In the beginning there was sheep

Volcán de Fuego erupting stars. Photograph by NASA.

“When in doubt, data shall provide the answer!”

 

In the beginning

A decade ago to the day, the first article was published here at Volcanocafé. It was not one of the memorable ones that I remember without checking, but from humble starts came many memorable articles over the years.

Starting Volcanocafé was quite unexpected to me, it was never my intention, and never what I wanted. So, how did Volcanocafé come about? As with all great things it involved a sheep and nagging elderly English ladies.

The embryo was seeded one stormy night in Iceland during the easy to pronounce Eyjafjallajökull eruption. As we were sitting chatting and gawking at the eruption on one of the webcams a sheep came flying past the camera and passed out over the cliffside.

This image stuck with us, and we became sort of the club of the flying sheep. At the same time many of us was dissatisfied with the early volcanic blogs, mainly with the commenting sections. And during the aftermath of the eruption the elderly English ladies decided that enough was enough and elected me as the person who should write all the articles.

At this point I got the idea that I could get away from this daunting responsibility by refusing to do it alone, so I said that I would do it only if Lurking tagged along, to my utter horror he accepted to do so.

I then tried to get away by stating that I knew nothing about setting up and maintaining a forum like this, but one of the ladies then unfolded her wings and came out as a fully-fledged forum-coding-demon.

After that I was told in no uncertain terms that I had to write an article. The rest is sort of history now.

I will though say that I completely by accident got my comeback against the dear old English ladies a few years later. As most know I am not a native English writer, and sometimes upon a blue moon I miss entirely the cultural connotations of an English word.

I just never expected that canines would be one of those words fraught with peril. In an offhand sentence I wrote, “To doggedly dog where no dog has doggedly dogged before”. My intention was to point out general stubbornness, but from the shocked, giggling, and red-faced elderly ladies I kind of understood that there was something more to it.

So, I mercilessly questioned them about what it was that I had written that shocked them so much, and slowly the truth of the English national weekend pastime of “Dogging” came out into the open. In the end I just had to ask them how on earth they knew what this was… innocently asked of course.

Oh, the sheep you ask? Well, it is rather memorable to watch a flying sheep, so we made it into the Patron Sheep of Volcanocafé. Having a Patron Sheep sort of made certain that we would never take ourselves to seriously, even though we obviously took the science part seriously.

However, we never expected to see the sheep again. So, it was with utter horror we watched as Bear Grylls found the sheep in an episode of his tv-series. He then ate the rotting carcass, made a sleeping bag out of it, and then profusely vomited sheep all over.

After that the flying sheep was elevated to Martyr Patron Sheep, and nobody watched Bear Grylls again (at least I hope so).

 

The four foundations

The Flying Sheep of Iceland. Photograph by Helgastina.

From the beginning there were four things that was important to set into place. The first was that we would not enforce any out of topic rule for the comment section, as long as it was about science, we let it slide.

The reason for this is that there can be years in between interesting eruptions, and we wanted people to hang on, read articles, and generally be friends. After all, we who founded the place wanted it to be our living-room where we could discuss all sorts of topics as we pleased.

It worked as a charm. As soon as a volcano came around of importance everyone set aside the conversations and started to discuss the topic at hand.

Then we needed a rule to moderate with. We came up with a rule that both explained itself and had enough wriggle room to be useful in pretty much any circumstance, “Be Nice!”. On the few occasions that we have had to use it, we voted before banning repeat offenders.

In a world of trolls and argumentative people it is remarkable that we are still below 10 people that have been banned. This is not due to a lack of arguments, but in general people remember to argue themselves blue in an ever so polite way. We do have the best readers in so many ways (thank you).

The third thing was science above else. What we wrote should be factual and based on science and follow the data at hand. The reason back then was that we were stunned at some of the early volcano blogs playing loose with science and facts when talking about volcanoes. We wanted to be the opposing force of that.

Later came the clickbait youtubers bleating out ever weirder prophecies about ginormous volcanic eruptions. Science and facts in this day and age turned out to become ever more important, and we do our best to do our part.

So, it is with quite a bit of joy that we find that we are referenced as people try to point out those who produce hogwash. Every time I see someone referencing us as a means of stopping nonsense my heart leaps with joy.

Do get me right, there are very good Youtubers out there doing fabulous work in letting the images do the talking for them. I will especially mention Roman over at GutnTog, we have all drooled over his fabulous drone footage of Fagradalsfjall and La Palma.

Just a little while ago he emailed us and told us that he was a fan of ours since we kept to science and facts and offered us to use his drone footage (something that we will most assuredly do) and asked if we had any volcanoes in Iceland that we wanted droned to oblivion. Oh boy, do we want that!

So, hopefully there will be a bit of collaboration with Roman in the not-so-distant future with his wonderful videos, and us doing the best we can to explain what we see and how it came to be. Finally, we might have answers to our biggest riddle, Herdubreid.

And here we come to the most important thing. Nobody can do it alone. From the moment of inception I knew that I could not do it alone. We needed to be more writers than one. First of all, we all have working lives, families and so on.

Secondly, one voice will not be able to create a discussion and a foundation for scientific debate. Opposing views are important. It also forces us to do better, at least it forces me to be better.

Over the years we have had many guest writers, recurring guest writers, specialists writing about their volcanoes, and in the end a small group of staff-writers that uphold the bulk of the writing.

Let me talk about one of them. I do have a more than passing interest in the field of astrophysics, and I read a lot about astrophysics. And I noticed that a certain (back then) commenter wrote really astounding comments about volcanoes and now and then about astrophysics.

And since I am a curious person, I looked at the registration email and noticed a name out of the stary sky of astrophysics that I knew about quite well, as it happened, I had just read one of his papers.

I mentioned this to Henrik Lovén, and he had for quite some time wanted to write about exo-volcanology, so he contacted our dear Albert, and history was made. In his very unassuming and kind way Albert lifted the bar for factual correctness and showed us what a true popular science article could be.

Due to Albert, I found that I had about one week to become a far better writer than I had ever been. And I better had to have all my reasoning and facts straight, otherwise I would receive a polite professorial thumping in our backchannel.

There are also the unsung heroes who perform our daily technical maintenance, Gaz Dale, Tommy Wallace and Ingrid van der Voort. Without them the place would fall to pieces in a heartbeat, you guys are the best.

 

The New Decade Volcano Program

Out of the trio of Albert, Henrik, and I, came our claim for fame during a session of having beers together. We somehow got it into our heads that the Decade Volcano Program needed an update since it had been running for a decade.

We also felt that the volcanoes did not truly fulfil the original requirements for the decade volcano program. On top of that we wanted to update those requirements a bit.

Out of this came a monster-set of articles. To our surprise the series got wings and flew out over the world, and in many ways, it influenced how decadal volcano programs are used today.

 

My two favourite articles

Okay, who of you invented this? It gotta be one of our readers. Spike, this be you?

Even though I am happy about how the NDVP turned out, I have two other articles as my personal favourites. The second one on my list of best articles is one I wrote myself (modesty be my middle…).

It is the one about Aniakchak. It is the only time I have read everything written about a volcano to be able to write an article. But it did not end there. I also had to read a substantial amount of everything that was written about a completely different volcano to be able to write the article. And then almost everything ever written about dendrochronology during that time period.

It is probably the only article I have written that changed how we look about one of the worlds most famous eruptions. It turned out that I could link Aniakchak’s eruption to the same year as the more famous eruption of Thera.

And as I studied the ice-core data I found out that the eruption over at Aniakchak was the far larger one, and that the Minoan civilization was hit by a double-whammy-eruption.

To my sadness that article never really took off, due to its historic implications it deserved that, I guess it is a case of parents and their favourite child.

Now over to my personal favourite article of all time. One of those ideas that had turned into “truth” was that the moon and the tide causes earthquakes, eruptions, and dandruff. Almost everybody used to believe it back then.

I argued against this but did not have any hard facts to back my opinion with. Lurking decided to just go and ask the data itself a few hard questions. Without any bias he started to pound the entire dataset that he had on earthquakes to see what would drop out.

It turned into a tour-de-force of scientific “Question-data-answer”. Even the USGS nowadays link ever so often to The Moon and the Moonies-article. It has also been used by Nature as a tool for vetting an article prior to publication.

 

Our fallen comrades

I would here like to mention two people who formed Volcanocafé. The first one was one of the English Ladies. Well, except that Sissel Skramstad was Norwegian and lived in Holland. She was one of the two that set the place up from a technical standpoint and helped to run the place.

Sadly after a few years we suddenly lost her, and I lost a dear friend who I had chatted with late nights when neither of us could sleep. Without Sissel there would have been no Volcanocafé to begin with.

Then we come to irascible artillery major and world-class anglophile Henrik Lovén. If there was ever anyone who could give me a run for the money on having had a career with many twists and turns it was Henrik.

Besides a long and illustrious military career, he also did a stint as the CEO of a major league bandy club, proprietor of a gem store, and an assortment of other ventures. In the end he fought a very long and painful fight with cancer. He knew from onset that he would not stand a chance and was given 3 months to live. But he went at it like the soldier he literally was and fought back with gusto and got 3 years before the end.

He was through his life a man of grand ideas, so it should come as no surprise that he was the champion of our grandest project, the NDVP. From day one Henrik wanted to pen the final piece himself. In many ways it was his own Eulogy that he penned, it was truly glorious and true to form it was larger than life.

No jubilee would be complete without upholding the memory of our fallen comrades.

In memory of Sissel Skramstad | VolcanoCafe

Henrik Lovén 1958-2019 | VolcanoCafe

 

The future

The future of Volcanocafé is both complex and simple at the same time. All I will say is that we will not change one bit in how we strive to uphold science and data above all else. The format and the writers will change over time, and there will be changes in technology.

But I am not the one to present that. I leave the technology to one of our technology wizards in an upcoming article.

I leave the changes in content up to you dear readers. Both in regards of what we write, but I would at the same time kindly ask that you also help with content and writing, the more we are, the more fun we will all have.

After all, it is not my place, it is your place dear readers and writers. I am but the custodian of the place until it is my time to have beer again with Sissel and Henrik.

Until then, here’s for many more years of Doggedly dogging like no dog has doggedly dogged in the sulphur mines of science.

CARL REHNBERG

438 thoughts on “In the beginning there was sheep

  1. If you rewind this video you can actually see the strength of the eruption earlier this morning .

    It definitely was a sight to see.

    • Not sure I understand what you mean. The aviation color code for Hekla still looks green, but there is an ongoing exercise for Eyjafjallajökull, which is shown as red.

      • Could be a rumor that started with somebody on Twitter claiming an ‘upgrade’ of Hekla on Volcanodiscovery, whatever this would mean (new operating system?). But VD only spoke of ‘increased’ seismic activity…

          • I’m wondering about that scale. Where does 2 out of 5 end up on a scale of green, yellow, orange, red? Who sets the status code for VD?

          • I’ve never seen one on the dark red ‘major eruption’ before either.

          • Volcanodiscovery is NOT an agency, and is NOT tasked with issuing colour codes or warnings.

            Neither IMO, nor almannavarnadeild ríkislögreglustjóra has issued any warning, nor any colour code changes for aviation (that is done in association with London VAAC).

            Untill any of the competent authorities does so Volcanodiscovery should not claim untrue things.

            Heklar: Aviation Code is GREEN (Source: London VAAC)
            No other advisory issued. Source: almannavarnadeild ríkislögreglustjóra

  2. For previous discussions the highest unpressurized flights: 15 000 meters
    An oxygen mask can keep you alive there.
    But Im supprised that the pilots did not die of altitude sickness! thats much much higher than Everest. Without an oxygen mask you go unconqious very fast at 15 kilometers.
    Very extreme enviroment for an unpressurized cabin and crew

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8WDkj0ZYuiA

    • Crazy flying so high and only an oxygen mask supply to keep you alive
      15 000 meters is very much less air than even Everest summit. These are the highest unpressurized flights

      • Thank you.
        I liked watching the thick fat clouds rising into the air.
        Wonder if it is 99.99% steam and 0.01% HCl vapor, or more like 95% steam and 5% HCl?
        Just how “effective” is laze generation? I bet not that much, really…
        Might well depend on the lava’s entry temperature, which surely is way less than it was in Hawaii back in the days.
        There have even been deaths attributed to Hawaii’s laze, in 2018 IIRC.

    • I think the sound system is less than ideal, not going down to 1Hz, but note the door moving with each bang.
      (second link)

  3. Thanks for the drone videos. My son and I were tracking the fate of an old caravan that was parked in the path of the lava (south side). Last we saw a mass of lava had passed just behind it, but the caravan was untouched. I wonder if it is still there?
    I have sleepless nights fretting over that caravan…(well, not really).

  4. Clark Eligue, our man on the ground at Taal just told me that there have been 2 minor phreatomagmatic bursts this morning (local time).
    That makes for 3 phreatomagmatic detonations in as many days.

    • It’s about time somebody mentioned it…
      There is a lot more energy in the area then there was a few months ago, these eruption are very small but escalations are very likely now, with a re-pressurized Hydrothermal chamber. How likely is it that a significant volume of magma within the hydrothermal chamber?

  5. Something has kick started La Palma the earthquakes are coming every couple of minutes .

    3.1 mbLg SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 20:47:34
    10
    3.7 mbLg W VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 20:44:42
    39

    2.4 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 20:39:31
    10
    2.8 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 20:29:39

    2.6 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 20:12:28
    12

    3.0 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 20:09:50

    2.7 mbL
    N FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.ILP
    2021/11/16 20:03:25
    10

    2.7 mbLg

    N FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.ILP
    2021/11/16 19:40:58
    eleven

    2.7 mbLg

    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 19:36:37
    12

    2.4 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 19:25:24
    eleven

    2.7 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 19:22:26
    33

    2.6 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 19:08:05
    7

    3.3 mbLg SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:57:44
    35

    2.4 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:50:32
    10

    3.0 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:47:01
    eleven

    2.5 mbL
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:44:15
    10

    2.6 mbLg
    W BREÑA BAJA.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:35:42
    3. 4

    3.2 mbLg SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:31:49
    10

    2.7 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 18:28:41
    eleven

    2.8 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 18:11:47
    eleven

    2.8 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 17:37:32
    10

    2.4 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 17:26:22
    10

    2.6 mbLg
    N FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.ILP
    2021/11/16 17:05:05
    10

    2.6 mbLg
    NE FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.IL
    2021/11/16 16:57:06
    10

    3.1 mbLg N FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.ILP
    2021/11/16 15:48:52
    10
    2.5 mbLg
    SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/16 14:59:50
    eleven

    2.8 mbLg
    N FUENCALIENTE DE LA PALMA.ILP
    2021/11/16 14:29:01
    3. 4

  6. Seems to be two lava breakouts- it’s still pitch black – but at night lava that appears looks more impressive at night! The breakout seems to be at the base of the Cone! A new vent? Or a lava tube leaking lava?

  7. This morning you could still see lava actively flowing.
    There is some life in the old girl/man yet…

  8. The earthquakes are pounding the islanders they have not stopped this swarm is relentless could it be the pre cursor to another eruptive mouth opening ??

  9. In the last hour they got 8 quakes above M3…

    2021-11-17 10:03:58.7
    06min ago
    28.56 N 17.84 W 10 3.2 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 09:49:14.6
    21min ago
    28.56 N 17.84 W 12 3.2 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    F
    2021-11-17 09:42:07.3
    28min ago
    28.57 N 17.83 W 11 3.2 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 09:41:04.5
    29min ago
    28.57 N 17.84 W 11 3.1 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    F
    2021-11-17 09:39:30.8
    30min ago
    28.56 N 17.82 W 11 3.2 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 09:35:58.2
    34min ago
    28.55 N 17.85 W 10 3.0 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 09:26:21.3
    44min ago
    28.56 N 17.83 W 12 3.3 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 09:13:44.0

    1hr 08min ago
    28.56 N 17.83 W 11 3.6 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
    2021-11-17 08:47:53.3
    1hr 22min ago
    28.54 N 17.92 W 34 3.5 CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION

    • Canary volcanoes
      @VolcansCanarias
      ·
      1 hour
      The probability of new earthquakes felt intensity V and VI is maintained. Self-protection measures must be taken.

      • Eruption 08.52h Moderate emission of ash and gases. The seismic energy is increased again. Major event mag.4.7 widely felt Stable deformation.

  10. News summary,a few minutes old:
    “Between 3,000 and 3,500 tons of these emissions were recorded in the last few hours, a significant drop from 12,000 to 15,000 tons the previous day. But this downward trend remains slow, according to the experts. Volcanic tremor, on the other hand, has picked up slightly in the past 24 hours. This indicator represents the sound made by the magma flow on its way up to the surface, and any increase could mean that either there is a greater amount of magma or that it is rising faster. “We’re going to keep an eye on this over the next few days,” said Morcuende.” Guillermo Vega, El Pais.
    https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-11-17/flights-canceled-and-classes-suspended-as-la-palma-eruption-affects-air-quality.html

  11. This picture of Guatemala City with two volcanoes under the Milky Way is extremely beautiful.
    Reading about volcanoes gives another perspective to life. When reading about politics there’s a lot of nastiness and a lot of poverty.
    When studying volcanoes there is an incredible amount of beauty, mostly in the same places.

      • Aw, come on man. You’re going to toss that out there and then leave the story untold?

    • Fuego is getting seriously steep
      Soon it will collapse down in an avalanche, luckly it will flow away from wifsey as it does in general.
      I doubt Fuego will get much taller before gravity tears it down .. whats your opinion Carl?

      Fuego is ridicolusly steep now .. like a real cone .. upper parts are very narrow and steep looking

      2018 was just warning signs before the entire cone comes down I think. The Perfect Shishaldin is also steel as hell

      • Shishaldin is most perfect stratocone on the planet, steep as hell, But perhaps more stable than Fuego

      • Soon? 😡
        “If such a collapse would occur between 100 000 and 1 000 000 people will die either directly or in the aftermath depending on the exact trajectory of the collapse and the pyroclastic base surge. It is though good to remember that events like this happens about once every ten thousand years at these volcanoes. At the same time it is a stark reminder that there is a marked need for studies and more monitoring equipment to study the stability of the flanks of these volcanoes.”
        https://www.volcanocafe.org/the-new-decade-volcano-program-the-missing-volcano/

      • Probaly will slide down towards the pacific ocean
        As it did before ..

        They should put an No go zone around Fuego

  12. I could use and would like a new piece about La Palma, sort of a summary of last weeks and a prognosis for the next weeks.

  13. 4.8 mbLg W VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/17 12:33:54
    I
    35

    +info
    4.7 mbLg SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/17 12:33:35IV-V
    37

  14. Congratulations on 10 years of volcano blogging. Long may it continue.

  15. Cabildo de La Palma

    Pevolca update on Thursday, November 17:

    ➡ The emission of sulfur dioxide associated with the volcano maintains levels similar to those of the previous day, confirming its descending trend. The deformation remains stable.

    ➡ Intermediate seismicity has recorded an increase in the last few hours, although seen in the long run it can be considered a general downward trend.

    ➡ Due to air quality, it is likely that access along the southbound coast and evacuated neighborhoods will remain closed all day. Weather forecast tomorrow is expected to contribute to the dispersion of gases and particles in the area.

    ➡ The Catastrophe notifies 1,467 buildings destroyed by the coladas. Of them, 1,184 are residential use, 154 for agricultural use, 67 for industrial use, 34 for commercial use, 13 for public use and 15 for other use.

    • Poor people. I think there is fair chance that the eruption will end before December. But so much destruction, and so many people have lost their homes and livelihoods

        • That post was not nice to write but I did feel like it should be written. The world is not in a good state, but that is not always obvious. I am basically an optimist: we have major problems but they are solvable. Whether we are willing to put in the effort is a different matter. We can only bring the situation to people’s attention

          • She (Kolbert) quotes somebody (Richard Leakey) who thinks that we might become victims, but then others who are more optimistic as long as we do enough research. I just (after digging out the book) saw that the Chilean frog was not the only one.
            She also visits Kinohi from Maui who was at the time supposed to deliver some sperm, but as the crow is still extinct it might not have worked out:
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_crow

  16. Looks like in the moment it’s already extinguished and not doing anything at all, but then again, the tremor is still looking somewhat aggressive.
    Dafuq is going on??

    Is the seismicity since just about every single dike/sill internally is about to crumble?

    • Still going. Gas being pumped out, some lava spatter lofting up from the vent over at the back.
      The breeze is blowing stuff away swiftly. But it is quieter than it has been. For the moment.

      • You seem to be right, sometimes you can spot some incandescence above the freshest ash clouds, only for the blink of an eye though.

    • # ErupciónenLaPalma | Scientists have detected a noticeable change in the eruption. There is a notable increase in earthquakes at intermediate depths and a high ash emission that will be unfavorable for flights as of tomorrow, Thursday.

  17. Hmm now there’s being emitted some ash again. Weird, seems to slowly transition into stop and go mode then..?

  18. La palma, the number of earthquakes by day has overpass the maximun

    Big lava flow descend by the center lava arms

    • A close look of the central arm. Can them reach the sea and form a new fajana?

  19. Wednesday
    17.11.2021 20:11:27 63.860 -22.391 5.1 km 3.0 99.0 3.5 km NE of Grindavík

  20. I think La Palma will die off before Christmas, when it does go it goes hard, it’s already exhausted itself nearly. Must take a lot of energy to push the magma up, unless a new vent opens further towards the coast.

    Taal had 3 volcanic tremor events yesterday, another 2 phreatomagmatic bursts and averaged 12000 tonnes of SO2.
    It’s slowly getting more volatile, not quite ready to go off yet. It will, though.

    Quakes on Rejykanes seem to be migrating towards Brennisteinfjoll, there was a swarm there in 2012. Last erupted in that area between 1000-1340 AD.

    • It might be erased already in a week if decline keeps up the pace.

  21. 4.6 mbLg SW VILLA DE MAZO.ILP
    2021/11/17 21:19:49IV-V
    39

  22. This time in Tenerife…

    4.2 mbLg SW BUENAVISTA DEL NORTE.ITF
    2021/11/17 22:58:14
    5

  23. Playing catch-up here Carl. A well written tribute to the effort. As to your own declared claim to fame, I will take it with me next June with my expectations to finally walk the dome in the Santorini caldera and follow with a visit to Knossos. Perhaps to add to a conversation a little known tidbit about the fall of the bull dancers.

  24. An eruption will remove the SO2 from the magma.
    How does the SO2 get into the magma in the first place?? Which processes are generating SO2 down there, > 40 km beneath ground?

  25. Thursday
    18.11.2021 01:28:34 63.984 -21.524 7.0 km 3.3 99.0 4.3 km SW of Þrengsli

  26. Well looks like Vatnafjoll has gone back to sleep 🙁
    Hekla has also done nothing, seems everything was too shallow to affect it. Maybe being two parallel volcanoes that are oriented alogn rifts, one has the effect of keeping the other shut tight. Such a mechanism has been proposed for Kilaueas southwest rift, being pushed shut by Mauna Loa in 1974 and preventing an eruption there. Hekla might have gotten a magma supply increase around 1000 years ago which has kept it open.

    I think maybe there was a historical eruption at Vatnafjoll, in 1440 creating the lava field of Hraukahraun, but really nothing is clear on that other than said lava field is post settlement and there was apparently an eruption near Hekla in 1440. Pretty much then Vatnafjoll has had 1000 years to collect magma, which if Carl is to be believed is a lot longer than the usual time between eruptions there, so next eruption could be quite big.

    One other thing, which might be really important. Vatnafjoll has no shallow magma chamber, so eruptions will be pressure driven and probably extremely intense and fast, not like the months long eruptions from the dead zone. Basically it is an effusive eruption of VEI 4-5 effusion rate and volume. The big flows of Keldnahraun are pretty uniform, not much evidence of pahoehoe lined channels or tubes to indicate long lived use, really is just like a bigger version of the lava fields at Krafla which were observed to form in only a day or two of eruption for the most part.

    • Vatnafjoll.. eruptions must be an insane sight, since they are mostly massive blocky Aa sheets. Really really really Big lava fountains, thats edge of plinian looking etnean .. in rows kilometers long. Vatnafjoll fountains will in daylight look like a immense wall of dark tephra, perhaps even ligthing in the lava fountains.

    • Mostly dark curtains in daylight ..
      But perhaps with a pale orange core.
      If the fountains are large and dense enough, the clasts heat themselves togther, forming clastogenic flows

      Vatnafjoll haves really massive Aa flows, so it vent fast.

      Laki too haves immense Aa flows, Eldhraun Tounge haves the volume of many Holuhrauns. Formed perhaps by the violent opening the of the Laki eruption fissures. But unlike Vatnafjoll Laki was many fissure segments, and most segments where only active as single vent, still the diffirent cones in lake flowed into the same lava channels.

      Laki was almost certainly not a
      27 kilometers long hell curtain when the first eruption appeared in 1783. But we are still talking about 1000 meters tall fountains from some vents.
      But the original Laki eruption vents are buried by lava flows and later cones from the Laki eruption so perhaps we will never know how the opening really looked like.

      But the massive Aa flows in Laki suggest it vent very fast. Laki lava flows looks very marsian acually, just smaller, but looks alot like the Olympus Mons Aa tounges.

      But Vatnafjoll individual vents where perhaps much much faster than the Laki vents

      • Thing is Skaftareldar was partly driven by gravity. Whether it was a direct dike from the general area of Grimsvotn, or an intrusion from the deeper plumbing, it was still driven by gravity for the most part except at the opening of the fissures. Vatnafjoll is basically exactly the same as at Krysuvik or Svartsengi, but bigger. Deep set magma chamber (more than 10 km probably) that erupts from pressure alone, not draining from high altitude. Pretty much Vatnafjoll behaves exactly like Hekla, but it is effusive and fluid. VEI 5 intensity effusive eruption… 🙂

        Vatnafjoll probably is also much more fluid than you think. Recent basalt vents north of Hekla have abundant pahoehoe, it isnt like at Fimmvorduhals, this stuff is more like the lava on Hualalai or Nyamuragira

      • Skaftareldahraun was something between a mantle eruption and a shallow chamber drainout. Drained from the deep stoorage of Grimsvötn system

        Too deep for a caldera To form maybe, If the 3 calderas are from the 8000 years old Sakursunarvatn events

        • Seems unlikely there was no collapse at all, Grimsvotn did erupt so was connected. Might have been partial collapse, not new caldera but it seems very likely the current depth of the active caldera is a new feature. Grimsvotn erupts too often to have an unfilled 11000 year old caldera, even with a glacier over it.

        • In 1784 to 1785 a glow was seen over Grimsvötn, perhaps an eruption that lasted long enough to go effusive. Basicaly a caldera surtsey Island thats now gone. It coud also been an over – sized long lived Gjalp

    • Looking at Google Earth, Laki is mostly massive Aa lava, suggesting fast eruption rates, looks very marsian
      But There are pahoehoes too in Laki so the Aa flows where inflated by incomming lava for months, kind of like Holuhraun was from Baugur, Laki lasted many months on ”medium high” eruption rates

    • Laki in its mature stage woud perhaps look like a few Baugur and Fissure 8 s or just two, feeding channelized lava rivers down to the inflating Aa sheets.

      But the beginning of Laki was probaly quite spectacular.. but its a myth that everything of that 15 km3 came up as a single hell curtain.

      The many cones suggest months long slower emplacement after the startup
      And thats just What that pastor wrote about

    • But the Aa tounges from both Eldgja and Laki are immense”flood Aa” so Im pretty soure it was brutal during the first days of these two eruptions. Slow eruptions dont form souch immense sheets.

      Laki and Eldgja coud perhaps be like some Ionian fissure erupyions, Pillan Patera erupted 56km3 of basalt in 1997 over a few months and haves a lava flood field not unlike Laki in apparence, it was also drained from a fissure system with acossiated magma stoorage. Ionian fast lava flows seems to not go much above a few Lakis in volumes, But that moon is probaly capable of VEI 8 unseen flood basalts..

    • Spoke too soon, Chad! A mg3 earthquake at 11:41 Iceland time. 1.1 miles north of Vatnafjoll. Confirmed, too.

      • 🙂

        Of all the places for an eruption like this to happen this is probably the ‘safest’. No water around, and not near anything important nor is it likely to flow to somewhere that is. Also unlike Hekla there is not much risk of explosive eruptions. It also isnt actually that hard to get to either, basically drive right up…

        Still, erupting a few km3 of lava in as many days, those flows would move very fast, Mauna Loa might be a valid comparison here for eruption rate and fast flows. Being in front of the lava and downhill not recommended…

    • Yes as I say this now the swarm has restarted 🙂

      Now though the quakes are actually right under the mountain proper, before was more southerly. Seems to follow the orientation of the faults in the area more so than it does the fissure swarms, but maybe that is how things work deeper down.

      Quakes are all 5-9 km deep. Seems a bit shallower than before maybe…

    • Google translation from the IMO Frettir page the tweet is referring to.

      “Landslide” should be read as “inflation”.

      “”From September 18 to the present day, no lava flow has been seen from the crater in Fagrdalsfjall. Gas is still measured but in very small quantities.

      Accompanying the eruption, the land around the volcanoes probably shrinks due to magma flowing from the magma reservoir. At the end of August, it was seen on GPS meters that the subsidence was beginning to subside and from the middle of September the subsidence began to turn into a landslide. The rise is very small or only about 2 cm where it is greatest. The latest satellite data show that the landslide reaches north of Keilir south of the eruptions. Model calculations indicate that its source is at great depths and the most likely explanation is considered to be magma accumulation.

      It is not unlikely that the powerful earthquake that began at the end of September at the southern end of Keilir and lasted for about a month, is related to the landslide, although no deformation of the surface was seen in connection with the eruption, which was a sign that magma moved closer to the surface.

      Possibly a scenario that could take years or decades
      It is not uncommon for magma to accumulate under volcanic systems following eruptions. This current landslide does not have to be an indication that magma will reach the surface in the near future, and it is quite possible that this is a scenario that will take years or decades, but it is difficult to predict progress at this stage.

      Developments at Fagradalsfjall will continue to be closely monitored.””

  27. An unsual request, for my degree in theology. Does anyone on here have a detailed map of the plate boundaries, fault lines and fracture zones of Israel and the middle-east?

  28. Thursday
    18.11.2021 13:21:42 63.927 -19.653 7.8 km 3.8 99.0 1.0 km NNW of Vatnafjöll

    • Thursday
      18.11.2021 11:41:28 63.927 -19.643 8.0 km 3.3 99.0 1.1 km NNE of Vatnafjöll
      Thursday
      18.11.2021 11:41:18 63.928 -19.650 7.7 km 3.0 99.0 1.1 km N of Vatnafjöll

    • Thursday
      18.11.2021 13:33:44 63.928 -19.650 7.6 km 3.2 99.0 1.2 km N of Vatnafjöll

  29. Hot looking Hawaiian activity, clearly visible.
    The heck is this volcano doing??

      • This explains why the “vent” extinguished so quickly 😮

    • Perhaps Etnean fluid with wave sourges in the channels close to the vent, but instantlly turning into Aa almost 100 m from the vent

      But the insulated tubes lava flows have looked very smooth fluid indeed at this volcano, yet turning into Aa
      We will see If it can produce real pahoehoe at slower eruption rates

      I wonder If the Fresh Basanite have appeared yet?

      • I think it has by now.
        If not then either we are going to never see it or La Palma is going to really have a problem.
        Moreover, the rising CO2 was suggested to show that the deep fresh stuff is finally erupting.

  30. Lava keeps flowing into Halema’uma’u pit
    Mick Kalbers Latest video

    fbclid=IwAR2TgMvOoPOnDYmJj3xbFYIKFKz1Nmh7tdxSh8PrfRtZr3_XvwKc4ebW-xI

    • https://twitter.com/ita_dc/status/1461450159896813580
      Overflow in the eruption of #LaPalma
      A lava lake has formed at the intermediate emitting point between the lower mouth of lava flows and the upper crater that always emits ash.
      It has finally overflowed onto the one that casts streams to the west
      Accelerated Video x2

  31. Watching live now La Palma there is so much lightning and flashes . The sky is just bright orange and yellow and the area it covers is huge.

    • It certainly is looking “heart”warming in the sky, even now, but although I do not quite recall yesterday’s appearance the bright area may have shrunken in the mean time.

      • Apologies, I had a misorientation of the camera.
        Now I notice that it is zoomed out all the way, and half is dark only since the lava is flowing in pipes/hoses.
        Maybe the uncovered lava area hasn’t shrunken then.

  32. What a long strange trip it’s been for Carl leStrange and the rest of the rest of the motley crew.
    Here’s to another decade of wonderful news, grins, tears and especially knowledge.

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