Katla: My First Love

/ 12/07/2025

It seemed like yesterday, the day I first discovered volcanic winter while conducting research on the infamous 1993 “storm of the century,” and some passing weather enthusiast had brought up Pinatubo and volcanic winter, and from that moment, I would delve into volcanology headfirst. The first Vixen volcano that caught my eye was the Illustrious Katla volcano. She’s an enigmatic volcano that needs no introduction, the most intense volcano of Iceland, she gave birth to the largest effusive eruption in history, all while producing the most VEI 4+ explosion on the island by a mile. She’s nothing short of a beast, but unfortunately for me the beast seems to be sleepy as of late. Only meager uplift and glacial swarms has been noted at this volcano. For 13 years, I’ve silently watched her, my mind ablaze with desire, my overwhelming lust for her magma and power. Her history has entrapped me, and her potential is beyond alluring. It’s like I was born to see her erupt, made to track her movements, but alas! She’s been quiet (not recently). Do I dare to hope, though? Do I dare to wonder if she’s been silently preparing her return? It’d be a stretch even for me to think so; a mind overwhelmed with a desire is a mind that is not rational. You be the judge…

Over the past 2 months, Katla has been a little noisier with some regular quakes and some decent uplift. The seismic activity isn’t impressive for the volcano, but the uplift is pretty interesting. It’s a bit too soon to draw any definite conclusions, but there is an uplift signal that is seen throughout most of the stations at the volcano with peak rates of around 2-3 cm in June. It remains to be seen if this will last or fizzle. If this leads to anything, it’d probably be another Jokuhallap. For the past 15 years, however, Katla has been relatively restless, experiencing frequent glacier floods, glacier and deep volcanic swarms, and perhaps even small sub-glacial eruptions. Geothermal activity is high but that doesn’t mean that the volcano is building to an eruption; with anthropogenic climate change and strong hydrothermal activity could cause the unrest we see, independent of magmatic activity. The deep quakes could just be part of the normal process with Katla. However, that’s boring! The fun answer is that a series of complicated factors have hidden Katla’s great return to the stage, and the volcano has been preparing one of its largest eruptions ever! Could I prove this statement? no. Could I entertain the possibility and explain why it isn’t an insane statement to say? Yes!

The first thing we have to deal with is the lack of strong deformation with Katla, the fastest average uplift rate for the past 14 years is about 1.1 cm/yr…not very fast. Over the past 4 years, it went up to 1.8 cm/year. Compare this to Grimsvotn, whose uplift rates are 5.2 cm/year; this should prove that Katla is feeling a bit lazy. How could Katla be charging a big eruption with such pitiful uplift rates? Comparing to volcanoes is fun and can be informative, but it’s never absolute, even these 2 siblings are very different. First issue is that Grimsvotn has it easy, the glacier that covers it is only 200 m thick and it has a subglacial lake that is sustained by strong geothermal heat. Contrasted with Katla, whose 750-meter deep caldera is completely full of ice and then some. This fact shouldn’t be understated, despite the intrusion at Grimsvotn being maintained nonstop for 14 years, it always pauses and reverses in winter, and even then, it doesn’t grow as thick as the ice over Katla, thanks to the strong geothermal activity.

With this fact, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that Katla has a heavy hill to climb to produce strong, persistent uplift.

The types of magmatic recharge seem to be completely different as well. Grimsvotn’s shallow chamber is under intrusion, but the deeper system seems to be normal with little seismic activity. Katla, on the other hand, seems to be the opposite. Activity in the shallow chamber seems to be relatively norma,l barring strong glacial quakes; the real magmatic activity seems to be concentrated at 10-25 km at depth. Over the past 14 years, persistent seismic activity at this depth related to magma ascent has been noted. It’s been speculated that this is related to either a deeper chamber or a permanent feeder dike reactivating. Deep volcanic activity doesn’t produce the same strong surface warning signs that shallow unrest does in most cases. For reference, Ljósufjöll may be currently going through a deep magmatic intrusion and there is no deformation at all despite this. If Katla’s deeper system has been receiving significant amounts of magma and its thick glacier, it’s completely possible that we wouldn’t see particularly strong uplift or seismic activity. This deep recharge likely would’ve started after the 1918 eruption, perhaps with some breaks in between.

The fact is, that despite the pathetic deformation, we know that the volcano is awakening thanks to the seismic activity relating to magma ascent. The intensity of this awakening is unknown; it could be a slow and methodical resurgence, and my first vixen won’t do anything for another 20 years. There’s a non-zero chance that this was never the case, and the volcano has been chugging along full steam ahead in its restlessness. It’s no fun, there’s nothing that proves the latter, but nothing disproves it either. In my opinion, it would depend on the nature of the deeper system. If a permanent feeder dike, then I would consider the “fun” option extraordinarily unlikely. Feeder dikes are not magma chambers, and the longer they take to become active, the less of a chance there is for a fun eruption. The fact that it’s taking so long for it to produce an eruption would imply that Katla truly has been sleeping since its last eruption, and its next one shall not be special, as the gears of the volcano would still need some grease.

If the deeper system is more akin to a proper reservoir, then the “fun” option becomes more likely. Magma chambers can undergo massive amounts of magma influx and not erupt. Iwo-jima has been undergoing the most impressive caldera resurgence of the past 800 years and only just started producing magma eruptions in 2022. For Katla, this could mean that the supply to the deep chamber over the last 100 years hasn’t decreased at all; instead, the shallow system temporarily got a pause while the deeper chamber system got all the magma. Resulting in an overpressurized and primed loaded gun just waiting to be unleashed. Either Katla has spent its 100-year pause taking a break from being Iceland’s biggest firework and intends to wait even longer or it’s been spending 100 years preparing for one of its larger shows.

Unfortunately for my first Vixen, I shall lean to the former. There is simply not enough evidence for the “fun” option. It’s possible, but still firmly hypothetical. The only 2 things that could super-maybe, kind of, slightly hint at the “fun” option are the facts  that the geothermal activity has always been high at this volcano, and it’s still steadily increasing. Katla is a prolific CO2 producer, being responsible for an incredible 4% of the global volcanic CO2 emissions.  But that’s not concrete enough for me to come out and say Katla is about to go crazy. We’ve got no good measurement of how strong Katla’s geothermal activity or CO2 emissions were before the 1918 eruption, and for all we know, what we’re seeing now could be weak in the grand context of Katla. Unfortunately for my first vixen, I’ve got all the other volcanoes. After spending 12 years waiting and hoping, I’ve moved on in a way. My time with Katla is a hobby, and she no longer occupies my thoughts like the past. Chiles-Cerro Negro, Grimsvotn, and Ioto have stolen my gaze and they never disappoint with their constant and incredible unrest. Another swarm building, Strain accumulating, and an extremely complicated situation at each of these volcanoes, respectively, will continue to steal my attention away from my first vixen. Still, I can’t help but hope a little for my dearest Katla, to remind the world why her name is special. Maybe, just maybe…

Tallis, July 2025

The ice-free caldera map of Katla. This view is from the southwest. Image from Helgi Björnsson et al, 2000, Jokull 49, 29 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285499559_Surface_and_bedrock_topography_of_the_Myrdalsjokull_ice_cap_Iceland_The_Katla_caldera_eruption_sites_and_routes_of_jokulhlaups).

For further reading, we refer to Henrik’s post from 2012 which was reposted and updated in 2023 when Katla last showed unrest:

katla: a retrospective

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218 thoughts on “Katla: My First Love”

  1. Hi, thanks for this. Love the country, love the region – I am visiting the region with family in Sep 2025. Hoping to have an incident free trip, but see controlled lava (I know, contradictory).

  2. Great post, Tallis! Thank you. That little ‘no’ gave me a good chuckle. Let’s hope we’ll see something from Katla and in the short term.

    • The other side of the cone, on V3 cam, seems much more stable

    • It runs like a basaltic glacier. Also the V1 24 Hours clip shows it:

      Can this lead to an explosive eruption, if the rockslides block/enter the vent?

      • Probably not, if it does the explosion will be pretty minor and not dangerous, the vent seems open enough to consume the small rockfalls into it, although maybe that changes

        Most likely, as the cone behind the vent reaches the angle of repose it will keep falling into the vent while active and divert the fountain towards the caldera, which could result in tephra building up in front of the vent if the fountain is still very tall. As the vent becomes enclosed it might drown and start erupting with lower fountains and longer flows again, and maybe with greater drainback at the end and faster recovery, leading to faster cone building that then elevates the vent again, no longer drowned it resumes high fountaining and tephra production. Its also pretty likely as the vent gets higher pressure to start an episode increases over time and results in taller fountains. 1959 tallest fountain was one of the last in the eruption when pressure was higher than when it started.

        • The vent risks to be buried by a slow, but massive landslide of the lava-tephra masses above it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E
          The landslide includes a small sloped hill. Hot semi-liquid lava below the surface perhaps helps the mass to slide. It will be interesting to see how the physics react, if the sliding hill acutally blocks the vent.

  4. well…at least we also got some experts thinking katla might be at her maximum expansion

  5. Eldgjá happened during the first century of last Reykjanes Fires. Was there also any above-average activity of Katla during previous Reykjanes Fires? Here is a list of Katla’s eruption, but unkown whether she was active during the Fires of Roman period: https://web.archive.org/web/20071104020111/http://www.earthice.hi.is/page/ies_katlahistorical

    Since 1999 Katla appears more active or monitored than before: 1999, 2011, 2016/17 and probably 2024 subglacial eruptions. 2011 was, when some scientists predicted a big eruption in the aftermath of Eyjafjallajökull. Does the higher frequency of subglacial eruptions mean that the volcano is observed better or that it is heating up?

    • I think it’s mixture of both, Katla is heating up definitely but monitoring has given us insights into the system we didn’t have before. It’s impossible to concretely say which fact is the most dominant though.

      • The coverage of eruption history is bad before 920 AD. So we don’t know how and when Katla erupted during the previous Reykjanes Fires during Plinius’ lifetime.

        The eruptions 920 to 1918 show that there were times with high frequency and times with low frequency. F.e. 17th century (1612, 1625, 1660) and 10th century (920, 934, 960) with eruptions every 15-30 years, but other centuries with 50-60 years pause between eruptions. Since 1177 there was no pause as long as our one 1918-2025. We’ve experienced an extremely long dormant phase of Katla. It’s statistically probable that a period with more frequent eruptions will follow. The 21st century is long enough for three eruptions.

        There is a small risk for a silicic eruption. The Holocene had during 8,500 years estimated 20 silicic eruptions of Katla, but none during last 1000 years. Maybe Eldgá cleared all the remaining evolved magmas of Katla during that time, so that the eruptions after Eldgjá were only basaltic eruptions. How would the build-up toward a silicic eruption of Katla look like compared to the more conventional 1918 eruption? Does the slow development indicate that there is evolved magma below the icecap?

        • This study mentions that Eldgjá released basaltic and silicic magmas at the same time. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-020-01409-0
          Maybe this emptied the reserovir of felsic/silicic magmas for the next 1000 years afterwards. the Eldgjá eruption wasn’t as effusive as Laki, but included 16 explosive Sub-Plinian to Plinian eruptions. How long does filling of Katla’s silicic magma reseroir last until it’s ready to erupt?

          • Eldgja was also different to Laki because the most powerful stage of the eruption, with lava flows all the way to the ocean, occurred immediately adjacent to Myrdalsjokull and surely under it at the same time, and all the reports of enormous flooding in the eruption is evidence that significant eruption was within the glacier and in the caldera itself, probably where the silicic component erupted.

            Compared, Laki was dying by the time vents opened under Vatnajokull, if it started there the result would probably be the same.

            That article is also wrong in where it puts the plume. It is under Baradarbunga, and pretty specifically too. The other calderas are all some variant of ‘alkaline’, and evolved. Bardarbunga is very similar to Hawaii.

  6. https://icelandicvolcanos.is/?volcano=KAT shows the explosive worst case of Holocene: Vedde ash. Around 12,000 years ago was this largest silicic explosive eruption of Katla. They say “No such eruptions have occurred in historical times and their frequency is unknown. Warning period is unknown. Total tephra volume is >3km3” This would apply to at least a VEI5 like Mount St. Helens.
    Pyroclastic flows of Vedde ash ran at least 10km from Katla. “Tephra from such eruption will reach large parts of Europe, as was the case with the Vedde ash.”

    Is it possible that after a long calm period, a silicic eruption clears the paths for basaltic eruptions afterwards? Sometimes volcanoes erupt evolved magmas first, and basaltic magmas follow.
    Were evolved silicic magmas a reason why 2011 Katla didn’t erupt like 1823 (after Eyjafjallajökull’s eruption), when there was more shallow basaltic magma available?

    • I havent looked into it much but that diagram makes it look like a dominantly silicic volcano, which is evidently nit true at all of its recent activity. Eldgja was only basalt, just high intensity. And doesnt explain how only basalt has erupted since well before settlement.

      Seems much more likely the silicic magma is just pockets of magma that sit there for a long time, or it is now non viable. Vedde ash was at the end of the Pleistocene maybe because showing long inactivity and magma evolution, with remnant silicic magma following that. Still Eldgja is by far the biggest thing Katla has done, and really the only thing able to explain the caldera unless that is Pleistocene in age.

      • eldgja is not thought to have created the caldera, similar to how laki-based on our current data-didnt create one

        • To my knowledge the only place that has even discussed the possibility in both cases is this forum… It has never made sense

          • Holuhraun showed that distant rift eruptions are fed from central magma storage. That had not been clear before that. There is no doubt that Eldgja’s magma came from Katla. (One exception: some magma at the furthest point had ben emplaced from Vatnajokul before being forced out in the Eldgja eruption). The amount of lava was spectacular: 20 km3, more than Laki. So the question is, where did this come from? It was underneath Katla. The main supply probably can from quite deep. There would still have been massive deflation. A deep chamber would have cause deflation by ~ 100 meter across the entire Katla edifice. A shallower one would have collapsed the caldera by 5-10 times as much. Pick your choice – but if you removed this much rock, you will leave a hole.

          • I actually agree with that Albert, the caldera might have already been there but the only eruption in the Holocene able to create its current configuration was Eldgja. From what I know only one (it could be two) other known eruption is even more than 10% of the volume of Eldgja, and that was also a lava flood in the same area in the mid Holocene. The many explosive eruptions would probably have a pretty disappointing DRE really, Eldgja is probably much more than half of all the magma erupted in the Holocene.

            I also wonder how many of its historical eruptions would be explosive at all without the ice.

      • How much evolved silicic magmas can Katla produce within 1000 years? Iceland has no experience with silicic eruptions of Katla. The Vedde eruption is the largest possible explosive eruption of Kalta. How can we know then, whether Katla is building up towards a basaltic or silicic explosive eruption? I imagine that silicic magma is a bit more “lazy” than basaltic magma and prefers to do hydrothermal things, unless there is an injection of hot liquid basalt into it.

        Askja had a long calm period until 1875. The Plinian eruption 1875 included silicic magma. It opened a century of relatively frequent eruptions of Askja, including the 1920s “Fires”. In sum nine eruptions followed after the opening eruption 1875. Maybe Katla is in a similar state now, where an initial silicic Plinian eruption clears the throat for more normal basaltic eruptions.

        • I think that’s an interesting hypothesis; the felsic magma at Katla likely resulted from basaltic magma melting the silicic crust. Longer repose period would mean more silcic magma accumulation(Obvs) with the possibility that the shallow chamber hasn’t seen a lot of magma, it could mean that it might be a felsic eruption.
          If the shallow reservoir is dominantly felsic then sustained shallow magmatic unrest with no deeper component might indicate a felsic eruption, whereas deeper activity is definitely basalt magma moving.

          • The Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes says that 9% of Katla’s eruptions include silicic (= felsic, ryholite, …) magmas. After Eldgjá there happened none of them. It looks as if we’ve had 1000 years of an exceptional period without this eruption type. Sooner or later the 9% eruptions have to erupt again statistically.

            Concerning the magma reservoirs: Is there a single broad felsic/silicic magma reservoir below the caldera or are there several small magma pockets like in Askja, where most are basaltic, but a few silicic? If the latter option is correct, then it’s like an Icelandic Roulette game, where it’s a bit random, which magma pocket is activated by next basaltic intrusion.

          • I don’t know but if there hasn’t been a felsic eruption in 1000 years than that support the notion of there being more Isolated pockets of felsic melt within a basaltic magma chamber

          • Did the eruptions of Katla used different paths of magma or always the same? Hekla is an example for different locations (and paths) of each eruption. The lava flow map shows that each eruption has a different location. Unlike this Etna or Stromboli do their eruptions always on the same location.

            If Katla (like Hekla or Askja) chooses a different location for each time, it’s like an Icelandic Roulette, where each eruption has a unkown probability that magma hits a forgotten storage of silicic magma. The silicic magma is then like the green Zero in Roulette. The exception no one would bet on, but is possible.

      • The Shallow chamber is only 5-15 km3 and likely has basaltic magma in it to so even if this study is 100% true it would still be a dominantly basaltic. However, why there’s been little silcic products with this setup is interesting… My best guess would be that Katla’s past eruptions were sourced from big quick intrusions from the deeper chamber. The Basaltic magma could rise so quickly that doesn’t interact with the shallow chamber that much. It’s also possible that not all of the intrusions from the deeper chamber interact with the shallow system with how small it is.

        • Does the failed eruption 2011 (only subglacial tremor) tell us something about the magma composition in the shallow reservoir? I imagine that if there was mainly hot basaltic magma in Katla’s systems, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption would have had it easier to initiate a Katla eruption like 1823. A sluggish viscous felsic magma could be a reason why there didn’t happen a significant eruption.

          If we compare 2011 to 1821-23, do we really know the mechanism how Eyjafjallajökull initiates Katla’s eruption? What lacked 2011?

          • I think that not a lot of magma ascended in 2011, it probably take a more vigorous magma intrusion to cause an eruption. I am iffy about how connected Eyjafjallajökull’s eruptions are to Katla’s but they do share the same deep source so it could be easily be explained with deep rooted unrest influencing both systems

          • How valid were the assumptions of some scientists 2011 to predict an eruption of Katla? On what did they base their predictions on? Only the 1821-23 statistical events or also any kind of causal relation?

  8. Thanks for the reminder of great Katla.

    Reading a bit about flood basalts. Stumbling upon Rivne, Ukraine/Poland. Why would there be a flood basalt at all? Well it is also called Volhynian Flood Basalt, is an estimated short 😂 579-570 million years old and belongs to the Central Iapetus Magmatic Province, then located near the South Pole.

    The flood basalt of the Central Iapetus Magmatic Province is thought to have finished the Ediacaran Glaciation.

  9. Tallis has never been reserved about the level of volcanic disaster he would have visited upon the environment and it’s humanity in order to satisfy his passions. When wondersif a VE-8 out of his beloved Katla would be sufficient enough to curb his enthusiasm.

    • I am the 3rd horseman of the apocalypse, the herald of famine and darkness, volcanoes are my favored tool for the mission.

      In all seriousness, one can’t help when researching the incredible history of the power of volcanic eruption and wonder what it would be like to behold that power for one’s self. I can’t help it! It doesn’t help that human civilization is on borrowed time with current trends.

  10. First time commenting.
    Was wondering if you were going to do new article on the recent seismic swarm at Chiles-Cerro Negro?
    Keep up the great work!

    • Thank you! I’ve got an unfinished draft, I am still working on a section, and need to organize some information. Tempted to wait and see if the SGC or IGEPN will do a special report.

      This is an interesting swarm to say the least. The situation is too complicated for me to put in the comment section but this could be the start of another major seismic crisis

  12. I noticed this just now, the recent ongoing sequence of tall fountains at Kilauea have stopped the slow summit extension since the beginning of the year. The vent now is probably more open than ever before, maybe because there is only one now so it gets the full undivided flow rate.

    Its too early to tell if it is at equilibrium or going down, or how long this trend might last. But at this point it is probably safe to say this is a new (almost) permanent feature.

    • The slow landslide may help the vent to be “reborn” on a higher position. Above the main glowing vent has opened a new, minor hole in the lava-tephra-mass that looks like a possible future vent. If the landslide enters the old vent, this new one may take over https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E

      It’s possible that the cone grows in metamorphose steps.

      However, volcanoes can ignore humans, but not physical laws. The volcanic cone has to build a base on its east and northeast side to get more stability. If lava and tephra doesn’t accumulate there enough, gravity will force the inclined cone to slide all the time towards the northeast. Now we have a sliding volcano on turtle speed.

      • Yes I think that is how the vent will get raller too, its growing up much faster than the caldera floor as a whole, and now the cone is able to fall into the vent that might speed up even more.

        • This video shows the sliding volcanic hill:
          https://youtu.be/U1vbugr5eg0

          It looks like a massive but slow a’a lava flow caused by gravity.

          We have to expect more of this type of landslides between the episodes. The episodes drop lava and tephra only on one side of the cone. This side is usually the upper side on the W/SW side of the cone along the Caldera Rim. We know that lava isolates heat well, so the deep interior of the lava volume is still relatively liquid like the warm wax of a candle. It allows tha lava/tephra to creep back into the caldera like a glacier.

          It will be an interesting volcanic quasi-experiment to observe how the onset of the next episode will react to the landslide.

  13. 2011 Eyjafjallajökull erupted basaltic andesite first at Fimmvörðuháls, while the explosive second eruption contained trachyandesite. Was the relatively effusive/hot magma that erupted at Fimmvörðuháls first the same magma that intruded the trachyandesite magma chamber and forced it to erupt?

    Can resh basalt that enters an evolved magma chamber both cause a silicic eruption in one spot and ungo partially the evolved magma chamber to do a second basaltic (or basaltic andesite) eruption?

      • This behaviour may also happen on Katla during Silicic eruptions:
        “An explosive or effusive basaltic eruption could follow or occur contemporaneously with such silicic eruption, as may have been the case 12,000 years ago – the Vedde ash has both silicic and basaltic tephra component. Progress of such an eruption is unknown.”
        https://icelandicvolcanos.is/?volcano=KAT
        Unlike Eyjafjallajökull the basaltic eruption wouldn’t be effusive, but also explosive. In this case Katla would both do silicic (dacite, rhyolite) and basaltic explosive eruptions with great ash plumes annoying Europe. A difference between Eyja and Katla: Eyja erupted intermediate Trachyandesite, that is less evolved than Katla’s potential Dacite/Rhyolite magmas. Maybe Eyja erupts the half evolved magmas each time, while Katla breeds for longer on its magma eggs.

  15. Bruh, I googled Chalpatan Caldera and Gemini referred to one of my articles from 5 years ago…

  16. Next Kilauea show comming up sopon with souch prolific magma supply as it haves it will be fun to see giant lava spray fountains and massive clastogenic flows. Grimsvötn while much less supply haves now two giant open water lakes in the caldera ( check Google Earth as result of increased geothermal flux.

  17. Erta Ale did an explosive eruption (visible in Facebook). 2017 was an ash eruption linked to crater collapse. Is this the probable cause again?

    • I just saw it and was curious too. Crater collapse or a portion of the wall falling into the lake seem like good options.

    • Crater collapse is likely but the cause is a mystery just now. The MIROVA heat emission data shows nothing really noticeable, apart from a couple very high peaks the activity has been pretty weak recently, so it might not have even had much of a lava lake recently just an infrequently erupting slatter cone overflowing possibly.

      That looks like it has very recently changed though, there has been a spike up to 5GW, which is comparable to some of the weaker episodes of fountaining at Kilauea, so there is very likely either a big overflow or a collapse that has exposed a lot of hot and maybe incandescent material. From the satellite it seems the seco d option is more likely abd fits with the ash too.

      I havent heard about any earthquakes but its pretty likely lava is about to flow out somewhere in the area soon. Whether a flank vent of Erta Ale, or potentially one of the neighbors erupting, its probably going to be significant, if the thermal is a collapse then nearly half the existing caldera might have been consumed, much more than the existing pit craters.

  18. Was the “biggest possible” explosive eruption of Katla “Vedde Ash” a VEI6?

    Do we have a complete list of Iceland’s VEI6 eruptions during Holocene? Europe’s last Pleistocene VEI6 was the Laacher See around 12,000 BP. Wikipedia (list of large Holocene eruptions) mentions some VEI6:
    – 1477 Veidivötn
    – 1362 Öraefajökull
    – Grimsvötn 8230 BC
    Hekla did frequently VEI5, but no VEI6.

    • As always, trying to find out about eruption sizes turns into a pain in the butt, at least for me. Rough research on the Vedde ash gives me volume estimates ranging from 7 to 20km³. Some say its attributed to the Sólheimar ignimbrite, others say these were individual events tho close in time. Anyway, it was certainly high end VEI5-low end VEI6. Also, while Hekla didnt do VEI6s, it certainly came fairly close to it.

      • I couldnt find any non-paywalled articles even mentioning it… But the little info I could find and have heard before is that the volume is very unlikely to be more than a mid 5, though bigger than any of the historical VEI 5s and probably much more intense as is typical of large rhyolitic eruptions.

        I can recall reading somewhere that at least one of Heklas prehistoric eruptions was a firm VEI 6, I dont remember which though.

        I guess the problem with a lot of the high VEI eruptions in Iceland is they happen through a glacier, so leave no simple deposit. Basicallly all of the huge ash deposits would have been taken out to sea, and maybe even distributed widely on sea ice. Hekla is an exception with little ice interaction, and has well studied and understood statigraphy.

        • I also wonder why Öraefajökull in the eruption lists only did eruptions since Viking Age but none before. If the volcano did two major eruptions (one VEI6) within 1000 years, it looks credible that there happened more eruptions during last 10,000 years.

          I can’t imagine that the “Öræfi volcanic belt” stayed silent for 10,000 years. There must have been eruptions. Maybe the 1362 eruption covered a lot of the previous deposits and Grimsvötn/Askja/Bardarbunga added more tephra layers, so that it’s difficult to determine older volcanic deposits. Esjufjöll has a unknown past as well with the questioned eruption 1927 and missing evidences for previous activity. Most of the volcano is buried below glaciers.

          • Ive heard in one of valentin troll’s videos that there is serious difficulty in identifying tephras from systems below vatnajökull etc. As chad said, the glaciers and ocean dont make things any easier so id take any lists with a big grain of salt.

        • It is very hard to get a correct volume for an eruption that drops most of the tephra in the sea.

          • Sometimes it helps it they find deposits of Icelandic Tephra in Swedish lakes, f.e. Vänern. The largest tephra eruptions of Iceland let ash fall in parts of Europe. Then they can find tephra layers between normal mud sediment layers and can get a C14 dating.
            Here is an example with three rhyolite Icelandic eruptions that left tephra deposits in Sweden: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379102000367

          • That helps, but the amount in distant locations depends on the wind. You can’t just equate 1 mm in Sweden with so many km3 in Iceland.

  20. Svartsengi has still scheduled a possible eruption for autumn https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/uplift-continues-beneath-svartsengi
    “If the rate of magma accumulation remains unchanged, it is expected that the probability of a magma intrusion or eruption will increase as autumn approaches.” “Seismic activity … has slightly increased in recent weeks.”

    So after the tiny 1st of April eruption the chance for a real eruption 2025 in Iceland remains. The next eruption is the 9th eruption. With it Svartsengi would reach to Krafla’s number of 9 eruptions.

    • we would also beat krafla in terms of lava volume, though in terms of total magma moved we are still far behind.

      • Compared to Krafla the 9 episodes (if the 9th happens in fall/December 2025) of Svartsengi happened within two years. That’s much shorter, it’s more like Laki’s episodes. Yes, Laki was an episodicale eruption with ten episodes: “ten eruptive episodes during the eight months of activity on the Laki fissures” https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00624353
        A visit to Laki: https://www.vatnajokulsthjodgardur.is/svaedi/lakagigar/l1-laki
        The episodical behaviour of Laki means a difference to Bardarbunga’s Holohraun eruption that was more continuous and was fed by Bardarbunga’s central volcano. Laki was a rifting eruption like present Svartsengi. As far I know the Laki eruptions ended slowly with relatively weak episodes during the last months. Maybe this is a likely “end game” scenario for the ongoing Svartsengi Fires.

        • As far as i know both of the past cycles in svartsengi/eldvörp produced at least one eruption with ~0.3km³ (if these were indeed individual eruptions). I kinda expect the current cycle to also produce one of those. As u said there are some very interesting differences between krafla and current svarts. The later krafla eruptions saw a major percentage of their magma supply come from a deeper storage zone, not the shallow magma chamber (as is seen in differing lava composition based on distance from the caldera). Similarily, Laki was fed by a deeper storage zone, not by a dike intrusion from grimsvötn’s chamber which erupted during the same time (tho ofc grimsvötns chamber also received its magma from the same source). This is how Laki differs from 2014 bardarbunga, and it also explains why the first laki episode started furthest away from vatnajökull. Current svarts to me feels like a weird mixture of barda and krafla.

          • I’m not sure whether they during the Medieval Age summed up an episodical eruption like ours as 1. The reports about Reykjanes’ eruptions during that time don’t mention episodic eruptions, but big single ones. I don’t know whether they acutally were single eruptions or each a series of episodes.

            There is the possibility that after the last episode of our eruptions will follow some years of quiet, and then a major single eruption with the 0.3km³. Krafla showed that sometimes the big things happen in the end. Krafla was a Fires on a central volcano. It’s possible that Svartsengi has a part on the fissure system that acts during the Fires like a temporary central volcano.

            Laki appears indeed like a seperated volcano from Grimsvötn. Grimsvötn is more a hot spot volcano, while Laki is the rift volcano. Bardarbunga combines to be both a hot spot and rift zone volcano.

    • Krafla’s Fires 1975-84 happened predominantly in the Caldera, as far as I understand. Concerning this they had more with Grimsvötn’s “Fires” 1996-2011 and Askja’s Fires during the 1920s in common.

  22. From IMO: “Warning: There are indication that magma has started moving underneath Svartsengi and an eruption is likely to occur within an hour or so.”

  23. Updated at 2:11

    According to seismic activity and GPS measurements showing deformation in the Sundhnúk crater series, the magma chamber that is forming is expanding more to the south than to the north.


    • And the map. As of 5:10, at least according to them, the length of the fissures are about 700 meters long, although likely a little longer now.

      • Near the eruption in August last year, and correctly predicted it is north of the Sundhnjukagigaroð after how much rifting went on that way a few months back. Grindavik might well have passed the worst risk.

        Only problem is that this eruption is less intense than a lot of the others before, but with just as much magma behind it. So the eruption rate could stay relatively high for a long time and that brings a real risk of it cutting off Keflavik and entering the ocean. Although the reports are that more of the lava is going east towards Fagradalsfjall.

        Its a shame there isnt a cam looking north from Fagradalsfjall really, it would have a perfect view. The fissure system is still growing yet.

        • Is the intensity of the eruption comparable to Fagradalsfjall’s 2022 and 2023 eruptions? Maybe Svartsengi aligns towards Fagradalsfjall’s style.

          Interesting is the north migration of the episode. This repeats the north migration of FI to FIII. While FI erupted until the exit of Meradalir, the last FIII eruption was close to Keilir. We can draw a nice parallelogram of the Svartsengi and Fagradalsfjall’s fissures and the West-East lines that run parallel to the MAR. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallelogram

          • No its much higher, 700+ m3/s, about 10x more than Fagradalsfjall ever got. Its only slow compared to the 2000 m3/s of the most powerful eruptions last year.

      • well, that was a bit of a surprise. IMO was correct in its prediction, apart from the timing. The location looks a safe one, and I would guess this could be a brief event – but wait and see. Although the seeing is a bit hampered by the thick fog

        • It was a conditional prediction for the case that “the rate of magma accumulation remains unchanged”. Obviously this rate of magma accumulation changed suddenly and enforced the eruption. Did the suddenly increasing injection of magma happen at shallow or greater depths?

          • I have been skeptical about the “autumn” part of the prediction. The Svartsengi GPS station (SENG), and with it also HS02, SKSH and NBIO (all four above or around the magma chamber feeding the eruptions), showed uplift had reached well above the other upper limits where an eruption was triggered. Although the model may have served well in the past, I don’t think such reliance should’ve been put on it as to make it a leading chart for eruption prediction; at least not without also considering the GPS stations.

            SENG (substitute “SENG” with the other GPS stations to view the other stations’ graphs):

        • On the contrary, it is twice as long now as it was at the start, 2 km long and maybe longer now, it is extending northwards yet the intensity seems to be unchanged, so the eruption rate presumably is also increasing although it probably wont get much over 1000 m3/s.

          https://livefromiceland.is/webcams/vogastapi/

          The weather is too dense to see the lava, but the rising plumes are faintly visible and some of them are already left of the webcam view.

        • Hello Albert, while hoping that you are spending some relaxed time with family on vacation I would just like to ask you whether you think the data in this short film are more or less correct. If yes very interesting:

      • Roughly at may 2024 lvl if this is correct. It will be interesting to see how the final volume of this event compares to the others. We are currently erupting around 700m³/s according to Benedikt Ofeigsson, who also confirmed that August reached a peak of 3000m³/s.

    • “Updated at 12:00

      The latest observations show that the eruption is no longer confined to a single fissure. The larger fissure at the Sundhnúkagígaróðin is estimated to be about 2.4 km long. A smaller fissure has also opened west of Fagradalsfjall and was estimated to be about 500 meters long in a reconnaissance flight by the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Coast Guard.”

      That means the eruption might be larger than it is seen…

  26. Kilauea probably only a day or two away from E29, the vent has started glowing bright again and tilt is getting close to fully recovering E28.

    • The night livestream show that the most glowing spot has moved towards the top of the bulge thad slid down after episode 28: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG5zz9Sjw3E
      It’s an open question whether this spot will become the new vent of the cone or whether the next episode will use the old, lower crater. I also imagine that the landslide made the conduit of the cone more narrow. So E29 will have it more harder to get lava out. Maybe it will start with a clearing tephra explosion.

      2008-2018 the lava lake occasionally did explosive eruptions, when rockfall entered the lava lake. This may repeat on larger scale, if a landslide like this meets the violent, energetic magma of episode 29. Compared to the 2025 magma, the 2008-2018 eruption was a lame duck. Maybe some of the Keanakoki tephra deposits happened by effects like we observe now.

      • Maybe, although I thought the higher up glowing spot is just the hot interior of the cone but we will see soon. HVO noted no gas pistoning has been observed so it might start pretty suddenly compared to other episodes.

        I think too, if the vent is narrower but still open it is more likely to result in taller fountains than anything explosive. If the vent was completely filled in then there could be sudden vulcanian eruptions but it isnt blocked like that. The south vent is though, assuming it is alive still.

    • And from the dashcam view, I can see the fountains already.

        • Yes its well over 2 km long, 2.5 on reports, and theres another fissure somewhere further south along the rift too though I havent seen it located. Just ‘directly west of Fagradalsfjall’ which is just in the main Sundhnjukur area. Presumably that part us pretty small though, its looking like another eruption like the one last August in the same spot.

          Also looks like it is likely this area will be the new focus, further north goes under Þrainnskjoldur which is elevated, but the rift isnt as wide southwards. Vogar might be in trouble if that supposed 0.3 km3 eruption happens otherwise it should be fine.

          • i actually thought the new 500m fissure is even further north, isak showed a little fissure that was quite a distance from the main line it looked like

          • That makes sense too except then it isnt west of Fagradalsfjall. It looks like it might have been short lived

    • Wow the lava is fluid! looks like halemaumau lava ultra ultra ultra ultra fluid now when the fountains got denser and lower with less spatter cooling

    • I hopes to move to Iceland before 40 I woud really want to live there

    • It shows a beautiful curtain of fires. Longer than any of the recent Kilauea and Fagradalsfjall fissures. They resemble more Mauna Loa’s long fissure eruptions that run through the whole summit caldera.

      So why was Fagradalsfjall different to Svartsengi? The eruptions lasted longer, but usually had shorter fissures in the beginning and used for a longer time a permanent cone.

      Here we see the main cone of Litl-Hrutur eruption 2023:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZCgZWPP9Fc

      Piton de la Fournaise also prefers to do shorter fissures and then erupt on a permanent cone:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAJO6YjMfYA
      The hot spot volcanoes can be classified into two classed of I Curtain of Fires volcanoes and II Satellite Cone volcanoes.

      • The main difference between svarts and fagra is the fact that fagras dike extends from very deep, with very low inflow rate while svarts dike gets a flood from the shallow sill system resulting in a rapidly growing fissure. The highest inflow into the dike at fagra was ~50m³/s way before it came close to the surface; svarts seems to reach anywhere between 500 and 7000m³/s

        • Yes, I remember the explanations about the deep source of Fagradalsfjall and a relatively shallow reservoir of Svartsengi.

          There was once a sketch that showed that both Svartsengi’s and Fagradalsfjall’s magma came up below Fagradalsfjall, but that a part is diverted at medium deep levels towards Svartsengi. As far as I know, also the chemistry shows that both systems have the same source (but Fagra more primitive, and Svartsengi more normal basalt).

  31. Isaac’s Iceland live-stream. oh my goodness ! ! Fire and water? The power!

  32. The growing lava field has kissed the foot of Fagradalsfjall. The lava is only 2km away from Geldingadalir’s lava. It’s a 20min hiking walk:

    The new lava field grew to 3.2 km² at 12 o’clock Icelandic time. Bushfires have become an additional problem.

  34. Making a wild guess here – is it possible that lava that entered the upper system of chasms in an earlier eruption is bein pushed out, and that the lava chamber below has not found a way up yet?

  36. Do you get a free drop if you land in flowing lava?

    Golf tournament in Grindavík postponed (RÚV, 16 Jul)

    The weather changes quickly, and nature rarely follows human plans. This is also the case for the Grindavík Golf Club.

    The tournament was scheduled to begin today, but due to the evacuation, the event has been cancelled. The club announced on Facebook that the start of the tournament has been postponed until further notice.

    I realise the eruption is a long way north of the Grindavík Golf Club, but being gassed with SO2 wouldn’t be good either.

  37. Regards Katla and inflation – do we have decent resolution on the shape of the magma chamber ?
    I have a thought that may or may not be correct – which is probably one for the experts 🙂

    If the main shallow magma body is mostly sills then adding magma would obviously fatten them, giving uplift. But I suspect that if the magma body is mostly dikes – then influx of magma would expand the horizontally rather than giving uplift (obviously some uplift as there would be some sill type structures connecting the dikes).

    Could that account in any way to the lack of significant uplift at Kalta ?

  38. There has been 20cm of subsidence, I cant recall what it was back in April but the amount is definitely less, although its still going down. If the eruption stops soon it might not be a long time to the next, very likely before the end of the year. If it keeps going then all bets are off, its not erupting fast but its also not that slow either, its definitely capable of reaching the ocean if a tube forms though that would be a slow process.

    The way the eruption started off slower might be a sign of a change in style, or the north rift has to fill up and the next eruption or the one after that could be a curtain of fire flooding northwards…

    • The intrusion in April was more voluminous than the current eruption. Deflation hasn’t been very much now. Maybe we enter a phase with relatively frequent but small eruptions like now (1-2 days). If this is true, they we still may get the predicted autumn eruption.
      https://brunnur.vedur.is/gps/reykjanes.html
      This time also Keilir station has moved: 1cm south, 1cm east and 1cm down. The present sill is more close to Fagradalsfjall, and eruptions are therefore more likely to be visible in Fagradalsfjall’s GPS stations.
      Krysuvik station KRIV moved 1cm east and 2cm down. Previous episodes weren’t visible in Krysuvik. The April intrusion and graben formation changed this. It was accompanied by a significant south and east movement of Krysuvik.
      This indicates that Fagradalsfjall and Krysuvik are a bit involved in the activity of Svartsengi since April. We don’t know what this will mean for future development. But there remains the possibility that volcanic activity returns to Fagradalsfjall or that Krysuvik awakes.

    • Subsidence in april was roughly 30cm, however the stations also got uplifted by the resulting graben, so the real deflation is more than whats visible on gps. I feel like the system might need some time before we see the really intense opening phases again, the neat infrastructure that allowed it to initiate easily in the same spot on the surface over and over again probably got all jumbled up in april. Regarding the future of this eruption, my guess is an almost exact repeat of the August 24 eruption, with some decent fountaining for another week.

  39. Interesting earthquake in Hawaii, it is in tbe same place as the Pahala quakes butat a shallow depth of only a couple km, right down at the end of Kilaueas SWRZ. They also dont look like normal quakes but like tremors although nothing has happened since or elsewhere.



    E29 is due to start probably tomorrow, although it has not shown any precursors so could suddenly go up at some point in the next 3 days. Smaller vent opening also likely means a taller fountain at the start… 🙂

    • The earthquakes were up to 5km below sea level. Can there be a subordinated inflow of magma from the magma chamber that feeds the summit eruption? The quakes are relatively close to the 1790-1823 SWRZ eruptions.

      • It would be pretty unprecedented if there is magma here without the rest of the SWRZ being obviously active.

        If it wasnt for the strange seismometer signal it would be pretty easy to explain it being south flank movement, there is a fault under that spot that is either parallel vertically with another one in the Pahala swarm, or actually goes that deep, and it goes right to the surface too. But the seismometer signal looks like fluid, its not a sudden crack but more slow.

        Obviously, it isnt a major change but it could give a hint of how that might happen

          • The dikes probably arent viable, tbe roft they intruded into possibly is but there isnt any particularly high pressure. The GPS at OUTL and AHUP have subsided slightly sincethe eruption started, although also moved away from tbe caldera so it isnt really evidence of deflation exactly. However, OUTL is actually still at about the same elevation as it was when the eruption last June happened, and well above last January, so a sudden intrusion from there isnt impossible in the near future as the summit vent gets higher and more pressure is needed.

            Eruptions at tge Kamakaia Hills probably start close to where the hills themselves are though, on a separate fissure swarm. Further southwest is the small Black Cone, age uncertain but very likely 19th century, it is probably the most distant of the Kamakaia vents from the caldera. It formed along a small section of a preexisting fissure, and probably at about the same time as Kamakaia Uka cone, which erupted most likely in in the 1820s, within a couple years of 1823 as it was still fumarolic when observed that year.

            Its pretty likely actually that all of the early 19th century SWRZ activity was within 10 years of 1823, as the 1790 caldera needed to fill up to at least 850 meters elevation to produce the vents there, most of which are not deep sourced but caldera lava that flowed into the shallow SWRZ and out the other end of the cracks. Its debatable really if this even counts as a true vent, it could easily be called rootless. 1919 was the same, and on the same crack. In comparison Kamakaia, and the 2024 and 1974 eruptions, were both deep sourced from the SWRZ connector.

            One kep detail though, if an eruption was to break out lower on the SWRZ, it would probably be much more powerful than most stuff visible there now. The summit vent is probably at least 250 meters higher up than the Kamakaia Hills area, and also shows that hot gas rich magma is fed in high supply. A lower SWRZ eruption migbt start off with strombolian andesite eruption but would quickly become a fast basalt lava flood, probably alot like in Iceland last night.

            All of this is way less likely than the summit just overflowing though, in my opinion.

          • 1790 the collapse of the caldera was probably even deeper than 2018. Do collapses like this destroy the shallow Halema’uma’u magma chamber at 1km depth? If the caldera collapses by 600m as it happened sometimes, this is likely the consequence of an emptied magma chamber (that 2018 fed Leilani Estates eruption and probably 1790 an ERZ eruption).

            Caldera filling after a collapse of the H chamber probably only happens from the more deeper SC chamber. The deep source may be a reason why the magma is less degassed than magma from the H chamber. Caldera filling by SC is perhaps like we witness 2025 with descrete spectacular episodic lava fountains and tephra. Added to this they can create possible explosive eruptions, if the vent is blocked.

            This Volcano Watch articles shows that the SC chamber is linked to the seismic SWRZ, while Halema’uma’u is more related to the volcanic SWRZ. https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/news/volcano-watch-where-magma-stored-kilauea
            Here Hector wrote about the triple SWRZ, including the seismic zone: https://www.volcanocafe.org/kilaueas-triple-swrz/
            Did the 2024 SWRZ intrusion and eruption happen in the seismic SWRZ? As long as the SC chamber dominates Kilauea’s eruptions, it looks likely that a possible SWRZ eruption fed by SC happens on the seismic SWRZ.

          • USGS doesnt even know how much of the 2018 magma chamber survived the collapse, although it is definitely something. It is likely the 1790 collspse was deeper, but whether it actually ended up as a physically deeper hole is unclear as it could have filled in with gravel and ended up at a similar point to in 2020.

            No collapse of normal scale is likely to do much to the south caldera chamber, 2018 was fed from it and hadlittle affect, and that might be the biggest an eruption like that can be on land from Kilauea. If the rift zone connectors are included then tbe south caldera chamber is enormous and probably many tens of km3, it would take a Laki sized eruption to empty it. The bottom of it is probably as deep as the base of the volcano and maybe even the base of the island, it is probably just as big as the magma chambers of tbe Icelandic calderas just deeper and less wide.

            ‘Volcanic’ and ‘sesmic’ SWRZ are a bit outdated. The volcanic SWRZ is the cracks extending from tbe caldera and there is no shallow magma in it, at least not in the modern setup. The seismic SWRZ is the same thing as the SWRZ connector, and t. The 1974, 1981 and both 2024 intrusions were all in almost the same place in the Pu’u Koa’e fissure swarm. Kamakaia Hills is separated a bit.

    • All of my comment still generally applies, but the tilt signal and seismometer are from a 7.3 quake in Alaska that I didnt know about until now, although I did wonder it it was a distant quake. The quakes at the end of the SWRZ are coincidental it seems

    • Yes, as supply to the vents dwindles, water can make its way in causing the behaviour u observed

  42. https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-solid-state-battery-breakthrough

    So totally non-flammable and very low resistance batteries can be made pretty easily,apparently. These are standard chemistry with a fluoropolymer, and ionjc liquid, nothing exotic. They arent true solid state though, infused plastic more like, but if the benefits are the same its still a big step.

    400 wh/kg, in a non flammable battery, it wouldnt neeed nearly as much cooling or possibly even only air cooling which is passive. In a perfect world, that means an almost 0 maintenence and nearly indestructable car that costs less than $40/1000km. So of course, it will definitely not be made that way in real life 🙂

  43. Kilauea might be changing behavior. HVO did adjust the tilt angle slightly but only by 20 degrees, 320 to 300. So it should be basically the same scale. Tilt at both SDH and UWD has exceeded E28 values, but yet there is no sign of E29 other than weak incandescence. The vent is still open and degassing though.

    It is possible that E29 will be much more powerful than even the last month of 300+ meter fountains. Intervals could get longer too, along with bigger volume of lava. This is the first time I can remember the tiltmeter clearing the cutoff of the last episode without any sign of the next one.

    It is also possible we are days away from a 600 meter monster fountain… 🙂

    • Maybe it’s because of the “lava glaciers” that is basically burying the open vent, blocking it and acting like a sort of plug that, under normal circumstances, the vent would’ve erupted by now if it hadn’t. This could mean a lot of gas being trapped under there, therefore a delay of an eruption, increasing volume and pressure. Ep. 29 might be exceptional here and might not be the last time something like this happens.

      • V3 shows strong glow on the peak of the lava-tephra bulge:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqmpkUdMtyA

        We can’t see if there is some up and down of magma inside the conduit, because the old crater is blocked. Maybe the “gas pistoning” phase before the main lava fountain phase is already happening, but invisible.

    • The massive landslide has changed the physics of the eruption. We’re going to see soon how the rising magma will react to the changed conduit.

      Until now the phase of “gas pistoning” or “attempted eruptions” has been missed. Either it still comes, or the next episode begins suddenly with a great lava fountain. But it’ll have to clear the throat one or other way. The more the conduit is blocked, the more explosive the beginning will be.

    • The webcams show that the glowing spot has moved up to the peak of the bulge:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqmpkUdMtyA

      Somehow the light must pass through this mass of a landslide. If this is possible, then it is the likely exit for rising magma. Maybe the higher altitude of the new vent means, that episode 29 needs higher inflation to start the show.

      As we know from December 2024 the source of the eruption is below the vertical rim of the caldera. This position may support eruptions at an increasing peak.

      A higher peak/crater for the coming episode(s) mean that the lava fountain will have greater advantage to cover areas beyond the area until now. Maybe we’ll see the first lava flows outside the caldera since 1982, if large masses of molten lava accumulate there by the force of tall lava fountains.

      • I’m looking at the webcam now that dawn has arrived. I assume that’s the wind that is causing the camera to bump about, and not seismic tremors? It’s on a long zoom

        • I’d assume that it has to be >M3 quakes to notice them on the webcam. HVO’s map shows no earthquakes in the summit region. The summit appears aseismic now. But inflation has exceeded episodes 27 and 28:


          V1 cam shows a dense gas plume rising from the bulge. There was the most intense glow during the night:

          • The vent is still the strongest gas source, and glows a bit. The other glowing spot could be the south vent elevated, but could also be the glowing interior of the cone exposed, not a vent. Its still most likely E29 will be in the usual location until we see lava erupting elsewhere.

            That being said if it is this time next week and we are waiting still, then Pele might have something bigger planned. Maybe reopening the curtain if fire and splitting the cone. Or going over 500 meters. A rift eruption now would have advanced warning but not so with a summit eruption.

        • Its on the top of a cliff in an exposed area, so yea it is normal to be shaky, although if it is bad it might need readjustment or anchoring.

          Kilaueas summit has been very still since the eruption began, there are some quakes but you woukd need to be in the caldera to have a chance. Maybe if you layed down ear to the ground on bedrock you might hear something. But there isnt enough pressure in the magma chamber right now to break rock, it erupts before that. The ERZ and SWRZ connectors are both part of the magma chamber too so respond the same way, though apparently not always together.

  44. Ruv’s south cam shows fountains and what seems to be an open flow channel that goes all the way out of frame right now, output rate therefore still seems fairly high

  46. https://www.vedur.is/gogn/myndir/webcam/2025/07/18/webcam_fagridalur-W.html#

    I finally found it, the link to the still webcam in Fagridalur in the north part of Fagradalsfjall. It would have been great to have this a few days ago… 🙂

    The eruption is ongoing but there is probably only going to be a single vent soon and no telling how long it will last after that. Its not unlikely the eruption could last for a long time at a low rate though, building a cone to add to the collection. Seems unlikely the fires are about to end though, theres still more eruptions, inflation has already resumed slowly even with the eruption ongoing. Magma supply is still very robust.

      • Thabks 🙂

        Wow, it opened very quickly, maybe not as fast as some other fissures but much faster than it looked from other angles. From start to off screen in an hour.

      • Interesting that there are twin cones just like Fagradalsfjall did sometimes and Kilauea 2025 sometimes. As long as both are active, it seems that the eruption can still last some time. Does the eruption first has to concentrate on a monopoly vent before it ends?

        I didn’t expect the eruption to last so long, it looked relatively weak late on first day.

    • Still heavy gas pollution:

      The vog resembles on small scale the great vog of Laki that drifted through Europe and preceded the cold years (and bad harvests) that followed after Laki.

      • Seems like main activity is happening on 4 healthy vents within a spatter rampart, i can also see another smaller area to the north. From the look of the flow channel it appears to still be tens of m³/s. The webcam view rly shows nothing at all compared to this 😮

  47. Kilauea probably about to do E29 before dawn, the north vent is glowing very bright now unlike earlier nights, and the south vent might be reopening too higher up

    • V1 cam zoomed closer to the vent, so it looks different to yesterday. V3 cam still shows both the old vent and the new vent on the bulge:

  48. Apparantly Erta Ale rifted a little bit to the south of the southern caldera a few days ago (found out looking at imagery on copernicus hub), though it seems like the fissure is inactive now


    • View of north vent on the 17th of July. Seems the plug initially covered the vent, but the vent appearently cleared.

      • Still no lava show, only a glowing crater and a side vent above it. Inflation has exceeded previous values. It looks like more pressure is needed to initiate an eruption. Episode 29 can become more violent than its predecessors.
        Usually a quiet lava effusion precedes the onset of the lava fountains. Liquid degassed magma sits above gasrich magma that drives the episodes.

    • Around 3:00 Icelandic Time was a 3.5 earthquake at Krysuvik (5km deep) between Fagradalsfjall and Kleifarvatnet. Perhaps an attempt to activate the magma paths from the deep Fagradalsfjall source towards Krysuvik?

      • that would be deeper, no? this looks like a normal main shock-after shock sequence to me

    • Yes I noticed too, and it looks about the same rate as before and the eruption isnt finished yet. That probably kills any idea of this being the last eruption, the April intrusion basically started a whole new rift that needs filling and spawns new fissures. The terrain that way is a bit higher up so may confine most eruptions to the current area but the furthest end of the April dike is almost at the highway so its not impossible eruptions happen even that far north.

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