        I think the worst case scenario for the aftermath of this eruption would be a crater lake something that has been observed historically at similar volcanoes to Kilauea (Karthala, Fernandina).

        • With 1974 vents I was just referring to the ones that opened in december in the seismic SRWZ not the ones that opened in Keanakakoi. Just in case since I forgot to specify.

        • According to a paper I read on it, the 1790 summit eruption was basically a high fountain underwater, something like a bigger version of 1959, or maybe like the initial formation of surtsey before it settled down.
          There was at least one sizable eruption in the OUTL area in 1790 too, it was on a caldera ring fault just a bit north of the December 1974 fissures.

          I would also consider the 1974 vents at keanakako’i to be related to the seismic southwest rift as well, they are aligned pretty much in the same direction and the magma body seems to orient in the same direction as the southwest rift too despite currently feeding into and being closer to the east rift. I have a theory that even the 1959 eruption might have been part of this trend. Initially that eruption was small and probably fed from the halemaumau system but I have a hard time seeing the really high fountains being the result of a shallow radial intrusion from below halemaumau when that eruption could have just erupted in halemaumau instead. The magma in December 1974 was also very mafic too just like the 1959 lava. 1974 lava at keanakako’i was a lot more evolved (probably from 1877) but there is a magma body there so that would absorb a primitive magma intrusion and erupt the older stuff first.
          It is interesting that in 1971, 1974 and 1982 there were two eruptions at the summit a few months apart in the same year, one was on the halemaumau system while the other one was near keanakako’i. This could indicate that these are actually fairly separate but connected at depth fand have slightly diverging systems, and if you follow them northeast they both join at kilauea iki almost exactly where the main 1959 vent is…

          • I consider the vents at Keanakakoi to belong to the summit, the magma bodies of Kenakakoi and of the south caldera rim are very close and probably partly merged in a way that they are more like just one storage, both the ERZ and Seismic SWRZ intrusions originate from here but where the 1974 vents are it hasnt intruded any of the two yet, but it is actually all part of the same system so in the end it will be connected.

            There is certainly something odd about Kilauea Iki, not just why is it there but also all eruptions have happened in what I think were important changes in the activity of Kilauea, 1959 was the start of the intense phase of ERZ activity with a large number of small eruptions and then the large sustained ones, 1868 wasnt as important as the other two but it did happen in an interesting moment with the Ka’u earthquake and followed by a collapse of Halema’uma’u and 1832 was a collapse of Halema’uma’u and now here I might be mistaken but wasnt then when an intrusion to the ERZ and the sequence of events leading to 1840 started?

          • I would consider the keanakako’i area to be part of the summit area too but I think it is connected to the rifts more than to halemaumau. The collapse event at the summit took out the shallow system under halemaumau pretty much immediately but the area where keanakako’i is only started subsiding once a ring fault formed and a lot less magma seems to have left in total as a new pit hasn’t formed there despite our early speculations. That part of the ring fault is an area that I think will see at least one eruption in the next 10 years, possibly a major eruption if halemaumau has been crippled by this.

            Kilauea iki first historically erupted in 1868 but the 1832 eruption sent lava into it and there was lava of unknown but post 1790 age in it when the first map of the summit was made in the 1820s. One thing I did read is that the 1959 fissure was the same as the 1868 fissure, so maybe the initial eruption was basically a repeat of that event except after a few days a lot of new magma got into the system and that is when the eruption really took off. That magma was the very primitive lava that was deep sourced so it is unlikely to have come from halemaumau and might have come up through the northern end of the keanakako’i area. Whatever happened then was a major turning point as 1959 lead to the 1960 eruption, and that event completely opening up the rift really started this entire active period.

          • The fissures of 1832, 1868 and 1959 are very close to each other so maybe the same one, but the first ones are hard to find a location. The strange thing is that unlike the other rift zones the fissures and cracks are very localized only to the crater and Byron’s ledge, it is difficult so to relate it to any of the other structures, the pit crater could be an evidence towards being not part of the volcanic SWRZ as the pirt crater forming reservoirs of the ERZ are thought to be 3 km deep and the volcanic SWRZ is more shallow than that, thought I think the 1924 Halema’uma’u collapse and the one at Pu’u’o’o were from vey shallow, less than 1 km?, reservoirs, so Kilauea Iki could be another exception.

          • Well the magma chambers that drained to form makaopuhi and napau were probably above the main area where shallow dikes travel horizontally (as you said about 3 km), because they would have to form from magma draining out from under somewhere. Both of them could be associated with magma storage under kane nui o hamo, and maybe pu’u o’o and mauna ulu (which have active shallow systems) are going to be truncated by big pits in a few hundred or less years. They could even form in the next year or so as magma drains out of the rift more than it is now, leading to draining of the east rift. I think that this last few months has shown this is a little understood process though and the entire caldera has just dropped down instead.

            For kilauea iki to exist there must have been a magma reservoir there, and because eruptions have happened there recently it must still be there. It is also about the same size as makaopuhi and napau which might have been relatively deep set. However halemaumau is now the biggest of all of the pit craters and it is formed from shallow collapse, and as kilauea iki is also at the summit while makaopuhi and napau are in the middle east rift, so maybe kilauea iki is a relatively shallow collapse. It was most likely the aila’au eruption magma chamber that collapsed when the summit drained out and formed the caldera.
            Kilauea iki and keanakako’i, or at least the spots where the pits are now, both subsided when the caldera originally formed and this probably indicates a level of connection between them, and the magma chamber orientation already indicates the seismic southwest rift is connected with the keanakako’i area so this is going to be interesting to observe in the future.

            That entire line of vents between kilauea iki and the kamakaia hills seems to have formed only as a real thing in the last 700 years or so and most of it probably post-dates the caldera, meaning it has yet to truly experience a high magma stand. The seismic southwest rift might even hijack the east rift in this phase and eruptions could happen a lot more often there this century while the east rift is entirely inactive for a while.
            I almost want the current eruption to just finish already so it can be named and we can see the new features there, as well as observe the next step, which is likely to be a lot more visually impressive than a glowing hole in the ground that overflows occasionally… 😉

          • Also I think the reason for cracks around kilauea iki being localized is because the aila’au shield has buried a lot of them and it hasnt been long enough for most of them to reform yet.

          • The pit crater formation process has never been fully understood, it has never been observed historically in Kilauea and outside of Kilauea the only case I know of is Karthala when during the 1918 NE rift eruption a new crater formed at the central caldera and also a smaller crater that was still inside the boundary of the old calderas, so maybe the closest analogue but still with some differences. The reason why no pit craters have formed is probably related to why the south caldera reservoir hasnt collapsed either, the collapse has only really affected the shallow Halema’uma’u reservoir and all the deeper magma storage is still intact, this could change depending of how long the eruptioin lasts, the total sum of the volumes of the south caldera magma bodgy and the reservoirs of the ERZ would probably represent the maximum volume this eruption can still produce from now on and the maximum duration it will still last, my estimation of the volume of the ERZ reservoirs that currently exist based on how much ERZ magma has been erupted in Leilani and the former reservoirs that probably existed at Napau and Makaopuhi is of 0.4-0.5 km³ I dont know how big the south caldera magma body is but it either doesnt fall short of that number or it surpasses it. With the current eruption rate of 100 m³/s it would take 55 days to erupt my estimation for the ERZ magma and if we count the remaining summit magma it probably at least doubles. But it can end anytime from here to then, the rate can also vary. In the case it was to end now then I dont think it would be the start of a new phase similar to 1790-1840, a rebound of summit activity maybe could happen but it would be much smaller and I dont think would be able to fill the new crater to the level of Halema’uma’u before the 2018 eruption and this is because the south caldera magma body which usually is the starting point of ERZ intrusions is pretty much intact right now and the ERZ reservoirs that must also play a role in magma transport havent drained much.

            About the location of pit craters I am more of a partidary of thinking that they form in intersections of Koae faults with the main intrusion path that comes from the summit.

            At Alae and Aloi it was visible how these pit craters tend to form where the fractures associated to fissure eruptiions cut the Pu’u’o’o-summit conduit. This was just an idea I wanted to test if pit craters formed during this eruption. Pit craters forming during this event was based on how 1790 probably caused the last array of craters to form as there is no other high rate voluminous eruption happening during the 18th century and they look at least that recent.

            This is a map I created and showed here in an earlier post. Vents in red, 1961-1983 intrusions in orange, pit craters in brown and cracks in gray. It shows how Kamakaia hills are actually not aligned with the seismic SRWZ and seem instead to have erupted from the Kalanaokuaiki Fault, it probably is more recent than the Seismic SRWZ and its activity could become higher in future centuries as the Volcanic SRWZ activity ceases. The intrusions into Koae seem to originate from both rift zones and if my idea for the pit craters is correct then they originate from small reservoirs, maybe one of those responsible for the Kamakaia Hills andesites.

          • It is an interesting correlation that most of the pit craters seem to have formed on pre-existing faults. I think napau might be an exception though as it looks like it is too far downrift to be connected to that directly, but its a bit hard to tell now with a lot of the faults being buried.

            I dont think really any of the magma in this eruption has come from under the east rift directly, there has been almost no subsidence at makaopuhi or napau, and even at pu’u o’o there has only been about 50 cm of delation, but there has been a very obvious and large scale collapse at the summit. Because of the 30 years of continuous connection between pu’u o’o and the summit there is no real difference between the magma at pu’u o’o and what was in the lava lake except the magma on the rift has much less CO2 because that escapes from the summit before erupting. This eruption by now has gone on for more than long enough to have magma that was directly in the summit reservoir erupting now, in 1960 this took a bit over 2 weeks I think, in this eruption it probably happened about a month into the eruption when there were reports of high temperature lava erupting.
            One of the ring faults in the new caldera actually goes exactly right over the top of the keanakako’i/south caldera reservoir, and with the shallow one at halemaumau probably completely destroyed now and the conduit being effectively completely sealed (summit SO2 is at pre-2008 levels now) it is actually the south caldera reservoir that could take the brunt of the new magma pulse that is on its way, leading to potentially a lot of large eruptions between kilauea iki and keanakako’i, and possibly down the southwest rift at later points.

            I made this to show, its not really scaled well though but you get the idea.

            The decline after 1840 was probably just as much because of mauna loa also waking up at that time and captured the majority of the hotspot, and that combined with a deep intrusion lead to the end of that high activity. Currently there is no evidence of mauna loa actually waking up, it will likely erupt in the next 10 years but it has not taken dominance over the hotspot so this next eruption is very likely to be a repeat of the 1984 eruption and similarly followed by a long dormancy again.
            I saw something that said the amount of magma that has moved into mauna loa since its last eruption is about 0.4 km3. That is equivalent to about 0.01 km3 per year over that time on average. Kilauea in 2014 (it was not inflating at that point) was erupting about 6 m3 per second to the flow that made it to Pahoa, which is about 0.19 km3 per year, or 19 times the average supply rate of mauna loa since 1984.
            The deep quakes are very definitely going towards kilauea (you can see it just by looking at the swarm) so kilauea is far from done with its dominance of the hotspot and hence it is also going to recover from this event surprisingly quickly. As an observation it seems like eruptions after a caldera formation on kilauea are generally pretty big and violent and often happen very quickly after the caldera formed. This sort of activity has only happened in 1959 during historical time but seems to almost be the typical sort of activity after a caldera collapse. This actually might indicate that most collapses on kilauea cause a surge in supply rate and it is just hidden because once it ends the caldera is still likely to be not entirely filled and things slow down a lot afterwards.

          • HVO said the lava temperature from the fissures matched better that of ERZ magma. As the ERZ loses magma to the eruption summit magma replenishes it and that would explain why it hasn’t collapsed yet.

            After 1500 the caldera maybe partially filled very fast since flank eruptions at the ERZ started around 1600 or maybe before and that probably means the caldera must have filled to a certain point to allow that and maybe to have reconstructed the summit storage.

          • When exactly did they say this is east rift magma and not summit magma? As I said in the above comment there is likely to be no real difference, and I doubt the volume of the active conduit in the east rift is as high as the amount of lava erupted so far anyway.

          • They did say and a couple of times throughout the eruption in updates and conference that the lava from the eruption is colder than the one at Halema’uma’u and that it resembles more the temperature measured at Pu’u’o’o. I dont think they have said anything about this in the last two? weeks, I dont remember exactly when was the last time, so things may have changed by now.

          • I have watched pretty much all of those, and the only time I remember seeing anything on the topic of lava temperature was when they reported that the lava temperature was one of the highest measured in Hawaii in recorded history and ‘basically right from the mantle’. This was also shortly after a significant increase in SO2 emissions that has so far not stopped and is apparently the highest value ever recorded in historical time according to the last eruption conference yesterday (I’m assuming this is Hawaii only but they didn’t say)
            That increase in SO2 and the hot lava was almost 1.5 months ago now at some point in early June, and teally the only way it is going to have such a high temperature and SO2 content is if this is summit magma that was in the mantle within the past few years and has made it to the eruption through the conduit. They are probably calling this pu’u o’o magma because it is actually the same stuff, but the pu’u o’o lava was pretty much exactly the same as the lava in the lava lake except the summit lava had more gas in it as I said in the last comment.

  11. The Kilauea summit cam image (from Jaggar) has been incredibly blocky and low quality for me the last few days. Is this the same for everyone?

  12. HIS survival youtube video is a whole new angle on Fissure 8
    youtube.com/watch?v=jYotS6WA5Vk
    I am about 4 mins in, had to post this.

    • It was either at the edge of the flow or very close offshore from what I can see in the image: http://www.bigislandvideonews.com/2018/07/16/huge-explosion-at-lava-ocean-entry-injuries-reported/

      The explosion looks terrifying thats for sure, way bigger than any other that I have seen in the videos from the lava delta. Maybe the new lava channel is transporting lava at a very high rate into the ocean and into a single spot? something I dont think has happened before for long periods of time.

      • Someone is in a world of shit. USCG has a standing prohibition on approaches closer than 300 meters without explicit permission of USCG.

        “Per Captain, Lava Boat arrived offshore Pohoiki Lava entry site appox. 500 yds. offshore then proceeded to get closer until approx. 200 yds. offshore.”

        Thats 182 meters… plus he got someone hurt in the process.

        “…DLNR said, adding that “a 20 year old woman has major leg trauma. The other passengers suffered burns and scrapes.”

        Despite what any indemnity clause might state, with the boats captain operating in clear violation of US Coast Guard rules and regulations… I think the lawyers would be swarming the victims.

    • It was on the edge of the ocean entry:

      Video from Ikaika Marzo’s boat:
      https://www.facebook.com/ikaika.marzo/videos/1887564864629374/

      and comment from USGS:

      “USGS Volcanoes shared a post.
      1 hr ·
      When a lava flow enters the ocean, water is rapidly heated and vaporized, resulting in violent steam explosions. These “littoral explosions” at the ocean entry are a serious volcanic hazard.

      See our slide show at the bottom of our Ocean Entry Hazards webpage to learn more about various dangerous conditions where lava meets the sea. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observ…/…/hawaii_ocean_entry.html

      #volcanoes #volcanichazards #oceanentry #lava #littoralexplosion #tephrajet #hvo #Kilauea #LERZ #KilaueaEruption

      Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency updated their status.
      1 hr ·
      Early Monday morning, 23 passengers on a lava tour boat were injured when an explosion at the ocean entry
      hurled lava bombs and debris onto their boat. Of the injured, 4 were taken by ambulance, one seriously injured with a fractured femur. Most of the injured passengers had superficial injuries and were treated on arrival at Wailoa Harbor in Hilo.
      A basketball-sized lava bomb punctured the vessel’s roof, and explosion debris littered the floor of the boat.”

      Apparently Civil Defense recently lowered the exclusion zone distance and the boat was outside the exclusion zone.

      • Civil Defense can’t over-ride USCG… they own the waters. Per their broadcasts, explicit permission has to be granted by the USCG before incursion. (after all, they are the ones that have to come get you if you wind up a world of shit.) I’m not sure what the local broadcastify scanner is monitoring, but it sounded like VHF Ch 16.. which makes sense. That’s VHF bridge to bridge. (calling and distress)

      • Now, I’m not fond of Lawyers… but if there are any out there looking into this, here is a page of contact information for the applicable USCG district. Tell your Para-legal “your welcome” from me. These are the ones who can tell you what standing guidelines were in effect at the time of the incident and may help you in arguing the “hazarding of a vessel and its passengers” angle. I am reasonably certain that if you inquire, that vessel did not have the requisite permission to violate the USCG mandated exclusion zone.

        https://www.pacificarea.uscg.mil/Our-Organization/District-14/

        What is it going to take, a full time cutter stationed just offshore to promptly arrest violators who are endangering their passengers? USCG snipers are pretty good at taking out engines on fleeing vessels when needed. Failing that, they can track you all the way back to port. I know their radar systems, it’s a simple task and WILL stand up in court.

        (our radar track data was routinely used in prosecuting aircraft traffickers)

        • Psst…

          From; LOCAL NOTICE TO MARINERS
          July 11, 2018
          ISSUED BY:
          Commander (dpw)
          Fourteenth Coast Guard District

          “A safety zone is being enforced for the Kilauea Volcano lava flow ocean entry on the Southeast side of the Big Island, Hawaii, near the
          Mackenzie State Park lower Puna region. The permanent safety zone was established on May 11, 2018, and encompasses all waters extending 300 meters (984 feet) in all directions around all entry points of lava into the ocean. The entry points of the lava vary, and the zone will vary accordingly”

          And by his own statement… he was 200 yards away. Had Mr. badass “Captain” had been following standing rules and regulations, no one would have been injured… at least not to the level of injury that occurred.

          Link to the applicable Local Notice to Mariners.
          https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/pdf/lnms/lnm14282018.pdf

          And the main list of standing Local Notice to Mariners.
          https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/?pageName=lnmDistrict&region=14

          This is especially grievous in that he was operating a vessel for hire. He is LEGALLY required to be in compliance with standing safety protocols and procedures. Why he is not in jail is beyond me.

        • Yeah, my opinion is a bit rough, but the passengers on that vessel entrusted the “captain” with their safety.

          Irresponsible behavior has NO EXCUSE. At the very least, the canopy should be repaired and the vessel sold to cover the passengers medical bills… along with the rest of the “company.” Insurance you say? What morosely incompetent insurance company would cover a company that clearly operated in VIOLATION of USCG safety mandates?

    • There is a video on Ikaika’s facebook showing the explosion happening. I haven’t been the best at judging the size of things in this eruption, but given how far away they were (in front of the dying Kapoho ocean entry ~3 km away) the explosion must have thrown glowing lava at least 300 meters into the air. If it wasn’t for all the footage showing it as an ocean entry you would more likely mistake it as an actual submarine eruption on the coastline, I am honestly surprised no one died…

      Explosions like that only tend to happen when the flow becomes channelized at the ocean. My guess is that was actually what they were doing when the explosion happened, seeing whether the channel was at the ocean yet.
      If this keeps up then it could create a large littoral cone like the nanawale hills on the 1840 ocean entry.

      • i’m surprised the boat didn’t sink…… in shark infested waters….. They were really blessed that it didn’t sink from the bomb or less bouincy (sp) of the water…. and when i watch Ikaika’s feed i always thought the other boat was going too close but what do i know\\\ and that explosion was SO big anyone in the surrounding water could have been hit and think of lightening in an aluminum boat… ((motsfo runs amok))

        • Any sharks around there will be dead. The ocean in that area is as uninhabitable as the inside of a running kettle…

      • It’s the same mindset that caused the Costa Concordia incident. “Safety rules don’t apply to me.”

        Unfortunately, it will take that level of loss of life before anyone lifts a finger.

        Remember, by his own statement he was 200 yards away. (182 meters) and the USCG exclusion zone was 300 meters. (They own the waters around the State)

        Yeah, it pisses me off. His ego nearly got people killed. The first axiom of surviving a volcano is “Don’t be there.” Those people placed faith in him and paid for his alleged expertise in that he would ensure their safety in a perilous situation. In my opinion, that is flat out FRAUD.

        1) He didn’t care to know about the threat.
        2) He didn’t care to follow the guidelines of the cognizant authorities and ignored the USCG notice to mariners. If the USCG does not prosecute this guy, then they are culpable.

        And no, it was not an “act of God.” There was a KNOWN hazard, an appropriate warning was issued in the advisory, HE VIOLATED it, and people were injured DUE TO HIS ACTIONS as “captain” of the vessel.

        In the future, anyone hiring one of these yahoos is courting death at the hands of a vapid idiot that is only after their money.

  13. New quake at Kilauea. On the live video, it starts at 11:42:35 with a lot of rock falls. The video is indeed at much lower resolution than before.

    • It seems to be from the southeastern group of earthquakes. Now there are three groups of magnitude 5 quakes, forming a triangle around the former Halema’uma’u and I think a progression towards the southern ones is starting to become visible.

  14. https://laculturevolcan.blogspot.com/2018/07/le-point-sur-la-situation-des-volcans.html

    On here there is a video of the explosion taken by someone who was actually on the boat that got hit. The explosion started underwater from the looks of it. Littoral explosions from active ocean entries are responsible for 4 of the 6 volcano related deaths in hawaii since 1900, and a channelized lava river is a completely different beast to a leaky lava tube. How no-one died is just completely down to the random chance that no-one was under that big rock that went through the roof… There was literally no warning at all, and none of the previous littoral explosions before had been anywhere near as big as this one was. It is probably something to do with the huge flow rate directly into the ocean in one small spot as opposed to a wide area like before.

    I’l be completely honest, I’ve watched videos of literally everything to do with volcanoes at some point, and this was the first one that I was genuinely scared by…

      • I made an error in my previous comment, it was in fact the Coast Guard that had reduced the exclusion area: information from Ikaika Marzo’s video, where he states that the exclusion area had been reduced from 100m to 50m. Ikaika has been a reliable source of information throughout the eruption.
        From the Coast Guard’s statement as linked above:
        “The safety zone surrounds the lava flow and extends out 300-meters, although certain commercial and research vessels with licensed captains demonstrating experience operating in the region and carrying all required safety equipment were given special permission to approach up to 50 meters. Tour vessels are known to operate the area going back at least 20 years.”
        The boat that was involved was a licensed lava boat with an experienced captain. He seems to have been more than 100m off shore at the time.
        I am also aware that the lava tour operator involved lived in Leilani estates and has lost his home and all his property to the lava. Perhaps he will now also lose his business. A little compassion goes a long way.
        While I agree that the boat was clearly too close to the activity, I do think that calling the captain a criminal is over the top.

        • Noted. But all too many times someone lacking common sence has gotten people killed. While malice is probably out of the question, I stand by my opinion. If people do not act responsibly, people die.

          • Indeed, that cannot be argued with.
            Viewing lava must necessarily be a risky activity. One would hope the passengers were made aware of this before they placed their lives in another’s hands.

        • I would agree that calling Shane a criminal over this event is unrealistic.
          If his boat was outside the 50 meter limit the tour companies are allowed to go to (which is actually entirely plausible, the lava is deceptive and can be a lot bigger than it looks, and even good cameras can make things appear closer) then technically he wasn’t even doing anything illegal at all much less something being worthy of being called a criminal over.
          I think 50 meters is way too close especially now that explosions like that are possible and will very likely happen again, but then its the coast guards fault for allowing passes in the first place…

          I guess this is a much more debatable subject than it first appears.

    • And per the spokesman, the operator was liscenced but still had to comply with captain of the port (USCG) requirements which is the afore mentioned 300 meters.

      • This lifted from the USCG statement link –> “The safety zone surrounds the lava flow and extends out 300-meters, although certain commercial and research vessels with licensed captains demonstrating experience operating in the region and carrying all required safety equipment were given special permission to approach up to 50 meters. Tour vessels are known to operate the area going back at least 20 years.”

        • The way I read it. He needed special permission to be allowed to be there. And not just beeing an licenced experienced sailor.

          Does anyone know if he had permission. And if so. What exactly this permission covers?
          Was this a permission slib to enter the zone on his own judgement during the entire eruption. Or permission for that specific trip?

          • I read it as that the permission was give to specific tour organizers, based on their past record. So not for each trip and not a specific sailor. But who knows.

    • This comment stood out…
      “We should get an aircraft carrier, anchor it, an tell the lava to stop.”

      I always knew the US navy was a powerful force.

      • Now I wonder what will happen if you do beach a aircraft carrier in the path of a lava flow.

        I imagine most going around it. With some flows flowing through and filling the carrier.

        • The melting temperature of an aircraft carrier should be well above the temperature of lava, so no problem there. People on board may become somewhat uncomfortable. However, heat + salt will mean extreme corrosion. Very quickly you will have a badly rusted aircraft carrier.

        • Even a nimitz class aircraft carrier would be dwarfed by the main ocean entry. The explosion in the video is probably getting on to at least 200 meters tall just for the glowing part, and even the currently active part where ahalanui was is about 500 meters wide… Most likely it would be buried and then something would catch on fire, and then it would explode from the aviation fuel, turning it into a dirty bomb…

          • “turning it into a dirty bomb” by definition a dirty bomb contains radioactive material. Unless that material is on board, it would simply be a mess.

            As for the Heat+Salt… The magma does a pretty good job of liberating HCL from the water so that would ramp up the corrosion side of the equation quite a bit.

          • Nimitz class aircraft carriers are nuclear powered, and those are probably the ones that most people think of.

    • “Faith in our species” …. interesting comment. i have no faith in our species; that’s not where faith belongs. i’m old; have seen and done a lot; people will and have done everything under certain circumstances. Never expected anything from people and i’ve not been dissapointed. Still i hope for the Best!motsfo

  15. In response to the comments on this issue, VC gives the captain the benefit of the doubt and does not endorse accusations. There is no evidence he broke the rules, and he stayed well outside the minimum stipulated distance. The rules themselves did break common sense. HVO had actually warned on Monday morning that explosions were being reported, with one quite strong, and that warning could have been picked up by the relevant agencies. It is very fortunate that no one was killed and perhaps the biggest surprise (and evidence for the skills of the captain) is that there were any survivors at all.

    The danger of ocean entries should not be underestimated. The point is not what had happened over the previous weeks or months: the point is what could happen. There could have been a worse explosion. There could have been a cliff collapse. Lava could have floated up from below. The relaxation of the rules was, in hindsight, unwise. Unforeseen events do not depend on any ‘demonstrated experience’ of the operators.

    Now if the rules were changed because of lobbying, whoever did the lobbying may have a case to answer. That is a different issue.

    • OO “lava breaking off and floating up” motsfo puts that on the list with sharks and sinking. Hadn’t thought of that…….stuff happens…. he didn’t purposely hurt someone…. and that certainly happens in the world…. he probably feels worse than the people that got hurt. It’s just very unfortunate that it happened at all and it could happen again.

        • Crimes do not have to have mens rea all of the time. If any offences to be charged are strict liability offences then it’s merely the actus reus that is the important bit for guilt or innocence.

          For everyday life think speeding. It doesn’t matter what the conditions of the road etc, if you break the speed limit it is a crime. That is a strict liability offence. It is the breaking of the limit that constitutes that crime, not the breaking of the limit plus your state of mind at the time of breaking of the limit.

          I don’t know about the exclusion zone, but I suspect it is a strict liability offence. In other words if the captain didn’t have the necessary permissions he is in a world of criminal trouble. Even if he is not in a world of criminal trouble he is definitely in a world of civil trouble. Lawsuits from victims incoming in 3, 2, 1. That will bankrupt his business for sure.

          Personally speaking I think that if the exclusion zone rules were relaxed for anything other than research vessels from agencies like the USGS then the person who did the relaxing was grossly negligent. As I said when the comments were made about a possible viewing platform for tourists to see the lava flow, this eruption is far, far, far, far more dangerous than anything that the vast majority of Hawaii residents have ever experienced.

          It is extremely lucky that no one on board that vessel was killed. That would have been manslaughter through gross negligence. Tourists should be nowhere near the eruption, and this lucky escape shows why.

      • IMO, “Black Swans” should not exist. They are the result of jaded idiots.

        • It was ignored by the person who relaxed the exclusion zone. That’s a big difference. Hence saying relaxing the exclusion zone was negligent.

    • talks about the sub-sounds that volcanoes make which i find interesting on a personal level.

  16. We started Monday (check out day) with a snorkel near our hotel and then some time at the pool. Packing (late check out) showers and some shopping, never looking at the news on my phone. Only when we boarded the plane at around 7:30 pm HST did I pull out my phone and find out what had happened. We had noticed some “extra” low level helicopter activity (not the tour groups) over our hotel early, but did not think that something like this had happened. I hope that the passengers do recover from this especially any children, but the screams from the video taken aboard the boat, the the other video of the explosion, shook my core. This did make me think about how I would contemplate our safety since we did consider taking one of these boats to try to get a glimpse (only helicopter and boat tours can do this) of the lava for our family only days earlier.

    We are now back at home southwest of Atlanta. I have been up for around 29 hours (can’t sleep on planes well) and need some sleep. I will give you an update on what we experienced in our days in Kona (hint not good for Hawaii tourism).

    Mac

    • Really ot…. Admin can delete if need. 29 hours… reminds me of a 35hour trip i made following the moon around the world trying to get home. about sick with fatigue and a huge man strode up to me carring a long bow(of all things) and placed himself right beside my chair(he was standing up) and i thought… well this is it… i’m done for. i looked up at him and said”Please watch my stuff” and i promply passed out. We were the only 2 people in the area and he’s standing right next to me?? what gives? i woke up to find the terminal full of people and my plane boarding… he was still there and strode off into the crowd. Never said a word… i mumbled ‘thanks’ and i never saw him again. weird.

      Edit Add: Admin → So what do we get for the 29 hours you are offering if we delete?

    • Very nice! You can see how the caldera consists of several overlapping craters. We are now seeing the next one of these develop. Iki is sitting on the rim fault of an older extension to the caldera. I would assume that each of the previous crater formations have gone similar to the one now, with a deep crater somewhere inside which later filled up again.

      Pit craters are the top ends of conduits, by the way. When the conduit drains (i.e. magma leaves somewhere else), the top collapses. By necessity, they should always be on a magma pathway.

  17. ok, Boys and Girls, i’ve been waiting all evening (here) and either this next drop is a failed attempt or maybe we’ve reached the bottom?? anyway… tired and headed for bed soon. Was hoping to catch the pulse increase in the flow but nothing…. ah well. Best!motsfo

  18. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxOP2PWqvYc&ab_channel=BigIslandVideoNews

    Some updated statistics on the activity now.

    This is the biggest historical collapse of the summit that has been directly observed so far and apparently the other comparable ones (in 1823 and 1832) were centered a lot further north than the current one so that would be a good line of evidence towards the center of activity slowly moving southwards even in recent times.

    Also this eruption is bigger than every other eruption on the lower rift in historical time combined…
    At least 220% the size of 1840.
    360% bigger than 1960
    550% bigger than 1955…
    Really the only eruption that has occurred in the last 400 years that is comparable is 1790, which would have a volume of 0.35 km3 if the flows average about 10 meters thick (which is pretty reasonable based on the size of the flows now).

    Also for anyone like me who wanted to know the extent of historical exposed lava flows.
    https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5af60d04e4b0da30c1b5fa5a
    I only found it today, and it has maps for every eruption before pu’u o’o that has still exposed lava and is from about 1790 onwards. Maybe someone could make a comparison of all the recent east rift flows in one picture now to compare with the current eruption.
    They can be downloaded to google earth too.

    • Kealaalea is post 1790!? and also a lot of eruptions from Kamakaia, black cone too, I didn’t know that. Added to Keaiwa the SWRZ was definitely extremely active during the 1790-1840 period. Very interesting.

      • That must have been what they were talking about in the volcano watch article on the kamakaia hills from about 2 years ago, that a lot more of those flows are younger than first thought. I guess a lot of them were probably covered in 1790 ash that got blown over afterwards and maybe no one had found a good spot that shows the ground beneath those flows before 2016.
        This shows the connection between the summit and the southwest rift very well, as the east rift was completely dead between 1790 and 1840 while the summit was extremely active and most of the lower southwest rift was covered in lava in only a 20 year period, possibly ending because the 1823 eruption had the same effect on that area as the 1790 eruption did on the east rift, and then everything was concentrated at the summit.
        I guess this is pretty much what we predicted could happen after the current activity so this might be some solid evidence to back that up.

        I also noticed that the 1790 eruption actually happened on both sides of heieiahulu, so for that to happen it indicates the eruption probably happened within a short period of time after heiheiahulu stopped and was likely a direct termination like the current event is to pu’u o’o. This therefore indicates that heiheiahulu could have been a long term eruption rivalling pu’u o’o in duration (~1750 – 1790?) or that it is maybe a fair bit younger than previously thought. It also has some similarity to the current activity starting on the uprift side of pu’u o’o before immediately moving downrift.
        I guess the summit of heiheiahulu didn’t collapse because it wasn’t significantly higher in elevation than the main eruption, compared to pu’u o’o which is almost 400 meters higher than pu’u 8.

        It would be great if a google earth file existed of the current eruption, or for pu’u o’o, but they probably don’t want to make one of those until they know pu’u o’o isn’t going to reactivate (probably after 1 year of no eruption there they can call subsequent activity a new eruption).

        • Heiheiahulu was also low rate eruption with predominantly pahoehoe flows, the size I think is comparable to Mauna Ulu so I wouldnt say it lasted more than one or two decades.

          I think the 1750 date for Heiheiahulu comes from what locals told the first westerners when then arrived, so maybe the locals got confused with a different eruption or the westerners made the wrong interpretation, my guess is that Heiheiahulu is younger than thought.

          • Heiheiahulu is probably a lot bigger than mauna ulu, it’s shield is similar but the flow looks like it is more voluminous/thicker. Mauna ulu has a volume of 0.35 km3, which is significantly smaller than the current eruption and probably about the same time as the 1790 eruption. Heiheiahulu is about half the size of pu’u o’o which has a volume of 4.5 km3, but it’s flow is a bit smaller so it is probably between 1 and 2 km3. Pu’u o’o reached that volume after about 12 years so the eruption from heiheiahulu probably occurred over a similar time starting in the 1770s and most likely ending during the 1790 eruption. The 1750 date is probably an estimation based on what the first westerners were told and quite a few other things have been revised since then so I wouldn’t be suprised if a study finds heiheiahulu to be somewhat younger than that. On google earth its flow looks the same colour as the 1790 flow (a darker green) so at least it was probably very recent in 1790.

        • Note that the 1790 collapse caused a boost of SWRZ activity while the ERZ didnt erupt until 1840 and from there to 1922 all it happened were non-eruptive intrusions. Between 1923 and 1955 there were no eruptions either and it isnt until 1960 when activity at the ERZ really picks up with sometimes multiple eruptions each year and the large sustained Mauna Ulu and Pu’u’o’o, a phase of activity that has lasted until now. So 1790 seems to have blocked one rift but activated the other one. The new caldera probably favoured summit activity but it looks like very soon after (0-25 years) Kilauea was capable of producing flank eruptions again but only happened in the SWRZ. it seems then that whatever blocked the ERZ was something that happened only there and maybe redirected all flank eruptions to the SWRZ, I propose that the reason why this happened wasnt just the caldera collapsing but the added collapse of the ERZ which would have blocked the conduit from the summit at multiple spots.

          • That actually fits pretty well with the idea I had of the seismic southwest rift hijacking the east rift at its source and diverting some of that feed to the southwest in the near future, for whatever reason. Until the mauna iki eruption (which happened 80 years after the post 1790 surge ended) all of the eruptions had mostly occurred at or beyond the point where the seismic and volcanic halves of the SWRZ join. The point where the kamakaia hills is seems to have been repeatedly active with very small eruptions before the big one that made the main flow, so at that point there was probably an open connection between the two and possibly a similar situation of dual eruptions at the summit and flank as what was happening during pu’u o’o until recently. There is some evolved lava that formed a strombolian type cinder cone like the one at fissure 17 two months ago, but most of the lava seems to have been pahoehoe that was tube fed and long lasting up to probably at least a few months to over a year.

            Activity at the summit was still very vigorous during this time though, much more lava erupted in the caldera than in the flank. There is post-1790 high lava fountain tephra all over the southwest area of the caldera near HVO and the caldera had half filled by 1823 when another collapse brought it back to the brink of starting another explosion (almost reached the water table again). After this things were entirely summit restricted until 1840 and possibly the highest average rate of eruption on kilauea during historical time was during this period. Well over 4 km3 of lava were erupted in the 17 years between 1823 and 1840, and the massive 1832 collapse (nearly as big as the current one and larger than the 1823 collapse) was completely filled by 1840 indicating a supply rate even significantly higher than it was during pu’u o’o, close to 0.3 km3 per year which is probably the highest value out of any single volcano anywhere on earth. Apparently the entire 3 km wide caldera was floored by a continuous and probably deep lava lake in 1840, which would actually completely qualify as a real lake by surface area…

          • Kealaalea and Kamakaia are well uprift of the merging point of the volcanic and seismic SWRZs, which would probably be immediately south of the Ponohohoa chasms, the southernmost vent that clearly belongs to it. There is really no evidence for activity of the volcanic SRWZ until 1868. I think Kamakaia Hills are an independent sub-rift from the other two downrift of the 1974 vents, based on cracks distribution and the 1963 koae intrusion which if it had continued south instead of turning east I am pretty sure would have ended at Kamakaia, this would explain why its magma is more evolved than that of the seismic SRWZ, in magma pathway to Kamakaia there would be some old reservoirs that cannot feed eruptions at Kealaalea or Keaiwa because they would not be connected to the seismic SWRZ. But we will have to wait for a Kamakaia Hills eruption to know.

          • Actually the December 1974 eruption was also followed by an intrusion to the southwest that stopped at the kamakaia hills and most likely almost caused an eruption there. HVO has said that the spot where the two rifts merge is undefined but both the kaleealea and kamakaia hills are roughly within the merge and that there is a stored magma body in that spot that has probably partly evolved near the top. I think the idea of an independent sub rift to the kamakaia hills area is something that might happen in the future as the summit vent very slowly relocates south but I don’t think it is quite there yet.

            As you said too, I think we will just have to wait a few years for something to eventually happen there. I did come to the conclusion that because eruptions on the southwest rift happen roughly 50 years apart and the last one was 44 years ago that a new one might be not too far away, but I don’t know if that really counts in this context… 😉

          • Based on cracks, fissure vents and intrusions (1950, 1963, 1971, 1974) this is how I would propose the SWRZ structure to be.

            And this would be with the lava flow shapefiles.

            The 1974 intrusion didnt stop at Kamakaia Hills, it continued downrift to the main Kealaalea fissure and it actually runned parallel Kamakaia but to the northwest, the one I believe to have been a failed intrusion there was the 1950 intrusion which started at Kokoolau crater intruded Koae faults and seems to have ended at Kamakaia or nearby, the 1963 intrusion also got very close to Kamakaia intruding the faults to the northeast of it, but to confirm any of this an actual eruption there would be needed.

          • A 1950-like intrusion/eruption would be another good way to hijack the ERZ.

          • There was magma moving into the southwest rift for most of 2006 based on inflation data, and the high lava level in 2015 ended with a small intrusion to the south of the caldera. That means activity has extended into that area within recent time and the area should be primed for an eruption. I’m not sure about 1950 as I read that was east rift restricted, but after 1963 there have been intrusions into the southwest rift in 1963, 1965(?), 1971, 1974(x2), 1980, 1982(x2?) 2016 and maybe 2015. Eruptions happened in only 1971 and 1974, so there have been a lot of currently failed eruptions there that based on 2006 have likely created an open conduit. Pu’u o’o has stopped pressure building up to cause an eruption anywhere else up until now, but things are looking pretty much over there, so after the current eruption ends, magma will rapidly fill the chamber again and could well start erupting on the southwest rift too, although more likely a lot of it will erupt at the summit initially due to ease of access. The east rift is probably going to be partly open still but not enough to take over again.

            This is probably what happened after 1790 too, those really small eruptions could have been the first openings of a stable conduit connecting to the surface, and when the caldera floor rise above that in elevation it was able to erupt properly. I guess in 1823 it was the equivalent of this current eruption in lower puna, it destroyed the shallow conduit and after that everything was basically summit restricted for 130 years with a few generally small exceptions apart from 1840.

            It is almost like a smaller version of the 1952-now sequence, initial small eruptions and building of a magma pathway, then a fairly large eruption (kealaalea – ~1800), then another larger eruption that is somewhat long lived (kamakaia – ~1820), then a very voluminous high rate eruption that destroys the rift conduit and causes a caldera collapse (keaiwa – 1823). It obviously isn’t exactly the same but it is interesting still.
            I would also consider the bottom line of your picture should probably extend across up to kilauea iki, it wasn’t connected in the 1790 period but it probably is now after several eruptions and near eruptions between kilauea iki and the south caldera fault in the last 70 years and all oriented in the direction towards the southwest rift. Maybe at least a dotted line.

          • Most of the information I have found on the 1950 intrusion comes from this publication you linked some time ago: https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/pp1806. There is also information about it in the 1950 activity report: https://pubs.usgs.gov/bul/0996b/report.pdf
            The intrusion barely affected the ERZ, that was only where it started (near Kokoolau), then it moved into Koae where it opened some new cracks and the last earthquakes where centered around Kamakaia. 1963 and 1950 could suggest that Kamakaia Hills are feeded trough a different pathway than the rest of the SRWZ that would involve Koae faults. Cracks in the Kamakaia Hills also seem to be connected to the Koae faults and more specifically the Kalanaokuaiki fault which might be the one with a magma reservoir responsible for the andesites. All the fissure vents there are aligned with this crack/fault system.

            The reason Kilauea Iki is not in the image is because I was only including the western “half” of the Kilauea, otherwise I would have had to connect the seismic SWRZ to Keanakakoi and Kamakaia Hills to the ERZ through the Kalanaokuaiki fault and maybe other Koae faults. But if I was to include Kilauea Iki I would put it as an independent feature since as I have said earlier cracks and fissures are very localized there and they are oriented in a different way to the closest fissure vents, the 1959 eruption earthquakes maybe could suggest a connection with the volcanic SWRZ but I dont think thats concluding, a future eruption with the current seismographs would allow a better monitoring of any earthquake swarms associated.

  19. @Albert it was a burial and not a cremation. –> “Our overflight confirmed that VO46 was buried under rubble.”

  20. Next Kilauea quake just happened. Now wait an hour or two to see whether the Fissure-8 flow will be affected

    • And yes, the channel is overflowing heavily. The quakes indeed affect the lava flow from the fissure.

      The pressure wave travels at the speed of sound. In magma, the sound speed depends on the amount of gas: a higher gas content means slower speed of sound. Degassing occurs mostly close to the fissure, so presumably the gas content is highest there. The sound (pressure) wave comes through the magma, and slows down as it approaches the fissure (to less than the speed of sound in the atmosphere). That should give a large overpressure near the exit, and perhaps this is what drives out the extra magma and temporarily increases the lava flow.

      • It seems to have stopped now though, and actually looks lower than I have ever seen it before close to the vent. Basically the entire bright glowing area near the vent is not there now, the lava is only visible in the crater and from about half way to the bend in the channel so it isn’t flowing nearly as high as only a few minutes before.

        • I think it recovered again. Fits with the pressure pushing out extra magma, to be paid for by the magma flow which follows. The average flow does not change. Of course, it could also be a bit of a collapse of the sides covering up the hottest part of the flow.

          The response of Uwekahuna to the quake was more severe than in recent days. I hope it is not the next GPS to bite the dust. This volcano wants sacrificial GPS’s – which must count as a behaviourial improvement over the virgins of the past.

          • I wonder why it only seems to overflow significantly to the south.
            It does overflow to the north but the flows only rarely even get past the existing edge of the flow while a lot of flows to the south like this one will go for a lot longer distance despite being on flatter ground. The curve of the channel would only seem to indicate it should overflow the north side even more in that area but as far as I can remember there haven’t been any overflows from that part since the start of June or earlier

      • I visualize this like trying to pour a watering can but with a stopper/lid on top so there is vacuum, the pulses are glugs, just the same the watering can would have to glug, the volcano does not glug it just caldera collapses through suction/vacuum and gravity.
        There is the pressure relief through rising magma from the depths if that stops then bang, I think.
        Am I anywhere near ?


  21. This is the earthquake plot of the last year plotting time going from left to right with right being up to now.
    I noticed that a month before the current activity started the really deep purple quakes seem to stop and the blue quakes at a slightly shallower depth start getting a lot more frequent and trend upwards towards the surface, then shortly afterwards there is the noticeable pattern of large quakes associated with the caldera collapsing after the current eruption started.
    It is also noticeable that after being absent for about a month the deep purple quakes have started happening again and there are more quakes in the green and blue area. The purple ones are sort of scattered and probably arent related to any particular volcano but the blur quakes include the deep Pahala swarm


    This is the other plot that shows the quakes based on location in kilauea viewed from the south, the recurring magnitude 5s are very obvious and show where the summit is, and the 6.9 is also visible. Almost all of the deep quakes are in the general summit area which is to be expected. The green ones might show where the bottom of the crust is and the stuff below there is in the mantle.

    The only thing I can think of that could cause something like that is the movement of a lot more magma in the deeper area after the start of this year than before, which is most likely the cause of the lake overflows and the inflation at pu’u o’o, and obviously the major eruption on the LERZ that has yet to even slow down after 80 days… HVO have only said that the rate of eruption exceeds the rate of supply which causes the summit to deflate, but this deflation could be hiding the initial stages of that big magma surge I have been predicting would follow this event. The draining rate to the east rift is so high that the average supply rate from depth could have increased by even 5 times over and and still be completely hidden by the deflation, so it is something that could have been easily missed by everyone during all the ‘excitement’.

    • I have been looking too at those plots and discovered a difference compared with the plots made in the USGS monitoring website (the one which gives you the possibility to select area and magnitude).
      The depth color scheme isn’t the same which confused a long time, eventually I noticed 😐😁. And the area with the deep Pahala swarm is covered just partially (only the most eastern part) in the graphs you are commenting on Turtlebirdman.

      Therefor it is a bit tricky to judge the continuing deep activity by this graph only. And then there was the slump and the bit of quakes that came with and after it…

      I really wish someone could make a 3D sequence, like some of the members here do for the Island events. Such may reveal a little more Kilauea roots and ways. I tried a bit, but gave up, it is beyond my skills I am afraid.

      I am also still puzzled by the spots where the M5+ occur. USGS still calls them volcanic gas explosions, aren’t they? I often think back to the Bardarbunga event, where also many M 5’s occured, mainly in the north and south rim, not (or very few) at other places at the calderas rim. I wonder if these quakes had the same cause as the thought gas explosions at Kilauea and less with the stress release of the collaps itself.

      • I don’t think the difference in colour is that important, it says the depth of the quakes on the side of the graph.

        The slump probably has no impact on anything happening in the deep feeder system, it might have opened a wider conduit to allow the current eruption to be as big as it has been but that is about it.

        The magnitude 5s are called collapse explosions because they used to be associated with ash eruptions but those stopped in June. Those quakes are caused by the new caldera fault sinking and early on we’re probably caused by other wider faults combining to take up the deflation.

  22. Replying to TBM earlier several comments up about the overflows to the south instead of the north. At the upper regions of the perched channel I think that the outside of the curves receive more splatter due to the velocity of the lava there, building up the edge and making the overflows more likely on the inside of curves, the south.

    • What about the high momentum of the mass of the flow? 2700-3100 kg/m³ carries a lot of kinetic energy at several meters per second.

      “The second law states that the rate of change of momentum of a body is directly proportional to the force applied, and this change in momentum takes place in the direction of the applied force.”

      • Momentum and energy are different things. But both are considerable. At fissure Eve, the driving force is upward, not forward. The kinetic energy of the subsequent flow comes from gravity. The net momentum is zero – as the flow moves forward, it pushes the island backward. The island is very big (it is called the ‘Big Island’, after all) and can handle that.

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