A guest post by Tallis
The very worst case scenarios are rarely considered for disasters and for usually a good reason. They are either so unlikely or so boring that there is no point in worrying or thinking about it. The worst case impact event is one that would completely destroy the Earth and make another asteroid belt or planet entirely. The worst case tornado would be one that would produce Jarrell level damage while moving at 70 plus mph through the downtown area of a large city (Not likely at all!). Flood basalts and gamma ray bursts are similar events. However volcanic winter through explosive eruption are not like that, since we don’t even know the climate effects of upper end VEI 7 eruptions let alone VEI 8s. We can’t just sit here and say “We don’t know so forget about it.” so I have done some brainstorming and I have conceptualized a potential worst case scenario for Explosive Volcanic winter.
First let’s address the best case scenario; lately some scientists have come forward saying that VEI 8 eruptions produce limited climate effects, producing a drop in temperatures of less then 1 C. It would seem that there is cold war when it comes to the effects of these eruptions between skeptics and supporters of apocalyptic volcanic winter. Personally I think a VEI 8 eruption would likely produce a temperature drop of 5-8 C. Pretty nasty but not crazy, the mere fact that an argument could be made for a drop of 10+ C or 1> C shows how little we know.
The central battle of this cold war is the Toba eruption, various arguments have been put forth on both sides but the physical evidence leans towards the skeptics. The two biggest arguments put forward by the skeptics is that as the mass of SO2 is released increases, the aerosols will become larger and will be flushed out quicker and higher concentrations of aerosols cannot be sustained because the aerosol microphysics will lead to higher removal rates. Supporters have argued with skeptics concerning how much these factors would limit volcanic winter but there is not a lot of arguments on other ways that the Toba eruption’s climate effects could be neutered.
Some have argued that the sulfur load from Samalas eruption is the point where the aerosols become too large and are flushed out quicker. For reference, this eruption released around 120-240 megatons of SO2, if this mass would be the limit of sustainable volcanic winter, then it would be safe to say that we wouldn’t really have to worry about larger eruptions. Thankfully we have a prehistoric event that disproves this: 7,600 years ago Mt Mazama produced an eruption similar in size to the Samalas eruption also with similar SO2 amounts for the northern hemisphere. An analysis of ice cores following this eruption has shown that the SO2 was flushed out over a period of 6 years! So I am sure that means the Samalas eruption didn’t exceed the perfect mass threshold. Whatever this ”Magic Mass” is, I don’t think any historic eruption has surpassed it, for all we know it could be a pretty small number or it could be the most massive numeral.
The first limit to explosive volcanic winter is time, the aerosols usually have a lifetime of 2-3 years at the most. The worst effects will usually be gone after the second year and there is no reason to assume the rules would change with larger eruptions. Finding concrete physical data concerning an event so brief will be extremely difficult, the longer term effects are likely mild compared to other cooling events so that may not be reliable either. The Toba eruption took place during the Ice Age and I believe the Ice Age neutered the eruption.
There are two fundamental ingredients for sulfuric aerosols, SO2 and water. If there isn’t enough of one then it doesn’t matter how much of the other you have, you are not going to see much. I think the SO2 released by the Toba eruption didn’t have a lot of water to work with because of the Ice Age. This may sound like stupid argument at a glance considering the most abundant gas released by volcanic eruptions is water vapor so surely this shouldn’t be an issue. Stratospheric volcanic water vapor injections have been studied and shockingly they found that while there was an increase, it only lasted a few days, not enough time to form all of the aerosols. Other studies of the stratospheric injection of other volcanic gases, have argued that not all of them can make it to the stratosphere. In fact only limited amounts of some volcanic gases take a lasting residence in the stratosphere. Effusive eruptions likely don’t have this issue due to the fact that the plume dynamics are completely different.
During an Ice Age, natural water vapor would not be enough to react with all of the SO2, I do believe that some of volcanic H2O could make a longer residence within the stratosphere but ultimately not enough. This could actually explain why a lot of large eruptions in the past 2 million years don’t seem to produce extreme climate effects. The evidence for the basic idea of limited water vapor injections are supported with real results. So I am pretty confident this is the likely cause for the neutered climate response of Toba.
With this idea, the dynamics of large amounts of sulfuric aerosols may be even more mysterious and hard to understand. We don’t know these dynamics and until something grants us the understanding and knowledge, neither the supporters or the skeptics can declare victory. The magnetism of an incredible disaster or the fear of it can cloud someone’s mind, after all no matter how unbiased one claims they are, they’ll always be inclined to one side. I am sure you can guess which side I am inclined for.
Can we even concretely discern the worst case scenario without this crucial knowledge? No. Can we get a picture? Yes. I believe there is the perfect level of SO2 mass that balances aerosol lifetime and intensity, I don’t know what the exact value of the “Perfect mass” would be but I am sure it exists. The eruption’s size would be an important factor for the worst case scenario but it is not the most important part. What is the other part? Younger Dryas shows the answer.
The cause for Younger Dryas has been debated ranging from an impact event to a supernova but the most accepted cause is a melt water pulse shutting down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The AMOC as we’ll call it in this article, is responsible for the transport of warm water into the northern Atlantic. This is what keeps the climate of Western Europe and Eastern America warm. It is part of the Global thermohaline circulation.
There is a hypothesis that the eruption of Laacher See coinciding with the melt water pulse that triggered this event. (Note:The Laacher see volcano is in Germany and is part of a still kicking system and if you want some more information read this article https://www.volcanocafe.org/unrest-at-laacher-see-is-it-us-or-the-volcano/) This hypothesis hasn’t been confirmed, but there has been no significant evidence against it. Younger Dryas did take place very shortly after this eruption and sea ice-ocean circulation positive feedback could sustain the cooling from the eruption. The dynamics of such a process are not settled and this is what keeps this idea getting more support.
In order for this hypothesis to work, we need to find out how the melt water pulse would intensify and sustain the cooling from the aerosols. As previously mentioned the pulse would slow down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and we already have current data on what that would look like because the AMOC is weakening quickly now. Whether one believes in apocalyptic anthropogenic climate change (I am pretty skeptical myself) doesn’t change the fact that the AMOC is weakening pretty quickly now and in fact, this is the weakest it’s been in 1600 years. (The data goes to 450; it was stable from that time to the 19h century.) I believe this could be what has been driving the recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons and some of the recent powerful European windstorms as well. We can see clearly the results of this change in the ocean, as a growing blob of cold water exists in the northern Atlantic. This slowdown would lead to a decrease in salinity as well as temperature.
The first thing that would enhance the volcanic winter is the fact that freshwater freezes quicker than saltwater, with a sudden influx of cold freshwater with the reduced transport of warm saltwater. A significant amount of sea ice could develop, how much though, would depend on the scale of the cooling. Due to the nature of volcanic winter, the most intense cooling would take place during the summer, and as such for a year or 2, sea ice melt would be weak and could actually build. Once the aerosols are removed, this sea ice would melt and would disrupt the circulation even more so.
If enough sea ice develops, then the ice could increase the Earth albedo, and give the volcanic winter a decent boost as well. With the weakening of the AMOC, there would be an increase in baroclinicity, which would lead to more powerful extra-tropical cyclones. Which means there would be more significant snowfall which could also give the winter a boost.
It has been said that large volcanic eruptions are perfectly capable of decreasing heat flow to the arctic all on their own after all the AMOC isn’t the only circulation on this Planet! The AMOC is connected to other major currents across the world, including the Kurishio and East Australian currents, they all make up the global thermohaline circulation so if you mess with one then you mess with it all. So the volcanic eruption and meltwater pulse would mess with the other circulations as well, likely to a lesser extent.
Just simply with the nature of large scale volcanic winter already messing this circulation, we have some issues, with a meltwater pulse, that makes it even more nasty! However, even though the current disruption to the AMOC is related to the warming of the Planet, global cooling is perfectly capable of disrupting the circulation as well. In fact I just explained how that would work earlier! So with the sudden disruptions to climate through the aerosols the weakening of the circulation would actually begin to intensify and get worse.
This wouldn’t be a quick event, with the cooling lasting for decades and the circulation on life support, smaller volcanic eruptions would make things worse and could sustain the trend for a longer time. This wouldn’t last forever though as other variables to the climate exist and if we are to assume that the water vapor in the stratosphere has a big role on the scale of volcanic winter then it would be safe to assume that after a while there wouldn’t be enough to sustain any more large scale volcanic winter but the question is…was the Laacher see eruption big enough to affect the circulation like this? At a glance, it may seem a little outlandish. The eruption was only the size of the 1912 Novarupta eruption and the SO2 load was similar to the Tambora eruption, this eruption produced around 120 megatons of SO2.
But let’s investigate this proposition a little further, was there any eruption like this historic times? Any eruption with real and well studied effects? Yes! In fact, it has around the same SO2 load and took place firmly in the same hemisphere. Her name was Laki.
Starting June 8 1783, this massive fissure would release 14.7 cubic km3 of liquid magma with 0.8 km DRE of tephra as well over 9 months but mostly within the first 6 months covering the Europe haze laced with volcanic gases that killed tens of thousands and produced one of the most severe volcanic winter known in history. While it is unknown, it is possible that the volcanic winter killed or helped kill millions worldwide. This eruption also produced around 120-150 megatons of SO2, however the plume dynamics of this eruption ensured that not all of that gas would make a lasting residence in the stratosphere. Looking at this table we can see the total drop in solar irradiance from this eruption is around 15.5 W m-2. It is important to note that all of that only goes for the northern hemisphere and once you factor that in Laki can stand with top 3 eruptions on this list.
The eruption of Laki caused a drop of temperatures of around 1.3 C for the northern hemisphere, a very bad volcanic winter to say the least. I think this gives us a picture on the potential climate impacts of the Laacher see eruption. I am sure the climate impacts would be far more significant then the Laki eruption due to the fact that most of the SO2 would make it to the stratosphere and be converted to longer lasting aerosols. An abrupt drop of 1.3+ C should be enough to produce some significant sea ice and snow. Whether the Laacher see eruption caused Younger Dryas or not, an eruption could enhance the effects of a meltwater pulse and slowdown of thermohaline circulation and vice versa. (Once the eruption is large enough!)
The worst case scenario, would be a large eruption with this hypothetical perfect SO2 mass taking place with a meltwater pulse with a neutral or negative ENSO. I am not qualified to give any specific numbers but I am sure this would drop global temperatures by at least 9 C Once again, I can’t actually prove my hypothesis but someone else can! If there are any climatologists and volcanologists reading this, please give the idea a whirl!
It wouldn’t be one of my articles if I don’t somehow try to connect this to the present! So are the conditions currently suitable for a Younger Dryas scenario? That’s a resounding NO but I do believe current conditions are suitable for good volcanic winter. We already have the issues with the AMOC but are there any other supportive variables? Currently in the southern hemisphere we have significant icebergs breaking off and the West Antarctic ice shelf is unstable, if we can get more ice to break off we might be able to see some disruptions to the circulations in the south.
Another issue is that the Beaufort Gyre, an Arctic sea current, has been accumulating fresh water for years and it will ultimately release this water back into the Atlantic. This isn’t anything compared to the Freshwater released during Younger Dryas but it is still significant. This wouldn’t be enough to take the volcanic winter to Super Saiyan but it could be enough for Kaio-ken. We have seen the stratospheric water vapor increase over the past years as well. This has been a problem for the Ozone layer, as water vapor helps in the destruction of the ozone. Now I couldn’t find the exact number but we can find out with the information we have. Currently there are 4-10 ppmv of water vapor in the stratosphere, now the stratosphere contains around 20% of the atmosphere’s mass and the total amount of particles in the atmosphere is 1.09×1044 so let’s divide that by 20%, Um I mean 5! Which leads to 2.18×1043 let’s kill 6 zeros and multiply value by 4 which gives us 8.72×1037 . The molar mass for H2O is 18.01528(33) g/mol so let’s divide again by 6.02214076×1023 which gives us 61,772,053,298,867 lets multiply that 18 and divide that by a million, which gives us 1,111,896,959 tonnes. On the lower end, on the other end we get 2,779,742,398 tonnes.
With this we find that even if the Toba eruption took place now, there still wouldn’t be enough water vapor for all of that SO2 and this is after the current climate trends supporting excess H20 within the stratosphere! Still it’s enough to support a large eruption to say the least, so if we get a nice billion ton SO2 emitting eruption, we have enough water to turn all that to aerosols. Not accounting for potential water vapor from the eruption. Ultimately, the aerosol microphysics will decide the strength of the volcanic winter in the absence of external variables and as smart as I am, that is something I couldn’t possibly figure. The dynamics of the aerosols from larger eruptions need some more research and with an open mind, this can’t be approached with the wrong deposition. I do believe the current conditions are suitable for a large-scale volcanic winter but before I conclude, I must address the elephant in the room.
The Pinatubo eruption took place recently and produced a volcanic winter, however it didn’t seem enhanced in any way despite taking place during a pretty favorable period according to my hypothesis. I know it was a pretty small eruption in terms of SO2 load compared to historic events and it doesn’t even show up in the top 25 eruptions in the past 2500 years. So that could be the answer but I believe since there was an El Nino that took place shortly before and continued a few years after the eruption, the cooling wasn’t as intense. Depending on how much El ninos reduce the cooling from volcanoes, the mere fact that there was a substantial cooling event could mean the Pinatubo eruption was enhanced.
Whatever, the reality is, I am sure we can figure it out. This cold war between skeptics and supporters must come to an end and we must find the facts concerning volcanic winter. I could be dead wrong in everything I have put forth here, but on the journey to truth we have to expect some falls. We might be able to test this idea out in real life so let’s keep an eye on the actual volcanoes too!
The Die has been cast, the trumpet has been blown
The warm light is dead, Blue skies gone,
Night is now eternal and it will never falter
The Sun has fallen and the heavens quiver,
Stars have fled, and the moon weeps
God’s wrath has come and hell awaits
The babes cry no more, they are hushed
The children look to their parents, confused
The men and women cannot answer they cannot speak.
Every beast knows what is coming, The truth is bleak
Death smiles. It will feast this hour
The angels frown. They will protect no more
Gone is the sustaining rain, the skies bring only fear and pain
Gone is the nurturing earth, the ground brings only famine
There is no love, there is no happiness, there will be no reprieve
There will only be hate, despair and tears on this eternal eve
Just got this comment on the previous post as Albert uploaded the new one, so copying and editing it here.
“There appears to be a small feed into the hot tub directly from the spatter cone. There is a marked gradient to the other side. Did Gollum leave the tap on? And which way will it overflow? To the east or west?
Also breakout from the back-lava nearest the mbl camera.”
I’m wondering if this may precipitate a big change in the lava direction. Only time will tell.
Now that it’s light, I see that the hot tub level has dropped. Is there a slow leak? Or is it now somehow higher, and lava is flowing away at the surface? 🤔
Another possibility is that perspective is playing tricksy tricks on me and the hot tub is draining to the east. Has Gollum damaged the hot tub?
So the hot tub got a change of lava today. And it might be shrinking as the cone grows and invades the area.
This is a pinch point, where the cone has narrowed the space between itself to the valley side. The hot tub sits on this narrow area, and may yet be significant in how this eruption proceeds, controlling where, and in which direction, the lava flows.
I can now ‘like’ comments, so prepare for a flurry.
1. Swedish sized coffee mug in hand.
2. Day off from working.
3. Eruption to watch.
4. Article to read about big boomy stuff.
5. Sun is shining.
Life is for some reason really good today.
Boss is in! Volcanoes, look busy!
I do wonder what size ‘Swedish size’ is. For some reason I am thinking ‘flat pack’.
Think bucket.. 😉
That is glorious
I am 1/16 Swedish is that enough to qualify for the Swedish size cup 🙂
And there was obviously a bucket sized refill… 🙂
A word you must know when you come to Sweden is “påtår”.
It is the second cup of brewed coffee that is freely served at cafés as a refill, it is always included in the price.
You only get påtår on standard brewed coffee, and not on vanilla frappuccino macchiato frappélattes… (Seriously, who orders these things when there is the perfection that is black strong coffee at hand?)
Espresso is though an okay choice, but why in the name of all things unholy are they not served in Swedish sized cups?
One very good thing with Sweden “påtår” 🙂 When was working in Spain they call me “Big Coffee” They give me a smaller cup. with the result i take two.
I’m running on empty, aveaging about 4 hours sleep since the live streams started broadcasting. Early retired from paid work, thank the gods and Dear Husband’s ample pensions for that huge mercy.
I need to get up and make tea. It might be sunny outside…
Havent have time look for some time. Is “senior” on the run away from “junior” ? look like disance between them bigger now. Or maybe they change camera little.. Coffe time here also and Pink floyd and iceland not so bad..
That’s a really good question. I’m constantly checking in, and picking up smaller changes and events, but I may be missing the longer term trends.
What PF album are you listening to? What is your favourite, if not that album? And that thought leads me on to a more general thought.
Has VC ever done a ‘music to watch volcanoes by’ post?
“live at Pompeii”?!
Triumvirat’s “Pompeii”? 🙂
Senior maybe want to run to the hotspot 🙂 Now i listen to Gilmour live at Royal Albert Hall . In nthe morning i haved Nordic music by Adrian von Ziegler fits very good to a volcano erouption on iceland. Well i listen to most Pink Floyd albums from when Syd Barret with little crazy things going on 🙂 to later . Depends on the mood i supppose.
“Has VC ever done a ‘music to watch volcanoes by’ post?”
No, but an interesting idea! My choices might be a bit too heavy for most viewers.
Oooh, do tell how heavy.
Metallica? Opeth? Pain of Salvation? Porcupine Tree? Sòlstafir? Malefice?
Well, I’m in a doom metal band in which I’ve down-tuned my entire bass to be B-E-A-D much like a 5 string with the G missing. When that low B hits the crowd it approaches the ‘brown note’.
For my music of choice for watching volcanoes, my first choice would be Tool, especially during the day. Into the night needs something heavier; working my way through Iron Maiden, Black Sabbath, Kyuss, Fu Manchu, Stoned Jesus and into some Space Slug. Obviously this changes drastically with mood. Sometimes firing up the PC and playing Doom is the only way to end the day!
Classical is the best music to track volcanoes to! Track Taal while listening to Khachaturian is the best!
I vaguely know the technical music stuff, but I’d probably need my son’s explanations on the music theory. I love it when the music goes right through me in the gut.
My own musical zenith was recorder at school, with 5 years at the top of the waiting list for any woodwind tuition, when that was a free thing. Not one player in my school year ever dropped out.
Never heard of Stone Jesus or Space Slug. I range through the top quality music of most genres, barring drum&base, rap and country. Prog, progressive rock and melodic heavy metal are my favourites; within that, at the moment the weapons of choice are Marillion (both incarnations), Steven Wilson, Devin Townsend and Ziltoid the Omniscient, Opeth , Anathema, Kate Bush, Genesis, Yes, Pink Floyd.
When we feel lazy the radio supplies dedicated internet and DAB stations. Spoiled for choice.
That’s the thing, you feel the drums and bass and you hear the guitars. Guitar never appealed to me even though I started on it. I was hooked on the bass when the music teacher brought one in and I heard the tone. Just fits perfectly for me. Maybe more sensitivity in those frequencies 60 – 120 Hz. That’s were I like to keep the bass so it doesn’t overlap the guitars who play in the low mids. I boost around 1KHz for a bit of punch.
Stoned Jesus and Space Slug are both Polish (I think), they aren’t that well known but well worth a listen.
I did miss out on seeing Opeth, Dream Theater and High on Fire (I think) play once. Apparently the drum off between DT and Opeth was immense!
Pink Floyd is always welcome, I do like ‘Wish you were here’ when I’m doing the Sunday roast.
Being deaf, it has to be heavy metal for me. I still love to go to concerts (well, I did in the ‘before-times’) because I can ‘feel’ the music. Dream Theater, Tool, Slayer, Rammstein, Mastodon, Black Sabbath – anything which ‘chugs’ and causes your diaphragm to resonate.
What doom metal band would this be, Beardy Gaz/
Meanwhile, I listen to a lot of Magma. Have seen them, oh, three, no, four times (how could I forget the last one, at a sold out Cafe Oto ?!)
Talking of bands Polish, I <3 Riverside.
Honourable mention to Lunatic Soul.
Pink Floyd “One Of These Days”!
I’ll go for an outdated choice. One of Bach’s more majestic pieces to go with the flow, or Vivaldi’s concerto for two violins to go with the vigorous fountaining.
The Ocean /The Ocean Collective is a band that should be a household name for anyone interested in geology/volcanos/extinctions. Specially their two latest albums.
Phanerozoic I: Palaeozoic
Phanerozoic II: Mesozoic / Cenozoic
Been listening to Handle’s organ concertos since waking up, but now I might just have to play Genesis’ “A Trick of the Tail”…”Dance On A Volcano” seems appropriate 🙂 (“Wish You Were Here” would be next – “Shine On You Crazy Diamond” appropriate too, since I worked at a diamond mine recently before early retirement – mine was a pipe type)
Genesis, Porcupine Tree, Pink Floyd, Händel, I’m impressed by volcano enthusiasts music tastes!
Ok, time to confess. When I’m not staring at live feeds from parpy mountains, I curate a weekly avant-prog radio show on London’s Resonance 104.4 FM. Pretty sure I did a shoutout for this blog back in 2014 and played something from ‘Attahk’
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-016-1022-7
I just found this, a recent study on the Holocene eruptions of Askja, it looks like theres been a lot of eruptions there in the last 1000 years a lot more than was previously assumed. Would make sense though given Askja is one of the big volcanoes fed by the plume. Might make for an interesting article one day 🙂
I have been trying to make a map of all the lava flows from Bardarbunga in Google Earth and the north rift of Bardarbunga north of Vatnajokull is in this same part of Iceland, with a lot of very young looking flows but none of them are dated. This study makes me think the area in question is a lot more active than is obvious from the existing maps. Even in the last century or so there could have been an eruption here in 1902, and in the 1700s, but theres just no data at all even jardfraedikort.is doesnt distinguish any flows here.
Interesting!
I strongly urge you to write about what you found. We do need more good material 🙂
And I agree, that area is understudied to say the least.
The latest timelapse, only the ruv cam between 14:45 and 21:10. 1 second = 5 minutes
I doubt I will continue with these regular timelapses though.
https://youtu.be/GpbeJkCEj-0
Your work is much appreciated – thank you!!!!
Thanks for your efforts! Highly appreciated.
Thankyou, Virtual, really appreciate your efforts, especially when the cam hoarders made it difficult. The timelapses have made it much easier to track changes in the eruption.
The skylight is a blowhole now. This makes me happy.
It is spattering now 🙂
Which leads me to yet another question that has been bugging me since I saw a large boulder fall straight down Norđri’s throat and a possible fountain response in Suđri:
How are the two vents’ plumbing connected? Are the pipes being enlarged by heating/abrasion/hydraulic action? Will any enlargement lead to the combination of 2 into 1 bigger vent?
Early i was think it could be two separet pipes that go little away from each other under. But lately they do conter react little i think.. Then i was thinking if the pipes devide in one smaller one larger in size after they split up. Pressure in each one must be little different even if have same source. And maybe thats why one try to reach the sky and one make a hottub . But i am a nobody when it is to pressure on magma / lava. Still follow and try to learn.
Yes, I’m here to follow and learn, over 25 years after graduating. When I stop, I’ll be gone from this existence. .
Where has the lake gone? Only the levee walls are left
See my comment ^^
It started draining before 7am. There’s a breach next to the cone.
As has been noted previously, the lava cools and ‘hardens’ and thus sinks (if I’ve over-simplified the process – apologies from a newbie). Saddening to see, but gives a “better foundation” (?) for future fillings.
I was shocked to see the extent of that when I started watching again….but I suppose volcanoes will do what volcanoes want to do 🙂
I still can’t quite get my head around this. I blame it on all those simply perfect diagrams of lava lakes and traps in textbooks.
Thank you for that interesting and thoughtful article, Albert!
I had always assumed the Laacher See eruption was pretty small. I’ll go back and read up on it again.
Meanwhile, back to eruption watching! But no Swedish sized coffee for me. Only a small one. Strong coffee and a dodgy ticker do not mix well! 🙂
No Laacher See was a massive eruption, VEI 6 and probably bigger than any eruption in the 20th century. Often though it is termed a ‘supervolcano’ which it is definitely not, but in trying to avoid that name it is very underestimated. If an eruption like that were to occur again in that general area or at the same place it would be almost apocalyptic, Laacher See was a maar eruption, probably the most dangerous form of volcanism, this thing would have been like Krakatau but on land…
Oops – sorry Tallis. The Admins should have put your name on the top!!
The truth will always be revealed at some point.
Not me: this is a Tallis guest post. We are always open for contributions from our guests. They can be send to the vc email address and will be looked at by the admins. We will do small edits if needed, and suggest larger edits if those are needed. It is a pretty safe process.
And the roof is gone. 10:07:54 (I think)
Interesting that the early part of the eruption the cone would form over the top of the channels easily but now ever since the cone collapsed it has never managed to rebuild itself into a complete cone again, with even the gollum vent seemign to be enlarging its crater further rather than building a cone. To me it looks like either the eruption rate has gone up or the temperature of the lava has increased, or both.
I wonder if anyone has ever taken a screenshot of the eruption on the first few days and then overlayed it to what it looks like now, to me it looks a lot bigger.
I am producing some field sketches for us, I will add that to the list. Thanks for the suggestion.
Are there any GPS positioned drone flights whose video you can access to aid you in your quest?
I’ve been tossing around ways to get precise positioning data, which is ‘vital’ for your project, and the drone flights would be the “easiest”, though may not be the most accessible.
I will use the two webcams, photos and videos in the public domain, in combination.
GPS fixed data and images would be ewesome.
We’d need a tame drone pilot…
Gollum vent is forming a nice splash pool now : ) I hopes it forms something like the Surtur lava flows Big splash semi
dome fountain pool connected with lava tubes .. But eruptive rates are still too high
Yes, it looks like that is going to be a new breakout if it can just get the strength right. If it’s too weak, it will end up plugging the gap.
A breakout could flow straight through the hot tub, creating a new flow to the east which hasn’t had much up til now.
Is the cone side slumping? On mbl camera the cone is encroaching on the hot tub and has blocked the exit.
Oh this is fun. How the unexpected surprises us.
Draining the pool has exposed a tunnel underneath the cone and lava has started to flow out.
So, now there is a race between the flow forming a tube, and the scoria burying and entombing it, stopping the lava in its tracks.
Virtual — thanks for the timelapse reel.
Went back to the latest zooming around event, and noticed that there’s been put up, what I assume is, a “No crossing this line” boundary in front of the camera.
Good cop strategy. I wonder if that will have some effect. We will get some nice evidence of behavioural science in the near future.
Sadly, sometimes one science loses while another gains.
We will get some data for the grockle project this afternoon when the area reopens. Personally, I’m thinking they will behave like cats with a cardboard box. Or, will they be completely stymied by a yellow tape induced forceshield?
I used to think of Icelandic people as independent and sensible. Now I would add ‘opportunistic’ to this, and may have a question mark at the ‘sensible’ part.
Albert, a people who build suped up trucks and then drive straight up vertical cliffs have a very loose grip on sensible.😂
Hi, 2 years ago i was travelling in Indonesial. Didn´t go to Lake Toba, because of the unrest at Sinabung, but went to Lake Maninjau -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Maninjau – Was a nice lake, except i started to feel a bit out of place when I realized it was a caldera. 5x20km , or so. Eruption approx. 50.000 years ago. 200 cubic km – a bit smaller than Toba.
Is there any study out that mentions the climate impact of the Maninjau eruption ?
Klaus
I am not aware of any. It is difficult to associate an old eruption with a climate event. The climate event may last a decade or two, and the date on the eruption may be uncertain by 1000 years. An eruption that size likely did have an effect but how large we don’t really know.
Surge after rockfall11:48
Geldinga-dingaling. Geldingadingaling My local rural South coast English translation. I hope Icelanders approve.
I became interested in those gas flames last night above the tall south vent.
Are they related to the MIR gas vents and black smokers?
The gasses under sea are released under great pressure from the sea above. The gasses the exit Geldingadingaling are not released into anything greater than 1 atmosphere.
This pressure difference and the fact that the gasses are released into air not water will effect the gasses makeup and presentation to the Webcams. The red glow appears probably, slightly different to the naked eye, people with experience in the field probably have a hunch what the gas is largely composed of.
One thing for sure it’ll be special.
It appears to me that the lava flow is perched noticeably higher today.
Really people should stay away from the edge, certainly by the North webcam.
I realise that we loose depth perception using webcams, but it is higher and a greater threat.
I’m in the Sussex Weald, but grew up on the coast. Great geology, but no volcanoes any where near.
I’m a bit north of you. In between the urban “volcanoes” of Crawley and Croydon!
Surrey, eh!? I married a railway signal engineer, and we live in one of two villages that refused to have the newfangled railway anywhere near them…
East Sussex coast here…a certain industrial port… 10 mins to beach….:D
Newhaven? Used to do year 10 field trips to Newhaven and Seaford for coastal landforms and tourism. My DH grew up in Seaford…
The chalk gets a bit boring after a while though!
Chalk boring? Never. Upper, Middle, Lower, with the Wealden inland. Lots of periglacial features, like the raised beach at Brighton Marina.
You’ve also got the overlying Tertiary fluvio-deltaic deposits round the corner from/below the Fort and harbour lighthouse arm.
To me looking at the way the lava behaves it might still be a while before the valley overflows, the lava flow seems to be able to hold a lot of weight as evidence to the edges of the lava field being big cliffs of a’a instead of a flat surface like we see at the lava lake at Kilauea when it was first forming. The lava is also flowing away from the lowest point in well defined channels now so will likely fill everywhere it can before there is any push to the east. If it keeps going long enough the surface of the lava field might begin to founder and turn into a smooth lava lake too.
I imagine when it does break out of the valley though it might be a big flow, especially if there is a significant overfilling with the lava lake held behind a lava dam. Could be very dangerous with how many people are always around that area, the breakouts can have way higher flow rates than the eruption rate at the vent, equivalent to even hundreds of m3 a second in some cases.
Compare and contrast with Halema’u ma’u’s latest incarnation would be a great post.
Halemaumau was much faster at the start, the old north vent was going at 70 m3/s at least, on the first day there was about 10 million m3 of lava erupted, whic his about as much as the entire volume of this eruption in Iceland so far, maybe a bit less. But the effusion rate at Kilauea has been below that measured in Iceland since mid january, now it is only about 1-2 m3/s, the supply rate to Kilauea is higher than that so eventually it will either surge or another fissure will open somewhere but that might still be a while off, a few months probably.
The two cones in Iceland are much bigger than the spatter cone at Kilauea though, partly because of longevity but also the fountains are higher and its not on the side of a caldera, I read that the cones are nearly 100 meters tall which seems excessive but theres no good scale.
I would think that they are 30-40 meters tall. They have grown a lot since people were last seen standing next to them, but 100 meters seems a bit high
There is a scale. Gravity. If you use a stopwatch to measure the time t from the top of the trajectory of some magma until it hits the ground, the height of the trajectory is approx 5t². So if it takes 3 seconds, it’s 5*3² = 45 meters.
I’m reminded of Cricket AM’s ‘hang time’ competition where catches were timed from bat to catch, the camera following the trajectory. After a video, they would guess at the length of time, then play it back with ticking stopwatch as the live studio audience roared along.
I mourn the passing of the reason to get up early on summer Saturdays 😒
wow….@ 1257:35 Gollum (R) big collapse
Where can you rewind to see this,please? I can’t figure it out on the YouTube stream.
just drag the red line at the bottom of the screen along – time is in white at the bottom – bit trial and error to get to the right bit
Thank you. 🙂
Huuuuge collapse on the left vent around 12:58
Geldingadalir eruption – changes at the vents 3 April 2021
Hi all
Last night the lava pond north of „Norðri“ (the north vent) was partly drained as can be seen via the attached frame grabs from the mbl.is streaming from the eruption. Note, the white hachured line shows the outline of the pond. The surface of the pond has been lowered by a few meters, but the drainage direction has not yet been established, although the drop in the northern rim of the pond may suggest drainage to the northwest. Lava continues to flow into the pond, and it will be interesting to she if and how fast the eruption manages to fill it up again.
Furthermore, it is interesting that the piles formed by partial collapse of the vent ramparts have moved and obviously can float in the lava river. The pile with the yellow dot has moved considerable distance downstream, while the one with the orange dot has not moved but has been rotated.
https://www.facebook.com/1736063373274429/posts/2873998046147617/
Excellent annotated photos.
Love the comparison! Btw ponds is filling up now!
So random question. Is it possible in any way for magma with a temperature of 2000C to erupt onto the surface as lava outside of something like an impact event tearing the crust open?
Impact events can generate
20 000 C temperatures! Early Hadean Earth was a boiling inferno shining like a sun of vaporized rock and magma oceans
Perhaps a New Major Superplume event under oceanic crust coud theoreticaly erupt 1550 C magmas today. But the upper Mantle have cooled alot since Hadean. The lower mantle still indeed retains alot of primodial heating as Hawaii suggest.
Hawaiis Punahonu was generated during an extremely powerful core plume sourge in supply. Magmas formed at
1710 C there .. as hot as liquid titanium! Perhaps Komatites are buried deep inside Punahonu?
Althrough cools on the way up.
If Hawaii was on thinner litosphere we woud see generaly hotter than 1170 C
Generaly I think that the Mantle is too cold to produce 1800 C magmas today. But a bit over 1500 C should be possible to reach in Some extreme plume events. If a theoretical hyperplume emerge under a fast spreading oceanic ridge.. then it gets really hot.. with No thick crust to pass through
Earth one week after the Theia event woud be an Impressive sight! Shining like a star .. sourrounded by vaporized rock and molten debries.. hot enough to damage your eyes If you looked at it .. very bright. Alot of the hot rock vapour debries condensed into glass sand around the infant earth and the glowing disk formed the Moon
The Hot Earth woud look perhaps like a protostar in a glowing cloud .. for a while after theia.
The Earth cooled supprisingly fast even after souch events and reforming its oceans when it cools below steam boiling points.. earths ancient oceans was maybe vaporized many times by impacting protoplanets
2000 C lava close to boiling point of some minerals woud be a very strange lava indeed … looking like liquid sunlight.. flowing over the surface .. woud be a scary sight and more fluid as Olive Oil or iron slag perhaps … white hot and melting ground underneath during long lived eruptions
Hawaii is a very strong Hotspot
( well over 1500 C in upper magma melting region )
Very very hot… But its under thick litosphere and lavas are stoored inside large shields and cools off ..erupting at 1160 C not much more than other basaltic Volcanoes ( sometimes Hawaii goes well above 1200 C depends on How fast it rises. )
If Hawaii Hotspot was located in the superfast spreading EPR ridge where There is No litosphere at all.. and hardly any crust to pass through woud it erupt at almost 1600 C ?
Place a Mesozoic style Super Mantle plume Event under a Superfast Spreading Ridge ..
Then you will get some very hot magmas indeed …althrough souch mantle overturns often happens under the thick supercontinents
Just a theory, but given that there is some good evidence Kilauea has on at least one occasion totally drained its entire upper magma chamber, the 1500 C deep interior would have nothing to cool it down. Maybe the first lavas to erupt after this could have erupted at these temperatures.
Would be surprising to me if the mantle today isnt even hotter than this. Puhahonu was enormous but also stands alone, its probably at most half the volume of Hawai’i, and then there is also Maui Nui. Todays hotspot surge is a lot bigger, so should also be at least a comparable temperature. Possibly the reason we dont see this is that olivines recording this temperature dont get to the surface, Gardner Pinnacle is a deep eroded remnant that might have been way underground.
In this case potentially in the first scenario Kilauea could have been erupting some 1700 C lava, which is hot enough it would look just like the liquid metal in a thermite reaction… 🙂
I’m slightly puzzled; how could a magma chamber be completely drained? Do you mean that the mush has totally gone and only phenocrysts remain? Surely that wouldn’t be a magma chamber any more?
The deep rift mush was still there but all of the shallow storage drained. Everything, all the what was at that point probably 10 km3 upper chamber feeding summit eruptions, the 30 km3 south caldera chamber, the 10+ km3 of magma stored in the east rift, the even more magma that has still not been replaced that was in the Puna Ridge, all of it drained.
The eruption was in the deep sea at the end of the Puna Ridge around 11000 years ago and was quite possibly the biggest effusive eruption anywhere in the recent history if the earth. I overlayed an outline of the flow on google earth and it is enormous, something like almost 1000 km2 in area, and being in the deep sea probably inflated a lot more than a flow on land. Its probably bigger than Laki and Eldgja combined, could be getting to over 40 km3.
Hector is the one who deserves credit to this information, I am only recalling what I remember he wrote in a comment. Im sure if he sees this he will elaborate 🙂
Thermite creates liquid iron at 2862 C, its obviously not naturally occuring but it is something relatively accessible.
Also corium, the intensely radioactive lava that is the product of a nuclear meltdown. Corium made in a furnace using depleted uranium so it is ‘safe’ has a melting point over 2000 C, it also actually looks like lava too.
Whoa! Nice debate above…althought I somehow miss the scientific egg on it…but is just because I don’t have the fundamental ideas…volcano and lava and magma and so on are just a hobby curiosity. Now, if is to be on road again…all this come as prologue for a debate regarding our iceland twins? anyhow, I do consider that the lava volume expel has increase and more than that the lava temprature rise a little. Judjing from my related skills I’ve got..too much yellow on the cam. Am I judging right? If its so…the scientific body what does consider? there are some new lava temperature readings? why are not using pirometers? Am I too blondy to ask this?
I wouldn’t try judging and temperature changes in the colour of the lava as seen on the camera, Different exposures will change the colour from red to yellow
you’re right but, we’ve got same cam. so more or less after a lot of days looking at the exposure change is not so different, plus…looking at the lava speading …a lot of boiling points which came more and more by day, aint it a sign that lava is somehow hot more since the beggings?
As a true-born natural blonde I resemble this remark. 😉
When engaging in science, there are no “blondy questions”; just queries aimed at expanding your knowledge base.
Top of the wall collapse right vent, starts roughly at 16:08, then slowly crumbles/slips with surges etc, then a large part at 16:10:50, and then there’s a big crack down the centre
hirrr mist and rain….so, god doesn’t like pizza oven, so it came apart…..should we consider that’s a cloacking for a new show??
Hey! What happened to the ruv feed? I’m gone for about an hour and when I come back it’s just blank white.
Rain rain go away, come again when the volcano’s done erupting!
I suspect it’s fog. The RUV camera is further from the action than the K100 camera. More fog to shoot through.
both twin heads spit out a lot of lava flow…
Is it just me or is the north vent finally (re)building a cone?
Yep seems like it
From the RUV site:
Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a volcanologist, estimates that lava will flow from Geldingadalur in one to two weeks. Lava puddles that had formed north of the crater of the North were partially emptied last night. The surface of the lava pool, or lava pond, dropped by three to four meters last night.
“She builds up her own bosom and since then so much has been put into the lava pond that the bosoms have given way and started leaking out of it. It happened last night. The ridges are lowest on the northwest side, so I think it is probable that the lava flowed to the northwest, “says Þorvaldur.
He says there are no signs that lava flows are higher than they have been. However, lava flows from the valley. “Obviously, these accounts are not very accurate. I would guess that it would leave the valley between twenty and thirty days after the start of the eruption, then in the next one to two weeks, “says Þorvaldur.
Þorvaldur says that the eruption can be expected to last for months or even years, “and I just hope so because it will be fun to see how this wind continues,” he says.
Sounds like she needs a better supporting bra! 🙂
So, Icelandic lava hot tubs are female! She did look very round, a bit like ice saucers.
I was musing over Þorvaldur’s analysis (thank you Benja).
I had been wondering if the lava that had sunk down on the left of the TK100 Cam had instead entered an extension of the main fissure. The sunken area is approximately in line with the two cauldrons and the steaming crack on the hill behind them.
If the fissure continues in that area, is it possible the lava has sunk into an extension opening? Perhaps it might meet its mantle pals coming up the other way?
Tis but a thought. Feel free to put the boot in, experts!
Grabs teeny tub of popcorn (small smackers of Easter cake having just been scoffed)
Charming idea! Maybe the little volcano is fooling us with its output, and it’s just recycling its own old lava, haha 😀
Nice fast and furious flows from the vent at this time…..
Please let the lava coming for a loooong time…….
4 hrs starring at the eruption…
Looks like this eruption coud last many decades.. its so constant and it feeds directly from the mantle and not a shallow source.
It will now act as a syringe.. sucking magma from the decompressing mantle. It will last as long as there is acessible magma at Moho .. astenosphere
Any relation to Twitter’s Bunsen and Beaker!?
Wasn’t that the Muppets, originally?
Nope, absolutly not
On the North cam the North cone looks like it has developed leak to its northern flank.
It is flowing out and making a lake pretty quick, filling up the lower area.
Is it possible that the lava boats dammed the stream from going round into the pond, and that it’s always drained away down the valley but was previously constantly refilled? Interesting to see the leak at the bottom of the cone, which half re-filled the pond by itself, before the main stream spilled over & went to re-join it; I’m wondering whether the leak was what was causing the bubbling previously?
That’s a reasonable scenario that fits the observations.
I think that a part somewhere on the outside ‘wall’ of the pool, where the lava has hardened somewhat, the pressure became too much, a breach formed and that the lava spilled over.
For the last 15 minutes I have been watching the slowly growing leak on the north cone, on its flank. While watching this, all of a sudden I saw white flashes just about the puddle area on the side of the cone. The next 10 minutes satisfied me that I was seeing burning sulfer vents with pale blue fire, the sulfer vapor pushing through the cone, just above the area where lava is extruding. I did take a recording of these pale blue white flashes, coming and going for a few seconds or so. Apparently there is a good amount of sulfur in the lava being emitted now.
Intriguing.
When is the ruv cam going to be usable again?
Judging by the weatherforcast, then I’d say at the most optimistic in one hour, however on the other hand, might not be til a bit before sunrise or even later. I know, not particularily helpful, but that’s how the land lies.
Or how the wind blows.
Big chuck falling in at 20.49, to bad ruv is out of order > no rewinds.
There is a stream of the mbl cam here which allows you to rewind.
Omg.. should have know this sooner!
Well luckily it is Eastern, lockdown and horrible weather.. which gives me loads of time to rewind and watch! 🙂
21:07, spill from northern back-lava towards the mbl camera.
OK so Carl has just discovered the delight of coffees after # 1 cup…I have been promoting this routine for years on here!! It’s 10.pm ish and washing up and most chores done for the day… slop buckets emptied and
The Victorian tippler toilet system has caused headaches,butt aches and financial stress!The man that nearly can was here again today . He has been brilliant…. the use of the toilet,shower, washing and dishwashing machine is in sight…hopefully by Tuesday. The back yard is now navigable again. The York stone flags laid back most of the way… the last 5 meters of plumbing is due on Tuesday and again will entail some excavating work to join with the main sewer. By Tuesday evening we may be flushing with success!!! We will be able to compete with the icelandic Volcanic flow! Thank you to the writer of the cheery apocalypse post (It makes a change from Covid related reading) and to everyone here for all your entertaining and informative comments. Albert! I hope your drains are fixed now…I wouldn’t wish our experience over the last 2 weeks on anybody. Off for Coffee # ….I have lost count now….. and a nice chill watching the Reykjavik Fires and listening to whatever they will play on Classic FM
Don’t look now… A third location seems to be trying to get started about 20 to 30 feet ahead of the two main ones. There is a constant spatter over there, at least 2 feet high.
Are you referring to the degassing spatter event at far right edge of the camera’s field of view? Lots of this goes on, as spaces and vesicles get filled with lava.
Yes. It is still going on as well. That is a long winded ‘vent’.
It seems to mostly happen when chunks of spatter cone get swamped with lava. I think the fluid fills the holes accessible from the surface of the chunk, displacing the gasses, which then quickly rise with the resulting spatter at the lava channel surface. The process repeats as the fluid penetrates deeper over time.
Looks a bit like a cityscape from the air!
Goood morning viet..ups volcano! I just finish my first coffe cup and discover tahat we’ve got once again a piza oven! and it seems to be more stable..done by the book with a small air vent in back! and we’ve got snow and fire! were are the dragons??
And finally we’ve got lava flow over the right flank crack….I suppose that later on today we’ll see a collapse!
Yes looking very good this morning, must be a volume increase to produce an extra flow on BO (Big one). And the main flow looks to be quite perched. Interesting times ahead.
Finally in my opinin we’ve got similar lava flow from both twins…
Gollum vent ( left ) is getting more sleepy .. perhaps forming a shield soon .. becomming a gentle lava lake feeding tubes
The Smeagol cone ( right ) seems to be more and more dominant
I look forward for that chunk between lava rivers collapse!
Uha….big collapse and once again god dont like pizza…
Big breakout on MBL Cam
Interesting how quickly the new spill blends in with the surrounding and looks like it has always been there.
The lake has started refilling
The left vent seems to be determined to potrode toward right brother…interesting strategy
8:34 odd it chucked another huge boulder on top of the pile 😉
Right cone is steaming quite a bit from it’s back. A crack has formed there I wonder?
I think you are right, the cone has slowly slumped forwards and is covering the vent like a fiery grotto again.
It is the pattern with this eruption it seems.
When the valley fills and the overflow starts, will there be a slight pattern change I wonder?
I think lava tunnels may come in to play then.
It has indeed slumped forwards. I also think the flank between the 2 vents is slowly coming apart by sliding forwards.
Sure will be interesting to see what happens once lava starts flowing in the other direction.
The slopes seem to be shallow enough to be stable, but the top at the right hand side has a steeper region which may be at risk of collapse. this is also where the crack is. Otherwise the collapses are mainly caused from within where the two craters try to enlarge themselves. If this continues for a long time we may end up with two adjacent circular craters, on top of the remnant cones.
The middle ridge looks like a medial moraine on a glacier.
another recent video from the 2nd April :
https://www.facebook.com/100047761783841/videos/2867564090226478/
so we start to have lava flow toward backstage…!
A wonderful video and don’t forget to turn on the sound.