The activity in Kilauea in the last year has been, A LOT. Not much may have happened on the surface, but underground the developments have been many, including dike intrusions, changing focuses of inflation, and seismic crises. One year has seen a shift from a rapidly inflating Mauna Loa to an overactive Kilauea. It has seen a shift within Kilauea from summit activity to Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) activity and finally to East Rift Zone (ERZ) activity, and a total of five sizable dike intrusions. This is an attempt to capture the most important developments of the past year,
6 GPS stations, each a different story
Kilauea is a volcano with shallow magma plumbing (2-3 km deep) of unparalleled complexity. Since the end of the 2018 eruption, different areas of the volcano have experienced inflation, but most amazingly these different areas have shown unique behaviors. Rather than a single reservoir, Kilauea can be treated as a vast plexus of sills and dikes, inflating at different times. The map and graph below show uplift rates in 6 GPS stations distributed across a 40-kilometer length of the volcano, and each one has shown a unique evolution since 2018.
Map of the GPS stations shown in the graph below.
Uplift in six GPS stations of Kilauea since the end of the 2018 eruption. UWEV (red) represents Halema’uma’u, the central magma chamber of Kilauea located closest to supply from depth, and progenitor of summit calderas. KOSM represents sills intruded along the Southwest Rift Zone of the volcano. PUHI may get some deformation from Halema’uma’u and the SWRZ but is closest to a cluster of sills in the area of the uppermost ERZ that is likely genetically related to the Upper ERZ and fissure eruptions in Keanakākoʻi Crater. MMAU is located near the start of a vast complex of sills extending across the East Rift Zone from Mauna Ulu to Leilani Estates, and has captured recent inflation episodes of Napau Crater. JCUZ represents sills located around Pu’u’o’o, in the Middle ERZ. JOKA represents a distinct area of sill inflation 30 km down the ERZ, centered some kilometers uprift of Leilani. Sudden reductions in the elevation of some of the stations mean eruptions or dike intrusions that drain down storage, or also graben formation in the case of KOSM.
Escalating magma influx
Throughout the period since the end of 2018, the deformation rates seem to hint at an overall increase in magma influx into the volcano. This increase may have started in late 2021 when Kilauea experienced a sudden surge of inflation along the ERZ and then the SWRZ, shortly after leading to a summit eruption on September 21 that lasted all the way to December 2022. However, the magma supply increase was truly dramatic starting from October 2023 onwards, with extraordinarily fast inflation rates spanning vast areas of the summit and SWRZ, combined with increased south flank displacement away from the volcano in the area closer to the summit. After an early 2024 lull, deformation rates climbed to even higher levels than observed before, in June-July, leading to the most spectacular inflation event of a volcano I know of. After the July dike, the faster deformation rates shifted to the ERZ near Napau Crater, and the south flank greatly ramped up its displacement by increasing slightly near the summit and extending into the areas adjacent to the ERZ, as a consequence of magma filling up the deep rift. Overall the volcano is now more active and dynamic than it was before this summer, and even more compared to before late 2023.
Locations of CALM and OUTL GPS that are shown in the graph below.
Uplift rates in CALM and OUTL GPS stations. CALM was located in the center of the 2018 caldera until destroyed by the September 2023 eruption. OUTL is located near the center of the SWRZ and the uppermost ERZ inflation.
October 2-October 30, 2023. The biggest SWRZ crisis
During the summer of 2023, the dominance of Kilauea’s summit over the volcano’s activity was starting to break down. August featured intense SWRZ seismic crises with little surface inflation, likely as magma started to inflate 2-8 km deep perpetual dike bodies (the deep rift). With the start of October came a vigorous episode of SWRZ inflation. The OUTL station located at the start of the SWRZ had far more impressive episodes of inflation in May-July 2024. But in the KOSM station (7 kilometers down the SWRZ), the October 2-October 30 crisis was by far the biggest and most intense event, with a second (similarly intense but shorter) inflation event from November 11 to November 28. The area of the SWRZ 10 km downrift of the summit had the most seismic activity in October, whilst the area 18 km downrift of the summit flared up during November and December. October, November, and December 2023 saw the highest deformation and seismic unrest of this rift zone since at least 1981.
Yellow circles denote earthquake locations from October 4–November 5, 2023, as recorded by HVO seismometers. Colored fringes denote areas of ground deformation from October 10–November 2, as measured by satellite radar.
October-November. Something stirs deep under Mauna Loa.
Fast inflation rates of Mauna Loa volcano that had started after the end of the 2022 eruption came to an end in late October 2023, and have not resumed since. In part, it’s likely that Mauna Loa took over part of Kilauea’s supply during a large portion of 2023 and when this control faded in October 2023 the magma supply then fully went to Kilauea, but it’s also possible this change was related to an overall surge in supply. During mid-2023 Mauna Loa experienced a series of deep swarms of long-period earthquakes, 40 km under the summit caldera of the volcano, the by far largest of them spanned the last days of October and first days of November. Long-period earthquakes are related to magmatic gasses underground and sort of represent some sort of gas explosion emanating from magmatic conduits. The significance of these deep swarms is speculative, but an important thing to keep in mind is that an earlier deep Mauna Loa LP swarm in 2004-2005 heralded a major magma surge into both Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes. The 40 km-deep swarming in October 28-November 3, 2023, was the most intense since that of 2005. An unusual aspect is that the LPs propagated to shallower depths and culminated in an intense summit swarm of long-period earthquakes, at depths of 4-11 km, on November 3, something I didn’t know Mauna Loa was capable of. Since this event, Mauna Loa has faded into a relative quiet.
The huge, hesitant, SWRZ intrusion of January 31, 2024.
On January 31 the previous four months of SWRZ unrest bore fruit. A dike started south of the caldera, starting quite small. At first, the intrusion would start and then stop, doing several steps, with a growing volume each time. The final step intruded most of the dike. Most dike intrusions initiate fast and fade gradually, this one started slow and ended with a bang. In fact, I was very surprised as I saw the dike quickly gain volume after the sluggish beginnings. Probably the lack of pressure made it difficult for the intrusion to pick up inertia.
This intrusion remains the largest deflation event of not just this year, but the whole post-2018 period. While some of the longer summit eruptions must have been more voluminous, they were so by erupting in equilibrium with supply from the mantle. The dike that started on January 31 extracted a larger amount of magma from storage, producing the largest deflation of Kilauea since 2018. For example, OUTL sunk 25 cm, and the Uwekahuna tiltmeter deflected by nearly 65 micro-radians. Considering the approximate dimensions of 15 km long, 2 km tall, and 2 meters wide on average, the volume of magma intruded must have been around 40 million cubic meters (0.04 km3), mobilized within two days, and the vast majority within one day. A large violent event that did not see any lava reaching the surface.
InSAR deformation map published by the USGS. Shows how the ground above the dike collapsed into a graben, while the southern side of the dike was pushed half a meter towards the satellite. The northern side is pushed in the other direction so moves away. The satellite must be looking from the east. The caldera subsides, centered on Halema’uma’u.
Map of the January 31 dike intrusion. White circles represent earthquakes as located by the USGS, the red line represents the dike intrusion (USGS InSAR based), and the purple star is the location of the initial quakes.
Uwekahuna tiltmeter shows the initial stages of the January 31, 2024 intrusion. When the line goes down, magma is being drained from the central magma storage of Kilauea. The intrusion was step-wise.
February 4-March 7. Quiet
Between February 4 and March 7, there was a slow inflation and recovery but nothing too unusual happened. Slow inflation was taking place in Halema’uma’u and the SWRZ. Over the first days, there were still aftershocks of the January 31 dike intrusion. During the remainder of the period, earthquakes happened along the SWRZ at relatively low rates. The ERZ, even the uppermost section, was completely quiet in terms of deformation or earthquakes, this activity died down in the aftermath of the January 31 dike, the latter seemingly reinforcing SWRZ dominance.
March 7-March 15. Brief SWRZ crisis.
On March 7-March 17 there was a short but very intense pulse of inflation in the KOSM GPS that did not affect other stations. In KOSM it was comparable or superior in intensity to the October-November crises, although smaller due to the short duration. USGS did not publish an interferogram but I expect this was a pulse of magma supply into the SWRZ sill complex. Seismically there was a small but distinctive pulse of earthquakes on March 11-13 as far as 18 km down the SWRZ probably due to magma flowing down to the tip of the SWRZ’s active dike complex. When this pulse ended a one-day-long swarm ensued in the upper parts of the SWRZ during March 13. There was still zero activity along the ERZ.
March 15-April 24. Minor SWRZ activity and hints of an ERZ activation.
From March 15 to the start of the next strong crisis activity was focused on the SWRZ and Halema’uma’u. Earthquakes took place occasionally in the upper 6-7 km of the SWRZ, while Halema’uma’u accelerated inflation towards the end of this interval, with quite an intense inflation before April 24. The Upper ERZ however started to have some rare earthquakes and the PUHI (UERZ) GPS may have started to record some inflation, some minor hints to the upcoming activity.
April 24-May 5. Keanakao’i inflates. The ERZ awakens.
In the interval from April 24 to May 5, a seismic crisis exploded across the Upper East Rift Zone, in the area known as the Chain of Craters, a row of large collapse craters that runs along the rift zone. Earthquakes reached down to below Pauahi Crater to areas that had not seen seismicity in nearly 3 years. At the same time, tremendous uplift rates of 1.1 cm/day hit the OUTL GPS, amounting to a 15 cm rise during this time. Inflation spanned a circular area south of the caldera. Halema’uma’u inflation (UWEV) paused completely, and the SWRZ (KOSM) went on as usual. This deformation pattern has been seen before with Upper ERZ swarms, going from memory in 2006 and 2012. It seems that when magma flows into the Chain of Craters it feeds westward from Keanakako’i Crater into sills south of the caldera, it’s a particular region of sill intrusions that is fed by the ERZ but overlaps with the area fed by the SWRZ.
InSAR image of deformation during April 24-May 5 Kīlauea upper East Rift Zone seismic swarm.
This swarm was the ERZ getting serious. At the time I commented how I thought this meant that the East Rift was going to wake up which indeed came to happen. The SWRZ was still active, but, for the first time, the ERZ was overshadowing its small sibling in terms of earthquakes and deformation (PUHI inflating faster than KOSM). Inflation rates also exceeded anything seen thus far. Previous inflation during the peak of October 2023 activity, and in August 2021 was similar or superior but did not last as long with this intensity nor amount to so much total uplift.
May 5-June 3. SWRZ’s calm before the storm
In the month leading to the June 3 SWRZ dike, there was, paradoxically, very little activity in this rift. The KOSM GPS deflated consistently during this time, and SWRZ earthquakes were almost entirely limited to the uppermost 3 km of SWRZ, there was certainly little sign of what was to come. Instead, the Upper ERZ dominated in terms of deformation and seismicity, with earthquakes happening down to Mauna Ulu.
The bizarre dike of June 3.
On June 3 a dike intrusion sprung from the lowest part of the SWRZ that had earthquakes over the preceding month, which is the exact same location where the January dike started. Deep intrusion was very small, but it did something rare, it threw a very shallow branch of magma skimming the surface of the earth, reaching 11 kilometers downrift, and producing spectacular fractures as the dike itself intersected the ground but no magma came out. Magma likely filled the shallowest depths of the SWRZ that the deeper January intrusion had not touched. Some lava managed to erupt from a set of four fissures, the first SWRZ eruption since 1974. Despite erupting and having a similar length to the January 31 dike, the June 3 event was much smaller, it caused a deflection of only about 15 microradians in the Uwekahuna summit tiltmeter, only a quarter of the January event tilt signal.
June 3 intrusion USGS interferogram. Note that the field of deformation is very narrow around the dike’s distal portion, this is due to magma being limited to shallow depths below the surface
Map of the June 3 dike intrusion. White circles represent earthquakes as located by the USGS, the red line represents the dike intrusion (USGS InSAR based), and the purple star is the location of the initial quakes. There is little seismicity because the intrusion is shallow.
Huge gaping cracks opened by the June 3 dike intrusion in the SWRZ are up to 2 meters wide. Probably in places where the empty top of the dike intersected the surface but with magma remaining just beneath.
June 3-July 22. The great rising.
The interval between the June and July dike intrusions witnessed a mindboggling episode of ground uplift centered over the uppermost SWRZ of Kilauea, encompassing a vast area. During those 49 days, the OUTL GPS station, close to the inflation center, uplifted 38 cm, at average rates of nearly 0.8 cm per day. The uplifting area was about 20 kilometers long and over 10 kilometers wide. The scale of this inflation was such that had it lasted one full year the summit of Kilauea would have uplifted almost 3 meters, all this while pushing the south flank away too. I’m not sure if anything of this size has ever been documented in volcanoes as a whole. I believe that during this event all three, SWRZ, Halema’uma’u, and Keanakako’i, sill complexes were activated at the same time. Earthquake distribution may support this. Earthquakes were focused in the ERZ during this time, as far down as Mauna Ulu. Yet simultaneously, there was weak seismic activity up to 5 km down the SWRZ connector, and a strange intense cluster showed up in the south margin of Halema’uma’u.
USGS interferogram covering part of the interval between the June and July dike intrusions showing the gargantuan uplift that was taking place. Deflation of the cooling magma emplaced just below the surface on June 3 can also be seen.
The July 22 dike intrusion
The July 22 dike/dikes/dikes-sill intrusion came after weeks of earthquake swarming in the area that eventually ruptured. The intrusion caused a deflation signal of 11 microradians in the Uwekahuna tiltmeter, somewhat smaller than the June dike, and less than a sixth the size of the January dike. Intrusion lasted four days. Earthquake activity was quite dramatic, with 500 hundred earthquakes bigger or equal than M 2, not too far from the 700 >= M2 earthquake count of the January event. Likely due to intruding a very seismogenic area.
The exact start is unclear since earthquakes sprung up from different parts of the Chain of Craters at the same time, and the exact morphology is also strange since InSAR shows a triangular area of deflation surrounded by a ring of inflation. The main graben seems to correspond to a dike intrusion under the former location of Aloi Crater, but the graben has a triangular shape that extends up into Pauahi Crater, likely meaning multiple en echelon dike segments under Aloi and southern Pauahi Crater, with the grabens of the separate segments merging, as well as the inflation lobes to the sides of the segments which turn into an uplift ring around the dikes. Later interferograms show a deflating arc across the Chain of Crater. I think maybe a narrow sill connecting separate dike segments intruded along the Chain of Craters. There was no eruption, as the dikes did not reach the surface.
July 22 intrusion USGS interferogram. To the careful eye, it can be noted that an unusual triangular graben encompasses Pauahi Crater. and areas to the south and east. This triangular “graben” (more of a sag to be honest) is almost entirely surrounded by a ring of inflation. The Kulanaokuaiki Pali fault is ruptured.
Map of the July 22 dike intrusion. White circles represent earthquakes as located by the USGS, the red lines represent the dike intrusions (speculative, based on the InSAR), and the red polygon shows the likely extent of the intrusion, perhaps as a sill.
July 22-August 7. Napau inflates. The south flank speeds up considerably.
The July 22 intrusion caused a shift. After the intrusion, the area south of the caldera where PUHI and OUTL are located, as well as the Halema’uma’u area, continued to deflate for a few days, possibly due to continued sheet intrusion of dikes and sills. During this time very rapid uplift took place in Napau Crater, in the ERZ, 15 km downrift of the summit. Rapid uplift of Napau continued after July 27 while the summit started to reinflate slowly. During this time, rates of uplift were high, 0.25 cm/day over the Napau inflation center according to the InSAR shown below, but not too much compared to the bigger 2024 crises. Strong seismic swarming also started happening around Napau and Makopuhi Craters at 2-3 km deep, likely along the top of dilating deep dike bodies, while SWRZ earthquakes disappeared entirely.
USGS InSAR showing deformation of Kīlauea, over the timeframe of July 26-August 7, 2024. Subsidence is taking place along the Chain of Craters down to Mauna Ulu, probably as the July 22 intrusion cools. Meanwhile, Napau rises.
Another important change is that south flank stations have recorded increased seaward movement after the July 22 eruption. The graph below shows the HOLE station, which is closer to the coast than the rift, adjacent to the ERZ. Supposedly is far enough not to be significantly affected by sill deformation. The seaward displacement has ramped up spectacularly, with 4 cm horizontal displacement between July 27 and September 14. This would be as much as 30 cm/year which is far above the typical rate of south flank motion. Magma accumulation in deep rift (2-8 km deep) dike bodies is likely responsible for these developments, it may partly shift deformation from vertical elevation to the ground to horizontal displacement of the south flank. This process compresses the flank with the nearby flank being pushed away but distal areas being stuck, eventually, a reverse earthquake will shift the entire flank and relieve compression, which is no immediate concern since the 2018 earthquake did that exact thing not long ago. It’s, however, another sign of ERZ activity escalating, since this may lead to future dike intrusion and fissure eruptions as deeper rifting tries to link with the surface.
The southward motion of the south flank GPS HOLE has ramped up gradually since 2022, with a dramatic increase after the July 22, 2024 dike intrusion.
August 7-August 20. Pu’u’o’o inflates.
On August 7, inflation commenced under Pu’u’o’o at rates of up to 0.5 cm/day, probably higher in the first days of inflation when deformation was faster, amounting to about 6 cm uplift SW of Pu’u’o’o in the interval covered by the USGS interferogram below. This episode brought inflation to JCUZ GPS after 3 years of continuous deflation. A new cluster of earthquakes emerged between Napau and Pu’u’o’o at depths of around 2 km. With this cluster, the upper 17 km of the East Rift Zone, including the whole Chain of Craters was swarming with earthquakes, whilst only weak seismicity persisted in the uppermost SWRZ. On August 14, it seems like JOKA GPS, 30 km downrift, also started slow uplift.
USGS inSAR map shows deformation at Kīlauea, over the timeframe of August 7-19, 2024. Showing Pu’u’o’o uplift episode. Deflation continues along the Chain of Craters as the July 22 intrusion cools.
The August 20 dike intrusion
A second ERZ dike intrusion took place a month later. It started as a flurry of earthquakes near Pauahi Crater that quickly propagated up and down the Chain of Craters. Volume was the smallest among the 5 dikes of 2024 thus far, with only a 4-5 microradian deflation in the Uwekahuna tiltmeter. InSAR shows again a certain ring pattern, with a central subsidence area surrounded by a ring of inflation, although not as clear as in the July dike. It’s likely due to en-echelon dike segments being intruded. I think maybe a larger dike intrusion under and west of Hiiaka Crater, and another dike under the north side of Pauahi Crater. Once again, there was no eruption as the dikes did not intersect the surface.
USGS InSAR map covering Aug 9-Aug 21, including the Aug 20 dike intrusion. “Opening” is incorrectly dubbed in the map as it should be placed a little more to the north. The butterfly pattern is confused. The southern concentric pattern is the southern flank of the dike being uplifted, but the northern pattern is not the other flank of the dike but the graben above the intrusion, the other flank being obscured by vegetation and due to being more subtle since Kilauea dikes dip southward,
Map of the August 20 dike intrusion. White circles represent earthquakes as located by the USGS. The red lines represent the dike intrusions (speculative, InSAR-based), and the purple star is the location of the initial quakes.
HVO geologist measures cracks opened by dike intrusion near Pauahi Crater on August 20.
August 20-September 15. Unrest continues in the area of Makaopuhi and Napau.
Following the August 20 dike deformation rates were low for a while until August 30 when a new episode of rapid Napau uplift started and was still ongoing on September 11, which is the last data I accessed. Swarming largely died down in the area between Napau and Pu’u’o’o as did the inflation SW of Pu’u’o’o, with activity retreating slightly uprift. Judging from earthquakes, this situation of activity continued with little change until the onset of the September 15 dike intrusion.
The September 15 dike intrusion. Napau erupts.
The fifth Kilauea dike of 2024, and the third ERZ dike, started on September 15. This event would produce a small eruption but was mostly intrusive. With a 40 micro radian drop in the Uwekahuna tiltmeter, this event has been quite substantial. Not as big as that of January, but the largest afterward. Earthquakes broke out next to the location of the former Alae Crater (now buried in Mauna Ulu lava) and quickly propagated uprift and downrift. This happened on September 15 UTC, although in Hawaii it was still September 14. The USGS InSAR shown below is taken from the very first moments of the intrusion and shows a dike growing from Alae to the shield of Kane Nui O Hamo, this is not the dike that has erupted though, it’s too far north. Later dike segments must have sprung up in the area of Makaopuhi and Napau Craters which fed the eruption.
USGS InSAR covers the very first moments of dike growth during the intrusion that started on September 15 UTC/September 14 HST. A dike intrudes across what I call the Alae swarm, a historic lineament of fissures cutting across Alae Crater, last ruptured by dikes in 2007 and 1993.
Map of the September 15 dike intrusion. White circles represent earthquakes as located by the USGS, the red lines represent the dike intrusions (speculative, InSAR, earthquake, and eruptive fissure based), the purple star is the location of the initial quakes, and the pink line is the eruption fissure.
As a result of this intrusion, an eruption ensued. A dike first broke out from a forested area above Napau Crater, producing a tiny patch of lava, then another fissure broke out across the floor of Napau Crater, at lower elevations, but was abandoned, probably due to ponded degassed lava drowning the vents. Activity surged again in the forested area above Napau Crater forming a magnificent cascade down the wall and flooding with lava much of Napau’s floor. Deflation came to an end on September 19. While eruptions can sometimes resume after a pause, I doubt this will be the case.
USGS photo of the Napau Crater eruption during a Hawaiian Volcano Observatory helicopter overflight on the morning of September 17, 2024.
A puzzling aspect of the intrusion aftermath is that some shallow earthquakes can be seen in the past week’s seismic map of Kilauea that are happening in the JOKA GPS area, south of Heiheiahulu and further down, up to 40 km down the ERZ. They are not large enough to have been included in the manually located catalog that is made public, but from what I can gather in the map it may fit the usual location of magmatic swarms in that area, showing that magma may be reaching well into the ERZ. However, as long as swarming does not intensify, or JOKA inflation does not increase, this may not mean much.
Predictions
Kilauea is, now, a very dynamic, rapidly evolving volcano. The supply has its usual ups and downs but seems to remain high overall. After the 2018 eruption, I expected volcanic activity to return to the East Rift Zone of Kilauea, after the summit caldera was filled high enough. The reason for me to think this is that the ERZ’s plumbing didn’t sustain damage from the 2018 collapse, in fact after the 2018 collapse, magma was easily making its way down to JCUZ and JOKA GPS. The ERZ activation has indeed come, after a short SWRZ chapter, and without as much caldera filling as I thought would be necessary. With the recent Napau eruption, it’s clear that more and bigger eruptions are coming and that the ERZ is likely to be the main focus of activity. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if Halema’uma’u erupts too, eventually. Possibly a sudden fissure eruption with little warning across the 2018 caldera, which may erupt a substantial volume given how much more inflated the summit is now. But the ERZ is the most enigmatic development. And I’m not sure what to expect exactly. A new Pu’u’o’o, large lower rift fissure eruptions, or more dike intrusions with small eruptions in the UERZ? Eventually, there might be time for everything to happen. 2024 has been an incredibly dynamic year for Kilauea and there are still three months left. We are in for quite a ride, which could end up being unfortunate depending on which way it goes.
Some relevant links:
Nevada Geodetic Laboratory (GPS data): http://geodesy.unr.edu/
Interactive Earthquake Browser – IRIS (seismic data): https://ds.iris.edu
USGS Kilauea page: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea
Good article. It is quite impressive of what Kīlauea can do within a year and I do think there will be more. The current Napau eruption, in my opinion, might be an end of an eruption but the beginning of something more active and bigger in the future. Only time will truly tell…
Anyways, there has been a update from the Sundhnúkur fissures in Iceland and, oh boy, something a but odd is happening.
Seems the inflation is going a bit quicker than usual, but for how long I don’t know, but this looks like a slightly higher input of magma is entering the system.
I am still going to stick with my “forecast” of an eruption sometime in December of the Sundhnúkur fissures, although it is possible Kīlauea might be the star of the show then, even competing with the Sundhnúkur for attention…
Zach:
Thanks for pointing this out. This seems a bit unusual. I guess we’ll have to keep carefully watching, but you might be right on the next fissure eruption date being sooner than expected.
Thanks Zach Trent. Interesting to see that that Sundhnúkur is inflating faster this time too.
Very convenient timing for this article after the events of the past week 🙂
At least we got to see a SWRZ eruption, if this phase of ERZ activity is like Pu’u O’o it might be decades before eruptions anywhere else happen again. Although my assumption it would erupt there again was wrong.
Halemaumau is refilling, at about 1 microrad a day too even as SDH is still showing the main magma chamber draining to the ERZ. So in a bit over a month we might get a round 2. Whether it is at the recent fissure or makes a new dike we will hace to see. It might just start erupting suddenly and quietly again this week, depending on how open the fissure is. If not this year or exactly this fissure, the area between Pu’u O’o and Kanenuiohamo is the second place I picked to do a lava shield eruption. With Halemaumau being lower though it would probably be smaller, closer to Mauna Ulu, a 30 year eruption would probably be east of Pu’u O’o
Still the month recovery time based on tilt is about the same as early Pu’u O’o, and that restarted despite a lower supply rate than today and the reactivated area being further from the dike origin than this weeks vent probably is.
With the GPS not updating is hard to tell, but it looks like SDH is still deflating while POC is possibly picking up inflation from the direction of Napau Crater.
Thank-you for your professional description and analysis of the last Kilauea developments, Hector!
Did the September 2023 eruption already give a sign towards the ERZ? https://www.usgs.gov/maps/september-14-2023-kilauea-summit-eruption-reference-map
The fissure inside the Summit Caldera opened towards the eastern part of the caldera. The eruption was different to the previous 2020-2023 summit eruptions in regard to its duration and behaviour. It was a short eruption (six days) that stayed a fissure eruption during all its few days. It reminded more to the recent Napau eruption than the endless steady summit eruptions 2020-2022.
Not an ERZ sign, that trend from Halemaumau to Kilauea Iki is more related to the SWRZ. If the crater floor or lava lake at Halemaumau is high up then the fissure goes down the SWRZ too, like in 1919 and 1971. But it is too low for that now it seems.
I guess, Kilauea Iki might technically be on the ERZ, but it isnt connected to the chain of craters. I dont really know what happened in 1960 but the very hot lava, long distance from the summit, and the hige increase in supply during the eruption indicates the whole volcano had a huge intrusion in late 1959. Maybe that is what happened this year again, and in 2004.
I think the last 2023 eruption was a direct indicator that Halemaumau had filled in enough though, the earlier eruptions were all ring faults of the 2018 caldera, the September eruption being a fissure along the old trend showed that the 2018 caldera was filled enough to stop acting as a ‘hole’ even though it only filled in physically about 20%. So clearly caldera filling at Kilauea is almost entirely controlled by elevation of the crater floor and not the volume of the collapse, it got back to 900 meters and that was all that mattered. If the downdtopped block was 100 meters lower we might still be watching a summit eruption now.
I guess that is probably why activity moved to the ERZ immediately in the 1950s, Kilauea Iki was a full open conduit in 1959 that could have evolved into a shield, but magma had an option to go to the ERZ so it did. And it evidently still does. 2018 was not like 1790, it was just a really big ‘normal’ eruption, and now things are back to how they were before.
So the 9/2023 eruption was an indicator that the summit eruptions were going to end. How could during 19th century the summit erupt so long on the summit? After 1840 and before 1919 there were only summit eruptions for 80 years. How high was the caldera filled compared to today?
The caldera was deeper over a way bigger area I guess, so it took a lot longer to fill up to 900+ meters. But it also drained abd refilled too, in 1868 it all drained out completely and there was probably a massive ERZ intfusion, and a small eruption on the SWRZ. And after 1868 the only lava was a shield that turned into Halemaumau, so the caldera filled with solid lava not liquid. Halemaumau did collapse on a small scale a lot of times between 1868 and 1924, when it stopped erupting continuously.
I would guess that the low supply and slow filling, as well as it filling with a lava shield not a liquid lava lake, and the much larger size of the caldera at the critical depth. That is probably why there was a century of summit lava lake before 1924, and why it only lasted 3 years recently.
I think also the volume of the lava lake in Halemaumau wasnt enough to intrude into the walls to the southwest. The depth is enormous over 400 meters, but the volume is only 0.2 km3, the lava lake that existed in the early to mid 19th century was probably 5-10x the volume, over 1 km3. It was probably a similar depth but with much larger area.
I forgot that 1840 to 1950 was an active century of Mauna Loa with 31 eruptions. Maybe this reduced Kilauea to more weak but steady summit activity. It is unkown yet if Mauna Loa is going to enter an active period like this again in later 21st century.
1886, 1891 and 1894 were years with subsidence in Kilauea’s summit caldera. HVO mentions possible intrusions in the rift zones 1891 and 1894. 1886 was a possible submarine eruption. The repeated subsidence events probably prevented high lava accumulation in the summit caldera.
I would say the chance that Mauna Loa being active and Kilauea being relatively less so, being unrelated is almost none. They might not be directly connected, but they do interact very significantly. Mauna Loa in the 1850s was very productive, probably over 1 km3 of lava. It was only really in 1881 that it seemed to slow, that was the last long lived flank eruption. Kilauea did pick up in 1918, up to 1924 it probably had a similar supply to more recently, but it plummeted in the later 1920s up to 1950. And Mauna Loa got more active, it was WW2 so I think possibly some was missed. It ended with 1950, I think that eruption was probably a ‘failed’ caldera collapse, although calling an eruption of that magnitude a failure of anything isnt very useful. But it left no collapse, maybe hinting that Mauna Loa doesnt actually have a very shallow chamber to drain, just a more stable deeper system that is like a thick dike. Its like Hekla but a shield and 1000x bigger 🙂
Interesting that Kama’ehuakanaloa doesnt seem to have any interaction at all, its last eruption in 1996 wasnt small and it was when Pu’u O’o was erupting. I dont know if Hualalai has an interaction, probably not with Kilauea but it might with Mauna Loa.
The more I have learned about Mauna Loa though, the more it is clear what happened between 1840 and 1950 was very extreme. The 70 years since are pretty quiet but on average it is still probably at least 10 years between. Kilauea is usually more active, but Mauna Loa is huge and its lava flows very far very easily so covers huge areas. It seems like it is more typical for the two volcanoes to alternate a lot faster than getting a full century in charge. That might apply equally to the 1950-now era of Kilauea too.
Imagine if Kilauea begins an active ERZ period now, and 2040 Mauna Loa also enters a vital eruption period? Can both volcanoes do active/big things at the same time or is the magma ressource too scarce?
History does not always repeat. Too many things going on which all interact. Pu’u’O’o formed in the decades after the massive Hilina slump earthquake along the eastern rift zone in 1975. The 1983 earthquake, smaller but closer, may have contributed.
The post-1840 period had no other big event in this location, but instead there was a massive quake on the western part of the slump in 1868. I think Mauna Loa is still recovering from this one. Perhaps a large slip on one side increases the stress on the other side. So the 1868 western event shut down the eastern rift, and the 1975&1983 ones affected Mauna Loa.
The upshot is that the whole eastern rift was under stress during this period. A high magma pressure was needed to get past this. High stress favours summit eruptions, lower stress opens up the middle rift zone and low stress the far eastern rift. How far it actually gets depends on the magma pressure. After 2018 this was very low, until the collapsed crater had filled in. Once that was done, pressure was high enough to open the upper rift.
Bit of an interplay, of course. The big earthquakes may have a tendency to be initiated by an eruption. But they were probably on the verge of happening anyway.
2018 quake was similar to the 1975 quake, not quite as strong but it had a similar displacement at the ERZ apparently.
There are similarities and 2018 was almost an M7. But the 1975 quake was considerably stronger, with a displacement volume that was about 5 times larger. It also generated a large tsunami, showing that there was displacement off-shore. But the point is the effect that these quakes may have. When there is a lot of stress, eruptions far down rift are not impossible but they require more effort. More effort means: higher magma pressure (and level) at the summit. We are now at a time of low(ish) stress and still relatively low magma pressure. Without wanting to make predictions, a continuing series of small eruptions seems most likely to me.
It seems the opposite is true though, magma flows down the ERZ easily, it only fills the summit high when the ERZ isnt spreading. The supply is lower when the ERZ is quiet too, on long timescales anyway.
The low supply in the late 19th century let Halemaumau fill in the caldera slowly with a solid lava shield, not a lava lake as before. It did collapse and become a crater but it was small. So when supply was high later the summit was still very high even though it was quiet for nearly 20 years in 1952. So it went down the ERZ all the way immediately. If the south flank is moving there is no pressure against magma in the rift.
History does not repeat, but does it allow to build models for chronological behaviour of volcanoes? Maybe we can’t understand all the causal variables that let a volcano erupt on a certain point in time in a certain way. But we can try to learn from statistical behaviour and combine it with some causal variables that we can grasp.
Sure, that is the way to proceed. But with four or five (or more) variables, it takes a long time to collect the data. At the very least, it takes several cycles of the main earthquakes. As they are not in phase, you need long enough to see the various combinations. Add that volcanoes, like metal fatigue, are not entirely predictable. For Kilauea, perhaps 500-1000 years to cycle through enough permutations?
Yes, it’s difficult to predict volcanoes, also the Hawaiians. However I think that mainly effusive volcanoes like these are still better to predict than Strombolian volcanoes (f.e. Etna) that often do sudden explosions or lava eruptions without significant precursor signals. Kilauea often does first a summit inflation, before magma wents into the rift zones and an intrusion/eruption happens there. Also the GPS measurements on KERZ station close to Napau showed that magma was accumulating there significantly.
If we look at the UWE graph, it had until end of 2022 a lot of predictability and stability in its behaviour. Since the beginning of 2023 it shifted towards more random (from human perspective) behaviour with many ups and downs.
This is a clear change: From 2018 to 2022 Kilauea was in a period of stable behviour, while since 2023 Kilauea has entered a period of instable and more difficult to predict behaviour. If in future Kilauea choses to remain with eruptions in a solid location, it may again become the stable/predictable volcano that it was until End of 2022.
Low supply during the 19th century, that was mostly going to Mauna Loa, and damage to the East Rift Zone plumbing in the 1790 caldera collapse are some of the possible reasons why the activity was concentrated at the summit of Kilauea.
If we look at the whole 2020-2024 period, I’d differ the periods:
– December 2020 to May 2021 “introductory” summit eruption
– September 2021 to December 2022 Main Summit Eruption
– December 2022 to September 2024 transitional period from summit to ERZ eruptions. This transitional period began with a change of summit eruptions. After the September 2023 eruption the transitional period moved towards plenty intrusions which included the minor SWRZ eruption in June.
– September 2024 begins a ERZ eruption period. The transitional period is over. The recent Napau eruption probably is an introductary ERZ eruption to something bigger, as the 2020-2021 summit eruption was the precursor for something bigger.
I’d include a SWRZ episode in there too, from October 2023 to April 2024 since most of the magma, as per seismicity and deformation, was being supplied to the Southwest Rift Zone.
I’d view this SWRZ dominating episode as part of the “Transitional Period” between the main summit eruption 2022 and the ERZ eruption now. During transitional periods like this Kilauea tends to cheat by activity at places that are not going to be the solid locations of future volcanic activity.
The recent ERZ eruption looks like the number one eruption in a series of ERZ eruptions, maybe once with a dominant location.
Great article Hector! Really informative!
Thanks, Randall.
I’ve been trying to make sense of Hawaii for some time. Thanks for such a coherent and useful article, Héctor!
Thanks, Clive
HVO has officially declared the Middle East Rift Zone eruption over.
How does the deformation continue there? I’m not sure if the GPS stations still are working.
They are working but the feed isnt public right now. The public feed was broken anyway so presumably HVO are doing maintenence on something. It seems strange that all GPS stopped together, so it is probably something on their end internally, rather than instrument failure.
The recent updates say the ERZ isnt getting fed magma at high rate, which fits with Halemaumau inflating and SDH sitting almost flat, maybe minor ongoing deflation. But the whole south flank seems to be increasingly more active and going quite far east beyond the recent eruption. It will be interesting to see when the GPS are back.
Fortunately we still have the tilt meter stations working. They allow to see present inflation at UWE station:
Pu’U O’o ist still deflating; the blue line continues the trend before the eruption:
That actually shows weak inflation at Pu’u O’o, or near it. Only the green line going down is deflation.
(SDH, 12-hour, live)
(SBL, 12-hour, live)
Something is going on at the summit now…
(KKO, 12-hour, live)
(WRM, 12-hour, live)
May have to check other stations along the East Rift
(RIMD, 12-hour, live)
(PAUD, 12-hour, live)
A slight increase of “spiking” earthquakes, but nothing compared to increased tremor at the summit…
(OBL, 12-hour, live)
OBL (Northern rim of 2018 collapse) shows very strong tremor, but looks to be ending. May come back, but not sure.
There have been lots of quakes around 5-10 km depth range, at the bottom of the magma chamber. I dont know if that is causing a signal like this though. The earthquake maps dont display tremors very well either.
There also looks to have been a DI cycle that is ending, so supply into the magma chamber might be very high at this moment. It also could be the Pahala quakes.
(STCD, 12-hour, live)
I guess, but either way, the system is fairly active, magma possibly passively moving into the body…
(UWE, 2-day, live)
UWE is also tilting again, but looks to be not very rapid as this picture depicts.
The summit reservoir below UWE probably needs to breath in magma first before it can release it to anywhere else. I’d assume that we have to wait until the summit has inflated enough, before next things happen. But it’s uncertain whether next wave of magma goes to MERZ or does something in the summit. Still the summit is able to erupt, as we witnessed around the Mauna Ulu eruption.
The summit probably does need to refill but that may only be true of Halemaumau specifically. SDH has dropped in the recent eruption, but over the past few years it also got pushed up by a LOT, it has maybe only fallen 5% of what it has risen since this time last year.
Also, SDH is recording tilt caused by the major magma system and the SWRZ connector. UWE records mostly Halemaumau. SDH does also record Halemaumau but it seems less accurate, probably because it isnt sitting on as stable ground. Anyway, SDH likely records redistribution of pressure in the magma system laterally, magma pressure that went from the SWRZ to the middle ERZ. Halemaumau is physically above this area, magma has to be pushed up into it, or drain down. The eruption stopped when the UWE tiltmeter stopped going down, even though SDH kept going down. I thought that meant it would keep going but it seems to be a bit unrelated. SDH has now stopped subsiding, and HVO said that the middle ERZ source isnt inflating anymore either.
Basically, level tilt or deflation on SDH shows magma generally going to the ERZ or st least pressure redustribution. But deflation at Halemaumau is probably a better demonstration of when an actual intrusion takes place. So magma will probably keep going to the ERZ but Halemaumau will probably need to see more inflation to have another intrusion.
Question is whether a full +40 microrad recovery is needed, the intrusions at Pauahi overshot in recovery but Pauahi is higher than Halemaumau, and so was the June eruption and the starting point of the dike back in January. But Napau is much lower down than all of these. It might depend on if the recent fissure can be reused, if it can then it might well do so within a month otherwise it could be a while. Assuming nothing changes unexpectedly.
Kilauea’s intrusions and eruptions usually are accompanied by deflation at UWE tilt/GPS stations and preceded by more or less inflation:
To go down (deflate), the summit first has to go up somewhat in normal times.
That is the case for eruptions higher up but it wasnt exactly true for Pu’u O’o. Mauna Ulu had a lot of secondary eruptions not at the shield itself because the growth of the shield put the vent at the same elevation as Halemaumau, even a bit higher I think. That and in 1971 the floor of Halemaumau subsided as the still liquid lava of 1968 drained out, presumably into the SWRZ when that eruption happened. That us what made that distinctive white line around the walls of pre-2018 Halemaumau, to show how high it was in 1969.
Pu’u O’o though had persistend deflation at the summit from its onset up to 2005 or so, even though there were a number of intrusions uprift of it in other parts of the volcano, one of which erupted in 1997. It had more eruptions elsewhere after 2007, one in that year, Halemaumau in 2008, middle ERZ in 2011, and then 2018. But even in 2018 Kilaueas summit was less pressurized than before 1983, but the middle ERZ was much more so.
If the ERZ us really open I dont think we will see proportional summit inflation before eruptions, not like with summit eruptions anyway.
How long would you expect do we have to wait until next intrusion/eruption can happen?
About a month if the recent fissure can be reopened, but still likely before New Years. And probablu same area again.
Great article Hector. I often struggle to make sense of the Hawaiian volcano posts because they assume a lot of existing and detailed knowledge as a foundation. This article was wonderfully clear and absolutely fascinating. Well done.
I agree 100% with Andrew’s comments. Again, thank you Hector.
Excellent synthesis, Hector, and a lot of work! This article is very helpful and much appreciated.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/past-month-monitoring-data-kilauea#overview
Past month of earthquakes at Kilauea. When you go back further all of those little quakes start to add up and it is clear that the south flank seems to be moving as far east as near the 2018 eruption. There probably isnt much magma moving that far but it wouldnt be too hard to get it east of Pu’u O’o.
I guess now this eruption has stopped, its not so certain the next eruption will be at this spot. It would have been a perfect location to erupt for 30 years, a shield east of Pu’u O’o would be a lot more destructive unfortunately.
Mexico gets a severe hurricane with up to 1000mm rain: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/085124.shtml?rainqpf#contents
Are there volcanoes that can be affected either bei phreatic or lahar activity?
Probably not.
https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/volcanic-unrest-grindavik
New update:
Seems the last eruption was the largest of the whole series: 61.2 million m³ erupted. That raises a certain concern for the future…
Okay, added another just in case the first one is too big…
Until now each eruption was bigger than the previous one. When do we reach the peak of the eruptions? Will there be a decline after the biggest eruption has happened or will the last eruption be the biggest one?
During the Medieval Fires there were years of break between the six eruptions (or eruption series?): “One episode of eruptive activity (‘Fires’) has occurred in Reykjanes-Svartsengi volcanic systems in historical times, 1210-1240 CE. During these Fires, at least six discrete eruptions occurred at 2 to 12 year intervals.” https://icelandicvolcanos.is/#
I think the last should be the biggest. It’s when pressure will be highest, with the least available space to fill underground.
Thanks for your prediction! In this case I’d expect that the last will be at the latest two years after the onset. But maybe after this a break of some years, before next things happen.
It is difficult to imagine how they applied the “discrete eruptions” and “intervals” during the Medieval Fires to the events. Were the six discrete eruptions similar to the six single episodes that we’ve had until now? Or did the single “discrete eruption” include the whole swarm eruption like we’ve had from December until now?
Does Sumisujima (Smith Rocks) warrant further scrutiny? It appears to have caused yet another tsunami.
Must be another CLVD earthquake related to the ring fault. Supposedly, the volcano has only “recently” started resurgence given its deep caldera, so, while highly interesting, I don’t think it’s a threat yet.
Similar events have happened at Sofugan. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL108415
Interesting!
MBL just shut their camera feed off again. It was definitely a deliberate human act: it happened at precisely 6:59:50 PM Iceland time, so close to an exact hour as for this to be unlikely to be a coincidence, and there was nothing on the feed just before it happened to suggest another cause (animals, weather, etc.); not only was it intentional it seems to have been premeditated, scheduled in fact.
Why?
It may be taking a well-earned break… anyway, the next iceland eruption is not yet scheduled.
Yes its pretty clear how these eruptions operate now, the next one isnt likely for at least another month and might not even happen this year at the higher end of estimates. If it does erupt in that time and it is anything significant that would be really weird and unpredictable, so we would learn something 🙂
But otherwise it is just going to be livestreaming nothing. Its also possible they are doing maintenence, fixing the solar panels or adding more batteries. Or fixing the connection. Theres a lot of reasons to stop it. And they know how popular and important the livestreams are it would be silly to think they turn it off in spite.
Please stop complaining. I was critical too, and my stupidity got the IMO to turn off the beach ball data on Iceland earthquakes. Now everyone suffers. You need to be thankful that some are generous enough to give us any data or pictures at all.
I think you addressed this to the wrong person
The comment was for B.Bound, but for some reason it went to the wrong person. Thanks chad for pointing this out.
In my experience its better not to feed the trolls.
If everyone just ignores people complaining about cameras in unhelpful ways, trolls will go away. Reply and you feed their ego. Note that its easy to change your name, by their deeds you will know them.
-Decades of usenet experience.-
We all KNOW icelandic camera coverage is awesome, way way best in the world.
You are probably right, I have been thinking about this the last couple of days or so. Thank you for the post.
I don’t often say this but would you please shut UP about the cameras in Iceland. I’ve seen you moaning about this camera feed or that camera feed repeatedly, and it’s becoming borderline trolling IMHO.
You’re whining to us here as if we have any control over it!
Thank you.
Thanks Mike! Now I didn’t have to be the one to say it.
In Iceland we have mbl, RÚV, livefromiceland, afar, and maybe someone I missed, who all have several high resolution live streaming cameras covering every thinkable and unthinkable little piece of this part of the Reykjanes peninsula. These cameras, and their data transfer, run on batteries and solar panels. Now the days are getting shorter in Iceland and there’s less daylight to power things. They are placed in a tough environment and they need service from time to time.
Just be happy that these cameras exist and that the folks running them do their best to keep them running. We have just witnessed what the alternative looks like with the Kilauea eruption. Crappy still images with poor exposure from 2 or 3 cameras where you could in best case spot some glowing lava and a gas plume in the distance.
Honestly, I wouldn’t cry if a moderator decided to show you the airlock. You have been warned about this topic before. Luckily for you, I’m not a moderator…
Maybe they want to protect it against rough Icelandic weather conditions and can use it again during next eruption.
I don’t think we need the cameras, though. Granted, it could erupt at any time, but very unlikely right now nonetheless. I don’t really care about them right now. Maybe wait at least next month and only care if the quakes begin quaking again. I forecasted that the eruption might happen in mid-November at the earliest, but mid-December at the latest… maybe. The graph, like I showed, does show slightly higher uplift rates than usual, but it is still not there yet, not even half. Patience is key. For now, there are other things to be interested in.
The cameras are part of monitoring for eruptive activity. I expect they will be back prior to or as soon as possible after the onset of the next eruption, depending on how much warning the fissure(s) give.
The highway between Pohoiki and the Kumukahi lighthoise is going to be rebuilt over the 2018 lava. This is the thickest part that is probably still incandescent inside or even still mobile, although it must be cool on the surface.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/SVEYsJKgCACWUgXw/?mibextid=oFDknk
Does anyone know what this signal is? Around 6:30, it looks spiky but not in the way tremors do. Maybe it is the flank slipping.
https://i.imgur.com/RouKOfv.jpeg
Hawaii looks quiet now. … maybe Etna is next: Deep swarm in the northern region. Sometimes Etna can change fast.
https://www.ct.ingv.it/index.php/monitoraggio-e-sorveglianza/segnali-in-tempo-reale/tremore-vulcanico
https://www.vulkane.net/blogmobil/aetna-mehrere-erdbeben-in-groesserer-tiefe/
An eccentric, possibly alkalic basalt Etna eruption would be eyebrow-raising.
That area up to the north is rarely active but eruptions there seem to be huge. Theres a big obvious cone of Monte Mojo just beyond the base of Etna, and there is a lava flow that went all the way down the Alcantara river to the ocean south of Taormina, which could have originated at Monte Mojo.
I guess the only comparisons historically are that in 1669, or the couple of eccentric eruptions in 1974, 2001-2003. And also the summit eruptions of the last 10 years, which apparently were very mafic and also caused deflation of the volcano, not inflation like would be the case in a more effusive eruption.
So basically, a combined lava flood and borderline subplinian eruption. Im convinced that the steriotypical image of a volcano is probably based on Etna, a volcano that can erupt fluid lava and explode at the same time.
A question arises: Do swarms in the northern flank precede to intrusions in the north or do they precede the rise of magma through the central conduit?
Some Y’all be spoiled, talking about camera’s occasionally going dead whilst I am over here ripping my hair out since the IGEPN has stopped regularly reporting on CCN and the instruments there can go dead for a year without any explanation.
Some volcanoes have problems with volcanology budget. Someone has to have a reason to spend money on this. Even Iceland has to use some intruments/cameras for Svartsengi that were placed at Fagradalsfjall before. Scarcity rules economis, and economics rule volcano observation.
Fortunately Italy has money to spend for live webcam observation of its volcanoes (here Vulcano with Fumaroles and Stromboli with dust&steam activity):
https://www.ct.ingv.it/sezioniesterne/StreamingEolie.php
Still frustrating as all hell though.
Often they tend to think “it’s not going to happen now”, so they spend money elsewhere. There is always someone who can argue to deserve money more than civil protection. But when the disaster actually happens, everyone is complaining … it’s the same with all kind of natural disasters. They get a period of attention, and after some years usually lose attention quickly again. Humans tend to forget. They have a very short-term oriented brain.
We might get a lot of the answers to Kilaueas ERZ plumbing soon.
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-understanding-magma-storage-and-migration-kilaueas-active-east
HVO put out a dense seismic array back in June along the ERZ and basically got a detailed view of everything.
Halemaumau is also going up now pretty fast, about 1 microrad a day although not without variability. If this keeps going then the recent intrusion will be recovered around the start of November. It seems that after the recent Pauahi intrusions a new one would begin about a week after the break even. So my bet is another intrusion, probably a middle ERZ eruption too, in November. Otherwise ERZ filling further down and it erupts east of Pu’u O’o next year.
Great! I always wanted more focus to be put on the ERZ, the most fascinating magma plumbing on the planet.
Yes and seems like it couldnt have been timed better.
I was a little sad to see that the instruments are available again but still no GPS. They are all cut off at the same time too, so its probably just something with how HVO displays it, they can clearly still see up to present internally. At least the tiltneters are there.
Im also curious about the seismic signals right now too. The intrusion quakes are gone, the summit has continuous quakes at 5-10 km depth, there are persistent small quakes to the middle ERZ. Most notable might be that now the south flank all the way to Pohoiki seems to be seismically active, and its pretty uniform all the way, unlike before where there were definitely more quakes at the west end near Hilina pali.
I have some old captures of past-week Kilauea earthquake maps and it does look like the south flank is very active. Particularly the earthquakes east of Highway 130 may not have occurred at such high rates since the start of 2020, although is similar to levels in 2019.
Is it just me or isn’t Loki-Forgufull, Grimsvotn, and Thordarhryna been seeing a decent amount of earthquakes in the last month?
My guess is that Grímsvötn is starting to put pressure on its surroundings. Does not necessarily mean it’s close to erupting, but similar patterns could be seen before the last eruptions.
I remember a while back Carl mentioned Hamarinn was inflating faster than its neighbors, it is the volcano behind the Loki cauldrons. If this is true Grimsvotn might not be to blame on its own. Im of the opinion that Grimsvotn steals the attention from its neighbors sometimes to be honest, apart from Laki its eruptions are pretty average at best.
Hamarinn is at the north end of Veidivotn, Torfajokull and Hekla are at the other end and along the plate boundary. All are inflating too… There has been over 3 meters of extension since Laki so it might well be getting close. Although Hekla could and probably will go by itself first. Lets see if the river drying up actually is a sign.
Actually, I went over to check Skjálfta-Lísa, and there has been a very stable average 55 quakes per month over the last year. January was above average with 89, but that’s including the aftershocks of the M4. July was a slow month with only 29 registered quakes. Maybe the low number of quakes in July is why we now perceive an increase, when in fact we are right on the average.
Makes sense, this serves as a perfect example of that short-term thinking that you were speaking of earlier.
New Article on Sundhnukur magmas:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp8778
https://www.ruv.is/frettir/innlent/2024-09-26-olikt-hraun-gerir-erfidara-ad-spa-fyrir-um-naestu-gos-423202?fbclid=IwY2xjawFjX6FleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHQMa9WNvMzeh9om46Lq0Qi9PM6FcR0DR_OgTRzF4083DtqZxPvmERuQzXw_aem_ai1Qx15KbV6lFJoledE6Zw
One thing they’ve discovered: There is not a big central magma source, but many pockets (“Linsur” = lens of magma) of magma that interact with each other and do the eruptions.
This image shows the paths of magma at Fagradalsfjall and Svartsengi. Fragradalsfjall had relatively simple primitve deep magma, while Svartsengi had a variation of magma from the different magma “Linsur”:
https://myndir.ruv.is/eyJidWNrZXQiOiAicnV2LXByb2QtcnV2aXMtcHVibGljIiwgImtleSI6ICJtZWRpYS9wdWJsaWMvb3JpZ2luYWxfaW1hZ2VzL3RodmVyc2t1cmR1ci5qcGciLCAiZWRpdHMiOiB7InJlc2l6ZSI6IHsid2lkdGgiOiAiODAwIiwgImZpdCI6ICJjb3ZlciJ9fX0=
HVO released an interferogram of the recent intrusions.
It looks like there were 3 dikes, one short one right under Mauna Ulu, another that started immediately south of there and that went under the north flank of Kanenuiohamo. And the dike that erupted which seems to have started under Makaopuhi and Napau and did go a bit east of Napau but well short of the bottom of Pu’u O’o. At least that is how I see it.
The deflation in the south caldera area is impressive, 14 cm of subsidence, about 1/5 of the uplift that has happened there since a year ago. Although it is only about half of the intrusion in January as measured at OUTL. Back then though all the magma was going to the south caldera, so we got to see how high the supply really was, and OUTL was going up at rates of as high as 30 cm a month. Now it is flatlined and Napau isnt inflating, which HVO has interpreted as no ERZ supply but all that magma has to be going somewhere and the extensive seismic activity of the whole south flank above sea level tells that it isnt static anymore.
Maybe a slow slip event is occurring or has occurred. The last was in 2015, with one due in 2018 but obviously not as slow as expected. So magma is probably flowing into the ERZ about at the same rate as space is generated, like a massive slow intrusion.
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-missing-slow-slip-events-kilaueas-south-flank
Combining the InSAR, the earthquakes, and the fissure, the intrusion probably looks like the following. Indeed a triple intrusion, more or less like I guessed in the article:
I’m not sure about Napau not inflating. As of September 24 (the last data in the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory) the MMAU GPS of the Makaopuhi-Napau area was still rapidly inflating, at rates of about 0.4 cm per day:
http://geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/stations/MMAU.sta
I wasnt aware of this data, and yes it seems inflation is still extremely rapid. MMAU looks like it is already gone up about 30 cm and in only 2 months, and out of about 80 cm it dropped in 2018.
KERS has gone up 25 cm, seems Pu’u O’o hasnt updated in recent days. But RKAR east of Pu’u O’o shows a bit of uplift, 1-2 cm so presumably the uplift at Pu’u O’o is present and maybe about 10 cm if there is a gradient. JOKA doesnt seem to be lifting.
Still it makes sense that SDH isnt rising, its all going to the middle ERZ save some for Halemaumau. But why HVO says the area jsnt uplifting now really confuses me…
Although im sure you already have all this stuff plotted out 🙂
It looks in the plots that JOKA uplifted some 2-3 cm starting in late August and until the intrusion, then deflated by about the same amount towards the end of the dike intrusion. Similar to JCUZ, which however deflated sooner and somewhat more,
It looks within the range of variability of the vertical component to me but it wouldnt be too surprising if the area lost some pressure.
I guess, the summit main chamber is the primary, it has recovered completely by the looks of it. UWEV has recovered all the subsidence of 2018, and so has AHUP, on opposite sides of the caldera. CRIM and OUTL havent gone up all the way but unlike the other two these stations are within the outer caldera fault so probably moved more permanently.
The rift connectors are I guess part of the summit complex, and the SWRZ lines up better with the summit so was open immediately.
When all that is done the middle ERZ fills up, apparently that goes very fast as we have seen. I would assume once there is sufficient pressure magma can go down to JOKA, but its also now very obvious that eruptions can already happen. There was some uplift before 2018, about 5 cm over 6 years, which is also when the eruption at Pu’u O’o was generally somewhat subdued compared to a lot of the prior decades. But that was back then, when the supply was relatively lower, and particularly in the last year the uplift has been so extreme the supply could well be as much as double that of before 2018.
The 2018 caldera was half of the lava volume, and filled 0.2 km3. The rest, mostly the south caldera reservoir, is the other 0.6 km3, and that is now more than filled up. The SWRZ and ERZ intrusions so far might be as much as 0.1 km3 too including the eruptions. The fact that all of the flank intrusions, and 80% of the south caldera uplift, has happened entirely in the last year, that would imply the supply rate could be 0.6 km3 a year right now.
That, and the prevalence of continuous quakes at Pahala, it makes me think that it finally broke out.
There are three lobes of fringes in the InSAR. Look closely and note that the middle one has the fringes reversed. That’s a graben. To me this looks like the normal butterfly pattern of a shallow intrusion.
Yes, you are right, I confused a graben with a lobe. Overall it’s a normal butterfly pattern, though deep down some sort of en-echelon pattern still exists. In this area, historically, fissures tend to open multiple en-echelon fissure lines, and individual lines strike N 65º E (more or less like the segments I draw) which in the current situation needs multiple dike segments.
Same in Iceland. At depth, dykes align with the spreading direction, but the surface fissures are always slightly tilted en-echelon segments.
It looks as if Makaopuhi was the center of activity. Inflation points more towards the western MERZ. Maybe we get more eruptions and intrusions in this area. Here is a GPS station close to Makaopuhi:
?fileTS=1727450569
Page 4 in the Mauna Ulu Eruption Guide shows the landscape before Mauna Ulu: https://www.nps.gov/havo/planyourvisit/upload/mauna_ulu_trail_guide.pdf
The crater next to Makaopuhi was Alae Crater. 1840 and 1963 eruptions happened at Alae Crater. I think we should look at the old craters independently, that existed before Mauna Ulu. Maybe the Alae and Alo’i Craters still are recurring locations for eruptions contrary to monogenetic Mauna Ulu.
Its all one fissure swarm really. Mauna Ulu and Alae trend in a line at the surface, Alae is a bit offset south. But we see just recently they arent exactly segregated at all, that might only happen within 1 km of the surface in brittle rock. The craters I think are mostly too small to be singular polygenetic satellite volcanoes but might be semi independant and still areas of preferred rifting.
Makaopuhi and Napau or at least a point near them could be proper satellite volcanoes though, they are much larger than the others, and Kanenuiohamo and Pu’u O’o are huge shields just as big as those at the summit. Mauna Ulu looks similar, but it was a lot smaller, Pu’u O’o was already bigger than the entire extended Mauna Ulu eruption sequence (1961-1975) in 1985, before it even became an effusive shield. Mauna Ulu is either 3rd or 4th biggest Kilauea eruption, 1960 was also bigger, and 2018 is sometimes separated from Pu’u O’o.
Enh…I don’t think the existence of a pit crater implies a preferential location for an eruption. Take the latest eruption. It moved from outside of Napau, to inside, then back out again, with the most voluminous fissure being outside. Mauna Ulu focused between Aloi and Alae.
And assuming for the sake of discussion a pit crater depth of 100m, the subaerial height of the UERZ would allow for ~ten pit craters in the history of Kilauea in every spot along the UERZ. ( +/-considering shallowing due to landslides and invasion by later lava flows, but…)
Yes, the craters have a certain polygenetic fissure behavior. Mauna Ulu being a vent of the Aloi Crater fissure system. I should write about this at some point, the Chain of Craters and individual fissure swarms crossing each ot the craters (Keanakakoi, Luamanu, Hiiaka, Pauahi, Aloi, Alae, West Makaopuhi, and East Makaopuhi-Napau) that were active in the 60s-80s was what fascinated me the most about Kilauea at first. That said whether the craters are the center of each fissure system or just another side feature of them is something I’m not sure of.
Not volcano related but this really got my attention.
https://youtu.be/hRgi–01kA0?si=R8Yt2GVTb12qEyAr
The fact the DNA repair protein is functional in other bacteria is potentially game changing. I do think back to how so many common illnesses were just treated by drinking non lethal doses of various toxins, until we discovered genetics and could much more carefully and precisely tailor the treatment.
So long as we can find a cure for prion diseases. I think we are very lucky as a species that it seems we are naturally resistant, not immune but most animals seem to be very susceptible. Maybe our big brains have more systems dedicated to protect them than is typical for most animals.
We do have dna repair mechanisms but they seem to be held (like so many things) at the “minimum required ” level. There is likely a good reason for this in general. Some decades ago a huge trial/survey was done in the UK for the risk of radiation in homes, specifically radon which results in low level elevation of background radiation in some parts of the UK (particularly where granite abounds). From memory they chose East Anglia (very low background) and Cornwall (very high background) because both had populations that had lived there for generations and the same economic and exposure backgrounds (mostly agriculture I suspect) allowing good environmental matching. They wanted to find out how much more cancer there was in Cornwall over East Anglia. Astonishingly the reverse was found, and significantly, at the time it was suggested that the higher rate of DNA damage due radiation resulted in higher DNA repair levels which co-incidentally also repaired more pre-cancerous DNA damage.
One of many examples in biology where something harmful at high level has a non-zero optimum level.
Alzheimer’s is nor considered a prionic disease (yet).
Pigs and chickens have no reported prionic diseases even during BSE (when initially they were VERY heavily exposed). Dogs too, almost immune. Felines very susceptible to BSE (might have been the dose though).
Generally any specific prionic disease is highly species specific with infectivity declining strongly with genetic distance. Incubation period is dose and genetically dependent. To cross species barriers typically requires very high doses, or even extreme methods (like direct cranial injection, as was done for mice in BSE).
Genetic repair is not important. The prion tangle destroyers (also Alzheimer’s) are generally species of protein repair/degradation molecules (not sure if they are actually classed as enzymes). IMHO alzheimers is a consequence of inflammation or other mechanism rather than tangles being the cause, although we are getting closer to what the cause really is.
Please note that CJD (human prion disease) is spectacularly infections if it gets into a human unlike scrape where humans have been eating scrapied sheep for millennia with no apparent effect (I do not recommend it though).
It is still extremely rare to get CJD, and in a lot of animals it can be transferred environmentally as I understand, where CJD requires eating humal brain tissue or at least cannibalism. I would imagine the cases of getting it from other animals are those literally one in a million freak events that happen when you have billions of something. But I dont have any professional background related to this so I might be completely wrong here.
I have for a long time wondered if natural background radiation is beneficial or important to biology. It might well be a primary passive driver of evolution by causing mutations, given how there are always going to be natural radioactive atoms in everything, although oxygen is probably a bigger factor here. The correlation of cancer rate is fascinating.
Not as rare as you’d want. An acquaintance of mine died of it
My quick research on it before did say the large majority of recent cases have been in the UK, and it is extremely uncommon elsewhere. Not sure why but that is most unfortunate Albert 🙁
New post is up! Tallis steps into the breach
https://www.volcanocafe.org/in-defense-of-grimsvotn/