A guest post by Tallis
The very worst case scenarios are rarely considered for disasters and for usually a good reason. They are either so unlikely or so boring that there is no point in worrying or thinking about it. The worst case impact event is one that would completely destroy the Earth and make another asteroid belt or planet entirely. The worst case tornado would be one that would produce Jarrell level damage while moving at 70 plus mph through the downtown area of a large city (Not likely at all!). Flood basalts and gamma ray bursts are similar events. However volcanic winter through explosive eruption are not like that, since we don’t even know the climate effects of upper end VEI 7 eruptions let alone VEI 8s. We can’t just sit here and say “We don’t know so forget about it.” so I have done some brainstorming and I have conceptualized a potential worst case scenario for Explosive Volcanic winter.
First let’s address the best case scenario; lately some scientists have come forward saying that VEI 8 eruptions produce limited climate effects, producing a drop in temperatures of less then 1 C. It would seem that there is cold war when it comes to the effects of these eruptions between skeptics and supporters of apocalyptic volcanic winter. Personally I think a VEI 8 eruption would likely produce a temperature drop of 5-8 C. Pretty nasty but not crazy, the mere fact that an argument could be made for a drop of 10+ C or 1> C shows how little we know.
The central battle of this cold war is the Toba eruption, various arguments have been put forth on both sides but the physical evidence leans towards the skeptics. The two biggest arguments put forward by the skeptics is that as the mass of SO2 is released increases, the aerosols will become larger and will be flushed out quicker and higher concentrations of aerosols cannot be sustained because the aerosol microphysics will lead to higher removal rates. Supporters have argued with skeptics concerning how much these factors would limit volcanic winter but there is not a lot of arguments on other ways that the Toba eruption’s climate effects could be neutered.
Some have argued that the sulfur load from Samalas eruption is the point where the aerosols become too large and are flushed out quicker. For reference, this eruption released around 120-240 megatons of SO2, if this mass would be the limit of sustainable volcanic winter, then it would be safe to say that we wouldn’t really have to worry about larger eruptions. Thankfully we have a prehistoric event that disproves this: 7,600 years ago Mt Mazama produced an eruption similar in size to the Samalas eruption also with similar SO2 amounts for the northern hemisphere. An analysis of ice cores following this eruption has shown that the SO2 was flushed out over a period of 6 years! So I am sure that means the Samalas eruption didn’t exceed the perfect mass threshold. Whatever this ”Magic Mass” is, I don’t think any historic eruption has surpassed it, for all we know it could be a pretty small number or it could be the most massive numeral.
The first limit to explosive volcanic winter is time, the aerosols usually have a lifetime of 2-3 years at the most. The worst effects will usually be gone after the second year and there is no reason to assume the rules would change with larger eruptions. Finding concrete physical data concerning an event so brief will be extremely difficult, the longer term effects are likely mild compared to other cooling events so that may not be reliable either. The Toba eruption took place during the Ice Age and I believe the Ice Age neutered the eruption.
There are two fundamental ingredients for sulfuric aerosols, SO2 and water. If there isn’t enough of one then it doesn’t matter how much of the other you have, you are not going to see much. I think the SO2 released by the Toba eruption didn’t have a lot of water to work with because of the Ice Age. This may sound like stupid argument at a glance considering the most abundant gas released by volcanic eruptions is water vapor so surely this shouldn’t be an issue. Stratospheric volcanic water vapor injections have been studied and shockingly they found that while there was an increase, it only lasted a few days, not enough time to form all of the aerosols. Other studies of the stratospheric injection of other volcanic gases, have argued that not all of them can make it to the stratosphere. In fact only limited amounts of some volcanic gases take a lasting residence in the stratosphere. Effusive eruptions likely don’t have this issue due to the fact that the plume dynamics are completely different.
During an Ice Age, natural water vapor would not be enough to react with all of the SO2, I do believe that some of volcanic H2O could make a longer residence within the stratosphere but ultimately not enough. This could actually explain why a lot of large eruptions in the past 2 million years don’t seem to produce extreme climate effects. The evidence for the basic idea of limited water vapor injections are supported with real results. So I am pretty confident this is the likely cause for the neutered climate response of Toba.
With this idea, the dynamics of large amounts of sulfuric aerosols may be even more mysterious and hard to understand. We don’t know these dynamics and until something grants us the understanding and knowledge, neither the supporters or the skeptics can declare victory. The magnetism of an incredible disaster or the fear of it can cloud someone’s mind, after all no matter how unbiased one claims they are, they’ll always be inclined to one side. I am sure you can guess which side I am inclined for.
Can we even concretely discern the worst case scenario without this crucial knowledge? No. Can we get a picture? Yes. I believe there is the perfect level of SO2 mass that balances aerosol lifetime and intensity, I don’t know what the exact value of the “Perfect mass” would be but I am sure it exists. The eruption’s size would be an important factor for the worst case scenario but it is not the most important part. What is the other part? Younger Dryas shows the answer.
The cause for Younger Dryas has been debated ranging from an impact event to a supernova but the most accepted cause is a melt water pulse shutting down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The AMOC as we’ll call it in this article, is responsible for the transport of warm water into the northern Atlantic. This is what keeps the climate of Western Europe and Eastern America warm. It is part of the Global thermohaline circulation.
There is a hypothesis that the eruption of Laacher See coinciding with the melt water pulse that triggered this event. (Note:The Laacher see volcano is in Germany and is part of a still kicking system and if you want some more information read this article https://www.volcanocafe.org/unrest-at-laacher-see-is-it-us-or-the-volcano/) This hypothesis hasn’t been confirmed, but there has been no significant evidence against it. Younger Dryas did take place very shortly after this eruption and sea ice-ocean circulation positive feedback could sustain the cooling from the eruption. The dynamics of such a process are not settled and this is what keeps this idea getting more support.
In order for this hypothesis to work, we need to find out how the melt water pulse would intensify and sustain the cooling from the aerosols. As previously mentioned the pulse would slow down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and we already have current data on what that would look like because the AMOC is weakening quickly now. Whether one believes in apocalyptic anthropogenic climate change (I am pretty skeptical myself) doesn’t change the fact that the AMOC is weakening pretty quickly now and in fact, this is the weakest it’s been in 1600 years. (The data goes to 450; it was stable from that time to the 19h century.) I believe this could be what has been driving the recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons and some of the recent powerful European windstorms as well. We can see clearly the results of this change in the ocean, as a growing blob of cold water exists in the northern Atlantic. This slowdown would lead to a decrease in salinity as well as temperature.
The first thing that would enhance the volcanic winter is the fact that freshwater freezes quicker than saltwater, with a sudden influx of cold freshwater with the reduced transport of warm saltwater. A significant amount of sea ice could develop, how much though, would depend on the scale of the cooling. Due to the nature of volcanic winter, the most intense cooling would take place during the summer, and as such for a year or 2, sea ice melt would be weak and could actually build. Once the aerosols are removed, this sea ice would melt and would disrupt the circulation even more so.
If enough sea ice develops, then the ice could increase the Earth albedo, and give the volcanic winter a decent boost as well. With the weakening of the AMOC, there would be an increase in baroclinicity, which would lead to more powerful extra-tropical cyclones. Which means there would be more significant snowfall which could also give the winter a boost.
It has been said that large volcanic eruptions are perfectly capable of decreasing heat flow to the arctic all on their own after all the AMOC isn’t the only circulation on this Planet! The AMOC is connected to other major currents across the world, including the Kurishio and East Australian currents, they all make up the global thermohaline circulation so if you mess with one then you mess with it all. So the volcanic eruption and meltwater pulse would mess with the other circulations as well, likely to a lesser extent.
Just simply with the nature of large scale volcanic winter already messing this circulation, we have some issues, with a meltwater pulse, that makes it even more nasty! However, even though the current disruption to the AMOC is related to the warming of the Planet, global cooling is perfectly capable of disrupting the circulation as well. In fact I just explained how that would work earlier! So with the sudden disruptions to climate through the aerosols the weakening of the circulation would actually begin to intensify and get worse.
This wouldn’t be a quick event, with the cooling lasting for decades and the circulation on life support, smaller volcanic eruptions would make things worse and could sustain the trend for a longer time. This wouldn’t last forever though as other variables to the climate exist and if we are to assume that the water vapor in the stratosphere has a big role on the scale of volcanic winter then it would be safe to assume that after a while there wouldn’t be enough to sustain any more large scale volcanic winter but the question is…was the Laacher see eruption big enough to affect the circulation like this? At a glance, it may seem a little outlandish. The eruption was only the size of the 1912 Novarupta eruption and the SO2 load was similar to the Tambora eruption, this eruption produced around 120 megatons of SO2.
But let’s investigate this proposition a little further, was there any eruption like this historic times? Any eruption with real and well studied effects? Yes! In fact, it has around the same SO2 load and took place firmly in the same hemisphere. Her name was Laki.
Starting June 8 1783, this massive fissure would release 14.7 cubic km3 of liquid magma with 0.8 km DRE of tephra as well over 9 months but mostly within the first 6 months covering the Europe haze laced with volcanic gases that killed tens of thousands and produced one of the most severe volcanic winter known in history. While it is unknown, it is possible that the volcanic winter killed or helped kill millions worldwide. This eruption also produced around 120-150 megatons of SO2, however the plume dynamics of this eruption ensured that not all of that gas would make a lasting residence in the stratosphere. Looking at this table we can see the total drop in solar irradiance from this eruption is around 15.5 W m-2. It is important to note that all of that only goes for the northern hemisphere and once you factor that in Laki can stand with top 3 eruptions on this list.
The eruption of Laki caused a drop of temperatures of around 1.3 C for the northern hemisphere, a very bad volcanic winter to say the least. I think this gives us a picture on the potential climate impacts of the Laacher see eruption. I am sure the climate impacts would be far more significant then the Laki eruption due to the fact that most of the SO2 would make it to the stratosphere and be converted to longer lasting aerosols. An abrupt drop of 1.3+ C should be enough to produce some significant sea ice and snow. Whether the Laacher see eruption caused Younger Dryas or not, an eruption could enhance the effects of a meltwater pulse and slowdown of thermohaline circulation and vice versa. (Once the eruption is large enough!)
The worst case scenario, would be a large eruption with this hypothetical perfect SO2 mass taking place with a meltwater pulse with a neutral or negative ENSO. I am not qualified to give any specific numbers but I am sure this would drop global temperatures by at least 9 C Once again, I can’t actually prove my hypothesis but someone else can! If there are any climatologists and volcanologists reading this, please give the idea a whirl!
It wouldn’t be one of my articles if I don’t somehow try to connect this to the present! So are the conditions currently suitable for a Younger Dryas scenario? That’s a resounding NO but I do believe current conditions are suitable for good volcanic winter. We already have the issues with the AMOC but are there any other supportive variables? Currently in the southern hemisphere we have significant icebergs breaking off and the West Antarctic ice shelf is unstable, if we can get more ice to break off we might be able to see some disruptions to the circulations in the south.
Another issue is that the Beaufort Gyre, an Arctic sea current, has been accumulating fresh water for years and it will ultimately release this water back into the Atlantic. This isn’t anything compared to the Freshwater released during Younger Dryas but it is still significant. This wouldn’t be enough to take the volcanic winter to Super Saiyan but it could be enough for Kaio-ken. We have seen the stratospheric water vapor increase over the past years as well. This has been a problem for the Ozone layer, as water vapor helps in the destruction of the ozone. Now I couldn’t find the exact number but we can find out with the information we have. Currently there are 4-10 ppmv of water vapor in the stratosphere, now the stratosphere contains around 20% of the atmosphere’s mass and the total amount of particles in the atmosphere is 1.09×1044 so let’s divide that by 20%, Um I mean 5! Which leads to 2.18×1043 let’s kill 6 zeros and multiply value by 4 which gives us 8.72×1037 . The molar mass for H2O is 18.01528(33) g/mol so let’s divide again by 6.02214076×1023 which gives us 61,772,053,298,867 lets multiply that 18 and divide that by a million, which gives us 1,111,896,959 tonnes. On the lower end, on the other end we get 2,779,742,398 tonnes.
With this we find that even if the Toba eruption took place now, there still wouldn’t be enough water vapor for all of that SO2 and this is after the current climate trends supporting excess H20 within the stratosphere! Still it’s enough to support a large eruption to say the least, so if we get a nice billion ton SO2 emitting eruption, we have enough water to turn all that to aerosols. Not accounting for potential water vapor from the eruption. Ultimately, the aerosol microphysics will decide the strength of the volcanic winter in the absence of external variables and as smart as I am, that is something I couldn’t possibly figure. The dynamics of the aerosols from larger eruptions need some more research and with an open mind, this can’t be approached with the wrong deposition. I do believe the current conditions are suitable for a large-scale volcanic winter but before I conclude, I must address the elephant in the room.
The Pinatubo eruption took place recently and produced a volcanic winter, however it didn’t seem enhanced in any way despite taking place during a pretty favorable period according to my hypothesis. I know it was a pretty small eruption in terms of SO2 load compared to historic events and it doesn’t even show up in the top 25 eruptions in the past 2500 years. So that could be the answer but I believe since there was an El Nino that took place shortly before and continued a few years after the eruption, the cooling wasn’t as intense. Depending on how much El ninos reduce the cooling from volcanoes, the mere fact that there was a substantial cooling event could mean the Pinatubo eruption was enhanced.
Whatever, the reality is, I am sure we can figure it out. This cold war between skeptics and supporters must come to an end and we must find the facts concerning volcanic winter. I could be dead wrong in everything I have put forth here, but on the journey to truth we have to expect some falls. We might be able to test this idea out in real life so let’s keep an eye on the actual volcanoes too!
The Die has been cast, the trumpet has been blown
The warm light is dead, Blue skies gone,
Night is now eternal and it will never falter
The Sun has fallen and the heavens quiver,
Stars have fled, and the moon weeps
God’s wrath has come and hell awaits
The babes cry no more, they are hushed
The children look to their parents, confused
The men and women cannot answer they cannot speak.
Every beast knows what is coming, The truth is bleak
Death smiles. It will feast this hour
The angels frown. They will protect no more
Gone is the sustaining rain, the skies bring only fear and pain
Gone is the nurturing earth, the ground brings only famine
There is no love, there is no happiness, there will be no reprieve
There will only be hate, despair and tears on this eternal eve
I saw the big breakout and spillover which was cool. Around 9:28 am there was almost explosive fountaining from the north cone and I never saw such violent spray before, I believe this is new. The south cone became eruptive too, both cones indicating either more volcanic gas into the magma pipeline or perhaps hotter? The lava was literally spraying all over the south cone furiously
I meant north cone, sorry
A nice raging episode…i consider thet the right vent deserve a cone collapse
https://twitter.com/Icevolcanx/status/1378670498163347456
I noticed there has been a fair few deep earthquakes around Kilauea this past month. I guess we were all too busy watching Iceland 🙂
There is a likely possibility that a pulse of magma is on its way like what happened in 1959, which could see a much bigger eruption than what is happening there now, tall fountains and a rapid filling of the deep pit again, or possibly a rift eruption. With 0.2 km3 of lava coming in every year an eruption rate of only 1 m3/s isnt going to cut it, this eruption seems now not likely to be the beginning of another 100 year long lava lake after all, just a rather voluminous but otherwise normal summit eruption.
So far we are at 39 million m3 in 3 months when in theory it should be at about 52 million by average supply rate from the hotspot, or possibly as much as 75 million m3 if the sort of exaggerated decompression melting seen in the early 19th century is at play, which there is some support for. Cross caldera GPS is already level with its early December 2020 value, which was enough to set off the first intrusion, it could already be close. If not then Etna might have some competition later in the year or early next year 🙂
I’ve seen some of the e1959 footage. I’d better go catch up with HVO and Hawaii Tracker…
13:35 another mini mass movement from Suðri.
The lava appears more runny than usual and gas surges occasionally occur in rapid bursts with one of these bursts spraying the lava like mist, almost as if the last burst overpowers the previous two and explodes before the previous burst can complete. I wonder if more gas is entrained in the upcoming magma?
I’ve noticed that when surges of new lava ripple through, it seems to set off a chain reaction of more intense degassing and splurting.
Three S&R people on camera, reporting for duty.
Soon the hordes will descend like Gengis Khan’s Mongols. I wonder if we will see them ant-like walking over the col at centre right?
Or has the route been changed yet?
Oh Lawd, they, coming…
Like Burnham Wood to Dunsinane…
Did the wind direction just shift?
Good slow creeping overflow is heading for the hot tub.
Norðri is slumping into the crater from the north. Simultaneously, there’s a big breakout just west of it.
Things are happening…
Everything is Very shiny, at least in the K100 footage. The slump toward the hot tub is slo-mo fascinating.
Two timelapses fromthe mbl cam A fast one fromApril 3 20h30 to April 4 9:30
and a slower one just April 4 5h to 9h30
The morning part is beautiful again.
The burst at the vent around 7:40 (local time) is directly followed by a surge of the river.
I guess that’s caused by a pressure wave ?
https://youtu.be/P-Y6YVSQunA slow
https://youtu.be/O22hSXbt2Bg fast
Thanks a lot. I really like the ability to catch up on the flow in a quick overview once my daytime arrives (Mountain Time Zone)!
Looks like the Gollum vent ( left ) is slowing down .. But If it does the other vent coud take over .. hopefuly with slower rates ..lava tubes can start to form too in the lava field
Virtual, thanks again for the timelapses. As the lava broke out toward the camera, the level of the lava lake fell, revealing a ridge that was hidden previously. Cool.
Collapse of the wall on the right cone, 15:39
I too love the timelapses; they allow me to get a sense of the overall movement & composition of the cones, the “boats” & the lava flow. Thank you Virtual!
I’m becoming more & more sure that from time to time I’m seeing spatter arc upwards that doesn’t appear from either of the two cones at the front. Has an actual opening developed round the back, or is it a trick of perspective?
In which camera view are you seeing this? Can you describe the point of origin of this mystery spatter arc? Isvit radiating from one or many points?
Behind the south cone, very much at the top, mostly on the MBL one but also the RUV earlier, usually coinciding with a particularly energetic burst of steam. Mostly it’s just energetic spatter from one of the front cones arcing over to the back – wind? – but every now & then something seems to be flung up behind the cone when both vents are relatively quiet. Just before they flare up, usually.
(Reply to stars1die’s question, if it gets lost in the flow!)
Pretty sure it was just perspective; watching in the dusk, I can’t see anything coming out from where I thought I was seeing it (behind the “angle” where the south cone’s roof slopes upwards steeply from the north cone, looking from the MBL cam) or at the angle – backwards & outwards – I thought I was seeing. So – just seeing things, really!
I’m seeing a tiny bit of what looks like a little bit of steam coming from the side edge of the north cone and was also wondering if something has opened up on the backside.
*I haven’t posted in years and can’t find my original login and password! expecting this comment to spend some time in the dungeon.
Thanks to everyone who posts details of collapses and changes (that happen while I’m sleeping) so I can watch it later!
Welcome back!
If you have had previously had an account, drop an email to Volcanocafeorg@gmail.com with some details and we’ll take a look and see if we can find it.
Yes, that has been going on since this morning. It is an extension of the crack on the back but we never got an image of that. I would not be surprised if the crack eventually becomes a collapse
Big collapse @ 16:55 on the back wall of the left cone
https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2021/03/30/gosid_i_beinni/
Easier to find on this feed ..
Looking to the collapse I was amazed about the way it get lava wet and hot the plane of slippage….
I like how the lone person in blue who had stood watching the eruption, had just turned and walked away when the back wall collapsed. 🙂
It seems that all we are missing right now is the eruption…
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210401211633.htm
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2021-02/danl-fof022521.php
Which lucky volcano is going to erupt with these amazing conditions? Find out after this break.
Cool flank splash…for sure the left vent fight to bore a hole into the other vent tube…
For sure “senior” right cone have eat it self in and up, soon it going to be a total collapse of upper part of cone.. Maybe create a total change of outflow.. Even flow to side or back.. Would be interesting see a photo of backside. If any cracks appears
Or because of hight difference now it can brake the part that in between them. so they become one..
HUge lava blobs from time to time before explosive burst in the lava pond of the left vent….I wonder if the thermal field of lava tube and the one of lava pond will make a deal in the effort to reach each other…
If skipping through the recordings from the mbl cam like a timelapse thingy, then you’ll see that this section is slowly going downhill, I’m hoping that it will end up forcing the lavaflow to go over the edge and then really start filling up the area close to the camera.
Perhaps Gollum vent, the vent closest to camera.. haves a larger more open conduit now.. so it does not need to fountain anymore?clearly gas bubbles rising through the conduit dyke
http://k100streymi.mbl.is/spila/webcam0?fbclid=IwAR3MWCcgp0YH4y8_Q8BOBpVibS1oc8tV2Bc8xMS787JZIMwaoWycGNQS6N0
Very smooth and fluid now
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that there seems to be a lot of steaming on the back side of the south crater, near the top? See https://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/geldingadalur—volcano/ to get a good view of the white smoke from apparently the back side.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=BA-9QzIcr3c&fbclid=IwAR0PaPfsbKVrvJUUn-H-u8eDdyzjUqkrVTvu_YelT3M6FEUnB-Yo1kdM-iY
The lava is only getting more fluid and smooth…now it really looks like Hawaii in fluidity
This morning when both cones went into explosive ejection of lava around 9:28 am local time, in particular the north cone spraying lava into ash, as multiple bursts hammered it, I saw the viscosity of the lava from the south cone noticeably reduce, the lava running about 1.5 to 2 times as fast as its normal rate of descent in the channel. Also the lava took on a white appearance caused by the reflection of the sky from the smooth glass like character.
This late afternoon 17:00 pm or so, the lava has resumed back to a more viscous quality.
It looked to me like the last collapse of the north vent stopped at the interface of the south cones growth. The different cooling pattern is likely what stopped the progression of the collapse. Interesting that the vent itself seems to have moved closer to the newly exposed face, and is starting to almost undercut the rock that didn’t break. If/when that new barrier breaks down, it could be pretty major and has the potential to really change the flow pattern of its south neighbor.
Some really beautiful domes alternating with the fountains now.
Just waiting now that the whole top of the high cone going down.. cracks on side get bigger.. Can be that shadow when light changes also make it look that cracks get bigger. looks like it get higher flow last 20 min
@ 1846:30 mbl camera *ouch* my eyes….those insulated coveralls 🙂
Did you know that there is gold in Iceland? Did you know that a company expects to find gold, who apparently has mineral rights to the Geldingdalir eruption site? I stumbled over this nugget this morning https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2021/03/31/iceland-the-floor-is-hot-lava
I have a wish list, with things I would like to see regarding this fissure eruption:
1. map of fissure cracks all up and down the Reykjanes Penisula, where photographs were taken and maps promised.
2. accurate temperature measurement of the tholiitic lava versus days. I suspect that the temperature this morning around 9:28 am went up 10 or 20 Celsius.
3. Updates on the SAR analysis of the ground uplift.
4. Updates on chemical and mineralization analysis of the lava
I feel a big chagrined that those maps of ground fissures seem to have disappeared along with SAR maps once the fissure eruption started.
One last question, was the present mound where the fissures got started a more ancient fissure eruption site (very small) or was it a small dyke fissure from Fagradalsfjall while all was under ice?
The ancient burial ground consumed by lava had a ridge in front, that to me looked like one those floating fragments of cone we see all the time now.
But people on here have replied that there is no official records of that being part of a previous eruption cone detached fragment or any previous eruption on the site. The area has been surveyed before the eruption in the Iceland authority’s routine surveys.
The satellite shots show clearly the alleged detached cone piece.
https://www.maps.is/base/@339814,380376,z8,4
I suppose it all depends on weather it was missed or not, if it did previously erupt at all.
Looking at other satellite shots on Google earth back in time, I feel confident that it is as near as one would expect a say 2000 year (Pre Icelandic human history) old or so, detached cone fragment to look like, from the air.
On the ground however I have no hard evidence whatsoever apart from webcam time-lapse on YouTube, unless anybody else knows otherwise of course?
To me, the fertile horse pasture in the valley and up past the burial ground towards the cones, is typical hard won agricultural improvement of volcanic land by Icelanders over many 100’s of years. Now covered.
As an Islander from a different, much warmer and smaller Island, Wight, I changed out a key word of a verse in an old tourist guide book
“Time and tide wait for no man, so get down to the eruption while you can”
I love this video from:- That Iceland guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJA0SnPa_ks
Drone flight in snow over volcano. I recommend watching this on the big screen. Its like going to the movies…
The guy has one of those likable, fun, energetic personality’s. To me he is the happy Viking, said in the nicest possible way of course.
That’s new…3 hours seismic gap…
A few days ago I wrote that it was real balmy spring weather, almost approaching summer, here in the Faroes, now arctic cold has hit us, -7C bleugh and loads of snow, I want my money back, not sure from whom, but I do want it back.
22:14:20 huge chunk fell off the north vent. Not much left separating them now.
It’s like Norðri is slowly eating it’s way to Big brother
I think the lava pool is eating away at the base of the cliff until it collapses.
Agree 🙂
A map showing the lava thickness distribution in Geldingadalir, SW Iceland, on April 2nd 2021, as well as statistical information on the lava extent and discharge rate. The map is a part of collaboration between a few institutes and companies (see list on the map). The map is based on thorough drone mapping of the lava, high resolution digital elevation model from before the eruption, as well as various measurements carried out in the field. More maps and information will be published in the next few days.
https://www.facebook.com/1736063373274429/posts/2875028089377946/
Just plopping the map in here
How high are the cones now?
Are any of you able to see the stream from the K100 webcam? I haven’t been able to since the first night it was posted. It tells me ‘Could not play video. There was a problem trying to load the video.’
I use this channel.
https://youtu.be/I1I-0PUhFmU
Here’s a couple that work
https://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2021/03/30/gosid_i_beinni/
Another section of the interior wall of the left vent shearer away @ 01:39:05
Another left vent shearing event @ 02:36:20 ..
Tallis, I read your Apocalypse essay twice, reread the previous article on Laacher See VEI-6 eruption and looked up Younger Dryas on Wikipedia. Wiki restated your thesis connecting the two events. Volcanic winters strike me as possibly the worst effects very large eruptions can inflict. Thank you for helping me learn about what I submit is a very important and discussion-worthy topic.
Thank you! Volcanic winter is in my opinion, the deadliest part of a large eruption. It is unfortunate that we don’t have an accurate measure of deaths for historic events. Samalas? 20,000 in london…that’s about it. Don’t even get me started on Tambora and Laki, It is a real shame to say the least.
What what what? Younger Dryas mention? My palynology dissertation from aeons ago included that. *scurries off to get up to speed*
I think this has been covered, but the strata that flood-basalt breaches has huge impact on consequence.
IIRC, Siberian Traps began by severely ‘coking off’ thick coal seams before the intruding basalt surfaced. And, tangential, the Chix’ rock cooked a carbonate region.
Flood basalt eruptions under open water per vast Tamu Massif, or through strata that is not carbonate or carboniferous, seem more benign. South Atlantic’s Parana complex and its African twin, with Tristan da Cunha marking plume head, was a big flood event but, IIRC, there’s no associated mass-extinction…
Was there one for the North Atlantic’s opening ??
Not that I am aware of, Tr-J extinction has been associated with Central Atlantic province though.
Nice collapse, left vent back flank….the right one is stuck with that boulder…bih…
Another surge working its way down from Suđri. As the light begins to brighten, the new configuration of the volcano is slowly revealed.
Happy Easter Monday everyone. Time to put the kettle on. (Yes, I know it doesn’t suit me, the oldies are the gooduns)
At 04:40:40 a nice big outbreak towards the mbl cam. Lastet almost an hour…..
Could this be the outbreak that reaches around the cone and towards the exit? It seems to have happened what I predicted yesterday, that the rocky bit forced the lava over the edge.
@ Stars1die Kettle already boiled and coffee #1 here. Warming up watching volcano. Thank you iceland for sharing your weather. Blizzard happening here and lying snow puts paid to any gardening! A good excuse this Holiday Monday to do little but volcano watch.The weather forecast says sunny later. I hope so, as I want nothing to stop work finishing off drain repairs tomorrow.have a good day everyone.
Darjeeling teabag brewing in single cup as I’m the first to emerge today (and first time this early for about 8 months). Usually it’s loose tea in pot, the proper way. The tea bag travelled from India, under the aegis of Offspring 2 a few years ago. Hopefully it’s still reasonably drinkable.
7 degrees C here in overcast mid Sussex, feels-like temperature of 3. I even got up before the heating turned on, but it’s warming up now. I emerge from hibernation when the clocks change. The garden looks like a wild thing. Offspring 1 will hopefully cut the grass today if I can nudge him enough without him noticing. Kids, eh!?
The Darjeeling is fresh as a daisy. Amazing what individually wrapping each tea bag can do. They must be 3 or 4 years old. No expiry date on them, of course.
People passing through mbl fov. S&R clocking on? And yet another break-out heading towards the abandoned hot tub. Will this onefinally make it?
Looks great in the morning sun
Beautiful through the gasses. I have got to get my tame(ish) watercolour artist to have a go at painting this volcano. I’m sure that they’d sell shed-loads.
Very low activity level at the moment, something also shown by the low lava level in the river.
However, a massive outbreak near the MBL camera, just as someone walked past.
The person walking here at 7:20:30 is getting one hell of a view of the show! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uljcsu4wHxg&ab_channel=LivestreamEvents
Absolutly
Love those twins! They hufffin and puffin but they keep to do a job well done, gracefully put the back to the escaping way and first fill the whole valley where they been born…
Niice collapse! seems that the wall betwen vents start to crumble from up
07:21 nice fluid big flow right corner on mbl cam
Looks like the night shift is clocking off. Great breakout, each event helps me build my mental map of the valley and sort out which lavaberg and stream is where on the two cameras.
Do we have a map that shows the webcam’s exact positions and their field of view? That would be incredibly helpful and prevent me from going cross-eyed trying to work it all out.
And would it be at all possible to have a rolling summary post, perhaps with the comments disabled, so we can keep all the eq data, maps, charts, official announcements and analysis together and easily found? I spend so much time trying to refind photos etc. Having it all in one place would make my life so much easier (and help me to write an article much sooner, hint hint)
Cam 1 look from geographic soth toward north, twisted on left a little bit, while cam 2 look from about 90 degrees direction on left of first one
The RÙV cam can be seen located to the north in this image, and I’ve drawn roughly where the mbl cam is located. The mbl cam is just out of view from RÚV static position, but in some of the zooming around events you can see it, if the view is clear
Crise and Bjarki thank you. Good to know my triangulation skills are still working. My calculations were quite adjacent. And now I don’t have to hunt down that contour prediction map for the umpteenth time 😉
The islands of lava which now are exposed in the lava river bear a striking resemblance to Dimmuborgir…
And now the eruption picks up speed again, with a laminar slump at the back of the Northern vent.
I saw a piece of one of the islands fall into the lava lake, it sank completely so must be a lot deeper than it looks 😮
I was amazed too, I suppose that if there is a 30m deep layer of lava at least half of it, 15m is still jelly…
I think more than 15 m is liquid. Foundering and spattering shows how fluid it still is.
Any expert dragonly opinions on the viscosity of the lava lake, and how quickly that changes at the lake bed as heat is dissipated into the country rock?