Run volcano, run

Volcanoes make for good sport. Golf comes to mind as an example: volcanoes can provide a great opportunity to improve performance. The summit crater of a volcano is conveniently large, greatly increasing the chance of a hole-in-one. It would look even better if the impact of the ball triggers an eruption, celebrating the win with a rising cloud and volcanic lightning. Volcano golf adds excitement to the tricky process of hitting a small ball with a big stick.

Even more exciting sports can be envisaged. The rule of thumb is, if you have thought about it, someone has probably tried it. Some sports are out of the running, however. The UK government in particular does not recognize cerebral activity as sport. Even though sport is defined as physical activity with a competitive element, the brain is not included as a physical entity in its definitions – meaning, no access to funding. (That went to extreme when a major school chess competition was forced into bankruptcy by the tax office. Perhaps out of embarrassment about this, after this the current UK government did fund the chess federation to promote chess in disadvantaged schools. Chess is cheap, after all.) So volcano-chess is out, sadly. (I was envisaging a speed-chess tournament in the caldera of Kilauea, timed for games to be finished just-in-time before the start of the next eruption.)

How about surfing? Not on liquid lava – that would not work. But there is in fact a sport for this, although it is actually called volcano boarding rather than surfing. The top location for the sport is on the slopes of Cerro Negro in Nicaragua (not the volcano in Colombia of the same name that Tallis warns us about). It involves sliding down the steep slope on a board made of plywood and metal, at speeds of 50 km/h or more – wearing lots of protective gear. To get to the start requires a one-hour drive and a one-hour climb, before sitting down on the board for a 5-minute adrenaline-filled surf down the mountain. A certain disregard of personal safety is needed, in part because Cerro Negro does erupt on occasion – it is among the most frequently erupting volcanoes in central America and the surfing is done on the ejecta of the 1999 eruption. (And if you think that chess would be a safer sport, you do not know what chess players are thinking about when staring at the board.)

Volcano skydiving, anyone? There is a sport for this. It involves ’wingsuiting’: this is variant of skydiving involving a winged suit which behaves more like an out-of-control airplane (a Boeing Max, possibly). (And whoever dreamed up that name missed an opportunity). It is dangerous enough at the best of time, but doing it above an active volcano takes it to extremes. So, of course, volcano wingsuiting has been done.

One person is known for wingsuiting into a volcano. That was done at Mutnovsky in Kamchatka. But as olympic sport, it has not caught on.

Cycling is an activity that can easily be combined with a volcano. Many volcanoes have good roads going up them (assuming the volcano does not erupt) and can be climbed on a bicycle. And if it gets too much, the way down is easy – as long as the brakes work. One of the biggest volcano cycle climbs is up Haleakala. (Not the biggest – there are several higher ones in the world.) But this is too easy for some.

The Rift

How about an off-road cycling challenge covering 200 km on lava and gravel, fording rivers and climbing hills? This is, of course, Iceland. It is called The Rift. The cycle route goes from the coast into highlands and back, circumnavigating the most unpredictable of volcanoes, Hekla – at least climbing it is, advisably, not part of the challenge. The race is on in July – but if you want to take part you are too late. It has sold out.


The main volcanic sport (apart from eruption chasing) is running. (Not running away from an eruption, although the sport provides good training for that, might it become a necessity.) It involves running up and down the edifice of a volcano – a certain degree of fitness is required, as is a willingness to sacrifice future use of knees. These runs are proper events, with some competitors racing against each other and others just trying to make the finish.

A famous example of volcano running was the Kilauea Volcano Wilderness Run, a full marathon that existed for 3 decades up to 2008 and typically attracted some 200 runners. The run started at the Kilauea caldera, followed the poorly marked Ka’u desert trail (competitors did get lost on occasion) and the Mauna Iki trail for 7 miles across the lava fields, before following the Pali road and the unpaved Escape Road (don’t ask) through the rain forest, back up to the caldera. The last half was all uphill. It was also possible to do a shorter 10-mile run around the caldera, on a route that followed the crater rim drive, the crater rim trail and Byron ledge – this shorter event was rather more popular and attracted up to 1000 people.

The last time this race was held was a few months after the opening of the new vent at Halemaumau in 2008, which required a rerouting to avoid the hazard of the sulfur gas emissions. It probably got too much for the organizers – the race ended after 2008 and was replaced by a far less volcanic half marathon in Volcano Village.

There are other runs, both marathons and ultramarathons, around volcanoes. There is one at Vesuvius, one at Pacaya (involving a turn-around at the top), one at Ruapehu (not running in 2024), and one at Villarica which promises a real lava lake. They have in common that they are gruelling, a volcanic punishment on the body, not for the faint-hearted and certainly not for the underprepared!

Of course Iceland could not possibly stay behind. There is an event in Iceland this August, involving a marathon and several shorter distances around Hverfjall crater. The advert reassuringly states that it is located far from the on-going activity at Reykjanes and that Hverfjall is safely extinct – while at the same time calling it ‘a hot bed of geothermal activity with geysers, hot springs, and lava rock!’. Hverfall is a wonderful tephra cone, 400 meter high with a large crater on top, a kilometer across. It is situated next to Myvatn, in the north of Iceland. The route includes circling the rim.

Or you may prefer running in the blast zone of St Helens. The blurb says that “with its sapphire lakes, rugged, toothy peaks and wildflower-blanketed slopes, the Mt. Margaret Backcountry on the northern blast zone side of the Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument provides an unforgettably unique, remote and beautiful trail race experience. The 50K and 20 miler offer big climbs, sweeping descents and stunning ridgeline views of the surrounding Cascade Volcanoes … High mountain lakes, rushing creeks and abundant wildlife dot the landscape, including resident mountain goats, elk, deer, bear, cougar, soaring raptors and many more.” I guess the bear and cougar will encourage fast running! As a final warning, “only attempt this race if you’re in top fitness, self-reliant and prepared for the challenge… this course humbles everyone who attempts it.”

For the extreme runner, there are many volcanic choices.

But there is one run to rule them all. It is an event with an evocative name.


La Palma, one of the Canary Islands, was known for decades as volcanically safe. Yes, there had been an eruption 50 years ago at the southern tip of the island, but clearly nothing had happened since so that was okay. Until in September 2021, it happened again, with a destructive eruption when lava ran from the flanks of Cumbre Vieja to the sea, causing destruction in the villages in between. The eruption lasted for almost three months.

The island has a triangular shape. The wider, northern area is dominated by the extinct shield volcano Taburiente, with a deep rift on one side which is called the Caldera de Taburiente – but this isn’t a caldera, it is a flank collapse. The south side of this ‘caldera’ contains the remains of another shield volcano, Bejenado, much smaller and also extinct. From Taburiente towards the south, a ridge runs along the spine of the island. It is called Cumbre Nueva and Cumbre Vieja, where the two parts are separated by a small gap. They formed when, over time, the activity migrated southward. The ridge looks a bit like a fissure which got infected – especially the southern parts are badly pockmarked, looking like a bad case of the measles.

Cumbre Nueva, in spite of the name, is extinct. Cumbre Vieja is the only active volcano on La Palma. Eruptions happen every few decades. They occur mainly on the ridge, but can also happen on the flanks as happened in 2021. The eruptions tend to build up a cone: Cumbre Vieja is littered with them. The 2021 eruption added a new one to the already extensive collection. There are so many that the volcano has a hard time finding room for them all. Often, a new eruption accidentally coincides with an old cone, pretending to be an old cone which has re-activated while in fact it is the young taking the place of the old.

Left: Cumbre Vieja (below) and Cumbre Nueva (above) as seen from the International Space Station in 2008, showing the plethora of cones on the former. Right: A June 2024 Sentinel image of La Palma, showing the impact of the 2021 eruption

The volcanic history is complicated and involves five different volcanoes, as described in a previous post.

The running race attacks the La Palma volcanoes head-on. No skirting around the edges here. It starts in darkness, at 6am and appropriately at a lighthouse. This is Faro de Fuencaliente, near the southernmost point of the island.

After 7 km and almost a kilometer of ascent (o, those legs) it reaches the town of Los Canarios. From here it continues the relentless climb, reaching the summit of Las Deseades at 17 km and 1800 meters altitude. Now the route descends 400 meters to El Reventon (if the full race is a bit much, you can also start just before this point at El Pilar and only do the marathon), before climbing up to the Pico de la Cruz (2300 meters) and the observatory at the Roque de los Muchachos (2400 meters) where the race comes past the Isaac Newton Telescope. You need to get to the observatory before 5pm or you will be taken off the course and probably get a talking-to about how this race is not for the poorly-trained.

Now the route turns to the southwest. A steep descent to sea level follows (the trekking poles the runners carry may be very useful here, in order to avoid accidents) at the Puerto de Tazacorte (o, those knees), and finally there is a 5 km stretch back in-land to the finish line at Los Llanos de Aridane, 340 meters high where crowds are waiting for the exhausted athletes. Arrive after 10pm and all will have been for naught as the race has closed. The advertisement talks about the incredible atmosphere at the finish line – which is true, this race is a national monument in La Palma. But after having been into the thin, cold air at the summit of Taburiente, any atmosphere will be welcome.

Is this the hardest ultra-marathon in the world? By the time they reach the finish line, the runners will have covered 74 km, have ascended 4.3 km and descended 4.0 km! (Just to rub it in, the finish line is 300 meters higher than the start.) The fastest runners reach an average speed of more than 10 km/hr.

What is there to see on-route? It is a volcanic landscape, getting older and older as the runners advance. One runner describes the scenery:

The first part covers a very volcanic terrain (beware of the ashes, it messes up the eyes). You then travel nearly 2000 meters of positive elevation differences in less than 20km. The second part is rather woody and wild. The terrain is more varied. It is an alternation of ascents and descents. Then begins the third part of this Transvulcania ultra marathon where the scenery is typical medium and high mountain of the French Alps… with a rather rocky terrain. After almost 50 long kilometers of continuous climb, I didn’t know the pain that awaited me: 2500 meters of negative elevation gain over 15 km! The last kilometers are done on concrete. It hits hard and it hurts a lot. Fortunately, at the end of the descent, the magnificent landscapes cheered me up. It was probably one of the most beautiful points of view of the race.

The runners first pass the cone of Teneguia, the location of the 1971 eruption. They won’t see much of it in the darkness, though! One tourist died here in 1971, after entering a closed-off area: the person died of inhaling toxic gas – one danger the runners don’t need to worry about. Next they pass the cone of Volcan de San Antonio, which erupted in 1677. After Los Canarios, the cones come thick and fast on the Ruta de los Volcanes (the Volcano Trail, which can also be taken in a more leisurely tempo, but not on the day of the race), barren ash heaps surrounded by pine forest: Martin de Tigalata (1646), Lavas la Malforada, the twin peaks of Deseada (the highest point of Cumbre Vieja), Hoyo Negro, and many others: there are some 120 recognizable craters along the 19-km long ridge. The Cumbre Vieja rift is a hot bed of volcanic activity, with eruptions occuring along its entire length.

Pico Berigoyo is the last (northernmost) cone on the ridge, before the route descends to El Pilar where Cumbre Vieja ends and the older (confusingly named) Cumbre Nuevo takes over. The visible volcanics ends now as the route continues into the forest. The Cumbre Nueva ridge began to be build about 700,000 years ago, with activity increasing over time. The eruptions ended after a brief phase of high activity, with a dramatic collapse. This collapse formed the Caldera de Taburiente, half a million years ago. By this time the runnners begin to feel as if they have been running for nearly that long, aging at the same rate as the landscape around them.

As the runners climb the old shield of Taburiente, the forest finally peters out and the alpine stretch begins, circling the collapse crater of the Caldera de Taburiente. The shield volcano started growing a million years ago and was active until 400,000 years ago. The rift of Cumbre Nuevo was part of this activity. The collapse of Cumbre Nuevo removed a part of Taburiente as well. The track winds up to the far end of the caldera, where the Roque de los Muchachos observatory is located. The edge of the caldera becomes very steep here, and a turbulent wind may come up from below. Now a steep descent begins towards the western coast. The route down is steep and rocky, but it provides a terrific view of the fertile plains of Los Llanos – if the runners have any energy left to lift the eyes up from the track. In the distance, the frightening lava flows from 2021 become visible. The black beach at the bottom takes its colour from the lava of Cumbre Vieja, taking the runners back to the young volcanics of the start, ages ago. This place feels like it should be the end of the run. But no, the run (or, by now, the crawl) continues for another 5 km through a dry river bed to the town at the bottom of the flank of Cumbre Nuevo, where the cheering crowds are waiting.

Volcanoes make for terrific sport. I am still open to the as-yet non-invented sport of volcano-chess. But clearly there is plenty of excitement around already. For the best few this is as participants of an extreme sport, while for the many others their role is as spectators and cheer leaders. And all the while, the volcano that provided the course looks on, biding its time to once again change the scenery.

Transvulcania is an exceptional event in this field. Is this really the hardest run in the world? It may well be: it is certainly a step up from the Park Run. Is it the most volcanic running experience in the world? I cannot judge – but if not, it must be running it close.

Albert, June 2024

179 thoughts on “Run volcano, run

  1. Thx (the golf photo is insane). Also mesmerizing: The strinking contrast between the beautyful landscapes and the ugly sportsmen.

    • Being in a place like those, whether in a sport or just looking around, is exhilarating. I have had to spend time in deserts for work. You never stop looking at the scenery.

    • Kailua Kona is searingly hot all year around in noon ( at least at sealevel) and quite humid too .. high noon just after lunch yeilds over 30 c in shadow all year around even in deep winter. I found it extremely opressive after lunchtime at new years day. I guess that Big Islands lowlands lee side west are likey the worlds warmest all year around locale at latitude 19 – 20 its certainly quite sultry and gets the classification of a Tropical Moonsoon Climate

      A olympic flame contest will be extraodinary hard in the heat and humidity of Kailua Kona.. but the road is also a few 100 meters up so at a cooler climate elevation and more suitable for sports

      Kona side is souch an incredibley beautyful place! with the crystal clear blue waters and the tropical small town feel and mostly wild nature, a very relaxing and soothing enviroment .. peaceful is an absolute defenition there

      • Kailua Kona Is a tropical semi-arid climate, Köppen climate classification BSh.

  2. You actually DID this, Albert?! Whoof. Runners are definitely a different breed.
    I can’t help wondering if the floors of the outbuildings for the observatory on the left were/ are leveled to compensate for the incline they appear to be sitting on. Thinking of aching thighs, that incline could really do a number on ya by the end of the day. Not to mention the vertigo.

    • No, I am not a long-distance runner. Certainly no marathons! But I do know the observatory well. I have even been locked in at the Isaac Newton Telescope once when the weather was such that venturing outside was too dangerous. Yes, the buildings are carefully made level, in spit of being build on slopes. The telescopes themselves need to be sitting level, otherwise the pointing and tracking have difficulties. The domes might also have problems opening and claoing if they sit on an incline.

    • Neither I am a runner, but I guess it is the declines, i.e., the “negative elevation” that one runner describes in the article, which is worse than the inclines.
      A couple of years ago at Madeira (to which La Palma is often compared to) I walked (just walked!) down this road, from the top to Calheta:,-17.1510474,3a,75y,259.64h,76.67t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sWBOqWdT5O0wzvgPYKkdOuw!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?hl=en&coh=205409&entry=ttu
      and I got my thighs so painful (because I had to walk and also to _brake_ one’s speed at the same time, and the hard asphalt didn’t help), that I didn’t care to walk anywhere for a next few days.

    • The last samples are noisy. Impossible to tell any trend from them. I do think the inflation rate increased a bit after the eruption stopped, but it’s really difficult to tell.

    • I have been watching this, Merlot, there seems to be a resumption of the former inflation rate. See . Previously I had noted only a 63% rate compared to the previous, but was told to not jump to conclusions, but a glance at the GPS readings seems to indicate a resumption of the former inflation rate.

      • It’s a few days old now, but IMO published this beautiful interferogram demonstrating the ongoing inflation in the area:

      • If the current rate is sustained, rather than being a blip, it’s higher than that preceding the last eruption.

  3. Thanks for a lovely article Albert. I must admit, as a passionate runner, I’m very tempted to enter the Icelandic race at Hverfjall. It’s on my bucket list at least, but unfortunately I’m not in shape for a marathon at the moment. Maybe next year if I can find some continuity in my training. You have my word that if (big if) I ever enter the race, I will write a race report as a VC article.

    • By the way, all three distances include the crater rim of Hverfjall, so the good news is that you don’t have to settle for half the distance, but you get to enjoy the full experience and still get to take the route around the rim! Yay!

    • On second thought, you can’t just join the race. International participants have to buy a 6 day guided tour package for 2500€. I’m not going to pay that kind of money to see stuff I’ve already seen before, just to be able to join the race. Bummer…

  4. I remember seeing an old volcano watch on the Kau desert marathon, not the nicest place to run for so long in my opinion, way too much loose sand and gravel and erosion hasnt smoothed anything out. Its old for Kilauea but that lava was still only erupted 600 years ago, late Medieval. The average pub in the UK is probably older than the Kau desert 🙂

    Some of it is less than 1 month old… And Kilauea has started swarming again big time, might get a proper resurface by the end of the week…

    • Really strange behavior at Kilauea this week. The crazy uplift on UWEV has stopped now, and the ERZ connector is quaking like crazy, 300 a day now is well within bounds to intrude. But there is no tilting at all from that direction as would be expected if magma was flowing that way, and the one exception where the ESC tilt jumped shows they are connected.

      SDH is still uplifting too but not at a crazy rate, it has been higher recently. My best guess is that either magma is flowing downrift past SDH or SDH is now sitting right on top of the uplift so it isnt tilted by it. My best guess on why there are so many quakes on the ERZ connector and basically none on the SWRZ connector is that the past 9 months has seen all of the tension be removed, same as why we dont get much precursor activity to eruptions at Sundhnjukur now. Or why Hekla is quiet, there isnt tension on the rocks until magma makes a rush to the surface and it does it fast at all 3.

    • I have got a theory that the reason the ERZ seems to be blocked at the end of the connector is because the south flank of the ERZ and the south flank of the SWRZ are not really aligned, and they clash south of the bend. Its not really a real collision, but there is pressure, and it is notable that the strongest zone of south flank quakes is exactly here. Normally the ERZ wins this, or at least isnt affected, but the SWRZ is better connected with the summit and so strong summit pressure might also be associated with stronger push from the SWRZ too even without magmatic activity in the latter. I think this happened in the 1970s, Mauna Ulu was still open but it sits just about on that bend, the ERZ down from there was dead while intrusions happened multiple times a little uprift of Mauna Ulu, at the summit, and on the SWRZ. The inflation from 1970-1975 was not as intense as now but still very high and when the volcano was at its most full anyway, eventually the only option was to push through the ERZ connector anyway and shove the stuck flank – 1975 quake.

      Its also notable that following large caldera collapses Kilauea erupts first on the SWRZ, in the early 19th century and now in the present day. The ERZ inflation before 2020 is a thing, but it stopped completely when the SWRZ connector first woke up in 2021, and has been dead since.

    • The summit has started deflating at the same time UERZ/Chain of Craters earthquakes skyrocketed. I think a pulse of magma has started moving into the deep rift under the Chain of Craters. The vertical magma body is rapidly dilating and fracturing the rock above. I don’t see clear signs of a dike intrusion, although earthquakes are indeed happening to the sides of the connector, so maybe there are some small dike intrusions in place already. Lately it has become difficult to distinguish dike intrusions from background rift inflation. I think the rules that applied in the past no longer do. I do expect that any time now, the swarming section of the East Rift Zone will snap and produce a sizable dike with maybe a small accompanying eruption.

      Clearly, an eruption or non-eruptive dike intrusion is imminent at this point, maybe today or maybe in a week, and that Kilauea is now aiming for the Chain of Craters area, maybe Keanakakoi, or Aloi, or anywhere in between those two craters.

      • It is a bit of a stretch, but if you trace the fissure swarm of Pu’u Koa’e through the fault zone it does enter the upper ERZ area pretty close to where the strongest quakes are now. The eruptions are fed by a different branch of the system but I think as a tectonic structure the upper ERZ and the SWRZ seem to be continuous, while the faults and fissure swarms from Makaopuhi eastwards seem to start completely on the ERZ, and it is maybe not coincidental that these lower zones seem to have much more volumnous eruptions. Maybe it is down to similar elevation, the eruption on the 3rd was at about 1 km elevation and an eruption happening from the upper ERZ connector will be about this too, slightly higher even.There is also still the option it erupts in Halemaumau but that is not really going to alter the situations on either rift long term other than making it more likely to break out there next time…

        I still think my idea of the SWRZ pushing enough to lock the ERZ might have merit here. The current swarm is intense but not breaking rock yet, I think the dikes on the SWRZ started after less than this, their intense swarms were caused by the dike itself not the precursors. I also think the 100+ microrad inflation at SDH isnt to be ignored either, its much more than set off the last intrusion from there, and if we are going into the unknown it might be a good time to propose that both areas could intrude together, with it being likely at least one erupts 🙂

        But really, if the next intrusion is on the upper ERZ and it goes beyond the immediate area I might move my timeline for Pu’u O’o Jr forward by 5 years… The ERZ slept after 1965, with Kilauea erupting for most of a year in Halemaumau until 1968, then it went back to the ERZ within 2 months of that stopping and the vent that created Mauna Ulu was erupting within a year… A vent opening east of Pu’u O’o would need the ERZ to open fully and move the magma pressure from the summit to the middle ERZ, which might slow things down a bit, but if that happens within a year then we are looking at a new lava geyser and shield well before 2030, my original guess.

        • Yes, you are probably right with the SWRZ locking the ERZ. Both the connectors run southward when close to the summit, so the deep rifts under the upper rift zones likely face each other and are very close. Inflation of the deep rift under the upper SWRZ is likely to strangle the deep rift under the upper ERZ.

          • In this case, the large pulse/intrusion of magma into the SWRZ in August 2021 may well be the main reason why the ERZ has been relatively inactive for the past few years.

          • There is another element to that I hadnt thought of too. Kilaueas SWRZ flank is smaller but it also sits on Mauna Loa which has moved recently too. And the summit itself also pushes the flank and if you look at CRIM it has moved east much more than south in the last 2 years and especially following the eruption last September.

            The summit is a caldera at the surface but it seems to have a preference to spread, and if uncontested it spreads in line with the SWRZ and directly at a right angle to the ERZ connector. The ERZ seems to be only able to erupt when there is pressure in the rest of the volcano, while eruptions at the summit are unconditional and eruptions on the SWRZ need only the pressure to push into the zone along the grain so to speak.

            When the middle ERZ is open, from Mauna Ulu eastwards, it probably dominates the SWRZ and summit, and stays open as a result. Mauna Ulu was too high up and got taller than the summit leading to failure but when Pu’u O’o formed a bit lower the results are pretty obvious. It will be interesting if a similar eruption east of Pu’u O’o might be even longer or if it will be further away so less connected. Either way I expect at least a decade and 1 km3 of lava

      • How voluminous and what rate would you expect for a possible eruption? The intrusion January/February showed how much magma Kilauea can move in short time.

        • If ot imtrudes southwest like it did last time but with high intensity then maybe similar size to the last fissure eruption at Svartsengi, 20 million m3 in a day or so. Not a big eruption but very fast and lavaflows a l9ng way like 1974.

          Eruption in the Chain of Craters maybe similar but possibly not this time around for a big eruption yet.

    • The PUHR GPS indicates that an eruption between Kaneakakoki and Luamanu crater is most likely. This GPS station moved sharply both south and east. So the most inflation/intrusion must be towards the NW from it:


      July 1974 there was an eruption

      • I think that movement is coming from a bit more west. CRIM is moving strongly east but isnt really moving north or south. While AHUP is also being pushed southeast while also being further west than CRIM too. Most of the quake swarm is also a bit further southeast of PUHR too and it still doesnt show any deformation, but SDH and UWEV tiltmeters all stopped uplifting so magma is clearly going somewhere. I think maybe a very brief intrusion could have happened to offset the ESC tilt but it hasnt stayed open.

        It would be handy if there was a functional tiltmeter further down the SWRZ, to see if magma was flowing down that way still and just in silence after what has happened there this past year. KOSM was good but it is basically in the graben from a month ago and offset a lot. So is probably going to be hard to read for a while.

  5. Fascinating article Albert, thanks! At work I got talking with our lab’s mineralogist one day, about volcanoes and somehow Koryasky came up – the beautiful volcano just north of the main city in Kamchatka. He says, yes, I know it, I’ve hiked all the way around it three times. Wow! He was a very committed mineralogist…

    The ultramarathon on La Palma reminds me of the Three Peaks Race here in Australia. From the linked wiki:

    – 90 nmi to Flinders Island (settlement of Lady Barron) in Bass Strait where two runners proceed to the top of Mount Strzelecki (65 km run; 756 m ascent);
    – 145 nmi to Coles Bay where two runners scale Mount Freycinet (33 km run; 620 m ascent); and
    – 100 nmi to Hobart on the River Derwent where two runners top Mount Wellington (33 km run; 1270 m ascent), and finishing in Hobart.

    The combination of sailing with mountain running made it a race with a fair amount of coverage in the media, but sadly it ceased in 2013 after 25 years. Very tough! But it seems to me that the Canaries or the Azores would make perfect places for such an event, given excellent weather and actual volcanoes to run up to the top of!

  6. The part-two of the interview with Þorvaldur Þórðarson about what he thinks about the Icelandic events has dropped:

  7. Thanks for a fun and interesting article. At my age, it makes me feel wheezy just looking at these walks and climbs.
    Icelandic volcanoes are so handy with their streaming live cameras and drone users!

  8. Multiple earthquakes per minute along the Chain of Crater, visible on seismometers, in Kilauea volcano, right now. These are intrusion levels of seismicity, although I still don’t see clear signs of a dike intrusion. The area might be just about to snap.

    • The centre of inflation is close to the KKU seismometer (from the GPS measurements) and is no more than 1 km deep (because it no longer caused tilt at SDH, it is shallower than the distance to that instrument). An eruption just south of the caldera is one possible outcome. Of course the GPS data is always a day behind, so will not show the current development.

      • Would think at that point an intrusion up the ring fault is the easiest way. Which is a nice place for viewing although the chance it climbs the wall is enough being at Keanakako’i where I saw it might be a bad idea…

  9. A category-4 hurricane is expected in the Caribbean tomorrow . Very dangerous and exceptionally early in the season

    • These TCs have been defying models and overperforming in intensification since 2017. Beryl just had one of the most rapid intensifications ever observed. It’s definitely going to weaken once it hits the eastern Caribbean but it does look like it’s going to enter the gulf which has been on track with producing a good number of rapidly intensifying monsters such as Ian. Hopefully the shear and dry air keeps a july disaster from happening.

    • Hawaii sits in warm seawaters ( sea 28 c in Autumn) and also haves very high humidity .. why are strong Hurricanes rare in Hawaii? I have sometimes wild dreams of a Cat 5 s insane rainfall attacking the old Halema’uma’u overlook lava lake surface

      • 28C is not warm enough for hurricanes. The ones that hit Hawaii form much further east and if theyb get this far, tend to have already weakened quite a bit. Hurricane Ikini was the exception to this rule. It happened during an El Nino year. But mostly, hurricanes bring rain to Hawaai rather than strong winds. Flash flooding can do a lot of damage.

      • Limit for tropical cyclone development is 26 c I think and thats winter water temperatures in Hawaii, Air temperatures gets up to 30 c in noon everyday on the lee side

  10. The Hverfall crater looks like a sibling to the craters of Honolulu (f.e. Diamond Head).

    An ultimate mountain race would be a run from the beach to the peak of Tenerife on Teide, the highest mountain of Spain and a wrong placed Andes volcanic peak … it doesn’t look European or oceanic, but rather like a Andes volcano. The landscape also reminds more to Mexico or another Pan-American desert than Europe. This was historically the first step of Spain towards the colonial empire in America. On the way from the beach to the peak of Teide you can cross many climatic mountain zones from Subtropical to Tundra landscape.
    More potentially extreme volcanic runs from sea level to summit are Mauna Kea and the Chimborazo. Indeed, the last one is likely the volcano with the highest slopes from the geographical environment.

    • I think a marathon up Mauna Kea would be borderline impossible, its not the altitude but the fact it is all uphill the whole way, for like 50 km or more, there are no downhills to recover and its always cold because of the plateau terrain in the saddle. Hilo is by contrast very humid and usually hot, I think running through such a contrast without acclimatizing could be dangerous even to experienced indivuduals. Even at Kilauea which is much lower than the saddle it is below 10 C in winter most nights and some days.

      • People have died up there from altitude sickness combined with exhaustion. I am aware of one case. It would be important to have spend sufficient time at altitude in the days before the event, in order to acclimatize. Any visitor (and worker) is required to stop at the visitor centre at the 3km altitude point for half an hour before continuing up. Being up there is not easy even without trying to do extreme sport. Add to this the state of the road beyond the 3-km (altitude) point which is unpaved over its steepest part and really requires four wheel drive (even though tourists do go in their rental cars, not entirely in agreement with the rental contract and every expensive if they get stuck). People do hike up from the 3-km point: it is around a 20 km return to the summit from there, on a track taking a different route from the road. Be aware you need to walk back as well – no bus.

      • I have been up at Mauna Keas summit and had no problem.. did that first day after arrival to Hawaii.. driving up to the summit.. I had no altitude sickness. It was an extraodinary sight seeing many 100 s of kilometers out to sea… a blue sea dotted with passade trade wind cumulus as far as you can see

        • You were lucky. I hope you did do the mandatory stop at the visitor centre. It is unpredictable and even a healthy person can get in trouble. For us, it seems random. Sometimes, no problem at all, at other times suddenly the altitude does affect you

        • Just walked around the observatory domes and the alkaline cinder cones ( where Andrea Ghez ) made her discovery of the central black hole of Milky Way, Mauna Loa was dark blue because of raileigh scattering, another pale blue dot was further north.. the boulge of hualalai… the sea was hazy and full of trade wind cumulus, sea full of floating popcorn a good sign of weak convection over the tropical ocean, Mauis light blue shape was also seen with a cumulus fortess on top of it… it was a lovely sight

          • I have had many great evenings and nights on Mauna Keas summit. Towards the evening you can see Earths shadow up there, Earths shadow cast itself on the lower atmosphere, the skies also becomes paler when the sun haves to shine through more atmosphere, towards the evening everything becomes soft up threre at Mauna Kea, high clouds floats across the sky until they merges togther at the horizon to form whirling swirling fiery, burning violet pink sunsets that are slowly silienced by the comming nightfall . Then, as if the sun had failed totaly in minutes, thousands of glistening galaxies are spewed out into night that comes so fast indeed in the tropics, night are lit by Kilaueas red dim glow if you stare down at Puna area = very beautyful

          • Reinhard Genzel I think was first with that discovery, and it was done at the NTT in Chile. Both teams got the Nobel prize for it though.

    • And in Kailua Kona you risks dying from heatstroke if you do the runn at sealevel , a place thats more or less as hot as the Equator all year around Kona side experience higher noon temperatures due to less cloud cover giving more insolation Kona gets very hot and yet having almost as high humidity as Hilo. All the Mauna Loa and Hualalai black lava flows from 1800 s also makes it much hotter than the other islands due to black surfaces heating up more. I been both in South Thailand and Kailua Kona in winter .. they where both as bad at noon

      Still Kailua Kona is souch an incredibley beautyful place and likey having the worlds clearest seawater

      • Not soure if Hawaii woud be any warmer at all on the eqautor, there will be no dry side at ITCZ.. everything woud be as wet as Hilo

    • Canaries specialy Teide looks like the andean volcanoes due to arid dry climates and highly evolved magmas forming similar volcanic edifices and eruption activity. Teide indeed looks like some bolivian/ peruan stratovolcanoes that sit on thick crust with cream coloured evolved blocky flows, Teide is way more alkaline.. but evolved magmas results in similar landform morphology. I have have noticed that Cape Verde and Canaries are very dry while Azores and Hawaii are very green.. coud be that at Canaries and Verdes the cold seacurrents below a warm airmass forms a dry inversion cap and prevents convective rainfall. .. Ortographic rainfall seems also limited in eastern Canaries and most of Cape Verdes with cooler currents. While its very common in Hawaii and Azores that are very green … Hawaii thats the most tropical of all these benefits from its larger taller volcanoes and warmer oceans for more ortographic rainfall. Azores is wet due to low pressure cyclone belts

      Here is some superfun experiments with Earths tilt! the imaginary results really is a radicaly alien planet compared to what we haves today in real life. I go for seapole for my own weather improvment. Hawaii, Canaries, Azores, Iceland, Galapagos, Reuinion woud be radicaly diffirent on these alternative Earths for soure

      • What scenario woud Albert chose from? I myself woud go for seapole.. since Im always cold and feels sickly in cold wet conditions

      • Shiveria is a scary example what happens if two large continents ends up over the poles creating two antartica sized continental icehseets, last time that happned in the real world was during the Carboniferous – Perminian Ice Age and that was a severe Ice Age probaly more so than what the pleistocene ice ages so far. The Karoo Ice house lasted for 100 million years until volcanic activity brought it to and end in the later permian era. Earths volcanic cO2 outgassing have decreased as it have aged,even if radioactive decay keeps volcanism rather constant but as a slow cooker… but the solar luminosity have also gone up over the billions of years that have gone by since hadean era. It will be very intresting to see when Ice Ages will be no longer possible.. due to the ever rising solar luminosity, Karoo Ice Age had a 3% lower solar luminosity compared to today.. less and less cO2 will be needed over time to keep Earth warm as the sun gets brigther

    • Thank-you for the link, Zach! The active period of Mauna Loa was from 1840 to 1950, around 100 years. Does Kilauea’s active period last as long as Mauna Loa’s? If so, we might expect an more active Mauna Loa from 2040/2050 onwards and a more calm Kilauea.

      • I think they are a lot more random and variable than the easy alternation idea. There are definitely negative correlations over the historical period but not a blanket dominance. Its easy to forget that while Mauna Loa erupted some big flows Kilauea did keep an open lava lake nearly the whole time, and had some strong activity at times like 1918-1924 when Mauna Loa was mostly quiet. Lava lakes dont exist without a robust heat supply

        And of course, Mauna Loa has also still erupted a full 0.9 km3 of lava in the present dominant period of Kilauea since 1950. The only volcano in Iceland to erupt more than that in the same time period is Bardarbunga, and its as much as Hekla and Grimsvotn erupted combined… And thats the volcano getting second pick of the magma, goes to show the different rules Hawaiian volcanism goes by, its crazy.

        • Before 1843 Mauna Loa was nearly inactive, maybe comparable to the long break between 1984 and 2022. 1843 was also one of the Maune Kea saddle eruptions like 2022. 1790-1840 were the decades, when Kilauea was very active, first to fill the caldera quickly after the 1790 collapse and second to do rift eruptions around 1823.

          It would be interesting to know, when and how the activity level of the two Hawaiian volcanoes changes. Would we notice, if Kilauea begins to do less and Mauna Loa to increase?

          • Thing is Kilauea was also very active in the 1840s and it didnt slow down so much until the 1850s when Mauna Loa got really active (1852, 1855, 1859 all very large and long lived eruptions). Kilauea was also actively filling the caldera with a lava shield from 1868 to the 1890s and again 1918-1921. Mauna Loa had lava lake activity in the 1870s but it was not really as stable more like the filling of Halemaumau in 2022, an open area on a floating crust, than a lava shield.

            If I had to guess the amount of deep quakes might be a clue as well as the magma composition. But that would lean towards Kilauea actually becoming even more dominant. Mauna Loa 2022 lava has the lowest MgO of any of its historical lavas while Kilauea before 2011 had consistently high MgO, it is hard to tell now though because olivine settles out in the big chamber and skews the numbers.
            Mauna Loa 2022 lava was relatively cool tthough, I think around 1130C off memory, it was over 1200 C in 1859. And Kilauea has been over 1200 C in its summit eruptions and in the 2018 lake. So its pretty clear where the heat is going I think.

          • 1840 to 1868 HVO notes that Kilauea was “dome building” in the caldera. This looks like a balanced activity, when a lava lake was standing without neither draining nor overflowing. So a nearly zero volume eruption. During this time Mauna Loa had seven eruptions, including a 444 days ERZ eruption, a 300 days radial eruption and a 122 days summit eruption.

            Still, during the highly active periods of Mauna Loa, the breaks between eruptions were long compared to common breaks on Kilauea. 1790 to 1924 there was no year without an eruption of Kilauea. 1924 to 1952 Kilauea had a calm period with long breaks comparable to Mauna Loa’s breaks, but that’s very extraordinary for Kilauea.

    • Those are two of the most insightful Hawaii volcanism authors, in my opinion, together with Robin T. Holcomb. And that is probably the most extensive work on historical Kilauea volcanism. I have spent a lot of time in the appendices.


      Basically an article on the 1823 eruption of Kīlauea on the SW rift zone (and by far the only one to ever reach the ocean in historical times from the SW rift zone. It is interesting because it did not produce any spatter around the source of the flow, the Great Crack. Despite that fact, the lava flow was so fluid and violent it managed to travel up a few older cones, down the crater, and out again. I don’t know what the cones “original” names are, but I prefer the Lava-Plastered Cones.

      The picture of one of the cones.

      In spite its powerful nature, it seems the lava is less than a meter thick, speaking volumes about its fluidity…

      • I think its likely there were some fountains in a few locations but the lava was degassed and fountains would have been mostly just from hydraulic head.

        There are a few videos of the last lava flows from Nyiragongo that are probably a very good comparison. The source fissures resemble the great crack too, but a few areas look like fountaining occurred. Nyiragongo is a lot smaller and way taller than Kilauea though, so the Kilauea lake drainouts are probably a little less intense and much more voluminous relatively, but 0.1 km3 of lava erupting in a day is still not a great thing to be downhill of…

      • Yes, it was like a Bloody Mary Lava flow. Just liquid lava puring out of fissures.

  11. I have always said that there is no sport more suited to a volcanic venue than parkour, which I believe to be merely a refined version of the-floor-is-lava. Of course true volcano-parkour would have to include active flows of lava and would be for only the fittest, bravest, and best-medically-insured participants.


  12. Fell running in the Lake District springs to mind. In 2020 Kim Collison did 78 peaks in a 24 hour period. I do half marathons and wouldn’t even attempt some of these – they look brutal!

  13. Re-inflation at Svartsengi seems to have picked up immensely. We are now looking at the next event in the beginning of August rather than September. Around 110mm uplift since 6th June.

  14. May I ask something about Campi Flegrei?

    I’m looking for serious links about evacuation plans and status quo now..
    I’m watching INGV stations since months…there had been some major occurings… but these days? here and there… some small events.

    Are the evac plans going to be real now?

    Thanks for this wonderful and enriching place here!

    • The volcanic situation and possible activity is very complex there. Therefore they likely have difficulties to predict what is going to happen. There can be a big variety of eruptions, f.e. a viscous Surtseyan eruption like Monte Nuovo, a sudden hydrothermal explosion or an Ash eruption (phreatomagmatic). The location is unkown and the size of a possible eruption. I’d think that the most dangerous events are sudden explosions out of nothing, like the famous explosion on White Island 2019 (New Zealand). They don’t allow evacuation before.

    • I assume you are asking out of interest and not because you are there! We always recommend to follow the guidance and instructions of the officials. If it is a random re-posted bot on twitter, you may want to be sceptical, if the local volcano observatory, it is rather more urgent. An eruption will have days or more warning, so there will be enough time to leave. But for now, there is no sign of anything imminent and the main risk would seem to be a larger earthquake. M5 is not impossible, so make the house shake-proof. Nail book cases to the wall, for instance, and remove that illegal extra floor on the house..


    The hurricane have grown into a behemoth, with 270 kilometers an hour gusts… well Hurricane patricia 2015 had 345 kilometers an hour winds, but this one is bad enough and dangerous enough. It dwarfs any Icelandic storm in intensity, winds hundreds of kilometers an hour. We never gets storms like this in Europe because the seawaters are simply too cold, there is not enough convective energy for Hurricanes in colder seas. Tropical Hurricanes are completely warm cored and runned by cumulonimbus convection thats very diffirent from my boring warm fronts, yet the passage of a tropical cyclone yeilds a cloud sequence thats quite similar to a very strong warm front, Hurricanes are grey are featureless from underside

    • It’s a big one. But as for Europe…don’t be too sure. When our daughter was graduating in London, 2017, we had Hurricane Ophelia still at category 1 less than a day off southern Ireland and heading north. As expected, it collapsed, a few hours off the Irish coast.
      Never say no!

      • Sometimes Europe gets Ex-Hurricans or transforming Hurricanes. Often this happens towards fall (September-October), when Atlantic Hurricans don’t reach the US coast, but turn towards the northeast and Europe. I remember one Ex-Huricane cyclone which caused heavy rainfall in Bergen (Western Norway) 2005, where they’re used to much rain, but this still was more than normal life.

      • Simply won’t happen. Seas around Ireland are far too cold to support a tropical system.

        In recorded history only two tropical systems have definitely made landfall in Europe as tropical systems. Hurricane Vince in 2005 made landfall in Spain as a tropical depression and Tropical Storm Alpha in 2020 made landfall in Portugal as a tropical storm. Given that it’s very likely that other tropical systems have made similar landfalls in the past, but not been recorded as such. Nevertheless it’s still a rare event.

        • While i agree that the seas around ireland are too cool to sustain hurricanes, Hurricanes are not unheard of and former hurricanes are common. Scientists debate whether or not these had transitions or transitioned fully by time they made land fall in Ireland. Global Boiling has put the formation area possible for hurricanes much closer to Ireland than what is should be.

          There are examples

          Hurricane Ophelia 2017

          Hurricane Charlie 1986

          Hurricane Debbie 1961

  16. I found these very insightful pdfs, showing the erupted volumes of lava at both Kilauea and Mauna Loa historically. They arent perfect, Kilauea 2018 is about 50% bigger than shown, and Mauna Loa 2022 isnt there. Nor is a lot of the 19th century lava lake filling recorded. But still it is a great resource.

    As a side, I actually added these up as well as some of my own estimates of a few eruptions not displayed. The results actually surprised me a bit.

    Mauna Loa since 1790 has erupted about 5.1 km3 of lava. Which is a lot. Hekla has erupted only 2.3 km3 of lava in the same interval. Bardarbunga probably about the same. Most of this volume was erupted by frequent eruptions from 1850-1880, and from 1950-present at much longer intervals. The average interval is 6.8 years, and the volume a very impressive 0.15 km3, which would be a mid sized VEI 4 of about 0.5 km3 if it was a tephra eruption. I dont think there are any stratovolcanoes that can do a VEI 4 every 7 years for over 2 centuries. 🙂

    Kilauea though, there really is no other way to say it, there is nothing even close anywhere else today. Since 1790 it has erupted about 15 km3 of lava… or about 11-11.5 km3 if you dont include the 1790 collapse. So Kilauea has probably erupted more lava than the volume of Laki in the time since Laki happened… I dont know if there is a way to know how big the 1790 caldera collapse really was, but if it was as deep as the 2018 pit over the whole caldera it is somewhere between 4.24 km3 (cylinder) and 1.4 km3 (cone) depending on how steep the walls are. Its also not unlikely to have been deeper, and if it was like 2018 then the amount of erupted lava was probably much bigger than the collapse too, wherever that was, but that is probably getting too speculative. I went with around 4 km3 of lava as an estimate.

    Added together and Hawaii has erupted about 20 km3 of lava since 1790, more if you count Hualalai and the apparently not insignificant amount that Kama’ehuakanaloa erupts that isnt well dated. I think there are still a lot of variables, so the numbers are not absolute. But it is still pretty clear that at least in the past few centuries Kilauea dominates over Mauna Loa in total output, although Mauna Loa does do consistently much bigger and faster single eruptions typically, with a few exceptions.
    If the plume generates 0.21 km3 of magma a year that is theoretically about 49 km3 of magma that was generated since 1790, so about 40% of the magma reaches the surface. Although, since 1983 a crazy 73% of the magma generated has erupted…


    • Thank-you for you work on collecting all the data, Chad!

      Hawaii is an extraordinary Hotspot, not comparable to any other in the world. I have the feeling that we can call it the Olympus Mons of Earth, the main planetary hotspot. While Olympus Mons is higher from bottom to peak, Hawaii adds a long trail of seamounts and islands which make an enourmous amount of volcanic volume over geological timescales. I we look f.e. on the volume of last 1 million years, the greater picture becomes more clear.

      The quantity of Hawaii’s magmatic productivity increases even more, if we add the intruded magma that didn’t erupt. This happens often, and is one way how shield volcanoes grow.

      • Yes, the volume of the Big Island is something like 200,000 km3 and Maui Nui similar a little larger even, and maybe a bit smaller for Oahu Nui (?) and Kauai. So possibly a million km3 of lava in the existing big Hawaiian islands volcanoes. Most of the older seamounts are not as big as the recent islands but I wouldnt be surprised if the total since the Cretaceous is several million km3.

        Iceland I think is probably similar, it might be bigger, Hawaii has kind of surged up suddenly while Iceland has been strong since the Miocene. Actually Iceland and Olympus Mons are not too different in size, only Iceland goes down instead of up (20+ km thick crust in the middle). Although Iceland is mostly intrusive and plutonic, so it is a LIP but not a flood basalt. Olympus Mons is probably similar to flood basalt provinces, although being on Mars it is maybe not identical to what would form on Earth.

        • The long line of Hawiian islands and seamounts in a relative young geological time shows, how fast the Pacific Plate is moving. If the Hawaii Hotspot were in Iceland’s position, it would be nearly geostationary and would have built the highest volcano on earth, maybe even the highest mountain on earth. In this case, the Hawaii-Iceland hotspot would probably build a bridge from Greenland to Faroe islands. But glaciation would be unbelievable strong, and weather pattern for Europe would be different.

          • Not higher I think, Olympus Mons is 20+ km tall because Mars has lower gravity and thicker crust. Venus has a few volcanoes around 8-10 km, so seens likely Earth has a similar upper limit. And both these tall Venusian volcanoes and Hawaii are only tall because of young age, they sink soon after. At least Hawaii is that case, Gardner Pinnacle is at sea level and the top of Puhahonu volcano, the last giant before the modern islands, and 4-5 km sunk into the mantle since its prime.

            If Iceland plume was as strong as Hawaii + the MOR added I think it would be the same as it actually is but more productive, not a 20 km mountain. Middle of Iceland has 20-30 km thick crust so is in a way an inverted Mons at least volumetrically. Though as said, it is mostly plutonic with lava veneer not a shield volcano.

          • There seems to be a bit of a height limit. Mountains in inner solar system seem to peak at similar gravity-adjusted heights. I think we had an article on this site here suggesting that Mona Loa was pretty much at that height adjusting for water partially supporting. Mona Loa is seen as being in decline, but that is only by Kilaeua standards! We are talking about a volcano that is struggling to keep up with its own slumping despite erupting perhaps 5km^3 since 1790 as Chad discussed. It probably can’t get much taller.

            That said you could absolutely have a much bigger volcano province and even bigger volcanos. Mona Loa’s rift zones drop off pretty steeply elevation-wise.

      • The only difference, as according to the eruption chart above, is that the flank eruption occurred on the SW rift zone instead.

        • 1868 SWRZ didnt cause the caldera collapse, that was probably more because the whole south flank of the island moved and opened up a lot of space and a little bit leaked out on the SWRZ, and maybe on the middle ERZ. Same kind of thing in 1975, where the volcano went from frequent summit and upper rift activity and Mauna Ulu, to entirely middle ERZ within a decade after. 1868 didnt have the magma supply to do a Pu’u O’o though, so a shield formed at the summit instead.

          • 1868 was a major destructive earthquake that changed Big Island and caused during this year untypical behaviour on Kilauea and Mauna Loa. Has it also changed the way Kilauea erupted during the last 30 years of 19th century?

    • New Kilauea INSAR showing past the recent swarm. All of the uplift of the HVO interferogram is still there but the uplift on the ERZ connector in the past few days obscures it… Seems like both rifts are at play now, or at least the upper part of the ERZ is.

      I think the elevation might make it hard to have a lot of activity here though, maybe in Pauahi and Hi’iaka if dikes cross them otherwise very minor. The SWRZ dikes rifted down to elevations of about 750 meters and to get that from an upper ERZ dike would need an intrusion going east of Pu’u O’o. Which isnt impossible but seems unlikely, so I think we will keep getting small fast eruptions at the rifts, maybe up to moderate size, and more eruptions of moderate size in Halemaumau. Up until pressure pushes past the bend west of Mauna Ulu and we get more ERZ activity. Might be a gap of lower activity for a few months to years between that breakthrough (probably with an earthquake) and significant eruptive activity, marked by big uplift at middle ERZ stations.

      • And as I post this, the brief gap in activity has ended with new quakes in the rift connectors and resumed fast uplift at SDH.

  17. Record-shattering Hurricane Beryl is now CAT5 as it churns towards the WNW over the Caribbean.
    This storm has several un-heard-of features that further highlights how the climate has changed.
    The storm formed further south than any such storm in June, as well as being the first major hurricane to form over the open Atlantic so early in the season. Up to this time, most forecasts had Beryl starting to weaken and nail the Yucatan Peninsula, however there is now a sizeable number of ensemble members that suggest the storm may swing further north putting Jamaica and eventually the Texas gulf coast under the gun.
    But Beryl is not the only story ATTM, as California and the western US in general is hunkering down for what could be a record streak of temps above 110F. ATTM, the forecasts show temps may reach 117F at my place in the Sacramento Valley (east of Cape Mendocino)…which if verified would tie the official all-time record high temp for Redding (my place). With massive grass and underbrush growth from this Winter’s copious rainfall, it’s going to be a tinder box for an explosion of wildfires.
    And lastly, not sure if this has been mentioned, but ever since the total solar eclipse a couple of months ago, global earthquake activity has been unusually quiet. In the couple of weeks prior to the eclipse, there were several major quakes and swarms, with NW Japan and Taiwan getting particularly hard hit. Like volcanoes, earthquakes have a mind of their own, and the current dearth of activity is likely just coincidence…but you never know?

    • In the three months after the eclipse, there have been 22 M6+ quakes with one above M7. In the three months prior to the eclipse, there were 27 M6+ quakes, of which 2 were >M7. This is a completely normal frequency of quakes, totally unrelated to the moon happening to pass in front of the sun.

      Source USGS.

      • Interesting….thanks Tomas for the clarification.
        I looked at the eclipse date +/- one month, and the Taiwan quake swarm was a just few days before the eclipse and there really hasn’t been anything noteworthy since then…so hardly enough to indicate any cause/effect. Other than that, globally it was/remains pretty quiet almost everywhere save for the far western Pacific rim.
        Where it’s really quiet is here in northern California where other than sporadic activity near the Mendocino Triple Junction, and a single M6.0 NE of San Francisco (Napa) in 2014, most of NorCal has yet to see a return of activity anywhere near what was typical prior to Loma Prieta (though it’s a different story to the south of Loma Prieta which after the quake has seen major shocks at Northridge, Hector Mine, Landers, San Simeon, the much-delayed Parkfield event and most recently near Ridgecrest just to name a few).
        It has now been 35+yrs since Loma Prieta, so we’re not talking about a brief hiccup in activity. So why this extended period of quiescence? Even after the great M7.8 1906 SA earthquake, the number of quakes >M5 near the Bay Area was on the upswing on many of the secondary faults well within 30 yrs. I grew up just south of San Francisco (1951 onward) and it was a near yearly occurrence that at least one M5+ shock would hit somewhere within 75 miles…many on splay/secondary faults like the Greenville, Calaveras and Hayward/Rodgers Creek…all of which have largely remained unusually quiet now for many decades. But we all know this quiet period won’t last forever…eventually the same land that’s moving up from the south will force the fault(s) further north to fail…but fer now, there’s still not a lot a signs of faults starting to break under accumulating stress/strain.

    • “Record-shattering Hurricane Beryl is now CAT5 as it churns towards the WNW over the Caribbean.
      This storm has several un-heard-of features that further highlights how the climate has changed.”

      No it doesn’t. One hurricane is weather. End of discussion.

      Now a pattern of similar hurricanes in multiple years where that had not happened previously would be a different matter. That IS climate.

      • There have been trends in hurricane numbers and location that are unusual and this is already a widely accepted trend… I dont know much about this field but others do and have brought it up. There is a lot of extreme weather happening more often or more extreme than is typical or would fit nicely in a natural cycle.

        If the world was untouched we would probably be entering the next glacial right now but are rapidly going towards a hothouse climate instead, and 1000x faster than anything in the geological record. Its not really unreasonable to think the weather might change at similar speed. 🙂

      • If I understand you correctly, you argue here that one such hurricane can just happen while in your response to Clive (about Ireland) you say it simply can’t happen. I think you might need to reconsider one of the two responses.

        In this case, there have been warnings about this year’s hurricane season, triggered by the exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and the developing La Nina. The second part hasn’t happened yet, but the prediction has already come true, albeit in an unexpected manner.

        Global warming does not in itself predict more hurricanes. However, there is an expectation that ones that do form can strengthen more easily and will (!) produce more rain. That seems to be holding up.

        • No.

          I said the waters off Ireland are far too cold to sustain tropical systems. Thus a tropical system making landfall in Ireland as a tropical system simply won’t ever happen.

          With respect to Beryl on the other hand I am saying that a single hurricane behaving like this weather and not climate. Several hurricanes in different years behaving this wy on the other hand is climate and not weather.

          • Ophelia was unusual in that it came up from the south. Most ex-tropical systems hitting Ireland or the UK come from the west. Ophelia came to within a day of reaching Ireland as a tropical storm. The sea is now warmer than it was then. if a storm like this reforms (they never do), it could get even closer. I feel that the chances of such an event are similar to those of Beryl’s exceptional formation and evolution. Under current conditions, exceptional weather may no longer be exceptional.

  18. The map for the uplift of Kīlauea. Seems to be still somewhat tied to the Southwest rift zone, but after the June 28th-30th swarms on the East rift connector, it might look different…

    • In July 1974 there was a fissure eruption from Kaneakoki crater to Luamanu crater. The present inflation and magma movement may support a similar event. Can a repeated fissure eruption there be larger than 1974?

      • I think it is too high up, an eruption as big as or bigger than the July 1974 eruption would probably be enough pressure in the magma system to erupt lower down. But maybe not.

        As a side I got the uplift of various GPS stations at Kilauea. This is just since the September 2021 eruption too.

        CRIM: 60cm
        OUTL: 60cm
        AHUP: 70cm
        CNPK: 50cm
        PUHR: 35 cm
        UWEV: 15 cm

        • A more general topic: The M 6.6 Honumu earthquake on Mauna Kea 26 April 1973 showed evidence for connection of Mauna Kea to Kilauea.
          “Following the earthquake (IIB), the eruption was marked by many more intrusions and two eruptions elsewhere on the east rift zone”
          “The Mauna Kea (Honomü) earthquake of 26 April 1973 at 10:26 a.m. was followed immediately by an abrupt inflation of nearly 25 μrad measured at Uwëkahuna and, 7 hours later, by a small flurry of deep (20–35 km) magma-supply earthquakes that overlapped with increased seismicity beneath Kïlauea’s east rift zone (table 5.6; fig. 5.9)”
          (Two Hundred Years of Magma Transport and Storage at Kïlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, 1790–2008; By Thomas L. Wright and Fred W. Klein)

          • Interesting, although maybe shouldnt be so surprising given how big Mauna Hea is. We often try to separate the volcanoes but really in a physical sense there are only two mountains on the big island and those are made of multiple volcanoes. That is Kilauea and Mauna Loa are separate magma systems but technically they are a single physical structure. And Mauna Kea and Kohala are two volcanoes but 1 mountain. Would make sense Kilauea can also be affected by the mass of Mauna Kea especially a big quake.

          • Kilauea is probably Mauna Kea’s successor. The shift of volcanism from Mauna Kea to Kilauea may not be finally completed. There are likely deep structures that witness from this relation. The last active period of Mauna Kea is 4000-6000 years ago. It would be interesting to know, if Kilauea reacted a bit to this, but the lava and tephra of this age are deep buried under many recent layers.

        • Yes, the recent inflation south of the caldera is spectacular. It seems centred on the old rim, somewhere near RIMD, judging from the (very large) horizontal movements. There may be some rebound in it from the weight of the lava lake, but the motion has accelerated a lot in recent weeks.

          • Not sure it is rebound from the lake. Seems further south of RIMD too, closer to OUTL. The eruptions of 2023 only added about 1/4 of the total lake volume but the south caldera and upper SWRZ area (maybe also now the upper ERZ too) has gone from about 10% to 80% recovered from the 2018 collapse in about 8-9 nonths, at this rate it will be back to that by early August although I will be surprised if there isnt an intrusion before that. Although anything short of a breaktbrough to the middle ERZ is unlikely to postpone reaching the 2018 high before the year is up,

  19. Some EQ activity at Lanjökull, although it had several EQ in the past, is this related to the current “rifting” episode or is this a seperate thing?

    • During the Medieval Fires Cycle some neighbouring systems to Reykjanes Peninsula were more active than we’re used to. It is possible that we get eruptions on WVZ (Langjökull, Hengill) or Snæfellsjökull Belt. But they would be surprises. It is impossible to predict future events.

      I’d assume that rifting in the Reykjanes Volcanic Zone changes the geophysical setting for close systems. It can be one factor of many that influence volcanoes there.

      • Hallmundahraun eruption up next to Langjokull happened in the 9th or 10th century AD, was a huge eruption somewhere between a fast fissure eruption and a lava shield in intensity. Was probably a many years long eruption, maybe a decade even.

        There was also a small lava shield and cone formed near Bifrost and Eldborg in the Ljosufjoll area. Looks very similar to the 2021 cone and lava field and probably a similar size, although a lot of nearby cones are atypically tall for Icelandic pyroclastic cones so probably have tall fountains.

        Snaefellsjokull might also erupt, it didnt in the last Reykjanes cycle but its last dated eruption was maybe during the interval of the cycle before, 1800 years ago. And most of its coastline is voluminous Holocene lava of many compositions so evidently it is a powerful volcano despite its silence.

        And there is Hekla and maybe the whole south Iceland volcanoes. Hekla becoming more active after erupting in the past Reykjanes cycle. The connection is not as strong given Hekla has erupt a lot since but it does sit right at the other end of the Reykjanes transform fault so its not exactly unreasonable to draw a link.

        • Hengill is on the triple point between Reykjanes Volcanic Zone, Western Volcanic Zone and the non-volcanic South Seismic zone. The South Seismic Zone may mediate between the RVZ and the western EVZ volcanoes like Hekla and Katla.

    • Io must be almost completely nearly molten… with so many large scale lava lakes…its almost as the entire moon is transforming itself into one huge lava lake

  20. On the Hawaiian hot spot, it seems to still be growing more powerful. Its already arguably a borderline LIP. Is it going to develop into an ocean-splitter with time? New rift zones often seem associated with LIPs. Maybe Hawaii down the road will develop into a true LIP and instead of a bunch of smaller volcanos we will have one complex drafting Mona Loa in size and Kilauea in strength. Then eventually the line between rift zone and mid-ocean ridge becomes rather blurry. And suddenly the Pacific is shrinking no more…

    I do wonder if that would have more or less already happened if the hotspot was on land. Yellowstone is a fairly weak hotspot, but you can still trace the arc of it dynamiting through North America. What would a true giant do? Cratons are hard but brittle…

    Not really an expert on this aspect of volcanos, so maybe I’m totally off-base, just where my mind went.

    • I think the only reason why Hawaii isnt an actual traps volcano is because it is in the ocean and getting fast LIPs there probably requires some crazy melting rates like a surfacing plume head. But a lot of continental provinces averaged over their active lives are not necessarily more productive than Hawaii. Columbia River basalts is sometimes belittled as the ‘smallest LIP’ but its indivudual eruptions were no small matter, lava floods 100x the volume of Eldgja, multiple 1000s of km3. But the high estimates of the CRB are still less than half of what Hawaii has erupted over the same active interval. Even gigantic traps provinces like Deccan are only about 2-3x the volume of Hawaii in the same interval…

      It also is relevant that maybe the biggest recent lava flows on the planet erupted from the abyssal plain north of Hawaii in the North Arch volcanic field. Lava flows that erupted as sheet flows in the freezing abyssal ocean, with volumes of tens to maybe 100 km3… The age isnt known nor is the full extent but the volcanism is probably ongoing if episodic. Not 1000+ km3 but a lava flow 5x the volume of Laki erupted in a few weeks is not bad 🙂

      If Yellowstone had the magma generation of Hawaii thee most likely would be an ongoing traps eruption right now. And it is possible the western side of North America would be quite a lot more broken. The Gulf of California might go a lot further north and be filled in with lava at the north end…
      Even in real life, its hard not to notice that all of the basin and range province north of New Mexico basically looks like a bow shock around Yellowstone. A VEI 8 is not about to happen but I think Yellowstone and its surroundings have been done an injustice on here, it is one of the worlds largest and most voluminous continental volcanoes after all, maybe close to 10,000 km3, more than 10x as big as the average stratovolcano ever gets. Not to mention Craters of the Moon which is a young and active rifting fissure volcano that has done fissure eruptions almost as big as Laki more often than the actual Laki fissure has… And the plume being snuffed out under the craton is probably greatly exaggerated…

    • We can look at Hawaii as the global hotspot, while other hotspots are of very different class. Maybe the Earth’s Core has its main planetary hotspot below Hawaii, that’s then mediated through the mantle plume.

      Many regional hotspots were related to rifting: Iceland, Azores, India-Reunion, St. Helena, … also the Eifel hotspot may be related to the Rhine rift valleys. We can even look at the divergent oceanic plate boundaries as a linear Hotspot. Below f.e. the middle Atlantic rift there is an upflow in the mantle, that reminds much to the plumes below punctual hotspots.

      • There are some other true deep plumes in the Pacific, maybe potentially as strong as Hawaii but not in a high state of activity. Like Tahiti and Samoa, and further back in time Fiji. They apparently loosely form around one of tbe two low velocity zones in the lower mantle. Yellowstone I think is part of the Pacific complex.

        The other one is under Africa and drives the rifting of that continent and volcanism there. Reunion, Comoros and Iceland are related to this.

        Key difference of the deep plumes is very magnesian magma of tholeiite composition and I think the presence of higher levels of He3 in the magma. He3 is primordial, while He4 is made continuously from anything undergoing alpha decay. Alpha particles are He4 nuclei, which will easily take two electrons from any other atom nearby and become helium. But He3 isnt formed outside of fusion so isnt generated this way. Only deep mantle with no surface interaction will have significant He3.

        The lava in Hawaii is also very hot. I think the hottest lava of the entire Cenozoic and maybe even since the breakup of Pangea. Those deep layers of the mantle are still Archean temperature.

    • Polynesian volcanism has seen better times. 1 million years ago, the Polynesian hotspots were more powerful than now.

      Before 1 million years ago, Tahiti and Marquesas were probably about as productive as Reunion is now. At present, Tahiti is barely active, and Marquesas is probably dead.

      In the Caroline hotspot, Kosrae was shield building around 1-1.5 million years ago and Pohnpei was doing rejuvenated volcanism around the same time. Both then died out…

      Hawaii probably peaked around 1.4-1 million years ago. Since Haleakala and Kohala, which had their main rifting at the time, had longer rift zones than Kilauea, and Haleakala had the longest since Puhahonu or arguably earlier. Maui Nui was larger than Hawaii, and Haleakala covered a larger subaerial extension than Mauna Loa. Hawaii has held fairly strong though, and it’s probably not that far behind its Maui Nui times.

      Samoa remains a powerful volcanic province, although hard to tell how much because Vaiululu, the main volcano, is deep underwater. That said, the size of some of the younger volcanoes like Tau or Ofu-Olosega, that have probably completed their growth, are much smaller than Tuituila that grew fastest around 1.4 Ma. So Samoa has also lost much productivity.

      • How much are the hotspots in the western Pacific Ocean related to the Pacific-Australian plate boundary?

        • Well, all I know about that is that Samoa and Caroline may have formed from the plate boundaries in that area; the Carolines from the transform/pseudo subduction boundary between the Pacific and Caroline plates, and Samoa maybe from the Vitiaz trench, but more geochronology would be needed to ascertain this.

  21. Etna and Stromboli are very active now:
    Etna with spattering and summit lava flow, and Stromboli with a lava-landslide.
    Etna: “an intense Strombolian activity at the Voragine crater is rapidly building a new cone of scoria that has grown in a few days by several tens of meters. In addition, a lava flow can be observed coming out of an effusive vent on the eastern side of this new cone and pours southwards into the adjacent crater of Bocca Nuova, plunging into one of the wells on the bottom of the latter crater”.
    Stromboli: “there was a flow of incandescent material that rapidly propagated along the Sciara del Fuoco, reaching the coastline and propagating into the sea.”
    (Google Translation)

  22. Kilauea’s recent quakes (today a Magnitude 3.0 quake) have moved to the area between Pauahi and Mauna Ulu. Maybe we can get something like a short upper ERZ eruption close to (or even at) Mauna Ulu. There were several short eruptions in the Mauna Ulu area in the 1960s before the longterm “Mauna Ulu eruption” 1969-1974.

    • Just watched it as it happened.
      How big is it in comparison with the regular Etna eruptions?
      The magma must have been shooting up to over 200 meters.

      • I’ve seen bigger paroxysms. Since this is Voragine, I thought it could go like in 2015, but it’s weaker than then and does not seem to be ramping up.

      • 200 meters is pretty small for Etna, it is the volcano with the standing record for tallest lavafountains ever observed. Most of the 2021-2022 series got over 1 km, around half of those closer to 2. There is one fountain that is marked as over 5 km tall. That is not a typo either.

        All of those were from the SEC complex, which I think might have somewhat overtaken the old central crater which is where this fountain is, as the dominant vent for big eruptions. The 1998-1999 and 2015-2016 fountains at Voragine were very impressive, and were in fact the world records already. But dont stand anywhere near what happened in 2021. To be honest, I dont know if anything like that has happened for centuries either, theres some big events but they seem to be singular not 60 in a year…

        Etna seems to be undergoing a phase of growth, it might stay like this for decades, growing taller. SEC is only 50 years old, and nearly all of it less than 15 years old, and it is already a bona fide stratovolcano in its own right. Give it another 50 and it might be 4 km tall, or have evolved into a lava lake volcano, totally changing its hazard profile. Etna is crystal rich yet still the lava fliws easily, the melt is very low viscosity I think, if those crystals settle out…

        • The extension of the crust below Etna appears to allow a very Basaltic volcano in a geological environment of subduction in the Mediteranean Sea. It behaves like a local divergent plate boundary.

          The first pre-Etna volcanism there was Tholeiitic Basalt. Maybe the low altitude allowed a different magma to occur, while later the rising volcano changed the system towards more alkali Basalt. It’s also possible that the initial extension led to an extraordinary geological situation that allowed Tholeiitic Basalt, but later conditions worsened for this.

          • I remember Hector once talking about how the mantle under this part of the world is pretty exotic, ultra high potassium as a standard. So Etna isnt actually evolved really at all, and in fact maybe a tholeiitic composition here would be evolved instead if potassium can be selectively crystalized out the same way magnesium is at Kilauea.

            The reason Etna lava appears kind of viscous is because it is crystal rich. I remember seeing a number of over 50% crystals. Yet it is still mobile and free flowing. If Etna evolves a wide magma conduit or a shallow magma chamber large enough to let those crystals settle out then it could be as fluid as the lava at Nyiragongo but with a much greater volume available… I think something like this might have happened in the 17th century terminating with the eruption of 1669 at Monti Rossi near Nicolosi. Although that also seems to have been an eccentric eruption too to create a large cone. Maybe it cracked the side which flooded out and then kept going.

            I think maybe over the next 50 years we will see Etna evolve in that direction again. The magma supply since the 90s is very high, and there are 3 or 4 (maybe 7 depends who you ask) open conduits at its summit, with two of them doing paroxysms in the past decade, or really, the last year… give it 50 years and they might all merge, or we get a big complex of pit craters with lava lakes. Or one with a lava lake and one still fountaining, if they diverge deep enough. Its like Kilauea after 1983 starting paroxysmal, then effusive, then the magma system starts collenting into one place, and eventually it finds a place to leak out.

          • If Etna evolves a wide magma conduit or a shallow magma chamber large enough to let those crystals settle out then it could be as fluid as the lava at Nyiragongo but with a much greater volume available…

            Perhaps this is what happened at Nyiragongo itself. The huge cone it has could have come from Etna-style paroxysms before it reached that threshold, and the present ultra-fluid lakes and flows behavior developed once it did. Maybe volcanoes of this type alternate between these two phases, and Etna and Nyiragongo happen to be nearly 180 degrees out of phase.

            It would, of course, be very bad for Sicilians if Etna started doing what Nyiragongo periodically does to Goma now …

          • Seems likely that Nyiragongo had a high fountain stage. It might have ended very recently too, given that in 50 years there have been 3 lava lake drainouts and possibly nothing before that, and all 3 of these being from the same crack basically. It seems actual written documentation of Nyiragongo is very recent despite probably having people living near it since before it even existed.

            I also do wonder if Nyamuragira is truely a shield volcano or if it was a stratovolcano that has evolved into a shield. It is pretty steep near the top, and looks like Nyiragongo if you cut it off half way up. Nyamuragira has a much bigger surrounding lava field though.

          • Maybe it’s a problem of altitude. Eruptions on the summit need more gasrich magma that behaves more explosive, while low flank fissures (close to settlements) likely release more liquid degassed magma.

            Is the basalt of Etna really viscous? I’d think that it’s rather more gasrich slightly towards La Palma or Vesuvius, but still inside the realm of basalt volcanism.

          • The lava is viscous, but I think the actual liquid melt is not, its just full of crystals. It cant settle out becahse magma rises up from massive deep storage to erupt quickly. Etna has a visible caldera rim so it has had shallow magma chambers. Apparently formed in 122 BCE. But I think something a bit smaller might have formed in 1669.

            This deep magma quickly rises and that is also why it is so volatile rich. The lava erupted in the 2021 sequence was about 1150 C, 46.5% SiO2 and nearly 7% MgO, but also 40% crystals and the whole rock was close to 30% vesicular. Probably rose up from the deep source within a day. But a magma of that composition and temperature would be extremely fluid without being half full of suspended solids.

          • 122 BCE near to Italy. Seems likely there was a literate culture around, probably using Latin. Were there any contemporary written records of this event?

    • A huge controversy has erupted on the internet concerning the post of this video. One seemingly true comment is that this is a video of a coal seam fire in Australia. What I find disturbing is that the release of such videos is going to eventually lead to a world-wide government body (such as the UN) control of all videos and deeming what is real and what is not, thus begging the question of the qualifications of the censors making this determinination. To me, it seems that the release of false videos is being done in order to faciilatate a global control group over all videos on the planet, to state what is false and what is true.

      • The internet is full of rubbish. Best thing to do is to avoid spreading it and to not join the tin foil party.

      • It probably is a coal seam fire, where exactly isnt clear but it definitely ISNT in Yellowstone, you can see it just in the terrain and the plants.

        If it was volcanic there would be nothing alive near it. Cryptodomes are always scorched earth, they are lava domes that lift up some topsoil after all. Or not even always lava domes, I think basalt does similar things sometimes. And Yellowstone eruptions are always gigantic, just not always explosive. The last series was 3x the volume of Laki in rhyolitic lava flows probably erupted in a few years. The series before that was probably over twice as big. And included a VEI 7 maar eruption…

        • Chad:
          Thanks for the reply. What bothers me, is that more and more such videos are being released on YouTube. Just the other day I saw a supposed authentic video on how Grindavik was in peril. It seems that people are simply posting videos to titillate and gather an audience and following. Some of these videos are weeks old, but posted as if the news was current real time news. (NOT!!!).

          • Thank you for your submission.

            However, we already had more than enough data points to substantiate the Greater Internet F@$!wad Theory.

            We wish you all the best in your future endeavors.


      • There are some coal fires going in old mines near Kemmerer, Wyoming, USA as well. Keeps the snow off in the winter!

  23. Here’s M5+ quakes near San Francisco a few decades before and after Loma Prieta in 1989. I chose 1940 as the start date for the before period since that’s when the area was emerging from the shadow created by the 1906 M7.8 SA quake that released the entire fault zone.
    Though the Loma Prieta quake was “only” M6.9, the stress shadow is clearly evident on all the major faults that continues to this day. Given I’m a local, this trend is fascinating…and at the same time, quite worrisome.

  24. Small eq swarms under both St. Helens and Rainier. Nothing abnormal though, fortunately.

  25. Possibly some deep Pahala Tremor.
    First instance shows around 06:49 UTC

    Possible candidates for quakes

    2024-07-05 05:48:29

    Second instance may not be a Pahala quake. Starts around 22:03 and ends 22:38, possible quakes below, but a little shallow in general.

    2024-07-05 22:32:25
    2024-07-05 22:32:25

  26. Proto Pompeii.

    Ancient volcanic eruption not a catalyst for early Homo sapiens cultural innovations, researchers say (, 5 Jul)

    An international team of researchers from the Universities of Tübingen (Dr. Armando Falcucci), Siena, and Bologna analyzed the cultural remains left by groups of early Homo sapiens at Grotta di Castelcivita in southern Italy, dating back to before the major eruption known as the Campanian Ignimbrite.

    This explosive event, originating in the still-active Phlegraean Fields about 40,000 years ago, is considered the most powerful volcanic eruption ever recorded in the Mediterranean. Crucially, Grotta di Castelcivita is one of the rare archaeological sites where volcanic ash has sealed a high-resolution archaeological sequence.

    By employing a set of cutting-edge methodologies to meticulously reconstruct the methods used in crafting stone tools—the most enduring artifacts unearthed in prehistoric excavations—the researchers demonstrated that cultural development at Castelcivita predates both the deposition of the volcanic layers and the sub-contemporaneous cold climate phase known as Heinrich Stadial 4, which lasted for about 2 millennia.

    So before Campi Flegrei got all hot and bothered there was an interesting mass production going on of very small stone points (I’ve put up a photo below). That led me to try and work out what they were for. In short no one really knows, although some suggestions are that they might tip darts, and others that they might be used in saws or something like that. But they spent a lot of time making them very precisely so there was obviously an important reason for doing so.

  27. Mauna Loa GPS, showing the uplift after the last eruption


    The GPS is showing a declining curve, presently at a similar level to where it was in early-mid 2020. Declining curves like this I think are basically rapid refill to fill the low pressure, and as the pressure increases the supply rate slows. So if the uplift trend before the eruption takes over the break even might happen in about 2 years, and an eruption at some point within a few years after. Although, after recent trends I wouldnt be that surprised if the next eruption isnt for much longer too.

    I dont think the summit-flank sequence or alternation between rift zones is real. 2022 by that logic should have been a small summit eruption like in 1975. Except looking into it 1975 actually wasnt a summit only event, lava erupted only up there but a dike went down the ERZ, just not erupting low down like it did more recently. Then 1984 went down the same rift right to the end, and then 2022 was very much like 1975 but actually erupting in the lower section. I think the next eruption will be much the same if it starts in Mokuaweoweo. Eruptions on the actual SWRZ dont start in Mokuaweoweo, they start within the pit craters or directly on the rift.

    • On GVP (Bulletin Reports) you can find the historical deformation curve of the 1980s and compare it to the after 2022 development:

  28. pic post test.
    Historical quakes near the SF Bay Area prior to Loma Prieta.

    Admin: added the link without the [url[ and [img] tags

    • I find for VolcanoCafe that normal WordPress compatible html works for me, with “greater than” and “less than” rather than square brackets.

      For pictures a raw url to a .JPG, .PNG or .GIF file appears to work best. Other VC contributors probably have more tips than I though.

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