From Just Icelandic
Grimsvotn is not just another volcano; It’s a special beast that captivates both Mafic Maniacs and Caldera Crazies. This volcano plays many characters, producing everything from expansive lava flows to basaltic Plinian eruptions but mostly mundane lava flows or irrelevant explosions For me, Grimsvotn holds a special place among other volcanoes, ranking among my top three candidates likely to produce a caldera-forming eruption within the next decade, alongside Ioto and Chiles-Cerro Negro.
What sets Grimsvotn apart from its peers? At first glance, it may appear to be the odd one out. Unlike Ioto and Chiles-Cerro Negro, which have longer dormancy periods and lacks felsic magma, Grimsvotn is believed to be in a phase of recovery following its substantial eruption in 1783. On the surface, it lacks the typical characteristics one might expect in discussions of caldera-forming volcanoes. However, beneath this façade lies compelling evidence suggesting a more vigorous and dynamic system than initially assumed.
To understand Grimsvotn’s potential for future eruptions, we must first delve into its plumbing. The volcano’s shallow magma chamber has been rapidly fed with exceptionally rich basaltic magma. This influx has been so significant that Grimsvotn managed to recover from its near VEI 5 eruption in a mere four years. In 2011, an eruption released approximately 0.2 km³ of magma, which implies a minimum annual magma supply rate of 0.05 km³. It is essential to note that this figure may be a minimal figure; the presence of the overlying ice sheet complicates the assessment of vertical deformation, making it challenging to determine the precise timing of the magma chamber’s recovery. Some GPS data suggests that Grimsvotn might have fully recovered by late 2013 or early 2014. Since 2011, a rough calculation indicates that about 0.65 km³ of magma has entered the system, enough to produce a VEI 5 eruption but not enough for a caldera-forming event.
Grimsvotn’s system is mature, characterized by a persistent shallow magma chamber that measures between 7 km to 8 km in width and 4 km to 5 km in height, with a depth of approximately 1 km. This results in a total volume estimate of 22-31.4 km³. The shallow chamber is being fed by a much larger deeper system. Unlike other volcanoes such as Fagradalsfjall, Grimsvotn has the potential to erupt more magma than it has accumulated post-eruption.
If Grimsvotn were to produce a caldera-forming eruption, it would likely involve reactivated magma, as the ratio of intruded magma to the chamber volume is remarkably high. Over the past 14 years, the shallow chamber has received about 2-3% of its total volume, significantly more than the ratios observed in other volcanoes experiencing similar intrusions, such as Laguna del Maule or Öræfajökull. In general, caldera-collapse eruptions can expel between 10-40% of the total chamber volume, which give us an eruption volume of 2.2 to 12.56 km³ of magma. Such an eruption would likely be sulfur-rich, and might lead to considerable climatic repercussions.
Currently, Grimsvotn is characterized by a large, shallow system undergoing significant magma intrusion, with no signs of a downturn in activity. This persistent state raises the question: when will Grimsvotn erupt again? Since the inception of this blog, this question has been posed annually.
The Challenge of Predicting Eruptions
Forecasting volcanic eruptions is notoriously complex, as exemplified by the predictions made by Albert and Carl. Using various methodologies including, Cumulative Seismic moment deformation monitoring, and pressure calculations, they anticipated potential eruption windows in late 2020-2021 and 2018-2019, respectively. However, nature often has its own agenda, and Grimsvotn promptly defied these predictions.
One critical aspect to consider is that the impediment to an eruption at Grimsvotn does not stem from a lack of pressure or magma. Instead, the volcano seems to struggle with forming a conduit robust enough to allow for magma ascent. Without a suitable medium for the magma to reach the surface, pressure builds without resulting in an eruption. Since 2004, Grimsvotn has been getting hotter and hotter while I don’t know the specific metrics. It is well-documented that when magma reservoirs reach a certain thermal threshold, the system becomes less capable of producing fracturing earthquakes. As the surrounding rock heats up, it transitions from a brittle state to a more elastic one, making it increasingly difficult for magma to fracture the rock and reach the surface. This change in thermal dynamics likely explains the deviation observed in the current CSM curve compared to the two previous eruptions. Notably, there have been significantly fewer small earthquakes, and most of the seismic activity recorded over the last 13 years has come from larger events. Grimsvotn’s elevated temperature means that despite having the pressure and magma, the volcanic system is unable to erupt.
The seismic activity around Grimsvotn is also noteworthy. The quakes have not concentrated in a single area but have instead spread out in an oval pattern surrounding the volcano. This distribution likely reflects the pressure exerting stress on the entire chamber roof rather than resulting from localized ruptures. The quakes are growing larger, with the most significant events reaching magnitude 4. If a conventional magma intrusion does not develop into an eruption, it is plausible that Grimsvotn may produce a ring dyke or a larger traditional dyke, setting the stage for a more significant eruption. In this way, Grimsvotn finds itself caught in a feedback loop: as long as the magma intrusion persists, the surrounding rock will continue to heat up and remain elastic, complicating the eruption process further. I am of the opinion that Grimsvotn will erupt in the next 2 years not based on any models or formulas but the oh-so-logical gut feeling. The last four years have seen a steep increase in accumulated seismic energy, indicating that Grimsvotn may be nearing its limit. While seismic activity has weakened over the past seven months, one should not be misled. The volcano is still accumulating strain, and the potential for an eruption remains present. If the caldera roof eventually succumbs to the built-up pressure, it could lead to an explosive event, or perhaps a style of eruption akin to that witnessed in 2011, albeit this is less likely according to my assessments.
In summary, Grimsvotn is a unique and complex volcano that offers much for us volcano fanatics. Its history, magma dynamics, and the ongoing interactions between temperature, pressure, and rock elasticity could provide a good case study for understanding volcanic behavior. Whether it erupts soon or remains dormant for a little longer, this volcano is not going to get boring for a while as it reveals more of its secrets as time goes on.
Tallis
Lots of good points, feels like it has been a very long time since Grimsvotn was the subject of an article.
I think part of the instability of magma intrusion to calderas comes from different magma mixing, Grimsvotn would be slightly evolved basalt mixing with less evolved basalt. So seems no mechanism there.
If there is a mature chamber there it seems more likely to drain with a lateral intrusion and eruption than an ignimbrite, theres only one true ignimbrite in Iceland that I am aware of, at Krafla. I guess, how likely that is too depends on if Laki was from Grimsvotn or shared a crustal storage with it but was a bit independant. And how much strain is free. If Veidivotn rifts then Grimsvotn might have nowhere to do likewise and just keep accumulating magma for a few more centuries.
Will be very informative when the next eruption happens 🙂
I’ll say that I am being extremely stringent with how much Magma has accumulated. Assuming Grimsvotn has been receiving the same amount of magma since the uptick began in 1996. We’d get 1.4 km3 of magma in the last 28 years of which only 0.35 km3 erupted. I think the maximum plausible estimate of total magma accumulated is around 2.26 km3.
Even in it’s largest Basaltic blasts, Grimsvotn rarely leaves behind ignimbrite. When it comes to Caldera forming eruption, I subscribe to the belief that magma buoyancy is the main driver. Perhaps it’s me but I’ve had my fill of effusive eruptions A large basaltic VEI 5 or 6 would be far more interesting to me but it’s unlikely all the same. It has been speculated that a combination of the evolved basalt and the super rich new basalt could be a explosive combination in one of Carl’s articles if I am not mistaken
Yes, reheating of stale magma by fresh basalt is found in some large eruptions. Grimsvotn has three aspects worth considering. One is the effect of the lake, and in particular the regular drainages (jokulhaups). They have a tendency to cause eruptions (and eruptions cause jokulhaups – cause and effect can interchange here). From that point of view, Grimsvotn is not ready. The second is that the last eruption was rather large and possibly premature. Grimsvotn spend some time doing absolutely nothing after it, when it should have shown signs of rebuilding. The third is Holuhraun. Activity at Grimsvotn declined during this, so either the eruption or the magma staying behind in the dike (not that far from Grimsvotn) affected it.
A 15-year (or longer) hiatus in Grimsvotn is not particularly unusual. This volcano is hyperactive but easily distracted.
I dont recall Carl talking about a magmatic high VEI at Grimsvotn, it was based on it going Krakatau through its lake. Although, after seeing Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha’apai, it seems the mechanism of those eruptions isnt what it was assumed to be, so that is really up in the air.
I dont doubt that a powerful eruption could happen at the caldera, which would end up being mostly or entirely explosive from water interaction. But eruptions outside the caldera under the ice dont seem to melt it fast enough to become explosive, 2011 was through the caldera lake so didnt need to melt anything. Gjalp shows it well, it wasnt a small or slow eruption but not explosive at all even when it broke through.
Grimsvotn big one was 8000 years ago (actually a series of eruptions): https://www.volcanocafe.org/grimsvotn-the-saksunarvatn-tephras-2
Carl is on record that such a large event is not expected now: https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-hotness-of-grimsvotn/
Wasn’t the Saksunarvatn Tephras comprised of some Pinatubo-level events in conjunction with some smaller eruptions? I mean the rate of magma influx never waned after the 2004 or 2011 eruptions. If Grimsvotn maintained a 0.05km3/year after the 2014 eruption, wouldn’t that mean that Grimsvotn wouldn’t need a long time to recover? The 2011 eruption didn’t even exhaust all of the magma built up after 2004.
I guess I am in the minority here but the pressure, magma, and heat have surpassed the values observed in 2011. I don’t see why Grimsvotn would need to recover. I think the heat of the volcano can explain the weaker seismic activity and no eruption since 2011. We can se the CSM grow broader after the 2004 eruption.
Grimsvotn should have “just” recovered from 2011 around now. In terms of vertical movement, deformation was recovered as soon as 2014, but the whole of Vatnajökull is undergoing rapid isostatic uplift, the areas immediately around the glacier 3 cm uplift per year, in Grimsvotn it should be higher. If you look at GFUM the horizontal movements EU plate fixed, it looks like the deflation was recovered somewhere between 2022 and this year, depending on whether you look at the east or north components:
http://geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/stations/GFUM.sta
If it recovered somewhere in between that must have been around 2023. Pressure should be slightly higher than in 2011. Maybe we get a similar eruption, don’t know for sure. These Iceland calderas tend to be repetitive in their way of erupting, opening circumferential fissures. I don’t know what made 2011 so much bigger than 2004.
Why would it be higher for Grimsvotn? Isostatic uplift has always been a thing and it’s always constant. I don’t think Horizantal deformation reliable in this situation considering all of the big events that could mess with the signals such as inflation at Oraefajokull and Bardarbunga’s uplift and subisdence with earthquakes.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013JB010569
Well, it seems to get higher as you get close to Vatnajökull, so I’m guessing the isostatic uplift is strongest in the middle. I highly doubt Oraefajokull effects are significant here, maybe Holuhraun may have affected the horizontal deformation, I don’t know.
There is only one GPS station smack dab on Grimvotn and depending on the inflation source or structure, the rate of horizontal deformation may not be congruent. I also don’t have data for the deformation on the southern portion of Bardarbunga. I think using vertical deformation might be more accurate since horizontal deformation can be so finicky.
I know about the Saksunarvatn eruptions but the bit that is weird is how no ash is found in Iceland at all. The rate of having 4 different VEI 5+ eruptions in 500 years isnt really that weird though. It is rare because most volcanoes productive enough to do that arent explosive. 150 km3 is also an average of only 0.3 km3 a year, which based on the numbers for melt generation after deglaciation, seems plausible in that time period. But the eruptions needed to be before deglaciation to not deposit ash…
I dont try to be needlessly critical, its just that the more I think about most of the claims of Icelandic volcanism that have been made on here before it wasnt actually presented as speculation when it really should have been. Or if it was then it has later evolved into presumed fact. Stuff like Holuhraun being a small eruption when it was the 4th biggest in Iceland in 1000 years. Or every Icelandic volcano having 500-1000 km3 of magma ready to go at any moment without making a distinction about plutonic and eruptable magma chambers.
Maybe also that Laki was erupted directly from mantle decompression, a runaway event that stops itself somehow. None of these things are really consistent with observations we have actually seen.
There is a record of the Saksunarvatn ashfall in Iceland,
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1871101419300238
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/253914961_The_Widespread_10ka_Saksunarvatn_Tephra_A_Product_of_Three_Separate_Eruptions
I think you’re being hyperbolic when it comes to what some are saying about Iceland one said that any Iceland volcano has 500+ km3 of magma ready to go. Katla, Bardarbunga, and Grimsvotn all likely have chambers of that amount of magma within them but by no means does that mean it’s ready to go.
Compared to Laki, the 18th century eruptions of Katla, Eldja, and Veidvotn. I mean Holurauhan is pretty lame compared to all of that. It is impressive but being 5th or 6th place is nothing to write home about.
I was quoting loosely what had been said in some of the old articles, not making the claim, actually the opposite… The Icelandic calderas are big volcanoes, but the huge magma systems under them are part of the MAR, the real volume is probably pretty much the shallow magma chamber. Although, Laki and Eldgja are too big to be scaled up versios of Holunraun entirely, so both probably involved magma accumulation deeper than the main magma chamber.
Maybe that is why Grimsvotn was pretty unimportant historically, kt was spending most of the time building a big sill complex and not erupting much. Today it could be sending all of its supply to the caldera. So, ironically it being more active and bigger eruptions might mean a major event is much less likely, not at high risk to repeat soon.
You can’t just write off the deeper chambers like that. The only reason why these volcanoes even exist in their present form is because of the MAR and the deep chambers are clearly defined to their respective volcanoes. Iwo-Jima, Corbetti, and Udina all have similar setups so it’s not even like the structure is novel to Iceland.
You are actually agreeing with my point on deep magma systems Tallis. Deep systems are important, and it isnt unique to have a seemingly colossal volume of magma under an unassuming volcano. It was more a friendly criticism of the statement that was made of Grimsvotn having more magma than normal. Any volcano that sits in thick crust will be like this.
Using the same consistency to give Grimsvotn 500 km3 of deep magma gives Kilauea and Mauna Loa almost double that each just within their edifices, and probably multiple thousand km3 going to the mantle, the Pahala sills alone have enough magma to double Kilaueas supply rate for centuries, and that actually could have just happened… And even bigger the deep system of Yellowstone has got about 12,000 km3 of deep mafic magma, and possibly getting into LIP scale stuff assing in the still very large scale and active volcanism of the Snake River province.
I think it started right here, originally a decade ago. And convenient to the above comment.
https://www.volcanocafe.org/grimstone-vs-yellowvotn-battle-of-the-giants/
Not a criticism of Carl or anyone, actually a great example of just how incredibly informative the last decade has been, and how much has happened in such a short time 🙂
There is nothing typical about having 500-1000 km3 of magma within a volcano less than 10% percent of the volcanoes on the planet have this much volume. Corbetti, Udina, and Ioto are far from typical volcanoes.
And the Pahala sill complex is not tied to any one volcano but 2 (possibly 3) so it’s more of a regional conjoined feeder system. So the Situations are not comparable
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-hawaii-earthquake-swarm-magma-sills.html
It’s not the size, it’s how much magma the volcano is getting in, Some estimate go as high 0.11 km3 a year for the deeper chamber which is extremely large for volcano like this.
Far asI know the only volcanoes that actually have widespread acceptance of such huge magma bodies are Hawaii and Yellowstone/Snake River province, and those are both non rifting plume fed volcanoes with enormous magma flux. And also the batholith derived calderas of the Andes if a batholith can be considered a magma chamber, but these are not excessively active at present. The case in Iceland is sensible and entirely likely but the only place I have ever seen it actually stated as fact is on Volcanocafe, actually… So any dimensions are completely conjectural. I have never come across any source claiming for oceanic arc volcanoes having disproportionate huge plumbing systems. Tambora did a VEI 7 without imploding or using a deep magma chamber, it isnt exclusive to big eruptions, but it is a fundamental difference.
Grimsvotn has a high density ‘intrusive complex’ of 300-400 km3 in the upper crust (less than 6km deep). It is hot enough to be non-magnetic. Above that is a 2km thick pile of rubble, assumed to be caldera fill from all those eruptions. Bardabunga has a similar complex, as does the oft-ignored Vonarskard. This intrusion is basalt (hence the high density) and it is much larger than the caldera on top. It is not fresh: it is assumed to be the intrusions over the life time of the system that have solidified fully or in part. (A value for volume of a magma chamber does not mean that is te amount of magma. That depends on what fraction of the chamber is liquid.) It is not necessarily eruptible. The deeper reservoirs must be of at least similar size and are eruptible: the volume of Laki indicates that a much larger volume must have been present at depth – perhaps 15-20km?. But this deeper reservoir is not the really deep one at the bottom of the crust, 40 km deep where the liquid fraction of the upper mantle congregates.
Wasnt aware it was found in Iceland, but solves that problem.
Tallis:
Thank you for this article. New thought to me, was that heating rock can actually made volcanic eruptions harder to occur, but what else can we say that would cause this pause in Grimsvotn while we know that the feeder magma has a good continuous flow rate?
I think the original idea of the Holurahaun eruption decompressing the chamber at Grimsotn is probably a good alternative. Carl and Albert spoke of this in their articles. The 2011 eruption could have some more discreet impacts at the volcano as well.
The idea is that the volcanoes are linked via the deep supply chain: they have separate magma reservoirs but get their magma from the deep. A pressure change in one may therefore affect the supply to the other. This does not require actual magma exchange, just pressure changes. This is speculation! And note that another reason Grimsvotn went quiet during Holuraun is that it is much harder to detect weak earthquakes when a near neighbour is so noisy.
There appears to be an uptick in earthquake activity in the Vatnajokull region of Iceland. See https://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/ I have not seen this in a long time, since Bardarbunga did its thing (leading to the Holuhruan fissure eruption)
Thomas and I were discussing and current earthquake levels are still normal it’s just that the area was running below average for the last 3 months
Thanks for the correction. I guess I skim too much on the articles here.
Grimsvotn gos data
The most significant recent movement is the S movement:
Most other stations (f.e. linked to Bardarbunga) haven’t moved S/N/E/W. This indicates that something must be going on north of Grimsvötn. KISA is the only one which has moved N, but I can’t find a map with its location:
The PNG pictures don’t load, maybe are too big. The first station I published was GFUM’s recent GPS http://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/grimsvotn.html and KISA (Bardarbunga GPS page) http://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/bardarbunga.html
KISA sits on the NW border of Vatnajökull, close to Bardarbunga: https://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gpsweb/index.php?id=KISA
The GPS movement looks as if something happens between them. Is it volcanic or caused by glacier geology? Between the stations sits Bardarbunga’s central volcano. Is Gjàlp also in this part of Vatnajökull?
From memory, I think KISA is Kistufjell.
Gjalp is in the vicinity, northeast of Bardabunga, between Bardabunga and Kistufjell and pretty much due north of Grimsvotn.
No, KISA is not Kistufjöll, but Kista – an ice free, rocky outcrop NW of Bárdarbunga, marked on maps as a peak some 1570m above sea level.
Gjalp is quite a bit further south than I thought, much closer to Grimsvotn, just to the north of it.
I get a bit confused between Greip and Gjalp, but this article shows the location of both.
https://www.volcanocafe.org/magmatic-intrusion-at-greip/
Thank-you for the link and map!
It shows that both Bardarbunga, Loki-Fögrufjöll, Gjàlp and Greip lie between KISA and Grimsvötn central volcano. Somewhere there is probably extension going on now. Loki-Fögrufjöll was the location for Bardarbung’s explosive tephra eruptions, comparable to Grimsvötn’s style. During Gjàlp on November 6th 1996 there was one hour or so of an 4km high explosive eruption at Bardabunga (Loki-Fögrufjöll?)
I strongly disagree with Carl’s idea of an intrusion shooting in from Kistufell, marked in red. If you follow the sequence of quakes, they started along the ring fault. Then, an M4.3 quake happened that initiated the formation of a dyke to the SE along the blue line. As that dyke evolved, there were triggered quakes between BB and Kistufell, just like those we have seen at Reykjanes. As the dyke turned left at the corner, so did the strain gradient. New triggered quakes happened, this time at Kistufell and later, as the dyke progressed, also at Kverkfjöll.
I have seen no publications anywhere mention a supposed dyke going from Kistufell into BB. As far as I know, Carl is the only one who has ever claimed that.
If anything, there was a failed intrusion going from BB towards Kistufell in May. At that point, Carl correctly predicted that something was about to happen at Bárdarbunga.
It is very hard for a dike from an upper crust magma chamber of one volcano to break into the magma chamber of another one. They may share a deep magma source, though: magma percolating up can take inclined paths and end up at the neighbour, as is happening in Reykjanes. Typically, central volcanoes stay far enough apart from each other so that they have a monopoly on their magma. See https://www.volcanocafe.org/volcano-ecology/
A dike from Kistufull into BB would indeed be difficult to argue.
(But if you go deep enough, all Vatnajokull volcanoes have a common source in the upper mantle.)
I did find it strange to call Kistufell a central volcano. Its only eruption was at the end of the ice age and with magma right out of the plume, sounds exactly like a monogenetic eccentric vent that used the rift zone as a weak point. Theres a lot of tuyas all around it, and a few lava shields, as well as numerous fissures of probably historical age.
It also never really sat right that Holuhraun had a dike with such an angle. The magma had a deep origin and was very hot but such a radial dike would need to be shallow. The main rift zone was also way more seismic. To me it looks like the start of the intrusion was something other than a vertical dike, maybe a sill that rotated, then went along as a dike. Or a cone sheet, which is basically the same thing but more inclined to start. Or it wasnt immediately fed by the magma chamber under the caldera at all and was only hydraulically connected to it through existing plumbing, as was the case at Kilauea a few years later. Maybe Greip was that plumbing.
Thanks for a very interesting article, Tallis!
Thanks for your invitation of our virtual volcano expedition to return to Grimsvötn, Tallis!
The description of Grimsvötn by the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes mentions the probability for “explosive intermediate eruptions” as 10%. They explain that eruptions at/around Gjàlp last produced basaltic andesite (Icelandite).
Grimsvötn did three large eruptions at the central volcano during last 400 years: 1619, 1873 and 2011. This doesn’t look as if this size is repeated frequently. “Recurrence frequency 150-200 years”. 2011 probably was our one and only large Grimsvötn explosive eruption during our lifetime. Maybe Gjàlp will do something again. Otherwise I’d expect that Grimsvötn will do predominantly minor/local explosive eruptions that cover Vatnajökull with black ash, but don’t disrupt European plane traffic.
Usually, I’d agree but since 1998, Grimsvotn has been going through an active phase which I believe could hasten a larger eruption.
Would an eruption like this be an extraordinary event of Grimsvötn’s Holocene history, different to the historically eruptions?
If we look at Holohraun, it was moderate compared to Vatnaöldur and Veidivötn eruptions. Grimsvötn/Vatnajökull still could do eruptions after Vatnaöldur in 900 and after Veidivötn in 1500. The break in both cases was around 23 years. If this was repeated now, it would lead to next Grimsvötn eruption around 2038.
Can Bardabunga continue its activity of 2014-2015 on more SW parts of the fissure swarm system? Holohraun was fed – as we witnessed – by a dike from the central volcano. If the fissure swarm has independent magmatic roots, it may still have access to magma reservoirs. The CoIV describes the plumbing system in the fissure swarm: https://icelandicvolcanos.is/?volcano=BAR
“Some of the fissure eruptions on the fissure swarm may have been fed by magma from a deep-seated reservoir, possibly at the crust-mantle boundary.”
Bardarbunga is probably spent for a while, Holuhraun was 1.6 km3, while the eruptions at Veidivotn are only marginally larger, its the tephra volume that looks huge but the DRE for 1477 is only about 3 km3 at maximum, and likely less. The length of most lava flows originating at Veidivotn does indicate eruptions there are more intense, however. Bardarbunga was quiet for a long time after 1477, although to be fair it wasnt really observed much there would be evidence of a major eruption.
Veidivotn will probably rift within 100 years. I doubt Grimsvotn will do so, rifting isnt a normal mode of eruption for it, Laki was the first eruption on the fissure swarm in 5000 years.
Does the fissure swarm of Bardarbunga contain independent magma reservoirs that can erupt without participation of the central magma chamber? Historically there were eruptions until Torfajökull, very far away from Vatnajökull. Lava flows of Bardarbunga even reached the southern coast in the southern non-volcanic Selfoss area between Hengill and Hekla.
The what?
Fourth item on the information panel on Bardabunga (‘Detailed description’)
Fissure swarm is the way that dikes tend to be focussed into repeated narrow areas. Old ones that are exposed to the surface are called dike swarms but when buried or still active the surface is a faulted rift zone terrain, or if it us very productive then a line of fissure vents and cones.
Most maps draw them as being distinct, but in real life the boundaries are pretty vague.
Basically, Sundhnjukur is a fissure swarm, so is Fagradalsfjall. Dikes from Fagradalsfjall wont intrude towards and erupt at Sundhnjukur. Grimsvotn ad Bardarbunga are also on different fissure swarms, and dont intrude dikes into each other. This only really applies to dikes though, sills can theoretically ignore this, although im not sure of any examples this has actually happened obviously. Hector would know better.
Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes
Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes, didn’t want to write it out too many times … 😉
Krisuvik noisy today, two M3s. Perhaps the stress has finally released enough and Sundhnukar to allow intrusion into Krisuvik?
https://m.soundcloud.com/neucosa/1-hour-of-ambient-fantasy
So beautyful really around 1 hour of otherwordly soundscapes: of course it cannot be anything else than Iceland 🇮🇸 it mirrors Icelands mysterious, dark otherwordly landscapes exactly. I dont know what my favorite section is of this track is but it does reminds me of a cloudy mysterious summer day at Thorsmörk or Laki lava fields, the lava moss emerlad green and dark cloud rags hangs over the table mountains 16:57 – 19:53 is very beautyful but all parts are just as stunning
Icelands mysterious volcano – glacial enchanted landscapes have fascinated me since a small child its almost goth during a rainy november day at Myradalssandur looking like some gothic horror, high fantasy or dark sci-fi film or something like that. Im free resident in Iceland as Scandinavian so I really dont want to miss this oppurtinities, its where I wants to be. A person that likes Icelands landscapes as much as I does is called an Icelandophiliac learning Icelandic will be a brutal grinder, hopres its possible even. A cloudy summer day or a cloudy winter day at Iceland brings the most otherwordly scenery
https://pics.craiyon.com/2023-10-14/cda8e58873f54aa8850f56be4f1bcfe0.webp
These are the best winter conditions in Iceland for many with camera. Its AI but gives some sense of an ideal winter day for me woud be near Katlas coast for and it is for many photographers these light conditions are the ultimate dream. For myself indeed it was exactly like this during my first visit in winter… season.. only the Aleutian islands are the only other place where souch stark volcano- glacial landscapes exists in any abundance …
This is often the reality. This was my arrival on my third visit, first in winter.
https://ps.avalonlightphotoart.co.uk/gallery-image/Southern-and-Southeastern-Iceland/G0000ogMTN8J3eFo/I0000aCzitxjh3Qo/C0000zAI7ztY9IK4
And the difference a day (or hour) makes.
https://ps.avalonlightphotoart.co.uk/gallery-image/Southern-and-Southeastern-Iceland/G0000ogMTN8J3eFo/I0000YeWRsCGoMCc/C0000zAI7ztY9IK4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zloJ_yptWU0
Youtube version since the other page can be issues with use: fits iceland perfectky
Significant swarm at St. Barbara, Terceira, azores.
Who knows, maybe we ll get a tourist sized eruption one day?
I like it how shallow it is!
https://www.ipma.pt/en/geofisica/sismicidade for those who wish to take a look.
thank you. Civisa shows location better on map, but doesn’t indicate depth.
http://www.ivar.azores.gov.pt/paginas/sismicidade.aspx
Katla is a bit noisy today. A very shallow M3.6 quake, probably indicating hydrothermal activity. There have also been glacier floods in the recent months. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqeFFBA5uMM
Today earthquakes at Bardarbunga are more shallow than Grimsvötn:
Today 2.5 km deep at Bardarbunga; 5.7 km at Grimsfjall. Do the earthquakes of Grimsfall apply to the top side of the magma chamber?
Was there 2014-2015 a real possibility for an explosive caldera eruption in Bardarbunga’s central volcano? There was fear in the media that something like this was going to happen. Also the subsidence of the caldera caused public fear that water and magma may meet each other and do a big phreatomagmatic eruption.
Did the central volcano historically do explosive eruptions or do they usually only happen in the Loki-Fögrufjöll area?
Bárdarbunga does do explosive caldera eruptions, just not the big full caldera ignimbrite type. Really big caldera explosions happen when the ring fault is outward dipping so that when the top drops down into the magma chamber, it simultaneously widens the pathway to the surface and adds extra pressure to the magma chamber from the weight of the roof pressing down. This is not how Bárdarbunga operates. Instead, BB does its collapses in a piston style. The ring fault is near vertical and will act as a seal. No, or very little, magma can reach the surface through the ring fault, and if it does, there’s still no big explosion.
I think the biggest chance of getting a Bárdarbunga eruption from the ring fault is when the system is inflating like now. These M5 quakes are caused by the ring fault slipping, but pushing a vertical ring fault up is not as easy as having it drop down. Some of the larger quakes probably create inward dipping cone sheets instead. These are the ones that have intense swarms of aftershocks from magma intruding into the cone sheet, and they do have a chance of reaching the surface. The 1996 quake was probably such a cone sheet and it did erupt very briefly after the Gjálp eruption. I believe that a cone sheet intrusion at Bárdarbunga’s SW ring fault changed the regional stress in a way that caused trigger earthquakes at Gjálp that in turn helped Grímsvötn erupt through Gjálp.
An eruption from an inward dipping cone sheet will seal itself shut as the roof sets back down when magma leaves the chamber, so most such eruptions will be small. Bárdarbunga does maximum VEI4. In the last 1000 years, BB has had 22 confirmed phreatomagmatic explosive eruptions, but only one out of four of those eruptions left an ash layer outside of the ice sheet.
The risk for a large caldera explosion in 2014-2015 was probably very small, but the effect would have been very dramatic. Making models and preparations for the potential jökulhlaup scenarios was the only right thing to do, but it added a bit to the media hype.
I should add that parts of this is my own interpretation of how BB operates and should be treated as a bit speculative.
That is more or less what I think about it too. Bardarbunga is the plume volcano, it gets lots of very hot and primitive basalt. Its very similar in composition to Hawaii. Grimsvotn isnt like this, its a lot more like Katla than it is like Bardarbunga, and though most of the explosive nature is because of erupting through a lake at both volcanoes, without it the eruptions would probably still be mildly explosive, maybe like those of Askja which also has similar magma. MgO content of Askja, Grimsvotn and Katla is similar to the stuff erupted on Kilaueas lower ERZ that has sat there for a few decades or more. Bardarbunga seems to be much more direct. Either that or the mantle composition is weird but that seems a unnecessary speculation to go down…
Vatnajokull has 40 km thick crust, similar to some continental stuff, it makes sense magma would get stuck on the way.
I think it is the other way around. Grimsvotn is closest to the rifting zone, is the youngest and has easiest access to magma (but no good place to store it..). Bardarbunga is older. It has moved away from from the rift as part of the plate it is sitting on (Grimsvotn is still sitting on the fence on that one), and over time as it moves further it will become one of the ancients. Grimsvotn’s problem is that the low stress in the rift allows magma to leak out along it, reducing the supply. Bardarbunga is far enough that it has a monopoly in its magma feeding zone.
That isnt consistent with the data Albert. It also isnt clear how old Grimsvotn or Bardarbunga as we see them now are, both are probably pretty old. Far as I can find there isnt actually any data on the ages of either. The only time I have seen any age quoted anywhere is on here.
The plate boundary goes from Krafla to Askja through Bardarbunga, and down to Hekla before it then turns up to go through Reykjanes. Katla and Grimsvotn are pretty completely a part of Europe, and the infrequency that either of them rifts compared to Bardarbunga and Hekla (the boundary volcanoes) is pretty evident to the lack of strain there.
https://i.imgur.com/mtLdou5.jpeg
This is a map of the bedrock elevation underneath Vatnajokul, with the gravity data as colours (from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264370706000664). I have added a red line showing the location of the dip in the contours, which I interpret as the centre of the spreading ridge. (The rift should roughly look like two parallel ridges with a depression in between, like a graben. A hot spot will complicate the structure but it does seem to fit this description.) The rift is not the same as the location of the long dikes: that depends on their origin and they can run either way of the centre, although both Holuhraun and Laki did follow approximately this line.
This would put Grimsvotn closest.
Bardarbunga is the only volcano that nearly crosses the whole island (Iceland) from southern ocean (Selfoss) to northern ocean (Laugar) with lava flows and makes it a big version of Reykjanes Peninsula … The lava flows of Bardarbunga both pass Krafla in the north and Hekla and Hengill in the south.
https://icelandicvolcanos.is/#
Only Askja has also a very long system, but not so long towards the south. Bardarbunga is the only big cross country volcano.
Only the slow spreading ridges with low magmatic activity have a rift valley at their summit, fast ridges or very productive areas are lines of fissure vents, and Iceland is probably the most productive mid ocean ridge, and Vatnajokull is probably also the most productive part of Iceland… North of Vatnajokull there is no rift valley at the spreading center, only numerous lava shields and at least two central volcanoes. South of Vatnajokull is a long fissure swarm with neither but it is still not a depression, and then we get to Katla and Torfajokull and Hekla,all massive elevated central volcanoes again. Reykjanes also shows this, elevated fissure volcanoes and no rift valley until a few thousand km south of Iceland. Only between the Reykjanes volcanoes and Langjokull is there a rift valley where magma supply is slow.
My assumption forever basically is that valley between Grimsvotn and Bardarbunga is from glacial erosion and the weight of Vatnajokull gives a preference for major rifting events to happen mostly beyond its edge. It is where Holuhraun went, twice or more. If Vatnajokull wasnt there it would probably have been filled with lava 10 years ago. Its not the rift center specifically. Even if it is though, its clear which volcano lays claim to it.
This is a map of the magnetic striping in the region. It is from http://www.lso.is/Magn-vefur/index.htm (and note theit caveats). I have indicated the approximate locations of Grimsvoth and Bardarbunga
One may guess that the two blue stripes either sides are the previous magnetic orientation, and that these are moving apart. The spreading centre will be midway between. That places it between Bardarbunga and Grimsvotn, pretty much along the path that the Holuhraun dike took – and I think Laki as well, just going the other way. On this map, the two volcanoes would be about equidistant from the centre, perhaps Grimsvotn marginally closer but that depends on how accurate my positioning was! So yes, I expect that the central depression is the rift – elevated together with the rest of the Vatnajokul bulge, but lower than than the bedrock peaks.
The magnetic stripes are broad and probably not very accurate at this scale. Maybe over geological time the plate boundary is at this location but in short timescales it is at Bardarbunga. Even with Laki the amount of lava erupted by Bardarbunga is much more and it rifts more often, as well as having primitive magma erupting more directly. Holuhraun was very hot, Laki was more evolved. But lava flows of similar magnitude to Laki erupted by Bardarbunga still have the primitive composition. Laki was a rare event from Grimsvotn but big rifting eruptions are normal for Bardarbunga.
I do wonder, maybe Grimsvotn seems to be more capable now than it was historically because all the deep spurce is feeding the caldera now and not whatever intrusion went on to form Laki. 20 km3 of magma at 0.05 km3/year is going to take 400 years, during which time Grimsvotn itself would be rather subdued.
Thank-you for your detailed reply, Tomas!
So caldera collapse at Bardarbunga happens usually gentle without significant magma-tephra activity. 2014 the publically perceived threat of an explosive eruption was historically close to the experience of Eyjafjallajökull 2010 and Grimsvötn 2011. So the public overestimation of the explosive outcome 2014-2015 was perhaps in part influenced by the renewed perception of the danger of Iceland’s volcanoes.
Is the chance for an eruption from the ring fault now on average level or would you consider it above average? The last explosive eruption of Bardarbunga 1910 was at Loki-F. subsystem. How many of the 22 during last 1000 years happened there?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loki-F%C3%B6grufj%C3%B6ll
As Tomas said, it was listed as a possible scenario, but a greater likelihood was listed at the time as a phreatomagmatic e plosion from the dyke before it extended beyond the glacier. There were two probable sub-glacial eruptions, but classed as small.
Yes, there was a phreatomagmatic risk in the first phase of the eruption, when the dyke went north, but it was uncertain where it would plop up. Added to this during the final stage of the Holohraun eruption and after it, the caldera collapsed. There were images that illustrated how the caldera subsided. Some feared that this might cause magma to meet glacier/groundwater somewhere and do a big phreatomagmatic explosion. Maybe something like Kilauea 1790, 1924 and 2018.
… and f.e. the recent Anak Krakatau collapse explosion.
Another great article on my favorite hotspot – thank you! Now, if we can only get a tourist-scale eruption in the Azores I can die happy.
Heh, not sure it will work, but a nice selfie!
He’s just repaired Geonet’s Raoul Island webcam a few hours ago. Raoul Island is arguably one of the remotest volcanoes on the planet, so getting there would be a fun trip.
Looks like Geonet scrub their stored webcam jpegs after a few days, the photo I had managed to insert has now evaporated! Ah well.
GPS station on Kilaueas ERZ east of Pu’u O’o, showing uplift now further down the rift.
geodesy.unr.edu/tsplots/IGS14/IGS14/TimeSeries/RKAR.png
The station seems to be moving southwest, and is lifting up. Which would suggest magma is accumulating east of this point.
Still unsure why HVO is saying the ERZ isnt inflating anymore, all the stations there are lifting up as quick as before the eruption, with a lull while the vent was active.
Thats very nice indeed… I wants a New Puu Oo or at least a New Mauna Ulu.. I guess we will have to wait for some time more for the stoorage areas to fill up but with souch high magmatic infuxes as Kilauea haves now its just a matter of time, Kilauea is on completely other supply moods now than it was in 1980 s and 1970 s : ) its the magmatic stoorage areas there thats pumped up and with luck we will get a flow of ”liquid aluminium” soon : )
I dont think it will take very long to at least have the potential to start a new long eruption, it already erupted for a year non stop in 2022.
Thing is, the collapse of Halemaumau was 0.8 km3, the total lava volume was 1.5 km3, so the other 0.7 km3 was elastic deformation of the summit and middle ERZ. Well, in only 1 year all of the summit GPS except those on the south rim of the caldera, they all overshot the 2018 level. And now the middle ERZ is on track to be almost completely refilled by the end of this year in only a total of 5 months since it was woken up. So, 0.7 km3 in 15 months, or about 0.5 km3 a year supply rate since last September.
Really, filling the ERZ may not really be important, it has already erupted once and had at least 3 intrusions. Its just about how far magma can get. Pu’u O’o formed at 750 meters elevation when Halemaumau was at 1070 meters elevation, now it is at 150 meters lower, so keeping that ratio would see a vent at about 600 meters elevation, where the 1977 eruption was. So potentially Kalapana might be in trouble again unfortunately. As a side, this is actually just about where the RKAR station is moving away from, so maybe keep an eye on this one. I think there is meant to be a magma body under this area historically.
If what you and other commenters are saying, I think Pahoa residents should be looking over their shoulder
Yes, although it isnt as likely for lava to flow that way as it is to go south.
One thing that is speculative but seems to be consustent so far, the early episodic stage of a long eruption lime this seems to be much higher frequency at the summit and more separated further away. Kilauea Iki had gaps of a day between fountains a few hours long. Mauna Ulu lasted longer erupting, but with longer gaps. Pu’u O’o had gaps of a month or more between eruptions that lasted a full day at huge eruption rate. If this keeps up, then a shield further east of Pu’u O’o might go even longer with consequently bigger eruptions. So we are potentially looking at years of episodic high intensity eruptions, and its likely the flows will advance rapidly into the ocean. Most of the over 1 km3 lava field of Heiheiahulu is a’a, only the last layer is tube fed pahoehoe and lavalake overflows.
I also just noticed, the host site has got a complete 25 year record of the GPS at UWEV. It puts the recent uplift into perspective against the 2018 collapse really well.
It has on average been lifted up by 10cm a year. CRIM hasnt reached its 2018 point but it fell 2 meters and has gone up by 1.2 meters, half of that in the last year.
What’s the red curve?
I dont know, I presume it is an average of the dot points but it doesnt really do that very well.
Found an explanation on this page: http://geodesy.unr.edu/explanationofplots.php
“The red curve on the plots is an estimate of a model that fits the data.”
The models they use are probably not meant for GPS data near very active volcanoes.
I think they try to fit deformation to a linear trend of tectonic movement and sudden deformation by earthquakes in the area. This might work for other places but obviously doesn’t fit the data here.
Thats very exciting indeed and an open vent at lower elevation woud perhaps last longer than one at higher elevations, as magma wants to flow downhill without backing upwards and getting heavy, Mauna Ulu likey died due to decrease of magmatic supply combined with the magma column inside getting too tall in the end its hard to know. Puu Oo is tought to have become overpressurized by the sourge of supply in may 2018 and magma rushed down the ERZ and allowed the Puu Oo magma to drain further downhill collapsing its shallow plumbing column more severly so than earlier collpases there, while harmed alot the pre – existing magma chambers under there surivived 2018 and undervent inflation post Leilani time when the rift had influx, Puu Oo and Mauna Ulu and the smaller shields there sits in areas of pre exisiting rift magma stoorage in chain of craters areas thats in itself intresting. Had the Leilani event been even more voluminous its possible that Puu Oo and other craters woud have collapsed even more
It wont take long at all to do something fun.. as you say with a current magma supply influx 4 to 6 times the historical avarge we haves a real monster volcano that can form whole magma chamber complexes in just a matter of months! while other stale volcanoes can take 100 s even 1000 s of years to do so. The magma comming in now into ERZ will flow into pre – existing sills, dyke swarms, rift stoorages rather than making something new, but Kilauea will likey do very fun stuff now when the magma supply is so very high, we have a very diffirent volcano today for soure than during the early days of 1900 s when supply was very low compared to today, Kilaueas supply is always rather high but now we haves a historical record flux so hopes it keeps going like this because that will have an effect on eruption intensity, volume compared to earlier Kilauea rift eruptions when supply was lower. I guess this coud be a deep magmatic sourge comming from pahala source it takes some time for magma to surface and who knows how long it will be like this I guess decades it coud go on like this. Kilauea will resurface itself in just a few centuries if stuff gets really crazy
Looks pretty good for a potential with a Puu Oo 2.0 in the near future .. Im getting daydreams of radial shiney pahoehoe flows covering the lower easit rift zone for miles all way down to Kapoho , a big broad shield topped with lava lakes kind of like a bigger version of Kupaianaha vent but eruption rates woud be bigger in m3 if Kilauea goes into shield mode with current supply rates. The old ʻAilāʻau summit pahoehoe eruption is tought to have erupted at higher supply rates than Puu Oo. It takes a very long time for an eruption to form something like Iceland shield at slow pahoehoe rates. Another fun possibilty with higher supply than historical avarge is massive rift flank eruptions like 1955 just bigger looking like something bigger than Wolf 2015 with massive lines fountains, Kilauea really can make enormous fissure lines some in 60 s being almost laki sized in lenght, a New Leilani is also possible in the near future but not now with souch high supply when magma keeps accumulating at fast speeds as its doing now …
I wants to visit the Big Island more but haves no time for now
I guess, to take a guess on when things could be ready to erupt this way. The GPS in the middle ERZ are all shooting up rapidly, at current rate they will be recovered to 2018 level in November. After that, I guess the area east of Pu’u O’o would fill, and assuming it is a similar volume area as the magma chamber under Napau and Makaopuhi, it might take another few months. So maybe next February or March.
That makes a lot of assumptions though, but still I think there is a reasonable chance of a new shield vent starting next year.
Here is the GPS uplift of KERZ station, the closest one to the last eruption and where uplift was centered. Even during the eruption it kept going up at reduced rate and then shot up again afterwards and still going.
Why HVO is saying the inflation of the middle ERZ has stopped, I dont know, all the stations in the area are going to the moon…
Seems to be a swarm of deep quakes at the summit of Kilauea. 8-10 km deep, and there have been quakes at this depth persistently since the last eruption.
Do anyone knows how cold the most sheltered part of Grimsvötns caldera wall coud get during the shortest winter day of the year and during a major polar outbreak?. The calderas interior its where cold air coud pool and loose energy due to radiation making it likey the coldest place in entire Iceland I woud guess. I seen webcam shots from there from winters and looks deeply frozen, very arctic for soure. Icecaps tend to form their own climates and Vatnajökull is large enough for being a borderline Ice- cap climate even if its mild there compared to Antartica that can reach – 96 c. Vatnajökull while its mild compared to Greenland and Antartica in winter can still be classifyed as a borderline icecap climate …
Grimsvötn must be rather frigid in the depths of winter during a polar january outbreak when polar air is present rather than the usual atlantic air the volcano looks cold enough. Holuhraun also gets pretty frigid as so does Askja in the depths of winter
Askja is another cold hole in Iceland they got incredibley cold during the 2022 winter
Stromboli: https://www.ct.ingv.it/index.php/monitoraggio-e-sorveglianza/segnali-in-tempo-reale/video-sorveglianza-vulcanica-isole-eolie
On Reykjanes Peninsula the Fagradalsfjall and Krysuvik systems have had more earthquakes last days. Is Fagradalsfjall going to erupt again in near future or is it going to do a sill to Krysuvik as it did in Grindavik?
Deformation at Keilier and MOHA (close to Kleifarvatn) show even or slightly negative tendency. This would mean that the earthquakes there are either tectonic or subsidence earthquakes because of the continuing outflow of magma.
The quakes at Fagradalsfjall have been going on since the start of the Svartsengi eruptions. In the weeks right before the large quakes started in October – the initial tectonic ones that created space for the rift which in November gave birth to the dyke – that exact area that is now outlined by the quakes at Fagradalsfjall had been inflating at depth. All eyes were at Fagradalsfjall, anticipating the next eruption in the series. Instead, the inflation at Fagradalsfjall stopped and Svartsengi started inflating rapidly.
There’s a great probability that Fagradalsfjall is the deep source of the magma and that the current Fagradalsfjall quakes are related to the deep magma transport. As long as it’s going to the Svartsengi sill complex, I think the probability of an eruption at Fagradalsfjall is small.
Krýsuvík is another story. It’s a high temperature area, just like Svartsengi, and might have a similar structure in the shallow crust. A lot of stress has been transferred to that part of the Reykjanes fault from the repeated dykes at Fagradalsfjall and Svartengi. It might just take another couple of M5 quakes to set things in motion there.
Personally, I think there’s another alternative that has a higher probability to happen. As Svartsengi eventually runs out of available space to dump magma into the rift at Sundhnúkur, it will continue to use the same sill complex, but erupt through Eldvörp instead. The sills stretch over in that direction. If the time between eruptions at Svartsengi becomes too long, and the pressure becomes too high, I think that’s the most logical place for it to go. Look out for M5 quakes and intense swarms in that direction.
That is some “good” insight to say to the least, but the big question is when that’ll be? I do agree with Hector’s assertion that this series will end with a bang, or the largest eruption will be its last. That’s another question: how big is the last eruption going to be? If it’s 100 million m³, then we might have a few more eruptions before it ends. 150 million m³, more eruptions over a few years. That’s just my little prediction, but it could go anywhere from here.
If it does eventually move to Eldvörp, it’ll be less of a threat but maybe moreso to the Svartsengi powerplant. Either way, it’ll still remain a threat in the future.
I’ve looked again at Keilir station: http://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/reykjanes.html
During last Svartsengi/Sundhnukur eruptions in June and August Keilir had small peaks of deformation (~1cm). Maybe this reveals a shortterm magmatic backwater effect in Keilir’s (Fagradalfjall) support system for Svartsengi. Outside the times of Sundhnukur’s eruption Keilir had an even development since April. December to April deformation was negative, maybe an indicator for feeding of the sill.
Would Krysuvik be fed by Fagradalsfjall’s Moho-crust system or would it use an independent system? Until 2021 Fagradalsfjall was seen as a subsystem of Krysuvik. 2023-2024 show that at least Sundhnukur acts like a subsystem of Fagradalsfjall. We don’t know how many intrusions happened below Fagradalsfjall during Medieval period. Maybe there were failed eruptions that preceded the Krysuvik activity.
Keilir is a bit too far north to show the inflation/deflation. You can pick up traces of the tectonic movements, but I don’t think you can draw any reliable conclusions about magma movements.
A more interesting station is Selatangi. It is close enough to Fagradalsfjall to show the inflation under Fagradalsfjall, but far enough away from Svartsengi to only pick up small changes due to the sill inflation/deflation.
You can clearly see the deflation during the 2021 eruption, which stopped in September. Inflation started again after the eruption ended. The Meradalir eruption in August 2022 only caused minor deflation, but inflation didn’t pick up again until April 2023. During the Litli-Hrútur eruption, June-August 2023, it deflated. Inflation picked up again, but stopped after the October quakes. The November dyke caused a small jump upwards, but that was tectonic.
After that, the up-component has remained at the same level. Some small oscillations can be seen and they do correlate with the Svartsengi inflation/deflation.
If Fagradalsfjall had still been inflating, it would have been picked up by this station. I think the small fluctuations are just remote effects of the Svartsengi deformations. There are stations closer to Fagradalsfjall, but those are also closer to Svartengi and are completely dominated by the Svartsengi signals. My interpretation is that all new magma that enters the system currently goes straight to Svartsengi.
Your question about Krýsuvík is very interesting and I don’t think anyone knows the answer. The majority of the deeper quakes are in fact under Fagradalsfjall and the high temperature fields at Krýsuvík are at a similar distance to Fagradalsfjall as Svartsengi, so it is indeed plausible.
Link disappeared. Probably the http thing. Here’s the link without the http qualifier: brunnur.vedur.is/gps/timeseries/STAN-plate-full.png
During Medieval Fires Krysuvik had in fact two distinct sessions: 1st Afastapahraun (a lava long field crossing the whole peninsula between Fagra and Kleifarvatn) around 900. 2nd at the end the Krysuvik Fires 1151-1188. A break of 200 years. It is uncertain (for me) whether the Afstapahraun belonged to the type of Fagradalsfjall’s eruptions or to Svartsengi’s.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Afstapahraun/@63.9883419,-22.1453212,1932m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x48d60fe7950c44e1:0x17749004e083b0d1!8m2!3d63.9883333!4d-22.135!16s%2Fg%2F11clszvc68?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkzMC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
X6.7 solar flare just now. Awaiting CME data
7.1
Just about three hours ago as I type (UTC 22:20 hrs vs UTC 01:13 hrs now). I don’t know how long the blast takes to arrive. Space is big though, so there’s no certainty Earth will be in the zone of effect.
https://www.spaceweather.com/
CME doesn’t look that strong in my opinion.
Another one today. X9.05
oof
Stronger CME this time another G5 storm?
Forecasts have it at G3. Should make some pretty colors.
Big volcanic eruptions can act as historical markers for a important political/cultural period/event. F.e.:
– Vesuvius 79 a few years after fall of Jerusalem’s temple
– The mysterious eruption during Justian’s rule (6th century)
– Öræfajökull during Black Death
– Laki 1783 as (early) beginning of the crisis that led to French Revolution
– Tambora 1815 as sign for the end of Napoleon’s rule (it happened during his Hundred Days rule on France)
– Krakatoa/Krakatau 1883 at the peak of global European colonization UK’s Empire
– Lassen Peak 1915 and Katla 1918 during WWI
– Last Vesuvius eruption 1944 during WWII
– Hekla 1947 beginning of Cold War
– Mount St. Helens 1980 beginning of Reagan/Thatcher decade and of the Soviet’s decline
– Pinatubo 1991 end of Cold War
– Etna July-August 2001 before September 11 terror attacks
Heh, that would be a great lead-in to a discussion about correlation and causation (for people with stronger statistical chops than me).
Big volcanic eruptions are publically perceived historical events that are accidentally embedded in other surrounding events. But they can add a “volcanic note” to an important political or cultural event.
You missed a few big ones
https://www.volcanocafe.org/volcanohistology-when-eruptions-make-a-difference/
I’m sure there were more eruptions during that period, or are we being a tad selective?
There probably were more events. The longer an important historical period/event lasted, the higher is the probability that a volcanic eruption happens in it or close to it.
Big volcanic eruptions often happen during different cultural and technical periods. Their observation and perception is each time a bit different. If we look at big Icelandic or Hawaiian eruptions, we can see well the technical progress over time.
Any thoughts guys
I realise it’s Ecuador, but where abouts is that station?
ECEN at Cerro Negro de Mayasquer
The codas seem short, to my untrained eye looks more like hydrothermal activity than magma. But seismic is not my area of expertise.
A new tephra layer in southern Lake Titicaca Basin might have came from Tambo Quemado eruption. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09596836241275000
Not unlikely, it’s just a matter of sampling Tambo Quemado chemistry now. Ticsani could also be a candidate, though.
First Magmatic eruption in a couple of years at Taal, still small
Meanwhile Mount Merapi reminds us of is still there……https://jakartaglobe.id/news/mount-merapi-erupts-with-21-lava-flows-alert-level-raised-to-iii
How close was Askja 1876 to this Grimsvötn scenario? I think Askja 1876 was the “biggest case” eruption of Askja. But it involved silicic magmas that are absent – as far as I know – in Grimsvötn and Vatnajökull.
Grimsvotn can do felsic magma but it is not as prolific as Katla or Askja
https://skemman.is/bitstream/1946/5993/1/BAOphd.pdf
1876 was a high end VEI 5 so I’d say it’s a very good example of what I believe is possible at Grimsvotn
All I saw in that is ‘only basaltic magmas are known from these three systems’.
I sourced the wrong study and confused some information on Thordaryna’s deposits for Grimsvotn. Bardarbunga has had felsic eruptions before so I don’t know why they’d say that.
https://www.vulkane.net/en/volcanoes/bardarbunga/bardarbunga.html
There was some rhyolite erupted by Torfajokull when Veidivotn erupts, but that is a separate eruption to Bardarbunga, two volcanoes using a single rift. There are a few maybe active central calderas near Bardarbunga that have rhyolite but not Bardarbunga itself as far as I could see on the maps.
The eruption history of Iceland mentions several eruption of Vatnajökull, where we can’t reöate them to a certain volcano. So it is possible that there were eruptions at locations that we haven’t observed recently.
I only just discovered Vonarskard the other day when it was mentioned. This is between Bardabunga and Tungnafellsjokull basically on the rift. It is likely strongly affected by rift tectonics. This erupted subglacial rhyolites.
Vatnajökull hosts many volcanoes and subsystems. So it seems possible that there are forgotten evolved magma chambers. One example is Esjufjöll:
Magma type: Basaltic (alkali basalt) and silicic (rhyolite, minor)
The Icelanders want to build another airport, but there’s a tiny tiny problem…
If lava went over this once, there is just as much chance it will again” (RÚV, 3 Oct)
Somehow I don’t think the airport is going to be built any time soon, especially while these irritating eruptions keep on happening every few months.
Well, some sort of secondary airport might be a good idea as nowhere is that safe in that area. For the next hundred years, anyway.
The current airport is perfectly safe. It is the road that is causing concerns. Why not rebuild the road as an elevated one? Then the lava can flow underneath while traffic continues. It is a lot cheaper than a new airport. Experience shows that Icelanders are attracted to lava as a moth to light, and will be no problem with driving above it.
OK, makes sense. Which road is likely to be blocked, the one heading south east?
Surely a new crossing eastwards could be made off the road heading north well away from current activity?
It’s the main Reykjanesbraut from Reykjavik to Keflavik, roughly east-west along the north coast. The last lot of Lavender stopped about 2.5 km from tge road. If Krisuvik went off, it would probably be in more danger, but that would be in the same vicinity as the presumed, proposed site for a new airport.
The main future threat for the airport will be tephra from Surtseyan eruptions of Reykjanes and Eldey. Maybe they need advice from Catania.
They have snowploughs..
Iceland appears to be the only country where a road can change its topography over the space of weeks! January it’s flat. By June there’s a significant climb to a plateau and then back down again. September, there’s no road.
All in a day’s work for them.
535/540 catastrophe culprit may be Askja. See tersely summarised tephra analysis at deserted settlement of West Heslerton by UK’s LANDSCAPE RESEARCH CENTRE LIMITED in company report here, filing dated 30 May 2024, page 3 https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/01852824/filing-history …presumably there will be a publication in due course…
One might have expected that this tephra would have been found at Askja itself as well? Not a trace.. Report written by a chatbot, perhaps? With a trumpian attitude to accuracy?
It was mentioned on Digging for Britain, showing the tephra found under tge microscope. However, they date mentioned in the programme changed and when I tried to do some dighing after airing, I couldn’t find anything.
Well, the guy who made the Askja ident was Simon Blockley, this guy https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379114004405 will be quite intrigued if he is in fact the slapdash idiot you think he might be. But no publication yet, so maybe…
Normally the scientific papers have a lot of caveats and mention the uncertainties, which in this case would involve both the date and the origin. There are very few eruptions which have left notable tephra layers in soil in Britain. You get some from swamps and perhaps lakes. I don’t know any of the details but would imagine that this identification was listed as a possibility, someone else picked it up and put it in the company report. These things happen.
Wouldnt be surprised if Askja had an eruption at that time but Icelandic eruptions arent explosive enough to be world breakers. Even the climate effects of Laki arent very certain.
Askja also is a rifting volcano, its calderas form through lateral magma drain with shallow magma destabilization being expected but not a cause, and only in 1875 and a huge event about 10,000 years ago was the rift sufficiently activated. Nothing 1500 years ago.
540 AD eruption has been linked to Ilopango, and to Rabaul. Not sure it has been linked to anywhere with certainty but Iceland isnt on my list of places to pull of something like that.
The Wikipedia List of Iceland’s eruptions mentions doubt about the assumption that the tephra came from any Icelandic volcano: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_volcanic_eruptions_in_Iceland#Common_era_(CE),_Anno_Domini_(AD)
Maybe it was an Alaska eruption like Novarupta 1912, but larger?
Simon Blockley was on UK TV saying confidently it was Askja tephra. Not exactly a peer reviewed forum, but a commitment of sorts, all the same. So I suppose next we just wait for publication, details and debate.
Am I correct in thinking central European flights now not only go to Keflavik but also Akreyri? Pretty sure there’s an airport on the east coast too.
https://www.windy.com/sv/-Temperatur-temp?temp,64.965,-17.824,7
Winter is comming in Iceland… cold winds and bone chilling humidity souch weathers for months makes Icelands subpolar oceanic climate in reykjavik one of the worlds most unpleasant, mostly cold rain for most of the year but they gets a mild summer at the coast. While it maybe not the best weather, but I stil wants to live there.
In Iceland, a new seismometer (called HIT) has been installed in Hítárdalur (hot-river-valley), near the recent quakes in the Ljósufjöll system. This will increase the accuracy and lower the threshold for reliably detected earthquakes in the area. It was installed in the end of September and we can already see a couple of <M0.5 quakes have been detected.
https://vedur.is/um-vi/frettir/nyr-jardskjalftamaelir-i-hitardal
During September Mount Adams produced a lifesign, but certainly not a sign for the VEI7 eruption Tallis hopes for https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/news/monitoring-stations-detect-small-magnitude-earthquakes-mount-adams-september
Even if Mount Adams erupts, the eruption would predominantly be effusive (Hawaiian type) with only minor explosive activity. The main threat by Mount Adams for people are lahars. Basaltic to Andesitic magma.
It’d still be nice to have an eruption on the continent but I wouldn’t bet on it.
It wouldnt be hawaiian type if it happened on Mt Adams itself, it would be a peleean type like Merapi, which is a basaltic andesite volcano. Its average magma composition, the magma is actually dacite with mafic crystals. This is the same as St Helens, which apart from the eruption of Ape Cave that was really hawaiian type, the effusive eruptions are domes.
Most of the effusive eruptions in the Cascades seem to be more strombolian type too, lots if a’a lava and cinder cones, rather than pahoehoe shields. Although the lava can still be fluid and flow a long way.
Quite long repose times between eruptions, or at least long enough to partially fractionate.
Mt Adams also has a large volcanic field surrounding it that seems t produce leaky basaltic flows.
They describe the eruption history: “Typical behavior of Mount Adams has been primarily effusive (lava flows) and seldom explosive. … Over the last 12,000 years, there have been four lava flows originating on the apron of the volcano and two vents along its south ridge. The lava flows have typically travelled only a few miles from their vents.”
Two fairly significant tremors right under Bárðarbunga:
A M3.9 at 2.7 km and a M3.7 at 3.0 km, plus a M2.6 at a depth of 2.7 km. Sounds a bit like pressure is cracking the rock above the magma chamber.
Also Askja’s northern part has had some quakes. TANC station on the northern caldera rim has risen a bit recently: http://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/askja.html
Maybe something happening on the northern ring fault?
Kilauea still having persistent deep earthquakes under its caldera and just south. SDH is also going up now just a bit, so either the ERZ isnt getting fed now or the supply is high enough to get past that.
UWEV has gone up 15 microradians out of 40 that it fell in the last eruption, and in 2.5 weeks. So still going for the next eruption in November. The middle ERZ is at least most recently still going up rapidly.
Really boring around here… no new fun developments with volcanoes
Even a VEI3 looks rare now …
https://3d.map.is/?view=505485%2C40000%2C600100%2C503341%2C490000%2C0
Fun stuff Iceland in higher 3D detail than Google Earth
What’s this signal seen on the permanent seismometer on Mount Adam’s yesterday?
?fileTS=1728232829
Weird signals tend to be surface noise unless they show in two stations identically.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-adams
Looks to be only one seismograph though at Mount Adam’s (unless if there are Raspberry stations there…).
Bárðarbunga having a busy week, first a string of M3s and then M5+ and now a 4.5 (might still be adjusted). Any thoughts? I know we’re not due something there for decades or centuries, so could it be tectonically driven rifting? Complete amateur here, sorry for the wild theorising 😅
Probably inflation pushing the plug up. The 3+ were on the south side, this on on the north east.
They’re getting shallower too. The M4.5 is 1.8 km depth, plus a M2.7 a few seconds later at 2.7 km depth. That’s from IMO’s earthquakes page.
No M5+ this week, that was a month ago, but there has been quite a lot of activity lately. I think it looks similar to the activity in the 1970s, when there were five M5+ and two M4.7 in the four year period 1974-1977. See https://jokull.jorfi.is/articles/jokull2014.64/jokull2014.64.061.pdf
These quakes happen on the caldera ring fault. The pair on Saturday were on the southern part and the one on Sunday was on the northern part. The large quakes have strong non-double couple moment tensors and the smaller ones indicate reverse motion on inward dipping faults. During the collapse in 2014-2015 the motion was the opposite and the focal mechanisms were inward dipping normal faults. This strongly suggests that the quake sequences before 2014 and after 2015 are due to inflation of the caldera and that these quakes happen on an inward dipping ring fault when the block inside the caldera is being pushed up.
That M4.5 has been upgraded to M5.0 now.
Ok thanks everyone for your replies. Interesting times!
I hate to bring up the topic of the cameras again, but I’m having problems with the mbl Hagafell one. Again. It gave a nice view of some auroras yesterday. Today after about five Iceland time I kept finding it stuck with a buffering wheel, even with all of my other internet-dependent things working fine (including other Youtube streams). Seeking to a random spot and then clicking “live” again fixed it, only for it to get stuck again by the next time I looked in on it.
No changes to any relevant settings here (either networking, or with the browser, or with Youtube) since before; but there was a temporary internet outage here earlier that seems to have been what triggered it. When it was resolved, everything else worked again, including other Youtube videos, but not the Hagafell stream. And the problems I’m having with that have been escalating ever since.
First, the seek-elsewhere-and-then-back-to-live thing stopped working correctly after another hour or two: when it started buffering, seeking now also broke (sometimes doing nothing and sometimes outright crashing the video to a blank black rectangle) and the only fix was to completely refresh the page. And just now the damn thing navigated off the page all by itself, while I wasn’t even in the room, and when I came to investigate why it was suddenly blaring random audio without my consent and hit the “back” button, it erroneously displayed not the video but a “Next in …” countdown thing like you sometimes get if you watch a finite video to the end. Obviously a neverending livestream isn’t ever supposed to do that. I was then able to seek to an earlier part of the stream but the “live” button will no longer work correctly. If I use it, or seek to the present, it displays a grid of ads for other videos rather than the mbl feed that it is supposed to display.
How do I fix this and get it back to working the way it was this morning? I can think of a few options, with growing amounts of inconvenience entailed:
– Delete all Youtube cookies and have to sign in again
– Restart browser, which is painfully slow and is followed by many of my open tabs behaving wonky and slow the first time they are accessed again afterward
– Restart entire machine, which is even more time-consuming and disruptive (W10 tends to botch the job of restoring my Explorer windows in particular, randomly forgetting to restore around half of them and misplacing all the rest at random screen positions).
– Reinstall browser
– Reinstall OS
I’m not particularly looking forward to having to do any of these things, but the fact that everything else is working except a single specific Youtube video gives me hope that there might be some way I can make the browser “forget” just whatever is confusing it about that one video, without indiscriminate wiping of all YT data it has stored (or more). Perhaps even a way to make it think the same video is a different video, using a differently formatted URL perhaps?
Given the fragile state it’s currently in though I’m loath to experiment with it. Does anyone here know more about YT’s inner workings than I do and know of anything specific I can try before I start deleting cookies and rebooting things?
I would suggest borrowing another computer and check whether or not it has the same problem. It sounds like you are running an overloaded browser on an old computer. Check your router: does it support modern standards?
As usual you are complaining about a problem at the source. It is nothing to do with your computer.
The mbl Hagafell camera is offline and the only two livestreams they currently have (as I type) are “Iceland volcano hotspot – seen LIVE from Þorbjorn – wide” and “Iceland Grindavík – seen LIVE from Þorbjorn – Close up”
When you click Live on a stuck stream for a time youtube silently rewinds the stream a bit and plays from there until it sticks again. Eventually it will timeout the stream or the owner may take it completely offline or stop it to fix it. When that happens by default youtube will auto-play a different video. You should be able to turn that off by hovering over a video and selecting the left most icon at the button (left of CC and settings) and click to slide it to off but that setting can reset itself especially if not signed in to youtube.
So as usual there is absolutely nothing you or we or anyone else other than mbl can do to get the stream back online. It doesn’t seem to get through to you no matter how many times told that the problem is almost always not with your computer . Nobody in the world can see the mbl Hagafell camera on youtube because it isn’t there right now.
My team runs teach support – this call would not get past the Helpdesk they would tell you:
Check your broswer is up to date.
Re-boot your computer.
Squonk’s hypothesis runs into three problems:
One, it would be brazenly wrong for mbl to do this — even if they need to perform more maintenance, why not just do the annoying “Timabundin” thing again? And why would it need three maintenance breaks in a single week anyway? It didn’t used to need work that frequently before.
Two, I simply do not see a mechanism by which a problem with my own internet connection here could escalate into a problem affecting mbl’s streams for everyone. And the problem definitely started right here, where I am, because for a while everything was offline and because a reboot of my router fixed it all — except for the mbl stream, which began to behave glitchy after I reloaded that tab after I rebooted that router.
Three, why on Earth would mbl slowly degrade the performance and reliability of the stream and “kill it by inches” over the course of a full day rather than just shut it off as fast as flipping a switch? And if it was some technical problem that was causing this gradual degradation, why didn’t they catch it in its early stages and intervene to fix it then, before it crashed things outright? They had plenty of time in which to do so — hours and hours.
Also, what became of my other comment on this sub-thread? I no longer see it for some reason.
I’ll say this again. The mbl.is Hagafell stream is not on youtube at the moment. It doesn’t matter how many times you try to convince yourself it is a problem at your end or how often you coincidentally reboot your router. Here is the current mbl.is youtube page showing current livestreams and you will see there are only two currently available and no Hagafell.
YOU WILL NEVER GET THE HAGAFELL STREAM BACK IF IT IS NOT ONLINE. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.
Please quit moaning here.
Oh and I will add, to try and be helpful, if you have a separate genuine problem where your internet connection goes down regularly and it is fixed by rebooting your router then call your ISP and report a fault so they can check your router logs.
But personally I believe it is more likely you are convincing yourself that you have issues when the problem is elsewhere as on all recent occasions when you reported a problem here it turns out that by an ASTONISHING COINCIDENCE the stream is offline at source.
No further comments on this thread please. This is a forum for people with interests in volcanoes (and related things). People here seem always willing to help and share, but it is not a hotline for complaints.
I was alerted by Anton Petrov to the topic of lithospheric dripping (see https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1058969 for some info).
Research has been around a few years but it has bypassed me completely. It’s looks quite a fascinating process, but I thought crust floated because it is light, so ‘weighty’ drips seem a bit of an odd idea.
These might also be a source for volcanism?
Was an earthquake at Snaefellsjokull just recently. Not otherwise significant but usually there arent any quakes here at all. Also more quakes at Ljosufjoll recently, definitely looks like this part of Iceland is waking up slowly, there will probably be an eruption there in the near future.
Ljosufjoll quakes are under a mountainous area and eruptions here are slow but have tall lava fountains and all pretty large and long lived. Very similar to the eruption of 2021.
As I mentioned higher up (https://www.volcanocafe.org/in-defense-of-grimsvotn/#comment-157014), they have installed a new seismometer in the area, so events that previously went undetected will now be picked up. Of course, the reason for installing the instrument is that the activity has picked up and eventually it will probably lead to an eruption. The combination of increased activity and increased instrument sensitivity will likely ensure that this will be a persistently active spot on the earthquake map.
Hurricane Milton now High End Cat 3
000
WTNT34 KNHC 071147
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
…AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING…
…NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI…265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI…1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…945 MB…27.91 INCHES
Cat 4 now
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071312 CCA
TCUAT4
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Corrected distance from Tampa
…MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).
These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC)
advisory.
SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT…1305 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI…1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…150 MPH…240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…940 MB…27.76 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake
Almost Cat 5 – just 2 mph below and pressure down to 933
074
WTNT34 KNHC 071453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
…MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
…FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI…210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI…1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES
It looks it’s going to get a bit bigger but a weaker before it makes landfall
Poor Florida. It is predicted to be category 3 at landfall though could be less, but still to gave two of these monsters hitting within weeks is awful.
Yes… the forecast guidance is nearly unanimous that the hurricane will weaken (possibly rather substantially) before landfall, but with a increase in the size of the wind field. Small, compact hurricanes like this one are especially responsive to changes in their surrounding environment and less resilient to the negative effects of deep-layer wind shear and dry air entrainment.
No matter what, though, this is going to be bad for Florida, as you say.
Ive always looked at Florida as a kind of “why?…” when I think about all the stuff there. Half if it wont even be there when im in my senior years by most preductions…
They will be fine. They don’t believe in global warming or sea level rise, I was told, so no problems.
Yes, really grim.
For a moment I thought they might get away with it this year, but no.
Hurricanes affect the whole Caribbean and east coast USA.
In the western pacific its been unusually bad too, same thing, called Typhoons.
I’ll give it another year or two but it seems to me that we may be seeing a positive feedback effect here. That is small increases in global warming are amplified to have a bigger than expected effect.
There is the reverse positive feedback effect of course where if large areas of the world became covered in snow for extended periods leading to more cooling.
The real problem is that our models are actually very poor and not really predictive.
We are living in interesting times…..
Cat 5 925 mb
000
WTNT64 KNHC 071553
TCUAT4
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
…MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT…1555 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI…1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…160 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.31 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown
Latest IR – Recon pass on now.
Recon latest centre fixes. Now down to 912
These images are from Tropicaltidbits.com. Great coverage of hurricanes and weather in general.
I was around 40 miles north of hurricane Andrew back in 1992. We did have some damage, the power was out for around 3 days.
There is some sheer expected to affect the storm, possibly weaking it, but will it matter? This is the 10 Meter wind speed chart.
Kind of reminds me of Andrew with its tight wind field
Mac
If you can not read it, the pressure in this image is 893 mb
When viewed from top there is indeed a striking similarity between a Hurricane and a Volcano. Now imagine they’d be able to change places and we’d have a volcano running onto Florida. Meanwhile on Iceland, a Hurricane erupts.
Just random thoughts. Both are (can be) devastating.
Now estimated 905 mb 180 mph – Recon heading back to storm now.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST…
…MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI…1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…905 MB…26.73 INCHES
Side note. Some of you know that I live in Florida. This chunk of dirt is not under threat from Milton.
It’s as strong as Camille 1969. (I was 159 miles inland and 8 years old. First time I ever saw a hurricane eyewall on radar [WLBT ch 3])
Tampa, not so much.
Dropsonde just found 899 mb at surface but they missed the exact centre so in reality a bit below that but definitely sub 900 mb now. Eye closed circular 4 nautical miles.
4 mile wide eye is insane. The models have underestimated this storm and now the models are trending towards less aggressive weakening. Not a good setup for Tampa
000
WTNT34 KNHC 072354
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
…CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD
LOW…
…MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS…
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI…100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI…1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…897 MB…26.49 INCHES
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5a0vTCaq2So
Holuhraun in high resolution yes that lava was pretty fluid and looks similar to Reykjanes
Shiveria: a fun alternative Earth tilted so both poles ends up over continetal landmasses, and that allows two Antartica sized continetal icecaps to form over land one in Asia and one in South America. This alternative tilt setup plunges Earth into a permanent Ice Age state even with todays cO2 levels. It woud be a dry windy dusty world with harsh continetal extremes and the tropics woud be mild and pleasant rather than hot as today and rainforests woud shrink and replaced by wast savannahs… most of the version of Earth is cold, dry and dusty, windy and inhospitable with strong jetstreams and frequent storms in a dust laden atmosphere sealevels drops more than 170 meters.
Most of Europe in this case will become a dry dusty semi desert that towards the Equator transforms into tropical savannah woodlands, UK in this chase becomes an open seasonal woodland with seasonal moonsoons and fairly pleasant temperatures wildfires woud be common all over. Sweden and Iceland be pleasant warm but not as hot as the real world equator and not as humid with Norway having tropical cloudforests looming over savannah woodland
And Australia is totaly doomed in this scenario and Mount Everest woud never been summited being a – 85 c inferno
Its entirely possible that our Earth may not be ideal for life.. even if we are the most habitable planet in this local solar system, our Earth maybe barely large enough to have plate tectonics, just hot enough for that. 2008 study by the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics suggests that the Earth may in fact lie on the lower boundary of habitability: if it were any smaller, plate tectonics would be impossible. Our atmospheric Density maybe not ideal either worlds with denser nitrogen – oxygen atmospheres haves more even global climates with less seasonal extremes and less diffrence between poles and equator, if orbit and greenhouse effect can be balanced. Depending on tilt you can throw Earth into chaos like here with current air pressure
http://www.worlddreambank.org/S/SHIVERIA.HTM
Inferno means extreme heat, -85C is the opposite of inferno. Extreme cold would be better described as frigid. 🙂
I have read somewhere that having open ocean at a pole gives the effect of either preventing permanent icecaps entirely or allowing for very extensive caps that would potentially run away to a snowball earth situation. Im not sure if the sun is too hot today to allow a snowball earth though.
http://www.worlddreambank.org/S/SEAPOLE.HTM
That woud be Seapole and is the radical opposite of Shiveria with both poles ending up over deep oceans rather than over land. Without any continetal glaciation the global sealevel woud be 75 meters higher than today even with preindustrial cO2 levels. The Antartica continetal icecap with its cold currents likey adds alot of dryness to todays global climate and coud be part why there are deserts and shrublands those did not exist during earlier warmer cenozoic times before glaciation.
Seapole likey will be analougus to Early Oligocene or something much warmer and greener than todays earth yet not fully a supergreenhouse. In Seapole chase tropical rainforests and temperate rainforests and broadleaf descidious forests covers much of the continents because rainfall is plentiful and global temperatures are higher than today without antarticas continetal icecap. This without any co2 increase just from sheer geography
Scandinavia turns here into a steamy tropical rainforest : )
Fascinating and fun to think that Iceland and Scandinavian area are both one of the most similar in both Shiveria and Seapole ending up more or less near the Equator. Sweden in Shiveria maybe a very pleasant place to live in warm and pleasant but not as hot and clammy like the Equator on the real Earth… Shiveria is a bit more severe than the LGM so the tropics will be pleasantly warm perhaps 6 c even 7 cooler than today, LGM equator was a very pleasant place still tropical, but with a cooler overall climate , no wonder that pleistocene humanity made it to the Sunda shelf and Sahul so early, one of the few areas with good rainfall even during the coldest driest stadials of the Ice Age. Iceland in Shiveria maybe similar to one big Samoa like thing perhaps with a weather similar to Santa Cruz ( Galapagos) thats so cool because of seacurrents its more like an equatorial melbourne rather than anything like Singapore in weather
Iceland in Seapole becomes just a tropical steamy muggy thing a few c warmer than today so likey not very livable at all perhaps looking like a volcanic Borneo, green and lush but not very livable really without air condition, its scary to think in real supergreenhouse phases like PETM the Equator heating up to 45 – 50 c with high humidity killing a human that woud time-travel that will only get worse the brigther the sun becomes
Hawaii woud also be very pleasant in Shiveria : ) with a giant icecap covering Mauna Loa while lowlands remains warm and pleasant, Alaska becomes a weird place perhaps looking like a mix of virunga, new guinea, Mt Denali still being almost as icey as today even at tropics
Seems like there is magma accumulation at Pu’u O’o.
After an eye-wall replacement cycle Milton rapidly re-intensifies. Cat 5 905 mb sustained winds 165mph
000
WTNT64 KNHC 082130
TCUAT4
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
…AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON…
Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT…2130 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI…510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI…770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…905 MB…26.72 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg/Hagen
Latest IR
Visual Hi-Res
What a beauty!
Not the word I would have used. That is the beauty of the great white shark.
Is there any correlation, positive or negative, between the more localized eruption sites like Grimsvotn and the 800 year Fires? I am curious to know if magma production rises or falls at the volcanoes in the North and East depending where we are at on the Reykjanes peninsula cycle. Thanks.
I have wondered that too. Maybe not to normal eruptions at Grimsvotn or Bardarbunga but the big rifting events down to the southwest would move a long section of the plate boundary. The fault line that goes through Reykjanes terminates at Hekla, or Torfajokull, somewhere in that area, and then becomes fully divergent at Veidivotn. So presumably a big rift at Veidivotn would move the south iceland seismic zone and potentially Reykjanes too. The last 4 rifts in the south volcanic zone were in 877, 932, 1477 and 1783. Reykjanes did become active last time around the 870s. Hekla changed significantly after 1104, although that might be too far removed from Eldgja to be linked directly it is still notable.
It might also be worth considering if Reykjanes actually might be where it starts instead. I think the last 3 years has shown that the area has probably been extremely underestimated in how influential it is on the tectonics of Iceland.
Thanks Chad. Before 2021 I didn’t understand the naming conventions much less about the complex rift and fault structure of Iceland. But once in 800 year event gave me pause to study it more. I think I my understanding of the South Iceland Volcanic Zone and the South Iceland seismic zone is where I will focus my efforts next in order to bring full circle my understanding of the significance of current volcanic events.
I think this decade is going to be VERY insightful on how Iceland behaves at a large scale.
I guess, to play further with the end of my last comment, if Reykjanes is where alot of this actually begins, ut gets very interesting. Obviously now the whole peninsula is going to unzip eventually, and that likely includes Hengill and maybe even Þingvellir. But going beyond there, we do kniw Hekla and Torfajokull are both inflated and potentially nearing a limit. Bardarbunga is also inflating as well as its sibling Hamarinn, so is Grimsvotn, and I presume so is Katla. Vatnajokull as a whole is also undergoing rebound, which might result in decompression melting and at least will increase strain on the crust.
Now we have two inflating volcano complexes, and a highly active fault zone and adjacent complex pushing at them. All the while, there is at least a few meters of extension worth of strain in the crust of south Iceland.
Basically Veidivotn is probably right on the limit now, and will probably fail before 2100. I had assumed it unlikely because Holuhraun was recent but with Hekla and Torfajokull being active the hand may be forced. All of the biggest vents of Veidivotn are at the far end and far from Vatnajokull. That is elevation related, but the rifting might well begin here and then be invaded by Bardarbunga subsequently, rather than the other way. If Vatnajokull is all interconnected at depth and there is a vast magma complex to tap into, or if the same is true of Hekla and Torfajokull, then ragnarok be upon us…
Still I think this will be eclipsed by Hawaii over the century. What is going on there somehow makes my most outrageous claims 6 years ago sound conservative. 🙂