After Albert’s explanation of Afar’s volcanic and tectonic past, I will look into this region’s Holocene volcanism, and try to create the first comprehensive volcanic history of this very unstudied volcanic area.
I like Afar because the volcanoes are “naked”, what I mean is that due to a desertic environment, the lava is slow to develop a soil cover and doesn’t grow much vegetation. As such, using GIS data, like for example satellite surface reflectance imagery, digital elevation maps, elevation hillshade maps, or aerial imagery it’s possible to get a good understanding of the eruption history of Afar volcanoes. While absolute dates of eruptions are generally not known, it’s possible to use different techniques to figure out the relative order of events, including the superposition of lava flows, the interaction between lavas and water lakes that were probably formed during the African humid period, the color of the lavas as a function of weathering, silicic ash that has been found in lakes downwind of Afar, or the few lava flows whose absolute ages are known from historical accounts or surface-exposure dating. As such, despite being a region that remains very unknown, it has the potential to be understood far better than volcanic areas that are vegetated, or covered in snow, also because surface-exposure dating can be used everywhere in Afar. And it’s also a remarkably powerful volcanic province. My goal is to advance knowledge into the unexplored past of many Afar volcanoes, and hopefully motivate future research to look into it. So let’s commence!
The Stratoid Series.
The Stratoid Series is fundamental to understanding current Afar volcanism given that the area is still within this phase. This volcanic stage has erupted massive amounts of basaltic lavas and also some silicic material which has filled the Afar depression to a substantial thickness. In Central Afar, vertical cliffs of up to 1 km tall expose piles of basalt lava flows measuring hundreds of meters in thickness and often erupted within a few hundred thousand years, if not less. The bottom of the lava pile doesn’t outcrop anywhere in central Afar, only near the sides where it’s thinner, and the layer covers a circular area that is 300-400 km wide, some 100,000 square kilometers. Many maps put the Afar Stratoid Series as lasting between 4 and 1 million years ago, but this is based on dating from the 1970s that had very limited accuracy. The newest data is from a 2003 article titled, “New age constraints on the timing of volcanism in central Afar, in the presence of propagating rifts”, and puts the Stratoid Series across central Afar around 2-1 Ma ago. It should also be considered as ongoing given that vigorous volcanism continues to rapidly grow very thick basaltic lava piles in some northern areas like Alayta, the Erta Ale Range, or the Nabro Range.
It’s generally thought that the Afar Stratoid Series was caused by propagating rifts that swept west and north across the Afar depression starting from the Gulf of Aden and eventually reaching the current volcanism in the Erta Ale Range and other northern volcanoes. I believe, however, that another idea may be more appropriate. I think the Stratoid Series may have formed as magma, that was being produced under the Main Ethiopian Rift, was diverted laterally through the asthenosphere or lithosphere towards lower elevations. Based on data from Lahitte et al. 2003, the Stratoid Series would have started 3 million years ago just north of the “bottleneck” of Afar, in the area now occupied by the Yangudi and Gabillema volcanoes, this is where the Ethiopian Rift meets the Afar Depression. From here volcanism gradually swept in many directions. By 2 Ma vigorous volcanism had started in Central Afar over a broad area around present-day Manda Gargori volcano and reaching also to the Gulf Aden.
I’m not also not convinced that this was associated with propagating rifts given that the Danakil Depression where Erta Ale is located has a number of very old volcanoes, Alid and company in the north, which are located along the same rift of the Erta Ale Range, but are much older and likely predate the Stratoid Series in Central Afar, showing that rifting in this area likely has existed for quite some time. Instead, it appears to have been more of a volcanic wave spreading in the form of a series of volcanic chains, with volcanism occurring behind and ahead, but mostly within the wave. Like tentacles, the propagating chains of volcanoes leave rows of extinct volcanoes behind and concentrate most activity near the tip, the Erta Ale and Nabro ranges being prime examples of active tips, but also Dabbayra, Ma Alalta or Alayta. This leads to a dynamic environment of shifting volcanism, with volcanic systems quickly emerging and going extinct all over the region, which is a very distinctive characteristic of Afar, although is also seen over a more limited scale in Kenya and Tanzania.
In this first article, I will focus on the area where everything started, around the triple junction, which is fundamental since the main age constraints of Holocene Afar volcanism are from here, which can be used to understand volcanism elsewhere.
Google Earth image and list of volcanoes from Volcanoes of the World – Global Volcanism Program.
The African humid period
While looking at Dama Ali volcano, which is roughly over the Afar triple junction, in GIS data, I noticed some unusual platforms of lava that are located around the volcano, which at first I didn’t give much importance, but then I realized they were lava deltas formed along the coast of a water body, and this was super-interesting, since it provided stratigraphic constraints on the lava. Why is this?
A lava delta on Gabillema volcano (the eastern one).
Once I found the Dama Ali lava deltas, I started seeing them all over the place. This is the basin where the Awash river/rivers go to die. It’s an endorheic basin, there are a few small lakes nowadays that are located at 240-340 meters in elevation, the lowest outlet from the basin is at 390 meters where a dry river channel can be seen to cut through a horst. I noticed that many young lava flows that reached down to the bottom of the Awash Basin formed deltas at elevations of 380 meters, in the Gabillema, Dama Ali, or Manda Hararo volcanoes, which means the (now almost entirely dry) basin must have been filled to the brim with water, making a 5,000 km2 lake that constantly or semi-constantly overflowed north and must have discharged into the Gulf of Aden (I think the outlet being perhaps 10 meters lower than it is today due to sedimentation that has taken place since). And this is almost certain to have been during the African humid period.
The African humid period, was an interval between 14,500 and 6,000-5,000 years ago when northern Africa was much wetter than today. The Sahara was riddled with large lakes, and covered in grass and trees. Before the onset of this period, the climate had been even more arid than it is today, and there hadn’t been another humid period for over 50,000 years.
The African humid period must have affected Afar too, given that rivers from the Ethiopian Highlands pour into the depression, and it’s likely that it was at this time that the Awash basin filled to the brim with water. It was likely not just the basin of the Awash River, Erta Ale volcano also has some lava deltas that lie at around -85 meters below sea level, and show that a lake about half the extent as the one in the Awash basin at some point covered the floor of the Danakil depression. Some other smaller salt pans in the Afar region, located in areas that are nowadays always dry may have contained salty lakes at the time. Four volcanoes are located along the shorelines of this ancient lake, Gabillema, Dama Ali, Manda Gargori, and Manda Hararo:
Gabillema
Gabillema volcano towers near the southeast corner of what used to be the lake inside the Awash River basin. It’s a long-lived volcanic system that lacks the dynamism of regions further north. A steep silicic stratovolcano crowns the mountain, surrounded by smooth basaltic slopes and the eroded ruins of older silicic stratovolcanoes of the same system. The summit hasn’t erupted during the Holocene, but the volcano has an extremely rare three-rift configuration, maybe being the triple junction itself, and along each of the rifts young lava flows and craters can be seen.
Two rifts, northeast and northwest, sourced basaltic lavas during the Holocene. An eruption from each rift formed a lava flow that reached down to the basin at the time when it contained a lake, making lava deltas. In the western lava delta, some lavas managed to flow beyond the shoreline and into the lake, where they formed a bizarre pattern of lava with small curved wrinkles and shaped into a network of winding tumuli and white sediments that kind of looks like a brain or a coral. Manda Gargori has a much larger and more spectacular example of these bizarre lavas that we will see later.
Map of Holocene Gabillema lavas and ash deposits. Image from Google Earth with geologic overlay.
These lava flows are useful cause they can date the lavas to the African Humid Period, and also can be compared to other undated flows to know their rough age. Given the lava deltas show the presence of a lake then they must have formed somewhere in the 5,000-14,000 years old interval. The two flows of the lava deltas have a’a lava that doesn’t have soil (it’s black colored), and older a’a lava in the area is soil-covered or almost completely soil-covered, so a rough rule that soil-free a’a in Afar is of Holocene age can be established. A’a lava also changes in color as it weathers, where reflectance in the near-infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum increases, which can be used to infer age. In this variable, both the lava delta flows show being highly weathered (for a soil-free flow). With pahoehoe lava, it’s much more difficult to tell, since pahoehoe comes in a myriad of colors depending on how it’s emplaced and it’s also hard to tell when soil starts to form.
Using these techniques, then the only Holocene basaltic eruption from the NE rift is the one that formed the eastern delta, which has a volume of 0.18 km3, given it’s the only one with black-colored soil-free aa lava. But the NW rift has a lot of lava flows that are Holocene, erupted from tens of vents that roughly line up, one of which overlies the western delta flow. I think many of the flows formed during a rifting event where the rift was intruded repeatedly in a matter of years producing closely spaced eruptions along fissures over a length of 10 kilometers, and perhaps some of them being complex long-lived eruptions with shifting vents. The weathering of other NW rift Holocene flows, when looking at surface reflectance data, shows to be about the same as the lava delta flows, so they are all likely older than 5,000 years. The western delta eruption had a volume of 0.09 km3, while the other NW rift flows have a total of 0.53 km3.
The south rift doesn’t have young basaltic lavas but contains a rhyolite lava dome and three ash layers, which I referred to as Gabillema-A, Gabillema-B, and Gabillema-C in order of likely increasing age given their preservation. I think that because these layers have not been removed by erosion they are of likely Holocene age, and I think Gabillema-A is probably the youngest eruption of the volcano, maybe occurring in the last few thousand years. The oldest tephra layer, Gabillema-C issued from a 700-meter wide explosion crater and covers a small area of 4 km2, which is merely the part that has endured erosion due to tephra being thick or coarse, the original eruption likely having showered a far larger area in tephra. Next was Gabillema-B which was issued from two small craters that line up and presently covers 12 km2 in a dark gray ash.
The last eruption of the south rift, and probably the volcano as a whole, was Gabillema-A which started as a subplinian eruption, that gave rise to a white pumice deposit on top of Gabillema B that currently spans an area of 20 km2. The eruption transitioned into an effusive eruption that formed a 0.09 km3 rhyolite coulee of pristine appearance and deep brown color. These three explosive eruptions were likely VEI-3 events, though I wouldn’t rule out Gabillema-A having reached a small VEI-4 size.
Other than having an unusual triple rift configuration, Gabillema is relatively similar to other volcanoes in the area, bimodal volcanoes with central alkaline rhyolites and medium-sized eruptions of alkali basalts, and overall a low level of volcanic activity that is mainly a side-consequence of rifting. The total volume of Holocene lavas erupted from Gabillema is 0.9 km3.
Dama Ali
To the north of Gabillema lies the Dama Ali volcano, this volcano has many distinctive aspects. One of them is the circular shape of the volcano on a horizontal section, as opposed to most volcanoes of the area which are elongated due to the presence of rifts. This is probably because Dama Ali doesn’t seem to erupt from the rifts, most of the lava comes from the summit or from a ring of vents that surrounds the outer caldera and is probably fed from cone sheet intrusions. The caldera itself is a wonderful complex of craters nested within each other, an outer 4-km wide caldera is mostly filled and overflowed and probably dates from before the Holocene. Another 2 km wide caldera lies inside which is filled with resurgence or lava almost to the brim, and has another deep 1 km wide caldera inside. The outer caldera is pre-Holocene, but the innermost two are probably from the last 3000 years as we will see later.
Dama Ali caldera.
Another spectacular feature of Dama Ali is a series of lava deltas at 380 meters above sea level which run for a distance of nearly 60 kilometers around Dama Ali, encircling the volcano almost entirely. The volcano must have been an island at some point in time. There are two types of lava deltas found here. The first type formed where pahoehoe flows reached the ancient lake, these solidified at the shoreline so formed platforms enclosed by cliffs, and very little or no lava flowed underwater. The second type was formed where a’a lavas entered the ocean, these lavas flowed underwater making some reddish-colored underwater lavas, which did pile up vertically building deltas, but smoother than those formed by the pahoehoe lava. This episode of lava flows must have taken somewhere between 14,000 and 5,000 years ago, during the African Humid Period, so I referred to them as AHP overflows. The lavas originated both from the summit and a ring of vents that surrounds the caldera complex, they are almost everywhere covered in ash, but on one side of the mountain, beyond the ash, the a’a lava is soil-free. The AHP overflows resurfaced most of the volcano with multiple sheets of lava likely emplaced one over another. Assuming mean thicknesses of 20-30 meters the volume of this phase might be around 4-6 km3.
Two types of lava deltas at Dama Ali, the left is a pahoehoe lava delta, and the right is an a’a lava delta. The blue line represents the ancient shoreline.
There was also another eruption event during this time. Next to Dama Ali, perhaps being a flank vent, lies a volcanic structure that, according to Google, is called Āhīlē Isate Gemora YeFelek’ebet Bota. But Āhīlē Crater can also be used as an alternative. This volcano forms a complex of over 10 craters ranging from spatter cones to tuff cones that erupted pahoehoe lavas and formed an island in the lake during the AHP, now perched above the dry lakebed and on top of 35-meter tall cliffs the top of which are at 380 meters asl. The volume of the Ahile Crater eruption is 0.43 km3, it likely started as an intrusion into the lake sediments, followed by the opening of multiple vents above the intrusion and surtseyan activity, and finally sustained lava effusion for months or up to a few years.
Hillshade map of Ahile Crater. The volcanic shield is surrounded by 35-meter cliffs which are the edge of lava deltas.
Dama Ali must have been a prodigious explosive volcano too. The area around the caldera is covered in white pumice, that extends east, and almost the entire volcano is covered in a thick layer of gray ash that seems to follow topography, avoiding tall obstacles, so I think was probably emplaced as pyroclastic density currents. Parts of the flank that were probably protected from PDCs by the rim of the old 4-km wide caldera are instead covered in thick white pumice. There are no Holocene silicic lavas visible on Dama Ali, but some pre-Holocene eruptions did form rhyolite domes, and the Holocene pumice from the summit is probably rhyolitic. Within 3 kilometers to the east of the caldera, I think the ash is several meters thick or more since it obscures lava flow edges and levees. At first, I considered it as a single explosive event associated with the formation of the 2-km wide caldera, but ash layers recorded in nearby Lake Hayk may tell a different tale.
A 2018 article called “Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk, Ethiopia”, studies the age and composition of tephra layers found downwind of Afar volcanoes in Ethiopian lakes. I took a look into this data and compared the chemistry of these silicic tephras to other studied silicic products of Afar, and I was surprised to find that although the ash layers in Lake Ashenge had compositions that fit Ma Alalta and Dabbahu volcanoes, most of the compositions in Lake Hayk did not fit any volcano. The problem is that Lake Hayk ash has very low Na2O and K2O to fit potential sources of Afar explosive eruptions, the Nabro Range, the Erta Ale Range, Ma Alalta, Dabbahu, Yangudi, or Adwa, are all more alkaline than Lake Hayk ash. Among the layers with chemical data available, only the oldest dated ash (HT-12) has a composition like other sampled volcanoes and probably is from Dabbahu. Some volcanoes don’t have any chemical data like Tat Ali, Gabillema, or Dama Ali. Tat Ali activity I think is too old and I don’t see much reason why it would have an anomalous low alkalinity chemistry, particularly considering that sampled mafic lavas from this volcano are alkali basalts. Gabillema I expect has a similar chemistry as volcanoes further south like Yangudi or Adwa which erupt in a way that is very similar to Gabillema.
Dama Ali volcano has the best chance of producing the ash layers in Lake Hayk. First, it’s similarly close (200 km) to Lake Hayk as other major candidates like Dabbahu or Ma Alalta, which however do not have the chemistry to be responsible. Added to this the main dispersal of the ash seems to have been E or ENE, directly towards Lake Hayk, which would make it the likeliest candidate based on position alone. While the chemistry is not known, there is some possibility that the chemistry is unique. Dama Ali’s rift lines up with Manda Hararo to the NE which is the volcano in Afar that resembles the most a mature mid-ocean ridge in the way it erupts (it’s like a fragment of Iceland that’s embedded into Afar) so possibly the rift shared by Manda Hararo and Dama Ali has seen a greater transition towards an oceanic environment than elsewhere in Afar and could be producing lavas with unusually low alkalinity. This is why I think that Dama Ali is the most likely volcano to have sourced the ash layers in Lake Hayk, particularly it would have been responsible for at least six explosive eruptions that took place 2876−2460, 3635−2792, 3914−2913, 3981−3197, 4804−3835, 10514−8432 and 11045−8903 years ago (cal. a BP). Most explosions would have taken place after the African Humid Period, <5000 years ago, which is consistent with the thick ash that covers the AHP overflows. The layers in Lake Hayk are very thin, only up to 5 mm.
Map of Dama Ali Holocene lavas. Image from Google Earth with geologic overlay.
The stratigraphy and weathering of Dama Ali flows show that in the last few thousand years, a series of small fissure eruptions took place from the summit and upper flanks of the volcano. I numbered these flows from 1 to 8 in order of increasing age. The first eruption was Dama-8, a thin basalt or basaltic andesite flow, with a volume of 0.03 km3, that weathering shows happened a long time after the AHP overflows. Dama-8 overlies most of the ash from the earlier explosive events but is covered by some pumice and ash from what I think was the youngest explosion recorded in Lake Hayk. What I think happened is that this lava flow erupted shortly before the explosive eruption of ~2600 years ago, which may have accompanied the formation of the 2-km wide caldera at the summit. Other older explosive events may have had this mechanism when rifting events caused the summit to collapse and accidentally triggered rhyolite explosive eruptions from a shallow chamber, older generations of calderas that were shallowed by the 2-km wide collapse.
The last eruption period comprises a series of basaltic or basaltic-andesitic lava flows which overlie all the silicic tephras from Dama Ali, and probably took place within the last 2000 years. This period includes 4-6 fissure eruptions from the upper flanks of the volcano which I numbered as Dama-2 to Dama-7, which had negligible volumes. At the same time, lava lakes erupted inside the 2-km wide caldera and filled it up, and huge lava fountains issued from inside the crater which formed black scoria deposits that extend up to 1 km beyond the rim. A second caldera collapse followed, 1-km wide, with no explosions associated given that the lava lake filling the ~2600 years old caldera doesn’t have any ash on top. The final eruption of Dama Ali was a small flow that erupted from the bottom of the 1-km wide caldera, Dama-1, ending the productive eruption history of Dama Ali.
Surface reflectance data of Dama Ali lavas. From Sentinel-2 satellites.
In total, Dama Ali erupted over 4.5 km3 of lava outside the caldera, plus lava lakes that filled calderas, plus probably six or more sizable Holocene silicic explosive eruptions, at least some of which must have reached VEI 4.
Manda Gargori
Manda Gargori is a small volcano north of Dama Ali, unlike its neighbors it does not have a central volcano but instead consists of a field of lava flows, shields, and domes. There are three Holocene eruptions, including two basaltic flows (referred to as Gargori 1 and Gargori-2), and a rhyolite lava dome. The rhyolite lava is brown-colored and has a volume of 0.11 km3 with a well-preserved surface.
Manda Gargori Holocene lavas.
The Gargori-2 eruption is very interesting, half the lava flow is normal a’a lava, but the other half which occurs below 380-370 masl has a bizarre and unique morphology. The surface of lava is covered in curved wrinkles and the flow itself forms a structure of winding tumuli that in places resemble the texture of a brain and elsewhere resemble corals. The white sediment or salt deposited in concave areas makes beautiful patterns with the lava. If I had seen this landform with no context I don’t think I would have guessed it to be lava, but due to being the continuation of a normal lava flow below the level of the ancient lake, and because it resembles similar structures below the western lava delta of Gabillema volcano, it’s clear that these patterns were emplaced as voluminous underwater lava flows over the flat lakebed of the Awash basin somewhere 5,000-14,000 years ago. The Gargori-2 lava flow was a large long-lived eruption with a volume of 0.45 km3.
Bizarre-shaped submarine lavas of the Gargori-2 flow.
More unusual shapes in the Gargori.2 flow.
Gargori-2 was partly covered by the later Gargori-1 flow, in which I haven’t seen any signs of water interaction, but is almost entirely above the AHP water level, and the AHP wasn’t continuous either. The weathering is about the same as Gargori-2 so I think it’s older than 5,000 years, and has a volume of 0.06 km3.
The total volume of lava erupted by Manda Gargori during the Holocene is 0.6 km3, so not as much as the other volcanoes but highly interesting due to the bizarre underwater lavas it has, making this area in general a prime location to study the interaction between lava and water, or it would be if it wasn’t so hostile.
Manda Gargori is as far as I go in this post, in the future I hope to analyze more Afar volcanoes, but I’m not sure when the next Afar will be.
Fentale (and other volcanoes) update
There are a lot of volcanic situations ongoing. Kilauea has entered a series of fountain episodes that are getting gradually more intense as the conduit widens and matures, the eruption could easily go on for months and keep growing the lava fountains in height or maybe their height will max out at some point, some lava spurts are likely approaching 200 meters in height. Etna has erupted after several quiet months and is erupting a lava flow from a fissure, as always with Etna it’s hard to know if this will be a months-long effusion or a short event that will die out rapidly. Sundhnukur in Reykjanes should erupt soon too. There is a volcanic swarm ongoing near Santorini and Kolumbo volcanoes in Greece which is unusual as it’s happening away from the central volcanoes and could be a large dike intrusion, regarding volcanic outcomes, other than nothing happening, the most likely is probably a monogenetic volcano eruption, but at this point it’s unclear what the relation to the central volcanoes is and whether it could somehow cause them to erupt.
But the most important situation regarding this article is the Fentale dike intrusion. I was wrong to bring Dofen into the mix when I talked about the Fentale situation in my last article, although the phreatic explosion and mud volcanoes were next to Dofen it appears they were related to the Fentale dike, which is the only volcano involved. The dike itself did not directly erupt, which in hindsight should have been expected, but there have been developments at the caldera of Fentale volcano. Clouds of smog started to appear inside the caldera following the intrusion and seemed to be caused by degassing from a series of locations within the caldera floor, possibly from an incipient caldera fault. Yesterday another development took place, a M-6 earthquake occurred at the summit of Fentale carrying the same rare focal mechanism as the caldera collapse events of Kilauea and Bardarbunga. So it seems almost certain that there has been a small collapse of Fentale’s summit caldera (the ground sinking some meters). The dike drained magma from Fentale’s shallow reservoir which seems to have triggered yesterday’s collapse. A possibility is that collapse might eventually cause a rhyolite explosive eruption, similar to what happened to Askja volcano in 1875, but we haven’t seen any other such collapses happen which makes it hard to know if the Askja 1875 eruption is a usual outcome of the current situation, or a rare case, in which case an eruption would be unlikely. I think more dike intrusions are likely to take place from Fentale or even other volcanoes in the area in the future, which might eventually lead to eruptive activity.
*Edit: Investigating into the past of Afar volcanoes didn’t leave much time to be on top of the ongoing volcanic situations around the world, but thankfully a lot of people have been posting interesting details and data on Volcanocafé, that I don’t think would have been easy to find otherwise. Yesterday Mike Ross brought up the focal mechanism of the M 6 at Fentale, Squonk has been sharing seismograms of tremor events and other signals, jbean45 brought up the Fentale smoke, and Eolienne also shared seismic station data on Kolumbo, among a lot of other great comments for which I am very grateful, and would have otherwise been hard to stay up to date.
References
, , , , and (2003), New age constraints on the timing of volcanism in central Afar, in the presence of propagating rifts, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2123, doi:10.1029/2001JB001689, B2.
C.M. Martin-Jones, C.S. Lane, N.J.G. Pearce, V.C. Smith, H.F. Lamb, C. Oppenheimer, A. Asrat, F. Schaebitz (2017), Reprint of Glass compositions and tempo of post-17 ka eruptions from the Afar Triangle recorded in sediments from lakes Ashenge and Hayk, Ethiopia Quaternary Geochronology, Volume 40, May 2017, Pages 92-108, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2016.10.001
I cannot see where you are getting this from: “Yesterday another development took place, a M-6 earthquake occurred at the summit of Fentale …”
On VD that quake of M6 at 11.28 pm yesterday is described at a location 8,5 km NNE of Metehara, Oromiya, which is itself at least 10 km north of Fentale. The position war corrected today by 2,5 km even further NNE.
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/15855941/2025-02-14/20h28/magnitude6-Ethiopia.html
This could also be imagination:
“here is a volcanic swarm ongoing near Santorini and Kolumbo volcanoes in Greece which is unusual as it’s happening away from the central volcanoes and could be a large dike intrusion, regarding volcanic outcomes, other than nothing happening, the most likely is probably a monogenetic volcano eruption, but at this point it’s unclear what the relation to the central volcanoes is and whether it could somehow cause them to erupt.”
I am referring to a statement of Albert a few days ago. His predictions prove mostly correct, very impressive was the prediction of the VEI of HTHH.
The beginning was interesting esp. about the delta building. A map would be helpful though as they have 59 volcanoes believed to have been active in the Holocene.
I have to correct this, as they have two Fentales – one must be a village – so V. Fentale is north of Metehara. It is still not NNE though, but it is certainly close to the volcano. Sorry.
As long as the scientific community is unable to provide better maps for the volcanoes, the overall interest might not grow btw. Tried to find some, but became tired of looking.
The problem with maps in this region is that there many different names for the same location, perhaps in different languages which have no alphabetical similarity to English. It defeats google and apple maps. And of course, for a long time this was a war zone and inaccessible to geographers.
For a start, but without Afar>
Prominence helps, the piece is about Corbetti:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027322001111
The coordinates given by the USGS have it as 3.5 km away from the caldera rim of Fentale:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000pdu6/executive
The global USGS earthquake network is spread quite thin and earthquake epicenters can be off by bigger distances than this, so it’s consistent with a source in the caldera.
“A map would be helpful though as they have 59 volcanoes believed to have been active in the Holocene.”
That’s a true, I may add one now.
“This could also be imagination:”
There is much evidence of it being volcanic (particularly the tremors). There’s a volcanic fissure system that runs NE of Kolumbo that would be an ideal location to get a large dike intrusion, but the problem is that the EQs are being located several kilometers to the east of it. I don’t know if this is an artifact of the Greek seismic network or not, but this is the only thing that makes me hesitate about what the heck is going on there.
There is no indication for a dike formation. The pattern didn’t fit progression or localization. Mike also commented on this. The swarm was not in the Santorini-Kolumbo range of volcanics. Yesterday was the first (and very clear!) volcanic sign. The origin of yesterday’s magma is not evident. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
The secret to making predictions is to not be specific.. Ten days I go I made the prediction that “there is a chance of a small submarine eruption, a slightly larger chance of a larger earthquake near Santorini (M5-6) and a larger chance that this dies down and restarts in one or more years from now.” So I am covered no matter what happens.
You are making your predictions keeping the fate of the locals in mind. The fate matters to you which is visible in every single piece of yours, also about history. It is also what guided Carl who has seen some. And the NDVP was based on that. It was was pulled me in here in the first place. And what might push me out is wishfulness for volcanoes to erupt (not the intention of Hector though), but hard to ignore with some readers. 10 million people living around those 59 volcanoes (wonder what they live from if it is do dry). Aegean Sea in summer? Catastrophe. Better be careful and never create hysteria, and that is precisely – imho – what guides you.
Let me give it another viewpoint and angle. This (figure 1) is the
Attic-Cycladic Crystalline Complex (ACCC), much research, in case you are interested you will find it.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016TC004378
To see this as an (extensional) unit explains the quakes near the Peloponnes and Saloniki as well as the southern quakes near Iraklia (latest), and the rest of the arc. Iraklia is right south of Naxos, Thera further south, Amorgos closer to Naxos SE.
In another paper that I might have stored this was interpreted also as (Alpine) orogeny, continuation.
The faults are important. They are nearly perpendicular to the Hellenic Arc, eastern part, meeting point is in the area of unrest, and also at an angle to the NAFZ.
Hope this is interesting enough.
The area itself is old, partially Permian with research about the Triassic and also the Cretacious. Remnants of volcanism are found also further north on single islands like Paros.
The area is to say the least tectonically complex.
For specialists in petrochemistry or people who are learning about it (like also me) the following paper is helpful, five scientists from Athens, one from Austin, Texas. the area of concern figure 1:
Structural Study and Detrital Zircon Provenance Analysis of the
Cycladic Blueschist Unit Rocks from Iraklia Island: From the
Paleozoic Basement Unroofing to the Cenozoic Exhumation
Sofia Laskari 1,*, Konstantinos Soukis 1 , Stylianos Lozios 1, Daniel F. Stockli 2, Eirini M. Poulaki 2
and Christina Stourait
Source: Minerals
Nice Hector! yes these dry arid climates really helps alot to preserve geological surface morphological features that dont last very long elsewhere for very long times indeed. One quicky imagine if Afar had the same climate as northen Gabon or Goma, then these volcanic surface features woud likey be nearly long gone today. Nyiragongos lava flows vents from 1977 have all completely vanished as well have many recent Kilauea flows on humid rainforest parts there.
Thanks, Jesper. Yes, Virunga flows get quickly hidden in jungle. It’s not just that the satellite or aerial images don’t show the lava below, but probably even in the field it would make sample collection much more difficult. Now there is another advantage to desertic lava flows being studied, some methods of surface exposure dating have advanced enough that they seem to be yielding very accurate ages of lava flows, as long as they are exposed to the air, with no vegetation or snow that shields the flow from the cosmic rays, whose effects are used to estimate the flow age. So that method could end up dating accurately Afar lava flows.
Colonization is likey just as fast in Hilo on the wet lowland side of the Big island and its acually much wetter than Goma It think!
The dry conditions of the Afar Triangle remind to volcanoes in Arabia and Sahara Desert (weak hotspots). Also some USA volcanoes are in desert locations, f.e. the San Francisco Volcanic Field (Arizona) https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/san-francisco-volcanic-field
I have always looked at this area and wondered how old all those black looking lava flows were. Around Erta Ale in particular, its hard to actually tell what is very recent because it all looks like that… The 2008 lava of Alu Dallafila is nearly impossible to see amongst the rest of that lava, and no lava deltas, so it must all be later Holocene in age unless I missed something. Even the 2017-19 Erta Ale lava isnt very distinct closer to the source… I would guess the majority of both these volcanoes is younger than the AHP at least at the surface. Erta Ale could be entirely Holocene age if it jas been steady at about the rate of growth it has had recently and started on a bit of a ridge. Although the caldera edge is weathered so perhaps it is only recent that it has a lava lake after a long gap.
Im sure somewhere there must be historical records going back centuries or millennia. Ethiopia had a long history of empires and kingdoms, and trade with Egypt and the Mediterranean, and probably the Persians and through India, even possibly China. It is very near where the Nile starts so seems really unlikely that no one living in the valley further north ever went and sailed up it to see what is there… Maybe they didnt write down stuff about natural disasters unless it was a big loss. Or maybe its just that no one not from there has actually bothered to look yet and there is a whole Ethiopian volcano saga in a library somewhere to make the one in Iceland look like a kids book 🙂
I guess, at least its clear the area isnt as active as Iceland or Hawaii in a given location, except maybe for Erta Ale and Virunga. But theres a lot going on still, and lots of people live there. Its also probably going to be one of the parts of the world that see the greatest economic growth in the 20th century so a lot of these questions may soon be answered.
Some Bor Ale lavas are “weird” below 80 meters below sea level, I think they were emplaced underwater during the AHP but I’m not entirely sure. Alu Dalafilla lavas I haven’t looked into them in detail but I think are last few thousand years in age. Erta Ale might be older than one would assume, given that the east flank has soil (pre-Holocene likely). I expect the most productive Holocene volcanoes in Afar will probably turn out to be the Bor Ale-Alu Dalafilla pair, followed maybe by Alayta, but not sure how high exactly they will stand.
“Im sure somewhere there must be historical records going back centuries or millennia. Ethiopia had a long history of empires and kingdoms, and trade with Egypt and the Mediterranean”.
Probably. The one historical report that is widely known is from a 1400 AD eruption somewhere in that area (I think Alid) that was written down by the arabs, and the information was shared through trade.
Some things were written down like this (plus papyrus which might be lost):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tempest_Stele
Egypt during the 18th dynasty was larger and had possibly trade connections down there and to the Red Sea. And Theben was even larger.
There were certainly times with more water, the sea levels might have been higher as well.
Imagine the Sintflood was real, than it might have been a larger area too.
Very fascinated by the fans. Suggest you try to find another one in another area for precisely the same time. That would suggest higher sea levels. At the end of the numerous glaciations the sea levels should have been higher.
In one of the recent photosets by HVO they said the vents are about 19 meters higher than the lava field.
This points to a spot pretty far away from the active vents now, so the two vents could be as high as 970 meters elevation. HVO said 33 meters of lava accumulated in the vent area, not counting height of the cones.
All that in under 2 months, at this rate over 1 km elevation at the vents by mid year. Its not filling as a level surface anymore but actually making a shield. If that is the case by the time the 2018 caldera is able to overflow to the north into the rest of the caldera, the vents might already be close to the rim behind them and start spilling out that way. I suspect if rift connector quakes dont start up this year then the overflow scenario probably has a lot going for it.
Apparently, the difference in elevation between the clifftop above the vent, and the top of the cliff at the north of the caldera, is about 60-70 meters, and about 2 km apart. So 65 meters over more than 2000, only about a 2 degree slope angle.
Recent lava shields in Hawaii are quite a bit steeper than that, and in fact Kilauea as a whole is twice that on average, so it seems that in order to overflow into the caldera block below the Volcano House, the vents most likely need to be taller than the rim and as a result entirely reasonable to overflow the caldera to the southwest at the same time. And within a few years at current rates, in about 2028.
Building a shield over a liquid lava lake as big as this might complicate this, so its far from a certain outcome. But if this goes for a few years its likely to overflow. It will be interesting how long fountaining lasts, as Pu’u O’o and Mauna Ulu only stopped such due to conduit failure not duration, and that may be much harder in the caldera compared to on the ERZ.
It depends on how the eruption continues. The last three episodes showed an extension of eruption duration:
Episode 7: 16 hours
Episode 8: 21.5 hours
Episode 9: 22.5 hours.
At the same time the deformation curve shows that in End of December we had an all time high. Afterwards deformation was slowly negative. If we compare episode 8 and 9, there was a visible medium term deflation.
That is only showing a deflation of the summit, meaning pressure has reduced slightly in the magma chamber, which is to be expected with an open vent. Given the height of the fountains it might need the vents to reach the rim to return to December pressure levels with them still open.
And the GPS is still, right now, higher than the trigger for the eruption in Napau in September, but the ERZ is silent again. The summit has ‘deflated’ because lava can just pour out now instead of building pressure. Its the same as before 2018. In all ways except maybe absolure elevation, Kilauea has fully recovered. The pressure in the magma chamber in December was actually higher than before 2018, looking at 10 year plots. Kilauea isnt resurgent like many calderas so filling Halemaumau will need to be by erupting, as we see now.
So you have the opinion that negative deformation here is a sign for positive development? Maybe the slowly increasing time of each episode supports this view. The square miles the eruptions have to fill to get a vertical growth is very big now, because the lava field level reached the “down-droped block” which now is part of the lava area. So it may take many episodes, until the vertical growth can reach the active vents on the West Wall.
The KERZ GPS remains out of function, so we can’t watch deformation around Napau crater. But ESC Tiltmeter shows some uncertain positive development
Yes now there is an open vent pressure in the magma chamber will only be able to reach the point that makes the vent overflow.
KERZ is visible here:
geodesy.unr.edu/NGLStationPages/gpsnetmap/GPSNetMapMovable.html?latz=19.393&lonz=-155.110&zoomlev=11
Its been quiet since last year, net slight subsidence which means no magma flows this far or really out if the summit at all. SDH is active, at the start of the SWRZ connector, but the connector is quiet. So at the moment the only magma movement is out of the vent basically.
The vents are low enough that there is unlikely to be much change for a few months. The real test might be towards the middle of the year, to see if the rift connectors start getting more active, and if deformation resumes in the rift zones.
Thanks Hector! Yes, there have been large lakes in the past throughout Afar. Signs of water interaction are important. I am looking forward to the next instalments!
Thanks, Albert. It will probably take a while for the next pieces to come out, though.
I think it’s quality work.
I do not like GeologyHub’s last video at all.
I believe he’s very wrong about Santorini though. He didn’t mention the long duration earthquake/volcanic tremor in his last video, which i feel if you’re gonna make an update is at least something you should cover and he did not do that. Instead he turned down all other claims as false, based on the notion that if something isn’t proven it is considered false, but… so is the claim that the earthquakes are tectonic. That’s not proven either because it is (increasingly) being considered in doubt. He says “as an expert”, the ones who counter his claims also are geologists from Turkey & Greece, so why would he be correct and the other ones not. I don’t like this argument of authority, it is 1. pricky and 2. no proof of everything because experts and smart people can be wrong too.
I definitely concur, I don’t think it’s a good video. He even finished the video by saying that it should be in theory safe in Santorini as long you avoid cliffs. There is literally an emergency placed on Santorini & 3 other islands by the Greek government.
He literally ignored the tremor event.
This is a much better source about what is going on
EMSC report:
https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/the-seismic-swarm-in-greece-gets
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Files/event/1765158/20250213b-santorini-seismo-volcanic-crisis-gnss.pdf
Couldn’t agree more, kudos!
But the model from earthquakeinsights also does not really work. A dike injection would have causes deflation at the origin and therefore cannot explain the inflation at Santorini. There was indeed a small swarm underneath the Santorini caldera in the summer. I felt this was unrelated to the current events. The major swarm itself really was purely tectonic. Now tectonic quakes can be triggered by pressure from magma from below but this particular area is not known to be particularly volcanic. This was a rifting event, in my opinion. This did affect Santorini and caused the slight inflation there, either as distant rebound or by decreasing stress on the magma chamber caused by the rifting. The volcanic signal two days ago was very clear but has not repeated. This may indeed be some magma intruding into the rift in the earthquake zone.
Santorini is never fully ‘safe’: there is a volcano at the centre which erupts every 50 years or so. But 4 cm of inflation is not an immediate sign of danger. That would need a series of earthquakes below the caldera which has not happened.
The inflation was observed on the northern side of Santorini if I’m not mistaken. Extrapolate the lineament of the quakes, and you realise that the inflation could possibly be explained by the northern part of Santorini being on the footwall side of a normal fault, which is what the focal mechanisms suggest.
Pl take a look at what I wrote to Albert, tenth comment from top, you might be interested.
Seems like I got it wrong. The uplift was at the northern part, yes, but the northern part of Nea Kameni, the resurgent volcano in the middle of the caldera. I think it’s safe to ignore my previous comment.
Also, if there’s a dyke, it doesn’t originate from Santorini. Neither the distribution of quakes, nor the observed deformation suggest that. Are there GPS stations at other islands in the area?
Never fully safe, agreed. If they want safety they have to remove all tourism from there and do day trips from other islands. It is certainly easier to evacuate some locals than these armies of tourists that overrun Santorini and also Mykonos (both grotesquely hyped) in summer. If not it is not a place where safety can be guaranteed.
https://www.santorini.com/santorinivolcano/volcaniceruptions.htm
They are small though, but still.
How did deformation and seismicity look like before the 20th century eruptions at Santorini?
This website explains a bit: https://www.santorini.com/santorinivolcano/volcaniceruptions.htm
1925 and 1939 the eruptions were preceded and accompanied by rising geothermal heat.
“The eruption, which began on August 11th, was heralded by tremendous fountains of steam and water in the area of Kokkina Nera (where the Hot Springs are). Volcanic activity included marked increase in temperature in the bay of the Kokkina Nera, the sinking of Nea Kameni’s east coast and the formation of the Daphne dome (named after the first war ship to arrive on the scene immediately after the eruption).”
” Early in May 1939, it was observed that the waters in the little bay of Agios Georgios with its chapel, were heating up, and the coastline was subsiding. “
Do not agree as 1) he is a geologist who is experienced in also field work, and these have always been the best, 2) there are always several opinions in science, and it matters less who is right than to get to some conclusions by debating things.
If he left out the series of quakes he might have covered them before, and that would be sufficient.
(to the admin: please delete my previous reply its with my name and I dont want to show this kind of info)
For me personally, volcanocafe will remain the only source for info from now on… I like Albert’s opinion, he is looking the situation from different angles and gave interesting info, without big conclusions. Because we don’t know what exactly is going underneath and can’t just jump to conclusions, especially when its a big youtube channel with 300k subs. Well said, bravo!
What’s the risk that the earthquakes near Santorini affect stress on other faults in the region changing the risk levels for earthquakes there? There was a mag 5 earthquake in Thessaloniki today. I guess this is just coincidence, but it did make me wonder about the fact that the Aegean is a complex mish mash of faults that could get affected by movements elsewhere.
The Anatolian fault around Istanbul comes to mind as that is a high risk area without an earthquake for a long time, and while it’s quite far away from Santorini, could jostling across the region ripple to finally release that section?
What is the risk that small or large earthquakes could become more likely elsewhere, and how far away is that risk?
By the way that GlobalQuake website someone posted with the Raspberry Shake detectors is very addictive! I’m surprise it doesn’t get more earthquakes from Japan, but I’m guessing density of network is the reason.
My question too. It is not even that far, 500 or so km, but the distance is not so decisive. Extension might be decisive. In any case the quake near Theassaloniki is astonishing.
There was a quake with three aftershocks in Thessaloniki while I was living there, large enough to cause some damage on the west side of the city. I have never been able to find any details of magnitude however. It was probably late 2001 or more likely, 2002 and probably m4.3+.
https://greekreporter.com/2025/02/15/santorini-earthquakes-volcanic/ suggests Santorini quake swarm may be volcanic not tectonic.
Wow, Héctor! Hugley impressive work. Thank you!
I had Google maps open to explore the area alongside the article.
In the Hanish Island area, this made me chuckle: https://postimg.cc/mcBrfWZg
“Hugley”. Oh dear. It was meant to be hugely. The letters move around on my keyboard.
Amorgos is decidedly non recent-volcanic, mostly made up of Flysch, Marble & Dolomite.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/43476102_Structure_and_Metamorphism_of_Amorgos_A_field_excursion
The seafloor south-west appears to be littered with vents so perhaps magma leakage in the Shear Zone has been quite common, Santorini on the other hand could be fed from the shear zone and the subduction arc.
Thank you Hector for the map you added which explains what you were looking at.
Btw did you see my comment to you at all under the last piece about the volcanic area between Puerto Natales and Punta Arenas? Could make a nice read one day.
Plus very interesting paper about another geothermal area further north of Dama Ale in the Danakil desert (Dama Ale being on the southern border) which is thought to have been flooded in toto by the Red Sea once, mud volcanoes, phreatic explosion craters and domes. Free download.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-the-Afar-Triple-Junction-showing-GPS-velocities-with-respect-to-Nubia-and-focal_fig2_345985550
“The land surrounding the Danakil Depression was once part of the Red Sea. The salt deposits were created when water from the Red Sea flooded the area and then evaporated. The most recent flood was roughly 30,000 years ago. While the water is gone, salt remains in extraordinarily large quantities, and has proven to be a valuable — and fatal — commodity for locals.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danakil_Desert
“Erosion, inundation by the sea, the rising and falling of the ground have all played their part in the formation of this depression. Sedimentary rocks such as sandstone and limestone lie unconformably with basalt which resulted from extensive lava flows. The land surrounding the Danakil Depression was once part of the Red Sea. While the water is gone, salt remains in extraordinarily large quantities, and has proven to be a valuable — and fatal — commodity for locals.”
https://www.atlasofhumanity.com/danakil
Beautiful pictures. Blue eyed nomads, camels crossing a salt lake, this taken by Trevor Cole.
Extraordinary pictures from Ethiopia, brillant, gallery:
https://www.atlasofhumanity.com/danakil
Interesting. The GOM was a shallow sea over a spreading center as well.
It accumulated the louann salt.
Yes, also reaching up into Texas, covering the Permian Basin.
Might be interesting for you:
“PLATA DEPOSITS
Playa deposits, some of which include salt, occur through much of
the western part of the country. A playa, sometimes referred to as a
“dry lake,” is-defined as a level or nearly level area that occupies the
lowest part of a completely closed topographic basin. During periods
of heavy rainfall the playa becomes a temporary lake, and thinly
stratified layers of silt and clay are deposited in the lakebed. As a
temporary lake dries up, the dissolved salts in the water are deposited
as evaporites, among which salt and several carbonates and sulfates of
sodium are most abundant. With repeated lake-filling and drying
out, thick deposits of interstratified silt, clay, and crystalline salts
may accumulate in the lower parts of the playa.”
“Muessig and others (1957) reported that as much as 1,070 feet of
playa deposits underlie Soda Lake in San Bernardino County, Calif,”
“The evaporite beds from the surface to
a depth of about 250 feet are essentailly sodium chloride, but the
evaporite beds below that depth are mostly sodium sulfate. At the
south end of Death Valley, in the northern foothills of the Avawatz
Mountains, salt occurs in folded and faulted Tertiary lakebeds.”
Summary of Rock Salt Deposits
in the United States
as Possible Storage Sites
for Radioactive Waste Materials
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BULLETIN 1148
published by USGS
https://trevcole.1x.com/album/5818
Forgot Trevor Cole link, enjoy
Etna summit with ash plumes: https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/sicilia/catania/vulcano-etna.html
The ash plume reminds to some moderate versions of Grimsvötn eruptions, but is caused by gasrich basaltic magma. How would Etna in Vatnajökull erupt like?
The colors of tephra are often a good indicator for the magma composition. Rhyolite white, Basalt black. Do certain Alkali magmas also do white tephra?
While checking out imagery from the new 4K camera aboard the ISS, I came across this interesting video from sen.com of the November 24, 2024 Svartsengi Eruption filmed by the ISS, apparently the station was right in the top of its loop at the moment. Please see https://www.sen.com/video/110e3b0c-1e2f-43a3-8c29-486bb9ab8c28
Made a little 3d python visualisation of the Santorini Earthquakes…. there is a playlist with different views too.
maybe not as good as Geolurkings works, but hopefully satisfying enought.
sorry, forgot to put the link in there:
BRAVO!
Not remotely up to geolurks efforts of yesteryear, I guess those days are past.
Mind you the database may be inferior.
To my ignorant mind it looks like something rising.
Thank-you Kodachrome! It looks like an intrusion, maybe it remains a “Pluton” that never erupts.
Campi Flegrei, M3,9 today, 14:30 UTC, felt in the center of Napoli also:
https://www.napolitoday.it/tag/campi-flegrei/
181 earthquakes of magnitudes between M0.1 and M3.9 at hypocenter depths of 4.32-0.01 km during the past 24 hours says the volcanodiscovery, the highest magnitude same as with Kolumbo.
Hello again!
I have been mostly lurking and reading as of lately, but I found some interresting reports today that I have not seen shared.
The Greeks are (as usual) in an eternal state of mess when it comes to publishing and sharing all available data so to find the relevant data themselves… good luck. Since I live there five months a year (Chios) this is quite normal in most repects, but I found this reported friday;
“Over the past ten days, we have seen reports of increased gas emissions and rising water temperatures—clear signs that Nea Kameni is showing activity. Until now, seismologists denied any link between the recent tremors and volcanic activity, but they are now reconsidering after observing secondary effects. ”
https://www.tovima.com/society/santorini-earthquakes-greek-professor-downplays-immediate-risk-of-new-volcano-forming/
To verify I guess one would need someone access to the ongoing assessments, so maybe…? “The last ten days” caught my attention. But again. Statement -> reporter is not confirmation. Interresting if it is verifiable. And could prove to be weak signals.
Still. In some sense it reminds of the recent Icelandic rifting. Tectonic and volcanic both. The mechanisms/speed are different, but still. At certain geological times it *has* happened in past, and obviously will happen – and happens – again. If this incident has been tectonic/volcanic from the start it might not be inconcieveable that some heating/softening (into a percieved dike) has taken place so as to reduce EQ-intensity? Speculations of course, but in lack of more data available that is what we have. And to explore possible scenarios that will be proven false or (somewhat) correct retrospect I think it at least is worth consideration.
We are leaving for Chios, Greece before greek easter, and I do not see any reason not to as of now. Interresting to follow the development however. We’ve been there during a 6,9 in the North Agean in may of 2014, some experince with shaking we have, but nothing like the 1881 in Chios of course. It is nothing any locals think of very much of either, exept drilling on EQ’s (from small in school), knowing what to do aso.
The greek newspaper https://www.ekathimerini.com/tag/santorini/ has had a few interresting articles from the social and inhabitants perspective the last few days. All in english.
Thank you to the writers and commenters on Volcanocafe. Always my nr.1 goto for everything Volcanic. 😉
This is a purely scientific voice now, shook off the burden:
“Tselentis, who resigned from Greece’s earthquake risk assessment board, citing political interference in scientific work, last week, addressed the situation in a social media update on Sunday morning, accompanied by scientific data visualizations.
He emphasized the need for an open-minded approach in science, advocating for broad perspectives and creative thinking rather than rigid dogma.”
https://www.tovima.com/society/greek-seismologist-hopes-kolumbo-volcano-magma-rise-moderate-not-violent/
PS Chios should not be concerned. I would sit more in the background on the beach though.
Seems a bit harsh, but considering the Iceland/Blue Lagoon fuzz, this probably might be similar, though I do not remember anyone having to resign an advisory committee there. Tourism is huge in Greece, so they might just be allergic to any “unnecessary scares”. After economic crisis and covid within less than 10 years. Well, the Blue Lagoon is still there, so maybe rightfully. I am just glad I do not have to have a say in such matters. Must be difficult.
Yes, Chios is not a problem. We can while at home actually see Samos, the turkish mountains SE of Samos, Fourni and Ikaria on clear days. A few times (usually in winter/spring) we have also seen Mykonos and Tilos. Amazing view at 400 m asl. with views from N-NE to SW. Only issue is we love quiet beaches wo cellphone coverage and that could be an issue. Even though those civil protection text messages can make you jump higher than an well sized EQ… 😀
Akis Tselentis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens | uoa · Geology
MSc, PhD, DIC, FSTP, 120 publications
Biggest one for a while. Manually checked.
Directly under Anydros
Origin Time: 2025-02-16 20:56:00 (GMT)
University of Athens
Magnitude M 4.3
Latitude 36.6222° N
Longitude 25.6937° E
Focal Depth 7 km
# of Arrivals 28
Location 32.6 km NE of Thira
60.7 km SSE of Naxos
230.1 km SE of Athens
Solution type manual
Followed by a rapidly manually verified 4.4 at
Magnitude M 4.4
Latitude 36.5948° N
Longitude 25.6392° E
Focal Depth 7 km
Origin Time: 2025-02-16 23:08:58 (GMT)
And a 5.1 this morning
2025-02-17 07:49:51 (GMT) Magnitude M 5.1
Haha I guess an unfortunate crashing with a small plane Nabro volcano ( thats a very remote and isolated area in Afar ) is a very bad idea if you does not haves any ability for reach for outside contact aids, and much worse even is a remote crashing on the Tibesti Mountains of course but modern planes today have excellent communication. Since Tibesti Mountains in northen chad are isolated from anything else that woud be the worst crash scenario you dies of thirst long before rescuse can get you I guess, due to the extreme isolation there. Tibesti Mountains I finds really disturbing due to their extreme isolation and barren waterless nature, they seems nearly devoid of life, in Antarctica you can at least eat snow if you got any ultra thick clothes but food is important too to keep warm. Both Afar and Tibesti Mountains is an very eerie foreshadowing of what to come in the far far far future when the ageing sun gets brigther and global temperatures soars and the terestrial ecosystems turns into deserts due to rising temperatures and lowering co2 due to stronger sillicate weathering, Afar is totaly alien yet thats how the far future Earths global climate will look like, there will be a time in the future 1100 million years when the only land life left will be extremophile bacteria in warm saline pools on the dired out continents. Evolution in this dying biosphere will go in the reverse brutaly leaving only hardy microbes left.. deserts can be eerie, it shows Earths past when there where no soil on land, it shows Earths far future under an ever warmer sun
Earth in 1000 million years will be eerie indeed…the lands are likley completely empty,. its hot, its barren even where it rains its barren, not a insect sound, not a tree even and the life that remains, still exists mainly residing in the oceans. Increasing solar luminosity, lowering co2 due to weathering is sucking the lifeblood out of the biosphere. Maybe the landscapes maybe having some odd future fungus in symbiosis with ground bacteria rising through the eerie desert like pillars, despite lower co2 than during the LGM 10% more solar luminsity means most of the planet will be very hot, but perhaps livable for time travelling humans if we emerge at night oxygen levels will also drop as plants struggle to find co2 when solar scrubbing ( rainfall weathering ) gets more and more intense, plants and plankton will dissapear due to co2 starvation death valley, lake natron and sahara as well as arabia are creepy analogus present scenery to that far future, since the sun was born it have gotten over 30% brigther and it will keep doing so.
Campi Flegri has also been rather active this week, hundreds of earthquakes, most have been really small.
Getting a bit much to follow! An M 4.4 at Andryos followed by 11 mins later by a 3.9 at you know where
Hard to know, when it’s usual Campi Flegrei earthquakes and when it’s significant more (preceding an eruption).
The thing that strikes me is that many of the larger quakes in this series do have an unusually high CVLD component. But i’d like to see an assessment of b values too.
What is clear is, that even manually checked earthquakes lack the amount of fine resolution to make a clear distinction between the ones that are tectonic and which ones fluid related. There should be a seismometer at each of the surrounding island to get better triangulation data. Similar to what was done in Iceland.
To me there are distinct features that indicate similarities to both Reykjanes but also the tapping of Bardarbungas Magma domaine in 2014-15. (Subsidience at Santorini and displacement north/south and east/west)
Are we getting close now to the soon-to-come Iceland Svartsengi eruption time?
shows some wavering now on the height although the east and north appear consistent.
GPS show a concave development, a decreasing inflation. http://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/reykjanes.html
Is it an indicator that the eruption series has passed its peak or that a geophysical factor has changed?
I would guess that like before, this indicates no more expansion room available, and we are very close to the eruption now.
Yes, maybe it’s like the deflation tendency of Kilauea because of an open system. If this is true, the next episode will begin with a sudden lava flood. Hopefully the borehole method will work to facilitate emergency management.
The Iceland Meteorological Office posted today about the nearness of the next Svartsengi eruption, and I am sure they are carefully watching borehole pressures.
a few good studies i recently read….
We have regional faulting and graben structures… like in Reykjanes
We have repeated melt injections, like with Eyjafjallajökull etc
We have a recently discovered gravity anomaly, indicative of an active magma domain
A system that might be more evolved than the current state of knowledge suggests (lack of actual research in the system)
Quote from a paper: “Kolumbo is the most active center of seismic (Andinisari et al., 2021; Bohnhoff et al., 2006; Dimitriadis et al., 2009; Schmid et al., 2022) and high-temperature hydrothermal activity within the SVF (Carey et al., 2013; Hübscher et al., 2006; Kilias et al., 2013; Rizzo et al., 2016; Sigurdsson et al., 2006). It last erupted in 1650 AD in a highly explosive, tsunamigenic event (Ulvrova et al., 2016) which produced a few km3 of hydrous, biotite-rich rhyolitic lava (Cantner et al., 2014; Konstantinou, 2020). Despite the high heat and gas fluxes (Rizzo et al., 2019) which suggest an elevated magmatic activity, little is known about the underlying magmatic system.”
Heralds of Future Volcanism: Swarms of Microseismicity Beneath the Submarine Kolumbo Volcano Indicate Opening of Near-Vertical Fractures Exploited by Ascending Melts
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GC010420
Magma Chamber Detected Beneath an Arc Volcano With Full-Waveform Inversion of Active-Source Seismic Data
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GC010475
A Preliminary Hazard Assessment of Kolumbo Volcano (Santorini, Greece)
https://www.mdpi.com/2624-795X/5/3/41
Can we compare the Santorini situation with Krakatau/Krakatoa?
There is a macro-geophraphical subduction zone, in which there is a micro-geographical extension zone that hosts the caldera volcano.
Regional extension, yes.
Here is a very good paper, not sure it’s posted already:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023TC007951
Titke of the paper above:
Extensional Faulting Around Kolumbo Volcano, Aegean Sea—Relationships Between Local Stress Fields, Fault Relay Ramps, and Volcanism
A lot of Subduction Arc volcanism sits on similar regional extension settings due to the subducting plate pulling the overridding plate slightly down
Extension resembles a divergent plate boundary on micro scale. So we have a big subduction zone dynamics with many subduction zone volcanoes, where sometimes extraordinary extension zones can appear with untypical volcanoes for the larger volcano zone.
F.e. Indonesia’s classical subduction zone volcanoes on Sumatra and Java are different to Krakatoa volcano. Italy’s Etna (on an extension zone) is different to Vesuvius and the Lipari volcanoes. Santorini is different to the other, more viscous volcanoes of Greece. The USA have with the Basin and Range Province a large extension zone with several volcanoes close to the the Pacific subduction zone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basin_and_Range_Province#Geology
And both are on continental crust. yes, there are similarities.
“A system that might be more evolved than the current state of knowledge suggests (lack of actual research in the system)”
Well. The two papers you linked (thanks very much) show precisely the opposite: There is obviously ample research in the area by a team who also do research near Montserrat and some other places. Conclusion of the second paper based on the first paper which gives us an analysis of other swarms in the past:
“provides unique evidence for magma transport to the shallow crust and a direct image of the resulting magma chamber beneath Kolumbo volcano. The current state of the reservoir indicates that an explosive eruption of high societal impact in the future is possible (though not imminent), thus we suggest establishing a permanent observatory involving continuous earthquake monitoring and seafloor geodesy.”
@ Albert
It would be very helpful and nice if you could store these two (consecutative) papers under “The Beauty and the Beast” with The Other Beast to find them easily in the future.
“Campi Flegrei, notte di terrore: sui social le immagini del terremoto”:
https://www.napolitoday.it/cronaca/terremoto-campi-flegrei-17-febbraio-2025.html
I guess even a moderate earthquake can be very scary when you know what’s underneath causing it?
There is s.th. a bit unclear to me. As far as I got it Kolombo does miss a resurgent dome. So, if the magma underneath came up there would be first dome-building. Or not?
Comparable example: A submarine caldera, twice as large, three times as deep under sea-level, time of caldera formation not precisely known, but estimated as a few thousand years ago, in the caldera a resurgent dome though:
“The age of the caldera is unknown, but it may be as young as several thousand years. Its magma tic system at depth retains sufficient heat………… Sufficient time has elapsed, however, for a 250-m-high postcaldera dome to grow on the caldera floor and for the caldera rim to be deeply scalloped by slumping.
https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/113/7/813/183751/Submarine-silicic-caldera-at-the-front-of-the-Izu?redirectedFrom=PDF
Aside from this there are eight other submarine calderas in Japan which I will check. Although subduction is different here, i.e. steep-angle, the setting itsself with an island-arc and an orogeny behind in Eastern Japan might offer some clues by comparison.
Another volcano over there is Nishinoshima
https://www.volcanocafe.org/nishinoshima-the-seminal-eruption/
https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-little-volcano-that-could/
which started growing in 1974 from a caldera rim which had reached the sea level. No big deal so far. It might be a big deal if NN grew enough to collapse and form a new caldera. Not for the surroundings (Lonely looking Sky, lonely Sky, lonely Sky), but triggering a tsunami.
So, I wonder a bit about worries about a caldera 500m down without if I got that right a resurgent dome and certainly without any physical contact to the sea level.
Also this Star Wars Appearance seems to have caused little trouble and – well – was on sea-level when it erupted 2021
Fukutuko-Oka-No-Ba
Cute name
https://www.volcanocafe.org/japan-the-fukutuko-oka-no-ba-eruption/
Thera though has a resurgent dome. With Kolombo I am missing the point.
Then again this one only began to cause some problems when a marriage between volcano and sea level had happened:
“The sea floor at the eruption site is 130 metres (430 feet) below sea level, and at this depth volcanic emissions and explosions would be suppressed, quenched and dissipated by the water pressure and density. Gradually, as repeated flows built up a mound of material that approached sea level, the explosions could no longer be contained, and activity broke the surface.”
Later state:
“The explosive phreatomagmatic eruptions caused by the easy access of water to the erupting vents threw rocks up to a kilometre (0.6 mi) away from the island, and sent ash clouds as high as 10 km (6.2 mi) up into the atmosphere.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surtsey
It has to be noted, that the growth began 130 m below sea level, not 500m.
There is certainly also a piece about Surtsey on VC. Yes, several, one here:
https://www.volcanocafe.org/surtsey-the-birth-of-the-modern-world/
Then there is Fani Maore which grew 800 m (from 3.500 m below sea level) in a short few months or years, but this volcano is regarded as a huge exception concerning the speed of growth:
https://news.cnrs.fr/articles/fani-maore-the-submarine-volcano-that-shook-mayotte
OT, from link above about Fani Maore, French science at work:
“The genesis of the Comoros was thought to be due to a hot spot, upwelling plumes of magma fed by the underlying mantle that melt through the Earth’s crust, leading to the emergence of island chains such as the Hawaiian Islands or the Azores.
This theory, already challenged in 2018, collapsed with the eruption of Fani Maoré and the research campaigns that followed. Researchers now believe that the archipelago actually lies on a weak zone of oceanic crust that forms a diffuse boundary between the Somali Plate and a second, smaller one called the Lwandle Plate.
According to Famin, these two plates are sliding past each other in opposite directions, causing magma to rise. “Volcanism in the Comoros is plate-boundary volcanism,” he says. “We believe that this volcanic region is in fact a continuation of the East African Rift that then extends towards Madagascar. To confirm this, we need to date and analyse the rocks we collected.”
As always, new discoveries raise fresh questions. “We still have to reconstruct the history of volcanism in the region. We also need to determine the relative motion of the two plates and see whether it has changed over time,” Van Der Woerd adds.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lwandle_plate
Finally I seem to have a glimpse of looking at these remote volcanoes:
“. The site is however rather remote and is not given a high priority on any side of the border. Nevertheless, the railway line project to link Dallol and Mekele to the port of Tadjourah, if engaged, would renew the interest for this potential geothermal site.”
From: Proceedings, 7th African Rift Geothermal Conference
Kigali, Rwanda 31st October – 2nd November 2018
Geothermal resource along the border:
The Ethiopia-Djibouti case
Jacques Varet (Dr.)
SARL Géo2D
Railway from Djibouti City Nagad to Addis-Abeba (going right by Awash near Fentale):
https://www.gihub.org/connectivity-across-borders/case-studies/addis-ababa-djibouti-railway/
corr. glimpse of the significance
And he lives basically where the flood basalt is, on both sides of the Red Sea, and only there,
Hamadryas Baboon.
pic from a zoo though
stupid
Flood Basalt Inhabitant
Maybe they show us how the first humans in the area got used to volcanoes as well … and addicted
You can be addicted, but you have to solve the food/ and water question.
They love salt. There is a story that bushmen build a salt trap and that they eat all the available salt. Then they look for water and the bushman follows. They are much more inventive in finding water. So man, I guess (the ancestor) also lost some qualities when he got up which is normal.
So when he had no baboon to show him he might have opted for walking. He might have walked until he found some water, max three days. If his brain was developped enough at the time he might have figured out that it is better to walk in the night. It might not have been enough water though, so he walked on – some would have died, also the leopard might have taken some, but enough survived.
If he walked north he found the rivers coming from the mountains in Eritrea and flowing towards the Red Sea. There was also antelope and fish. Also fruit.
Some went on because “they had gotten addicted to walking”. Maybe.
Addiction might be inherited.
INGV in Italy sent out a false notification of 9.0 at Campi Flegrei earlier. Popped up on loads of apps…
BEGIN
MSG_TYPE DATA
MSG_ID 20250217_175514
DATA_TYPE BULLETIN ISF2
EVENT 41453441 Campi Flegrei
2025/02/17 17:46:32.53 Mag 9.0 +/- 0.3
They have since posted on xtwitter
https://x.com/INGVterremoti/status/1891559795913585023
Oops.
Why not check the news first?
La Repubblicca, Napoli, 1,2,3,4 nothing 5th news: 3.2 in the morning. You need no Italian to get that.
It shocked me slightly, although not really, as we would have felt it.
https://napoli.repubblica.it/?ref=RHHD-MS
If there had been a real 9.0 I’m not sure their websites would be up to check 🙂
But yes it was obviously false when I saw it pop up on emsc. Took them hours to delete it.
haha! Don’t panic!
Is there a possibility for Fentale to experience an eruption somewhat similar or comparable to Laki? Or is that idea crazy? Just thinking out loud because of the subsidence in the crater, and because of it being a geologically similar setting to Iceland and because of the dyke.
Given theres no flows abything like Laki antwhere in Ethiopia, seems pretty unlikely. But something of 0.1-1km3 range isnt impossible. But Fentale doesnt seem to be a very big erupter, at least normally. If ut does erupt its probably going to be some small rhyolite flows near or in the caldera or some basalt on the rift near the volcano but probably not the far end, no young lava there but lots of faulted terrain.
The main risk is that this probably isnt going to be a one off, and the whole branch of the rift zone nearby is likely to move. Some of the other volcanoes might not be so ‘friendly’. Corbetti is already active and if rifting goes off there that might be a top 5 of all history for biggest eruption, potentially, and a lot worse than a Laki sized lava flow.
But this is all a guess on my end too, its hard to say anything for sure.
About how far underwater would the Gargori-2 flows have been? I always think of flows like that forming either in deeper oceanic settings or maybe subglacially. I had seen those in maps but assumed that they were just a subaerial flow that had been partially eroded by …something.
Those snaky structures though remind me of spaetzle. WHY do volcanoes always make me think of food? I must be in need of an intervention.
“About how far underwater would the Gargori-2 flows have been? ”
Not much, about 10-30 meters underwater. Seems more due to the effects of water-induced cooling than pressure.
I think I have seen similar flows in the bathymetry of the North Hawaiian Arch volcanic field, but I’m not sure due to the bathymetry’s low resolution. But, if it’s the same, then there’s a whole nest of vipers in the Pacific seafloor.
Me and Albert working on two VC posts from one of my most special volcano visits. Part 1 s text is now completed and now we will insert the photos in it. The photos have turned out to be very difficult in need of alot of compression and we will save the best stuff for part 2
Part 1 is soon complete
Kodachrome,
thank you for your three links further up. This explains s.th.:
” 3.1. Seafloor Analysis
The Kolumbo crater is characterised by medium slopes on its western flank, but it is dominated by steep slopes on its N, E, and SE flanks, according to the slope map generated by the DEM (Figure 5a,b). These areas can be considered unstable, and we believe that they pose a significant threat that could trigger a slope failure.”
So, what they are afraid of is a tsunami I guess.
This, on the other hand, is static thinking I would assume:
“Kolumbo, located 7 km NE of Santorini, is an underwater active volcano. Its eruption in 1650 CE triggered a devastating tsunami and emitted toxic gases, resulting in casualties and extensive damage in Santorini. Recent studies indicate that a potential eruption could pose a significant threat to the eastern coast of Santorini, yet there exists no established management protocol for such an event.” (Btw, casualties is right and extensive is a grotesque exaggeration, one of those.)
Static thinking because 3.600/3.700 years ago that same volcano might have been above sea level with its crater rim.
“It was first noticed by humans when it breached the sea surface in 1649–1650.” Kolumbo,wikip.
Just like this guy:
and this is the left-over, the caldera is underneath:
The tsunami though is a real risk. The islands are altogether the subaerial peaks of the Pindus Range, a part of the Dinaric Alps, yet some damage should be expected in lower parts. But it is not the Dogger-Bank.
Koay, mistake is clear.
The left-over:
I hate that static thinking. Everything moves. Panta Rhei
Kolumbo in 1650 BC was a totally different building, nicely reconstructed in this paper:
“To evaluate the tsunami potential of flank deformation, we extrapolated the present-day southeastern flank slopes toward the sea surface to reconstruct a cone that just breaches the sea surface (Fig. 5) to be consistent with eyewitness accounts”….
Eyewitnesses therefore testified that the volcano rim was subaerial which as we saw with HTHH can be dangerous.
The stability of the building plays a major role as well, and the authors consider the western flank of the ~1650 BC volcano unstable and explain it in the paper:
” The 1650 pumice deposits were sensitive to slope failure triggered by dynamic loading because rapid deposition precluded the development of cohesion and the exceptionally low deposit density (~1250–1500 kg/m3) resulted in low effective stress within the cone. We suggest that the pronounced material contrast between the cone and the older, underlying volcanic material, as well as the steeper northwestern slope (19° compared to ~6° elsewhere), explains why the failure occurred on the northwestern flank. Eruptive activity was accompanied by earthquakes noted in the eyewitness reports.”
A totally different edifice back then, partly subareal, one of 24 volcanoes in the Kolumbo Volcanic Chain, built up ~350 kyrs ago.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-42261-y
Good paper. Maybe they should consider sending Morelia Urlaub here. She has worked on dangers of flank collapses (Hawaii, Ritter Island, Etna and Anak Krakatau).
https://www.pre-collapse.eu/
It’s kind of interesting that the 1650 Caldera forming event probably was triggered by a flank collapse similar to Mt. St. Helens. So the slope failure exposed a larger diameter of the Feeding Vent, which meant that there likely was an instant ultra phreatic explosion of the upper feeder system (aka the top 500 meter of the cone). The explosion was heard in an area up to 400km from the source… so similar mechanisms at play with a lot of the larger explosive events. Presence of Water = non linear increase in explosiveness…
Landslides
This tops the Aegean scenario:
“The Nuuanu volcanic landslide
off Oahu, Hawaiʻi, moved about 5,000 cubic kilometre of rocks over a distance of more than 200 km about 2 Million years ago and must have caused a Pacific-wide tsunami with up to 70 m high waves in North America and Japan. Around Hawaii, more than 68 major landslide deposits document a geologic history of repeated volcano collapses.
Kilauea’s southern flank is sliding down 8-12 cm per year.”
https://www.pre-collapse.eu/case-study-volcanoes/#Kilauea
“The Nu’uanu slide lies off the northeast coast of the island of Oahu and is one of the largest landslides on Earth. The slide is 235 km wide and 35 km long and occurred 1 to 1.5 million years ago when nearly half of the Ko’olau volcano collapsed. One of the largest blocks in the slide is called the Tuscaloosa seamount, which is 30 km long by 17 km wide and 2 km high! The remaining part of the caldera shows a steep fault escarpment where the failure occurred.”
https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1610
Yes, these have a lots of potential for destruction, but they never get the same attention as the more photogenic killer asteroids and super-volcanoes.
Yes, let|s take this:
1959 Hebgen Lake Earthquake
And a very personal story:
I later would never have met my husband and these wonderful children wouldn|t exist if he had gotten his bus in Rio de Janeiro in 1967.
It was crowded at the central bus station, there was a bus taking off to Sao Paolo every five minutes. They – him and a friend – had bought a ticket, but were unable to squeeze into their bus, also not into the next bus. Finally they made it on the third bus.
This waiting saved their lives.
When they arrived at the end of the waiting cars they saw that a landslide had taken away the new highway. The busses they wanted to catch were on the bottom of the valley.
Figure 26-28
These seismicity measurements of today did not exist at the time. There might have been earthquakes. It is an escarpment. They were just lucky to have missed the bus.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/0697/report.pdf
So, Thank you for this huge progress.
And well, the mountains and valleys go on underneath the sea.
I actually saw this scene with my own eyes. My dad took our family to the Hebgen lake area about 3 days after the quake. The 27 ft escarpments left an indelible impression on my 8 year old mind. The quake was so strong it woke me up in Laurel Montana, the windows rattled. I was scared, but my mom told me “It’s an earthquake, not a thunderstorm” so I calmed down. The waterfowl took off Lake Hebgen around 2 pm the day of the quake and that was recorded in a West Yellowstone Sheriff’s log book. They did NOT return until after the 6 strong 6+ mag aftershocks occured, I believe it was Wed when the waterfowl came back.
Animals have senses we have lost. Thx for the story.
Added a new Set of Visualisations into the playlist. Data covers all manually checked Earthquakes since 2008. I got a few errors, so one or more might be missing (i checked to source file but couldnt find the culprit)
If someone has tips to improve the visualisations, please comment 🙂 looking at you @Geolurking, you were a pro in that regard years ago already.
https://youtu.be/G-S6EgplvmM?feature=shared
A long lava flow of Etna:
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/de/etna/current-activity.html#google_vignette
Pretty, but they are not so happy there saying that around 1000 people got there to see it and blocked the streets so ambulances would not be able to pass.
Icelanders are patiently waiting.
Land still rising around Svartsengi (RÚV, 18 Feb)
Like proverbial watched pots: watched volcanoes never erupt when you expect them to.
How long is the series going to last? Maybe after another 2-3 eruptions if will find an equilibrium without any more eruptions. A second option is, that the eruptions during 2025 shift towards a lower frequency with one eruption per year (f.e. 2026) to one per five years (2026-2030).
Volcanophil:
See my post below. This Svartsengi Fissure Eruption series is going to last at least 10-20 years, if the decay in magma accumulation rate is decreasing exponential (like radioactive decay). I have a request in right now to obtain the actual data from the IMO, so a curve fit can be done to see how accurate this match is.
It’s still possible that during the 10-20 (or even 30) years, there happen two-three eruption series. Since end of 2023 we’re in the 1st eruption series. If it ends in near future, after some years we may get the 2nd eruption series.
deep dive on Santorini-Kolumbo
https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/the-seismic-swarm-in-greece-gets
Karel:
The explanation makes a lot of sense. Magmatic intrusion from Santorini pushes hot fluids along the faults in the NE direction, they get lubricated, and thousands of earthquakes occur. Everytime we had earthquakes by the thousands in Iceland, it’s always been magmatic. I do remember when Bardarbunga kicked off, the earthquake chart at the IMO went crazy, you never saw so many dots strewn all over the map. We see this for the fissure eruptions in the Svartsengi area.. a flurry of quakes. I will stick my neck out and say that the same thing is happening here.
I fundamentally disagree with the Blogpost or assumption that Santorini is driving the current unrest north east of Kolumbo. The latest studies re Kolumbo and any possible connection between those two cleary show, that the two Volcanos do not share the same Magma Domain. It is highly unlikely that Santorini is the cause of the current unrest. Petrographic studies concluded that there are clear differences in trace element compositions between Kolumbo and Santorini. What is more likely is, that some sort of Intrusion north east of Kolumbo is taking place, putting stress on the already stressed faults there.
Personally i was intrigued by the deflation signal in the GPS data at Santorini too, which likely could be explained by some small volumes of fluids filling up recent cracks due to the faulting in the region… But if Santorinis system were responsible, i think we would see a much larger signal on the UP/DOWN Component of the GPS signals. But we mostly see displacement in East/West and North/South, which likely comes from the changes in the region north east of Kolumbo.
The thing that really makes me wonder what is going on though, are the amount of M4+ to M5+ earthquakes that have taken place in this swarm… this seems more than a bit unusual for just “tectonic” activity, as some might currently state to the media. I think from our expertise when looking at Iceland, the likely reason for the high seismicity is a combination of tectonic and volcanic sources… aka, the Henn or Egg…
Fully agree (with you, not the blog post). The geodetic data does not support the idea of Santorini deflating. The blog post provides a very useful link to a report about the ground deformations: https://www.emsc-csem.org/Files/event/1765158/20250213b-santorini-seismo-volcanic-crisis-gnss.pdf
We see that prior to the current event, Santorini was inflating. Three GPS stations are moving up and away from the center of the caldera. After the onset of the current event, there has been a slight downward movement in one of the stations, but also increased horizontal movement towards NE, away from the caldera, which contradicts the idea of deflation.
Here’s what I think after watching the geodetic data: The earthquake sequence is caused by extension of the crust in the area NE of Kolumbo. Extension is in NW-SE direction and a graben aligned towards SW-NE is forming in that area. If you look at horizontal movements during graben formation, perpendicular motion outside the graben will be away from the graben (in the direction of extension), and in the parallel direction, in line with the graben, motion will be towards the graben. Santorini is placed in line with the graben, so deformation will be towards NE, which is consistent with what we see in GPS movements. This deformation will relax some of the stress that was added by the prior inflation, so we see a slight decrease in the UP-component.
We need to stop treating the UP/DOWN component as inflation/deflation and start looking also at horizontal movements. People are so obsessed with up/down, but horizontal deformation tells a lot more about what’s actually going on.
Do we have any live links to Greek GPS monitoring stations? It would be interesting to see what’s going on in other nearby islands.
Yes, I fully agree with this assessment. Pure rifting is more likely to cause such long lasting earthquake swarms than other types of faults because it is less governed by friction. As has been mentioned, there is very little evidence that the swarm had any magmatic involvement, apart from one occasion which may also have been water.
I actually have to change the assessment a bit. If you look at those three GPS trajectories, then only look at the last part that coincides with the earthquake swarm then draw arrows on a map, all three point straight to the Kolumbo caldera. This indicates deflation at Kolumbo. That would also mean that it is likely to be a magma dyke driving the swarm after all, but the source is at Kolumbo, not Santorini.
I agree with Tomas regarding this being a Kolumbo dike. This has nothing to do with Santorini, at least not directly, and it’s an understandable confusion given that most people are not aware of the second volcano to the north.
It’s also important to keep in mind that a lot of geologists may not be well-trained in spotting dike intrusions. While in Iceland and Hawaii dikes and their signals have been well known for a few decades, there is still a lot of unawareness about them or their importance in the rest of the world (particularly their ability to generate massive fracturing earthquake swarms and faulting over a large area away from the volcano). This happened before with the Taal 2020 eruption and massive swarm to the south of Taal caldera, where the geologists of PHIVOLCS and the Philippine authorities did not recognize the dike intrusion while it was ongoing, but I did write an article about why it was a large dike intrusion, which indeed a scientific article later confirmed to have been a rifting-related dike, a 0.5 km3 intrusion no less.
As a rhyolite volcano with a 10-km chain of volcanic vents running NE (probably basaltic and fed from linear dikes), Kolumbo can be seen morphologically as a bimodal volcano that controls a fissure swarm, not that different from Fentale actually. The GPS stations must be showing deflation of Kolumbo volcano as magma gets drained away from it. At this point we know very little of how large lateral dikes interact with central silicic volcanoes, it could well be a common trigger for explosive eruptions when it forces the central chamber to collapse. This has only been documented once, with the Askja 1875 eruption, but we haven’t seen many caldera rhyolite eruptions either (properly monitored I don’t think we have seen any) so could very well be a common trigger.
As for the swarm characteristics that could be consistent with a dike intrusion, those are volcano-tectonic temporal distribution of earthquakes, linear shape and progression away from Kolumbo, and presence of tremor.
The pulse of inflation from the northern part of Santorini caldera in the month leading up to the crisis is interesting. It must mean that there is some degree of connection between Santorini and Kolumbo, and the current crisis. With first magma building up in Santorini’s magma chamber, and also at the same time or later going into Kolumbo’s rift zone. I think the connection is probably deep, and that this intrusion is only or almost entirely drawing magma from Kolumbo, as the GPS would indicate.
Here’s a very good animation based on precise relocations obtained by a novel machine learning waveform analysis:
https://x.com/seismolicious/status/1889727179631518116
This clearly shows the dyke progression, starting from Kolumbo. It gets shallower at approximate GPS coordinates 36.56, 25.62, but stalls and progresses further NE. Stalls again, returns to the most shallow part, where it again moves further up, stalls again and pushes further NE. We even get trigger quakes on faults parallel with the dyke tip. Looking at fault mechanisms of the largest of those quakes, they are strike-slip, just like the largest trigger quakes in Iceland.
If this ends in an eruption, it will probably be near those coordinates
Stunning visualization. The intrusion is outside the main chain of volcanoes, but the seismicity does show a trail going back to Kolumbo, and the GPS moving towards it clearly show who is running the intrusion. I have doubts that Kolumbo will manage to erupt from an area that’s higher than the volcano itself and has no older volcanic cones, so I think this most likely will remain intrusive unless the subsidence triggers the central caldera to erupt or there’s a follow-up to this intrusion.
The dike intrusion must be massive, the swarm is 30 km long. The number of >4.6, and >M 5 is comparable to the last Fentale intrusion, maybe even slightly higher. A caldera collapse is definitely on the table and would probably be the worst-case scenario.
I doubt that Kolumbo has enough magma for that. It is a significant feature but no Bardarbunga and as you note, the gradient isn’t there so the dike would have to move against gravity. It may have started near Kolumbo but I don’t see much evidence that there was a major amount of magma involved in the rifting. I can change my mind…but not yet: I still see this on balance as tectonic rifting.
Interesting assessments. Lateral GPS aren’t as o vious from a quick glance and require a bit more interpretation. I did use lateral moments to estimate the location of the Svartsvengi sill. It took a while, but the location was pretty close.
That excellent visualisation was made with this tool https://pyrocko.org/
“Pyrocko is an open source seismology toolbox and library, written in the Python programming language. It can be utilized flexibly for a variety of geophysical tasks, like seismological data processing and analysis, modelling of InSAR, GPS data and dynamic waveforms, or for seismic source characterization.”
I imagine a few Volcanocafe people might find this useful!
It’s extremely tempting to start playing around with Pyrocko, but I suspect it will pull me in and consume a lot more time than I can afford. Let’s hope someone else takes the bite.
Perhaps the intrusion is into the lower magma chamber that is shared by Santorini and Kolumbo. Most of the earthquakes seem to be at a depth below 9 KM.
Now it has been shaking near Crotone, Calabria, several times, plus in Crete plus Peloponnes . If these are combined on a map with Campi Flegrei NW I get a straighter than straight line between all, on the continental border. Cut off the tip of the boot and you will see it. One system, one mountain chain from Tuscany, volcanic, by Rome, volcanic, by Naples, volcanic, to the Aegean Sea. Two island arcs, The Lipari Islands west of Crotone, the Cyclades and Dodecanes north of Chania.
This seems more than obvious to me, but the question whether they will have a larger earthquake with a possible submarine landslide or a submarine volcanic eruption with a flank collapse is by no means solved with such musings.
Anyway, seeing this potential system as a potential unit I will certainly watch if the shaking dies down when Etna stops erupting. That would be interesting. With Earth we might have to think bigger and be daring sometimes, keeping in mind that it might be wrong.
That… doesn’t make a great deal of sense. On what grounds are you inferring a connection between seismicity in such diverse places, and an eruption in Sicily? Is that what you’re saying, or am I misunderstanding?
For me. Mike, it makes sense. You rotate your map by 45 degress counter-clockwise -and btw we all gave to get rid in our heads fromthat stupid Mercator-map we grew up with which doesn’t even depict the right size of continents – then you see a mountain chain being built up, a growing, albeit small ocean in front, the Thyrrh. Sea, a basin behind, the Adria
And a second mountain chain, the Dinaric Alps.
You can see that or not.
I can see it and also see that the African Plate might have changed direction at some point, clockwise.
I am not saying it is one system, but it might be, a system with mountain-building.
If this is right humans if still extant will see it in retrospect in 10-50 million years from now.
So what we see now in the past we have to extrapolate, in different locations of course.
Kilauea looking very bright in the north vent, last few episodes have begun 1-2 days after this, so E10 must be close now.
The important indicator is the beginning of a Strombolian spattering. Last two episodes:
Episode 8: “Sporadic fountaining … began 7:15 pm HST on February 2.” “Episode 8 of the Halema’uma’u eruption began at 9:52 pm HST.”
Episode 9: “Occasional spatter … has been visible since this morning, February 10.” “Episode 9 of the Halema’uma’u eruption began at 10:16 am HST today, February 11”
Spattering may begin 24 hours before the episode begins. The steam cloud in the crater is constantly illuminated now. So it looks as if magma slowly rises and will begin with spattering soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E
The graphs of Kilauea Iki and SDH show that we can expect the next episode to begin at a lower deflation level than the previous one(s):
?fileTS=1739976063
?fileTS=1739978729
Usually that bright glow is spattering, just that none of the webcams have a good view of the inside of the crater. The spatter cone that forms from this early activity was never visible ladt time either but is in several pictures by HVO and the public. It IS visible at Keanakako’i byt HVO doesnt have a zoomed webcam from there.
Before the eruption began, it looked as if a magma/lava lake was slowly rising in the vent. Maybe we’ve reached a phase in the eruption, when episodes are preceded by short-term lava lake activity in the conduit.
The main episode then begins with an overflow of the lava lake and spattering, followed by an increasing lava fountain.
Not sure about this pause but before E9 there was a spatter cone in the north vent, not an open lava lake although it was still an open vent. Ive never seen HVO post a picture or talk about a convecting lava lake or pond in the vents, but Mauna Ulu and Pu’u O’o had them after a while between fountaining and long after so it is presumably a common trend in the evolution of this vent
If this really does last for years I expect at some point for fountaining to stop, replaced with a lava lake overflowing, and eventually continuous effusion. Something like at Fagradalsfjall in 2021, or Mauna Ulu. Probably at some point the vent is too wide and starts convecting instead. But how long that actually takes might be variable. And much of the data on small lava shields is from the flank vents of Pu’u O’o, which were not primary vents, Mauna Ulu did form a shield as a primary vent and did resume fountaining in 1974. Some of the Icelandic shields have fountain fallout tephra and long a’a flows, as does the Observatory shield surrounding U’ekahuna, lava shields are not always continuous and passive.
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1BqQ62DW7E/
Some stuff on the lava at Etna, including a map.
The lava flowed from a vent on the side of the Bocca Nuova but apparently os a side vent of the SEC, which started up not long after. Theres no eruptions in the other craters at all or at least I havent seen anything about it.
Its been a few years since the SEC haf a major paroxysm. It is the most powerful of the vents now. In 2021 it had over 20 cases of lava fountains far exceeding the 1500 mark that was the world record before, and one time over 5000 meters, which might be the highest fountain of any description in the global written record, madness. I feel like at some point in the nearish future Etna is going to either have a caldera collapse, or the crystal rich magma will collect, settle out, and lead to eruptions of much more fluid lava. Possibly both.
Its indeed amazingly fluid at the vent despite its high crystal content, its very mobile and can flow very fast despite its viscous looking nature, I seen some videos up at the effusive bocca there and it was moving nearly as fast as some past Kilauean tube openings up at pulama pali. If Etna turns crystal poor ( mostly glass fluid ) woud it then become nearly as fluid as Puu Oo?
I think there’s a vagueness when an attempt is made to define the height of a lava fountain. The same feature at high noon compared to pitch blackness will render two different heights.
If the ejecta comes down five miles away as pumice, is it really a lava fountain, or a paroxysmal strombolian eruption? is a once-a-minute spatter burp the same as a 600-meter Kilauea Iki/Mauna Ulu fountain?
So many questions…:-)
Campi Flegrei are – together with Santorini and Etna – back in the news. Did the 1538 put more ash on Naples than any Vesuvius eruption? The eruption was an intense phreatomagmatic (Sub-)Plinian eruption that covered Naples with 2-4cm ash. Vesuvius on the east side of Naples is probably usually in the (western) wind shadow of Naples, so ash prefers to go east from Vesuvius.
Nature has a new Article on Campi Flegrei, published on 11 February: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56723-y
Interesting is the graph with cumulative earthquakes that increased nearly vertically since 2023. I assume that Campi Flegrei have a broad diversity of eruption style, although explosive eruptions dominate. Monte Nuovo 1538 (VEI3) was a Surtseyan eruption with viscous magma. There can happen Maar eruptions or just phreatic explosions (Solfatara 1198, VEI1). Added to this there are lava domes in Solfatara that show the capability to this eruption type.
In the study they examined “relationships between the characteristics of the earthquakes, the seismogenic processes, the evolution of the deformation field, and the geochemical variations (CO2 flux) of the Campi Flegrei caldera.”
The “analysis highlights a greater concentration of burst-like swarms within the Solfatara-Pisciarelli hydrothermal area”. They compare the burst-like earthquake swarms to similar cases in Mammoth Mountain (hydrothermal active area) and White Island. These earthquakes indicate an ” increase in hydrothermal system fluid pressure.” They see a possible risk for phreatic activity.
This caught my curiosity: “Vesuvius on the east side of Naples is probably usually in the (western) wind shadow of Naples, so ash prefers to go east from Vesuvius.”
Indeed, there was probably some wind from the west as Pliny the Elder had no problem travelling from Misenum in the west of the bay to Stabiae in the east, and there are also many excavated ville further south-east between Amalfi and Positano. One of those we visited is sitting very low under ground having been covered by 11 m of ash in 79 AD.
And when I try to find s.th. similar in Naples I get no results which can have two reasons: 1. Naples was saved, 2. There is too much construction in Naples over two millenia, so nothing can be found.
But the wind Pliny the younger who was in Misenum on the western side of the bay might be a sign that Naples was saved.
I would refrain from generalizing this though as winds, even if they mostly come from the west, can also come from other directions. A south-eastern wind (Scirocco) bringing Sahara sand is no rarity.
Besides I do not believe that there is an effect of Vesuvius in the sense of a wind shadow as Vesuvius is more inland than Naples and only 1281 m high (very unimpressive edifice btw), whereas Naples is a lot more influenced by the sea and its winds.
Naples is 15 km as the crow flies from each Pozzuoli and Vesuvius National Park, so might be in an ideal position by chance which is accidental because the location was certainly chosen because the harbour is more protected from western and northern winds. 15 km my estimate, ~ 21-22 km by street.
For heaven’s sake, can one of these stupid volcanoes just erupt already?! It’s been almost 3 months of constant swarming with nothing to show for it on the surface. I want an eruption already.
Bored by Etna?
https://www.independent.co.uk/tv/news/mount-etna-smoke-rings-eruption-b2524640.html
The Iceland Meteorological Office mentions that the uplift of the land in the Svartsengi area has slowed down. Actually there is a long term trend of a gradual decrease in flow rate to the magma chambers which might signal how long this fissure eruption series might really last. If the rate becomes horizontal (for 0 cubic meters per second) then we’re done. Please notice the trend line in https://ibb.co/nsXTT400 when the height changes are accumulative.
I meant to say magmatic volume rates are adjusted for a gradual accumulating rate (not GPS heights)
There has been a cluster of quakes north of Grindavik is the last few hours, so pressure could now be increasing.
NASA published a pretty picture of Etna with ash covered snow and the lava flow in infrared glow:
The accompanying short article can be found here:
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153962/river-of-fire-on-mount-etna
Beautiful Also this is very nice (at night):
https://ongeo-intelligence.com/blog/etna-s-eruption-from-above-what-do-the-latest-satellite-images-reveal
Mr. Lekkas, based on the proposals of the Seismic Risk Assessment Committee and Seismic Risk Reduction Committee and the Hellenic Volcanic Arc Monitoring Committee, he presented the possible scenarios for the development of the situation, explaining the time scale and the required operational planning for each case. Specifically:
More likely scenario: The gradual de-escalation of the phenomenon.
Second scenario: Earthquake of magnitude 6 or slightly larger. In this case there is a 4% chance of the collapse of 200-300 buildings in the caldera. Operational groups are ready to face this risk, and measures are being taken to avoid approaching dangerous areas and limiting overcrowding.
Volcanic activity: No volcanic eruption expected in the near future. “Columbos” is not expected to erupt for the next 10 thousand years and the discussions about a new volcano that may appear are about something that can happen in 200 thousand years. Consequently, these scenarios have no place at operational planning level.
Geological changes: Movements of the ground were recorded, with the northern part of the island shifting by 8 cm and the south by 4 cm. These changes evolve in geological time and do not affect operational management.
https://hub.uoa.gr/anakoinosi-tetarti-19-2-2025-seismikotita-eos-kai-18-fevrouariou-2025-apostoli-sti-santorini-diepistimoniki-epitropi-diacheirisis-kindynon-kai-kriseon-e-k-p-a/
Personally i find statements and hazard assessments like this highly unprofessional… just my two cents… in the last 400’000 Years there have been over 100 explosive eruptions, and probably a sizable number of non explosive ones… so to state that Kolumbo won’t erupt in the next 10’000 years appear a bit… let’s say it… like selling puts on the SPX, it might work a few years, then explode in your face…
Thanks, but English helps, piece in English version Greek news-outlet:
Efthymios Lekkas:
“He explained that in the event of such a strong earthquake, there is a 4% chance that 200 to 300 buildings in the caldera of Santorini will collapse.
Regarding the volcanic activity, Lekkas made clear that the Columbo is not going to erupt in the next 10,000 years, while the possibility of a new volcano being created exists, but in 200,000 years from now.”
https://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2025/02/19/santorini-top-seismologist-earthquake-columbo-caldera/
This sounds not only professional, but sane. He first assesses the Santorini situation, then Columbo, then a new volcano. This was not clear from your post.
Efthymios L. Lekkas, University of Athens, google scholar:
https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ErSS-hAAAAAJ&hl=en
I advise not to tear experienced people down here by calling them “highly unprofessional”, it can damage this site.
The statement which i think is irresponsible is this: “Regarding the volcanic activity, Lekkas made clear that the Columbo is not going to erupt in the next 10,000 years, while the possibility of a new volcano being created exists, but in 200,000 years from now.””
Compare it with the communication that Icelands Metoffice makes.
I’d argue that current data doesn’t scientifically support a statement like the above. It would be more appropriate to state, that there is a (small) risk of eruption, but assign it a low probability and add, that it likely would be on the smaller scale. Then add a statement that you are assessing new data and would increase monitoring to get a better picture of the ongoing event.
http://publications.iodp.org/preliminary_report/398/398PR.PDF
International Ocean Discovery Program
Expedition 398 Preliminary Report
Hellenic Arc Volcanic Field
11 December 2022–10 February 2023
“Prior to Expedition 398 we had a record of Santorini volcanism going back to 650 ka, but it was only detailed since 360 ka (Druitt et al., 1999). Apart from the 1650 CE eruption, the past volcanism of Kolumbo Volcano was poorly documented and that of Christiana Volcano was largely unknown.”
Those 10.000 years estimate might include the time until the volcano would appear above the sea-level, I guess. More danger would be posed by a flank collapse concerning tsunami.
He sees s.th. that you might not see. He can see that there are four different basins, the Amorgos Basin in the east, The Christiana Basin in the west and between them in the north the a) Anhydros Basin with the Kolumbo Volcanic Chain, b) in the south the Santorini-Anafi Basin. c) Between them an elevation with two horsts and the NNW – NW/SE running Anhydros Fault and east of it the Amorgos Fault, in the South, bordering the Santorini-Anafi-Basin the Santorini-Anafi-Fault and on the other side the Astypalaea Fault.
He can see that all of the quakes took place in b and c plus the Amorgos Basin.
The scenarios don’t include a possible eruption at Nea Kameni. Can the present unrest at Kolumbo preced an eruption in the central Santorini Caldera like 1939-1950?
At the moment there is no indication for unrest there. It will eventually erupt again. But it seems that it is not at the point where one such remote swarm pushes it over the edge. The locals will be very happy about that.
Of course. For me this seems to be the next row of Alpine mountains, so there will be eruptions every now and then for the next 10-20 million years from now. At least.
If I compare this to people living close to volcanoes from Mexico down the coast, passing densely populated Guatemala, going down to Ecuador and then Chile, and also to folks living close to the Cascades which really had a big problem in the past 50 years, or to the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua-Neuguinea and Japan I get to the conclusion that a good deal of European hysteria is being mingled in this.
And btw, I have a lot more pity with people who live close to dangerous volcanoes and tectonic zones like Managua than with comfy easily scared tourists who want to have s.th. like an insurance that there will be no volcanic eruption.
I have read your last piece about Monte Nuovo again (excellent) and am comparing the area with the subduction zone east plus maars and springs to Clear Lake VF with maars, springs and geothermal potential and the subduction zone btw a triple junction in the west. Not to bad, many similarities.
Besides, the specialist when mentioning Santorini is only talking about the damage caused by an earthquake of magnitude 6, not at all about an eruption which they obviously do not expect. The Nea Kameni eruptions in 1707–1712, 1866–1870, 1925–1928, and 1939–1941 and 1950 were all small, so they concentrate from the beginning on chances of a larger earthquake that would do more damage there.
But our media write of course, that there is a high chance of a volcanic eruption which in its own right irresponsable as this island depends on tourism. Instead of translating what Greek geologists have to say they fall into the usual scare-mongering which they make money with on the cost of Greek islands.
Basically, Prof. Lekkas expressed that they are not worried about an eruption.
This being said it is worth to be noted that most of the earthquakes are between Santorini and Amorgos and some others in the north of the Aegean Sea, Turkey and close to Pelopones, some even south around Crete.
Next eruption in Kilaueas caldera https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E&pp=ygUOa2lsYXVlYSB3ZWJjYW0%3D
Never seen it this clear in the thermal view. Theres a few videos already of it getting to the height of the rim, so 180 meters or so. So obviously HVO will say about half that in their update… 🙂
From New Year 23/24, Volcanodiscovery Erta Ale, I like it:
Todays word = Rock Vapour
Vaporized Rock from an impact event is something really nasty indeed a luminous shining incandescent mineral gas or even plasma at up to many 10 000 s of degrees c depending on impact speed and mass of the impactor. During really large impact events it can cover an entire planet, there is both the impact vapour thats generated during the impact and there is also hot ejecta and condensed spherules, when that reenters the atmosphere it will generate even further radiation. The energy from an impact larger than Chicxulub is simply mega mega collossal. I been reading that impactors that gets near 30 kilometers wide are enough atmospheric heating to boil the uppermost meters of the global ocean, but you needs an impactor minimum 400 kilometers wide ( at 25 km a second ) to completely boil away Earths oceans the really big ones leaves behind a ”rock vapour photosphere atmosphere” for years after the impact that then slowly cools and condenses into ”lava rain”
Back to asteroids? Nothing can top the moon, product (assumed) of a collision.
I liked your piece about Etna as it was a personal experience and am looking forward to Hawaii for the same reason.
I am still waiting for Carl to retire and take you up to Kilimanjaro.
Hawaii will be two parts
Looks like episode 10 at Kilauea is already over.
Kilauea already stopped, only 13 hours long and with much less deflation than the last few episodes. The south vent also didnt really erupt, only some spattering but never overflowed. But the north vent was extremely intense too, it wasnt just a smaller episode but ended much faster.
Likely to be another episode in a couple days,
I had the feeling that the magma was more degassed during this episode. It just grew slowly in the conduit towards the eruption. Only little spattering. Maybe the vent is slowly building up towards a lava lake activity that resembles Overlook Crater 2008-2018.
2009 “During periods of summit inflation, lavawould rise and cover the floor of the Overlook crater, creating a short-lived lava pond. Subsequent deflation would cause the pond to drain, leaving small puffing vents on the floor of the Overlook crater. This cycle of rising and falling lava level occurred numerous times during 2009, producing many brief, small lava ponds.” https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/chronology-kilaueas-summit-eruption-2008-2018
A up and down of a lava lake, that’s visible for some time (during inflation) and gone for some time (during deflation), could be a credible scenario here again. Pu’u O’o also began with spectacular episodic eruptions that 1986 shifted to “five-and-a-half years of nearly continuous effusion of pāhoehoe lava flows from the new vent. A lava pond formed above the vent, and frequent overflows built a broad, low shield, later named Kupaianaha, to a height of 56 m (180 ft) in less than a year.” https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/puuoo-eruption-lasted-35-years
I didnt get that impression at all, actually. The eruption was probably the tallest fountain yet, and the lava flows covering most of the crater floor in 13 hours is probably the fastest that has happened too. There was some a’a but that can be from high eruption rate not cooled or degassed magma.
The fountaining also got to its max height very fast, from first spattering to 200 meter fountain was only about 40 minutes.
The deflation stoped at a relatively high leve. Maybe next episode happens soon. HVO wrote in Volcano Watch that the eruption not really stops between the episodes:
‘between eruptive episodes, tremor has remained present.” and “SO2 emission rates have remained moderately elevated, in the range of 1,000 t/d.” They conclude that “magma is just beneath the surface, continuing to gurgle, glow, and degas. ” https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-what-happens-beneath-surface-doesnt-always-stay-beneath
I wonder why HVO still talks about “Halema’uma’u” in the update. They say that lava flows of Episode 10 have covered 75% of Halema’uma’u, but the area of the present lava field is much bigger than the Halema’uma’u before 2018 was. The area now includes both Halema’uma’u, the down-dropped block and surrounding areas of the Kaluapele Caldera.
Craters evolve all the time. It makes sense to me to keep the name
It keeps the name for cultural reasons, too. It translates to house of the ‘A’mau fern (Sadleria cyatheoides). None of it actually really has anything to do with it being a crater, it was a lava lake in the 19th century up to 1894 when it actually became a crater for the first time.
Yes, and in the end it’s the right and authority of the local communities to decide about labels for geographic structures.
New Videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RL69YORpQI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRkPg_M5C9U
Seismic record of manually checked Earthquakes near the Santorini Amorgos Islands from January 15th to Feb 20 2025. Colors by Depth and Colors by Time
the second video had an error, deleted and reuploaded. new link, watch at high quality settings. still need to figure out the map thing… couldn’t find data that includes microseismicity…
Latest Visualisations for the Seismic Swarm in Greece near Santorini-Kolumbo. Data from the Hellenic Seismic Network (HL) operated by the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA-IG).